http://www.wwfpak.org/nap/dnap_climatechange_research.

php Existing research on climate Change in Northern Areas:

Although there is not extensive literature and data on climate change in the Northern Areas, yet some research in this area does exist and some is underway. Study of climate change involves looking at trends in temperature, precipitation, glacial movements and vegetation changes, among others and linking them to global or regional causes. It also involves computer simulations using various models. Studies have shown that land surface temperatures have risen more than sea surface temperatures and that temperatures in higher elevations are rising more rapidly (Liu and Chen, 2000; Beniston et al., 1997). Therefore mountain areas such as the Karakorums and Himalaya region of Pakistan could prove to be a good laboratory for studying climate change. GTZ/WAPDA: A study carried out by GTZ for WAPDA analyzed trends in temperature and precipitation in the Northern Areas for the last century by making use of the climate data at the Meteorological Office in Lahore and Gilgit (Archer, 2001). A copy of this report is available in the WWF Gilgit library. This study, broadly speaking, found that at Skardu seasonal and annual temperature have risen over the last century. Mean annual temperature through the century has increased by 1.40C with the mean annual daily maximum rising more (2.350C) than the mean annual daily minimum (0.540C). But the study notes that winter temperatures have risen far more than summer, with an increase of about 3 0C during JanuaryMarch or up to 0.51oC in winter maxima per decade since 1961. This is a common feature within the Northern hemisphere and implies a link between regional and global climate (Fowler and Archer, 2004). This temperature increase is calculated to represent an upward shift of almost 400 meters in the frost line and hence whether the area will receive snow or rain and as a consequence how much snow will be available for melt during the warm season. During the spring to summer season a more modest warming trend is noted, with mean temperature rising by only 0.770C. For Gilgit, the study interestingly found that the mean winter temperature over the last century has risen only by 0.820C while the mean summer temperature has actually declined by 1.610C. This has resulted more from reduction in summer minimum temperatures (ranging from -0.4 to -1.11 oC per decade) and not so much from the cooling of summer maximum temperature. Overall mean annual temperature has also fallen by 0.410C. Similar to Skardu, the mean annual daily maximum has risen by 1.340C but the mean annual daily minimum has fallen by over 20C. These trends have intensified since 1961. Table . Hundred year change in temperature at Gilgit and Skardu

Temp measure Mean annual temp Mean annual daily max Mean annual daily min Jan-Mar mean Apr-Jun mean Jul-Sep mean Oct-Dec mean Frost free days

Change 1900-99 Skardu 0C + 1.37 +2.35 +0.54 +2.92 +0.99 +0.72 +0.93 +12 days

Change 1900-99 Gilgit 0C -0.41 +1.34 -2.17 +0.82 -1.94 -1.03 +0.24 -4.5 days

Source: Source: Archer, D. R. 2001. The climate and hydrology of northern Pakistan with respect to assessment of flood risks to hydropower schemes. Report by GTZ/WAPDA.

For precipitation the study found that at both Gilgit and Skardu annual rainfall has increased. Moreover there is an increase in rainfall for all seasons at both stations. Even the annual one day maximum rainfall has risen from 12 to almost 30 mm at Skardu and from 9 to 28 mm at Gilgit. Archer asks whether these changes are confined to the valleys or are representative of the region as a whole. He suggests that changes in precipitation at high elevations can be inferred only by examining annual increments of firn ice in ice cores, since direct measurements of snowfall and ice accumulation are not very reliable. He also gives rainfall data from Bunji, Astore and Drosh where the first two show significant increases in the last half-century but a decrease at Drosh. Here it should be added that while the above mentioned GTZ study shows a decrease in mean annual summer temperature for Gilgit over the last century, popular perceptions hold that summers have gotten warmer. It is also said that winter snowfall in Nagar does not stay as long on the ground as it used to about ten years ago. Therefore a conflict remains between measured records and such perceptions for summer but for winter it confirms popular feeling. International Water Management Institute, Lahore: IWMI conducted a study whereby it searched various components of the water cycle in the Northern Areas to find clues for climate change (Khan, 2001). The assumption of this study was that a change in climate has a magnified affect on hydrologic time series. It analyzed temperature and precipitation data for 30 years, in monthly time step, from seven stations in the Indus catchment upstream from Tarbela, including Gilgit and Skardu. Monthly inflows into Tarbela reservoir for the same period were also analyzed. The results showed that a large periodic component was present in the temperature series (Tmax and Tmin) but this was mostly explained by the annual temperature cycle, and there was no trend in this series. There were no trend components in the precipitation series or in the monthly Tarbela inflow either. The large periodic component in the Tarbela inflow data was explained by the temperature cycle. This study therefore concluded that the statistical analysis of meterological and hydrological data in the upper Indus Basin does not show any trends in the time series that may be caused by greenhouse warming of the climate. However, the author says that just because the study could not detect any trends does not mean that climate change should be ruled out. He says that the study sample size may be small, the data may contain errors or not be sensitive enough, or time series analysis techniques may not be sophisticated enough to deal with complex climate change issues or capture climate induced trends in the temp and precip data. University of Marburg, Germany: Another study Miehe (1992) examined vegetation changes in the Karakorams and came to the conclusion that rainfall has decreased in the region. However Archer (2001) says that the vegetation changes can be explained not really by a decrease in rainfall but an increase in temperature which gives rise to less snowfall and thus less melt water available in the spring for cultivation. Canadian research: Other studies have measured glacial surges in the Karakorams over the past few decades (Hewitt, 1998). Surges are relatively short-lived episodes involving a sudden increase in ice movement by at least one, and sometimes two, order of magnitude, compared to pre-surge and postsurge behavior (ibid.). Hewitt reports that five confirmed and three other reported surges have taken place in the last decade in the Karakorams which is quite a high number. Possible explanations for the surges include fluctuations in thermal or hydrological conditions or in sub-glacial sediment, acting alone or in combination. Therefore many surging glaciers in the region might imply changing climatic conditions. It has been suggested in this paper that since one third of the snow accumulation in the higher elevations occurs during summer, hence sudden surges (or retreats) of glaciers may relate to changes in the intensity of the summer precipitation. An increase in surges may indicate increase in summer precipitation on the higher mountains (just as the Archer 2001 study found increase in summer precipitation in the valleys). Remote sensing: Additionally, a SPOT panchromatic image of the Batura Glacier taken in the early 1990s reveals that this glacier has been retreating significantly in recent years (Shroder and Bishop, 1999). This glacier, at 58 km in length, is the eighth largest mid-latitude glacier in the world and has been

studied quite extensively over the last century (Appendix 3). Moreover, although no systematic studies have been done, there is strong circumstantial evidence that the remote Baltoro glacier has also been receding up the valley over the past few decades (ibid.). Appendix 3 shows that the glaciers of this area have been studied for a long time by a variety of researchers, although not always with respect to climate change. Some of these works are available locally but much of it is not easily accessed, and hence many of these works are not even known within Pakistan. This bibliography is included to give an idea of such research. Other glacial research: Another study reports that historical records for glacial fluctuations in the region show a general pattern of glacial retreat since the 1850s (Searle and Owen, 1999). This is in accordance with observations of the World Glacier Monitoring Service based in Switzerland that mountain glaciers around the world have been diminishing for the last 30 years including in the Karakorams (WGMS, 2000). This may very well be attributable to global climate change, but more needs to be done to make this causal connection. However other research suggests that some glaciers are advancing in the Karakoram region (see Wake and Searle, 1993 in Appendix 3). Other researchers have studied fluctuations in the Raikot glacier in the Nanga Parbat region and other glaciers of the Northern Areas and they could be useful in studying and predicting climate change (BGIG, 1979; Garnder, 1986; Goudie et al, 1984). Director to Special Advisor to the Chief Executive of Pakistan, Islamabad: A paper written by him analyzes data to see if climate change is occurring in Pakistan (Ahmed, 2001). Its premise is that if there is climate change then it should be reflected in the river flow data of Pakistan from the 1990s. Ahmed writes that in the post-Tarbela era the water diverted from rivers into canals has been pretty constant at 104 MAF per year. Therefore the water flowing into the sea could be taken as a good indication of the total river flow for this period. The results are tabulated below. Table . Changes in freshwater flow to the sea in Pakistan

Period Yearly average 1975-1990 1990-2000 Winter average 1975-1990 1990-2000

River flow to the sea (MAF/yr)

Percentage change

34.13 47.88 + 40

1.86 3.28 + 76

From 1975-90 the river outflow into the sea has been 34.13 MAF per year on average. But from 19902000 this flow has been 47.88 MAF per year which is a 40% increase. Similarly the winter flow for 1975-90 was 1.86 MAF per year but from 1990-2000 it increased to 3.28 MAF per year, a 76% increase. Ahmed takes this as evidence of global warming since such warming is expected to initially increase glacial melt (and hence increase river flow) and later produce glacial retreat resulting in decreased river flow. This paper also contends that an overall average increase of 50-150 mm has been seen for the monsoon belt of the country for the period 1931-1990 but a decrease of 50-100 mm has been recorded for the western and northern mountain areas for the same period of time. These variations agree with the expected effects of global warming. The source of the river outflow and rainfall data on which the author has based his analysis is a report prepared by the PCRWR, Ministry of Science and Technology, Pakistan Meterological Department and

other relevant ministries. Therefore the data would seem to be reasonably reliable. But the inference of climate change from river flow data seems to be circumstantial and not based on any concrete modeling or quantitative data analysis. Pakistan Forest Institute, Peshawar: This study was not confined to studying climate change in the Northern Areas and it did not conduct field research to see actual signs of climate change. But it is worth mentioning here because it employed computer modeling to see what would happen to the forests of the country if there were a certain change in temperature and precipitation (Siddiqui et al., 1999). It assumed a 0.3C rise in temperature and a precipitation change of 0, +1 and -1% per decade with 1990 as the base year. The current atmospheric CO2 concentration of 350 ppm was assumed to increase to 425 ppm in 2020, 500 ppm in 2050 and 575 ppm in 2080. Three biomes (alpine tundra, grassland/arid woodlands and deserts) showed a reduction in their area, and five biomes (cold conifer/mixed woodland, cold conifer/mixed forests, temperate conifer/mixed forests, warm conifer/mixed forests, and steppe/arid shrub lands) showed an increase in their area as a result of climate change. Some of these biomes are found in the Northern Areas. Net primary productivity showed an increase in all biomes and scenarios. The study concludes that forest dieback and time lag could occur before the dominant plant types have enough time to adjust to changed climate and migrate to new sites. In the intervening period, the biomes would be vulnerable to environmental and socio-economic disturbances such as erosion, deforestation, and land-use changes. Siddiqui (1997) also reports that all modeling predicts enhanced rainfall in Pakistan if carbon dioxide levels double in the next 50 years. These models project a 25-40% increase in winter and 40-70% increase in summer rainfall over the central and northern parts of Pakistan. Sustainable Policy Research Institute, Islamabad: Although this research was not confined to the Northern Areas, yet it examined the impact of climate change on forestry and demand and supply of water in Pakistan with and without climate change over the next 50 years. The assumed change was an increase of 0.90C by 2020 and 1.80C by 2050 and a precipitation change of 3% by 2020 and 6% by 2050 (Khan, 2000). This study relied on modeling and came up with the following results: The BIOME3 model simulations showed that five biomes increased and three decreased in extent as a result of climate change, while one stayed constant. For the Northern Areas, two biomes, the alpine tundra and dry temperate woodlands showed a reduction and one, the cold coniferous forest showed an increase. Additionally, the following table shows the results of in-house calculations by the SDPI Water Sector Team in regards to demand and supply of water with and without climate change. Table . (a) Water demand-supply balances without climate change (in MAF)

Year Projected Irrigation Water Demand (with Kalabagh) Households & Industry Total projected demand Projected Supply Projected deficit

2000

2010

2020

2050

104.87

110.04

110.04

110.04

5.90 110.77 104.87 5.90

8.70 118.74 110.04 8.70

12.00 122.04` 110.04 12.00

20.00 130.04 110.04 20.00

(b) Water demand-supply balances with projected climate change (in MAF)

Year Projected irrigation water demand (with Kalabagh) Households & industry Total Projected Demand Projected releases Projected deficit

2000

2010

2020

2050

104.87

110.04

110.04

110.04

5.90 110.77 104.87 5.90

9.20 119.24 110.04 9.20

12.50 122.54 108.85 13.69

20.50 130.54 106.98 23.56

The assumption here is the construction of the Kalabagh dam or other dams and additional uptake of groundwater resources. Climate change mainly impacts the supply of water. However, one caveat is that the impact of socio-economic changes by 2050 on water budget is hard to disentangle from climate change impact. In other words, changes such as increase in population, industry and agricultural demands may contribute to the increased water deficit along with the reduced supply of water due to climate change, but this modeling has tried to estimate these figures anyway. Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan: This is an inter-governmental network for the promotion of global change research in the Asia-Pacific region. Under its auspices a project was started in 2002 titled Water resources in South Asia: an assessment of climate change associated vulnerabilities and coping mechanisms. The project leader is Dr. Amir Muhammed of Asianics AgroDevelopment International, Islamabad and participating countries are Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and the USA. The principle aims of this project are to analyze recent climatic variability and extreme events and their impact on water resources, and to assess the impact of projected climate change and associated extreme events on the water resources of the countries. Some of the main activities of the first year included:

--- Review of national climatic variability and extreme events (floods, droughts) over the last 50 years ---- Assessment of biophysical and socio-economic impacts of past climate variability (Dr. Amir Muhammed, Project Leader, Asianics Agro-Development International, Islamabad, pers. comm..)

National Agricultural Research Center, Islamabad: The NARC is engaged in a project whereby they aim to do a complete inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes in the Northern Areas. They are presently working on one time series and are trying to obtain several others so that a better picture of glacial change in time can be constructed. They have divided the Northern Areas into ten basins. They have completed the inventory of five basins and are now working in the second phase where they are studying five more basins. They also plan to start the third phase (Dr. Rakhshan Roohi, NARC, pers. comm.) Global Change Impact Study Center, Islamabad: This group is also studying climate change and its impact on water and agricultural resources in Pakistan, including the Northern Areas. Through various models they are looking at how much water is coming from glaciers and from precipitation and predicting how climate change on a regional basis could affect these parameters which in turn would affect water usage and crop cultivation downstream. They hope to publish some results soon in refereed journals (Dr. Sayyed Sajideen, Director, Global Change Impact Study Center, pers. comm.). WAPDA, Lahore: WAPDA is about to start a project with other partners to study glaciers in the western Karakoram ranges and to see whether they are growing or retreating. The Head of WAPDAs Snow and Ice Hydrology Project said that while glaciers are retreating in the eastern Himalayas, some of them are actually growing in the western Karakorams and the project will be to examine this anomalous glacial behavior (Dr. Danial Hashmi, Director, Snow and Ice Hydrology Project, WAPDA, Lahore, pers. comm.).