DEVELOPMENTS IN NEPAL; LESSONS

FOR INDIA

Om Prakash Yadav

Madhav kumar Nepal, an original habitant of Sitamarhi (Bihar) has been

sworn in as the 2nd Prime Minister of Nepal. Although he is said to have
been elected unopposed, the Communist Party of Nepal led by Puspa
Kamal Dahal Prachanda has not supported his election. It is suggestive of
the fact that things in Nepal would not go smoothly in time to come. The
infant democracy of tiny Himalayan country, Nepal, has thus been put into
incubator for supplying oxygen and dosing some more testing medicines
to keep it survived. The abrupt resignation of Pushpa Kamal Dahal
Prachanda over General Katwal, the Chief of Armed Staff’s issue, has
revealed that democracy is yet to take firm roots here. Some experts
believe that Prachanda did it out of sheer political immaturity and he
should have waited and not taken extreme step of outright resignation.

Any way with the sworn in of Madhav Nepal, the crisis seems to have
passed off temporarily, Nepal is likely to face some more political
upheavals in near future. Now since both the President and the PM are of
Madhesi origin therefore the feeling of Madhesi hegemony over Paharis in
Nepalese politics is gaining ground. This feeling may led to development
of a sense of disenchantment amongst Maoists especially loyal to
Prachanda which may derail Comprehensive Peace Process (CPA).

The birth of democracy in Nepal could be possible after CPA was signed by
Seven Parties Alliance (SPA) and the Maoists. It was a land mark in the
political history of not only of Nepal but of the entire South Asian region in
the sense that it was the first ever experiment of electoral politics with
Maoism in a political laboratory. It was altogether a new concept and
nobody even in China had ever thought of such experiment. It is a positive
sign and in India also, the idea of bringing Naxalites into the electoral
politics started gaining grounds. In Jharkhand, one Kameshwar Baitha, a
hardcore Maoist won from Palamau Parliamentary election and became MP
in 15th Loksabha.

The wedding of Maoism with election led a situation to develop in Nepal

and the Monarchy was dismantled giving birth to republic. The Peace
process was initiated and constituent assembly was voted to existence.
UN mission in Nepal (UNMIN) which oversaw the surrender of Maoists
guerrillas also played a vital role.
The first set back of Prachanda, the supreme leader of Maoists in Nepal
came in the elections which were held to constitute the Constituent
Assembly. In this election he could secure only 229 out of total 601 seats
bagging only 38.1% votes. After initial confusion as to whether Prachanda
will like to be PM or President, he finally choose to become the first PM of
Nepal and the Presidency went to one Ram Baran Yadav, a madhesi origin
of Nepali Congress. Prachanda wanted to integrate his People Liberation
Army, the PLA, erstwhile guerrillas, with the Nepali Army. In fact this
integration plan had been one of the most important conditions of
Prachanda to agree to the CPA. His Plans of integration has been not
acceptable to India for obvious political and security reasons. Prachanda’s
insistence of this plan smacked the Chinese influence and perhaps due to
this reason it was not acceptable to other left wing parties like UML and
Communist Party of Nepal ML also. Every one feared of Prachandisation of
Nepal Army.

SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA AND WHAT INDIA SHOULD DO NOW- India

cannot remain indifferent to what is going on and what is likely to happen
here. The developments in this country are certainly going to have
strategic, political and security impact on India. India perforce needs to
employ a range of diplomatic measures but at the same time should
ensure that Nepal or Nepalese should not feel hurt of being interfered with
their internal affairs. In fact the naiveté of our political and diplomatic
establishments have already done huge damage to our image of being
neutral during Jan andolan phase II, after which the Monarchy was thrown
out. The Nepalese psyche still feels that India was favouring King
Gynendra when public at large was in no mood to spare the King. Why do
we fail to understand the public psyche? We sent Dr. Karan Singh as an
envoy to Nepal to avert the crisis who was somehow related to the King’s
dynasty. It evoked strong reaction amongst the public against India. This
time we should avoid playing the game with emotions. Foreign policy
should be based on pragmatism rather that idealism. S.M. Krishna will
have to apply his diplomatic wit with utmost fineness or else it may
boomerang. We win wars but lose diplomacy. This is the paradox of our
foreign policy. Tashkent and Simla Agreement are the best examples of
our failures in diplomacy.

The Chinese influence on Nepal is perceptible in almost every walk of

life. Any further crisis may provide China more conducive and congenial
environment to intrude into the governance and society more intensely
than ever before. The Madhesi and Pahari divide of Nepalese civil society
is almost vertical. The further intrusion of Chinese would aggravate the
situation and thus would make the conditions in Nepal more hostile for
India.
The first and foremost task that the political parties are required to do is
to see that this newly formed government runs till constitution is drafted
and ratified. Any mishandling of the situation may snow ball into
withdrawal of Prachanda from the CPA, the result of which would be
catastrophic. The entire CPA may de-rail and the security situation across
the Indo-Nepal border would deteriorate. The UNMIN, which has overseen
the disarming of PLA, has categorically conveyed its dissatisfaction. The
reports suggest that only few thousands of 303 rifles, country made guns,
and small number of ammunitions were surrendered. It means that the
PLA cadres still has enough arms and ammunitions with them and in case
of failure of CPA and their subsequent reversal into jungles for launching
agitation, these arms could be used. Development of such type of
situation is unaffordable for India; we are already in a war like situation on
North-West fronts, thanks to the Talibanisation of areas like Swat, Mingora,
Shangla, Dir and Buner in Pakistan.

The Nepalese leaders on the other hand should concentrate on drafting of

the Constitution, a task that is least attended so far. Reports coming from
unconfirmed sources suggest that the drafting of the Constitution has not
yet begun. If the present trend of political bickering goes unabated, the
situation would get out of control and unprecedented political crisis would
crop up. India can provide some help in this regard, of course with the
consent of the parties in power. We have galaxy of eminent constitutional
luminaries who can be of immense help for them in drafting a
Constitution, if their services are solicited.