Modeling Complex SD

DELAYS AND TABLES

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
Types of Rate Equations
(Var.kl = …)
„ Constant*Level.k
„ Level.k/life
„ (goal.k-level.k)/adjustment
„ aux.k*level.k
„ level.k/aux.k
„ norm.k+effect.k
„ norm.k*effect.k
Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
University-Manila
The Spreading Virus Problem
„ Virus starts with a few people who are
susceptible to the virus. These
susceptible people will become infected
and in turn become sick. Once people
get sick, they start taking medicine, as
time progresses, these people will
slowly get cured and on their way to
recovery.
Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
University-Manila
The Spreading Virus Problem

Susceptible People

Recovered People

Infected People

Sick People

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
Examples of Delays: Delay1
R SYMP.KL=DELAY1 (INF.KL, TSS)
Where TSS = time to show symptoms
INF = infection rate
SYMP = symptom rate

Healthy Incubate Sick Recovered

INF SYM REC

Delay1(INF.KL,TIME)

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
 Examples of Delays: Delay3
SYMP.KL=DELAY3 (INF.KL, TSS)
Where TSS = time to show symptoms
INF = infection rate
SYMP = symptom rate

Susceptible Incubate1 Incubate2 Incubate3 Sic

INFC INC1 INC2 INC3

Delay3(INFC.KL,TSS)

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
Effect of Delays
„ What happens to the diagram if there is
an incubation period?
„ What do you think is the behavior of
the levels and the rates in this system?
„ SMOOTH – delay command for
information. Ex. smooth1, smooth3

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
Effect of Delays

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
The TABLE COMMAND
„ TABLE – use to describe a variable that
is not a simple algebraic equation
„ SYNTAX:
A VAR.K = TABLE (table_name, input_to_table, min-x, max-x, x-inc)
T table_name = y0/y1/y2/ … /yn

NOTE: n is equal to the number of x points available between min-x up to max-x.

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
 TABLE Example
A SALESMEN.K = TABLE (TSE, DDRM.K, 0, 10, 1)
T TSE = 400/388/348/292/212/152/100/60/32/12/8
R ORDERS.KL = SALESMEN.K*SALES/PERSON.K
Where
TSE = table for SALEMEN
DDRM.K = delivery delay (level or auxiliary variable, or even a rate
variable)

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Y 400 388 348 292 212 152 100 60 32 12 8

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
TEST Commands
„ RAMP - continuous growing or declining linear function of TIME.
Var = RAMP(A,B)
Where A = represents the slope of the linear function
B = represents the starting time of the ramp
„ NOISE - The noise function allows us to vary the value of a
variable by –0.5 to 0.5. This command allows us to exhibit a
little bit of randomness, but still maintaining the pattern of
behavior. NOISE exhibits a uniform distribution.
Var = A*NOISE()+B
Where A and B are constants and that the value of Var is
centered between A and B.

Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle

University-Manila
 TEST Commands
„ PULSE – creates a sudden increase in the behavior and
drops back to its original state.
„ PULSE(HEIGHT,WIDTH,FIRST,INTVL) – from VENSIM
-A pulse of height , starting at time FIRST and every INTVL
lasting WIDTH time units.
„ STEP – creates a step change in the behavior and does
not return to its original state.
STEP(H,T) – from VENSIM
- Returns 0 till time T and then H.

Note: DYNAMO commands for PULSE and STEP will have a slightly
different syntax.
Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
University-Manila