The Shale Gas Market 2013-2023

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Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Overview of the Shale Gas Market 1.2 Benefits of This Report 1.3 Who is This Report For? 1.4 Methodology 1.5 Global Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 1.6 Leading National Shale Gas Market Forecasts 2013-2023

2. Introduction to the Shale Gas Market

2.1 Global Shale Gas Resources 2.2 Global Shale Gas Market Emphasis 2.3 Global Shale Gas Economics 2.4 Current Trends in the Shale Gas Market 2.4.1 Natural Gas Prices 2.4.2 Increasing Influence of Large Multi-National Companies 2.4.3 Growing Number of Joint Ventures 2.4.4 Improving Operational Efficiency 2.4.5 Shift from Gas to Liquids 2.4.6 Hedging not Managing to Cover Losses

3. Global Shale Gas Market 2013-2023

3.1 Global Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 3.2 Global Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 3.3 Emulating the US Shale Gas Revolution? 3.3.1 Geology, Industry, Regulation, Pipelines, Water, Demand, Finance 3.3.2 Shale Gas in the US-Canadian Market and the Rest of the World

4. Leading National Shale Gas Markets 2013-2023

4.1 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Forecast 2013-2023

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4.1.1 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Share Forecast 2013, 2018, 2023 4.2 Global Shale Gas Market Barriers to Entry Analysis 4.2.1 National Shale Gas Market Barriers to Entry Analysis 4.3 US Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.3.1 US Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.3.2 US Shale Gas Market Analysis 4.4 Canadian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.4.1 Canadian Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.4.2 Canadian Shale Gas Market Analysis 4.5 Chinese Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.5.1 Chinese Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.5.2 Chinese Shale Gas Market Analysis 4.6 Argentinean Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.6.1 Argentinean Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.6.2 Argentinean Shale Gas Market Analysis 4.7 Australian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.7.1 Australian Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.7.2 Australian Shale Gas Market Analysis 4.8 Polish Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.8.1 Polish Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.8.2 Polish Shale Gas Market Analysis 4.9 Mexican Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.9.1 Mexican Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.9.2 Mexican Shale Gas Market Analysis 4.10 Indian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.10.1 Indian Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.10.2 Indian Shale Gas Market Analysis 4.11 Rest of the World Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.11.1 Rest of the World Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 4.11.2 Rest of the World Shale Gas Market Analysis

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5. PEST Analysis of the Shale Gas Market 2013-2023
5.1 Political Factors 5.2 Economic Factors 5.3 Social Factors 5.4 Technological Factors

6. Leading Companies in the Shale Gas Market

6.1 Chesapeake Energy Company Profile 6.2 BHP Billiton Company Profile 6.3 ExxonMobil Company Profile 6.4 Southwestern Energy Company Profile 6.5 Royal Dutch Shell Company Profile 6.6 Antero Resources Company Profile 6.7 Range Resources Company Profile 6.8 Devon Energy Company Profile 6.9 CONSOL Energy Company Profile 6.10 EQT Corporation Company Profile 6.11 Other Leading Companies in the Shale Gas Market

7. Conclusions
7.1 Shale Gas Market Outlook 7.2 Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints 7.2.1 Shale Gas Market Drivers 7.2.2 Shale Gas Market Restraints 7.3 Leading National Shale Gas Market Forecasts 2013-2023

8. Glossary

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List of Tables
Table 1.1 Leading National Shale Gas Market Forecasts Summary 2013, 2018, 2023 ($m, CAGR %) Table 3.1 Global Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($bn, AGR %, CAGR %, Cumulative) Table 3.2 Global Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 3.3 Important Global Shale Gas Market Factors (Geology, Industry, Regulation, Demand, Finance, Water, Pipelines) Table 4.1 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %) Table 4.2 Leading National Shale Gas Market CAGRs 2013-2018, 2018-2023, 2013-2023 (CAGR %) Table 4.3 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Cumulative Capital Expenditure 2013-2023 (Rank, $bn) Table 4.4 US Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.5 US Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.6 Canadian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.7 Canadian Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.8 Chinese Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.9 Chinese Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.10 Major International & Domestic Shale Gas Companies Operating in China Table 4.11 Argentinean Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.12 Argentinean Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.13 Major International & Domestic Shale Gas Companies Operating in Argentina Table 4.14 Australian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.15 Australian Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.16 Major International & Domestic Shale Gas Companies Operating in Australia Table 4.17 Polish Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.18 Polish Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.19 Major International & Domestic Shale Gas Companies Operating in Poland Table 4.20 Mexican Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.21 Mexican Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.22 Indian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.23 Indian Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Table 4.24 Major International & Domestic Shale Gas Companies Operating in India Table 4.25 Rest of the World Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) Table 4.26 Rest of the World Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints

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Table 4.27 Major International & Domestic Shale Gas Companies Operating in the Rest of the World Table 5.1 PEST Analysis of the Shale Gas Market 2013-2023 Table 6.1 Leading 10 Companies in the Shale Gas Market 2013 (Shale Gas Capex, Market Share %) Table 6.2 Chesapeake Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Ticker, Website) Table 6.3 BHP Billiton Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Ticker, Website Table 6.4 BHP Billiton Shale Gas Acreage (acres) Table 6.5 ExxonMobil Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Ticker, Website) Table 6.6 ExxonMobil North American Shale Gas Acreage (acres) Table 6.7 Southwestern Energy Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Ticker, Website) Table 6.8 Royal Dutch Shell Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Ticker, Website) Table 6.9 Shell Shale Gas Acreage (acres) Table 6.10 Antero Resources Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Website) Table 6.11 Range Resources Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Website) Table 6.12 Devon Energy Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Website) Table 6.13 Devon Energys Shale Gas Acreage (acres) Table 6.14 CONSOL Energy Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Website) Table 6.15 EQT Corporation Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Website) Table 6.16 Other Leading Companies in the Shale Gas Market 2013 (Company, Country) Table 7.1 Leading National Shale Gas Market Forecasts Summary 2013, 2018, 2023 ($m), 20132023 CAGR (%)

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List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Regional Shale Gas Resource Estimates (tcf) Figure 2.2 Global Distribution of Shale Gas Capital Spending 2013 (%) Figure 2.3 Breakeven Prices for Top North American Shale Plays & Henry Hub Price ($/MMbtu) Figure 2.4 US Spot Gas Price History with Short Term Forecast and NYMEX Futures 2012-2014 ($/MMBtu) Figure 2.5 US and European Natural Gas Price with Japanese LNG Price 2008-2012 ($/MMBtu) Figure 2.6 US Onshore Oil and Gas Rig Count and Crude to Natural Gas Price Ratio 2000-2011 (Units & %) Figure 2.7 US Onshore Oil and Gas Rig Count 2011-2013 (Units) Figure 3.1 Global Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($bn, AGR %) Figure 3.2 US-Canada, and Rest of the World CAGRs 2013-2023, 2013-2018, and 2018-2023 (%) Figure 3.3 US-Canadian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %) Figure 3.4 Rest of the World Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %) Figure 3.5 US-Canada, and Rest of the World Market Share 2013, 2018, 2023 (% Share) Figure 3.6 US-Canada, and Rest of the World Market Cumulative Spending 2013-2023 (%) Figure 4.1 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Forecast 2013-2023 ($m) Figure 4.2 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Share Forecast 2013 (%) Figure 4.3 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Share Forecast 2018 (%) Figure 4.4 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Share Forecast 2023 (%) Figure 4.5 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Share Change 2013-2023 (%) Figure 4.6 Barriers to Entry vs. National Market Size 2013 vs. CAGR 2013-2023 ($m, CAGR%) Figure 4.7 US Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.8 US Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 4.9 Henry Hub Natural Gas Price 2008-2013 ($/MMBtu) Figure 4.10 Monthly US Shale Play Dry Gas Output 2007-2013 (Bcf/d) Figure 4.11 Major US Shale Formation Production 2010-2013 (Bcf/d) Figure 4.12 US Shale Gas Production by Shale Formation 2010-2013 (% Share) Figure 4.13 Canadian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.14 Canadian Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 4.15 Chinese Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.16 Chinese Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 4.17 Argentinean Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.18 Argentinean Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 4.19 Australian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.20 Australian Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 4.21 Polish Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%)

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Figure 4.22 Polish Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 4.23 Mexican Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.24 Mexican Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 4.25 Indian Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.26 Indian Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 4.27 Rest of the World Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%) Figure 4.28 Rest of the World Shale Gas Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Share) Figure 6.1 Leading 10 Companies in the Shale Gas Market Share 2013 (% share) Figure 7.1 Global Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %) Figure 7.2 National Shale Gas Markets CAGR 2013-2018, 2018-2023, 2013-2023 (%) Figure 7.3 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Share Forecast 2013 (%) Figure 7.4 Leading National Shale Gas Markets Share Forecast 2023 (%) Figure 7.5 National Shale Gas Markets Cumulative Capital Expenditure 2013-2023 (%)

Companies Mentioned in This Report

3Legs Resources Americas Petrogas Anadarko Petroleum Antero Resources Apache Energy Atlas Energy Baker Hughes Beach Energy BG Group BHP Billiton BNK Petroleum Reliance Industries Bridas Corporation Buru Energy Cabot Oil & Gas Cairn India Carrizo Oil & Gas Chesapeake Energy Chevron Corporation China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) ConocoPhillips CONSOL Energy

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Cuadrilla Devon Energy Drillsearch Encana Corporation ENI S.p.A. EOG Resources EQT Corporation ExxonMobil FX Energy GAIL India Limited Gas Plus International B.V. Huaying Shanxi Energy Investment Co Ltd Igas Korea Gas Corporation (Kogas) LNG Canada Marathon Oil Mitsubishi New Standard Energy Noble Energy Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) Orlen Upstream Pemex (Petroleos Mexicanos) Pertamina PetroChina Petrohawk PKN Orlen Upstream Plains Exploration & Production Company Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA (PGNIG) Range Resources Reliance Industries Repsol Royal Dutch Shell San Leon Energy Santos Sasol Saudi Aramco Schlumberger

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Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group Sinopec SM Energy Southwestern Energy Statoil Talisman Energy Total S.A. Ultra Petroleum Warburg Pincus LLC WPX Energy XTO Energy Yacimientos Petrolferos Fiscales (YPF) Yanchang Petroleum

Government Agencies and Other Organisations Mentioned in This Report

Chinas Ministry of Land and Resources Chinese National Energy Administration Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Energy Information Administration (EIA) Institute of Directors Polish Environment Ministry United States Geological Survey (USGS)

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The Shale Gas Market 2013-2023

2.4 Current Trends in the Shale Gas Market 2.4.1 Natural Gas Prices
North America As mentioned in section 2.3, natural gas prices in North America, where all commercial shale gas production currently resides, are slowly recovering from a ten year low. The low gas price of the last two years has been inhibiting development of a number of shale gas plays as it has dipped under the break even point of the dry gas plays (Figure 2.3). The substantial drop in the natural gas price throughout the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012 has made a number of dry gas developments uneconomical, and a number of companies have suspended or slowed drilling operations. In the majority of cases, the shale gas industry will need gas prices of over $4.50MMbtu in order to break even on dry gas plays. The EIAs latest short term gas price forecast does not envisage this to happen in the next 18 months if the traditional rise in prices during the winter season is discounted, see Figure 2.4.

There is however some positive news with many market indicators pointing towards a rise in the price of natural gas. Firstly, the main cause of the low gas price is related to the glut of the resource in the US and its lack of ability to export excess gas. Typical production decline from new wells can be as much as 60% from the first year, so if there is a significant curbing of drilling it shouldnt take too long for supply and demand to balance. That being said natural gas storage levels remain close to capacity and releasing some of this gas will slow the process somewhat.

Figure 2.4 US Spot Gas Price History with Short Term Forecast and NYMEX Futures 2012-2014 ($/MMBtu)
5 4 $/MMBtu 3 2 1 0

Historical spot price

STEO forecast price

NYMEX futures price

Source: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook April 2013

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The Shale Gas Market 2013-2023

4.7.1 Australian Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints
Table 4.15 summarises the main market drivers and restraints that will influence the Australian shale gas market over the next decade.

Table 4.15 Australian Shale Gas Market Drivers & Restraints Drivers Restraints
Low Cost Acreage: In comparison to the US where deals for over $25,000 per acre have been made, Australian shale exploration acreage is very low cost where prices of around $100 per acre have been seen. The industry is still young and unproven however the potential is vast and larger oil and gas companies, such as BG Group, ConocoPhillips, Chevron and Statoil have moved in. Asian Gas Demand: There is a growing demand for natural gas in a number of Asian economies. Both China and India are increasing their LNG import capabilities while Korea and Japan are also very large importers of LNG. In these markets Australia can compete with other leading LNG exporters such as Qatar, Indonesia and Malaysia. Growing Domestic Market: Australias natural gas demand increased around 43% from 20002010 and is continuing to show signs of growth. Australia still heavily relies on coal for the vast majority of its electricity production and has the possibility to turn to natural gas in order to reduce carbon intensity. Lack of Shale Gas Services: Although Australia is a leader in developing unconventional gas such as coalbed methane (CBM) the country lacks the vital services required for developing shale gas. There are a growing number of horizontal drilling and fracture stimulation companies in Australia, especially in the areas where CBM has been developed. However, currently these companies will not have enough equipment and manpower to rapidly develop shale gas acreage into producing fields. Commercial production of Australian shale gas is therefore some way off. LNG Export Projects: Currently Australia is undertaking a number of major LNG projects both onshore and offshore that are likely to add over 50mtpa of LNG export capacity by 2017. The gas feedstock for all the projects has already been selected and integrated into calculations of the economical viability of each project. Therefore the development of more capital intensive shale gas resources is somewhat superfluous. It is clear that demand for LNG is rising fast,

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The Shale Gas Market 2013-2023

4.8 Polish Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023
Table 4.17, Figures 4.21 and 4.22 show visiongains forecast for the Polish shale gas market over the next ten years.

Table 4.17 Polish Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative)
2012 2013 Capex $m AGR (%) CAGR (%) 2013-18 CAGR (%) 2013-23 460 495 7.6 2014 673 36.0 2015 33.0 25.8 2016 17.8 2017 20.6 2018 22.8 2018-23 18.7 2019 19.7 2020 12.3 2021 12.0 11.9 2022 8.5 2023 2013-23 7.4 895 1,055 1,272 1,562 1,870 2,100 2,352 2,552 2,740 17,565

Source: Visiongain 2013

Figure 4.21 Polish Shale Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%)
3,000 40% 35% 30% 2,000 Capex $m 25% 20% 15% 10% 500 5% 0% AGR

2,500

1,500

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Year

Source: Visiongain 2013

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The Shale Gas Market 2013-2023

6.1 Chesapeake Energy Company Profile
Table 6.2 Chesapeake Overview (Shale Gas Capex $m, Global Market Share %, Net Income $m, Debt $bn, HQ, Ticker, Website) Total Capital Expenditure Capital Expenditure in this market Global market share % Revenue (2012) Net Income (2012) Long Term Debt $bn (2012) Enterprise Value (06.06.13) Headquarters Ticker Website
Source: Visiongain 2013 Chesapeake is the number two gas producing company in the US, only surpassed by the largest oil and gas company in the world, ExxonMobil. In 2012 the company produced 1.1tcf, had 196tcf of proved reserves and was one of the largest shale gas developers in the world with over 3.6 million net shale acres in its North American gas portfolio and a total of 14 million net acres of exploration and production leasehold in the United States. Chesapeake is partnered with Statoil (32.5%) in its Marcellus holdings, Plains Exploration & Production Company (20%) in Haynesville, Total (25%) in Barnett and CNOOC (33.3%) in Pearsall and Eagle Ford. In 2012, Total purchased a 25% stake in 619,000 acres of Chesapeakes Utica Shale.

2013 $6.4bn $3,720m 11.2% $12.3bn -$769m $12.1bn $30.8bn Oklahoma City, OK, USA CHK
http://www.chk.com

Due to its problematic financial situation which saw the company facing a $10bn funding gap Chesapeake has been selling of parts of its North American assets over the past year. In 2012 the company sold assets worth $6.9bn, including the sale of most of its assets in the Permian Basin to Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp as well as nearly all of its infrastructure network in the region. The company still faces a funding gap of around $3.5bn for 2013 and has continued to sell off E&P acreage and midstream assets to raise a total $7bn this year. In the first quarter of 2013 alone Chesapeake sold assets worth $2.3bn. Among the deals in 2013 were several involving high quality shale gas acreage. In April 2013, Southwestern Energy agreed to acquire approximately 162,000 net acres of leasehold in Northeast Pennsylvania prospective for the Marcellus Shale from Chesapeake and Statoil for approximately $93 million. The acreage is located in Susquehanna, Wyoming, Tioga and Sullivan counties. The land is mostly undeveloped with current net production

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