4

Planning
(Planning)



,
,

,
,

, (Premium)
,

,






4.1

* (Dubrin Ireland, 1993 : 107)
* (Goal) (Object)


(, 2543
: 101)

74

(Missions), (Goals) (Strategies)

(Who) (What) (Where)
(When) (Why) (How)

(Decision Making)

(Document)

4.2







(Dubrin Ireland, 1993 :108)

(Competitive Advantage)

4.2.1

(Dubrin Ireland, 1993 : 108)
4.2.2

(Dubrin Ireland, 1993 : 108)
4.2.3

75

4.2.4
(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 212)

4.2.5


2

(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 212)

4.2.6





(, 2541 : 10)
4.2.7

4.2.8

(Dubrin Ireland,
1993 : 109)

76

4.2.9 *

(Dubrin Ireland, 1993 : 109)

4.2.10 (Dubrin Ireland, 1993 : 110)

4.2.11

, ,

(Dubrin Ireland, 1993 : 115-116)

* (Vision) (Scherhorn. 1999 : 262)

(Dream)
(Aspiration) (, 2543 : 101)

77

4.3

4.3.1

4.3.2
(Customer Satisfaction)

4.3.3




4.3.4

(Feasibility Study),
(Cost-benefit Analysis),
(Cash Flow Analysis), (Discounting), (Net Present Worth)
- (Benefit-cost Ratio), (Internal Rate of Return),
(Impact-incidence Matrix), - (Cost-effectiveness Analysis)
( , 2535 : 321)
4.3.5
(Environmental Adaptation)

(Dubrin
Ireland, 1993 : 111-112)

78

(Objective)
, (Discreteness)

,
(Coherent Organized Action)

,

(Location)






-
(Scheduled Beginning and Terminal Points)

(, 2527 : 17-22)
4.4

(Daft, 2002 : 212), (Schermerhorn, 1999 : 140-144),
(Robbin Coulter, 1999 : 213-218) (Dubrin Ireland,
1993 : 116)

4.4.1 (Short - range and Long - range Plan)
3 (Short - range Plan)
1 , (Intermediate range Plan) 1-5
(Long range Plan) 5 4-1
Short- range

Intermediate-range plan

4
5
3
4-1

Long- range plan

79

4.4.2 (Strategic Tactical and Operational Plan)

(Strategic Plan)



2
/

(Tactical Plan)



1 5
(Operational Plan)


(Day to Day Actions)

(, 2536 : 82)


(Production Plans),
(Financial Plans), (Facilities Plans), (Marketing Plans)
(Human Resource Plans)
4-2

80

4-2
2 (Standing
Plan)
(Single-use Plan)

(Dubrin Ireland, 1993 : 119)
4-1
4-1

(Strategic Plans)

(Tactical Plans)

(Operational Plans)

1.

2.

3.

1.

2.

3.

1.

2.

3.

4.4.3 (Standing Plans and Single-use Plans)

(Phases)

81

(Operational Plan)

4.4.3.1 (Standing Plans) 4
(Policies, Procedures, Methods and Rules)
) (Policies)




3.00


10

10.00 10.10 . 14.00 14.10 .

) (Procedures)

SOPs (Standard Operating Procedure)
(1)
(2) (3) (4)



) (Methods)


3
1 4 ,

) (Rules)

82

(, 2536 : 81)
4.4.3.2 (Single - use Plans) 4

) (Program)
,
,
(Project)
) (Project)
(Program)

) (Budget)

(Activities), (Project)
(Program)

(, 2528 : 7)

(Sherwood , 2517 : 19)
(Zero - based Budget)

) (Project Schedule)




4.4.4 (Business Plan)

(Executive Summary) ,
(Industry Analysis)

83

, (Company Description)
, (Product and
Service Description) ,
(Market Description) 5


,
(Staffing Description)
, (Financial Projection)
1 5
(Schermerhorn, 1999 : 144)

(Executive
Summary) (Business Fundamentals)
(Be Easy to Read) 20 (Schermerhorn, 1999 : 144)
4.5

(Organizational
Goals) (Strategies and Plans)

(End)
(Means) (Goals) (Organizational Mission)





(Mission Statement)




(1)

84

(We are an environmentally and socially conscious grower, producer and

marketer of wines of the highest quality and value) (2)

(Working in harmony and with respect for the human spirit, we are
committed to sharing information about the enjoyment of food and wine in a lifestyle of moderation and
responsibility) (3)
(We are dedicated to the continuous growth and development of our people and business.)
(Goals
and Plans) (Daft, 2000 :
210-211)
4.5.1 (Strategic Goals )



(Perter Drucker) 8 ,
, , , , ,

4-3
: Daft, 2000 : 207
4.5.2 (Strategic Plans)

85

2 5

15 20

4.5.3 (Tactical)

4.5.4 (Tactical Plans) (Strategic Plans)

(Tactical)
(Strategic Weapon System)
(Strategic Plans)
(Tactical Weapon System)



4.5.5 (Operation Goals)
150 /
90% 10 %
2
4.5.6 (Operational Plans)
(Operational Goals)
(Tactical Plans)

(Operational Plans)
(Individual Career Management)

86

(Operational Goals)

(Schedules)
(Operational Plans)
(Strategic and Tactical Goals)

(Apogee) 150

4.6 (Approaches to Planning)

3
4.6.1 (Inside out and Outside in Planning)





(Niche)

/

(Unique Niche)
(Schermerhorn, 1999 : 145)
4.6.2 (Top - down and Bottom - up Planning)



2

87

(Participation)

(Schermerhorn, 1999 : 146)
4.6.3 (Contingency Planning)



4.7
3
1. (Formulation of Plan)
2. (Implementation of Plan)
3. (Evaluation of Plan)

4-4
4.7.1 (Formulation of Plan)

4.7.1.1

88

4.7.1.2

4.7.1.3

4.7.2 (Implementation of Plan)

(Controlling)

4.7.3 (Evaluation of Plan)

4.8


4-2
4-2

1 5

(Top level Managers) (Strategic Plans)

(Middle level Managers) (Tactical Plans)
(First level Managers) (Operational Plans)

89

4.9

4.9.1


4.9.2



4.9.3



4.9.4





4.9.5


4.9.6

4.9.7


4.10
(Planning Tools and Techniques)

90

4.10.1 (Environmental Scanning)



(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 268)

. . (A.T. Cross Company) (Cross)



. .
(Gillette Companys Waterman S.A.) (Germanys Mountbanc)

(CEO)
(Russell Boss)

.. 1970

60 (Baby
Boomers)







(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 268)

91

3 (Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 268-270)
4.10.1.1 (Competitor Intelligence)

(Environmental Scanning)





(Competitor Intelligence)
(Monsanto Companys Nutrasweet)
90
(The U.S. Food and Drug Administration - FDA)
(Sucarlose) (Johnson &
Johnson) 3
84 2 3 1.5

FDA FDA
FDA

(Suppliers)





(Reverse Engineering)

92

4.10.1.2 (Global Scanning)

(Mitsubishi Trading Company)
60,000

(Information Clipping Services)
24

4.10.1.3 (Use of Scenarios)

5
10 15 20
(Scenarios)

4.10.2 (Forecasting)
(Qualitative Forecasting)
(Qualitative Forecasting)
4.10.2.1 (Qualitative Forecasting)
(Judgmental Method)

(Jury of Opinion)

93

4.10.2.2 (Quantitative Forecasting)

(, 2541 : 87)

(Regression Analysis)
, (Econometric Modeling)



, (Statistical Surveys)
(Poll)

(Schermerhorn, 1999 : 147), (Time Series Analysis)

(Dubrin Ireland, 1993 : 645)
(Moving Average Method), (Naive Method),
(Decomposition Method), (Exponential Smoothing Method)
11 (Census X - 11),
(Box jenkins Method) (Regression Analysis Method) (, 2541 : 89)
4.10.3 (Benchmarking)


Benchmarking
(, 2542 : 251)



(Xerox) (Benchmarking)

(AT&T), (DuPont), (Ford), (Kodak)
(Motorola) (Benchmarking)

94

(Benchmarking) 4 (Robbins Coulter,

1999 : 274)
1) (Benchmarking)

2)

3) (Gap)

4) (Action Plan)

4.10.4 (Budgets)





6
4.10.4.1 (Revenue Budgets)

4.10.4.2 (Expense Budgets)

4.10.4.3 (Profit Budgets)

4.10.4.4 (Cash Budgets)

(Cash Flow)

95

()

4.10.4.5 (Capital Expenditure Budgets)

(Fixed Asset)

4.10.4.6 (Variable and Fixed Budgets)

4.10.5 (Schedule) (Day-to-day Problems)

(Operational Planning)
(Schedule)

4.10.5.1 (Load Chart) (Gantt
Chart)

4.10.5.2 (Gantt Chart) . (Henry L.

Gantt) (Output)

(Bar Graph)

4.10.5.3 PERT (PERT Network Analysis) PERT

Program Evaluation and Review Technique


PERT (Evarts
, 2541 : 266)

PERT

96

PERT


PERT
(Bottlenecks)

PERT 4 (Event)
, (Activities)
, (Slack Time)

(Critical Path)
PERT
PERT (Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 281)
1)
2)
3)
(Events)

(Activities) PERT
4)
(Optimistic time t0) (Most - likely tm)
(Pessimistic time - tp) (Expected time - te)
te =

t 0 + 4t m + t p
6

(Optimistic time t0)

(, 2541 : 271)

97

(Most likely - tm)

(, 2541 : 271)
(Pessimistic time - tp)


(, 2541 : 271)
(Expected time - te)




PERT (weighted Average)
(, 2541 : 273)



(, 2541 : 272)
5)

()

PERT
12 4-5

4-5 PERT

98

4-5
1.
2. (Research Proposal)
3.
4.
5. (Try out/Pre-test)
6. (Validity)
7. (Reliability)
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
4-5

1, 2, 3
A, B, C , ,


(Research Proposal)


(Try out/Pre-test)

(Validity) (Reliability)





(, 2541 : 272)

99

1
2
2
3
4
5
6
4
8
9
10
11

2
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

to - t m - t p
8 - 12 16
6 10 12
6 10 12
1 2 3
1 2 3
1 2 3
1 2 3
1 2 3
8 12 16
1 2 3
6 10 12
6 10 12

te
12
10
10
2
2
2
2
2
12
2
10
10

( te )

1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12 =
74

1-2-4-8-9-10-12
=
58

(Critical Path)

(Slack Time)
0 PERT



4.10.6 (Breakeven Analysis)
(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 283)




( , 2542 : 66) (Breakeven-BE)
(Price P), (Variable Cost VC)
(Total Fixed Cost TFC) (Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 283) (Fixed Cost)
(Total Fixed Cost)

100

(Variable Cost)
( , 2542 :
273, 870) (Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 283)
(Robbins Coulter,
1999 : 283)
BE

TFC / (P VC)

(Robbins
Coulter, 1999 : 283)

4-6
: Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 284
(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 283) 0.10
27,000 0.04
27,000/(0.10 - 0.04) = 450,000 450,000
45,000 (450,000 x 0.10 )
(0.10 -0.04 ) = 0.06 (0.06 x
450,000 ) = 27,000

101

4.10.7 (Linear Programming)

(Robbins
Coulter, 1999 : 283)




, ,
, ,
,

( )

(Operation Research) (, 2543 : 93)


(Linear Programming)
1.
( , 2543 : 13 14)
2.

3. ( , 2543 : 13 14)
4. ( ,
2543 : 13 14)
5.
(Decision
Variables) . ,
(Objective Function)
( Maximization) (
Minimization) (Constraints)

(, 2543 : 94)

102

(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 284 286)

2 2

2

10 18
(Decision Variables) P (Potpourri)
S (Scented Candles) 2
(Objective Function) 2 Max Profit = 10P + 18S
4-3
4-3

()
()

2
4

2
2

10
18
: Robbins Coulte , 1999 : 284 286

()
1,200
900

2
2 (Constraints)
2P + 4S 1,200
2P + 2S 900

4-7

4-7 (Linear Programming)

: Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 286

103

(BE)
1,200 600
(1,200 2 )
300 (1,200 4 )
(FD)
450 ( 900 2 )
450
2 C
A 2 B 5,400 ( 300
x 18 + 0 ) D 4,500 (
450 x 10 + 0 ) C 5,700 ( 150 x
18 + 300 x 10 )
4.10.8 (Queuing Theory) (Waiting line Theory)
(Operational Planning)
(
, 2543 : 402)

(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 286)





( , 2543 : 402 403)
(Tellers)
, ,
(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 286
287), ,
( , 2543 : 402 )
2
(Arrival Rate) 2
1
(Service Rate)

104

( , 2543 : 403 404)
(Robbins Coulter, 1999 : 286 287) (Tellers)

12
4 2
(Probability P)
Pn =
n = 3 , arrival rate = 2 , service rate = 4

P3 =
P3 =
P3 =
P3 =

0.06

3
1 16 3
6

4.10.9 (Probability Theory)

(Prosche)
968 35.5 (Standard
Deviation) 3.5
95 100 28.6 42.4 (1.96 x 3.5 (S.D) = 6.86; 35.5 6.86)

105

4.10.10 (Simulation)

(Monte Carlo)






( , 2543 : 395)








4.11


2

4.11.1 (Convention Planning)

5W 1H 5W

106

1H What, When, Where, Why How

, , , ,
what ,When
, Where , Why
, Who How

ISO 9002

. 1,906 1,504 2
2,960
11 (400 )
. 4 (160 ) 2 (80 )
1 (40 )
4 (160 )
128 Kbps

128 Kbps 1

1.

2.

107

3.
4.

2,960 400

3 7

1 31 2544
1. l
2. 3

1.
2.
3.
4. (Lease Line)
128 Kbps

649,140 ( )

2544 200 /
1. . 1 976
195,200.2. . 2 930
186,000.3. 632
126,400.4. 422
84,400. 1
592,000. 2
1,184,000.-

108

1. ()
2. 128 Kbps
( 48,000 x 12 )
3.
( 9,500 x 12 )

7%

8,000.576,000.114,000.698,000.48,860.649,140.534,860.-

1.

2. 2544
3.
4.
5.

4.11.2 (Logical Framework Planning)

.. 2525



(Logical
Framework Matrix) Log Frame (, 2528 : 8)
5 x 4 4 x 4




(, 2528 : 8-9) 4-4

109

4-4 Logical Framework Matrix

(Objectively
(Narrative Summary) Verifiable Indicator)
NS
OVI
(Goal)

(Purpose)
(Output)

(Activity)
(Input)
: , 2528 : 14

/
(Means of
Verification) MOV

(Important
Assumption) LA

4-5
4-5

- Home Page
-
- -
2,960 128 Kbps
2,960
- 1

E-mail Address

IPA Address
..2544

-

128 Kbps -

110

4-5 ()

- - -
-

2544

8,000
200
-

9,500
-


48,000

128 Kbps

-
LAN
2

400

1,000

Main Server

200

111

4-5 ()

- -
- -

128
(Lease Line)

Kbps
128 Kbps
- 9,500

400
- - -
48,000

400 5