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Job Ads July 2009
Job Ads July 2009
• Job ads on the internet and in newspapers fell by 1.7% in July, taking the annual fall to 51.9%.
• Newspaper job ads fell by 0.4%, while internet job ads dropped by 1.8%.
• Job advertisements are showing tentative signs of stabilisation, which implies that business is
no longer cutting back hiring intentions at the same pace.
• The data provides further evidence that demand for labour in the Australian economy is still
wallowing at recessionary levels. So far, the difference between the current downturn and a
recession however has been that weak demand for labour has not translated into
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN 11 005 357 522
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widespread labour shedding, with most employers choosing to cut back on staff working
hours rather than reducing overall headcount. Indeed, the main driver of increasing
unemployment has been rapid growth in the labour force due to strong population growth
and high levels of participation.
• Somewhat encouragingly however, the trend pace of decline in job ads has eased for the
past five months, a tentative sign that job ads may soon stabilise and that businesses may
stop cutting back on hiring intentions.
• This will unfortunately be insufficient to prevent job shedding in the near term, with
employment expected to contract moderately through the remainder of 2009. ANZ expects
employment to fall by 18,000 in July and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.1% when the
ABS releases the Labour Force report on Thursday.
• However we are increasingly optimistic that the pace of decline in employment will not be
as severe as envisaged six months ago. Australian economic activity has been remarkably
resilient in recent months, particularly for our largest employer, the retail sector.
Furthermore, the recent rebound in business confidence and conditions suggests that
employers may not be as pressed to cut back on labour (and investment) costs. We now
expect the Australian unemployment rate to peak at around 7.5% in mid 2010.
• Australia's economic recovery will remain very fragile until the unemployment rate peaks.
Nevertheless, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens last week refused to rule out interest rate
increases prior to this occurring. As such, we expect the RBA to keep rates on hold and to
soften or remove its bias for further rate cuts when the Board meets on Tuesday.
For further comment (from For further comment contact: For distribution enquiries
12:30pm onwards) contact: contact:
Warren Hogan Riki Polygenis Vanessa O’Shaughnessy
Head of Australian Economist Media Relations Manager
Economics
Tel: 0414 498 675 Tel: (03) 9273 4060 Tel: (03) 9273 5257
Email: Email: Email:
Warren.Hogan@anz.com Riki.Polygenis@anz.com Oshaughv@anz.com
Next release: August 2009 Expected release date: Monday 7 September 2009
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Total
-20
-40 Newspapers
-60
00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 07 08 09
0.6 0.3
0.4 0.2
0.2 0.1
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050606 07 08 09
(a) The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally
adjusted series. While this smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the latest month, it does result
in revisions to the most recent six months as additional observations become available.
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Victoria -
Feb 2009 2,065 1,798 -18.3 -54.9 1,819 -8.6 -54.5
Mar 2009 1,672 1,645 -8.5 -55.8 1,731 -4.9 -56.0
Apr 2009 1,426 1,622 -1.4 -60.9 1,695 -2.1 -55.8
May 2009 1,723 1,616 -0.4 -56.3 1,695 0.0 -54.1
Jun 2009 1,676 1,728 7.0 -50.5 1,722 1.6 -51.2
Jul 2009 2,015 1,995 15.4 -38.1 1,752 1.7 -47.3
Queensland -
Feb 2009 1,040 964 -26.5 -64.1 1,032 -10.5 -62.6
Mar 2009 937 891 -7.5 -63.8 956 -7.4 -63.9
Apr 2009 756 894 0.3 -68.2 902 -5.6 -64.3
May 2009 838 850 -4.9 -64.0 867 -3.9 -64.1
Jun 2009 826 860 1.2 -61.7 845 -2.6 -63.2
Jul 2009 908 899 4.6 -57.7 831 -1.6 -61.5
South Australia -
Feb 2009 1,021 907 -22.2 -48.8 962 -7.6 -45.1
Mar 2009 928 863 -4.9 -45.8 920 -4.4 -46.5
Apr 2009 779 868 0.7 -51.6 897 -2.5 -46.5
May 2009 926 936 7.8 -42.2 883 -1.5 -46.1
Jun 2009 846 891 -4.9 -45.1 876 -0.9 -45.4
Jul 2009 870 872 -2.1 -41.3 865 -1.2 -44.7
The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The Sydney Morning Herald and
The Daily Telegraph (NSW); The Age and The Herald-Sun (Victoria); The Courier-Mail (Queensland); and The
Advertiser (South Australia).
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Tasmania -
Feb 2009 413 361 -19.5 -29.2 394 -5.4 -21.1
Mar 2009 349 337 -6.7 -25.0 388 -1.7 -21.3
Apr 2009 345 396 17.7 -20.6 393 1.3 -21.0
May 2009 434 446 12.5 -9.7 404 3.0 -21.0
Jun 2009 363 392 -12.2 -29.0 419 3.5 -21.2
Jul 2009 459 470 19.9 -16.3 434 3.7 -20.3
ACT -
Feb 2009 582 481 -27.4 -41.0 526 -3.9 -36.4
Mar 2009 522 486 1.1 -33.5 507 -3.5 -35.0
Apr 2009 435 482 -0.7 -34.6 491 -3.3 -33.5
May 2009 499 482 -0.1 -31.2 477 -2.7 -32.2
Jun 2009 468 483 0.3 -27.8 467 -2.1 -31.7
Jul 2009 456 457 -5.4 -32.6 456 -2.5 -32.1
Northern Territory -
Feb 2009 220 215 -33.8 -50.8 274 -5.6 -32.1
Mar 2009 260 256 19.2 -16.1 266 -3.1 -32.8
Apr 2009 270 280 9.3 -33.1 263 -1.0 -32.0
May 2009 292 268 -4.5 -32.2 264 0.2 -30.9
Jun 2009 291 273 2.2 -28.3 265 0.4 -29.9
Jul 2009 275 264 -3.3 -29.8 267 1.0 -28.4
The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The West Australian (Western
Australia); The Mercury, The Examiner and The Advocate (Tasmania); The Canberra Times (Australian Capital
Territory); and The NT News (Northern Territory).
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The internet series counts the average number of advertisements carried by each of the sites contributing to the
series on the same day of each week in the month indicated. The day (which is not necessarily the same for each
site) is selected by the site operator as broadly representative of its activity levels. The above data are based on
information provided by the operators of the following sites: Seek.com.au; Hudson Global Resources; and the
Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) Australian Job Search site, jobsearch.gov.au.
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