Alternative Energy Scenarios For CO Emission Simulation: Sascha Samadi

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation
By Sascha Samadi On behalf of Dr. Manfred Fischedick Director of research group Future Energy and Mobility Structures Presentation at Workshop on Energy Scenarios Organised by clisap 11/09/2008
Overview
Energy scenarios definition and classification Introduction to various global energy scenarios released in recent years
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) energy [r]evolution (Greenpeace/DLR) World Energy Technology Outlook 2050 (European Commission) How to Combat Global Warming (Bellona)
Main scenario results

Primary energy supply CO2 emissions of energy sector
11/09/2008
Overview
Main elements of mitigation strategies of alternative scenarios and their effects on CO2 emissions
Reduction of final energy consumption Reduction of CO2 emissions per unit of final energy consumption
A closer look at energy models different types and weaknesses
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Energy scenarios definition and classification

Energy scenarios are
alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties. (IPCC SRES) Scenarios are different from forecasts In general two types of energy scenarios are distinguished:
Reference (or baseline) scenarios Alternative (or intervention or mitigation) scenarios
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Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) Introduction

Nakicenovic, N. et al (2000): Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge Prepared to develop emission scenarios for IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) SRES emission scenarios also used in Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and in many other publications Four different narrative storylines (A1, A2, B1, B2) were developed to describe consistently the relationships between emission driving forces until 2100
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Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) Scenario storyline overview
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Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) Scenarios of different storylines

For each storyline several different scenarios were developed using different modelling approaches All SRES scenarios are non-intervention scenarios, i.e. they do not include (additional) climate initiatives The resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the range of uncertainties of future GHG emissions The range of annual global CO2 emissions over the 21st century of the 40 SRES scenarios is substantial
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Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) CO2 emissions of illustrative scenarios (in Gt C/a)
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World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Introduction

IEA - International Energy Agency (2007): World Energy Outlook 2007, OECD and International Energy Agency report, Paris Intends to describe key trends of global energy market and help IEA member countries identify and prepare for future supply constraints A main focus of WEO 2007 was improving accuracy of energy data used, especially regarding China and India WEO 2007 consists of four scenarios, each extending to 2030
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World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Reference scenarios

Reference Scenario No new energy-policy interventions by governments Used as Reference to test alternative assumptions about future policies Global CO2 emissions in 2030 are 57% above 2005 emissions No Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) employed High Growth Scenario Derived from Reference Scenario, assuming higher economic growth in India and China (1.5 percentage points/a). Constructed to take into account high uncertainty regarding Indias and Chinas future growth path Global CO2 emissions in 2030 are 68% above 2005 emissions
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World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Alternative scenarios

Alternative Policy Scenario Assumes implementation of energy-related policies and measures that governments around the world are currently considering Intended to provide policy makers with practical guidance concerning potential impact and costs of the options they are considering Global CO2 emissions in 2030 are 27% above 2005 emissions No CCS employed 450 Stabilisation Case Explores what needs to be done until 2030 to have a chance of achieving long-term stabilization of GHG at about 450 ppm CO2-eq. Part of IEAs response to request from G8 leaders at Gleneagles Summit in 2005 Global CO2 emissions in 2030 are 14% below 2005 emissions CCS employed in power generation and industry
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World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Energy model used

IEA uses its World Energy Model (WEM) to generate the projections for all the scenarios in WEO 2007:
WEM is a partial equilibrium bottom-up model with a rich technology representation of all energy sectors GDP growth and international energy prices are exogenous Current WEM is comprised of nearly 16,000 equations, is the 11th version of the model and covers 21 regions Oil and other commodity prices are determined by the model IEA statistical databases are primarily used for model data input, additional data from a wide range of external sources also used
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) Introduction and baseline scenario

IEA - International Energy Agency (2008): Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Paris Part of response of IEA to G8 energy ministers request Consists of one reference scenario and two main alternative scenarios, all extending to 2050
Baseline scenario Assumes there are no new energy-policy interventions by governments and no major supply constraints Consistent with WEO 2007 Reference Scenario until 2030; trends extended until 2050 based on ETP 2008 model analysis CO2 emissions in 2050 are 130% higher than today
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) Alternative scenarios

ACT Map scenario Global CO2 emissions peak between 2020 and 2030 and are brought back to current levels by 2050 Wide ranges of technologies that exist or are in an advanced state of development are adopted with marginal costs of about 50 USD/t CO2 BLUE Map scenario More speculative than ACT Map scenarios Global CO2 emissions are reduced by 50% from current levels Requires rapid development and widespread uptake of technologies. Marginal costs assumed to be at least 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050. CCS for power generation and industry is most important single new technology for CO2 savings, in 2050 it accounts for 19% of total CO2 savings compared to baseline scenario
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) Variants of alternative scenarios

Five additional variant scenarios are derived from both ACT Map and BLUE Map scenarios; each assumes different technological developments in power sector For instance: A BLUE variant scenario assuming no use of CCS results in CO2 emissions in 2050 which are 46% higher than in BLUE Map scenario (20.4 compared to 14 Gt CO2) Four more variant scenarios are derived from (only) the BLUE Map scenario taking into account uncertainties concerning future technological developments in the transport sector
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) Energy model used

IEA primarily uses its Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model to generate the ACT and BLUE scenarios
Belonging to MARKAL family of bottom-up modelling tools Cost-optimisation used Focuses on technological change Calibrated primarily with IEA statistics Supplemented with detailed demand-side models for all major end-uses
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energy [r]evolution (Greenpeace/DLR) Introduction

Greenpeace and European Renewable Energy Council (2007): energy [r]evolution A Sustainable World Energy Outlook, http://www.energyblueprint.info/fileadmin/media/documents/energy_r evolution.pdf Commissioned by Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) Prepared from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and project partners Aims to show how deep cuts in energy-related CO2 emissions can be achieved while at the same time phasing out use of nuclear power Consists of two global energy scenarios until 2050
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energy [r]evolution (Greenpeace/DLR) Scenarios

Reference Scenario Based on IEAs World Energy Outlook 2004 Reference Scenario Extended until 2050 Global CO2 emissions in 2050 are 97% higher than 2003 emissions energy [r]evolution scenario Global CO2 emissions in 2050 are half of 2000 emissions Nuclear power phased out completely shortly after 2030 Huge energy efficiency improvements Implementation of various political measures to significantly increase energy efficiency and renewable energy diffusion No use of CCS assumed
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energy [r]evolution (Greenpeace/DLR) Energy model used

Global energy model MESAP/PlaNet used to develop the two scenarios:
Bottom-up energy sector model MESAP determines the least-cost energy supply to meet a given final energy demand under constraints like a CO2 emission limit PlaNet (MESAP module) is used to determine final energy demand in the energy [r]evolution scenario while assuming that technologically and economically feasible energy efficiency potentials in end-use sectors are exploited
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World Energy Technology Outlook 2050 (EC/Enerdata) Introduction

EC - European Commission (2006): World Energy Technology Outlook 2050, http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/weto-h2_en.pdf Commissioned by European Commission Directorate-General for Research (DG Research) and prepared by French research institute Enerdata and consortium partners Study focuses on possible future developments of European energy market, taking into account interdependencies with energy market developments in other regions Major objective is to identify energy technologies that will be important in the future in order to help identify research priorities One reference scenario and two alternative scenarios are modelled until 2050
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World Energy Technology Outlook 2050 (EC/Enerdata) Scenarios

Reference Case Continuation of existing economic and technological trends Only moderate climate policies assumed CO2 emissions in 2050 are 88% above 2001 emissions CCS will only have a significant impact after 2040 Carbon Constraint Case More ambitious climate policies Aims at long-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 below 550 ppmv CO2 emissions in 2050 are 8% above 2001 emissions Optimistic assumptions regarding CCS By 2050 62% of electricity generation from fossil fuels (coal and gas) is in plants equipped with CCS
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World Energy Technology Outlook 2050 (EC/Enerdata) Scenarios and energy model used
H2 Case Series of technology breakthroughs are assumed (deliberately optimistic) that significantly increase cost-effectiveness of key hydrogen technologies, especially in end-use sector Share of hydrogen in energy end-use reaches 5% in Europe in 2050 CO2 emissions in 2050 are 16% above 2001 emissions Rapid progress in CCS, as in Carbon Constraint Case; CCS also used for hydrogen production
All three scenarios are developed using the POLES energy model:
Energy supply as well as energy demand is modelled Energy supply modelled by using bottom-up energy sector structure Energy demand determined using a top-down approach within POLES Simulation approach to determine how energy demand is met (no optimization)
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How to Combat Global Warming (Bellona) Introduction

Environmental Foundation Bellona (2008): How to Combat Global Warming, http://www.bellona.org/filearchive/fil_Bellona_CC8_Report__Final_version_-_30_mai.pdf Aims to show how an 85% reduction in human-induced global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be achieved until 2050 Authors state that cost-optimization is not the main focus of their GHG mitigation strategy as uncertainties about future costs are large Study also looks specifically at non-energy GHG and their mitigation potential One reference scenario and an alternative scenario are modelled until 2050
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How to Combat Global Warming (Bellona) Scenarios

Business as usual Scenario Based on scenarios of IPCC, IEA and World Resource Institute Energy sector CO2 emissions in 2050 are about 110% above 2005 emissions Bellona Scenario Authors identify ambitious yet realistic and technically feasible mitigation measures Final energy demand of business as usual scenario is adjusted for assumed lifestyle changes Nuclear power is phased out completely by 2050 Energy sector CO2 emissions in 2050 are 85% below 2005 emissions Heavy use of CCS leads to a carbon negative power generation sector in 2050
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How to Combat Global Warming (Bellona) (Energy) model used

GHG emissions, not the energy sector, are main focus of model However, primary energy and electricity supply was also modeled Bellona uses internally developed model based on spreadsheets to calculate alternative scenario; GHG emissions are calculated as reductions in GHG emissions compared to business as usual scenario Reference scenario largely based on WEO 2007 and Energy Technology Perspectives 2006 To calculate alternative scenario the model uses different sectors, including non-energy related sectors and six world regions Bellona Scenario not based on economic modeling but on literature describing mitigation potential
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Main scenario results
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Primary energy supply (in EJ/a) and energy sector CO2 emissions (in Gt/a) in reference scenarios
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 60
59
62
Primary energy in EJ/add
50
42 39 36 27 42 44 45
40 30 20 10 0
Actual
WEO WETO 2007
e[r]
ETP 2008
WETO
e[r]
ETP Bellona 2008
2005
2030
2050
Coal Hydro
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Oil Biomass and waste
Gas Other renewables
Nuclear CO2 emissions

26
CO2 emissions in Gt/a
Primary energy supply (in EJ/a) and energy sector CO2 emissions (in Gt/a) in alternative scenarios
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 60 CO2 emissions in Gt/a 50 40
34 27 29 25 16 14
Primary energy in EJ/a
30 20
12 3
10 0
Actual
WEO 2007
WETO
e[r]
ETP 2008
WETO
e[r]
Bellona
2005
2030
2050
Coal Hydro
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Oil Biomass and waste
Gas Other renewables
Nuclear CO2 Emissions

27
Main scenario results CO2 emissions in reference scenarios (in Gt/a)

70 60
Gt CO2/a
50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 Actual e[r] Reference 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ETP 2008 Baseline WETO Reference
WEO 2007 Reference Bellona Reference

28
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Main scenario results CO2 emissions in alternative scenarios (in Gt/a)

70 60 50
Gt CO2/a
40 30 20 10 0 1990 Actual WEO 2007 Alternative Bellona Alternative 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ETP 2008 Baseline e[r] Revolution
ETP 2008 Blue Map WETO Carbon Constraint
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CO2 mitigation options in the energy sector
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Classification of CO2 mitigation options in the energy sector

Reducing final energy consumption
Improving efficiency of final energy use Demand reductions for energy services (lifestyle changes)
Reducing CO2 emissions per unit of final energy consumption

Improving efficiency of fossil fuel energy transformation Replacement of carbon-intensive fuels by cleaner alternatives Switching from high-carbon to lower-carbon fossil fuels Renewable energy expansion Nuclear power expansion Role of CCS technology
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Improving efficiency of final energy use

All scenarios expect final energy intensity to keep improving in the coming decades Final energy intensity = final energy per unit of gross world product In the reference scenarios final energy will improve at an average annual rate of between 1.4% and 1.8% In all alternative scenarios discussed here this rate is higher than in their respective reference scenarios.
Considerably higher in the alternative studies of the IEA and Greenpeace/DLR studies (between 2.3% and 2.5%) Only slightly higher in the alternative scenario of the WETO study (1.7% compared to 1.4% in the WETO reference scenario)
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Improving efficiency of final energy use Final energy demand in reference and alternative scenarios
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 actual WEO 2007 e[r] WETO ETP 2008 e[r] WETO
in EJ/a
2005
2030 Reference Alterantive

33
2050
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Demand reduction for energy services (lifestyle changes)

Only the Bellona study and (to a small extent) Greenpeace/DLR study consider for their alternative scenarios that demand for energy services is reduced compared to demand in respective reference scenarios In the Bellona study about 10% of all GHG emission reductions in 2050 (relative to business as usual) are the result of lifestyle changes The Greenpeace/DLR study mentions the need for changes in lifestyle only in the transport sector
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Role of nuclear energy

There are considerable differences in the expected role of nuclear energy in reference scenarios
The WETO study expects nuclear energy to contribute more than four times the amount of energy in 2050 compared to today The ETP 2008 and the Bellona study expect an increase of one third of todays contribution In the reference scenario of Greenpeace/DLR nuclear energy contribution will remain the same in 2050 as it is today
The alternative scenarios also differ greatly in regard to the role of nuclear power.
Expanded significantly in ETP 2008 Further increased from its high reference scenario level in the WETO study Phase-out globally until about 2030 (Greenpeace) and until 2050 (Bellona) in alternative scenarios of these groups studies
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Role of renewable energy

Compared to nuclear power, there appears to be more of an agreement regarding the future expansion of renewable energies in a business-as-usual scenario. Renewable energy contribution about doubles in all the reference scenarios considered here Expanded use of renewable energies is a key contribution to CO2 mitigation in all alternative scenarios reviewed. In 2050 in most alternative scenarios primary energy supply from these sources will be 150% to 250% above 2005 levels Bellonas alternative scenario is a notable exception as its primary energy supply from renewables in 2050 is more than 450% higher than it was in 2005
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Role of renewable and nuclear energy Contribution in reference scenarios (in EJ/a)
400 350 300 250
in EJ/a
200 150 100 50 WEO 2007 WEO 2007 ETP 2008 Bellona 0 Actual e[r] e[r] WETO WETO WETO
37
2005
2020
2030
2050
renewables
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nuclear
e[r]
Role of renewable and nuclear energy Contribution in alternative scenarios (in EJ/a)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 WEO 2007 WEO 2007 ETP 2008 Bellona 0 Actual e[r] e[r] WETO WETO WETO
38
in EJ/a
2005
2020 renewables
2030 nuclear
2050
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e[r]
Role of renewable and nuclear energy

As seen, in the alternative scenario of the WETO study the contribution in 2050 of renewable and nuclear energy together is almost twice the amount it is in the Greenpeace/DLR alternative scenario However, due to the much smaller primary energy demand in the Greenpeace/DLR alternative scenario the primary energy share of non-fossil energy in 2050 is higher there than it is in the alternative scenario of the WETO study
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Role of renewable and nuclear energy Share of primary energy supply in alternative scenarios
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% WEO 2007 WEO 2007 ETP 2008 Bellona 0% Actual
e[r]
e[r]
WETO
WETO
2005
2020
2030
renewables
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nuclear
40
WETO
2050
e[r]
Role of CCS technology

Most alternative scenarios regard CCS as important mitigation option that will contribute significantly to CO2 emission reductions by 2050 The alternative scenario of WEO 2007 does not assume any use of CCS as it only runs until 2030 and authors express doubts about whether technical and cost challenges can be overcome before 2030 As Greenpeace is opposed to CCS, its alternative scenario is the only scenario which assumes that this technology will not be used
CO2 sequestered in 2050 ETP 2008 WETO e[r] Bellona
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CO2 sequestered by 2050 (cumulated) n.s. 140 Gt 0 Gt 236 Gt
Share of fossil fuel power plants equipped with CCS (in %) in 2030 in 2050 n.s. ~35 % 0% ~30 %
41
10 Gt 7 Gt 0 Gt 16 Gt
~85 % 62 % 0% ~85 %
Overview of mitigation strategies in alternative scenarios
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A closer look at energy models Bottom-up and top-down energy models

Energy models can broadly be classified into two categories: bottomup and top-down Traditional bottom-up (or systems engineering) models are designed to consider the energy sector in relatively great detail, they do not include a complete characterization of overall economic activity. Many bottomup models seek to minimize the costs of serving an (often) exogenous energy demand by choosing which technologies to install Top-down models are aggregate models of the whole economy All energy models used in the studies discussed here are (primarily) bottom-up models
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A closer look at energy models Weaknesses and problems of energy models

As bottom-up models only model the energy sector (partial equilibrium) While it can be said that top-down models consider such interdependencies (general equilibrium), they do not have a representative set of technology options A solution could be combining bottom-up and top-down models (hybrid models) Energy models often seem like black boxes to outsiders
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A closer look at energy models Projecting energy demand

Bottom-up, potential-oriented projections of energy efficiency improvements might be too optimistic, as constraints facing dissemination of new technologies are either not considered or are underestimated. These include:
Individual risk-aversion Consumers rejecting new technology due to secondary characteristics like looks (e.g. energy-saving light bulbs) Lack of information on new technologies
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A closer look at energy models Projecting energy demand

On the other hand top-down projections of energy efficiency improvements might be too pessimistic as these are based on observations of past behaviour
New energy policy changes aimed at overcoming existing barriers for the successful dissemination of energy efficient technology are not considered If consumers would expect energy prices to stay high or increase for a long period of time, possible beneficial effects on long-term energy efficiency improvements might be expected Non-price induced changes in attitudes and behaviour also can not be modelled
It is thus questionable if traditional top-down projections of energy demand are appropriate in the case of alternative CO2 mitigation scenarios
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A closer look at energy models Projecting energy supply and modelling energy policy
Projecting technological costs more than four decades into the future is highly uncertain It is also unclear what kind of costs should be considered as various forms of external (non-market) costs arise apart from climate change impacts Specific climate policy measures and instruments needed to achieve alternative scenarios are either not discussed at all or only briefly mentioned in the studies discussed here
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Literature
Nakicenovic, N. et al (2000): Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge IEA - International Energy Agency (2007): World Energy Outlook 2007, OECD and International Energy Agency report, Paris IEA - International Energy Agency (2008): Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Paris Greenpeace and European Renewable Energy Council (2007): energy [r]evolution A Sustainable World Energy Outlook, http://www.energyblueprint .info/fileadmin/media/documents/energy_revolution.pdf EC - European Commission (2006): World Energy Technology Outlook 2050, http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/weto-h2_en.pdf Environmental Foundation Bellona (2008): How to Combat Global Warming, http://www.bellona.org/filearchive/fil_Bellona_CC8_Report_-_Final_version__30_mai.pdf
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Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Main scenario results

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

A closer look at energy models different types and weaknesses

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Energy scenarios definition and classification

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) Introduction

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) Scenario storyline overview

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) Scenarios of different storylines

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Introduction

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Reference scenarios

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Alternative scenarios

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) Energy model used

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) Introduction and baseline scenario

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) Alternative scenarios

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) Variants of alternative scenarios

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) Energy model used

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

energy [r]evolution (Greenpeace/DLR) Introduction

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

energy [r]evolution (Greenpeace/DLR) Scenarios

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

energy [r]evolution (Greenpeace/DLR) Energy model used

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

World Energy Technology Outlook 2050 (EC/Enerdata) Introduction

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

World Energy Technology Outlook 2050 (EC/Enerdata) Scenarios

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

How to Combat Global Warming (Bellona) Introduction

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

How to Combat Global Warming (Bellona) Scenarios

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

How to Combat Global Warming (Bellona) (Energy) model used

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Main scenario results

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

Primary energy in EJ/add

WEO WETO 2007

ETP Bellona 2008

Oil Biomass and waste

Gas Other renewables

Nuclear CO2 emissions

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation

CO2 emissions in Gt/a

Primary energy in EJ/a

Oil Biomass and waste

Gas Other renewables

Nuclear CO2 Emissions

Alternative energy scenarios for CO2 emission simulation