WEDNESDAY,OCTOBER23,2013

ArkansasPoll:VotersExpressRecordLevelsof PessimismAbouttheFuture
ArkansanscontinuetrendtowardRepublicanleaningIndependents
FollowtheUniversityofArkansasonTwitter@uarkansas FAYETTEVILLE,Ark.The15thannualArkansasPoll,conductedduringthefederalshutdown, foundresidentsofthestatedramaticallymorepessimisticaboutthefuturewhilecontinuingthetrend towardidentifyingasRepublicanleaningIndependents.Theeconomycontinuestobeidentifiedasthe mostimportantproblemfacingArkansans.ThepollwasconductedfromOct.1017. WhenaskedaboutlifeinArkansas,only63percentofrespondentsagreedthatArkansasis generallyheadedintherightdirection,10pointslowerthanlastyear.Theonlytimeconfidencelevels havepolledthislowwasin2003,whentheratewasalso63percent. Ahistoricrecordlowof14percentofpeoplereportedbeingbetterofffinanciallyascomparedtoa yearago,downfrom23percentlastyear.Only18percentofrespondentsexpectedtheirfinancial situationtobebetternextyear,thelowestlevelofconfidencesincethisquestionwasfirstaskedin 1999.Anunprecedented24percentofrespondentsexpectfinancestobeworse,upfrom13percent lastyear,andwellabovethemostpessimisticpastresponseof20percentin2010. ItsimpossibletosayforcertainwhathascausedsuchpessimismamongArkansans,polldirector JanineParrysaid.Giventheresreallynothingdramaticallydifferentfromlastyearinthebroader environment,therecentfederalgovernmentshutdownseemsliketheobviousculprit. Whenitcametothefederalshutdown,whichbeganOctober1andendedOct.17,Arkansans blamedthepresidentandhisparty.Afull37percentofrespondentsand39percentoflikelyvoters blamedPresidentObamaandtheDemocratsfortheshutdown.Only26percentofrespondentsand27 percentoflikelyvotersblamedtheRepublicansinCongress.
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WhenrespondentsconsideredtheperformanceoftheirelectedofficialsinWashington,D.C.,all lawmakerssawdropsinapprovalratings.JohnBoozmanreceivedhislowestapprovalratingsyet,34 percentoflikelyvoters,downfrom45percentlastyear.Moreover,hisdisapprovalratingjumpedto29 percentoflikelyvotersfrom18percentlastyear. Only34percentoflikelyvotersapprovedofMarkPryorsperformance,downfrom53percent lastyear.Hisdisapprovalratingswerealsodramaticallyhigher,with44percentoflikelyvoters disapprovingofhisperformance,upfrom21percentlastyear. Incontrast,bothcurrentsenatorsarepollingwellbelowtheArkansasPollnumbersforformerSen. BlancheLincolnduringherlastyearofoffice.Shewasvotedoutofofficein2010.Atherlowestin 2009,43percentapprovedand34percentdisapprovedofherperformance. Onceagain,ArkansansgavelowratingstoPresidentBarackObama,with29percentoflikely votersapprovingand66percentdisapprovingofhisperformance. WhileGov.MikeBeebesapprovalratingdeclinedfrom72percentto68percentoflikelyvoters, anincreaseinhisdisapprovalratingwasnotstatisticallysignificant. The2014electionsweretooclosetocall,althoughlikelyvotersweremorelikelytochoose someonefromtheRepublicanPartyinelectionsfortheU.S.HouseofRepresentativesorstate legislatureforwhichnocandidateswerespecified.Lookingforwardtothe2016presidentialelection, thepollaskedaspeculativequestionthatshowed44percentoflikelyvoterschoosingHillaryClinton overaRepublicannominee,with42percentchoosingtheRepublican. ThepollresultsshowArkansansleaningright.Therewasnosignificantchangeinthepercentageof likelyvoterswhoidentifythemselvesasDemocrats30percentin2012and31percentin2013or liberal12percentin2012and14percentin2013.AslightdeclineinthepercentageofRepublicans 32percentin2012to27percentin2013wasmatchedbyanincreaseinselfidentifiedIndependents 32percentin2012upto36percentin2013.OftheIndependents,51percentoflikelyvoterslean Republicanversus22percentwholeanDemocratic. Parrysaid,ThequestionisdoestherightwardshiftinArkansasvoterssolidifytocontinuebeyond thisparticularpresident,whocontinuestobepeculiarlyunpopularhere,orcantheDemocrats whiteknuckleitto2016andwinbackatleastsomeofthebrandloyaltytheyenjoyedformorethan 100years?OrisRepublicanascendancepermanent? Onceagain,thepollsurveyedArkansansaboutattitudestowardgaycouples.Byandlargeresults weresimilartopreviousyearswithlessthanaquarterofArkansanssupportingmarriageorcivilunions
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forsamesexcouples.WhenitcomestothestatementThereshouldbenolegalrecognitionofagay couplesrelationship,only46percentofArkansansagreed,thefirsttimetheresponsehasdipped below50percent.Thisyearthepollaskedwhethergaysandlesbiansshouldhaveequalrightsinjob opportunities,and81percentoflikelyvotersagreedthattheyshould. Forthefirsttime,thepollaskedArkansansabouttheirsupportforgrantinginstatetuitionto graduatesofArkansashighschoolswhoareinthecountryillegally.Just36percentoflikelyvoters approvedofthatoption,and54percentdisapproved.While59percentofArkansanssupportallowing undocumentedimmigrantstobecomeU.S.citizensiftheymeetcertaincriteria,thatlevelofsupportis notastatisticallysignificantchangefromthe56percentoflastyear. MethodologyandSampleInformation The2013ArkansasPollwasconductedbyIssues&AnswersNetwork.BetweenOct.10and17, interviewerscompleted800livetelephoneinterviewsamongarandomsampleofadultArkansans. Twentypercentofallrespondentswerecellphoneusers. Thesurveysmarginoferrorstatewideisplusorminus3.5percentagepoints,meaningthat researchersare95percentconfidentthattheactualresultlieswithin3.5percentagepointsineither directionoftheresultthepollssampleproduced. Toassesstherepresentativenessofthesampledrawnforthepoll,theArkansasPollteampublishes whatmostpollingorganizationsdonot,acomparisonofsurveyrespondentskeydemographic characteristicstothoseofthestateasawhole.Thisinformationisavailableonthepollwebsite.A summaryreportofthe2013pollresultsanddatafrompastArkansasPollswillbeavailableat8:30a.m. Wednesday,Oct.23,attheArkansasPollwebsite. The2012ArkansasPollwassponsoredbytheDianeD.BlairCenterofSouthernPoliticsand SocietyattheUniversityofArkansas,ToddShields,director.Thepollwasdesignedandanalyzedby Parry,aprofessorinthedepartmentofpoliticalscienceintheJ.WilliamFulbrightCollegeofArtsand SciencesattheUniversityofArkansas.DataisavailablefromcurrentandpastArkansasPolls. 30

CONTACTS: JanineParry,professor,politicalscience J.WilliamFulbrightCollegeofArtsandSciences 4795756439and4794090968(cell),parry@uark.edu BarbaraJaquish,scienceandresearchwriter

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UniversityofArkansas 4795752683,jaquish@uark.edu
MembersofthemediacansubscribetotheArkansasNewswireweekdayemailbysendinganotetoCharlieAlisonat calison@uark.edu.

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