Sector Review:

Asia-Pacific Credit Trends 2014: Real Estate Developers Wrestle With Regulatory Curbs; REITs Hunt For M&As
Primary Credit Analysts: Bei Fu, Hong Kong (852) 2533-3512; bei.fu@standardandpoors.com Craig W Parker, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2073; craig.parker@standardandpoors.com

Table Of Contents
Sector Outlook Key Risks And Trends Ask The Analyst Real Estate Development: Neutral Regulatory Impact For China; Severe For Hong Kong Real Estate Investment Trusts: Low Interest Rates And Financing Access Will Spur M&As Related Research

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Sector Review:

Asia-Pacific Credit Trends 2014: Real Estate Developers Wrestle With Regulatory Curbs; REITs Hunt For M&As
(Editor's Note: This article is part of a series on the credit trends of Asia-Pacific's corporate sectors for 2014. The series responds to analytical queries received recently on a sector or a specific issuer in that sector.)

Sector Outlook
The credit outlooks for the real estate investment trust (REIT) and property development sectors in Asia-Pacific will largely be stable in 2014. Some markets in the real estate development sector are likely to perform worse than this year though. In particular, reasonably strong demand in property is likely to continue to support China's real estate developers. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services expects the regulatory policy impact on China's real estate sector to be neutral. Nevertheless, we may see some moderation in performance in 2014, compared to the Chinese sector's strong results this year. Hong Kong, on the other hand, is likely to face a tough time. Harsh regulatory measures are squeezing demand, spurring price cuts from leading Hong Kong developers that could compress margins across the sector. Meanwhile, Indonesia's real estate development sector has good growth potential, although from a small base. Vietnam's market has bottomed out, but the near-term outlook remains subdued. Across the Asia-Pacific region, the business outlook and financial trend would be somewhat weaker than in 2013 (see table 1).
Table 1

Asia-Pacific Real Estate Sector Outlook For 2014

Real estate development Real estate investment trust Business conditions Business outlook Financial trend Sector outlook Somewhat weaker Somewhat weaker Somewhat weaker Stable Satisfactory No change Higher Stable

Key Risks And Trends

Although the credit outlook for Hong Kong is weakening, large property developers earn recurring rental income and have low leverage, which will support their credit profiles. China's property developers may not grow as strongly as in 2013 because we believe prices and sales volumes are unlikely to repeat the sharp spike this year. However, if sales and prices were to rise further, regulatory tightening may occur. On the refinancing front, we believe Chinese developers have manageable debt loads, given their good sales

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Sector Review: Asia-Pacific Credit Trends 2014: Real Estate Developers Wrestle With Regulatory Curbs; REITs Hunt For M&As

cash flows and access to funding in 2013. Real estate purchasers across the region are bidding up asset values not off the back of improving rentals but because they believe that current asset values represent good buying opportunities. And the relatively low level of interest rates compared to property income yields have spurred buyers to take on more debt. However, we believe rents are not justifying the asset prices and should economic conditions worsen, rents may tip downward and cause asset values to fall, leaving participants overleveraged.

Ask The Analyst Real Estate Development: Neutral Regulatory Impact For China; Severe For Hong Kong
Do you expect the new Chinese government to tighten its control measures further, given the recent heat in land sales?
Regulatory risk will remain a key uncertainty for the Chinese property sector. Nevertheless, we believe the new government is likely to adopt a more market-oriented stance than the previous administration. However, if housing or land prices were to jump, it may affect social stability, in which case the government will have to intervene. Such a scenario may lead to more regulatory restrictions. This would in turn hurt the credit quality of those developers with less financial flexibility, more aggressive appetites including buying land at peak prices, and concentrated portfolios. As long as the property markets grow at a reasonable pace, our base case assumes that the regulatory environment will largely be stable in 2014.

Will the lending environment and offshore capital markets be supportive of Chinese developers' performance and growth appetite?
We believe Chinese developers will continue to expand aggressively, despite improving financial management over the past few years. The market offers attractive growth and consolidation opportunities for developers. We therefore don't expect deleveraging to occur in 2014, but that developers will borrow more to support rapid growth. We believe refinancing risk is still manageable for Chinese developers, thanks to the strong sales, good cash earnings, and their unprecedented access to funding throughout 2013. The sector, including many first-time issuers--big and small--borrowed heavily from offshore bond and loan markets in 2013. The new issuers alone issued more than US$4 billion equivalent of bonds this year. Indeed, we believe Chinese developers are likely to enjoy satisfactory access to funding in 2014, although it will be hard to match the activity levels in 2013.

What's the market outlook for the Hong Kong and Singapore property markets?
The real estate development sectors in Hong Kong and Singapore are facing a slightly negative outlook. For Hong Kong, the regulatory measures introduced since late 2012 have been the most restrictive in recent history. They have substantially curbed overseas as well as local investment demand. As a result, transaction volumes have been depressed and prices are likely to fall. In fact, leading developer Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. has been the first to cut property prices materially in recent weeks. We expect cash flows to reduce and margins to thin in 2014 for local

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Sector Review: Asia-Pacific Credit Trends 2014: Real Estate Developers Wrestle With Regulatory Curbs; REITs Hunt For M&As

developers. Moreover, we don't expect the regulator to loosen its control measures in the near future until the supply and demand gap narrows. Singapore too faces a strict regulatory environment. We believe stringent regulatory policies and an increased supply of public housing will temper private-sector demand in the near term.

Real Estate Investment Trusts: Low Interest Rates And Financing Access Will Spur M&As
How sensitive are the REITs to rising interest rates?
We stress rated REITs' sensitivity to increasing interest rates in framing our expectations for their financial metrics. The sector is currently enjoying historically low interest rates and the ready availability of debt financing in major Asian markets. Nevertheless, higher interest costs that are unhedged can have an impact on the coverage measures for our rated universe. However, in the short term, we don't see any prospect of financial shocks to the rated sector.

Will REITs continue to target other peers for takeovers or acquire or develop assets in light of favorable interest rates and availability of credit in the region?
We are witnessing the first signs of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the region. In Australia, we placed Commonwealth Property Office Fund and DEXUS Property Group on CreditWatch following a proposed acquisition involving the two entities. However, the potential premium to net tangible assets offered and the extent to which acquirers are prepared to stretch their financial profiles with debt funding will constrain M&As. To date, the growth in assets for our rated sector has been sourced from trade sales and greenfield developments that have been funded with a combination of debt and equity. We expect that measured asset acquisitions and prudent development projects that are consistent with the companies' operating strategy and financial policies will continue apace.

The Asia-Pacific real estate sector has been attracting substantial investments, relative to the U.S. and Europe/Middle East. Is this encouraging the region's companies to adopt a more aggressive operating strategy?
Our rated REITs have moderated their financial risk appetites post the global financial crisis. Pension and sovereign wealth funds that have invested in the region generally require experienced real estate owners and managers to fulfill the funds' property mandates. To date, these investments have not eventuated in a sea change for our rated managers, requiring them to significantly "dial up" their debt usage. Rather, it has benefited local management teams. The offshore capital providers have long-term investment horizons aligned with the REITs' strategies, and bring sizable balance sheets to fund future growth.

Related Research
Asia-Pacific Credit Trends 2014: Tech Firms Focusing On Asia And Smart Devices Will Outperform, Oct. 28, 2013 Asia Pacific Credit Trends 2014: Telcos Look To The Cloud In Search Of Growth, Oct. 27, 2013

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