Professional Documents
Culture Documents
July 2009 ISM Report
July 2009 ISM Report
July 2009 ISM Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing
reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire
United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local
vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the
results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of
June 2009.
Production Growing
New Orders, Employment and Inventories Contracting
Prices Unchanged
Supplier Deliveries Slower
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for
Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "Manufacturing
continues to contract at a slower rate, but the trends in the indexes are encouraging as
seven of 18 industries reported growth in June. Most encouraging is the gain in the
Production Index, which is up 12.1 percentage points in the last two months to 52.5
percent. Aggressive inventory reduction continues and indications are that the de-
stocking cycle is at or near the end in most industries, as the Customers' Inventories
Index remained below 50 percent for the third consecutive month. The Prices Index was
unchanged from May, indicating that the supply/demand balance is improving. Overall, a
slow recovery for manufacturing is forming based on the current trends in the ISM data."
PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
JUNE 2009
Series Series Percentage Rate
Index Index Point of Trend*
Index June May Change Direction Change (Months)
PMI 44.8 42.8 +2.0 Contracting Slower 17
New Orders 49.2 51.1 -1.9 Contracting From 1
Growing
Production 52.5 46.0 +6.5 Growing From 1
Contracting
Employment 40.7 34.3 +6.4 Contracting Slower 11
Supplier 50.6 49.8 +0.8 Slower From Faster 1
Deliveries
Inventories 30.8 32.9 -2.1 Contracting Faster 38
Customers' 43.5 46.0 -2.5 Too Low Faster 3
Inventories
Prices 50.0 43.5 +6.5 Unchanged From 1
Decreasing
Backlog of 47.5 48.0 -0.5 Contracting Faster 14
Orders
Exports 49.5 48.0 +1.5 Contracting Slower 9
Imports 46.0 42.5 +3.5 Contracting Slower 17
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum Based Products; Copper; Corn; Diesel Fuel; Oil; and Plastics.
Caustic Soda (4); Corrugated Containers (6); Steel (10); and Steel Products (5).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each
item.
PMI
Manufacturing contracted at a slower rate in June as the PMI registered 44.8 percent,
which is 2 percentage points higher than the 42.8 percent reported in May. This is the
17th consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50
percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50
percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion
of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the second consecutive
month in the overall economy, and continuing contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates
that the average PMI for January through June (39.2 percent) corresponds to a 0.6 percent
decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, if the PMI for June (44.8
percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 1.1 percent increase in real GDP annually."
New Orders
ISM's New Orders Index registered 49.2 percent in June, 1.9 percentage points lower
than the 51.1 percent registered in May. May represented the first month of growth in
new orders, following 17 consecutive months of contraction. A New Orders Index above
48.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's
series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The 10 industries reporting growth in new orders in June — listed in order — are:
Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Plastics &
Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; and Chemical Products. The five industries contracting in June — listed in
order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products;
Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.
New % % %
Orders Better Same Worse Net Index
Jun 2009 28 48 24 +4 49.2
May 2009 27 54 19 +8 51.1
Apr 2009 31 40 29 +2 47.2
Mar 2009 28 31 41 -13 41.2
Production
ISM's Production Index registered 52.5 percent in June, which is an increase of 6.5
percentage points from May's reading of 46 percent. An index above 50.4 percent, over
time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial
Production figures. This is the first month the Production Index has moved above 50
percent, following nine months of contraction.
The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of June — listed in
order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing &
Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products;
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The
five industries reporting decreases in production in June — listed in order — are:
Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills;
Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.
% % %
Production Better Same Worse Net Index
Jun 2009 32 46 22 +10 52.5
May 2009 23 52 25 -2 46.0
Apr 2009 21 45 34 -13 40.4
Mar 2009 17 39 44 -27 36.4
Employment
ISM's Employment Index registered 40.7 percent in June, which is 6.4 percentage points
higher than the 34.3 percent reported in May. This is the 11th consecutive month of
decline in employment. An Employment Index above 49.7 percent, over time, is
generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on
manufacturing employment.
Three of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in June:
Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Miscellaneous
Manufacturing. The 13 industries that reported decreases in employment during June —
listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products;
Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Primary
Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products;
Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and
Plastics & Rubber Products.
% % %
Employment Higher Same Lower Net Index
Jun 2009 9 66 25 -16 40.7
May 2009 8 56 36 -28 34.3
Apr 2009 7 58 35 -28 34.4
Mar 2009 8 41 51 -43 28.1
Supplier Deliveries
The five industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in June are: Printing & Related
Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products;
Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting faster
deliveries in June are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer &
Electronic Products.
Supplier % % %
Deliveries Slower Same Faster Net Index
Jun 2009 8 87 5 +3 50.6
May 2009 8 86 6 +2 49.8
Apr 2009 5 80 15 -10 44.9
Mar 2009 7 73 20 -13 43.6
Inventories
Manufacturers' inventories contracted in June as the Inventories Index registered 30.8
percent, which is 2.1 percentage points lower than May's reading of 32.9 percent. An
Inventories Index greater than 42.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with
expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing
inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
Textile Mills is the only one of the 18 manufacturing industries reporting higher
inventories in June. The 13 industries that reported decreases in June — listed in order —
are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical
Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer &
Electronic Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products;
Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing;
Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
% % %
Inventories Higher Same Lower Net Index
Jun 2009 8 46 46 -38 30.8
May 2009 10 46 44 -34 32.9
Apr 2009 11 47 42 -31 33.6
Mar 2009 9 48 43 -34 32.2
Customers' Inventories*
The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 43.5 percent in June, 2.5 percentage
points lower than the 46 percent reported in May. The index indicates that respondents
believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time. This is the third consecutive
month the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, following eight
months above 50 percent.
Two industries reported higher customers' inventories during June: Furniture & Related
Products; and Chemical Products. The 10 industries that reported lower customers'
inventories during June — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral
Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics &
Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.
Prices*
The ISM Prices Index registered 50 percent in June, 6.5 percentage points higher than the
43.5 percent reported in May. Since the index is at the mid-point of 50, this indicates that
manufacturers are paying the same prices on average when compared to the previous
month. While 22 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 22 percent
reported paying lower prices, 56 percent of supply executives reported paying the same
prices as in May. A Prices Index above 47.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent
with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.
The eight industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of June — listed
in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal
Products. The eight industries that reported paying lower prices during June — listed in
order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities;
Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Machinery; Computer &
Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.
% % %
Prices Higher Same Lower Net Index
Jun 2009 22 56 22 0 50.0
May 2009 10 67 23 -13 43.5
Apr 2009 7 50 43 -36 32.0
Mar 2009 7 48 45 -38 31.0
Backlog of Orders*
ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.5 percent in June, 0.5 percentage point
lower than the 48 percent reported in May. Of the 84 percent of respondents who reported
their backlog of orders, 21 percent reported greater backlogs, 26 percent reported smaller
backlogs, and 53 percent reported no change from May.
The six industries reporting increased order backlogs in June — listed in order — are:
Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities;
Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous
Manufacturing. The eight industries that reported decreases in order backlogs during June
— listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment,
Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Transportation
Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal
Products.
Backlog of % % % %
Orders Reporting Greater Same Less Net Index
Jun 2009 84 21 53 26 -5 47.5
May 2009 85 19 58 23 -4 48.0
Apr 2009 86 13 55 32 -19 40.5
Mar 2009 83 11 49 40 -29 35.5
ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 49.5 percent in June, 1.5 percentage points
higher than the 48 percent reported in May. This is the ninth consecutive month of
contraction in the New Export Orders Index.
The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in June are: Printing & Related
Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment,
Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Miscellaneous
Manufacturing. The eight industries that reported decreases in new export orders in June
— listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied
Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products;
Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.
New Export % % % %
Orders Reporting Higher Same Lower Net Index
Jun 2009 75 12 75 13 -1 49.5
May 2009 77 7 82 11 -4 48.0
Apr 2009 77 13 62 25 -12 44.0
Mar 2009 80 9 60 31 -22 39.0
Imports*
% % % %
Imports Reporting Higher Same Lower Net Index
Jun 2009 81 7 78 15 -8 46.0
May 2009 83 12 61 27 -15 42.5
Apr 2009 85 10 64 26 -16 42.0
Mar 2009 85 5 56 39 -34 33.0
* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders
Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures decreased 5 days to 106 days.
Average lead time for Production Materials increased 1 day to 46 days. Average lead
time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 1 day to 22 days.
Percent Reporting
Hand-
Capital to- 30 60 90 6 1 Average
Expenditures Mouth Days Days Days Months Year+ Days
Jun 2009 29 10 12 15 23 11 106
May 2009 30 9 13 12 23 13 111
Apr 2009 36 7 11 12 24 10 101
Mar 2009 30 11 14 11 23 11 104
Hand-
Production to- 30 60 90 6 1 Average
Materials Mouth Days Days Days Months Year+ Days
Jun 2009 30 39 16 10 2 3 46
May 2009 31 38 21 4 3 3 45
Apr 2009 31 38 21 4 4 2 44
Mar 2009 35 35 20 3 5 2 43
Hand-
MRO to- 30 60 90 6 1 Average
Supplies Mouth Days Days Days Months Year+ Days
Jun 2009 49 38 11 2 0 0 22
May 2009 52 33 12 2 1 0 23
Apr 2009 59 28 8 3 2 0 22
Mar 2009 56 33 7 3 1 0 21
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers
based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM
makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the
individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain
and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-
making.
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments
(PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then
seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting
primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional
arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal
adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject
annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a
composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the
indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries
and Inventories.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary
measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI
reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally
expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of
41.2 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic
product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 41.2 percent, it is generally declining. The
distance from 50 percent or 41.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or
decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure
point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by
regression analysis.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time,
the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for
Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating
(MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six
months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days.
These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no
significant seasonal pattern.
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for
Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is
the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most
respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its
standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has
been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during
World War II.
The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on
ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m.
(ET).
The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the July 2009 data will be
released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Monday, August 3, 2009.