Tribology International 34 (2001) 789799 www.elsevier.

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Tribology research in the twenty-rst century

Hugh Spikes
Tribology Section, Imperial College, Mechanical Engineering Department, London SW7 2BX, UK

Abstract This paper attempts to predict and discuss some of the many challenges facing fundamental research in tribology over the rst half of the new century. This is done in two stages, looking at likely developments over the rst twelve years based on extrapolation of existing trends, and then, more speculatively, considering possible driving forces over subsequent decades. 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Tribology; Future research; Modeling; Thin lms; Smart systems; Coatings

1. Introduction The aim of this paper is to predict and discuss some of the likely challenges and opportunities for fundamental research in tribology in this new, twenty-rst century. The practicality of such an exercise is debatable: it depends upon whether future development in the subject results mainly from the steady evolution of pre-existing trends or from the sudden blossoming of new and unpredictable concepts and discoveries. It is interesting to consider whether the enormous advances in tribology of the twentieth century could have been predicted in the year 1900, (leaving aside the fact that the term tribology had not been coined). One of the rst major textbooks on tribology in the English language, Archbutt and Deeleys Lubrication and lubricants, was published, fortuitously, in 1900 [1]. In this text, four ongoing developments in lubrication are highlighted. Perhaps the most important, resulting from the impact of Beauchamp Tower and Reynolds recent discovery of hydrodynamic lubrication, was the new focus on designing for perfect lubrication, i.e. for machine components to operate in full lm hydrodynamic conditions. Two other important concerns also followed from this discovery. One was to develop lubricants with improved oxidation stability to be used in the sumps needed to supply full lm hydrodynamic bearings, what the authors termed reservoir lubrication. A second was to understand the origins of oiliness, and why, in

E-mail address: h.spikes@ic.ac.uk (H. Spikes).

imperfect lubrication conditions, natural oils were better lubricants than mineral ones. The nal major advance highlighted by Archbutt and Deeley in 1900 was very rapid progress taking place at that time in the manufacture and application of rolling element bearings. These same four areas continued to dominate tribology research in the next twenty years; hydrodynamic analysis and design, such as the development of tilting pad bearings and the work of Sommerfeld, Rayleigh and Hershey; advances in the rening and characterisation of lubricants, including the rst synthetic oil; extensive research into oiliness, or, as it soon became, boundary lubrication by Southcombe, Hardy and Langmuir; research in roller bearing design, manufacture and analysis. Most of the worlds leading rolling element bearing companies were established between 1900 and 1920 [2]. So, the rst twenty years of research were relatively predictable in 1900. However progress over the subsequent eighty years could hardly have been guessed at. Who would have foreseen the rise of the automobile to its present dominion, with the consequent advances in lubricant and transmission technology; or the growth of polymer science and industry, leading to dry bearings and synthetic lubricants, or the development of electronic computers, with our consequent ability to solve coupled hydrodynamic/elastic/piezo-viscous equations and to simulate the molecular motion of liquids? (Though there may well have been predictions of a burgeoning industry in the lubrication and design of mechanical computing engines.) With this in mind, this paper will consider the future in two stages, rst the next twelve years, which is

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accessible, at least to some extent, by extrapolation, and then the subsequent few decades, where we enter the realm of speculation and of broad technological driving forces and possibilities. It must be emphasised that no attempt is made to be comprehensive and just a few specic areas of tribology are discussed. The intention is simply to challenge the mind and to stimulate the imagination.

2. The next twelve years Based on current trends in research activity and technological opportunities and needs, ve areas of likely major activity in tribology over the next few years are (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Modelling and simulation Thin lubricant lms Energy efcient technologies Scientically designed surfaces Smart systems

Each of these will be discussed below. 2.1. Modelling and simulation One of the most signicant drivers over the last four decades in tribology, as in many other elds, has been the progressive increase in power, and decrease in cost, of computer processing. Throughout this period, computer processing power/cost ratio has effectively doubled every eighteen months, thus increasing by a factor of 100 every ten years. The inuence of this on tribology has been very great, as exemplied by its effect on the solution of uid lm lubrication problems. Until the late 1940s, solutions to nite hydrodynamic bearing problems relied upon series solutions, on electrical analogue devices or on laborious pen and paper, iterative numerical methods [35]. By the beginning of the 1960s, pen and paper had been discarded and mainframe computers, fed by paper tape and punched cards, had led to numerical solutions of thermal hydrodynamic [6] and isothermal line contact elastohydrodynamic contacts [7]. This was extended by the mid 1960s to thermal solutions of EHD line contact [8] and by the 1970s to isothermal solutions of the EHD point contact problem [9,10]. By the 1980s, advances in numerical techniques also meant that the isothermal, smooth surface, EHD problem could now be solved rapidly on desktop computers [11,12]. The thermal, point contact problem had been addressed [13] and attention was turning to rough surface, high-pressure lubricated contact [14,15]. Also in the 1980s, the rst molecular dynamics simulations of simple hydrocarbon liquids were carried out [16]. The last decade has seen the development of full solutions of 2-D, moving real rough sur-

face EHD contact [17], and molecular dynamics simulation (MDS) of both bulk and thin lm lubricants [18,19]. Fig. 1 shows a typical lm thickness prediction from a moving, rough surface contact [20] while Fig. 2 shows the simulated behaviour of hexadecane molecules between two conning surfaces in relative motion at three different lm thicknesses [19]. This improvement in computer modelling has, of course, not been wholly governed by the increasing power of computers, there has been a progressive improvement in the sophistication of the algorithms used to solve numerical simulations, such as the multi-grid approach [21]. There have also been important advances in methods of presenting the results of computer simulation, such as virtual reality, which are becoming essential in comprehending the output of some simulations. But it is arguable that the pace of progress has been dictated largely by the growth of computer processing capability. Based on the above, one condent prediction for the next twelve years and beyond in tribology is the development and application of more and more sophisticated numerical modelling and simulation approaches to tribological problems. (Even if the rate of advance of computing power were to slow, the increased availability of rapid data communication systems should to lead to widespread and low cost access to increasingly-powerful computing capability over the internet.) By 2012, rapid desk-top computer solvers of moving rough surface, thermal, non-Newtonian, mixed EHD/boundary lubricated contact should be available to predict contact pressures, lm thicknesses and also fric-

Fig. 1. Computer simulation of lm thickness in rough surface EHD lubricated contact [20].

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Fig. 2. MDS of hexadecane between moving surfaces with colliding asperities [19].

tion. There is likely to be more modelling of multi-body problems, such as the multi-asperity contact of rubbing rough elastic solids [22] and multi-particle dynamics, as found in fretting systems. Molecular dynamics simulation should become more and more powerful and also accessible to the desktop computer user, enabling the prediction of viscometric and compressibility data for lubricants a priori from molecular structure. Current work on the modelling of damage accumulation in rubbing solid surfaces at both an atomic and a larger, unit cell, scale is also likely to be extended. Another important area of modelling activity over the next twelve years will probably be the simulation of complex tribological systems such as engines or transmissions over their operating life. This will include solution of the contact stress, temperature, dynamics and hydrodynamic behaviour of the linked components in the system, coupled with charting of lubricant ow and the accumulation of damage to both lubricant and surfaces over time of machine operation. The goal of such simulations is ultimately, of course, virtual testingthe ability to validate designs without recourse to time-consuming and expensive engine or gear-box tests. Although this goal is unlikely to be accomplished within the allotted twelve years, it may be within sight by the year 2012. Table 1 summarises some of the likely main areas of modelling and simulation research in tribology over the next twelve years.

2.2. Understanding thin lubricant lms

The efcacy of computational modelling as outlined above is contingent upon having an adequate understanding of the basic physics of the problem being modelling and of the key physical and chemical processes involved. One of the main roles of experimental tribology over the next decade or so must be to provide this understanding. There are many areas where lack of fundamental understanding is already inhibiting modelling, such as in EHD rheology and in damage accumulation in rubbing solids, and these will be briey discussed later in this paper. However one critical area concerns the behaviour of thin lubricant lms and of mixed boundary/uid lm lubricated contact. Thin lm lubrication is becoming increasingly important for a number of reasons. Firstly, lubricant lms in conventional machine components have tended to become thinner and thinner in recent years [23]. The quest for energy efcient systems is leading to the use of lower viscosity lubricants, while machine components are becoming progressively smaller, with higher power densities. Both trends produce reduced lubricant lm thickness. Recently, with the development of information storage media such as hard discs and of micromachines, there is also a strong interest in understanding

Table 1 Likely areas of modelling and simulation in tribology 2-D EHD and mixed lm solutions including thermal, non-Newtonian, for real rough surfaces and other transient effects Molecular dynamics simulation (and related methods) of lubricants Combined continuum-based and molecular modelling for mixed lubrication Atomic/cell-level modelling of response of rubbed solids to contact and sliding Simulation of multi-asperity and multi-body contact Damage accumulation modelling Simulating lubricated machine tribology over time, e.g. IC engine lubricant, wear performance

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the performance of rubbing systems having lubricant layers only a few nanometers thick on the surfaces [24]. Considerable progress has been made in studying thin lubricant lms in the last decade. There have been two main contributors to this. One has been the development and application of experimental techniques such as the force balance apparatus and ultrathin lm interferometry, which can study the lm-forming and rheological properties of nanometer-scale lubricant lms in contacts [25]. Fig. 3 shows a plot of lm thickness versus hydrodynamic lift from a sliding, crossed cylinder, mica on mica contact lubricated with cyclohexane [26]. It can be seen that the lift is effectively quantised, showing that the last few monolayers of cyclohexane molecules in a contact have a layered structure, and provide greater load support than the bulk uid. Fig. 4 shows a plot of lm thickness versus entrainment speed for the same uid, obtained from a rolling ball on at apparatus using ultrathin lm interferometry [27]. This shows that even in a high-pressure contact, there is a residual separating lm of about 1 nm, corresponding to two molecular layers of cyclohexane. The implications of these results are (i) that very thin lms of even simple, low polarity base uids can show anomalous rheological and thus lm-forming behaviour and (ii) this type of information must be incorporated in simulation work. A recent important step is the development of a spacer layer imaging system able to map lubricant lm thickness in rough surface, lubricated contact as shown in Fig. 5 [28]. This makes it possible to explore micro-

Fig. 4. Film thicknessentrainment speed behaviour for cyclohexane in a rolling steel ball on glass at contact [27].

Fig. 5. In-contact lm thickness map of micro-EHD lms with articially generated bumps and real rough surfaces [28].

Fig. 3. Hydrodynamic force between sliding, crossed mica cylinders as a function of lm thickness, lubricated with cyclohexane [26].

elastohydrodynamic lubrication and the ability of base uids and additives to control asperityasperity contact. The second main contributor to new understanding of thin lubricant lms has been the development of new and very sensitive surface analytical techniques, such as high resolution transmission electron microscopy, (HRTEM) [29] and x-ray ne structure analysis, (XANES) [30]. Such techniques are capable of providing detailed chemical and structural information about very thin, reaction lms on solid surfaces. Fig. 6 shows an HRTEM image from a wear particle formed in a friction test using a soluble organo-molybdenum, friction modier additive [29]. This indicates the presence of tiny ake-like particles of MoS2, just one or two molecules thick. Over the next twelve years, the study of thin lms in both boundary and mixed lubrication is likely to progress very rapidly, indeed it must if the needs of the modellers and simulators are to be satised. For example there is much interest at present in modelling thin lm, rough surface, lubricated contact. But such simulations must be programmed with rules for what happens at asperity conjunctions when the uid lm thickness falls below ve nanometers. What rheological models should be

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Fig. 6. HRTEM image of molecularly thin MoS2 sheets formed in rubbing contact from an organo-molybdenum friction modier additive [29].

used for the lubricant in this condition and how should the simulation be programmed to respond when the lm thickness falls below a molecular diameter? Some key problems which need to be addressed experimentally are 1. the rheological properties of very thin lms of practical lubricants; 2. the extent to which slip occurs near the uidsolid interfacs in high pressure contact; 3. the kinetics of formation and physical properties of reaction lms formed by antiwear and extreme pressure additives; 4. the behaviour of base uids and reaction lms at asperity conjunctions; 5. disentanglement and quantication of the driving forces which control chemical processes in thin lm rubbing contacts, such as ash temperature, shear, surface electron emission, catalytic activity, etc. Many of these problems should be addressed over the next twelve years, using analytical and interferometric techniques developed in the last few years but also based on the development of new experimental approaches such as in-contact spectroscopy and nano-spectroscopic or nano-electrochemical probes. 2.3. Energy efcient technologies The quest for energy efciency and thus reduction in CO2 production, as well as leading to thinner lubricant lms in machine components as outlined above, is also

fostering several new technologies, which pose serious tribological challenges. Of particular concern is the development of highly efcient (and environmentally friendly) engines and transmissions for personal transport. In transmissions, one area fraught with tribological complications is the application of toroidal traction drives. Continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) offer signicant energy-saving by enabling crankcase engines to operate closer to their optimum performance level over a full driving cycle. At present, most vehicle CVTs in use are belt drives and these are limited in torque capability to use in relatively low capacity engines. CVTs based on counterformal contact, in particular with a toroidal geometry (Fig. 7) [31], offer higher torque capability and could thus be used in largerengined cars and even trucks. From the tribology research point of view, there are currently two main challenges posed by traction drives. One is to produce lubricants able to provide high friction or traction over the wide temperature and pressure range experienced in EHD contacts. Most conventional lubricants reach a limiting EHD traction coefcient at high pressures and strain rates of about 0.03 to 0.06, falling to between 0.02 and 0.04 at 100C. To transmit power through an EHD contact requires higher traction coefcients and, over the years, there have been considerable efforts to develop synthetic lubricants with very high traction coefcient values, i.e. traction uids [3234]. However these remain costly and have limited traction at high temperatures. A second challenge is to develop accurate rheological models of uid behaviour in EHD conditions. Over the past few years, a number of such models have been proposed which can, in theory at least, be used to predict EHD traction. However, there are still areas of crucial disagreement between these. Some, based primarily on EHD friction studies, suggest that, as shear stress

Fig. 7.

A commercial toroidal traction drive [31].

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increases, the uid rst shear thins and then eventually yields completely at a limiting value of shear stress [35]. Others, based on high pressure rheology, indicate that there is negligible shear thinning and the uid in an EHD contact shows Newtonian behaviour up to its limiting shear value [36]. Research on the molecular origins of uid traction (and thus better or cheaper traction uids), and also EHD rheology is likely to provide signicant challenges over the next few years. Another technological need that provides challenges to tribology research is the development of high temperature engines. The second law of thermodynamics decrees that the wider the temperature range over which an engine operates, the more efcient it should, at least in theory, become. In practical terms this implies that the heat input stage of both gas turbine and crankcase engines should be designed to operate at the maximum possible temperature. In gas turbine engine technology, ceramic gas turbines are under development with inlet temperatures of 1350C for automotive use (Fig. 8), [37] and 1700C for supersonic/hypersonic aircraft [38], leading to bearing temperatures up to and possibly in excess of 300C. In reciprocating engine technology, low heat rejection or adiabatic diesel engines are expected to reach 540C top ring temperature [39]. Fig. 9 compares the predicted temperatures for such engines with those of water-cooled ones as a function of power output. The tribological challenge is to develop gas turbine bearings or diesel engine piston rings able to operate for long periods and with low friction at these very high temperatures. There appear to be three principle routes that research and development is taking to meet this challenge. One is the development of synthetic liquid lubricants able to withstand very high temperatures without excess-

Fig. 9. Top ring reversal temperatures for an adiabatic diesel engine [39].

Fig. 8.

An automotive gas turbine [37].

ive thermal or oxidative degradation or volatilisation. A number of candidate uids exist, of which the most favoured are polyphenylethers [40] and peruoropolyethers [41]. However, there remain considerable practical problems which limit the use of these uids in high temperature applications, including the lack of effective additives to enhance properties such as antiwear behaviour and corrosion inhibition. Specialist synthetic lubricants can probably operate for reasonably long periods at up to about 300C but thermal degradation limits their use above this temperature. One quite widely researched means of providing lubrication to temperatures above 300C is to supply lubricant as a vapour [42]. The basic principle is to use a carrier gas such as nitrogen or air to transport either vaporised liquid lubricant or additive to the vicinity of the contact, where it forms a lm on the rubbing solid surfaces. There are a number of variants [4346], but these techniques are still very much in the development stage and considerable further research is needed. The third main approach to providing very high temperature lubrication is to develop solid lubrication systems, either bulk materials or coatings, able to provide acceptable performance up to high temperatures. From the energy efciency point of view, one problem is to obtain not just low wear but also low friction. Another problem is to achieve satisfactory tribological properties over a wide temperature range, developing materials which give low friction and wear at room temperature or at 600C is not nearly as difcult as developing materials that provide these properties at both temperatures. One approach for systems that operate in vacuum or reducing conditions is the use of ceramic components, such as Si3N4, coated with molybdenum disulphide. When used with MoS2-based composite retainers, bearings made of this material have operated successfully in vacuum at 650C for over 1000 hours [47]. In air, most low friction coatings such as those based on MoS2 or

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diamond oxidise at high temperature. A good deal of research has also gone into the development of oxides with good tribological propertieslubricious oxides but few have shown very low friction [48]. One recent study has shown that Si3N4 coated with CaF2 maintains low wear up to 800C, probably by forming a lamellar structure on the surface [49]. There are still a number of tribological problems to be solved before any of the above approaches becomes widely used in high temperature engines but there is little doubt that one or more of them will do so, since energy efcient technology requires it. It is difcult at this stage to say which of the three approaches will prevail. This depends in part on the efforts and skills of tribologists over the next decade. As well as the two areas of engines and transmissions, there are, of course, other types of applications where the requirement for energy saving is likely to foster tribological research in the near future such as in tyre materials and design. 2.4. Scientically designed surfaces Over the last forty years, one of the most practically useful and yet least fundamentally researched areas of tribology has concerned surface treatments and coatings. Many valuable processes have been developed and applied, largely empirically. In the last decade this trial and error approach has begun to be superseded. This has partly come about through the use of numerical modelling of the contact of bodies with layered physical properties, as are present in coated or treated surfaces. Fig. 10 shows the calculated stress distribution due to the contact of a rough counterface against a nitrided titanium surface with a specied, layered composition and thus material properties [50]. This approach is beginning to produce quantitative, scientically based rules for the selection of new surface coatings and treatments. A second driving force has been the development of methods, based largely on the techniques developed for

the semi-conductor industry, of producing and characterising sophisticated and well-dened surface coatings. Fig. 11 shows the level of sophistication possible, where multilayers of diamond-like coating alternating with titanium are produced to optimise adhesion and crack growth inhibition [51]. This whole area of research and development will become increasingly important, not least because of a steady long-term trend towards dry rather than lubricated tribological systems, which will be briey discussed later in this paper. One likely area of research in the next twelve years is the 3-D modelling of non-isotropic or multiphase materials so as to explore the stress distribution properties of materials such as alloys composites and the inuence of these on crack growth and other forms of damage accumulation. This raises another important development in the scientic design of surfaces, which is a recent focus on the processes of damage accumulation due to rubbing contact. Until the 1990s, most research on wear considered this simply in terms of the interaction of the two contacting surfaces, with material removal resulting from the forces generated at the surface due to adhesion or abrasion. A limited amount of work treated wear in terms of fatigue crack development at an asperity scale, leading to delamination [52] or micropitting [53]. Over the last few years, it has been realised that the various processes of wear must be considered, like classical contact fatigue, in terms of the damage that accumulates in the immediate subsurface of rubbing bodies [5456]. This approach clearly has strong links with work on surface coatings and treatments, since once the damage

Fig. 10. Calculated stresses due to the contact of a rough counterface on a nitrided titanium surface [50].

Fig. 11. Properties of a multilayer stack surface coating [51].

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Fig. 12.

Smart, anti-vibration rolling element bearing [57].

accumulation processes are understood, they can be addressed by the scientically informed grading or layering of material properties. In the next twelve years, the whole area of research of damage accumulation due to rubbing is likely to be a major eld of activity and may eventually lead to a proper understanding and ability to predict wear. 2.5. Smart systems The nal trend to be discussed in this paper, which should play an important role in stimulating tribology research over the next twelve years, is the increasing use of smart systems. These have been made possible by new sensor technologies, coupled with low cost and very compact computing power and are likely to be the inspiration for much exciting tribology research in the next few years. Two typical examples are shown in Figs. 12 and 13. One concerns the development of anti-vibration bearings for geared shafts. Piezoelectric sensors installed between the outer ring of the bearing and its casing detect force exerted on the bearing due to gear meshing. This signal is fed back to opposing sensors, which are made to

expand or contract out of phase with the applied force, thus damping the bearings vibration [57]. The second is a design for an intelligent tyre to reduce the likelihood of skid [58]. Sensors on the tyre measure the torque exerted due to tyre-road surface friction, and this can be used to control the braking force. There are innumerable other possible ways that the performance of tribological systems can be optimised in this active fashion. For example, electrorheological uids can be employed to optimise damper performance [59,60], while lubricant lm formation and friction may be controlled using an applied potential to a liquid crystal lubricant [61]. It has also been shown that it is possible to vary boundary friction electrochemically by promoting or inhibiting additive reactions, thereby making feasible the active control of friction in lubricated contact [62]. Closely linked to smart systems is the ever-increasing interest in techniques for monitoring the condition and health of tribological systems, to prevent unplanned and consequently dangerous or expensive failures. The need for new, and better probes, and of the underlying fundamental understanding of the tribological processes needed to monitor performance and develop smart systems, should lead to much fertile research over the next few years.

3. From 2012 to 2050% That brings us to the end of 2012, what of beyond this period? Here we enter the realms of speculation, since the possibility of major, unanticipated advances in understanding in the eld of tribology, or of the growth of unforeseen technologies and consequent new tribological requirements, increases as the years pass, just as it did at the beginning of the last century. Likely directions and progress can only be judged by identifying possible or probable driving forces. These may be both technological needs, which impel the science of tribology forward. Or technological opportunities, i.e. advances in other elds, which can be put to good effect in advancing

Fig. 13.

Smart, torque-sensing skid resistant tyre [58].

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tribology research, such as the improved surface analytical techniques which have become available over the last decade. Possible technological needs which may drive tribology research through the rst half of the century are, for example, the development of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), the replacement of the internal combustion engine in personal transport and commercial activity in space. MEMS present specic tribological challenges in terms of low viscosity, non-volatile lubricants, new material and surface treatments and new types of contact analysis, where surface effects overwhelm bulk ones [63]. At present, the rate of progress in the use of MEMS is quite small, but this may accelerate sharply in the next twenty to thirty years. The likely gradual replacement of the IC engine by less polluting and possibly more efcient, mobile power sources will reduce the importance of some areas of tribology, but may raise others, such as the design of vacuum-based, ywheel energy storage systems. The space programme of the 1960s to 1980s stimulated considerable tribology research, but this has, to a large extent, levelled out. However, were signicant commercial activity to develop in deep space, possibly in mining, then the need for ultra-reliable, but relatively low cost, space vehicles would provide powerful challenges. Two other trends which have already begun, but which should continue to drive tribology research well into this century, are the quest for lifetime zero maintenance and life cycle costing. Modern society expects its technological tools to require less and less supervision or maintenance. This implies low to zero wear, a general trend to dry rather than lubricated systems, more smart systems or self-repairing ones. Society also aspires to a better, or at least as good an environment in the future as in the present. This implies not just improvements in energy efciency, as discussed above, but also improvements in energy and other resource utilisation. The possible focus in future on the total life cycle cost of technologies, from raw material extraction to disposal should drive forward many aspects of tribology research. And what of the technological opportunities which may assist tribology in the next half century? Just three will be mentioned. One is, of course, the inexorable rise in computer processing power. According to present trends, by 2030, computers should be a million or so times as powerful as they are now. The inuence of this on modelling and simulation is almost unimaginable. A second possible advance is the development of reasonably low cost, room temperature superconductors. These could lead to a signicant shift from dry rubbing or lubricated bearings to ones based on magnetic levitation. A third intriguing possibility is the application of bioactive surfaces to tribological components, not just for human

joints, but for other machine bearings. Inorganic materials which promote their own organically-driven growth already exist [64] and are used, for example, in dentistry. This may provide another means of attaining the self-replenishing, zero wear, machine component. It is difcult yet to gauge the impact of the current rapid growth in biotechnology and genetic engineering on tribology, but there is almost certain to be someif only in extending the useful life of tribology researchers!

4. Conclusions As can be seen from the above, tribology research has many exciting discoveries in store over the next few decades. There are, however, some potential problems. One is that as the applications of tribology become more disparate, extending from conventional engineering machines and manufacture to MEMS and hair conditioners, groups working in various areas may lose communication or interest in one another. To some extent there is already less than perfect communication between engineers working on classical machine component tribology, materials scientists working on coatings and the surface physicists tackling the many tribological problems of hard disc performance or MEMS. Another problem which has already been alluded to in this paper is whether it will be possible for experimental research into fundamental aspects of tribology to nd the funding to keep pace with and to feed the voracious appetite of the computer modellers. Year by year, the latter activity is tending to become less and less expensive, while the former becomes ever more so. Notwithstanding these possible problems, this paper should have indicated the enormous possibilities and excitement that research in tribology offers in this twenty-rst century.

References
[1] Archbutt L, Mountford Deeley E. Lubrication and lubricants, a treatise on the theory and practice of lubrication. London: C Grifn & Co. Ltd, 1900. [2] Dowson D. History of lubrication. 2nd ed. London: PEP Ltd, 1998. [3] Michell AGM. The lubrication of plane surfaces. Z Math Phys 1905;52(2):12337. [4] Kingsbury A. On problems in the theory of uid lm lubrication with an experimental method of solution. Trans ASME 1931;53:5975. [5] Christopherson DG. A new mathematical method for the solution of lm lubrication problems. Proc Inst Mech Eng 1941;146:12635. [6] Zienkiewicz OC. Temperature distribution within lubricating lms between parallel surfaces and the effect on the pressure distribution. In: Proceedings of a Conference on Lubrication and Wear. Institute of Mechanical Engineers, 1957:13541.

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