Center for Industrial Ecology

Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

The Criticality of Materials

Thomas E. Graedel Yale University

Neutron Capture
During Supernova explosion neutrons are captured by the elements present in the star to form heavier elements single neutron capture
56 57 26Fe 27Co

+ 10n 5726Fe 5727Co + 0-1e + 10n 5827Co 5828Ni + 0-1e

etc OR multiple neutron capture

56 26Fe

+ 23 10n 7926Fe 7935Br + 9 0-1e

Metal Linkages in the New Mineralogy

+4 Elements +45 Elements (Potential)

11 Elements

Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006

Elemental Functions in Electronics

Germanium semiconductors Copper circuit connections Tantalum capacitor Antimony diodes Yttrium red phosphor Indium transistors Terbium green phosphor activator Hafnium transistor insulator

60 ELEMENTS 15 ELEMENTS

11 ELEMENTS

Turbine Airfoils for Energy and Aviation

Elemental Usage in Superalloy Turbine Airfoils

Superalloy Coatings

15 elements

Current Elemental Usage in GE Elements Used in Healthcare General Electric Health Care Products
Diagnostic Imaging Clinical Systems

LifeSciences

Interventional Cardiology & Surgery

Medical diagnostics

Integrated Information

The No-Build Periodic Table

V: Steel alloys +45 Elements (Potential) Rh: Catalytic converters

P: Food

Ta: Electronics

In: Flat panel displays

Re: Jet engines U: Nuclear power Dy: Electric motors

Trends in Metal Production

960 Copper (kt Cu) 5,040 Gold (t Au) Lead (kt Pb) 800 Nickel (kt Ni) Iron Ore (Mt) Diamonds (Mcarats) 640 Bauxite (Mt) Manganese (kt Mn ore) Silver (t Ag) 480 Zinc (kt Zn) 2,520 3,360

Annual Production : Cu, Au, Pb, Ni, Fe Ore, Diamonds, Bauxite

320

1,680

160

840

0 1845

1860

1875

1890

1905

1920

1935

1950

1965

1980

1995

0 2010

G. Mudd, 2009, Sustainability of Mining ...

Annual Production : Mn Ore, Ag, Zn

??

4,200

Trends in Ore Grades

30
Gold: 1857 - 50.05; 1858 - 41.23; 1859 - 37.27

3,600 Copper (%Cu) Gold (g/t Au) Lead (%Pb)

25

Ore Grades (Cu, Au, Pb, Zn, Ni, Diamonds)

Zinc (%Zn) Nickel (%Ni) Diamonds (carats/t)

3,000

20

Uranium (kg/t U3O8) Silver (g/t Ag)

2,400

15

1,800

10

1,200

600

0 1840

0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

G. Mudd, 2009, Sustainability of Mining ...

Ore Grade (Ag)

Eras of Elemental Histories

Annual rate of use

??

Era of Discovery

Era of Experimentation

Era of Exploitation

Era of Scarcity

The Exploitation Curve for a Resource Deposit

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Campbell/commons.htm

Peak Oil A Typical Assessment

www.grinningplanet.com/.../peak-oil-article.htm

The Quest for Unobtainium

Source: www.parantar.com/.../ Source: gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog...

Why Dont We Get Metals From Recycling?

Brake Linings: An Example of Dissipative Use

Brake linings contain phenolic resin binder, clay and powder fillers, graphite lubricants, and metallic fibers (Ba, Ca, Ti, Cu, Mg, Cr, Sb, Zn, Zr ) Image courtesy of Sansin Brake Co., etrade.daegu.go.kr/.../Brake_Lining.html

Electronics in the Trash: An Example of Fragmentary Collection

Courtesy of Gothamist.LLC, gothamist.com/2008/02/16/electronics_rec.php

Processing Failures: Electronic Waste Recycling in India

Courtesy of D. Rochat, EMPA, Switzerland

End of Life Recycling Rate (Global) for Sixty-Two Metals UNEP Evaluation as of January, 2010

>50%

>25-50%

>10-25%

1-10%

<1%

???

The U.S. National Academy of Sciences 2007 Study of Resource Sustainability

Determining a Materials Criticality

High Impact of Supply Restriction

Low Low Supply Risk High

The First Dimension of Criticality Supply risk

Geologic availability -- Technical availability Regulatory availability -- Geopolitical availability Social availability -- Market availability

The Second Dimension of Criticality: Impacts of Supply Restriction

Prevents manufacture Impedes product development Influences profitability

Identifying the Region of Danger

High Impact of Supply Restriction Region of Danger

Low Low Supply Risk High

11 Minerals Evaluated

A Possible Major New Supply Risk Scenario

High Impact of Supply Restriction 2010 2020 2030 Region of Danger

T.E. Graedel, 2009

Low Low Supply Risk High

A Possible Major New Use Scenario

High 2010 2020 Importance of uses 2030 Region of Danger

T.E. Graedel, 2007

Low Low Supply Risk High

The Yale Criticality Project

NSF funded, 2009-2012 Several undergraduates, several masters students 5-10 hours per week each

Goals of the Yale Criticality Project

Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is critical Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals Create a family of scenarios to study the possible evolution of metal criticality

Addressing the X-Axis: Supply Risk

X Axis Supply Risk

SR

GTE

S&R

GP

PRB

SRB

PPI

EPI

PSI

HHI

Key Questions to be Answered

What components should be included? How can the inclusion of these components be justified? How can these components be evaluated? How should the component evaluations be aggregated?

The Supply Risk Analytical Sequence

Supply Risk

Geol/Tech/ Econ

Social/ Reg

Geopolitical

PRB

SRB

PPI

PSI

TRI

Fraser Institute (Vancouver, BC) Annual Survey of Mining Companies Purpose: Assess how public policy factors such as taxation and regulation affect exploration investment Participants: Executives and exploration managers in mining and mining consulting companies Coverage: 71 jurisdictions worldwide (subnational in Canada, Australia, USA)

Fraser Institute Evaluation Methodology

Composite index of 13 factors (taxation, uncertainty concerning native land claims, security, environmental regulation, etc.) Scoring (1): For an individual factors, if every respondent evaluates a jurisdiction as 1, it receives a score of 100, as so on down Scoring (2): The 13 factor scores for a jurisdiction are added, and a perfect score again normalized to 100

Fraser Institute Survey Results, 2008-2009

Top ten: Quebec, Wyoming, Nevada, Alberta, Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Manitoba, Chile, Saskatchewan, Ontario Bottom ten: Venezuela, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Bolivia, Zimbabwe, Kyrgyzstan, D.R. Congo, Indonesia

The Policy Potential Index

2008/09PolicyPotentialIndex

4 3.5 N o rm aliz ed sco re 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 PPI Index

Addressing the Y-Axis: Impact of Supply Restriction

Y Axis Impact of Supply Restriction - National

Impact of Supply Restriction

Importance

Substitutabili ty

Innovation

Import Reliance (%)

Industries impacted

Percent of Citizens impacted

Performance

Availability

Environment al impact ratio

Impact of Supply Restriction

Importance

Substitutability

Economic

Cost

Price volatility

Evaluating the Y Axis

Passthrough prospects

Direct Economic Considerations

Risk Level Impacted revenue 5-yr price volatility Ability to pass-through cost increases

Very high

>1000 ppm Revenue

>500%

Nearly impossible

High

>100

ppm Revenue

200-500%

Difficult

Medium

>10 ppm Revenue

100-200%

Partially possible

Low

>1 ppm Revenue

50-100%

Relatively easy

Very low

<1 ppm Revenue

<50%

Done automatically

The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation Concept

ISR

CI

IR

PT

CS

PS

AS

EIR

PR

SR

EI
PRB

GTE

S&R

GP

SRB

PPI

EPI

PSI

HHI

Criticality Project Philosophy

Address all issues that could influence availability or technological interest Where possible, use existing, widelyaccepted metrics

Current Beta Test Elements

Copper Our baseline element for evaluation. No shortage of information, and important uses in power distribution Cadmium A byproduct metal, widely used in batteries, highly toxic Tantalum Crucial metal for electronics, serious geopolitical concerns

Can we stave off this problem, or at least buy some time?

A Mine of the Past: (Bingham Canyon, UT Copper Mine)

Finding the Missing Resource

A Mine of the Future

SRB estimate vs PRB estimate of Stock of Global Copper

800,000,000

700,000,000

600,000,000

Stock Estimate

500,000,000

400,000,000

SRB PRB

300,000,000

200,000,000

100,000,000

The On Ramp

Capacity control (commuter buses, etc.)

The Off Ramp

Enabling Materials Use and Reuse

IMPORT/EXPORT IMPORT/EXPORT

PROCESSING

FABRICATION

USE

DISCARD WASTE MGT.

ORE
STAF Project Yale University 2004

ENVIRONMENT Capacity Control by Dematerialized Design

The On Ramp

The Off Ramp

POSSIBLY LIMITED RESOURCES Resource appears small relative to annual extraction: Au, Cu, PGMs Resource seems to have no obvious substitutes: In, Re, Li, Hf, Er, others Hitchhiker availability only: Cd, Ga, Te, In, others Very large energy requirements: Al, Ti Toxicity limited: Pb, Hg, As, Cd

Tomorrows Periodic Table?

Summary
The industrial sector uses essentially all of the periodic table Elemental choices that appear (at least in the short to medium term) to be unsubstitutable are increasingly used in modern technology Research is now underway to make a realistic assessment of criticality for a number of metals A strong effort to reuse materials buys time to transform technology into a more sustainable form