16

2 Power System Load

Table 2.2 Degree of electrication and load assumptions for households, authors index.

Degree of electrication

Peak load of one household (kW) 5

Portion of peak load per household PW (kW) 0.771.0

Degree of simultaneous usage g 0.150.2

Remarks

EG1

Low electrication (old buildings, lighting only), today of less importance Partial electrication (lighting, cooking) Complete electrication (without electrical heating or air-conditioning Total electrication (with electrical heating and air-conditioning)

EG2

1.01.2

0.120.15

EG3

30

1.82.1

0.060.07

EG4

15

10.512

0.70.8

Households have different grades of usage of electrical appliances. Usage depends on differing attitudes of individual groups within the population to the use of electrical energy, on the age of the house and also on the ages and the incomes of the inhabitants. As indicated in Table 2.2, one can divide the different household appliances in terms of the degree of electrication of the household or building. As not all appliances within one household are in operation at the same time and as not all households have the same consumption habits at the same time, the respective portion of the peak load PW has to be set for the total load determination, which for increasing number of housing units reaches the limit value g. The degree of simultaneous usage gn for the number of households NWE (denoted n in Equation 2.8) can be calculated according to Equation 2.8, whereas values for g are taken from Table 2.2. g n = g + (1 g ) n 0.75
(2.8)

The proportion of peak load to be taken for the load forecast Ptot for households with different degrees of electrication (I = 1, . . . , 4) can be calculated using Equation 2.9. Ptot =

i =1, 4

ni

PWi ni

(2.9)

The loads for commercial, industrial and common consumers are added to the load of the housing units.

2.6 Load Forecast with Standardized Load Curves

17

2.6 Load Forecast with Standardized Load Curves

Another possibility for the determination of the system load is based on the annual energy consumption of the individual consumer or consumer groups, which can be taken from the annual electricity bill. The system load can be determined by means of standardized load curves or load proles [4] for different consumer groups: Household consumers Commercial consumers of different kinds (24-hour shift, shop or manufacturing enterprise, opened or closed at weekends, seasonal enterprise, etc.) Agricultural enterprises of different kinds (dairy farming or water pumping) Other customers (schools, public buildings, etc.). Individual load proles of special customers and bulk loads can be obtained by measurement. As consumption proles of the particular customer groups not only change with time of day but also show day-of-week and seasonal changes, characteristic days are dened, such as working-day, Saturday, Sunday (or Friday in Islamic countries) and holiday as well as seasonal differences in winter, summer and transition periods. It is to be noted that the consumption of households is subject to substantially stronger seasonal uctuations than is the case with other consumer groups. The load proles of characteristic days are adjusted dynamically as explained in the example below. Typical household load proles are presented in Figure 2.2. The calculation proceeds from a standardized diagram of the load, which corresponds to an annual consumption of 1000 kWh. Small deviations, for example, due to changes of holidays or leap years, can normally be neglected in the context of power system planning. On the basis of the allocation of the respective load proles to the different days in the different seasons, the individual daily load curves are adjusted dynamically [4] by means of a factor Fd according to Equation 2.10. Fd = 3.92 10 10 d 4 + 3.2 10 7 d 3 7.02 10 5 d 2 + 2.1 10 3 d + 1.24
(2.10)

The quantity d is the current day of the year, with d = 1 for 1 January of each year. The time dependence of the dynamization factor Fd during a year is presented in Figure 2.3. After the daily load curves have been corrected with the dynamization factor according to Figure 2.3, the standardized consumer load curve of the year is determined. Taking account of the annual consumption of the consumers, the load of each customer and thus of the total customer group can be determined for each time. This load can also be used for load forecast after the number of expected new consumers is known. Furthermore, the data can be used for the management of load balance circle. By adding up the yearly load diagrams of all consumers or consumer groups to be supplied via the same feeder or transformer

18

2 Power System Load

150

(a)
Load factor [W/(MWh a1)]
120

90

60

30

0 0:15 300

3:15

6:15

9:15

12:15 15:15 Time of day

18:15

21:15

(b)
250

Load factor [W/(MWh a1)]

200

150

100

50

0 0:15

3:15

6:15

9:15

12:15 15:15 Time of day

18:15

21:15

Figure 2.2 Standardized load proles for household load [5]. (a) Summer working-day; (b) winter working-day; (c) summer Sunday; (d) winter Sunday.

station, the yearly peak and low load can be determined as the basis for planning. Two more examples of load proles are presented in Figures 2.4 and 2.5. The differences in the load prole for the bakery shop are signicant, whereas the load proles for the dairy farming are nearly the same on working-days and on weekends. In principle the load prole of other consumer groups, such as hotels and small business enterprises, are quite different from those of household consumers [6]. Differences can obviously be seen due to the work time and/or utilization periods, and the daily variations can be very large, but the seasonal variations are comparatively small. As an example, the load diagrams of a metal-working enterprise

2.6 Load Forecast with Standardized Load Curves

300

19

(c)
250

Load factor [W/(MWh a1)]

200

150

100

50

0 0:15

3:15

6:15

9:15

12:15 15:15 Time of day

18:15

21:15

300

(d)
250

Load factor [W/(MWh a1)]

200

150

100

50

0 0:15

3:15

6:15

9:15

12:15 15:15 Time of day

18:15

21:15

Figure 2.2 Continued.

1.4 1.2

Correction factor Fd in p.u.

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Day of the year

Figure 2.3 Time dependence of the dynamization factor Fd.

20

2 Power System Load

300

(a)
250

Load factor [W/(MWh a1)]

200

150

100

50

0 0:15

3:15

6:15

9:15

12:15 15:15 Time of day

18:15

21:15

150

(b)
Load factor [W/(MWh a1)]
120

90

60

30

0 0:15

3:15

6:15

9:15

12:15 15:15 Time of day

18:15

21:15

Figure 2.4 Standard load prole of a bakery shop [5]. (a) Summer working-day; (b) summer Sunday.

(Figure 2.6a) and of a hotel (Figure 2.6b) are presented for one week in summer in each case. The diagrams for the winter period differ only marginally from those in the summer.

2.7 Typical Time Course of Power System Load

Electricity can be stored only in small quantities and at high technical and nancial expense. The power and energy demand of each second, hour, day and season must be covered by different types of power stations. The variation of the power

2.7 Typical Time Course of Power System Load

300

21

(a)
250

Load factor [W/(MWh a1)]

200

150

100

50

0 0:15

3:15

6:15

9:15

12:15 15:15 Time of day

18:15

21:15

300

(b)
250

Load factor [W/(MWh a1)]

200

150

100

50

0 0:15

3:15

6:15

9:15

12:15 15:15 Time of day

18:15

21:15

Figure 2.5 Standard load prole of an agricultural enterprise with dairy farming [5]. (a) Summer working-day; (b) summer Sunday.

system load in Germany in the year 2006 was between 61.5 GW and 77.8 GW (ratio of low load to high load equal 0.79). This ratio can be completely different in other countries, especially if there are no or only few industrial consumers. Considering, for example, a power system in an Arabian country with only 7.4% industrial load, the system load is determined mainly by air-conditioning devices and lighting. Taking a weekend day in August, the load varied between 704 MW and 1324 MW (ratio between low load and peak load equal 0.53). On the day of the yearly low load, a weekday in February, the load varied between 274 MW and 450 MW (ratio of low load to peak load equal 0.61).

22

2 Power System Load

300.0

(a)
250.0

Load [W/(MWh a1)]

Winter day

200.0
Summer day

150.0

100.0

50.0

Working day
0.0 0:15 3:00 5:45 8:30 1:15 4:00 6:45 11:15 14:00 16:45 19:30 22:15

Saturday
9:30 2:15 5:00 12:15 15:00 17:45 20:30 23:15

Sunday
7:45 10:30 13:15 16:00 18:45 21:30

Time of day
300.0

(b)
Winter day

250.0

Summer day

Load [W/(MWh a1)]

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

Working day
0.0 0:15 3:15 6:15 9:15 0:45 3:45 12:15 15:15 18:15 21:15

Saturday
6:45 9:45 1:15 4:15 12:45 15:45 18:45 21:45

Sunday
7:15 10:15 13:15 16:15 19:15 22:15

Time of day

Figure 2.6 Weekly load diagrams of business enterprises [6, 7]. (a) Metal-processing enterprise; (b) hotel.

23

3 Planning Principles and Planning Criteria

3.1 Planning Principles

The aim of planning electrical power systems is to fully serve the interests of the consumers to be supplied with electricity. The active and reactive power of the supply area to be expected in the long-range planning period are taken as basic parameters. In order to determine the conguration of power system in terms of technical, operational, economic, legal and ecological criteria, planning principles have to be dened and used. High priority is to be given to the supply of consumers with a dened need for supply reliability, which can be accomplished if sufcient data are available on system disturbances (faults, scheduled and unscheduled outages) or by means of quantitative and if necessary additional qualitative criteria. The reliability of the electrical power supply system (power station, transmission and distribution system, switchgear, etc.) is inuenced by: The fundamental structure of the power system conguration (topology) Example: The consumer is supplied only via one line (overhead line or cable) forming a radial supply system. In case of failure of the line, the supply is interrupted until the line is repaired. The selection of equipment Qualied and detailed specication and tendering of any equipment, consistent use of international norms for testing and standardization of equipment guarantee high-quality installations at favorable costs on an economic basis. The operational mode of the power system The desired reliability of supply can be guaranteed only if the power system is operated under the conditions for which it was planned. Earthing of neutral point A single-phase fault with earth connection (ground fault) in a system with resonance earthing does not lead to a disconnection of the equipment, whereas a single-phase earth fault in a system with low impedance neutral grounding (short-circuit) leads to a disconnection of the faulted equipment and in some cases to interruption of supply.

24

3 Planning Principles and Planning Criteria

Qualication of employees Apart from good engineering qualications, continuing operational training of personnel obviously leads to an increase of employees competence and through this to an increase of supply reliability. Regular maintenance Regular and preventive maintenance according to specied criteria is important to preserve the availability of equipment. Uniformity of planning, design and operation Operational experience must be included in the planning of power systems and in the specication of the equipment. Safety standards for operation The low safety factor for human failure can be improved by automation and implementation of safety standards, thus improving the supply reliability. It is axiomatic that 100% security and reliability of electrical power supply cannot be achieved and does not have to be achieved. In each case a compromise between supply reliability, the design of the system and any equipment and the operational requirements must be agreed, and of course the interests of the consumers are to be considered. The planning should be guided by the following precept:
Reliability as high as necessary, design and operation as economical as possible!

Prior to the denition of planning principles, agreement must be obtained concerning acceptable frequency of outages, their duration up to the reestablishment of the supply and the amount of energy not supplied and/or the loss of power due to outages. Outages include both planned or scheduled outages due to maintenance and unplanned or unscheduled outages due to system faults. Unscheduled outages result from the following: The equipment itself, the cause here being the reduction of insulation strength, leading to short-circuits and ash-over Malfunctioning of control, monitoring and protection equipment (protection relays), which can cause switch-off of circuit-breakers External inuences, such as lightning strokes or earthquakes, which lead to the loss of equipment and installations Human inuences, such as crash-accidents involving installations (overhead towers) or cable damage due to earthworks, followed by disconnection of the overhead line or the cable. Even with careful design and selection of equipment, loading and overloading sequences in normal operation cycles, detailed monitoring of the system operation and preventive or regular maintenance have to be considered. Faults and outages are difcult to foresee. Thus the frequency and duration of outages can hardly be predicted and can only be estimated on the basis of evaluation and assessment of disturbance statistics.

3.1 Planning Principles

25

The duration of outages up to the reestablishment of the supply can be estimated as a maximum value and is determined by the following: Power system conguration and planning criteria If the power system is planned in such a way that the outage of one item of equipment or power system element does not lead to overloading of the remaining equipment, safe power supply is secured in case of failure of any piece of equipment, independently of the repair and reconnect duration. Design of monitoring, protection and switching equipment If switchgear in a power system can only be operated manually and locally, then the duration of the supply interruption is longer and thus the energy not supplied is larger than if the switches are operated automatically or from a central load dispatch center. Availability of spare parts A sufcient number of spare parts reduces the duration of supply interruption and the amount of energy not supplied, as the repair can be carried out much more quickly. Availability of personnel (repair) The timely availability of skilled and qualied personnel in sufcient number reduces the repair time signicantly. Availability of personnel (fault analysis) The causes of failures and faults in the power system have to be analyzed and assessed carefully prior to any too-hasty reestablishment of the supply after outages, in order to avoid further failures due to maloperation and erroneous switching. Availability of technical reserves A sufcient and suitable reserve is needed to cover the outage of any equipment. This need not imply the availability of equipment of identical designed to the faulty equipment; for example, after the outage of a HV/MV-transformer the supply can be ensured temporarily by a mobile emergency power generator. The amount of energy not supplied and/or the loss of power must be established taking account of the importance of the consumers. One might accept, say, a range for the energy not supplied between 500 kWh for urban supply and major customers (for example, a poultry farm) and 2000 kWh for rural supply or less important consumers (for example, skating-rink). The results of these assumptions are shown diagrammatically in Figure 3.1 (average value of the energy not supplied equals 1000 kWh). Figure 3.1 can be interpreted with the examples (a) to (d) below: (a) The loss of a 0.4 kV cable loaded with 100 kW is acceptable for a period between approximately 5 and 12 hours. The faulty cable must be repaired during this time or restitution of supply has to be achieved by other measures, such as local switch-over of the supply to other LV-systems or by mobile emergency power generators.