2009 Mid-Year Real Estate Market Report For Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello

Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
Real Estate Market Analysis

Mid-year 2009
Data compiled and presented by:
86 Joshua Lane
Palmyra,VA 22963
434.589.5800
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market
Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things
you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS
Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however,
is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All
of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted.
The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License.
This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper
attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons by attribution no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any
questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the
report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or
send an email to Stats@StrongTeamRealtors.com.
Strong Team REALTORS

Introduction
Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market
Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical
in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that
such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that.
This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real
estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that
market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We
want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best
decisions for them.
Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show
you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report

The data in this report looks back at the 1st half of 2009 (Jan.-Jun.) and compares it to the same time
period in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville,
Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is
done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the
region.

Total Sales By Area
The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area
for the 1st half of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total.
As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entire
Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 25% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Nelson County has
seen the largest drop-off in sales (-38%), and Albemarle has seen the smallest change (-14%).
Charlottesville, Fluvanna, and Greene Counties have seen a -33%, -34%, and -23% change, respectively.
The positive news is that all of the areas improved from the deficits that were suffered in the first 3 months
of the year. As we noted in our previous analysis of the first quarter of 2009, it was one of the worst ever.
The fact that there was improvement over the last three months is a welcomed sign. While the area is
certainly not going to match or surpass the numbers of 2008, at least there were signs of improvement.

Total Sales by Area
1,200
1,174
1,080
960
840 886
720
600
480 513
439
360
310
240
208
176
120
116 98
75 77
0 48
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson Total
2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello
The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during first have of 2009. In the
previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest
subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it
individually, whenever possible.
Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 36% in total sales in 2009 compared to 2008. Homes outside of
Lake Monticello experienced a 31% drop in sales volume. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello
accounted for 58% of Fluvanna County’s sales in 2009, and accounted for 54% of sales in the County in
2008.

Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales
110
105
99
88
77
71
66 67
55
49
44
33
22
11
0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY Lake Monticello
2009 2008
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month
The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the
monthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the
entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month.
The interesting piece of data in this chart is that sales were almost flat from March to April. Traditionally,
March/April marks the beginning of the spring market. Sales quickly recovered from the slow start to the
season, however, showing a major jump from April to May. The gap in year-over-year sales closed from
-27% in April to 13% in June. While the entire area has been hampered by the start to the year, it is good
to see that two lines are trending in the same fashion.
2008 showed a tremendous fall-off in sales from July to August. It will be very interesting to see if the
same thing happens in 2009. There has historically been a fall in sales in August, but it was especially
significant in 2008. We can only hope that it will be less so in 2009.

Charlottesville Area Sales by Month
295
300 282
255
263
256
225 205
184
178
188 194
166
150 139 140

128
117
132 134
113
90
100
75
70
38
0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
2009 2008
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month
The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the
information is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the
second chart.
In our 1st Quarter report we remarked that both Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello experienced
exceptionally good sales volumes in March. Everyone was hoping this trend would continue in the 2nd
Quarter of the year. It did not.
In fact, while April did continue the positive trend, the tremendous deficits in May and June wiped out the
gains that had been made in the prior months. Rather than seeing the traditional peak in sales in June, sales
fell off significantly in May, and recovered only slightly in June, but still did not surpass the numbers in March
and April.
May sales volume was down 50% and 52% in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, respectively. This is a significant
drop. While sales recovered slightly in June, volume remained down 40% in Fluvanna County and 55% in
Lake Monticello for the month. In looking at the chart, it is easy to see that 2009 did not produce the
typical selling season in Fluvanna or Lake Monticello.
There is no easy explanation for this. In examining the monthly sales volumes for the other areas (not
pictured) all of the areas had a flat or slightly decreasing April and/or May. No area saw a drop as
significant as the one experienced in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. While this data is alarming, our
experience has been that sales seem to have picked up a bit in July, so it remains to be seen if that will be
reflected in the overall numbers.

Fluvanna Sales by Month
50
42
42
34
32
33
30
29
27
26
25
25 26
25 20
24 19
18
17
17 12
15
8
9
0
2009 2008
Lake Monticello Sales by Month
000 29
000
23
21
000
18 18
17
16
18
17 14
000
12
10 13 10
000
10
6
000 6
3
0
2009 2008
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range
The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. This
chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also
compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008.
This chart shows us that the trend of increasing sales in the lower price ranges remains. Very few homes
above $300,000 are selling in Fluvanna County. Conversely, sales in homes below $250,000 have increased
significantly.

Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range
7
0-149,900 5
14
150,000-199,900 19
9
200,000-249,900 4
6
250,000-299,900 8
8
300,000-349,000 10
3
350,000-399,900 17
0
400,000-449,000 4
1
450,000-499,900 3
3
500,000-800,000 4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
2009 2008
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range
The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer
ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008.
As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, sales are obviously trending toward the lower end of
the price ranges. In fact, the only price range that is doing better than it was in 2008 is the $199,000 and
lower price range. Our anecdotal experience was suggesting this to be the case, but the data certainly
validates that experience.

Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range
3
0-149,900 2
33
150,000-199,000 27
16
200,000-249,900 36
9
250,000-299,900 31
3
300,000-349,000 10
1
350,000-399,900 3
4
400,000-449,000 1
0
450,000-499,900 6
2
500,000-800,000 2
0 7 13 20 27 33 40
2009 2008
Median Price by Area
The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is compared
to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY.
The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The
median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The
reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at
either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore,
considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market.
In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the midway point of the year was $276,897.
In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the midway point of the year was $251,694
(-9%). Every area has experienced a drop in median price this year. The median price has actually fallen
throughout the beginning of the year. At the end of the 1st Quarter, the median price was only 4% lower,
compared to 2008.
Lake Monticello experienced a 15% drop in median home price, which is slightly better than the 1st
Quarter. Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 20% drop in the
median price, which is slightly worse than the 1st Quarter.

Median Price by Area
400,000
350,000
300,000 310,733
300,000
281,720 282,500 276,897
250,000 265,000 258,750
246,750 250,000 247,000 251,694
230,000
200,000
200,500 195,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total
2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS * This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello. Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area
The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the
average DOM, through March 31, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello
only.
DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under
contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way
the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the
true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when
DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average
DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower.
The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw the
average DOM for Q1 drop 4 days compared to Q1 2008. This is definitely a positive sign, but we will have
to wait to see if the trend continues.
The difference between DOM in the area from 2008 to 2009 is not statistically significant. In fact, despite
differences both higher and lower in the different areas, all of them remain very close to the numbers seen
in 2008. The lack of a major change in the DOM can be seen as a good thing, as any sign of stability in the
current market is a positive thing.
Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others
remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes are
spending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year.

Days on Market by Area
0.000
172
4.286 161
8.571 132 134 133

126
121 119 121
114 115
2.857 108
92
7.143 84
1.429
5.714
0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total
2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS *This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello. Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake
Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the
inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were
315 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello.
The good news is that we are not seeing huge increases in inventory numbers. For Fluvanna County as a
whole, we remain very close to the numbers experienced in 2008. While it would be ideal to be
experiencing lower numbers, given the fact that sales numbers in the County were so low in May and June,
holding inventory is a small victory, overall.
Lake Monticello continues to see inventory far lower than in 2008. While inventory did increase in May and
June, this is due largely to the fact that sales numbers for those months were so low. The fact that the
market was able to weather that storm without big increases in inventory is a good thing.
We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you an
idea of what to expect going forward.

Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month*
400 394
391
379
393 379 378
380 371 373
359 357
360 353 366
342 357
351
340
326
320
323
315
300
280
260
240
2009 2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month

Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*
200
186 187 186
190 183
185
182
180 175 175 174

169 168
170
157
160
162
150
149 150
147
140 143
145
130
120
110
100
2009 2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month

Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in
Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column
includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello.
This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving
when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and
compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions,
there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect
of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the
percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated.
As of the midway point of the year, homeowners in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello were walking away with a
slightly lower percentage of list price in 2009, compared to 2008. Each percentage point represents $1000
per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price, the final contract price was $192,000.
As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning
that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at
the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to
receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and
sellers should act accordingly.

Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage)
100
99
98
97 97.08
96.79
96.55
96 96.08
95
94
93
92
91
90
Fluvanna Lake Monticello ONLY
2009 2008
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats
The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31
in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The
chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold.
2009 has not been kind to waterfront homeowners. As of right now, waterfront inventory is at an all-time
hight. This is due to the fact that there were only 3 waterfront sales in the first 6 months of 2009. Median
and Average sales prices reflect the struggles of the waterfront market, both being down significantly
compared to 2008.
Demand for waterfront homes doesn’t seem to be down, as we are showing many homes to potential
waterfront buyers. We already know there is no lack of supply for waterfront homes. So, it would appear
that the issue with the waterfront market is that buyers are not satisfied with either the price or condition
of the homes in the supply. Until that disconnect is corrected, it stands to reason that waterfront sales will
continue to struggle.

Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics*
490,000
475,000 481,944
441,000
428,000 423,250
392,000
343,000
294,000
245,000
196,000
147,000
98,000
49,000
0
Median Price Average Price
2009 2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 3 sales in 2009, 8 sales in 2008
Conclusion
The first two months of 2009 were two of the worst months we have ever seen. The numbers bear that
out. While everyone was hopeful that those months would be erased with a strong selling season, such a
season never emerged in the 2nd Quarter. Quite to the contrary, May and June were almost as bad as the
January and February numbers, relative to the same months in 2008. One might think that this fact,
coupled with a falling median price, is cause to cry that the sky is falling. That would be an overreaction.
The fact is that market correction is a necessary thing. The only way that the market is going to experience
stability is for prices to find a level at which supply and demand meet. The market is oblivious to our desire
for prices to climb higher. Reality might be harsh in the short term, but this short term pain is necessary
for long-term stability.
One sign of possible stability will be the numbers in the 3rd quarter. If those numbers show a bit of a
recovery in sales, then it would indicate that we are reaching a more stable market. Right now, with the
selling season behind us, we can only hope and watch for a relatively normal 3rd quarter. If that is the case,
then we could also reasonably expect the traditional sales trends to return in 2010. Right now, it seems as
if we may look back on 2009 and call it the bottom of the downturn.
The important thing to remember is that “recovery” doesn’t mean wild appreciation. The best that can be
expected from a “recovery” is some measure of price and sales stability. That might be achievable in 2009.
Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make
an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good
information provided the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals.

Thank you
We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake
Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both
informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find
it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market
analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to Stats@StrongTeamRealtors.com.
It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to
achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about
real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever
it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.

86 Joshua Lane
Palmyra, VA 22963
434-589-5800
StrongTeamRealtors.com

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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

Real Estate Market Analysis

Data compiled and presented by:

creative commons by attribution no derivatives

Strong Team REALTORS

Scope of this report

Strong Team REALTORS

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150 139 140

Strong Team REALTORS

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8.571 132 134 133

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*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month

180 175 175 174

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month

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