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All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

National Picture:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 29.6 99 CPC 36.3 124 CPC 37.6 143

LPC 36.7 135 LPC 30.2 103 LPC 26.2 77

NDP 15.7 19 NDP 17.5 29 NDP 18.2 37

BQ 12.4 54 BQ 10.5 51 BQ 10 49

GPC 4.3 0 GPC 4.5 0 GPC 6.8 0

OTH 1.3 1 OTH 1 1 OTH 1.2 2

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 32.4 117

LPC 33.5 116

NDP 15.4 29

BQ 9.2 46

GPC 8.9 0

OTH 0.6 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

British Columbia:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 36.3 22 CPC 37.3 17 CPC 44.5 22

LPC 28.6 8 LPC 27.6 9 LPC 19.3 5

NDP 26.6 5 NDP 28.6 10 NDP 26.1 9

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 6.3 0 GPC 5.3 0 GPC 9.4 0

OTH 2.2 1 OTH 1.2 0 OTH 1.3 0

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 36.3 18

LPC 28.2 8

NDP 23.8 10

BQ 0 0

GPC 11 0

OTH 0.7 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Alberta:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 61.7 26 CPC 65 28 CPC 64.6 27

LPC 22 2 LPC 15.3 0 LPC 11.4 0

NDP 9.5 0 NDP 11.6 0 NDP 12.7 1

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 6.1 0 GPC 6.5 0 GPC 8.8 0

OTH 0.7 0 OTH 1.6 0 OTH 2.5 0

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 60.3 28

LPC 18.2 0

NDP 11.1 0

BQ 0 0

GPC 9.1 0

OTH 1.3 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Saskatchewan:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 41.8 13 CPC 48.9 12 CPC 53.7 13

LPC 27.2 1 LPC 22.4 2 LPC 14.9 1

NDP 23.4 0 NDP 24 0 NDP 25.6 0

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 2.7 0 GPC 3.2 0 GPC 5.6 0

OTH 0.7 0 OTH 0.7 0 OTH 0.2 0

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 49.75 13

LPC 20.68 1

NDP 21.88 0

BQ 0 0

GPC 6.42 0

OTH 1.27 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Manitoba:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 39.1 7 CPC 42.8 8 CPC 48.8 9

LPC 33.2 3 LPC 26 3 LPC 19.1 1

NDP 23.5 4 NDP 25.4 3 NDP 24 4

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 2.7 0 GPC 3.9 0 GPC 6.8 0

OTH 1.5 0 OTH 1.9 0 OTH 1.3 0

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 44.93 7

LPC 25.09 4

NDP 21.92 3

BQ 0 0

GPC 7.53 0

OTH 0.53 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Ontario:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 31.4 24 CPC 35.1 40 CPC 39.2 51

LPC 44.7 75 LPC 39.9 54 LPC 33.8 38

NDP 18.1 7 NDP 19.4 12 NDP 18.2 17

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 4.4 0 GPC 4.7 0 GPC 8 0

OTH 0.8 0 OTH 0.9 0 OTH 0.8 0

Projection

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 34.8 37

LPC 40 58

NDP 15 11

BQ 0 0

GPC 9.7 0

OTH 0.5 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Québec:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 8.8 0 CPC 24.6 10 CPC 21.7 10

LPC 33.9 21 LPC 20.7 13 LPC 23.7 14

NDP 4.6 0 NDP 7.5 0 NDP 12.2 1

BQ 48.9 54 BQ 42.1 51 BQ 38.1 49

GPC 3.2 0 GPC 4 0 GPC 3.5 0

OTH 0.6 0 OTH 1.1 1 OTH 0.8 1

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 14.5 7

LPC 32.1 22

NDP 10.6 0

BQ 36.7 46

GPC 5.9 0

OTH 0.2 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

New Brunswick:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 31.1 2 CPC 35.7 3 CPC 39.4 6

LPC 44.6 7 LPC 39.2 6 LPC 32.4 3

NDP 20.6 1 NDP 21.9 1 NDP 21.9 1

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 3.4 0 GPC 2.4 0 GPC 6.2 0

OTH 0.3 0 OTH 0.8 0 OTH 0.1 0

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 32.74 3

LPC 37.89 6

NDP 22.08 1

BQ 0 0

GPC 6.91 0

OTH 0.38 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Nova Scotia:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 28 3 CPC 29.69 3 CPC 26.1 3

LPC 39.7 6 LPC 37.15 6 LPC 29.8 5

NDP 28.4 1 NDP 29.84 1 NDP 28.9 2

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 3.3 0 GPC 2.6 0 GPC 8 0

OTH 0.6 0 OTH 0.72 0 OTH 7.2 1

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 25.87 3*

LPC 34.79 6

NDP 29.89 2

BQ 0 0

GPC 8.1 0

OTH 1.35 0

* Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodobolt Valley is projected OTH but is revised to CPC


due to the retirement of Bill Casey (OTH) (Please see riding page for further details
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Prince Edward Island:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 30.7 0 CPC 33.4 0 CPC 36.2 1

LPC 52.5 4 LPC 52.5 4 LPC 47.7 3

NDP 12.5 0 NDP 9.6 0 NDP 9.8 0

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 4.2 0 GPC 3.9 0 GPC 4.7 0

OTH 0.1 0 OTH 0.6 0 OTH 1.6 0

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 30.84 0

LPC 49.07 4

NDP 10.9 0

BQ 0 0

GPC 7.5 0

OTH 1.69 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Newfoundland and Labrador:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 32.3 2 CPC 42.67 3 CPC 16.5 0

LPC 48 5 LPC 42.82 4 LPC 46.6 6

NDP 17.5 0 NDP 13.58 0 NDP 33.9 1

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 1.6 0 GPC 0.9 0 GPC 1.7 0

OTH 0.6 0 OTH 0.03 0 OTH 1.3 0

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 28.81 0

LPC 44.65 6

NDP 21.69 1

BQ 0 0

GPC 2.4 0

OTH 2.45 0
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

The North:

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats Party Popular Seats


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 18 0 CPC 23.4 0 CPC 35 1

LPC 44.4 3 LPC 41 2 LPC 30 1

NDP 28.7 0 NDP 29.8 1 NDP 25.2 1

BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0 BQ 0 0

GPC 4.2 0 GPC 3.7 0 GPC 9.1 0

OTH 4.7 0 OTH 2.2 0 OTH 0.7 0

Projection:

Party Popular Seats


Vote

CPC 24.57 1*

LPC 38.13 1

NDP 23.96 1

BQ 0 0

GPC 10.28 0

OTH 3.05 0

* Nunavut is projected LPC but is revised to CPC due to insufficient Northern data
creating projection errors (Please see riding page for further details)
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 10001: Avalon

Current MP: Scott Andrews (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 29.3 CPC 51.6 CPC 35.2

LPC 58.3 LPC 38.6 LPC 45.3

NDP 11 NDP 9.1 NDP 17.4

GPC 1.4 GPC 0.8 GPC 2.2

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 38.45

LPC 46.57

NDP 10.38

GPC 3.54

OTH 0.81

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projections for CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador are skewed due to ongoing
feud between Harper and Premier Danny Williams. Depending on the attitude of
Premier Williams, CPC results could be higher or lower than projected.
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 10002: Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls -- Windsor

Current MP: Scott Simms (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 41.6 CPC 40.3 CPC 15.2

LPC 48.2 LPC 52 LPC 70.3

NDP 8.1 NDP 7 NDP 12.5

GPC 1.1 GPC 0.7 GPC 2

OTH 1 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 25.48

LPC 63.41

NDP 6.48

GPC 3.36

OTH 1.02

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projections for CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador are skewed due to ongoing
feud between Harper and Premier Danny Williams. Depending on the attitude of
Premier Williams, CPC results could be higher or lower than projected.

In 2004, the riding was known as Bonavista--Exploits.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 10003: Humber -- St. Barbe -- Baie Verte

Current MP: Gerry Byrne (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 23 CPC 31.2 CPC 10.6

LPC 62.6 LPC 52.9 LPC 68.2

NDP 13.1 NDP 14.9 NDP 17.5

GPC 1.4 GPC 1 GPC 0

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 3.7

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 17.64

LPC 64.52

NDP 12.22

GPC 2.28

OTH 3.09

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projections for CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador are skewed due to ongoing
feud between Harper and Premier Danny Williams. Depending on the attitude of
Premier Williams, CPC results could be higher or lower than projected.
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 10004: Labrador

Current MP: Todd Russell (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 15.8 CPC 39.7 CPC 8


LPC 62.2 LPC 50.5 LPC 70.3
NDP 9.6 NDP 9.1 NDP 17.9
GPC 2 GPC 0.7 GPC 3.9
OTH 10.4 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 17.13

LPC 65.14

NDP 10.42

GPC 4.64

OTH 2.42

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projections for CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador are skewed due to ongoing
feud between Harper and Premier Danny Williams. Depending on the attitude of
Premier Williams, CPC results could be higher or lower than projected.

Results from the May 24, 2005 by-election are not considered in the projection.
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 10005: Random -- Burin -- St. George’s

Current MP: Judy Foote (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 33.2 CPC 40.8 CPC 20.5

LPC 46.8 LPC 45.5 LPC 53.7

NDP 18.2 NDP 12.3 NDP 23.8

GPC 1.8 GPC 1.4 GPC 2

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 25.27

LPC 51.6

NDP 18.37

GPC 3.64

OTH 0.86

Result: LPC HOLD

Notes: Projections for CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador are skewed due to ongoing
feud between Harper and Premier Danny Williams. Depending on the attitude of
Premier Williams, CPC results could be higher or lower than projected.
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 10006: St. John’s East

Current MP: Jack Harris (NDP)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 41.4 CPC 46.6 CPC 9.3


LPC 36.7 LPC 35 LPC 12.6
NDP 19.8 NDP 17.5 NDP 74.6
GPC 2.2 GPC 1 GPC 1.4
OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 2.2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 23.47

LPC 22.79

NDP 48.13

GPC 3.23

OTH 2.13

Result: NDP Hold

Notes: Projections for CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador are skewed due to ongoing
feud between Harper and Premier Danny Williams. Depending on the attitude of
Premier Williams, CPC results could be higher or lower than projected.

In 2004, the riding was called St. John’s North.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 10007: St. John’s South -- Mount Pearl

Current MP: Siobhan Coady (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 39.6 CPC 44.7 CPC 12.6

LPC 35.3 LPC 33 LPC 43.3

NDP 23.7 NDP 21.7 NDP 40.6

GPC 1.5 GPC 0.6 GPC 1.9

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 1.7

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 24.71

LPC 40.51

NDP 29.36

GPC 3.34

OTH 1.83

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projections for CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador are skewed due to ongoing
feud between Harper and Premier Danny Williams. Depending on the attitude of
Premier Williams, CPC results could be higher or lower than projected.

In 2004, the riding was called St. John’s South.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 11001: Cardigan

Current MP: Lawrence Macauly (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 33.2 CPC 33.7 CPC 29.6

LPC 53.4 LPC 56.2 LPC 52.8

NDP 10.2 NDP 7.5 NDP 8.1

GPC 3.2 GPC 2.6 GPC 3.7

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 5.8

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 26.89

LPC 55.11

NDP 7.53

GPC 6.47

OTH 6.07

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 11002: Charlottetown

Current MP: Shawn Murphy (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 27.6 CPC 34.1 CPC 32.1

LPC 49.4 LPC 50.2 LPC 50.1

NDP 18.4 NDP 11.1 NDP 12.3

GPC 4.1 GPC 3.1 GPC 4.8

OTH 0.6 OTH 1.5 OTH 0.7

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 27.64

LPC 51.38

NDP 12.2

GPC 7.38

OTH 0.97

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 11003: Egmont

Current MP: Gail Shea (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 29.1 CPC 31 CPC 43.9

LPC 55.4 LPC 53.2 LPC 43.6

NDP 11.6 NDP 9.6 NDP 9.1

GPC 3.9 GPC 5.2 GPC 3.4

OTH 0 OTH 1.1 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 34.15

LPC 49.14

NDP 8.8

GPC 7.04

OTH 0.27

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 11004: Mapleque

Current MP: Wayne Easter (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 32.5 CPC 34.6 CPC 39.3

LPC 51.9 LPC 50.5 LPC 44.2

NDP 10.1 NDP 10.2 NDP 9.7

GPC 5.5 GPC 4.7 GPC 6.9

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 32.82

LPC 48.3

NDP 9.17

GPC 9.24

OTH 0.27

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: None
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12001: Cape Breton -- Canso

Current MP: Roger Cuzner (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 20.2 CPC 24.2 CPC 23.5

LPC 53.3 LPC 53.2 LPC 48.1

NDP 24.3 NDP 20.1 NDP 21.1

GPC 2.2 GPC 2.5 GPC 7.3

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 20.34

LPC 52.86

NDP 20.66

GPC 7.89

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12002: Central Nova

Current MP: Peter MacKay (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 43.3 CPC 40.7 CPC 46.6

LPC 26.4 LPC 32.9 LPC 0

NDP 27.7 NDP 24.6 NDP 19.6

GPC 2.7 GPC 1.6 GPC 32.2

OTH 0 OTH 0.3 OTH 1.6

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 41.78

LPC 12.81

NDP 23.45

GPC 22.68

OTH 0

Notes: The 2008 result which featured Green leader Elizabeth May and no Liberal
candidate skews the projection. I would expect a much better result from the LPC and a
worse result for the GPC.

Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12003: Cumberland -- Colchester -- Musquodobolt Valley

Current MP: None (Bill Casey (IND) retired)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 50.5 CPC 52 CPC 8.8

LPC 26.5 LPC 23.9 LPC 8.5

NDP 18.9 NDP 20.7 NDP 12.3

GPC 3.1 GPC 2.7 GPC 0

OTH 1 OTH 2.1 OTH 70.4

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 18.62

LPC 20.09

NDP 16.76

GPC 3.56

OTH 40.71

Result: CPC Gain

Notes: This riding was won by former Conservative turned independent Bill Casey in
2008. That result makes it difficult to gage the riding properly. Thus, while the Liberals
project higher than the Conservatives mathematically, the mostly likely result is the one
above: a Conservative gain.

This riding was known as North Nova in the 2004 election.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12004: Dartmouth -- Cole Harbour

Current MP: Michael Savage (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 21.1 CPC 22.8 CPC 22.5

LPC 42.1 LPC 42.3 LPC 39.5

NDP 32.5 NDP 32.5 NDP 31.6

GPC 3.2 GPC 2.2 GPC 6

OTH 1.2 OTH 0.1 OTH 0.5

Projection

Party % of
Vote

CPC 18.56

LPC 42.86

NDP 32.56

GPC 7.43

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12005: Halifax

Current MP: Megan Leslie (NDP)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 14.6 CPC 18 CPC 20.6

LPC 39.1 LPC 30.9 LPC 42.7

NDP 41.6 NDP 46.9 NDP 27.6

GPC 4.7 GPC 3.9 GPC 8.7

OTH 0 OTH 0.3 OTH 0.4

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 17.6

LPC 34.12

NDP 40.85

GPC 9.3

OTH 0

Result: NDP Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12006: Halifax West

Current MP: Geoff Regan (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 21 CPC 23 CPC 21.1

LPC 47.5 LPC 49.4 LPC 41.6

NDP 27.9 NDP 24.4 NDP 29.6

GPC 3.6 GPC 3.2 GPC 7.1

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0.6

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 20.1

LPC 47

NDP 25.84

GPC 8.16

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12007: Kings -- Hants

Current MP: Scott Brison (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 30.1 CPC 32.2 CPC 26.2

LPC 46.6 LPC 45.6 LPC 44.2

NDP 17.7 NDP 19 NDP 22

GPC 3.6 GPC 2.2 GPC 6.3

OTH 1.9 OTH 1 OTH 1.4

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 26.04

LPC 44.59

NDP 20.11

GPC 7.3

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12008: Sackville -- Eastern Shore

Current MP: Peter Stoffer (NDP)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 21.4 CPC 21.9 CPC 20.7

LPC 28.7 LPC 23 LPC 12.7

NDP 45.8 NDP 53 NDP 61.4

GPC 2.6 GPC 2.2 GPC 5.2

OTH 1.7 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 18.26

LPC 20.38

NDP 56.26

GPC 6.55

OTH 0

Result: NDP Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12009: South Shore -- St. Margaret’s

Current MP: Gerald Keddy (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 37.9 CPC 36.9 CPC 36

LPC 32.1 LPC 28.4 LPC 23.9

NDP 25.7 NDP 28.5 NDP 33

GPC 4.3 GPC 2.9 GPC 5.2

OTH 0 OTH 3.4 OTH 1.3

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 33.66

LPC 28.95

NDP 30.52

GPC 4.3

OTH 0

Result: CPC Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12010: Sydney -- Victoria

Current MP: Mark Eyking (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 15.9 CPC 18.5 CPC 20.6

LPC 52.1 LPC 49.9 LPC 49.4

NDP 27.7 NDP 28.5 NDP 24.4

GPC 2.3 GPC 3.3 GPC 5.5

OTH 2 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 16.49

LPC 52.64

NDP 25.24

GPC 7.03

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 12011: West Nova

Current MP: Greg Kerr (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 33 CPC 38.1 CPC 39.9

LPC 42.6 LPC 39.2 LPC 36.2

NDP 21.1 NDP 18.8 NDP 16.9

GPC 3.2 GPC 2.3 GPC 5

OTH 0 OTH 1.5 OTH 2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 35.58

LPC 40.58

NDP 17.34

GPC 6.62

OTH 0

Result: LPC Gain

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13001: Acadie -- Bathurst

Current MP: Yvon Godin (NDP)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 10.9 CPC 16.9 CPC 18.5

LPC 32.7 LPC 30.7 LPC 21.9

NDP 53.9 NDP 49.9 NDP 57.5

GPC 2.5 GPC 1.4 GPC 2

OTH 0 OTH 1.1 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 12.26

LPC 28.61

NDP 54.12

GPC 4.43

OTH 0.33

Result: NDP Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13002: Beauséjour

Current MP: Dominic LeBlanc (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 28.2 CPC 16.7 CPC 29.2

LPC 53.3 LPC 47.6 LPC 46.8

NDP 14.7 NDP 32.2 NDP 16.9

GPC 3.8 GPC 2.8 GPC 7.2

OTH 0 OTH 0.8 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 25.11

LPC 50.85

NDP 15.57

GPC 8.11

OTH 0.11

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13003: Fredricton

Current MP: Keith Ashfield (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 33.5 CPC 34.7 CPC 42.5

LPC 46.8 LPC 41.8 LPC 31.5

NDP 17.4 NDP 21.3 NDP 15.4

GPC 2.4 GPC 1.9 GPC 10.2

OTH 0 OTH 0.4 OTH 0.4

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 34.46

LPC 39.26

NDP 16.21

GPC 9.46

OTH 0.32

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13004: Fundy Royal

Current MP: Rob Moore (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 44.8 CPC 48.3 CPC 51.6

LPC 34.8 LPC 27.3 LPC 17.3

NDP 16.2 NDP 21.1 NDP 23.7

GPC 3.1 GPC 3.3 GPC 7.3

OTH 1.1 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 45.06

LPC 25.32

NDP 20.98

GPC 9.23

OTH 0.06

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13005: Madawaska -- Restigouche

Current MP: JC D’Amour (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 24 CPC 35.6 CPC 33.2

LPC 44.7 LPC 38 LPC 47.4

NDP 27.6 NDP 23 NDP 15.6

GPC 3.7 GPC 3.4 GPC 3.8

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 27.72

LPC 47.54

NDP 18.31

GPC 6.2

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes: Projection adds up to more than 100% due to rounding issues.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13006: Miramichi

Current MP: Tilly O’Neill-Gordon (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 29 CPC 34.1 CPC 42.1

LPC 48.1 LPC 42.3 LPC 37

NDP 18.4 NDP 16.9 NDP 17.1

GPC 4.5 GPC 1.8 GPC 3.9

OTH 0 OTH 5 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 33.43

LPC 42.87

NDP 16.3

GPC 5.98

OTH 1.16

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13007: Moncton -- Riverview -- Dieppe

Current MP: Brian Murphy (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 23.5 CPC 30.1 CPC 35.8

LPC 59.3 LPC 42.7 LPC 39.1

NDP 12.5 NDP 18.9 NDP 16.3

GPC 4.7 GPC 2.9 GPC 8.8

OTH 0 OTH 0.3 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 27.83

LPC 47.17

NDP 15.45

GPC 9.23

OTH 0.06

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13008: New Brunswick Southwest

Current MP: Greg Thompson (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 53.1 CPC 54.8 CPC 58.3

LPC 31.5 LPC 26.8 LPC 19.6

NDP 11.7 NDP 15.6 NDP 16.6

GPC 3.1 GPC 2.8 GPC 5.6

OTH 0.6 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 49.02

LPC 27.84

NDP 15.72

GPC 6.91

OTH 0.25

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13009: Saint John

Current MP: Rodney Weston (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 33.6 CPC 39.3 CPC 39.6

LPC 43.3 LPC 42.9 LPC 38.1

NDP 19.1 NDP 15.6 NDP 16

GPC 2.2 GPC 2.1 GPC 5.4

OTH 2 OTH 0 OTH 1

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 36.85

LPC 41.21

NDP 14.32

GPC 6.76

OTH 0.61

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 13010: Tobique -- Mactaquac

Current MP: Mike Allen (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 39.6 CPC 43.8 CPC 57.4

LPC 48.2 LPC 42.9 LPC 21.5

NDP 8.5 NDP 11.5 NDP 15.3

GPC 3.7 GPC 1.9 GPC 5.8

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 46.62

LPC 33.74

NDP 12.38

GPC 6.96

OTH 0.04

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24001: Abitibi -- Témiscamingue

Current MP: Marc Lemay (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.6 CPC 13.8 CPC 18.9

LPC 31 LPC 22.6 LPC 20.7

NDP 3.4 NDP 8.5 NDP 9.5

GPC 2.4 GPC 2.7 GPC 2.2

BQ 57.7 BQ 52.3 BQ 47.9

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0.7

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 12.71

LPC 28.88

NDP 8.3

GPC 5.02

BQ 43.99

OTH 0.01

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24002: Ahuntsic

Current MP: Maria Mourani (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.2 CPC 12.3 CPC 10.4

LPC 43.8 LPC 37.2 LPC 38.6

NDP 6.2 NDP 7.9 NDP 9

GPC 2.7 GPC 3.7 GPC 2.6

BQ 41.3 BQ 38.9 BQ 39.5

OTH 0.9 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 5

LPC 44.85

NDP 7.43

GPC 5.41

BQ 36.79

OTH 0

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24003: Alfred -- Pellan

Current MP: Robert Carrier (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.1 CPC 18.9 CPC 16.3

LPC 39.6 LPC 27.6 LPC 29.3

NDP 3.5 NDP 7.1 NDP 12

GPC 2.1 GPC 3.4 GPC 3.1

BQ 49.2 BQ 43 BQ 38.8

OTH 0.6 OTH 0 OTH 0.5

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 10.5

LPC 34.95

NDP 8.97

GPC 6.09

BQ 38.61

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24004: Argenteuil -- Papineau -- Mirabel

Current MP: Mario Laframboise (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 7 CPC 13.4 CPC 17.4

LPC 26.9 LPC 23.3 LPC 18.2

NDP 3 NDP 6.5 NDP 12.4

GPC 5.1 GPC 4.6 GPC 3.7

BQ 57.4 BQ 52.1 BQ 48.1

OTH 0.5 OTH 0 OTH 0.2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 13.77

LPC 26.92

NDP 9.05

GPC 6.33

BQ 43.31

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24005: Beauce

Current MP: Maxime Bernier (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 17.1 CPC 67 CPC 62.4

LPC 41.4 LPC 7.9 LPC 10.3

NDP 3.1 NDP 2.6 NDP 8.5

GPC 2.2 GPC 2.5 GPC 4.8

BQ 36.3 BQ 20 BQ 14

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 51.53

LPC 18.45

NDP 5.88

GPC 6.64

BQ 16.82

OTH 0

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24006: Beauharnois-Salaberry

Current MP: Claude Debellefeuille (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 9.2 CPC 26.5 CPC 20.2

LPC 34.6 LPC 15 LPC 14.9

NDP 1.9 NDP 7.6 NDP 11.6

GPC 2.7 GPC 3.4 GPC 3.3

BQ 50.7 BQ 47.5 BQ 50.1

OTH 0 OTH 0.9 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 15.38

LPC 22.5

NDP 8.89

GPC 5.84

BQ 46.91

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

24007: Beauport -- Limoilou

Current MP: Sylvie Boucher (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 16 CPC 39.5 CPC 36.8

LPC 25.6 LPC 10 LPC 14.4

NDP 4.1 NDP 8 NDP 12.2

GPC 3.4 GPC 4.1 GPC 2.8

BQ 49.7 BQ 37.9 BQ 32.6

OTH 1.3 OTH 0.5 OTH 1.3

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 27.7

LPC 25.1

NDP 9.44

GPC 5.55

BQ 30.67

OTH 0.44

Result: BQ Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24008: Berthier -- Maskinongé

Current MP: Guy André (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 11.3 CPC 31.4 CPC 22.2

LPC 22.8 LPC 10.4 LPC 18.4

NDP 3.4 NDP 6.2 NDP 10.4

GPC 2.7 GPC 3.6 GPC 3.1

BQ 59.9 BQ 48.5 BQ 45.8

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 17.76

LPC 26.39

NDP 7.71

GPC 6.05

BQ 41.53

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24009: Bourassa

Current MP: Denis Coderre (LIB)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.3 CPC 15.9 CPC 13.6

LPC 50 LPC 43.4 LPC 49.8

NDP 4 NDP 5.2 NDP 8

GPC 1.6 GPC 3.2 GPC 2.9

BQ 37.8 BQ 32 BQ 25.4

OTH 1.4 OTH 0.4 OTH 0.3

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 7.88

LPC 54.06

NDP 6.29

GPC 5.53

BQ 25.37

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24010: Brome -- Missisquoi

Current MP: Christian Ouellet (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 11.1 CPC 20.4 CPC 18.7

LPC 42.1 LPC 28 LPC 32.8

NDP 4.6 NDP 5.9 NDP 9.1

GPC 2.7 GPC 3.6 GPC 3.6

BQ 39.7 BQ 38.3 BQ 35.2

OTH 0 OTH 4 OTH 0.7

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 12.38

LPC 36.53

NDP 7.12

GPC 6.27

BQ 35.81

OTH 0.8

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24011: Brossard -- La Prairie

Current MP: Alexandra Mendes (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.9 CPC 16.9 CPC 18.9

LPC 45.9 LPC 35 LPC 32.6

NDP 4.4 NDP 7.5 NDP 12.7

GPC 2.6 GPC 3.3 GPC 3.1

BQ 41 BQ 37.2 BQ 32.5

OTH 0.2 OTH 0.2 OTH 0.3

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 12.87

LPC 38.61

NDP 9.54

GPC 5.68

BQ 32.51

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24012: Chambly -- Borduas

Current MP: Yves Lessard (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 7.6 CPC 20.6 CPC 15.1

LPC 22.8 LPC 11.3 LPC 16.8

NDP 4.8 NDP 8.7 NDP 14.2

GPC 4 GPC 5.1 GPC 3.9

BQ 60.9 BQ 54.7 BQ 50.1

OTH 0.2 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 11.04

LPC 22.42

NDP 10.53

GPC 6.73

BQ 48.85

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24013: Charlesbourg -- Haute-Saint-Charles

Current MP: Daniel Petit (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 15.8 CPC 41 CPC 41.2

LPC 25.7 LPC 8.8 LPC 14.1

NDP 3.5 NDP 6.2 NDP 13.1

GPC 2.6 GPC 2.5 GPC 2.5

BQ 51.6 BQ 38.3 BQ 29.2

OTH 0.8 OTH 3.2 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 30.71

LPC 21.6

NDP 9.4

GPC 5.3

BQ 31.66

OTH 0.19

Result: BQ Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24014: Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord

Current MP: Michel Guimond (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 12.6 CPC 32.3 CPC 27.4

LPC 20.6 LPC 8.8 LPC 13.4

NDP 3.4 NDP 6.4 NDP 7.7

GPC 2.5 GPC 3.4 GPC 2.7

BQ 60.9 BQ 49.1 BQ 48.9

OTH 0.19 OTH 0.19 OTH 0.19

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 20.06

LPC 23.7

NDP 6.35

GPC 5.54

BQ 44.38

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24015: Châteauguay--Saint-Constant

Current MP: Carole Freeman (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.7 CPC 20.4 CPC 17.9

LPC 30 LPC 18.7 LPC 18.4

NDP 3.3 NDP 5.2 NDP 15

GPC 3.7 GPC 4.3 GPC 3.2

BQ 57.3 BQ 51.4 BQ 45.6

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:
Party % of
Vote

CPC 11.56

LPC 28.67

NDP 10.38

GPC 5.96

BQ 42.98

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24016: Chicoutimi -- Le Fjord

Current MP: Robert Bouchard (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.2 CPC 29.2 CPC 34.9

LPC 43.4 LPC 24.7 LPC 13.5

NDP 3.7 NDP 5.2 NDP 7.8

GPC 2.3 GPC 2.5 GPC 2.5

BQ 45.3 BQ 38.5 BQ 41.3

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 23.63

LPC 27.18

NDP 6.01

GPC 5.26

BQ 37.39

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24017: Compton -- Stanstead

Current MP: France Bonsant (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 10.5 CPC 24.3 CPC 19.4

LPC 36 LPC 22.3 LPC 22.5

NDP 3.5 NDP 6.2 NDP 11.3

GPC 3.3 GPC 4.4 GPC 4.9

BQ 46.7 BQ 42.8 BQ 41.9

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 15.2

LPC 28.94

NDP 8.13

GPC 6.97

BQ 40.26

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24018: Drummond

Current MP: Robert Pomerleau (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 16.9 CPC 22.3 CPC 25.3

LPC 22.8 LPC 16.4 LPC 17

NDP 1.8 NDP 6.3 NDP 16.4

GPC 2.2 GPC 5.3 GPC 2.5

BQ 56.3 BQ 49.7 BQ 38.8

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 16.72

LPC 25.63

NDP 11.27

GPC 5.86

BQ 40.03

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24019: Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Current MP: Raynald Blais (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6.8 CPC 32.2 CPC 22.8

LPC 32.7 LPC 19.3 LPC 27

NDP 2.8 NDP 3 NDP 7

GPC 2.1 GPC 2.9 GPC 3.1

BQ 55.7 BQ 42.7 BQ 40.1

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 17.81

LPC 33.77

NDP 5.33

GPC 5.65

BQ 36.75

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24020: Gatineau

Current MP: Richard Nadeau (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 7.6 CPC 16.8 CPC 16.8

LPC 42.1 LPC 31.3 LPC 25.3

NDP 5.7 NDP 10 NDP 26.1

GPC 3.1 GPC 2.7 GPC 2.6

BQ 40.3 BQ 39.3 BQ 29.2

OTH 1.3 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.82

LPC 33.29

NDP 18.51

GPC 5.3

BQ 32.33

OTH 0

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24041: Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia

Current MP: Jean-Yves Roy (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6.2 CPC 29.8 CPC 18.1

LPC 30.5 LPC 13.1 LPC 35.6

NDP 5 NDP 6.2 NDP 4.7

GPC 1.9 GPC 2.7 GPC 3.6

BQ 56.5 BQ 46 BQ 37.5

OTH 0 OTH 2.3 OTH 0.6

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 14.14

LPC 37.98

NDP 4.52

GPC 5.71

BQ 36.05

OTH 0

Result: LPC Gain

Notes: In 2004, the riding was known as Matapédia -- Matane.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24021: Hochelaga

Current MP: Réal Ménard (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.5 CPC 12.2 CPC 9.2

LPC 25.6 LPC 17.2 LPC 20.7

NDP 4.1 NDP 8.9 NDP 14.5

GPC 3 GPC 4.9 GPC 4.3

BQ 60.1 BQ 55.6 BQ 49.7

OTH 1.8 OTH 1.2 OTH 1.7

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 4.75

LPC 29.45

NDP 12.18

GPC 7.21

BQ 44.57

OTH 0.75

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24022: Honoré -- Mercier

Current MP: Pablo Rodriguez (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6 CPC 17.4 CPC 15.3

LPC 46.1 LPC 38.2 LPC 43.7

NDP 4.1 NDP 6.2 NDP 10.1

GPC 1.8 GPC 2.9 GPC 2.8

BQ 40.4 BQ 34.8 BQ 28.1

OTH 1.6 OTH 0.4 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.31

LPC 48.38

NDP 8.19

GPC 5.64

BQ 27.69

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24023: Hull -- Aylmer

Current MP: Marcel Proulx (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 8.2 CPC 17.3 CPC 15.2

LPC 41.9 LPC 32.7 LPC 37.5

NDP 11.9 NDP 15.5 NDP 19.8

GPC 5.3 GPC 5 GPC 5.3

BQ 32.5 BQ 29.4 BQ 22.1

OTH 0.2 OTH 0.2 OTH 0.2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.34

LPC 40.51

NDP 15.83

GPC 7.4

BQ 26.03

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24024: Jeanne - Le Ber

Current MP: Thierry St - Cyr (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.5 CPC 9.2 CPC 11.2

LPC 41.1 LPC 34.1 LPC 32.3

NDP 6.9 NDP 11.8 NDP 15.7

GPC 4.1 GPC 4.7 GPC 4.8

BQ 40.9 BQ 40.2 BQ 34.9

OTH 1.4 OTH 0 OTH 1.2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 5.34

LPC 38.71

NDP 11.76

GPC 6.89

BQ 35.21

OTH 0.99

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24025: Joliette

Current MP: Pierre Paquette (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6.4 CPC 26.8 CPC 17.8

LPC 22.7 LPC 9.9 LPC 14.5

NDP 3.6 NDP 5.2 NDP 10.4

GPC 2.4 GPC 3.9 GPC 4.8

BQ 63.4 BQ 54.1 BQ 52.5

OTH 1.5 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 12.96

LPC 21.06

NDP 7.84

GPC 6.87

BQ 50.92

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24026: Jonquière -- Alma

Current MP: Jean-Pierre Blackburn (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 4.8 CPC 52.1 CPC 52.5

LPC 29.1 LPC 3 LPC 5.2

NDP 3.4 NDP 3.9 NDP 4.9

GPC 1.5 GPC 1.8 GPC 0

BQ 54.9 BQ 39.3 BQ 37.5

OTH 6.3 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 41.27

LPC 19.89

NDP 4.57

GPC 3.83

BQ 29.83

OTH 0

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24027: Lac - Saint - Louis

Current MP: Francis Scarpaleggia (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 12.1 CPC 26.7 CPC 23.5

LPC 63.9 LPC 48.2 LPC 46.4

NDP 7.5 NDP 10.7 NDP 15.8

GPC 5.1 GPC 6.8 GPC 8.6

BQ 10.2 BQ 7.7 BQ 5.8

OTH 1.2 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 16.58

LPC 50.74

NDP 12.1

GPC 10.02

BQ 10.07

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24028: La Pointe-de-l’Île

Current MP: Francine Lalonde (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 4.2 CPC 15.2 CPC 11.2

LPC 22.9 LPC 14.1 LPC 16

NDP 3.8 NDP 7 NDP 12.9

GPC 2.6 GPC 3.2 GPC 2.9

BQ 66.5 BQ 60.5 BQ 56.1

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 1

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 6.21

LPC 28.05

NDP 9.68

GPC 5.48

BQ 49.36

OTH 0.12

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24029: LaSalle -- Émard

Current MP: Lise Zarac (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5 CPC 12.8 CPC 16

LPC 56.6 LPC 48.4 LPC 40.6

NDP 4.4 NDP 6 NDP 13.3

GPC 2.2 GPC 3.2 GPC 3.7

BQ 30.7 BQ 28.7 BQ 24.5

OTH 1.3 OTH 0.9 OTH 1.9

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 8.11

LPC 45.56

NDP 10.76

GPC 6.55

BQ 26.87

OTH 1.06

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24030: Laurentides -- Labelle

Current MP: Johanne Deschamps (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.9 CPC 20.4 CPC 13

LPC 29.4 LPC 14.5 LPC 26.7

NDP 3.6 NDP 6.5 NDP 9.2

GPC 2.7 GPC 4.9 GPC 4

BQ 58.4 BQ 53.8 BQ 47.1

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 8.78

LPC 31.52

NDP 7.28

GPC 6.56

BQ 45.21

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24031: Laurier -- Sainte - Marie

Current MP: Gilles Duceppe (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 2.6 CPC 6.4 CPC 4.8

LPC 17.7 LPC 12.5 LPC 18.3

NDP 12.1 NDP 16.7 NDP 17.1

GPC 6.1 GPC 8.3 GPC 7.9

BQ 60.1 BQ 54.7 BQ 50.2

OTH 1.5 OTH 1.5 OTH 1.6

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 0.46

LPC 27.71

NDP 14.62

GPC 9.78

BQ 45.34

OTH 0.99

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24032: Laval

Current MP: Nicole Demers (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6.4 CPC 8.2 CPC 18

LPC 36.2 LPC 25.6 LPC 28.1

NDP 4.1 NDP 8.2 NDP 12.5

GPC 2.2 GPC 3.4 GPC 3.2

BQ 50.1 BQ 44.4 BQ 37.8

OTH 1 OTH 0 OTH 0.4

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 13.24

LPC 33.84

NDP 9.65

GPC 6.09

BQ 36.4

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24033: Laval -- Les Îles

Current MP: Raymonde Falco (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 7 CPC 17.1 CPC 20.6

LPC 47.9 LPC 39.3 LPC 40.5

NDP 4.4 NDP 7.2 NDP 11.5

GPC 2.4 GPC 2.9 GPC 3.3

BQ 37.1 BQ 33.1 BQ 23.6

OTH 1.3 OTH 0.4 OTH 0.6

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 12.3

LPC 44.35

NDP 9.01

GPC 5.72

BQ 27.49

OTH 0.04

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24034: Lévis -- Bellechasse

Current MP: Steven Blaney (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 19.1 CPC 46.4 CPC 45.9

LPC 27.6 LPC 8.2 LPC 15.1

NDP 4.8 NDP 4.6 NDP 10.8

GPC 3.9 GPC 4.1 GPC 2.5

BQ 44.3 BQ 29 BQ 25.5

OTH 0.3 OTH 7.7 OTH 0.2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 37.7

LPC 20.77

NDP 7.88

GPC 5.69

BQ 25.43

OTH 1.43

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24035: Longeuil -- Pierre - Boucher

Current MP: Jean Dorion (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 4.9 CPC 18.8 CPC 14.4

LPC 25.6 LPC 12.6 LPC 21.8

NDP 5.2 NDP 8.6 NDP 14

GPC 2.6 GPC 4 GPC 3.5

BQ 60.9 BQ 55.2 BQ 46.1

OTH 0.8 OTH 0.8 OTH 0.2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 10.29

LPC 27.78

NDP 10.92

GPC 6.29

BQ 43.91

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes: In 2004, the riding was known as Longueil.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24036: Lobtinière -- Chutes - de - la - Chaudière

Current MP: Jacques Gourde (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 21.5 CPC 54.3 CPC 47.3

LPC 24.1 LPC 5.4 LPC 12.5

NDP 4.8 NDP 6.8 NDP 13.2

GPC 3.7 GPC 3.8 GPC 2.4

BQ 46 BQ 29.6 BQ 24.6

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 41.57

LPC 18.65

NDP 9.61

GPC 5.42

BQ 23.92

OTH 0.8

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24037: Louis - Hébert

Current MP: Pascal-Pierre Paillé (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 13.5 CPC 34.5 CPC 28.2

LPC 34 LPC 15 LPC 23.6

NDP 3.8 NDP 9.1 NDP 9.3

GPC 5.6 GPC 4.3 GPC 2.4

BQ 43.1 BQ 34.1 BQ 36.2

OTH 0 OTH 3.1 OTH 0.2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 21.21

LPC 28.09

NDP 8.93

GPC 5.33

BQ 35

OTH 0.35

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24038: Louis - Saint - Laurent

Current MP: Josée Verner (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 31.1 CPC 57.7 CPC 47.1

LPC 22.3 LPC 6.4 LPC 13.4

NDP 3.1 NDP 5.7 NDP 10.5

GPC 2.8 GPC 3 GPC 2.5

BQ 38.4 BQ 24.2 BQ 26.5

OTH 2.3 OTH 3 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 38.51

LPC 20.24

NDP 7.8

GPC 5.43

BQ 26.78

OTH 0.15

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 34039: Manicouagan

Current MP: Gérard Asselin (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 4.9 CPC 19 CPC 27

LPC 24.9 LPC 14.3 LPC 15.3

NDP 10.3 NDP 12.8 NDP 4.8

GPC 1.4 GPC 2.3 GPC 3.6

BQ 58.5 BQ 51.1 BQ 49.3

OTH 0 OTH 0.5 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 16.82

LPC 23.77

NDP 6.36

GPC 5.62

BQ 46.8

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24040: Marc - Aurèle - Fortin

Current MP: Serge Ménard (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6 CPC 20.5 CPC 13.8

LPC 27.7 LPC 15.5 LPC 24.5

NDP 3.9 NDP 8 NDP 12.3

GPC 3.6 GPC 5 GPC 3.9

BQ 58.9 BQ 51 BQ 45.5

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 10.05

LPC 30.52

NDP 9.46

GPC 6.73

BQ 42.68

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24042: Mégantic -- L’Érable

Current MP: Christian Paradis (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 11.4 CPC 49.9 CPC 46.7

LPC 36.7 LPC 10.4 LPC 14

NDP 3.7 NDP 3.9 NDP 9.5

GPC 3.5 GPC 3.3 GPC 2.2

BQ 44.7 BQ 32.6 BQ 27.7

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 36.3

LPC 19.9

NDP 6.68

GPC 5.25

BQ 31.4

OTH 0

Result: CPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24043: Montcalm

Current MP: Roger Gaudet (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.9 CPC 19.3 CPC 13.5

LPC 16.4 LPC 8.3 LPC 13.9

NDP 3.2 NDP 6.7 NDP 13.9

GPC 3.3 GPC 3.5 GPC 3.1

BQ 71.2 BQ 62.3 BQ 55.7

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.15

LPC 28.2

NDP 10.29

GPC 5.76

BQ 46.01

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24044: Mount Royal

Current MP: Irwin Cotler (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 8.6 CPC 17.9 CPC 27.3

LPC 75.7 LPC 65.6 LPC 55.7

NDP 4.9 NDP 6.7 NDP 7.7

GPC 2.8 GPC 3.9 GPC 4.4

BQ 7 BQ 5.7 BQ 4.4

OTH 1.1 OTH 0.3 OTH 0.6

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 16.69

LPC 62.33

NDP 7.94

GPC 6.86

BQ 5.04

OTH 0.05

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24045: Notre - Dame - de - Grâce -- Lachine

Current MP: Marlene Jennings (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 10.2 CPC 17.4 CPC 16.2

LPC 53.2 LPC 43.9 LPC 44.6

NDP 7.9 NDP 11.8 NDP 15.2

GPC 5 GPC 6 GPC 7.7

BQ 22 BQ 20.3 BQ 15.9

OTH 1.7 OTH 0.6 OTH 0.4

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.73

LPC 50.33

NDP 12.92

GPC 9.11

BQ 16.6

OTH 0.21

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24046: Abitibi -- Baie - James -- Nunavik -- Eeyou

Current MP: Yvon Lévesque (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 4.6 CPC 20.9 CPC 30.4

LPC 43.2 LPC 22.4 LPC 18.4

NDP 3.9 NDP 6.1 NDP 8.2

GPC 3.1 GPC 4.1 GPC 3.4

BQ 45.2 BQ 46.6 BQ 39.4

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 19.25

LPC 27.73

NDP 6.47

GPC 5.97

BQ 40.09

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes: In 2004, the riding was known as Nunavik -- Eeyou.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24047: Outremont

Current MP: Thomas Mulcair (NDP)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6 CPC 12.7 CPC 10.5

LPC 40.9 LPC 35.2 LPC 33.1

NDP 14.1 NDP 17.2 NDP 39.5

GPC 4.3 GPC 4.8 GPC 4.3

BQ 33.3 BQ 29 BQ 12.6

OTH 1.5 OTH 1.1 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 6.03

LPC 44.63

NDP 28.35

GPC 6.85

BQ 13.13

OTH 0

Result: LPC Gain

Notes: The September 17, 2007 by-election results are not included in the projection.
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24048: Papineau

Current MP: Justin Trudeau (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 4.8 CPC 8.3 CPC 7.6

LPC 41.1 LPC 38.5 LPC 41.5

NDP 8.8 NDP 7.7 NDP 8.7

GPC 2.6 GPC 3.6 GPC 2.8

BQ 40 BQ 40.8 BQ 38.7

OTH 2.8 OTH 1.1 OTH 0.6

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 4.9

LPC 46.72

NDP 7.55

GPC 5.82

BQ 33.77

OTH 0.15

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24049: Pierrefonds -- Dollard

Current MP: Bernard Patry (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 10.8 CPC 23.1 CPC 25.8

LPC 63.6 LPC 51.1 LPC 46.9

NDP 5.5 NDP 7.7 NDP 10.6

GPC 3 GPC 5.5 GPC 6.9

BQ 16 BQ 12.4 BQ 9.5

OTH 1.3 OTH 0 OTH 0.2

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 19.41

LPC 51.5

NDP 8.29

GPC 8.81

BQ 11.21

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24050: Pontiac

Current MP: Lawrence Cannon (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 22.2 CPC 33.7 CPC 32.7

LPC 38.4 LPC 24.2 LPC 24.3

NDP 5.8 NDP 10 NDP 15.4

GPC 4.2 GPC 3.2 GPC 5

BQ 29.2 BQ 28.7 BQ 22.3

OTH 0.3 OTH 0.2 OTH 0.3

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 24.64

LPC 31.07

NDP 12.1

GPC 7.04

BQ 24.13

OTH 0

Result: LPC Gain

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24051: Portneuf -- Jacques - Cartier

Current MP: André Arthur (IND)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 21.5 CPC 22.7 CPC 0

LPC 27.6 LPC 4.9 LPC 16.3

NDP 4.5 NDP 3.9 NDP 12.1

GPC 3.6 GPC 2.8 GPC 3.2

BQ 42.9 BQ 25.9 BQ 32

OTH 0 OTH 39.8 OTH 35.8

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 1.32

LPC 20.39

NDP 8.57

GPC 5.68

BQ 32.16

OTH 30.99

Result: BQ Gain

Notes: It is extraordinarily difficult to anticipate the success of an independent Member


of Parliament based on polling data which does not ask about independents. Also, the
CPC number is deflated due to the lack of a candidate in 2008.

In 2004, the riding was known as Portneuf.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24052: Québec

Current MP: Christiane Gagnon (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 11.1 CPC 29.8 CPC 25.7

LPC 27 LPC 11.4 LPC 17.5

NDP 5.6 NDP 9.2 NDP 11.8

GPC 4.3 GPC 4.7 GPC 3.3

BQ 50.6 BQ 41.5 BQ 41.8

OTH 1.6 OTH 3.3 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 18.95

LPC 23.2

NDP 9.23

GPC 6.04

BQ 41.14

OTH 0.34

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24053: Repentigny

Current MP: Nicolas Dufour (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 4.8 CPC 18.1 CPC 14

LPC 18.3 LPC 8.7 LPC 15

NDP 3 NDP 7.7 NDP 15.2

GPC 2.9 GPC 3.1 GPC 2.9

BQ 70.1 BQ 62.4 BQ 53.1

OTH 1.1 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.42

LPC 21.68

NDP 11.02

GPC 5.67

BQ 51.68

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24054: Bas - Richelieu -- Nicolet -- Bécancour

Current MP: Louis Plamondon (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 7.7 CPC 23.4 CPC 18.2

LPC 22.7 LPC 13 LPC 16.3

NDP 2.1 NDP 4.5 NDP 8.2

GPC 1.7 GPC 3.2 GPC 2.7

BQ 64.7 BQ 55.9 BQ 54.7

OTH 1.2 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 13.08

LPC 24.66

NDP 5.87

GPC 5.44

BQ 50.38

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes: The riding was known as Richelieu in 2004.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24055: Richmond -- Arthabaska

Current MP: André Bellevance (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 10.4 CPC 32.2 CPC 29

LPC 27.2 LPC 10.4 LPC 12.7

NDP 3.6 NDP 4.9 NDP 8.7

GPC 3.3 GPC 4.4 GPC 2.6

BQ 55.6 BQ 47.9 BQ 46

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 1

Party % of
Vote

CPC 21.74

LPC 20.22

NDP 7.04

GPC 5.72

BQ 44.2

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24056: Rimouski - Neigette -- Témiscouata -- Les Basques

Current MP: Claude Guimond (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 8.9 CPC 22.2 CPC 18.3

LPC 23.8 LPC 19.3 LPC 20.1

NDP 7.1 NDP 9.8 NDP 10.3

GPC 2.6 GPC 2.3 GPC 1.6

BQ 57.6 BQ 46.4 BQ 44.7

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 5

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 12.48

LPC 26.96

NDP 8.68

GPC 4.79

BQ 43.6

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24057: Rivière - des - Milles - Îles

Current MP: Luc Desnoyers (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6.7 CPC 20.9 CPC 19.5

LPC 24.2 LPC 12.8 LPC 17.4

NDP 4.3 NDP 7 NDP 13.3

GPC 3.4 GPC 5.4 GPC 4.2

BQ 61.4 BQ 53.9 BQ 45.7

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 13.22

LPC 24.52

NDP 9.56

GPC 6.82

BQ 45.44

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24058: Montmagny -- L’Islet -- Kamouraska -- Rivière - du -


Loup

Current MP: None (Paul Crête (BQ) Resigned)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 9.1 CPC 25.1 CPC 30.6

LPC 29.6 LPC 14.1 LPC 15.4

NDP 2 NDP 4.6 NDP 5.5

GPC 2.2 GPC 3.8 GPC 2.2

BQ 57.1 BQ 52.4 BQ 46

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0.3

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 21.1

LPC 27.18

NDP 5.17

GPC 5.64

BQ 39.99

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24059: Rivière - du - Nord

Current MP: Monique Guay (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.5 CPC 20.8 CPC 14.5

LPC 21.6 LPC 9.3 LPC 13.6

NDP 2.9 NDP 7.2 NDP 14.5

GPC 2.6 GPC 3.7 GPC 3.3

BQ 66.3 BQ 59.1 BQ 53.6

OTH 1 OTH 0 OTH 0.6

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.6

LPC 20.16

NDP 10.47

GPC 5.89

BQ 52.86

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24060: Roberval -- Lac Saint - Jean

Current MP: Denis Lebel (CPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 8.7 CPC 37.2 CPC 43.5

LPC 23.2 LPC 7.8 LPC 10.1

NDP 5.1 NDP 5.5 NDP 4.7

GPC 3.6 GPC 4.3 GPC 2

BQ 59.4 BQ 45.2 BQ 39.7

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 31.63

LPC 17.92

NDP 4.5

GPC 5.44

BQ 40.01

OTH 0

Result: BQ Gain

Notes: Projection does not include the results of the September 17, 2007 by-election.

In 2004, the riding was known as Roberval.


All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24061: Rosemont -- La - Petite - Patrie

Current MP: Bernard Bigras (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 3.1 CPC 9.3 CPC 7.4

LPC 22.9 LPC 15.8 LPC 18.7

NDP 7.7 NDP 11.6 NDP 16.3

GPC 4.3 GPC 6.6 GPC 4.6

BQ 61.8 BQ 56 BQ 52

OTH 0 OTH 0.8 OTH 1.1

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 2.17

LPC 25.04

NDP 13.35

GPC 7.66

BQ 50.45

OTH 0.24

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24062: Saint Bruno -- Saint Hubert

Current MP: Carole Lavallée (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6.3 CPC 19.8 CPC 15.4

LPC 30.4 LPC 16.4 LPC 22.3

NDP 4.4 NDP 8.3 NDP 13.5

GPC 2.7 GPC 4.5 GPC 3.8

BQ 55.1 BQ 50.3 BQ 45

OTH 1.2 OTH 0.7 OTH 0

Projection

Party % of
Vote

CPC 10.08

LPC 28.42

NDP 10.36

GPC 6.41

BQ 43.82

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24063: Saint - Hyacinthe -- Bagot

Current MP: Ève-Marie Thaï Thi Lac (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 11 CPC 24.8 CPC 21.3

LPC 22.1 LPC 5.5 LPC 13.9

NDP 2.5 NDP 9.8 NDP 14

GPC 2 GPC 3.9 GPC 3.5

BQ 62.4 BQ 56 BQ 47.4

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 15.56

LPC 20.56

NDP 9.68

GPC 5.98

BQ 47.79

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes: Projection does not include results from September 17, 2007 by-election.
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24064: Saint Jean

Current MP: Claude Bachand (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 7.9 CPC 22.1 CPC 17.4

LPC 26 LPC 12.4 LPC 17.7

NDP 3.4 NDP 7 NDP 10.4

GPC 2.7 GPC 4.6 GPC 4

BQ 60.1 BQ 43 BQ 49.6

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 1

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 12.09

LPC 24.04

NDP 7.97

GPC 6.55

BQ 48.24

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24065: Saint Lambert

Current MP: Josée Beaudin (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6.1 CPC 19.7 CPC 15.8

LPC 36.9 LPC 23.3 LPC 28.5

NDP 4.7 NDP 7.4 NDP 14.5

GPC 3.1 GPC 3.9 GPC 3.6

BQ 48.8 BQ 45.3 BQ 37.6

OTH 0.3 OTH 0.4 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 10.25

LPC 34.91

NDP 10.78

GPC 6.22

BQ 37.19

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24066: Saint Laurent -- Cartierville

Current: Stéphane Dion (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6.2 CPC 13.2 CPC 17.2

LPC 66.8 LPC 59.9 LPC 61.7

NDP 6.3 NDP 7.7 NDP 9

GPC 2.1 GPC 4.3 GPC 0

BQ 17.3 BQ 14.6 BQ 11.3

OTH 1.4 OTH 0.4 OTH 0.7

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.48

LPC 68.45

NDP 7.8

GPC 3.99

BQ 8

OTH 0.19

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24067: Saint Léonard -- Saint Michel

Current MP: Massimo Pacetti (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 6 CPC 14.4 CPC 14.9

LPC 63.9 LPC 57.2 LPC 57.3

NDP 5.3 NDP 6.8 NDP 10.7

GPC 2.3 GPC 2.3 GPC 2.8

BQ 21.9 BQ 14.4 BQ 13.6

OTH 0.7 OTH 0.5 OTH 0.7

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 8.27

LPC 64.7

NDP 8.56

GPC 5.22

BQ 12.1

OTH 0.05

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24068: Saint - Maurice -- Champlain

Current MP: Jean-Yves Laforest (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 8.8 CPC 33 CPC 23.9

LPC 30.6 LPC 11.6 LPC 21

NDP 2.4 NDP 7.6 NDP 7.8

GPC 1.8 GPC 3.5 GPC 3.4

BQ 55.3 BQ 44.3 BQ 44

OTH 1.2 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 18.85

LPC 26.51

NDP 6.46

GPC 5.81

BQ 41.76

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24069: Shefford

Current MP: Robert Vincent (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 7.9 CPC 24.8 CPC 19.6

LPC 39.7 LPC 23.4 LPC 21.4

NDP 3.3 NDP 4.7 NDP 12.5

GPC 2.4 GPC 4 GPC 3.7

BQ 46.6 BQ 43.1 BQ 42.8

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 14.08

LPC 31.1

NDP 8.58

GPC 6.34

BQ 39.42

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24070: Sherbrooke

Current MP: Serge Cardin (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 4.3 CPC 20.7 CPC 16.4

LPC 31 LPC 13.2 LPC 19.5

NDP 2.9 NDP 9 NDP 13.1

GPC 3 GPC 4.3 GPC 0

BQ 58.7 BQ 52.2 BQ 50.1

OTH 0 OTH 0.6 OTH 0.9

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 10.6

LPC 26.1

NDP 10.07

GPC 4.15

BQ 47.9

OTH 0.09

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24071: Terrebonne -- Blainville

Current MP: Diane Bourgeois (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.6 CPC 20 CPC 14

LPC 19.7 LPC 9 LPC 16.5

NDP 3.2 NDP 7.5 NDP 13.5

GPC 3.4 GPC 4.3 GPC 3.2

BQ 68.1 BQ 59.2 BQ 52.4

OTH 0 OTH 0 OTH 0.5

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 9.18

LPC 25.14

NDP 9.98

GPC 6.13

BQ 52.37

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24072: Trois - Rivières

Current MP: Paule Brunelle (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 9.4 CPC 31.7 CPC 24.2

LPC 27.4 LPC 10.8 LPC 18.2

NDP 3.5 NDP 7.8 NDP 9.2

GPC 3.2 GPC 3.1 GPC 3.1

BQ 56.5 BQ 45.9 BQ 45.3

OTH 0 OTH 0.8 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 18.79

LPC 24.17

NDP 7.52

GPC 5.73

BQ 43.1

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24073: Vaudreuil -- Soulanges

Current MP: Meili Faille (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election

Party % of Party % of Party % of


Vote Vote Vote

CPC 8.2 CPC 19 CPC 23.7

LPC 38.8 LPC 28.4 LPC 21.3

NDP 3.9 NDP 5.6 NDP 9.6

GPC 3.8 GPC 3.9 GPC 4

BQ 44.3 BQ 43.1 BQ 41.3

OTH 1.1 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 15.14

LPC 32.15

NDP 7.26

GPC 6.56

BQ 38.17

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24074: Verchères -- Les Patriotes

Current MP: Luc Malo (BQ)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 5.6 CPC 21.8 CPC 14.3

LPC 20.2 LPC 8.7 LPC 16.3

NDP 3.7 NDP 8.2 NDP 15.5

GPC 2 GPC 3.9 GPC 3.1

BQ 67.6 BQ 57.4 BQ 50.9

OTH 0.9 OTH 0 OTH 0

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 10.52

LPC 21.44

NDP 10.7

GPC 5.74

BQ 50.96

OTH 0

Result: BQ Hold

Notes:
All Politics is Local Seat Projection (07/03/09)

Riding 24075: Westmount -- Ville - Marie

Current MP: Marc Garneau (LPC)

2004 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election


Party % of Party % of Party % of
Vote Vote Vote

CPC 10.1 CPC 17.7 CPC 15.8

LPC 55.8 LPC 45.7 LPC 46.5

NDP 12 NDP 15.4 NDP 22.9

GPC 6.1 GPC 8.4 GPC 7

BQ 14.8 BQ 12.6 BQ 7.3

OTH 1.3 OTH 0.4 OTH 0.5

Projection:

Party % of
Vote

CPC 10.34

LPC 54.14

NDP 15.83

GPC 7.4

BQ 26.03

OTH 0

Result: LPC Hold

Notes:

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