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Energy Conversion and Management: Mao-Fen Li Xiao-Ping Tang Wei Wu Hong-Bin Liu
Energy Conversion and Management: Mao-Fen Li Xiao-Ping Tang Wei Wu Hong-Bin Liu
Energy Conversion and Management: Mao-Fen Li Xiao-Ping Tang Wei Wu Hong-Bin Liu
General models for estimating daily global solar radiation for different
solar radiation zones in mainland China
Mao-Fen Li a, Xiao-Ping Tang b, Wei Wu c, Hong-Bin Liu a,d,
College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716,
China Shapingba Meteorological Bureau, Chongqing 400030, China
College of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China
Chongqing Tobacco Science Institute, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China
a
ARTiCLEiNFO
Article history:
Received 22 November 2012
Accepted 2 March 2013
Available online 2 April 2013
Keywords:
General model
Solar radiation zone
Temperature-based
Sunshine-based kMeans
ABSTRACT
Empirical models, proposed to estimate solar radiation (Rs) in various areas, were site-specific in essence.
However, it is questionable when they are applied to other stations where there is no record of Rs. This
study aimed to develop general models to estimate daily Rs for different solar radiation zones in mainland China. Daily weather data including Rs, sunsh ine duration, relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperatures were collected and analyzed from 83 stations. Two types of simple empirical
equations, namely, temperature- and sunshine-b ased models, were obtained for each site. Five Rs zones
were determined by k-means clustering algorithm based on long-term mean daily Rs. For each zone, the
general model for Rs estimation was developed based on geographical factors (latitude, longitude and
altitude) and site-specific models. Coefficient of residual mass (CRM), mean bias error (MBE), mean percentage error (MPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and percent root mean square error (%RMSE) were
used to investigate the model performance. The comparative results between measure d and estimated
daily Rs showed that the general models had an acceptable accuracy. It is believed that the general models developed in this work can be reliable and applicable for the locations without available Rs data in
mainland China.
2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Solar radiation (Rs), as a vital primary input for crop models
11,2], earth eco-envir onment model 13] and building energy efficiency codes 14], is measured at limited stations worldwide due to
the cost and techniqu es involved. For instance, there are more than
2500 ground meteorological observation stations in mainland China,
but only 98 of them have recorded daily Rs 15,6]. Long term
measured daily global Rs data are not available for most areas in
China, especially in remote rural and mountainou s areas, where
about 80% Chinese inhabited 17]. Hence, methods to estimate Rs for
the locations with no records of solar radiation are of great
significance.
By reviewin g the literature, two types of empirical models,
namely, temperat ure-base and sunshine-ba sed, are used exten-sively
to estimate Rs at present 1825]. All of these models have easily
accessible input parameters (such as temperatures, precipi-tation,
relative humidity , dew point temperature, and sunshine
Corresponding author at: College of Resources and Environment, Southwest
University, Chongqing 400716, China. Tel.: +86 23 6825 1069; fax: +86 23 6825
0444.
E-mail address: lhbin@swu.edu.cn (H.-B. Liu).
0196-8904/$ - see front matter 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2013.03.004
hours), reasonable accuracy (root mean square error ranging between 1.0 and 6.0 MJ m 2 d 1) and convenient applications . However, most of them are in essence site-specific. Also, it is
questionable whether they could be applied to other locations where
there is no record of observed Rs. Besides, some physical-based
models for Rs estimation that can be applied generally are usually
in complex form 119,22].
In China, two zoning were proposed for building designs thermal climate zones (GB50176-93) 126] and solar climate zones 127].
Based on the average temperatures in the coldest and hottest months
of the year, five thermal climate zones called severe cold (SC), cold
(C), hot summer and cold winter (HSCW), mild, and hot summer and
warm winter (HSWW) (GB50176-93) 126] were de-rived. Recently,
Lau et al. 127] proposed solar climate zones in terms of monthly
mean daily clearness index derived from 123 stations. For Rs
estimation at these zones, Lam et al. 128] develope d sun-shine-ba
sed models using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to esti-mate daily
Rs for 40 cities covering nine major thermal climatic zones and subzones. Wan et al. 129] conducted a study of daily Rs estimation for
thermal and solar zones using clearness index and sunshine duration
extracted from 41 stations. They found that the regressio n models
tended to have slightly smaller mean bias error (MBE) and root mean
square error (RMSE) than ANN approaches.
140
Then they concluded that there was little to choose between thermal and solar climate zone models.
However, both aforementione d zoning were based on measured
monthly data rather than daily global Rs data. Different data were
required for identifying different climatic characterist ics with respect to the intended application [29]. Consideri ng the simplification of calculatio n, this study complemented earlier work with the
following objectives : (1) to identify different solar radiation zones
using observed long-term mean daily Rs, (2) to propose and validate site specific daily Rs estimation models based on measured
sunshine hours and temperat ures and relative humidity, respectively, and (3) to develop general models based on the best performed models and site geographical indicators to estimate daily
global Rs for different Rs zones in mainland China.
2. Data and methods
2.1. Data gathering
Daily data, including Rs (MJ m-2 d-1), maximum and minimum
temperature s (Tmax and Tmin, OC), sunshine hours and relative humidity
(Hum, %), were provided by the Chinese National Cli-matic Data
Center (CDC). There are 98 stations measured and re-corded daily
global solar radiation in China [21], while the data of 83 stations
(Fig. 1 and Table 1) in mainland China before 2000 were used in
this study. Data quality control is first conducted by the suppliers.
For the present study, records with missing data indicated by 32,766
were removed from the data set. Missing data were replaced with
means of the nearby points. A month with more than five continuous
missing or faulty data was eliminated.
2.2. Solar radiation zoning
Zoning would give a better understand ing of the distribution of
Rs and an overview of the general solar radiation climatic conditions within a region. There are different ways to classify zones
according to different criteria using different climatic variables
Fig. 1. Distribution of the studied stations in different solar radiation zones in mainland China.
141
Longitude (, E)
Latitude (, N)
Altitude (m)
Data period
127.27
119.45
126.46
88.05
89.34
81.2
87.37
89.12
82.54
75.59
88.1
79.56
93.31
94.41
98.29
103.05
100.08
94.54
101.46
103.53
111.58
108.31
111.41
113.2
106.13
112.33
109.3
114.22
116.04
122.16
125.13
129.28
120.27
123.27
116.17
117.04
118.54
121.38
121.15
116.59
80.05
92.04
91.08
97.01
100.15
97.1
100
104.01
103.2
103.45
100.13
101.43
98.3
102.41
100.48
103.23
105.38
108.56
113.39
106.05
108.21
111.18
114.08
106.28
112.55
106.55
106.43
110.18
114.57
115.4
118.48
117.14
121.29
50.15
49.13
45.45
47.44
44.01
43.57
43.47
42.56
41.48
39.28
39.02
37.08
42.49
40.09
39.46
38.38
37.2
36.25
36.37
36.03
43.39
41.34
40.49
40.06
38.29
37.47
36.36
36.07
43.57
43.36
43.54
42.53
41.33
41.44
39.56
39.05
39.25
38.54
37.3
36.41
32.3
31.29
29.4
33.01
34.28
31.09
31.37
30.4
29.31
27.2
26.52
26.35
25.01
25.01
22
23.23
34.36
34.18
34.43
30.48
30.48
30.42
30.37
29.35
28.13
27.41
26.35
25.19
28.52
32.1
32
31.52
31.24
166.4
610.2
142.3
735.3
793.5
662.5
917.9
34.5
1072.5
1288.7
888.3
1374.6
737.2
1139.0
1477.2
1367.0
3301.5
2807.6
2261.2
1517.2
964.7
1288.0
1063.0
1067.2
1111.4
778.3
958.5
75.5
989.5
178.5
236.8
176.8
169.2
42.8
54.0
2.5
10.5
91.5
32.6
51.6
4278.0
4507.0
3648.7
3681.2
3719.0
3306.0
3393.5
506.1
3047.4
1949.5
2393.2
1190.1
1654.6
1891.4
552.7
1300.7
1368.0
397.5
110.4
297.7
432.7
133.1
23.3
259.1
68.0
849.3
1074.3
194.4
123.8
57.1
8.9
27.9
3.5
19612000
19601968, 19721977, 19822000
19612000
19602000
19871990
19602000
19592000
19612000
19571990
19572000
19572000
19572000
19612000
19572000
19932000
19612000
19932000
19572000
19592000
19592000
19572000
19922000
19591966, 19681968
19612000
19611967, 19732000
19612000
19902000
19611990
19902000
19601992
19591981, 19832000
19602000
19632000
19612000
19572000
19592000
19922000
19632000
19952000
19612000
19712000
19611968, 19722000
19611968, 19712000
19601973, 19782000
19932000
19611968 19702000
19942000
19612000
19612000
19611967, 19691990
19611967, 19691974, 19762000
19922000
19612000
19611967, 19692000
19612000
19612000
19601966
19612000
19612000
19811990
19611967, 19681990
19612000
19612000
19612000
19882000
19611990
19612000
19612000
19612000
19612000
19612000
19612000
19912000
Data No.
14,478
12,077
14,610
14,911
1461
14,941
15,340
14,548
12,235
15,808
15,918
15,920
14,570
15,769
2922
14,608
2922
15,828
15,340
15,221
15,917
3288
2585
14,609
12,625
14,610
4018
10,956
3987
9799
14,945
14,915
13,759
14,607
15,951
15,339
3288
12,386
2160
14,605
10,499
13,025
13,573
12,871
2922
14,183
2557
14,610
14,578
10,401
13,330
3288
14,577
13,848
14,394
14,609
2280
14,601
14,606
3652
10,743
14,546
14,578
14,426
4749
10,954
14,608
14,457
14,244
14,518
14,610
13,929
3653
Solar climate
zone [27]
Thermal climate
zone [26]
II
II
III
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
I
I
II
II
I
I
II
III
I
II
II
II
II
III
III
III
II
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
I
II
I
II
II
II
II
V
III
III
II
III
III
III
III
III
III
IV
III
V
V
IV
IV
V
IV
V
V
IV
IV
III
IV
IV
IV
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Mild
SC
Cold
Cold
Cold
SC
Cold
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Cold
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Cold
Cold
Cold
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Cold
Cold
Cold
Cold
Cold
Cold
SC
Cold
Cold
Cold
SC
SC
Cold
HSCW
HSCW
Mild
Mild
Mild
Mild
Mild
Mild
Mild
Cold
Cold
Cold
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
Mild
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
(continued on next page )
142
Table 1 (continued)
Station
Longitude (, E)
Latitude (, N)
Shanghai
Hangzhou
Cixi
Lushan
Nanchang
Fuzhou
Shaoguan
Guangzhou
Shantou
Nanning
121.26
120.1
121.1
115.59
115.55
119.17
113.36
113.19
116.41
108.21
31.1
30.14
30.16
29.35
28.36
26.05
24.48
23.08
23.24
22.49
Altitude (m)
4.5
41.7
7.1
1243.3
46.7
84.0
68.7
6.6
1.1
73.1
Data period
19611990
19612000
19611990
19611990
19612000
19612000
19611990
19612000
19612000
19612000
Table 2
Models proposed in this study.
Model No.
1
2
3
4
5a
6
Data No.
10,957
14,610
10,773
10,957
14,543
14,579
10,957
14,549
14,606
14,580
RMSE1/4
a, b, c and m were coefficients. n was the daily actual sunshine duration (h), N was
the daily maximum possible sunshine duration (h). R0 was daily extraterrestrial
The data set were randomly divided into a calibrate d dataset (in
this study, 67% of the whole data) and a validation data set (33% of
the whole data). The calibrated set was used to develop Rs estimating models and the validation set was used to evaluate the models.
The general model for each zone was then developed using the
coefficients of the best performed models and the site geographical
indicators (altitude, latitude, and longitude). Correlations were
built between the coefficients of best performed model and the
correspondi ng site geographical indicators, because some
researchers found that coefficients of estimating models varying
with latitude and ngsrm coefficients strongly correlate d to latitude (or elevation) [34].
Thermal climate
zone [26]
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSWW
HSWW
HSWW
HSWW
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Pni1/41Oi ~ Ei2
1
Models
Rs =( a ~ T max+ b ~ T min+ c ~ Hum ) ~ R 0+ m
Rs =( a ~ T max+ b ~ T min) ~ R 0+ c ~ Hum )+ m
pfiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Rs 1/4 a ~ T max ~ T min b ~ Hum ~ R0 m
pfiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Rs 1/4 a ~ T max ~ T min ~ R0 b ~ Hum m
Rs/R0 = a ~ n/N + m
Rs = a ~ n + b ~ R 0 + m
Solar climate
zone [27]
1 n
MBE1/4
Oi ~ EiX
n i1/41
Pni1/41Oi~ Pni1/41Ei
CRM 1/4
Pn
i1/41Oi
Oi
3
4
1 n
MPE1/4 X Ei ~ Oi
n i1/41
143
Station
No.
Average Rs
(MJ m2 d1)
1
2
8
21
15.022
17.406
7
19
9.782
12.362
28
14.246
3
4
5
Fig. 2. Comparison of daily global Rs of observed, best modeled and general modeled at representative stations of each zone.
144
Table 4
Performance of the proposed solar radiation estimation models for mainland China.
Zone
Site
M2
M3
RMSE(MJm-2d-1)
0.65
-0.2
0.41
-0.77
0.68
1.34
0.23
0.26
0.33
4.19
-0.9
-1.26
-2.55
0.97
-1.17
0.11
-0.47
-0.14
0.86
0.31
0.47
-1.38
0.82
0.06
0.73
0.59
0.31
4.56
3.88
3.23
3.46
3.51
3.66
4.61
3.73
3.83
4.68
3.98
3.27
3.5
3.87
3.91
4.41
3.8
3.93
4.68
3.89
3.3
3.5
3.84
4.03
5.06
3.76
4.01
4.91
4.02
3.38
3.57
3.92
4.03
4.53
3.79
4.02
3.39
2.94
2.26
1.7
2.88
3.02
2.8
2.68
2.71
3.50
3.02
2.29
1.78
2.90
3.02
2.84
2.64
2.75
6.11
4.01
3.57
4.19
3.67
3.88
4.69
3.79
4.24
3.46
3
2.29
2.09
2.91
2.69
2.83
2.78
2.76
0.07
-0.01
0.02
-0.07
0.04
0.01
-0.06
0.01
0
0.13
0.03 -0.01
-1.04
-1.21
0.1 -0.67
-0.25 -0.31
1.15 0.37
-1.17 -1.3
1.68 -0.32
-1.20 -0.48
0.06 -0.56
-0.66 -0.86
-0.68 -0.41
-0.51 -0.09
2.87 1.68
-0.75 -0.63
-1.67 -1.73
-0.03 -0.55
-0.8 -0.27
-1.51 -1.73
-0.38 0
-0.27 -0.48
0.33
0.0 9
-0.94
-1.10
-0.60
-0.49
0.3
-1.34
-0.29
-0.42
-0.32
-0.8
-0.45
0.0 3
1.87
-0.48
-1.67
-0.31
-0.29
-1.63
0
-0.41
-0.16
-0.87
1.86
0.51
0.1
1.27
0.54
-0.18
-0.72
-0.11
1.09
-1.17
0.85
-0.27
-0.32
-0.74
0.73
-1.98
-1.08
-0.48
0.23
-1.73
0.40
-0.06
3.72
3.37
3.34
3.58
3.50
3.38
4.26
3.88
5.10
4.19
4.69
3.98
4.24
4.02
6.69
6.25
4.26
5.22
3.97
4.35
3.23
4.25
3.71
3.37
3.35
3.43
3.49
3.37
4.23
3.88
5.10
4.21
4.36
3.94
4.19
3.99
6.67
6.18
4.23
5.12
3.86
4.32
3.23
4.20
3.7
3.45
3.35
3.21
3.39
3.32
4.11
3.86
4.03
4.01
6.01
3.77
4
3.85
6.37
6.41
4.14
5.64
3.72
4.34
3.06
4.18
3.79
3.46
3.46
3.28
3.43
3.41
4.16
4.02
4.19
4.11
5.26
3.76
4.02
3.93
6.31
6.31
4.15
5.44
3.72
4.38
3.11
4.18
2.21
2.22
2.13
3.49
1.99
1.53
2.28
2.58
1.71
2.31
2.23
1.85
2.46
1.85
5.22
5.36
3.53
2.60
1.78
3.65
1.64
2.60
2.42
2.36
2.22
3.45
2.12
1.72
2.07
2.54
1.85
2.53
2.30
2.03
2.57
2.12
5.42
5.30
3.47
2.58
1.93
3.55
1.77
2.68
3.61
3.57
3.53
3.23
3.46
3.53
3.98
4.04
4.01
4.22
5.84
3.77
3.89
3.96
6.13
6.68
3.94
5.72
3.65
5.19
3.17
4.24
3.06
2.38
2.01
2.38
2.10
1.59
2.17
2.1
2.03
2.56
2.29
1.66
2.49
2.08
4.97
5.79
3.39
2.58
1.89
3.64
1.97
2.63
0
0
-0.06
0
-0.02
0.08
-0.08
0.17
-0.08
-0.03
-0.05
-0.03
-0.04
0.14
-0.09
-0.10
-0.03
-0.07
-0.11
-0.04
-0.02
0
0
-0.05
0.01
-0.01
0.07
-0.08
0.16
-0.09
-0.02
-0.05
-0.04
-0.04
0.14
-0.08
-0.10
-0.02
-0.07
-0.1
-0.04
-0.02
0.01
0
-0.04
0.01
-0.01
0.07
-0.07
0.11
-0.08
0
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
0.13
-0.05
-0.09
-0.01
-0.05
-0.1
-0.02
-0.02
0
0
-0.04
0.01
-0.02
0.07
-0.07
0.10
-0.08
0
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
0.13
-0.05
-0.09
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.02
-0.02
3.34
3.51
3.49
6.64
2.98
3.11
3.62
3.81
3.37
3.54
3.63
5.93
3.04
3.14
3.60
3.75
3.35
3.53
3.58
6.9
3.13
3.16
3.86
3.93
3.57
3.74
3.92
6.06
3.26
3.43
3.76
3.96
2.41
2.60
2.48
2.78
2.53
2.84
3.21
2.69
2.49
2.63
2.51
2.94
2.5
2.82
3.21
2.73
3.56
3.53
3.73
5.97
3.09
3.21
3.61
3.81
2.37 -0.16
2.6 -0.06
2.53 -0.08
2.8 -0.08
2.48 0
2.75 -0.09
3.21 0.01
2.68 -0.07
-0.16
-0.03
-0.07
-0.08
-0.15
-0.04
-0.07
-0.07
-0.16 -0.08
-0.01 -0.02
-0.08 0
-0.08 0
3.70
3.05
2.90
2.95
2.26
2.85
2.2
2.67
2.78
2.3
2.89
2.91
3.65
3.29
3.50
3.29
2.68
2.27
3.28
2.92
-0.47
Kuqa
Ruoqiang
Hetian
Kumul
Dunhuang
Jiuquan
Minqin
Gangcha
Golmud
Xining
Erenhot
Haliut
Hohhot
Yinchuan
Gar
Nakchu
Lhasa
Yushu
Golok
Chamdo
Ganzi
Mean
Chengdu
Nanchong
Wanhsien
Yichang
Chongqing
Zunyi
Guiyang
Mean
-1.33
-0.56
-0.7
-0.84
Xian
Wuha n
Changsha
Guilin
Ganzhou
Gushi
Nanjing
Hefei
Baoshan
Shanghai
Hangzhou
Cixi
Lushan
Nanchang
Fuzhou
Shaoguan
Guangzhou
Shantou
Nanning
Mean
-0.67
-1.43
-0.19
-1.04
-0.16
-1.36
-0.89
-1.03
-0.37
-1.07
-0.48
-1.18
-2.17
-1.12
-0.63
-2.26
-1.76
-1.35
-0.13
Heihe
Hailaer
Harbin
Altai
Qitai
Yining
Urumchi
Turpan
Kash
Lanzhou
Datong
0.0 2 0
-0.73 -0.84
0.0 9 -0.02
-0.58 -0.57
-0.05
-0.74
-1.26 -1.40
-0.34 -0.07
-0.63
-0.7
-0.69
-0.8
0.05 -0.02
-0.73 -0.97
0.12 -0.01
-0.5 -0.57
0.20
-0.98
-0.23
-1.74
-0.98
-1.35
-0.11
-1.45
-0.6
-1.12
-2.08
-1.04
-0.59
-2.15
-1.82
-1.16
-0.06
-1.02 -1.02
0.53 0.42
-0.53 -0.33
-1.52 -1.82
0.21 0.15
-0.52 -0.57
-0.43 -0.38
-1.3 -1.38
-1
-0.95
-1.46 -1.49
0.23
-0.7
-0.05
-0.74
-0.69
-0.45
0.28
-0.84
-0.29
-1.02
-2.07
-0.89
-0.4
-1.82
-1.3
-0.51
0.44
-0.66
0.62
-0.36
-1.54
0.11
-0.53
-0.31
-1.17
-0.95
-1.41
0.36
-0.88
-0.18
-1.36
-0.85
-1.07
0.27
-1.21
-0.48
-1.1
-2.09
-0.92
-0.46
-2.01
-1.61
-0.86
0.18
-0.87
0.49
-0.38
-1.66
0.03
-0.67
-0.42
-1.31
-1.03
-1.43
0.37
-0.55
-0.51
-0.70
-0.65
0.77
1
-1.43
-0.06
-0.31
-0.04
0.18
2.45
-1.76
1.02
-1.28
-0.41
-3.17
0.37
-0.27
1.19
-1.02
0.43
-0.58
0.0 4
-0.35
-0.58
0.16
0.54
-0.37
0.57
-0.49
-1
-0.67
0.73
-1.76
-0.14
0.1
1.10
-0.11
-1.09 1.15
-0.76 -1.15
0.62
-1.65
-1.08
-0.38
-1.43
-2.02
-0.20
-1.09
-2.15
-0.34
-1.47
-0.29
-3.26
-3.47
-2.66
1.09
0.72
-1.1
4.01 3.8
0.10 4.02 3.89
0.37 4.46 4.24
-0.77
4.15 4.03
-1.52
3.77 3.88
-0.75
4.11 4.01
-0.85
4.69 4.38
-0.03
5.06 4.93
-0.99
4.05 4.08
-1.11 4.3 4.28
-0.46
4.37 4.3
3.69 3.68
3.67 3.66
4.21 4.12
3.89 3.93
3.58 3.7
3.84 3.88
4.24 4.17
4.64 4.54
4
4.11
4.26 4.4
4.09 4.09
2.01
2.15
2.83
2.24
2.48
2.37
2.14
1.89
2.87
2.09
2.44
2.47
2.32
3.18
2.40
2.73
2.5
2.47
2.15
3.01
2.48
2.67
3.70
3.61
4.05
4.09
3.60
3.92
4.22
5.19
4.02
4.55
4.14
M2
M3
M4
M5
0.08
0.01
0.01
-0.07
0.08
0.03
-0.07
0.01
0.01
0.09
0.02
0.01
-0.06
0.07
0.05
-0.02
0.01
0.02
0.08
0.01
0.01
-0.06
0.06
0.03
-0.07
0.01
0.01
0.0 4
-0.01
0.0 3
-0.05
0.0 5
0.0 9
0.0 1
0.0 2
0.0 2
0.05
-0.02
0.02
-0.05
0.05
0.09
0.02
0.02
0.02
0
-0.07
-0.08
-0.17
0.06
-0.08
0.01
-0.03
-0.05
0.07
0.02
0.03
-0.09
0.05
0
0.05
0.04
0.02
0.0 1
0
-0.07
-0.07
-0.04
-0.02
0.0 2
-0.08
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.05
-0.02
-0.01
0.0 8
-0.04
-0.09
-0.03
-0.02
-0.11
0
-0.03
0.02
0.01
-0.06
-0.07
-0.03
-0.03
0.02
-0.08
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
-0.05
-0.03
0
0.09
-0.03
-0.09
-0.02
-0.02
-0.11
0
-0.03
-0.01
-0.05
0.12
0.03
0.01
0.08
0.03
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.06
-0.08
0.05
-0.02
-0.02
-0.05
0.03
-0.12
-0.06
-0.13
-0.02
-0.10
-0.01
-0.11
-0.08
-0.09
-0.03
-0.09
-0.04
-0.1
-0.19
-0.1
-0.05
-0.21
-0.16
-0.1
-0.01
%RMSE
M2
M3
M4
M3
M4
M5
0.34
0.23
0.44
0.05
0.29
0.11
0.25
0.3
0.25
0.32
0.23
0.47
0.06
0.29
0.09
0.26
0.29
0.25
0.3
0.19
0.35
0.0 6
0.27
0.0 9
0.23
0.3
0.22
0.29
0.26
0.42
0.07
0.29
0.12
0.27
0.28
0.25
0.17
0.62
0
0.14
0.07
0.08
0.05
0.06
0.15
0.18
0.68
0.01
0.16
0.07
0.09
0.06
0.07
0.17
0.41
0.63
0.14
0.44
0.25
0.73
0.27
0.25
0.39
0.26
0.63
-0.01
0.2
0.07
0.25
0.03
0.04
0.18
36.02
27.9
19.29
22.88
23.08
24.69
30.4
24.58
26.11
36.95
28.65
19.47
23.19
25.46
26.38
29.11
25.04
26.78
36.93
28.01
19.67
23.19
25.26
27.21
33.4
24.79
27.31
38.78
28.92
20.18
23.66
25.75
27.2
29.89
24.98
27.42
26.77
21.14
13.47
11.24
18.95
20.38
18.46
17.65
18.51
27.66
21.73
13.66
11.8
19.06
20.41
18.74
17.41
18.81
48.22
28.84
21.27
27.75
24.13
26.21
30.93
25.02
29.05
27.28
21.58
13.66
13.81
19.1
18.13
18.67
18.32
18.82
0.16
0.21
0.25
0.09
0.13
0.18
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.03
-0.04
0.39
0.24
0.18
0.46
0.55
-0.04
0.16
0.18
0.13
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.21
0.26
0.09
0.12
0.16
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.3
-0.05
0.4
0.2
0.16
0.46
0.58
-0.04
0.16
0.17
0.13
0.21
0.19
0.15
0.2
0.24
0.0 8
0.12
0.14
0.0 8
0.0 8
0.0 7
0.28
0.0 3
0.36
0.28
0.15
0.48
0.55
-0.04
0.14
0.18
0.1
0.2
0.18
0.17
0.21
0.25
0.09
0.13
0.15
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.31
0.02
0.39
0.19
0.14
0.5
0.59
-0.04
0.14
0.16
0.1
0.2
0.19
0
0.02
0.38
0.19
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.19
0.04
0.14
0.07
0.08
0.22
0.18
0.01
0.17
0.12
0.06
0.03
0.17
0.01
0.11
0.03
0.03
0.39
0.19
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.18
0.04
0.15
0.08
0.09
0.21
0.19
0
0.17
0.12
0.06
0.03
0.17
0.02
0.11
0.13
0.13
0.17
0.13
0.12
0.14
0.21
0.17
0.05
0.44
0.12
0.12
0.45
0.39
0.07
0.35
-0.01
0.23
0.08
0.33
0.03
0.18
0.01
0.07
0.12
0.03
0.07
0.09
0.14
0.16
-0.01
0.25
0.05
0.08
0.28
0.3
0.11
0.24
0.05
0.03
-0.01
0.13
-0.06
0.1
24.17
19.86
20.77
21.35
19.94
20.1
25.16
22.33
26.55
27.43
27.65
24.41
25.23
24.82
30.48
38.92
22.21
31.48
23.25
28.03
18.3
24.88
24.1
19.86
20.83
20.49
19.84
19.99
24.97
22.33
26.55
27.57
25.73
24.15
24.97
24.64
30.38
38.46
22.06
30.88
22.6
27.83
18.3
24.6
24.02
20.31
20.87
19.2
19.29
19.71
24.26
22.24
20.99
26.27
35.48
23.11
23.84
23.81
29.02
39.91
21.62
33.99
21.77
27.93
17.36
24.52
24.61
20.38
21.53
19.56
19.52
20.27
24.58
23.15
21.79
26.93
31.05
23.08
23.93
24.28
28.74
39.3
21.65
32.84
21.81
28.19
17.62
24.51
14.36
13.08
13.25
20.83
11.35
9.09
13.47
14.83
8.9
15.16
13.14
11.32
14.67
11.46
23.75
33.35
18.41
15.71
10.43
23.5
9.3
15.21
15.68
13.91
13.82
20.6
12.09
10.23
12.21
14.62
9.62
16.61
13.58
12.44
15.32
13.08
24.7
33
18.13
15.54
11.29
22.85
10.03
15.68
23.42
21.07
21.98
19.27
19.71
20.96
23.48
23.25
20.85
27.67
34.46
23.13
23.16
24.47
27.89
41.55
20.56
34.48
21.37
33.39
17.94
24.96
19.84
14.05
12.5
14.19
11.97
9.42
12.83
12.07
10.58
16.8
13.5
10.19
14.85
12.87
22.61
36.02
17.67
15.58
11.07
23.46
11.16
15.39
0.09
0.61
0.62
0.69
0
0.01 0
0.0 5
0.85
-0.1 -0.09 -0.11 -0.1
0.49
0
0.01 0
0.0 8 0.08 0.01 0.08 0.34
-0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.01 -0.01 -0.07 -0.01 0.53
0.09
0.63
0.49
0.72
0.61
0.26
0.15
0.42
0.0 7
0.48
0.49
0.4
0.67
0.2
0.21
0.36
0.07
0.57
0.42
0.75
0.75
0.09
0.09
0.39
0.62
0.57
0.61
0.69
0.66
0.85
0.4
0.63
0.68
0.64
0.71
0.77
0.75
0.88
0.41
0.69
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.9
0.76
0.63
0.48
0.71
0.8
0.69
0.79
0.68
0.81
0.77
0.41
0.71
38.86
38.44
37.36
63.82
35.12
36.63
37.12
41.05
39.25
38.77
38.86
56.98
35.77
36.96
36.95
40.51
39
38.7
38.35
66.33
36.84
37.15
39.62
42.28
41.58
40.98
41.98
58.24
38.39
40.35
38.58
42.87
28.06
28.48
26.59
26.72
29.8
33.39
32.96
29.43
29
28.87
26.93
28.26
29.47
33.15
32.91
29.8
41.48
38.74
39.97
57.41
36.38
37.73
37.08
41.26
27.63
28.45
27.16
26.95
29.22
32.32
32.95
29.24
0.5
0.42
0.68
0.77
0.44
0.35
0.97
0.75
0.88
0.77
0.5
0.54
0.84
0.78
0.74
0.25
0.61
0.68
0.33
0.62
0.49
0.4
0.69
0.77
0.38
0.23
0.7
0.67
0.85
0.56
0.49
0.63
0.66
0.79
0.75
0.2
0.71
0.5
0.35
0.57
0.31
0.38
0.6
0.68
0.39
0.24
1.11
0.69
0.7
0.69
0.54
0.41
0.72
0.83
0.64
0.22
0.82
0.65
0.32
0.58
0.38
0.37
0.68
0.72
0.35
0.15
0.82
0.65
0.98
0.55
0.54
0.57
0.64
0.82
0.66
0.18
0.78
0.47
0.35
0.56
0.39
0.64
0.36
0.63
0.32
0.25
0.47
0.61
0.38
0.34
0.39
0.65
0.63
0.65
0.16
0.63
0.42
0.16
0.39
0.45
0.51
0.73
0.45
0.67
0.34
0.37
0.57
0.8
0.48
0.39
0.51
0.76
0.68
0.7
0.21
0.68
0.43
0.16
0.41
0.52
0.88
0.91
0.45
0.83
0.52
0.91
0.84
0.94
0.87
0.91
0.85
0.9
0.91
0.93
0.73
0.85
0.92
0.86
0.49
0.82
0.32
0.76
0.45
0.75
0.31
0.31
0.6
0.72
0.27
0.37
0.49
0.77
0.77
0.81
0.2
0.8
0.45
0.11
0.43
0.51
31.44
37.48
32.7
37.68
28.51
53.78
32.26
55.91
41.08
35.48
36
40.88
50.51
37.77
34.64
40.47
50.62
28.66
28.8
38.67
31.49
38.65
33.75
37.99
28.34
48.46
31.58
47.73
37.68
34.57
35.23
38.42
50.85
37.93
35
40.24
46.9
29.31
29.42
37.55
31.59
39.51
37.52
38.49
31.12
59.66
33.24
62.84
41.69
36.16
36.52
39.38
54.58
39.71
36.82
41.1
50.84
30.7
32.57
40.74
32.62
40.22
36.28
39.02
29.79
54.97
32.61
53.16
38.9
35.42
36.15
38.35
52.95
39.26
36.67
41.2
46.59
30.74
31.46
39.28
30.55
27.53
27.43
27.76
18.59
23.72
18.87
23.01
21.99
19.46
25.62
24.64
31.29
29.13
30.15
32.83
24.06
15.99
26.14
25.2
32.22
28.31
27.92
27.97
19.39
24.71
20.16
24.15
22.54
20.36
26.99
25.17
31.8
30.15
30.32
33.39
24.4
16.64
26.64
25.96
35
37.44
34.45
39.86
29.54
56.88
32.72
62.31
38.03
33.79
39.86
37.36
48.89
37.14
44.55
47.37
56.28
29.73
30.62
40.62
31.75
27.82
27.06
28.01
18.63
23.09
18.57
23.07
23.13
19.12
25.07
24.48
31.12
28.61
29.83
31.03
24.71
16.45
26.3
25.15
0.03
0.56
0.27
0.25
0.36
0.41
0.13
0.66
0.30
0.57
0.53
0.21
0.54
0.25
0.24
0.3
0.39
0.13
0.53
0.24
0.57
0.51
0.28
0.44
0.24
0.21
0.33
0.38
0.12
0.55
0.24
0.55
0.5
0.28
0.51
0.23
0.21
0.32
0.36
0.12
0.52
0.22
0.6
0.5
0.18
0.05
-0.06
0.09
0.07
0.06
0.11
0.03
0.12
0.28
0.21
0.24
0.12
0.01
0.16
0.16
0.09
0.23
0.09
0.15
0.3
0.25
0.63
0.35
0.37
0.84
0.86
0.64
0.89
0.35
0.22
0.75
0.49
0.16
-0.02
-0.06
0.1
0.2
0.26
0.12
0
0.11
0.41
0.11
33.05
29.97
33.97
28.05
29.54
27.19
34.44
33.69
26.87
30.92
30.33
31.28
28.99
32.31
27.28
30.39
26.56
32.11
32.81
27.09
30.76
29.86
30.44
27.35
32.1
26.33
28.06
25.4
31.1
30.9
26.54
30.56
28.42
30.35
27.31
31.35
26.58
28.99
25.69
30.58
30.21
27.26
31.61
28.4
16.6
16.05
21.54
15.18
19.41
15.67
15.67
12.57
19.02
15.01
16.92
20.37
17.29
24.24
16.25
21.4
16.54
18.11
14.28
19.99
17.83
18.51
30.51
26.94
30.85
27.64
28.17
25.92
30.96
34.52
26.69
32.7
28.78
16.09
14.58
21.11
14.8
19.31
15.5
16.93
11.91
19.45
16.71
14.72
0.02
-0.09
-0.02
-0.14
-0.08
-0.12
-0.01
-0.12
-0.05
-0.10
-0.18
-0.09
-0.05
-0.20
-0.17
-0.08
0
-0.09 -0.09
0.02
-0.07
0
-0.06
-0.06
-0.04
0.02
-0.07
-0.03
-0.09
-0.18
-0.08
-0.03
-0.17
-0.12
-0.04
0.04
-0.06
0.03
-0.08
-0.01
-0.11
-0.07
-0.09
0.02
-0.1
-0.04
-0.09
-0.18
-0.08
-0.04
-0.19
-0.15
-0.06
0.02
-0.07
M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1
0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.04
-0.04
0.04
0.02
-0.09
0.04
-0.02
0
0.01
0.11
-0.11
0.05
-0.08
-0.02
-0.20
0.02
-0.02
-0.06
-0.03
0.01
-0.11
0.02
-0.01
0.0 5
-0.06
-0.01
-0.03
-0.05
0.0 1
0.0 4
-0.03
0.0 5
-0.04
-0.09
-0.06
0.0 6
-0.17
-0.02
0
0.0 9
-0.01
0.04
-0.06
0
-0.03
-0.05
0.01
0.05
-0.03
0.05
-0.04
-0.09
-0.06
0.06
-0.17
-0.01
0.01
0.09
-0.01
0.06
-0.16
-0.09
-0.03
-0.12
-0.18
-0.02
-0.09
-0.19
-0.03
-0.13
-0.03
-0.28
-0.33
-0.25
1.06
0.06
-0.05
0.02
-0.07
0.01
0.01
-0.05
-0.03
0.09
-0.01
-0.01
-0.06
-0.09
-0.03
0.05
-0.13
-0.05
0.02
0.09
-0.01
-0.03
-0.05
-0.04 -0.06
-0.02 0.03
0.07 -0.01
-0.04 0.02
-0.11 -0.11
-0.05 -0.01
0
-0.02
-0.03 -0.15
-0.07 -0.06
-0.03 -0.11
-0.07 -0.11
-0.04
0.0 5
-0.06
-0.12
-0.06
0
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.08
0.01
0.03
-0.05
-0.12
-0.05
-0.06
0
-0.07
-0.08
-0.03
M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2
M6 GM(T) GM(S)
0.5
-0.14
0.41
-0.72
0.69
1.35
0.18
0.31
0.32
Emeishan
Chaotung
Lijiang
Panzhihua
Tengchong
Kunming
Jinghong
Mengzi
Mean
M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1
MPE
M5
M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2
CRM
M4
enkiY
.284516739
-0
0
0.120.43
4
8
7
3
2
5
6
1
.9
0
haoyng
C
0.8
0.8
1.07280.5396827
0.675-8312
9
5
3
6
7
4
1
-2
.8
0
Shenyang -0.86 -0.77 -0.69 -0.65 -0.33 -0.24 -0.69 -0.03 4.34 4.1 4.12 4.01 2.42 2.65 3.99 2.35 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 -0.02 -0.05 0
0.58 0.54 0.51 0.51 0.11 0.18 0.80.24 33.55 31.68 31.85 31.02 18.73 20.5
30.85 18.17
Beijing
-1.69 -1.6 -1.27 -1.45 -1.07 -0.99 -1.02 -0.31 4.02 3.9 3.79 3.83 2.15 2.39 3.67 1.85 -0.13 -0.12 -0.1 -0.11 -0.08 -0.07 -0.08 -0.02 0.63 0.57 0.54 0.54 0.23 0.32 0.84 0.19 29.98 29.07 28.3 28.6 16.02 17.87 27.41 13.84
ianjT
36857
0.1924
-0.12
2
5
9
7
8
3
1
6
.4
0
etingL
.362917845
-0
0.265314
0.4
7
3
8
9
4
5
6
2
.1
0
0
Dalian
0.65
0.68
1.05
1.04 1.4
1.24 3.61 0.23 5.26 4.96 5.3
5.14 3.56 3.51 6.41 3.13
0.0 5 0.05
0.07 0.07
0.1 0.09 0.25
0.02 0.30
0.22 0.24
0.2-0.09
0.36
0.08 36.56 34.42 36.77 35.72 24.69 24.37 44.48 21.7
anti
Y
.5738
-0
0.8
0.1
1.36
0.347586192
1.73
.423
-0
0.1
0.1
0.9
0 0.45
0.32
0.39
0.32 0
0.9
0.39
9
5
4
8
2
3
6
.1
0
Jinan
-0.83-0.86-0.7-0.8
0.190.22-0.77-0.533.983.933.923.932.422.593.962.29-0.07-0.07-0.06-0.060.020.02-0.06-0.040.610.530.520.490.150.260.81
0.3531.230.8430.7230.8118.9720.3131.0517.99
T
i
a
n
s
h
u
i
0
.
8
0
.
8
4
0
.
7
6
0
.
9
1
0.546712
6
5
1
7
4
9
2
8
.3
0
0.05 0.03 0.04 0.02 -0.03 -0.01 0.04 00.36 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.08 0.14 0.7
0
.
5
5
0
.
4
2
1
0
2
3.56
0.32-179
0.02 4.51 4.41 4.31 4.33 2.38 2.57 4.33 2.34
0
0
9
3
0
2
1
3
0
3
2
1
7
1
3
3
1
1
7
ongliaT
0.3514
Changchun 0.63 0.46 0.5
2
0
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
5
2
9
8
3
0
3
1
2
3
6
2
3
0
.
.
2
2
2
2
0
0
.
.
.
.
.
.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.
.
.
.
0
0
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
3
0
6
2
7
8
1
.
.
.
.
.
2
3
7
6
1
0
3
5
4
4
5
4
6
1
5
2
Models614
9
0
1
0
2
2
4
4
2
0
2
4
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.
5 temperature based whereas models 5 and 6 were sunshine
hours based. GM(T) represented general model based0 on temperatures; GM(S) represented general model based on sunshine hours.
were
3
0
5
5
3
l
h
0
2
i
n
t
.
.
145
7
9
5
8
4
3
2
6
.1
0
3
4
5
9
6
8
7
1
.2
0
0.229.0829.0528.4129.0220.5722.0230.8820.86
2.6-01-7543
.315
-0
2.0483-1
.892157436
-0
iyaunT
an
Y
Anyang
X
i
o
0
8
0
6
1.52-43
0.39812567-0.21-0.34-0.25-0.360.350.39-1.39-0.173.663.663.583.662.592.773.892.63-0.02-0.03-0.02-0.030.030.03-0.11-0.010.570.570.510.530.180.260.86
E
S
M
R
%
E
P
M
M
R
C
-2
d1)
(Jm
E
S
M
R
-2
d1)
(Jm
E
B
M
it
oneS
Z
Table 4 (continued)
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S)
146
(zone 1). Similar to temperat ure-based models, the studied sunshine-based models underestimate d daily Rs in zone 1 whereas
overestimat ed Rs in zones 25.
In terms of RMSE, model 5 (ngstrmPrescott model) performed better than model 6 in all the five zones. Based on %RMSE,
models of sunshine based were classified as good (model 5) and
fair (model 6). And there were about 75 stations showed fair performances and over half of the studied stations displayed good performances. So it could be reasonable to develop sunshine-ba sed
general model from model 5. The comparison between measured
and estimated daily Rs from best site-specific model (sunshine
based) at representat ive stations of five Rs zones was also shown in
Fig. 2.
3.3. General models for different solar radiation zones
3.3.1. General models based on temperatures
Models performed well at individual stations according to the
statistic indicators (Table 4). But these models were site-spec ific
in nature. It was questionable when the site-depend ent models
were applied to locations with different Rs conditions [37]. So
developing a general model for each Rs zone would make a
signif-icant sense.
In the present work, a general model for each zone was obtained using geographical factors (latitude, longitude and elevation
of the stations) and the proposed equation which performed best at
the correspondi ng zone. According to RMSE, MBE, %RMSE and
MPE, the proposed model 1 was used to develop the general model
for zone 1, model 4 for zones 2 and 5, and model 2 for zones 3 and
4. The coefficients of the general models were shown in Table 5.
The performance of the general models based on temperature s for
each zone was given in Table 4.
Obviously, for the present solar radiation zone, estimated error from
general model (based on temperature s) of zone 2 got lowest errors with
mean CRM of -0.02, mean MPE of 0.18 and mean RMSE of 4.24 MJ
m-2 d-1. Whereas general model of zone 3 yielded high-est errors with
mean CRM of -0.07, mean MPE of 0.71, mean %RMSE of 41.26%,
and mean RMSE of 3.81 MJ m-2 d-1.
It was not surprising that the general models, which developed to
cater for all the stations within the correspond ing solar radiation
zones, had higher values of mean RMSE than the best performed
model at individua l station (Table 4). This was consisten t with the
finding reported by Lam et al. [28]. In terms of RMSE, the dif-
Table 5
General model and its coefficients based on temperatures for each Rs zone.
Zone
Best model
Coefficient
147
Table 6
General model and its coefficients based on sunshine hours for each Rs zone.
Zone
Best model
Coefficient
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