Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Forward Markets Commission brought under FinMin control
The commodity forward trading regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) will now be under the administrative control of the Finance Ministry. With this, all financial sector regulators have been brought under one umbrella. This move aims at better co-ordination among regulators to resolve the on-going National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL) crisis and to chart out the future course of action to ensure that such a crisis does not re-occur, a senior Finance Ministry official said. NSEL used to offer spot contracts in commodities before its operations were shut down after the Rs 5,600-crore payment crisis erupted in July this year. NSEL was not under any regulator. But, after the payment crisis, FMC was empowered to supervise settlements and issue binding orders. Also, a Committee under the Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram was set up to give suggestions. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Sept 10, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19997 5897 63.85 107.39 1364.1

3.77 3.81 -2.15 -1.94 -1.64

9.67 10.40 -5.60 -1.06 -3.39

6.43 5.95 5.13 3.86 4.07

12.55 9.94 15.15 11.24 -21.09

.Source: Reuters

Brazilian mills' sugar, ethanol output up in late August

Cane mills in center-south Brazil increased their output of sugar and ethanol in the last two weeks of August from the first half of the month, as they operated near full capacity despite some wet weather. Mills favored ethanol, allocating 51.37 percent of cane processed to the biofuel. Sugar output rose 2.91 percent from the first half of August to 3.2 million tonnes and ethanol surged nearly 10 percent in the period because of high domestic demand, local industry association Unica said on Tuesday. Sugar output was down 3.74 percent from the same two weeks a year earlier, however, when mills were favoring sugar. Production of ethanol increased by 8.3 percent from a year ago. Sales of ethanol in Brazil's center-south in August were up 21.4 percent from the same month in 2012 as prices for the biofuel remained well below normal gasoline prices in most states. Brazilian mills crushed 48.54 million tonnes of cane in the second half of August. Unica said they were operating at almost full capacity even though the normally dry season has been wetter than usual. (Source: Reuters)

Tenders soon for wheat exports from Central pool

State-run entities such as MMTC, STC and PEC will soon start floating tenders to export about two million tonnes of wheat stored by the Food Corporation of India. Wheat stored in FCI godowns under the Central pool in Kakinada, Mundra and Kandla ports will be shipped out by March 2014, an official said. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs had cleared the export of two million tonnes of wheat last month. Buoyed by the earlier response, the Government is expected to retain the floor price at $300 a tonne to test the market response. However, the prevailing global prices are lower by 20-30 per cent for wheat of comparable quality originating from Black Sea countries such as Ukraine and Russia. The Black Sea origin wheat for feed purpose is quoting at $230 a tonne, while the milling variety is fetching $240 a tonne free-on-board, an analyst said. For 2012-13, 4.24 million tonnes of wheat were exported from the Government stocks and the average realised price was $311.38 a tonne.
(Source: Business Line)

ICE cotton up on demand expectations for top consumer China

Cotton futures rose the most in over three weeks on Tuesday as China began stockpiling this week and on expectations Thursday's monthly U.S. government forecast would show continued strong demand in the world's top consumer. It was second-month contract's biggest daily gain since mid-August, when speculators began exiting the market in droves and sent prices tumbling from a five-month peak. Prices have clawed back some of the losses over the last three sessions, as China this week began stockpiling cotton from the 2013 crop and dealers positioned themselves ahead of the monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report. (Source: Reuters)

Vegetable oil refineries seek protection from rising imports

The share of refined oil in overall vegetable oil import seems likely to hit a new high of 40 per cent this oil year (November 2012 October 2013), dismaying domestic refiners. The major reason is an inverse duty structure in major exporting countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, coupled with narrowing import duty differential between crude and refined oil. Import of refined oil (termed refined, bleached and deodorised or RBD oil) jumped to 22 per cent of the total between November 2012 and July 2013 at 1.8 million tonnes, as compared to 19 per cent or 1.3 mt in the same period of the previous year. Import of crude palm oil was 6.06 mt in the same period as against 5.8 mt in the same period of the previous year. (Source: Business Standard)

Pepper falls on liquidation

Pepper futures witnessed a sharp fall as the running contract is nearing maturity. The spot market remained steady despite selling pressure on good buying support. There was reportedly good selling pressure from Kerala's plains, probably for money needed for meeting the Onam festival expenses, and low bulk density pepper of 490GL to 525 GL, with high moisture content, was being traded at Rs 409 a kg. Much of the domestic demand was met by direct supplies from Karnataka at Rs 400 delivered at the doorsteps of the buyer anywhere in India on cash and carry basis, market sources said. The domestic demand for the winter season is expected to pick up from now onwards after the Vinayaka Chathurti, they said. On the spot, 42 tonnes of farm grade pepper arrived and 45 tonnes of the material were traded at Rs 409-415 a kg depending upon the quality, they said. On the NMCE, Sep and Oct contracts fell sharply by Rs 1,092 and Rs 964 respectively to Rs 43,500 and Rs 44,502 a quintal. (Source: Business Line)

Weaker currency, govt policy slow Indonesia soybean imports

A falling rupiah, rising international soybean prices and a backfiring policy on food self-sufficiency have combined to drive up the cost of one of Indonesia's favourite staple foods and sparked artisan food makers to down tools in protest. Indonesia's soybean imports, which account for 70 to 80 percent of its total demand, have slowed due to changes in government policy that have left importers unsure about where they stand and drained stock levels. Inventories of the oilseed in the Southeast Asian country are now at multi-year lows of 315,000 tonnes, traders and government officials say, with domestic prices at 10,665 rupiah ($0.96) per kg, compared with 9,285 rupiah in January. (Source:
Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded downwards on Tuesday amid dull trading activity. Weaker than expected demand coupled with higher supplies have pressurized prices. Also prospects of higher sowing amid good rains in the chana growing regions added to the downside pressure. However, expectations of a pickup in demand due to the festive season limited sharp decline in the prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.59% and 1.96% lower on Tuesday. As per a circular by NCDEX dated August 21 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in Chana with effect from beginning of day Friday, August 23, 2013. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif th Pulses stood at 102.93 lakh ha as on 6 September 2013, up by 5.35 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. Pulses sowing in Gujarat as on 2 Sept was seen on 4.83 la ha, up by 31% compared to the same period last year. Also, sowing of kharif pulses in th Rajasthan as on 26 August was seen 22.68 lakh ha, up by 20% compared to the corresponding period last year.
nd

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Sept 10, 2013 % change Last 3100 2995 Prev day -1.59 -1.96 WoW -3.88 -5.31 MoM 8.77 9.99
Source: Reuters

YoY -34.61 -36.34

Spread Matrix
Closing 3100 2995 3092 3157 20-Sep-13 -105 0 -

as on Sept 10, 2013 18-Oct-13 -8 97 0 20-Nov-13 57 162 65 0 as on Sept 06, 2013 Stocks as on 3 Sept 46499 53212 10981 110692
rd

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 6 Sept 45605 53893 10732 109230
th

Demand supply scenario

After producing record 18.45 mn tn Pulses, India is set to produce record crop for second year in row in 2013-14 as sowing during the ongoing kharif season is excellent propelled by good rains. Also, favorable soil moisture level has made ground for bumper Rabi harvest too. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the previous year. However, imports may drop in 2013-14 season on expectations of higher output. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana during 2012-13. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output was pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.

Qty in Process 160 30 70 260

Qty in Process 160 30 70 260

309

111

938

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana futures are expected to trade on a negative note today extending previous days losses. Adequate stock positions, higher kharif pulses sowing and expectations of a better rabi sowing due to good rains in the chana producing regions may pressurize prices. However, expectations of pickup in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Oct Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Sept 11, 2013 Resistance 3130-3160

3030-3060

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures declined sharply on Tuesday on expectations of new season arrivals to commence in the coming days coupled a sharp appreciation in the Rupee. Expectations of commencement of the US soy in the coming days also kept prices under check. The spot settled as well as the Futures settled 1.54% and 3.25% lower. In the domestic markets, although area under soybean this season is at record level, concerns over output remain due to excessive rains over the last few weeks which have obstructed growth of the crop. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds th was recorded at 191.64 la ha on 6 Sept, 2013, an increase of 12.86% th as compared to the corresponding period last year. as on 10 September, soybean sowing in MP is up 9.8% at 63.8 la ha, while in Maharashtra it is up by 21.5% at 39.04 la ha. Indias Soymeal exports jumped to 1.83 lk tn in August against 10,006 tn in August last year due to robust demand and favorable prices. International Markets CBOT Soybean traded on a flat note and settled 0.04% lower on Tuesday. Prices have declined ahead of harvest of the new crop. However, warm and dry weather in the US Midwest has raised fears over yield losses in soybean. Export demand further supported and upside in the prices. However, forecast of favorable and wet weather in the coming days capped the upside. The USDA crop progress report downgraded the good-to-excellent rating to 52% from 54% last week and 32% a year ago. USDA reported that 97% of the crop is setting pods vs. 99% a year ago. The USDA monthly crop report revised the acreage to 77.2 mn acres from its earlier estimates of 77.7 mn acres. Harvest estimates have also been trimmed to 3.255 bn bsh from the earlier estimates of 3.42 bn bsh. Forecast of 2013-14 ending stocks have also been slashed from 295 mn bsh in July to 220 mn bsh. According to Agro consult, a local analyst, Brazil new soy crop is seen at a record 88.4 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 81.46 mn tn last year.

Market Highlights

as on Sept 10, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.54 -1.29 -3.25 -0.04 -1.60 -2.81 -5.74 -2.21 -3.28 -6.06

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean-CBOT Sept'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3522 3360 1404 3600 3426

MoM -0.51 10.67 4.70 -3.28 5.68

YoY -21.31 -11.56 -18.05 -15.29 -15.82

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3522 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3359.5 3370 3400.5 0 10.5 0 18-Oct-13 -162.5 20-Nov-13 -152

as on Sept 10, 2013 20-Dec-13 -121.5 41 30.5 0 as on Sept 10, 2013 18-Oct-13 -119 55 0 20-Nov-13 -77 97 42 0

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3600 3426 3481 3523 20-Sep-13 -174 0 -

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 6th Sept 1776 251 1348 644 40649 781 432 45881 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 61 10 0 71 Stocks as on 3rd Sept 1776 251 2143 644 43048 781 432 49075

as on Sept 06, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 60 NCDEX October contract

Source:Telequote

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade on a negative note today. Expectations of commencement of arrivals of early sown soy crop and appreciation in the Rupee may pressurize prices. However, weather concerns in the domestic as well as the US may limit the downside and support prices. Participants may trade cautiously ahead of the USDA monthly report.

Technical Chart Soybean

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed declined 2.81% on Tuesday tracking weak oilseeds prices coupled with comfortable supplies of mustard. However, mustard demand due to lean supplies of other oilseeds limited the downside in the prices. Supplies are abundant due to a bumper output. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may trade on a negative note due to ample supplies coupled with weak oilseeds. Prospects of a better sowing may also pressurize prices. However, good mustard demand due to lean supply period of other oilseeds may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Oct Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 11, 2013 Support 3280-3320 3430-3455 Resistance 3410-3450 3510-3540

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on a weak note yesterday and settled 2.37% lower on the back of sharp appreciation in the Rupee coupled with weak soybean prices. Expectations arrivals of new season soy crop to commence soon would ease supplies in the coming weeks. However, festive demand limited the downside and supported prices at lower levels. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils declined 6.13% to 889,493 tn in July. Monthly soy oil imports rose 69% as local supplies are almost before the soybean crop enters the markets. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Aug 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 695,000 tn on July 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 680.55 677.80 42.73 2353 532.10 Prev day -1.90 -2.37 -0.19 -2.00 -2.24

as on Sept 10, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTSept'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sept '13 Fut CPO-MCX- Sept '13 Futures

WoW -3.26 -5.03 -2.49 -2.77 -5.61

MoM 0.68 1.01 3.21 3.29 6.33

YoY -15.03 -14.65 -23.64 -16.68 -1.92

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 680.55 677.8 656.45 655 20-Sep-13 -2.75 0 18-Oct-13 -24.1 -21.35 0 -

as on Sept 10, 2013 20-Nov-13 -25.55 -22.8 -1.45 0 as on Sept 10, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade on a mixed note with a negative bias. Appreciation in the Rupee, coupled with expectations of arrivals of the early soy crop and comfortable stocks of imported edible may pressurize prices. However, festive demand may support prices at lower levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 30-Nov-13 Closing 532.1 528.7 528.9 30-Sep-13 0 31-Oct-13 -3.4 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures declined 2.24% on Tuesday on account of a strong Rupee coupled with weakness KLCE prices which declined 2%. However, festive demand supported prices at lower levels. Malaysian palm oil futures inched up earlier this week on expectations that healthy exports will persist into September coupled with a weak Ringgit boosting export hopes. Prices on the KLCE had earlier declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred export demand for most consumed cooking oil. Also, an increase in the output is expected due to seasonally higher yield period, which may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products between September 1-10 increased 10.79% to 462,471 tonnes from,417,414 tonnes shipped between August 1-10. Malaysia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 4.5% for September, unchanged since March. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased 7.37% in August against July, while palm oil output increased 3.6% and the end stocks increased 0.11%. India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8% in July to 213,853 tn from 296, 230 tn in June as a weak Rupee made imports expensive.

30-Nov-13 -3.2 0.2 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX October contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO is expected to trade with a negative bias today on expectations of Rupee appreciation and a weak KLCE. However, sentiments for Malaysian palm oil futures remain positive on hopes of healthy exports to continue in the month of September thereby keeping stock levels lower.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Oct NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 11, 2013 Support 647-652 525-529 Resistance 662-667 538-543

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Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera traded on a negative note on Tuesday amid easing tensions in Syria. Also, expectations of higher sowing in the coming season due to good rains in the jeera belt in Gujarat have pressurized prices. Prices had gained earlier due to the ongoing tensions in Syria coupled with lower production in Turkey as well as good domestic demand. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.58% and 2% lower on Tuesday. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. 1% Jeera of Indian origin Singapore is being offered at $2,300/tn (FOB Mum) while Europe at $2,400/tn (CNF). (Source: Agriwatch) In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey.

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13690 13238 5073 4910 Prev day -0.58 -2.00 -1.87 -0.69

as on Sept 10, 2013 % Change WoW -1.79 -6.30 -2.79 -4.96 MoM 0.57 -0.28 -1.17 0.82 YoY -7.95 -4.23 -7.09 -18.57

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Sept Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 13689.5 13237.5 13522.5 13720 20-Sep-13 -452 0 18-Oct-13 -167 285 0 -

as on Sept 10, 2013 20-Nov-13 30.5 482.5 197.5 0 as on Sept 10, 2013 20-Sep-13 -163 0 18-Oct-13 -19 144 0 20-Nov-13 109 272 128 0 as on Sept 06, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 3rd Sept Process 1388 2640 4028 8546 NCDEX October contract 0 130 130 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 13,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 5073 4910 5054 5182

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera futures may trade with a negative bias. Easing tensions in Syria coupled with prospects of higher sowing in the coming season may pressurize prices. However, overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices. Situation in Syria needs to be closely watched, as further escalation of tensions will push up the prices.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 6th Sept 1319 2310 3629 8546 Qty in Process 0 267 267 0

Turmeric
Turmeric October Futures traded on a mixed note. Huge carryover stocks coupled with good sowing amid favorable weather conditions pressurized prices. However, recovered from lower levels on account of fresh overseas as well as domestic demand and settled 0.12% higher. According to a circular by NCDEX, launch of April 2014 expiry contract in Turmeric has been postponed till further notice.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode were reported at 2,000 and 3,000 bags respectively on Tuesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at th 0.51 lakh ha as on 4 September, as against 0.54 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.64 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric futures are expected to trade on a negative note today as huge carryover stocks coupled with favorable climate may pressurize prices further. However, export as well as festive demand may limit the downside and support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Oct Futures Turmeric NCDEX Oct Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Sept 11, 2013

Support 13340-13430 4944-5000 Resistance 13620-13710 5110-5170

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a flat note and settled marginally lower by 0.1% due to ample supplies coupled with expectations of a higher output and selling pressure from the mills. However, a pickup in demand ahead of the festive season supported prices at lower levels. An increase in the import duty to curb the inflows also supported prices at lower levels. The Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in th 48.74 la ha as on 6 Sept 2013 as compared to 50.06 la ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 2986 `/qtl 497.9 $/tonne 381.78 $/tonne 1.00 0.36 -0.10 Last 3030

as on Sept 10, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.20 -0.33 -0.70 3.95 4.31 MoM YoY -0.90 -14.94 -0.99 0.00 1.18 -13.92 -10.83 -11.58

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3030 2986 2999 3006 20-Sep-13 -44 0 18-Oct-13 -31 13 0 -

as on Sept 10,2013 20-Nov-13 -24 20 7 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon has curbed some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 6th Sept 599 3874 0 923 5396 Qty in Process 599 0 0 0 599 Stocks as 3 Sept 449 5452 0 923 6824
rd

as on Sept 06, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX October contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar settled 0.36% and 1% higher respectively on Tuesday due to good demand in the physical markets. Rains and cold weather in Brazil have also raised fears of frost and crop damage. However, ample supplies due to higher crushing in Brazil have capped sharp gains. The ISO has estimated sugar surplus to fall to 4.5 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 10.3 mn tn last year. Brazil's main cane region produced 3.2 mn tn sugar in the second half of August, up 10% from the 2.91 mn tn produced in the first half of August. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 19.961 mn tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1, up 7 percent from a year ago. According to Datagro, Centre-South output for 2013/14 is seen at 34.18 mn tn against 34.09 mn tn last year. Mills allocate 48.63% of cane to sugar while 51.37% to ethanol.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar may trade with on a mixed note with a negative bias on account of ample supplies, selling by the mills and expectations of a sugar surplus. However, festive demand may support prices at lower levels. Demand in the physical markets may also tend support to the prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Oct NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Sept 11, 2013 Support 2960-2980 Resistance 3015-3030

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as Cotton Futures traded with a negative yesterday due to appreciation in the Rupee. However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled unchanged and 0.37% lower. Demand from millers, as well as yarn exports supported prices at lower levels. Expectations of delay in harvesting by around 15 days due to heavy rains also supported prices. The government has allowed the CCI to export more cotton in the current season. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1030 21410 84.85 89.4

as on Sept 10, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.00 -1.44 -0.37 -6.34 1.36 2.45 0.28 0.00 MoM YoY -1.44 #N/A 2.39 22.34 -4.72 13.16 -5.35
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton Aug Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

4.14

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 21410 20580 20550 31-Oct-13 0 -

as on Sept 10, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -830 0 -860 -30 0

Sowing Progress
As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was reported at 113.12 th la ha on 6 Sept 2013 as against 113.46 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.88 la ha as on 6 September 2013, up by 13.7% compared to the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was th done on 3 la ha as on 27 August 2013 as against 4.53 la ha last year. In th AP, cotton sowing was undertaken on 20.94 la ha as on 4 September 2013 as against 21.4 la ha last year.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures gained 1.36% on Tuesday commencement of stockpiling from China. However, subdued mill demand and long term concerns from China capped sharp gains. The USDA monthly report lowered US cotton output forecast to 13.05 million bales, the lowest in four years. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 47% against 46% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 20% against 23% last week. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton futures may trade on a mixed note. Appreciation in the Rupee may pressurize prices while expected delay in arrivals coupled with demand from millers as well as yarn exporters may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Sept 11, 2013 Support 1018-1024 21090-21250 Resistance 1037-1045 21600-21770

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Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday | 11 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar complex futures continued to trade on a bullish note as farmers are unwilling to sell their stocks expecting further increase. Also weather concerns have raised yield concerns. Guar seed as well as guar gum settled 3.88% and 3.97% higher on Tuesday. Special Margin of 10% on the Long side will be imposed on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Guar Seed and Guar Gum w.e.f beginning of Wednesday Sept 11, 2013. This will be in addition to Special Margins imposed as stated in contract specifications. Dry and hot weather in the Guar areas in Rajasthan and Haryana may have an adverse impact on the yield. Supplies have declined in the last 23 weeks as farmers are not liquidating their stocks at lower levels. All these factors along with overall weakness in the Indian rupee supported an upside movement in the guar complex. Huge stocks, higher acreage and expected higher production in the new season beginning October 2013 have exerted downside pressure on the guar prices since past 2-3 months. According to sources, carry forward stocks are higher and despite of this farmers have increased acreage in Rajasthan amid favorable monsoon this season.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 7490 `/qtl 24108 `/qtl 20700 `/qtl 3.97 16.38 3.88 Last Prev day 8500 10.91

as on Sept 10, 2013 % change WoW 5.72 17.95 13.96 18.42 MoM 60.78 77.91 65.04 75.57 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 8500 7490 7200 7150 18-Oct-13 -1010 0 -

as on Sept 10, 2013 20-Nov-13 -1300 -290 0 20-Dec-13 -1350 -340 -50 0 as on Sept 10, 2013 20-Nov-13 -4317.7 -910 0 20-Dec-13 -4137.7 -730 180 0 as on Sept 06, 2013 Stocks as on 3rd Sept 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

North- west India, the largest guar growing belt has received 20% above th average rains since the beginning of the monsoon season till 30 August. During the last week, the rains were 47% above the long period average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guar seed acreage as on 27 August, 2013 stood at 34.3 lakh hectares compared with 26.58 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 24107.7 20700 19790 19970 18-Oct-13 -3407.7 0 -

Guar seed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage remained higher this season too.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 6th Sept 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guar seed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. However, Fuelled by demand in China and the US, guar gum export from India in April-May rose nearly 12 per cent but realization fell 57 per cent due to lower prices. (Source: Business standard)

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed as well as guar gum are expected to continue to trade on a bullish note as overall sentiments remain positive on concerns over dry and hot weather in Rajasthan and Haryana may hamper the guar crop yield. Also farmers are also holding back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days. However, profit taking may be seen at higher levels, capping sharp gains.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 11, 2013 Support 7340-7410 7220-7300 20370-20530 20370-20530 Resistance 7550-7620 7440-7510 20880-21050 20880-21050

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