10/30/2011

New Core Curriculum:

Foundations of Scientific Process

Factors that govern Global & Local Climate

BEFORE WE BEGIN WE SHOULD PROBABLY DEFINE THE TERM CLIMATE

The Climate of the Earth and Life Have Influenced One Another

Life as we know it wasnt possible until certain atmospheric conditions became prevalent

10/30/2011

The Great Mass Extinctions are Linked to Climate Change

There are 3 Things Which Make the Earth Hospitable to Life

Orbital Stability

Chemical Composition

Temperature

Because Earth Lies In The Habitable Zone, Water Can Exist As A Liquid

The Temperature Of A Planet Is Determined By Its Energy Balance

EnergyIN=EnergyOUT
Stars Luminosity Distance planet-star Tilt of planets axis, eccentricity of planet's orbit Reflectivity of planet, Albedo (cloud cover, surface ice, vegetation, aerosols) Planets atmosphere Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxides Sulfur dioxide Aerosols

Doyourememberthe3keyfactorswhichinfluencetheGlobalClimate?

10/30/2011

Energy input = Earth output

1) Ein (from the Sun)

Eout
2) Reflectivity (Albedo) 3) Greenhouse Concentration

THERE ARE 3 KEY FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE Ein

The First Key Factor Influencing Ein is the distance from the Earth to the Sun

The Second Key Factor Influencing Ein are Sun Spots

More sunspots = brighter sun Small effect: 1-2 W/m2 of 1360 W/m2

Solar Min 2006

B = L/4d2

Solar Max 2001

Solar Max 2011

Sunspot cycles occur over decades to hundreds of years

10/30/2011

Earths Climate Is Very Sensitive To SMALL Changes In The Energy Balance

The Third Key Factor Influencing Ein Is The Distance To the Sun
Milankovitch cycles

1-2 W/m2

Year significant climate responses to sun spots

100,000

years

41,000

years

23,000

years

The eccentricity is a measure of the departure of this ellipse from circularity.

The angle of the Earth's axial tilt varies with respect to the plane of the Earth's orbit.

Precession is the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed star.

Greenhousegases The First Key Factor Influencing Eout is Earths Albedo

Albedo

THERE ARE 2 KEY FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE Eout

Clouds, ice, white aerosols reflect about 30% of incoming sunlight back to space

10/30/2011

Albedo is the fraction of incoming radiation that is not absorbed, but rather is bounced back into space
Samplealbedos Surface Freshasphalt Coniferforest (Summer) Wornasphalt Baresoil Greengrass Desertsand Newconcrete Freshsnow Albedo 0.04[1] 0.08[2] 0.12[1] 0.17[3] 0.25[3] 0.40[4] 0.55[3] 0.800.90[3]

Volcanoes Release Aerosols Which Can Cool the Earths Climate by Increasing Earths Albedo
Mt. Pinatubo - 1994

Brief effect
Venus ~ 0.65 Mars ~ 0.15 Earth ~ 0.3 Moon ~ 0.12 Jupiter ~ 0.52 Europa ~ 0.67 Natural

Big eruptions inject aerosols into the upper atmosphere. Earth becomes more reflective for 2-3 years

During The Year Without a Summer Global Temperatures decreased ~0.40.7 C (0.71.3 F),

The Second Key Factor Influencing Eout are Greenhouse Gasses

H2O vapor constitutes the largest % of the greenhouse effect

Greenhouse Effect: gases (H2O, CO2,..) trap heat in the atmosphere

10/30/2011

CO2 Absorbs Energy Near The Peak of Earths Output

Heat & Temperature

Heat:energyofatomicandmolecularmotion Temperature:measureofaveragekineticenergyofmoving atomsandmolecules

vavg 140(m / s )

T m

T (in Kelvin) m (atomic mass unit, # protons + # neutrons)

Ex: Room temperature T = 293 K Air particles as N2 (m = 2 x 14 g/mol) vavg ~ 450 m/s

Earths Climate System Is Both Variable & Sensitive

Who remembers the definition of Climate?
Complicated Feedback Loops in-play

Nowthatwevediscussedwhatcausesglobalclimate

3 factors determine the global climate:

1) Ein (from the Sun) 2) Reflectivity (Albedo) 3) Greenhouse Concentration

WHAT DO YOU THINK CAUSES LOCAL CLIMATE?

10/30/2011

The Differential Heating Of The Earth By The Sun Controls Local Climate

Earths Elliptical Orbit Doesnt Influence the Seasons

What causes Seasons?

Elements of Habitability

Stability ChemicalComposition Temperature

EnergyIN=EnergyOUT
Stars Luminosity Distance planet-star Tilt of planets axis, eccentricity of planet's orbit Reflectivity of planet, Albedo (cloud cover, surface ice, vegetation, aerosols) Planets atmosphere Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxides Sulfur dioxide Aerosols Global Trends
Climate Change (global warming, sea-level rise, coastal flooding, extreme weather)

HOW DO WE KNOW?

10/30/2011

The Earths Past (evidence from the geologic record)

Proxies- needed to infer past climate-related changes

Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric O2

HOW CAN WE KNOW WHAT THE CLIMATE WAS LIKE IN THE PAST?
Time before present (billions of years)

Paleo-Climate Proxies Allow Scientists to Determine Past Climate

IceCore SedimentaryLayers TreeRings

Geologic Features Left By Retreating Glaciers Can Serve As A Proxy for Past Climatic Conditions
Retreating glacier in Greenland TODAY Glaciers clean rock surface Leave hills or mounds of sediments (moraines) and discoloration

Glacialfeatures

Fossils

Full extent in ~1850 AD But this is with reference to Greenland. Is it applicable on the global scale?

10/30/2011

Glaciers Are Retreating In the New Zealand Too

In Fact, For The Past 300 Years Glaciers Worldwide Have Retreated

Examine retreat of glaciers elsewhere on Earth Franz Josef Glacier in New Zealand Compare size in 1880 AD and now Retreat of glacier Climate much colder in the past

Ref : IPCC Report 2001

Historicalrecordsofpast conditions

We Can Even Find Glacial Grooves In Our Own Neighborhoods

The Eponymous Glaciers of Glacier National Park Will Be Gone by 2020

Glacial Straie

Matterhorn

Central Park

Glacial Straie in Central Park are evidence that glaciers extended here 20,000 YBP

1850s 150glaciers 2010 25glaciers 2020 0

10/30/2011

The Most Quantitative Evidence For Past Climate Comes From Ice Core Archives

Air Bubbles Trapped Inside of Glaciers Allow Us To Study the Ancient Atmosphere
Snow falls Ice becomes closer packed Eventually pores are isolated and gas is trapped Gas is record of the atmosphere in the past and the content of various gases CO2, CH4 etc. in it

2-5 km length
http://www.pbs.org/saf/1505/video/watchonline.htm

movie of ocean sample

Studying Earths Paleoclimate Shows Us There Is A Correlation Between CO2 Levels and Temperature

In the Past 400,000 Years Levels of CO2 Have Ossilated Between 200 and 300 PPM
How was an estimate of CO2 obtained? Air bubbles trapped in the ice core

How was an estimate of temperature obtained?

Data: CO2 content of air trapped in ice core

Ratio of Oxygen isotopes (atoms with different number of neutrons)

10

10/30/2011

Low Levels of CO2 Are Associated With Ice Ages

Calibration Curve
Homo Sapiens about 200 thousand years ago

Nature, June 2003

20,000 YEARS AGO

Current Models Show Atmospheric Levels of Levels of CO2 Are Rising

700 600

600 500

CO2 concentrations (ppm)

500

400

MaunaLoa
300

IPCC A1Bscenario
400

MaunaLoa
300

200

1950

2000

2050

2100

Time (years)

11

10/30/2011

If This Trend Continues CO2 Levels Will Significantly Exceed The Highest Levels The Humans Species Has Experienced
600

There Are Two Possible Causes For Global Warming or Climate Change

500

IPCC A1B
400

+0.6

MaunaLoa
300

FactorsresponsibleforClimateVariation: A)NaturalCauses B)AnthropogenicCauses

So global climate is warming.

Natural Causes
variationsinEarthsorbit
eccentricity,obliquity,precession

Anthropogenic Causes
additionofCO2

How can we distinguish between variations due to natural causes and those that are induced by human activity?
Natural Causes Anthropogenic Causes

movementoflandmasses volcanicactivity

burnburningofcoal/fossilfuels; deforestation(vegetationdecay);

generationofAerosols

Climate Models as Evidence: used to determine the amount of change anticipated by accounting for certain factors

Modern Climate Changes dominated by Human Influence

12

10/30/2011

Climate Models as Evidence:

Testing models against past climate: The last ~ 100 years

Natural Influences Modern Climate Changes dominated by Human Influence

Human Influences

13