The PICK

NFL Week 8 Outlook

by Smitty
Week 8 of the NFL season could easily be dubbed blowout weekend. There are a number of mismatches this weekend featuring teams above .500 vs. teams below .500. Some of these mismatches include the Bills @ Saints, the Broncos @ Redskins, the Packers @ Vikings, the Browns @ Chiefs, the 49ers @ Jaguars, and the Seahawks @ Rams. It is a good bet that the team with the better record in these six games will win by 10 points or more. The slaughtering began Thursday night when the Carolina Panthers beat up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Panthers and their dominant front seven are starting to make a case for a playoff spot. They still have to face NFC South division leader New Orleans twice this year, and I think they have a great chance to knock off the Saints at least once. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are making a case for the worst team in the league. Its become so bad for the 0-7 Bucs that a local radio station purchased billboard space reading Fire Schiano. Word is that embattled coach Greg Schiano has lost control of his team. If this is indeed the case, then what is the Glazer family waiting for? Perhaps they are trying to best their 0-14 season in 1976 by going 0-16 this year. All I can say is that the Bucs have taken over the title of worst NFL team from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now lets take a look at the Sunday and Monday matchups in the NFL this week. Bills (3-4) @ Saints (5-1) Sunday, 12:00 PM CT You have to love the way the Bills are playing this year. They have been very competitive under first year coach Doug Marrone. Marrone seems to know a thing or two about developing quarterbacks. Quarterback Thaddeus Lewis was pulled from the Bills practice squad just a few weeks ago and has filled in ably for injured starter E.J. Manuel. Last week, underdog Buffalo scored an impressive 23-21 road victory against AFC East division rival Miami. Though very much improved and getting better every week, the Bills will be no match on the road again against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and scored 69 points in the last two home games in the cozy confines of the Louisiana Superdome. New Orleans is also kicking themselves for letting a sure win against New England in their last game slip through their hands. Word has it that the best tight end in the game, Jimmy Graham, may not play due to injury. Regardless, Saints quarterback Drew Brees still has plenty of weapons to light it up. New Orleans defense is also much improved this year under head coach Sean Peyton and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. New Orleans is an excellent candidate to raise the Lombardi Trophy in February. That is, if their path doesnt have to go through Seattle. THE PICK: Saints 38-20

Cowboys (4-3) @ Lions (4-3) Sunday, 12:00 PM CT Dallas is coming off an excellent defensive effort on the road last week against NFC East division rival Philadelphia, holding the Eagles to a mere three points. Cowboys cornerback Brandon Carr has had the responsibility of covering the oppositions best receiver in recent games. This week, Carr gets the challenge of covering the best receiver in the entire league in Calvin Johnson. If Carr should happen to minimize Johnson, which is highly unlikely, look for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford to distribute the ball to six or seven other receiving targets. It remains to be seen if the up and down Cowboys can string together a third straight win. The talent is evident in Dallas. However, the team is haunted by mental mistakes, especially at the quarterback position anchored by Tony Romo. For every highlight play that Romo makes, it can be guaranteed that he will make the crucial mistake at the end of an important game. The Cowboys will again be on the road for a second straight week against the Lions, who will be playing their second straight game at home. Detroit historically has played better in front of their home crowd at Ford Field. However, the Lions last week dropped a close one at home to the Bengals. Another loss this week on their home field will greatly hamper the playoff chances of quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Calvin Johnson, and company. The same would hold true for the Cowboys if they werent playing in the weak NFC East. NBC should have used their flex option to make the Cowboys @ Lions their Sunday Night affair because it appears that this very well could be the best game of the week. THE PICK: Lions 24-20 Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (5-2) Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Dolphins are officially in disarray after dropping their third straight game after starting the season 3-0. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill apparently is not quite ready for the big time. He was singlehandedly responsible for three damaging turnovers last week that included a pick-six, an interception that ended a drive, and a fumble that set up the Bills gamewinning field goal. There were many Fins fans before the NFL season started that swore their squad would top the AFC East this year because the Patriots were without their full receiving corps from last year. However, the Fins fans failed to recognize that the Patriots offensive line is still one of the best in the NFL and that they have a top-five scoring defense. Pats quarterback Tom Brady welcomed back tight end Rob Gronkowski last week to the tune of eight catches for 114 yards. Gronks return was much anticipated as Bradys young receivers have dropped 26 balls this year, which is second most in the NFL. The Patriots rarely lose two games in a row and should be hungry at home this week after the refs called a never used before penalty on the Pats for pushing a player forward to try and block a kick. The seemingly

ridiculous call allowed Jets kicker Nick Folk a try at a 42-yard game-winning field goal after he just previously missed from 56-yards. THE PICK: Patriots 24-17.

Browns (3-4) @ Chiefs (7-0) Sunday, 12:00 PM CT Lets face it. The Browns offense has not had a pulse under quarterback Brandon Weeden. The only time the Browns offense has shown signs of life was a three game stretch under QB Brian Hoyer where the Browns went 3-0. Unfortunately, Clevelands season went down the drain after Hoyer tore his ACL in Week 5. Quarterback Jason Campbell will now get the chance under center for the Browns. The last time we saw Jason Campbell, he was in a Bears uniform last year starting for the injured Jay Cutler in a 32-7 loss to the 49ers. This appears to just be Clevelands natural progression toward obtaining a quarterback next year in the NFL draft. Campbell has the misfortune of making his 2013 start against the Kansas City Chiefs who lead the NFL in sacks with 35 and have allowed the fewest points with 81. The Chiefs have quietly built a top-five defense under coach Andy Reid and their offense makes very few mistakes under quarterback Alex Smith. Kansas City remains the NFLs only undefeated team at 7-0. Make that 8-0 after they beat Cleveland on Sunday. Two games in three weeks against AFC division rival Denver following their bye-week will give us a true idea if Kansas City will be major players in the playoff hunt. However, for now, the Chiefs look like the real deal. THE PICK: Chiefs 24-10 49ers (5-2) @ Jaguars (0-7) Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The storyline here is that this is the second of two games that the NFL has showcased in London this year. This week the NFL announced that it was adding a third game in London next year. It seems to me that the Brits interest in the NFL is akin to the United States passion for English soccer, which is to say, little to no interest. However, commissioner Roger Goodell keeps diluting a distinctly American product by pushing for world domination. The 49ers will also be seeking domination against a Jags team who is competing with the Bucs for the worst record in the league. The San Francisco defense will bottle up a Jacksonville offense that ranks dead last in the league. The 49ers look like they are gearing up for another run at the title this year by scoring over 30 points in four consecutive games. It doesnt matter if they play this game in London, Paris, or Moscow. The result will be the same every time. THE PICK: 49ers 34-10

Giants (1-6) @ Eagles (3-4) Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Giants managed to get into the win column on Monday night only because they played a team in the Vikings whose problems are more magnified than the Giants. At least the Giants have a marquee quarterback in Eli Manning. However, the world would like to know what is wrong with the two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback, who is currently having what may the worst season of his career. The Giants defense decided to show up on Monday night forcing three turnovers and holding Vikings running back Adrian Peterson to 28 yards. However, again, the Giants were playing the woeful Vikings. The Eagles offense should be more dynamic this week after taking a hiatus last week in a 17-3 smothering by the Cowboys. The leagues top-rushing attack of Philadelphia and running back LeSean McCoy should return to form and again exploit the defensive weaknesses of a New York team that they beat 36-21 just three weeks ago. Phillys quarterback position continues to be a revolving door as Michael Vick returns this week to replace the injured Nick Foles who replaced the injured Michael Vick. Just when you think youve seen the last of Michael Vick, Drew Berrymore screams Theyre Back! and Vick returns like a poltergeist. THE PICK: Eagles: 31-20 Jets (4-3) @ Bengals (5-2) Sunday, 3:05 PM CT The holiday season came early for the New York Jets last week as they received the gift of a never used before penalty call that allowed kicker Nick Folk a second chance at a field goal to win the game against the Pats. This is the second time this year that the Jets have been aided by the referees in the waning moments of a game as a penalty moved Folk into field goal range to kick the winner against the Bucs in Week 1. The Jets have been more up and down than the Cowboys this year, alternating wins and losses every week. New York also has not fared well against above average defenses this year, scoring only six points against the Steelers two weeks ago and 13 points against the Titans in Week 4. The Bengals have one of those above average defenses that has recently come into its own. The Bengals quietly sit atop the AFC North with a 5-2 record after winning three consecutive games, the last two being road victories. Cincinnati is the superior team against a New York team whose offense often takes weeks off under rookie quarterback Geno Smith. This week has the makings of a David Copperfield disappearing act on the part of the Jets. THE PICK: Bengals 24-13 Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (2-4) Sunday, 3:05 PM CT The Steelers apparently came back after their bye week refreshed because they ride a two game winning streak since then. However, the Steelers still have a sizable hole in which to dig out after an 0-4 start to the season. Pittsburgh scored a total of 38 points in their victories against the rollercoaster Jets and reeling AFC North division rival Ravens. The Jets and Ravens feature above average defenses. However, the Steelers offense still seems to be having problems putting points on the board and one has to wonder if they caught the Jets and Ravens at the right time. The Raiders are coming off the bye and should be well rested.

Oakland is not vying for the worst record in the league like everybody though they would at the start of the year. The Raiders have actually played good defense at times this year. However, Oaklands offensive line has had a hard time protecting quarterback Terrelle Pryor this year and last week surrendered 10 sacks to the Kansas City defense. Pittsburghs defense under the guidance of defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has the potential to again harass Pryor this week and force him into mistakes. However, will the Steelers weak offense be able to capitalize on the Raiders mistakes? This game could go either way, but the Raiders get the nod as the Steelers have to travel to the West Coast, which is always tough for Eastern teams. The Raiders have also won both home games this year that Pryor has started. THE PICK: Raiders 17-16

Redskins (2-4) @ Broncos (6-1) Sunday, 3:25 PM CT The Redskins offense finally came to life last week as they hung 45 points on the Bears last week. However, the Skins defense remains this teams weakness in allowing 41 points in the 45-41 victory. The Skins scoring was fueled by three touchdowns by running back Roy Helu who hit pay dirt from 14, 3, and 3 yards. Helus last touchdown run with 45 seconds left in the game stood as the winning points in the Washington win. The Redskins will again try to establish the running game this week to control the clock and keep Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense off the field. However, the stingy Denver run defense is tops in the NFL, allowing an average of 77.1 rush yards per game. The Broncos are also coming off a Sunday night loss to the Colts. I dont see Denver losing two games in a row, especially against a Washington defense that has allowed 72 points in the last two games. The Broncos will once again return to form this week and put their foot down on the gas pedal at the expense of the Redskins. THE PICK: Broncos 41-20 Falcons (2-4) @ Cardinals (3-4) Sunday, 3:25 PM CT The Falcons could use a mulligan on the 2013 NFL season. No team has seemingly been more devastated by the injury bug this year than Atlanta. The receiving corps is thin with Roddy White expected to miss his second consecutive game and Julio Jones on the injured reserve for

the year. However, the Falcons received some good news this week in that running back Steven Jackson will return to the lineup after being injured in Week 2. Atlanta continues to struggle in the red zone. Coach Mike Smith has been overly aggressive by trying to continue scoring drives on fourth down and short yardage and forgoing sure field goals. The decision backfired in a 30-28 Monday night loss to the New York Jets in Week 5. The Falcons have been snake bit in losing four games by a total of 19 points. The Cardinals could be the elixir that turns the Falcons season around, however, it may be too little too late. The Cardinals have been blown out by superior teams this year, with the Seahawks, 49ers, and Saints each hanging over 30 points on them. However, the Cards can play great defense when they want to and allowed a total of 37 points in their wins against the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Lions. However, Arizonas offense continues to struggle and the team is near the bottom of the NFL scoring an average of 19 points per game. So will it be the Jekyll or Hyde version of the Arizona Cardinals that shows up against a hobbled Atlanta Falcons team that still could be dangerous under the leadership of quarterback Matt Ryan? Stay tuned. Both of these teams showed great promise this year, yet continue to struggle. The Falcons have to travel across the country to play this game in Arizona. The Cardinals have had extra time to rest since they havent played since last Thursday. THE PICK: Cardinals 23-20

Packers (4-2) @ Vikings (1-5) Sunday, 7:30 PM CT The Vikings were dreadful Monday night losing to the New York Giants 23-7. Fans are still wondering why Vikings coach Leslie Frazier would set his quarterback Josh Freeman up for failure. Freeman had just recently joined Minnesota two weeks ago after being released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. One has to wonder if Freeman even had time to learn the playbook. It certainly showed with Freeman completing a paltry 20 passes out of 53 attempts on Monday night. Frazier says he sticks by his quarterback and plans to throw him to the wolves once again on Sunday night against the Packers. The gaffe may very well cost Frazier his coaching job at the end of the year. The Packers are, well, the Packers. Green Bay continues to be one of the model franchises in the NFL every year under the guidance of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Pack currently ranks second in the league in offense despite having some key injuries in recent weeks. Wide receiver Randall Cobb fractured his fibula several weeks ago and was placed on injured reserve. It appears that tight end Jermichael Finley will also be put on IR after suffering a neck and spinal cord injury. Wide receiver James Jones did not practice this

week and is doubtful with a knee injury, and linebacker Clay Matthews is still sidelined with a thumb injury. However, the Packers still have recorded eight sacks in the last two games and have held the opposition to a total of 39 points in the last three games. The Packers also looked like an injury ward in 2010 when they made an improbable playoff run and ended up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Aaron Rodgers continues to be the glue that keeps this team together. He never fails to state a case as to why hes the best player in the league and again could be sniffing at another MVP award and Lombardi Trophy. Those watching this game on NBC Sunday Night Football this weekend may be able to go to bed at halftime. THE PICK: Packers 31-13 Seahawks (6-1) @ Rams (3-4) Monday, 7:40 PM CT The Rams contacted me this week about quarterbacking their team, but I told them I was too busy watching my teenage son play ice hockey. Rumor has it that the Rams reached out this week to former NFL QB Brett Favre about taking the helm of their sinking ship. St. Louis lost their staring quarterback Sam Bradford for the season last week to an ACL tear. The Rams will apparently go with Kellen Clemens at quarterback to replace Bradford. Clemens was the only other quarterback on St. Louis roster or practice squad. Im not sure it matters who quarterbacks the St. Louis Rams this year. The team took a step back this year and is mired in a 3-4 season with the opposing team hanging 30 points or more on the Rams in their four losses. One has to wonder if Sam Bradford is the answer at quarterback and if he will even be back next year. Since Bradford was drafted with the first overall pick in 2010, the Rams have not finished the season above .500. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are looking every bit of a Super Bowl champion on both sides of the ball. It is difficult to find a weakness on Seattles team. The offensive line is one of the best in the game and the defense is smothering, with a secondary that may be second-to-none in the league. The Seahawks should be the fifth team to hang 30 points or more on the Rams this year. Those watching the game on ESPN Monday Night Football this week should be able to go to bed by halftime. THE PICK: Seahawks 34-13