The Republic of Argentina Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'CCC+/C' On Increasing Legal Risks Outlook Negative

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Research Update:

The Republic Of Argentina Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'CCC+/C' On Increasing Legal Risks; Outlook Negative
Primary Credit Analyst: Sebastian Briozzo, Buenos Aires (54) 114-891-2120; sebastian.briozzo@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contact: John B Chambers, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-7344; john.chambers@standardandpoors.com

Table Of Contents
Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Key Statistics Related Criteria And Research Ratings List

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Research Update:

The Republic Of Argentina Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'CCC+/C' On Increasing Legal Risks; Outlook Negative
Overview
On Aug. 23, 2013, the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the ruling of a District Court in New York in the case against the Republic of Argentina that would require Argentina to make payments to bondholders of its defaulted debt. At the same time, the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals kept the stay order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. We are lowering our unsolicited long-term ratings on Argentina to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. The outlook is negative, reflecting our view of the increased risks to debt service from these legal proceedings.

Rating Action
On Sept. 10, 2013, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its unsolicited long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Argentina (Argentina) to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. At the same time, we lowered our unsolicited short-term ratings on Argentina to 'C' from 'B'. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. We are also revising our transfer and convertibility assessment on Argentina to 'CCC+' from 'B-'.

Rationale
We are lowering our ratings on Argentina because of increased risks to debt service stemming from a lawsuit over the debt the government of Argentina still maintains in default. The lawsuit could result in the interruption of payments on bonds currently under New York jurisdiction, or it could prompt Argentina to undertake a debt exchange that we could view as distressed. Under our criteria, those outcomes would lead us to lower our rating on Argentina to 'SD' for selective default. Although neither outcome is certain, we believe that there is at least a one-in-three chance of either occurring within the coming 12 months. On Aug. 23, the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the ruling of a District Court in New York in favor of the plaintiffs in the case NML Capital Ltd. et al v. the Republic of Argentina. The plaintiffs are bondholders who did not participate in the 2005 and 2010 debt exchanges and who have sought to block payments to bondholders who did participate until they obtain

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Research Update: The Republic Of Argentina Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'CCC+/C' On Increasing Legal Risks; Outlook Negative

satisfaction of their claims for full payment. However, the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals also decided to keep a previously granted stay order, pending an appeal filed by Argentina with the U.S. Supreme Court. It is uncertain if the U.S. Supreme Court will accept the case and, if it does, when it would hand down its ruling. If the U.S. Supreme Court does not grant the appeal or if it eventually rules against Argentina, Argentina's ability to service its debt from the 2005 and 2010 exchange would be compromised. We believe Argentina will strive to remain current on its debt while the judicial process plays out, notwithstanding a decreasing level of international reserves, limited access to funding, and growing macroeconomic imbalances, in particular high inflation and a dual foreign exchange system. For example, Argentina's president announced on Aug. 26, 2013, that the government was considering tendering for the 2005 and 2010 restructured bonds in an exchange that could replicate tenor, amount, and coupon but change the governing law and jurisdiction of payment to Argentina. However, enabling legislation for such an exchange has not been submitted to the National Assembly. A proposal of alternative payment arrangements that, in our view, materially alter the terms of its bond indentures to the detriment of creditors could prompt another downgrade. In addition to lowering our rating, we have revised our transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment for Argentina. Argentina already makes use of a range of exchange controls, and there is a wide disparity between the official and parallel market exchange rate. Our 'CCC+' T&C assessment reflects the risk that Argentina's government could tighten further its exchange control regime to the extent that the ability of the private sector to service its foreign currency debt becomes impaired.

Outlook
We could lower our rating on Argentina if we perceive legal risks to its debt servicing have increased or have become more imminent. Among other developments, a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court not to hear the appeal or the implementation of an exchange proposal that makes alternative payment arrangements that, in our view, materially alter the terms of its bond indentures to the detriment of creditors could prompt a downgrade. On the other hand, if the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear the case or if we perceived the legal risks had moderated, the ratings could stabilize.

Key Statistics
Republic of Argentina--Selected Indicators
2006 Nominal GDP (bil. US $) GDP per capita (US $) Real GDP (% change) 214.27 5,498.28 8.47 2007 262.46 6,668.78 8.65 2008 328.15 8,256.17 6.76 2009 308.74 7,706.95 0.85 2010 370.26 9,138.01 9.16 2011 448.17 10,957.69 8.87 2012 477.02 11,555.47 1.90 2013e 489.89 11,749.68 2.00 2014f 526.47 12,501.99 2.50 2015f 608.07 14,296.83 2.50

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Research Update: The Republic Of Argentina Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'CCC+/C' On Increasing Legal Risks; Outlook Negative

Republic of Argentina--Selected Indicators (cont.)


Real GDP per capita (% change) Change in general government debt (% of GDP) General government balance (% of GDP) General government debt/GDP (%) Net general government debt/ GDP (%) General government interest expenditure/revenues (%) Other dc claims on resident nongovernment sector/GDP (%) CPI growth (%)* Gross external financing needs/CAR + usable reserves (%) Current account balance/GDP (%) Current account balance/CARs (%) Narrow net external debt/CARs (%) Net external liabilities/CARs (%) 7.41 4.46 7.59 4.48 5.71 4.79 0.06 5.10 7.92 6.60 7.86 7.22 0.96 3.49 0.99 8.39 1.49 4.60 1.49 3.67

1.41 68.09 63.80 6.92

0.61 59.33 55.90 7.69

(0.11) 51.51 46.52 7.07

(1.89) 51.49 46.96 7.11

(0.71) 47.49 41.47 5.12

(3.28) 44.41 40.39 6.56

(3.32) 41.29 38.48 5.87

(3.32) 40.40 38.96 5.73

(2.67) 35.20 34.41 4.99

(2.02) 30.33 29.73 4.30

12.72

14.02

13.23

13.12

14.25

16.07

17.94

17.94

17.94

17.94

5.37 76.98

8.83 80.03

8.58 74.85

6.30 66.54

10.90 74.52

9.50 77.15

10.80 80.88

27.00 82.83

30.00 84.73

30.00 88.64

3.63 12.82 98.31 (29.26)

2.83 10.14 72.90 (37.96)

1.99 7.42 52.43 (37.73)

3.56 15.09 54.95 (66.47)

0.39 1.66 51.35 (53.64)

(0.35) (1.49) 51.82 (47.51)

0.10 0.47 54.42 (58.71)

(0.36) (1.72) 57.35 (57.92)

(0.48) (2.44) 56.79 (57.76)

(0.04) (0.23) 55.93 (60.06)

*Official index provided by the INDEC used for actual data. Private consultants estimated inflation within a range of 19%-25% for 2007 and 2012. Other depository corporations (dc) are financial corporations (other than the central bank) whose liabilities are included in the national definition of broad money. Gross external financing needs are defined as current account payments plus short-term external debt at the end of the prior year plus nonresident deposits at the end of the prior year plus long-term external debt maturing within the year. Narrow net external debt is defined as the stock of foreign and local currency public- and private-sector borrowings from nonresidents minus official reserves minus public-sector liquid assets held by nonresidents minus financial sector loans to, deposits with, or investments in nonresident entities. A negative number indicates net external lending. CARs--Current account receipts. The data and ratios above result from Standard & Poors own calculations, drawing on national as well as international sources, reflecting Standard & Poors independent view on the timeliness, coverage, accuracy, credibility, and usability of available information. e--Estimate. f--Forecast.

Related Criteria And Research


Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions, June 24, 2013 Methodology For Linking Short-Term And Long-Term Ratings For Corporate, Insurance, And Sovereign Issuers, May 7, 2013 The Republic Of Argentina Unsolicited 'B-' Rating Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative, April 11, 2013 FAQ: What Are The Implications Of The U.S. Court Of Appeals' Ruling On Standard & Poor's Sovereign Rating On Argentina?, Nov. 30, 2012 Criteria For Assigning 'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings, Oct. 1, 2012 Financial Repression Would Hurt The Highest-Rated Sovereigns, But Help Those At the Bottom, Aug. 30, 2012

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Research Update: The Republic Of Argentina Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'CCC+/C' On Increasing Legal Risks; Outlook Negative Distressed Sovereign Debt Exchanges: Examples From The Past And Lessons For The Future, June 28, 2011 Criteria For Determining Transfer And Convertibility Assessments, May 18, 2009 Rating Implications Of Exchange Offers And Similar Restructurings, Update, May 12, 2009

In accordance with our relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology applicable (see 'Related Criteria And Research'). At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to make an informed decision. After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts. The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook.

Ratings List
Downgraded To Argentina (Republic of) (Unsolicited Ratings) Sovereign Credit Rating CCC+/Negative/C Transfer & Convertibility Assessment CCC+ From B-/Negative/B B-

This unsolicited rating(s) was initiated by Standard & Poor's. It may be based solely on publicly available information and may or may not involve the participation of the issuer. Standard & Poor's has used information from sources believed to be reliable based on standards established in our Credit Ratings Information and Data Policy but does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information used. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at www.spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column.

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