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September 13, 2011

Index Stock Update >> Sintex Industries Viewpoint >> Ashoka Buildcon

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Sharekhan Ltd, Regd Add: 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. BSE Cash-INB011073351; F&OINF011073351; NSE INB/INF231073330; CD - INE231073330; MCX Stock Exchange: CD - INE261073330 DP: NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL233-2003; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-271-2004; PMS INP000000662; Mutual Fund: ARN 20669. Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX10080; (MCX/TCM/CORP/0425); NCDEX -00132; (NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0142)

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Sintex Industries
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Company details Price target: Market cap: 52 week high/low: NSE volume: (No of shares) BSE code: NSE code: Sharekhan code: Free float: (No of shares) Rs233 Rs3,961 cr Rs237/138 13.1 lakh 502742 SINTEX SINTEX 17.8 cr

Buy; CMP: Rs145 Key points Strong all round performance; monolithic lifted the revenue growth: On a consolidated basis, Sintex Industries (Sintex) reported a robust all round performance for FY2011 with revenue and earnings growth for the year at 35.1% and 40% respectively. The monolithic segment (a part of the building material business) continued to grow at a very brisk pace clocking an 86% yearon-year (Y-o-Y) growth. It contributed approximately 30% to the consolidated revenue for the year. The other segments (barring Zeppelin) posted a decent show as well with the custom mouldings segment growing at 26.3% year on year (YoY) and the textiles segment growing at 25.9% YoY. Margin improvement across segments resulted in blended margin improvement: Led by revenue upliftment coupled with margin expansion across the segments, the EBITDA for FY2011 grew at 38.5% on a Y-o-Y basis and the blended EBITDA margin expanded by 50bps from 18.9% in FY2010 to 19.3% in FY2011. Zero coupon FCCBs keep the consolidated debt at elevated levels: On a consolidated basis, with Rs2,774 crore of debt on the books, the overall debt equity ratio looks elevated at 1.15x and has been hovering in the band of 1.11.35x over the last five years from the time the zero coupon convertible bonds were issued. Adjusting for the foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs; which are kept in an escrow account), the leverage position is manageable at 0.64x. Working capital efficiency reflected in the free cash position: The working capital cycle improved considerably from 155 days in FY2010 to 103 days in FY2011, largely due to a strong execution coming from the monolithic business and a reduction in the debtors days (from 58 days to 45 days) coupled with reduction in loans and advances (down from 46 days to 42 days). Driven by efficiency coming from the working capital front, the free cash for the year came marginally positive at Rs49 crore. Return ratios improved: The strong growth in the earnings (40% YoY) and an improved working capital mix got translated into improved return metrics. The
Valuation table

Shareholding pattern
Public & Others 11% Foreign 38% Promoters 35% Non-promoter corporate 10% Institutions 6%

Price chart
250 225 200 175 150 125 Mar-11 Dec-10 Jun-11 Sep-10 Sep-11

Particulars Net sales (Rs cr) Net profit (Rs cr) EPS(Rs) % YoY growth PER (x) P/B (x) EV/EBIDTA RoCE (%) RoNW (%)

FY09 3,135.6 329.2 10.6 42.2 16.2 2.3 8.4 11.8 19.1

FY10 3,319.2 329.1 10.6 0.0 16.2 2.0 9.0 10.1 16.9

FY11 4,483.5 460.5 14.9 39.9 11.6 1.7 6.6 13.1 19.2

FY12E 5,569.9 566.8 18.3 23.1 9.4 1.3 5.5 14.2 19.2

FY13E 6,684.1 687.4 22.2 21.3 7.7 1.1 4.6 14.9 18.9

Price performance (%) Absolute 1m 3m 6m 12m -1.4 -23.2 7.3 -13.8

-4.1 -17.6 -9.2

Relative -2.3 to Sensex

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return on capital employed (RoCE) and return on equity (RoE) for the year stood at 13.1% and 19.2% respectively. We remain bullish: Looking at Q1FY2012 results, wherein the first quarter is seasonally a lean period, the monolithic business of Sintex continued to post a robust show on both, the execution and order inflow fronts. For the quarter, the incremental order inflow stood at about Rs375 crore with the total order book at Rs3,200 crore (2.3x its FY2011 monolithic revenue). This trend of execution, the new order momentum as well as the margin profile continue to provide us comfort on the revenue and profitability of the company. Further, the composite business is also on a strong footing, with new synergistic benefits taking shape in the form of margin expansion and new client additions. Post Q1FY2012 results and an encouraging management commentary, we maintain our estimates, rating and price target for the stock. We have a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of Rs233. At our price target the stock trades at 10.5x its FY2013E fully diluted earnings per share (EPS) of Rs22.2. Strong revenue performance largely led by monolithic business On a consolidated basis, Sintex reported a robust revenue growth at 35.1%. The monolithic segment (a part of the building material business) continued to grow at a very brisk pace clocking a growth of 86% YoY and for the year it contributed approximately 30% to the consolidated revenue. The other segments (barring Zeppelin) posted a decent show as well with the custom moulding segment growing at 26.3% YoY and the textiles segment growing at 25.9% YoY.
Revenue performance
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 % grow th FY11 Revenue 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0%

The monolithic team delivered a number of projects in 2010-11; the prestigious among them being the government-funded Delhi low-cost housing project. More importantly, the company made in-roads into new geographies namely Pune, Pondicherry, parts of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh in 2010-11. The company received a large low-cost housing project near Lucknow. It is also moving up the value chain in a number of ways which are listed as follows: Undertaking housing projects for the middle-income group and high-income group. Increasing its exposure to housing projects from housing boards, defense, police and the private sector. Increasing its business volume by undertaking G+7 housing projects as against G+4 projects built earlier, thus highlighting its strengthening execution capabilities. Durha acquisition strengthened the execution capability During the year Sintex entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a 30% minority stake in a privately held construction company called Durha Construction Ltd (Durha) engaged in civil and power projects. Sintex paid Rs42 crore for the 30% stake (combination of new issue + stake sale by the promoter), valuing the company attractively at 4.6x its FY2010 enterprise value (EV)/ earnings before interest, tax (EBIT). We believe that the companys acquisition of Durha will significantly strengthen its realty development capabilities and will allow it to establish a meaningful presence in other infrastructural projects.

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Strong order book Despite the strong execution, the order book position still remains strong. The companys order book swelled between the end of 2009-10 and the end of 2010-11. It currently stands at Rs3,200 crore (2.3x FY2011 monolithic revenue) reflecting the increasing acceptance of the companys pioneering technology by a larger section of decision makers. Further the company is working to emerge as a real estate developer, constructing houses on its own land in Rajasthana first-time initiative for the companyenabling it to chart new business models, leveraging the enactment of the new housing policy in the state. Additionally, it is also in the process of exploring different business models such as foraying into joint development agreements.
Monolithic business performance
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 210 452 720 1,338

Debt equity remains at elevated levels at 1.15x due to zero coupon FCCBs
1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

...looks manageable sans the FCCBs at 0.64x


0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Free cash breakeven seen in the year Cash flow statement FY07 133.0 42.0 FY08 234.0 76.5 35 175.0 345.1 (152) (560) (94) 343 359 (832) (592) Net profit

Rs (cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 325.1 329.3 460.5 114.4 144.5 149.1 35 27 80 474.6 501.0 689.8 (75) (16) (206) (42) (28) (658) (549) 36 (203) (448) (116) (18) (179) (426) (36) (411) 301 263 12 (770) 49

Performance of other divisions (%) Growth rates across three years Pre-fab/Building material Custom molding Textiles FY08 44.7 39.3 15.1 FY09 40.8 45.2 11.9 FY10 43.6 44.9 10.4 FY11 48.2 42.1 9.7

Add: Non-cash charge Depreciation Deferred tax Cash profit Changes in working capital Inc/dec in inventory Inc/dec in debtors Inc/dec in loans & advances Inc/dec in current liabilities Inc/dec in provisions Cash flow from operations Capex Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF)

EBITDA grew by 38.5% on a Y-o-Y basis led by improving margin from across segments
1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 FY07 FY08 EBITDA FY09 FY10 FY11 EBITDA margin (%) 21.5% 21.0% 20.5% 20.0% 19.5% 19.0% 18.5% 18.0% 17.5%

- 240.2

108.2(247.0) 818.9

Led by improvement in the working capital cycle during the year The working capital cycle improved considerably from 155 days in FY2010 to 103 days in FY2011, largely due to strong execution coming from the monolithic business and

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a reduction in the loans and advances. The management further believes that still some efficiency in the working capital can be achieved, though owing to the increasing contribution of the government led monolithic business, we see limited improvement on the working capital front.
Working capital cycle
180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 40.2 122.0 102.0 155.7

both, the execution and order inflow fronts. For the quarter, the incremental order inflow stood at about Rs375 crore, with the total order book at Rs3,200 crore (2.3x its FY2011 monolithic revenue). This trend of execution, new order momentum as well as margin profile continues to provide us comfort on the revenue and profitability fronts. Further, the composite business is also on a strong footing, with new synergistic benefits taking shape in the form of margin expansion and new client additions. PostQ1FY2012 results and an encouraging management commentary, we maintain our estimates, rating and price target for the stock. We have a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of Rs233. At our price target the stock trades at 10.5x its FY2013E fully diluted EPS of Rs22.2. Company description Sintex was incorporated in the year 1931 as The Bharat Vijay Mills Ltd. It was only in 1995 that it was renamed as Sintex Industries. Sintex is one of the leading providers of plastics and niche textile-related products in India. During 2007-08, the company earned the status of a super brand for the first time, reinforcing its stakeholders trust in its brand. Segments The company is organised into two main business segments viz textiles and plastics. In the textile division, the company manufactures high-value yarn-dyed structured fabrics, corduroy and items relating to home textiles. The plastics segment comprises of the custom moulding and the building material segments. In the custom moulding business the company manufactures industrial custom moulded products, consumer custom moulded products and interiors products. The building segment comprises of monolithic housing solutions (the company has designed it for low cost and mass housing needs), prefabricated structures (classrooms etc), liquid management solutions and waste management systems. Located in... The company has eight manufacturing facilities in India. The company is present at 14 locations in India with its head office being in Kalol, Gujarat. They also have a strong presence in the European, American, African, and Asian markets.

Returns ratio improved


25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% FY 07 FY 08 RoE FY 09 FY 10 RoCE FY 11

Other strategic developments in 2010-11 Sintex acquired the remaining 17% stake in Wausaukee Composites Inc to make it a 100% subsidiary of itself, thus enabling the company to take aggressive steps for expanding business operations to capitalise on opportunities. The company created a new business vertical in the infrastructure segment for undertaking large water distribution and liquid waste management projects. The company initiated capital-intensive projects setting up new manufacturing facilities on a pan-India basis to strengthen product availability, market share and profitability. Valuation and view Looking at the Q1FY2012 results of the company wherein the first quarter is a seasonally lean period, the monolithic business continued to post a robust show on

The author doesnt hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in the article.

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September 13, 2011

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Ashoka Buildcon
Viewpoint

An experienced road BOT player


Early entrant into road BOT segment with significant presence Ashoka Buildcon Ltd (ABL) is one of the very few companies to have entered the road build-operatetransfer (BOT) space way back in 1997 by bagging its first project worth Rs5.80 crore. Since then the company has honed its expertise across the entire lifecycle of a BOT project. Till date the company has completed a total of 21 road BOT projects (covering 1,941 lanes kilometre) out of which 18 are operational; these also include six foot-over bridges across Mumbai where the company earns revenue by letting out advertisement space on hire on the bridges. The remaining three have been transferred back to the government after experiencing the full concession period. In addition, there are six projects (approximately 2,860 lane kilometre) under construction currently.
One of the large players
10000 9000 8000

CMP: Rs260

about 7,300 kilometre of roads in this fiscal (of which nearly 80% projects are worth less than Rs1,500 crore) we expect ABL to bag a good chunk of the projects. Along with healthy EPC order book The companys core strength lies in the efficient execution of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects which are mainly in-house construction work related to the BOT assets. Further, the company has also recently forayed into the power segment where it currently has EPC orders worth Rs297 crore. ABLs order book stands strong at Rs4,367 crore (roads: Rs4,100 crore and power: Rs267 crore), which is 3.6x its FY2011 standalone revenue. From a strategic point of view the company has 15 ready mix concrete (RMC) plants of which ten are for captive consumption and five are deployed for commercial use. Equity commitment of Rs900 crore to be part funded by unlocking value at SPV level Over the next 2.0-2.5 years the company has an equity commitment of Rs900 crore which it plans to fund through internal accruals, toll revenue and nearly Rs100-150 crore via securitisation at the special purpose vehicle (SPV) level. Even in the past the company has managed to securitise its operational assets to nearly 1.2-1.8 times the project cost, so we think that raising equity at SPV level via refinancing would not be a problem for the
Valuation table Particulars Sales (Rs cr) % YoY growth % YoY growth Shares in issue (Cr) EPS (Rs) % YoY growth PER (x) Book value (Rs) P/BV (Rs) RoCE (%) RoNW (%) FY09 518.4 60.6 5.2 4.6 7.6 5.2 34.5 334.3 3.6 11.8 11.0 FY10 795.6 53.5 80.4 130.8 4.6 17.6 130.8 14.9 449.9 2.7 12.1 20.5 FY11 1302.0 63.7 100.8 25.4 5.3 19.1 8.8 13.7 882.5 1.6 11.0 15.1 FY12E 1862.3 43.0 151.2 50.1 5.3 28.7 50.1 9.1 1033.7 1.3 12.7 15.8 FY13E 2352.5 26.3 195.5 29.3 5.3 37.1 29.3 7.1 1229.3 1.1 11.0 17.3

Lane KM

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 IRB Total project length ITNL Co's share ABL

Enjoys well diversified portfolio The roads portfolio of the company is well diversified and spread across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, West Bengal and Orissa. Interestingly, it is the largest BOT player on National Highway (NH) 6 (Surat-Kolkata) with 1,745 lane kilometre and has over 57% PPP market share over the same. The company has now increased its focus on projects of up to Rs1,500 crore after gaining experience on large projects in consortium with large players. Recently it bagged its first large project, viz. Dhankuni-Kharagpur project worth Rs2,200 crore where it owns full 100%. With the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) planning to award

Adj. net profit (Rs cr) 34.8

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company. Of the Rs900 crore equity commitment, Rs300 crore is towards the Dhankuni project. The remaining Rs600 crore is towards assets under construction like the Sambalpur-Baragarh road where the mobilisation work has commenced and the Pimpalgaon-Nashik-Gonde where nearly 45% of work has been done. Displayed healthy performance in Q1FY2012 ABL reported a good set of numbers for Q1FY2012 with sales growing by 39% year on year (YoY) to Rs388.4 crore and the profit after tax (PAT) growing by 13.3% YoY to Rs32.3 crore. The robust performance was on the back of Details of projects
Operational projects No Name of projects Lane KM

better EPC revenues at Rs302.2 crore against Rs207.5 crore in Q1FY2011, up 34% YoY. The BOT segment, on the other hand, grew by 41% YoY mainly due to the inclusion of the Bhandara project and the 5-7% increase in traffic across the operational assets. The operating profit margin (OPM) stood strong at 23.5%, though it was down 70 basis points YoY mainly due to an increase in the share of revenue from the EPC segment which has lower margin as compared to the BOT segment. The PAT, however, was dented and could not sustain the robust growth reflected by the top line due to a sharp increase of nearly 82% YoY in the interest cost.

Stake (%)

Project cost Rs (cr) 165.3 161 102.7 70.9 61.3 50.4 40.9 14.7 14.2 5.8 535 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 7.4 1233.4

Toll collection began In phases from 2002 to 2004 Jul-05 May-08 Feb-08 May-04 Aug-99 Mar-01 Jul-00 Oct-00 Mar-98 oct-10 Jan-03 Apr-02 May-03 Jul-03 Feb-03 Jul-02 Mar-04

Concession period expires Apr-17 Oct-15 Sep-16 Sep-18 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-18 Nov-10 Jul-15 Jan-11 Mar-28 Aug-12 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-13 Aug-13 May-17

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Indore- Edalabad road Pune-Shirur Ahemednagar-Aurangabad Road Katni Bypass Dewas Bypass Ahemednagar-Karmala Road Wainganga Bridge Nashirabad Railway Over-bridge Sheri Nallah

406 216 168 35 40 160 26 8 7 12 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 22 1100

86.7 100.0 100.0 99.9 100.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 51.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

10 Dhule Bypass 11 NH-6 Bhandara Road 12 Foot-over bridge in Mumbai (Priyadarshani) 13 Foot-over bridge in Mumbai (Godrej) 14 Foot-over bridge in Mumbai (Pravin Hotel) 15 Foot-over bridge in Mumbai (Tagore Nagar) 16 Foot-over bridge in Mumbai (Louis Wadi) 17 Foot-over bridge in Mumbai (Mental Hospital) 18 Anawali-Kasegaon Road Total Non-operational project portfolio No Name of projects 1 Dhankuni - Kharagpur 2 3 4 5 6 NH-6 Durg Bypass Jaora-Nayagaon Road NH-3 Pimalgaon-Nashik NH-4 Belagaum-Dharwad Road NH-6 Sambalpur-Baragarh Road Total

Lane KM 111 332 319 452 454 408 2076

Stake (%) 100.0 51.0 15.0 26.0 100.0 100.0

Project cost Rs (cr) 2200 587 818 1407 630 1008 6650

Toll Start NA Sept-11 Sept-11 Jul-12 Partly started May-11 Jul-13

Concession period expires NA Mar-28 Feb-33 Jan-29 30 yr from Dec-2010 30 yr from Dec-2010

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Robust guidance by the management The management has guided the EPC business to grow at a robust rate of 30-35%. The robust order book of Rs4,367 crore coupled with the commencement of construction work on the Sambalpur-Baragarh and Belgaum-Dharwad roads will drive the revenues for the EPC segment. On the toll revenue side, the management expects toll collection to the extent of Rs240 crore in FY2012. The guidance is appropriately backed by toll collections from the Durg and JaoraNayagaon (the third section) assets where the construction is almost complete and the roads are expected to start generating toll revenue by the end of Q3FY2012. Also the Bhandara project has started collecting toll since Q3FY2011. Further impetus to toll revenue will be provided by the BelgaumDharwad asset where tolling has begun since May 4, 2011. In addition, the company has signed a concession agreement for the Dhankuni-Kharagpur project (cost estimated at Rs2,200 crore) and the financial closure is expected to be complete by Q3FY2012 after which it would commence toll collection along with the construction work.

Outlook ABL is one of the few players to have experienced the full life cycle of a road BOT project. Further, it has witnessed an impressive growth rate both in terms of revenue and net profit over the past few years. Its revenue and PAT grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59% and 45% respectively over FY2008-11. With 18 projects already operational and two more to get operational in this fiscal, there is good revenue visibility in terms of toll revenue. Moreover, its strong order book position provides strong revenue visibility for its EPC segment in the coming years. ABL being one of the major toll players is set to benefit from the tremendous opportunity available in the road sector. Based on our rough estimates, we expect its revenue and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 34% and 40% respectively. However, at the current market price it looks almost fairly valued as it trades at 1.3x and 1.1x its FY2012 and FY2013 book value respectively and 9x and 7x its FY2012 and FY2013 earnings respectively.

The author doesnt hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in the article.

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September 13, 2011

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