Solutions to Exam 4 Page 1 of 5

IE 111 Fall 2010

Solutions to Exam 4
Sec. 10 Question 1 (15 points) We Deliver, Inc. offers next day delivery of packages weighing
between 2 and 20 pounds in a certain city. They have found that the weights of the packages
they deliver are (continuous) uniformly distributed between 2 and 20 pounds. Given that a
package weighs less than 10 pounds, what is the probability that it weighs less than 5 pounds?
SOLUTION
X:Weight of package in lb, ~Uniform(2,20)
We know that for the Uniform distribution ( )
X
x a
F x
b a

5 2
( 5 AND 10) ( 5) 3
20 2
( 5| 10)
10 2 ( 10) ( 10) 8
20 2
P X X P X
P X X
P X P X

< < <

< < = = = =
< <

Sec. 11 Question 1 (15 points) The amount of time that a randomly chosen student spends on
homework per week is (continuous) uniformly distributed from 30 to 120 minutes. What is the
probability that a randomly chosen student spends at least 60 minutes per week on homework
knowing that he/she will spend at most 80 minutes per week on homework?
SOLUTION
X:Time spent on homework, Uniform(30,120)
( 60 AND 80) ( 80) ( 60)
( 60| 80)
( 80) ( 80)
80 30 60 30
20
90 120 30 120 30
0.4
80 30 50
90
120 30
P X X P X P X
P X X
P X P X
> < < <
> < = =
< <

= = =

In both of the above problems, you are asked to find conditional probabilities. The PDF of the
distributions should not change and you should make your calculations using the definition of the
conditional probability.

BOTH SECTIONS Question 2 (15 points) The annual rainfall (in inches) in a certain region is
normally distributed with = 40, = 4. What is the probability that in 2 of the next 4 years
the rainfall will exceed 50 inches? Assume that the rainfalls in different years are
independent.
SOLUTION
X:Annual rainfall, ~N(40,4
2
)
Solutions to Exam 4 Page 2 of 5
50 40
( 50) ( 2.5) ( 2.5) 0.00621
4
P X P Z P Z P Z
| |
> = > = > = < =
|
\ .

Therefore, the probability of success in a year is 0.00621 and we have a binomial distribution
with n=4 and p=0.00621
( ) ( )
2 2 4
(2 of the next 4 yrs. rainfall exceeds 50in.) 0.00621 1 0.00621
2
0.000229
P
| |
=
|
\ .
=


Sec. 10 Question 3 (15 points) A bank wishing to increase its customer base advertises that it
has the fastest service and that virtually all of its customers are served in less than 10 minutes.
A management scientist has studied the service times and concluded that service times are
exponentially distributed with a mean of 5 minutes. Determine what the bank means when it
claims virtually all its customers are served under 10 minutes.
SOLUTION
X:Service time at the bank, ~Exponential(1/5) as E[X]=5=1/
We know that
( ) ( ) 1
x
X
P X x F x e

< = =

1
10
5
( 10) 1 0.8647 P X e

< = =
Even though the bank is claiming they are serving virtually all the customers under 10 minutes,
they only serve 86.47% of them.
Sec.11 Question 3 (15 points)Toll booths on the New York Thruway are often congested
because of the large number of cars waiting to pay. A consultant working for the state
concluded that of service times are measured from the time a car stops in line until it leaves,
service times are exponentially distributed with a mean of 2.7 minutes. What proportion of cars
can get through the toll booth in less than 3 minutes?
SOLUTION
X:Service time at the toll booth, ~Exponential(1/2.7) as E[X]=2.7=1/. We will again use the CDF
given in the above problem.
1
3
2.7
( 3) 1 0.6708 P X e

< = =
Thus, 67.08% of the cars go through the booth in less than 3 minutes
Sec. 10 Question 4 (20 points) According to US Census Bureau, in 2008, 13.2% of population
was below the poverty level. Assuming that this percentage is still valid today, what is the
probability that between 100 and 150, inclusive, of the next 1,000 randomly selected people will
be below the poverty level?
SOLUTION
P(A person below poverty level) = p = 0.132, n = 1000
Solutions to Exam 4 Page 3 of 5
We can check to see if Normal distribution approximation is ok to use in this problem. We need
not only np > 5 but n(1-p) > 5 as well.
np = 132 > 5 and n(1-p) = 868 > 5 so we use the Normal distribution. Then,
E[X]= np = 100(0.132) = 132 and V(X) = np(1-p) = 1000(0.132)(0.868)=114.576
= 10.704, therefore X
c
~N(132,114.576)
(100 150) (99.5 150.5) ( 150.5) ( 99.5)
150.5 132 99.5 132
10.704 10.704
c c c
P X P X P X P X
P Z P Z
s s = s s = s s
| | | |
= < <
| |
\ . \ .

Using your books z-tables the above probability is 0.958185 0.001183 = 0.957002
Using EXCEL 0.958035 0.001198 = 0.956837
Sec. 11 Question 4 (20 points) According to a study published by a group of sociologists at the
University of Massachusetts, approximately 49% of the Valium users in the state of
Massachusetts are white collar workers. What is the probability between 482 and 510,
inclusive, of the next 1,000 randomly selected Valium users from this state will be white collar
workers?
SOLUTION
P(Valium user is a white collar worker) = p = 0.49, n = 1000
np = 490 > 5 and n(1-p) = 510 > 5 => Normal approximation will work
E[X]= np = 100(0.49) = 490 and V(X) = np(1-p) = 1000(0.49)(0.51)=249.9
= 15.808, therefore X
c
~N(490,249.9)
(482 510) (481.5 510.5) ( 510.5) ( 481.5)
510.5 490 481.5 490
15.808 15.808
c c c
P X P X P X P X
P Z P Z
s s = s s = s s
| | | |
= < <
| |
\ . \ .

Using your books z-tables the above probability is 0.903199 0.294599 = 0.6086
Using EXCEL 0.902652 0.295391 = 0.607261
Sec. 10 Question 5 Pasta sauces are sold in jars containing a stated weight of 500g of sauce.
The jars are filled by a machine. The actual weight of sauce in each jar is normally distributed
with mean 505 g.
a) (10 points) If 13.8% of the jars have less than 495g of sauce, find the standard deviation
(use 2 decimal points)
495 505 495 505
( 495) 0.138 1.09 9.17 P X P Z o
o o
| |
< = < = = =
|
\ .

b) (10 points) Find the probability that a jar containing less than the stated weight
Since 500 is smaller than the mean, i.e. 505, the probability you are going to find should be less
than 0.5!

Solutions to Exam 4 Page 4 of 5

500 505
( 500) ( 0.55) 0.29116
9.17
P X P Z P Z
| |
< = < = < =
|
\ .

c) (5 points) In a box of 30 jars, find the expected number of jars containing less than the
stated weight
Expected # of jars containing less than < 500g = 30(0.29116) = 8.73
d) (10 points) The mean weight of sauce is changed so that 1% of the jars contain less than
the stated weight. The standard deviation stays the same. Find the new mean weight of
sauce.

500
( 500) 0.01 Use either -2.33 or -2.32
9.17
500
2.33 521.37
9.17
P X P Z
g

| |
< = < =
|
\ .

= =

Sec. 11 Question 5 A vending machine dispenses coffee into cups. A sign on the machine
indicates that each cup contains 50 ml of coffee. The machine actually dispenses coffee that is
normally distributed with mean 55 ml per cup and
a) (10 points) If 3.8% of the jars contain less than 48ml coffee, find the standard deviation
(use 2 decimal points)
48 55 48 55
( 48) 0.038 1.77 3.95 P X P Z o
o o
| |
< = < = = =
|
\ .

b) (10 points) Find the probability that a cup containing less than the stated amount
Since 50 is smaller than the mean, i.e. 55, the probability you are going to find should be less
than 0.5!

50 55
( 50) ( 1.27) 0.102042
3.95
P X P Z P Z
| |
< = < = < =
|
\ .

c) (5 points) If the machine has 100 cups, find the expected number of cups containing less
than the stated amount
Expected # cups containing < 50 ml = 100*0.102042 = 10.20
d) (10 points) Following complaints, the owners of the machine make adjustments. Only
2.5% of cups now contain less than 50 ml. The standard deviation of the amount
dispensed is reduced to 3ml. Assuming the amount of coffee dispensed is still normally
distributed, find the new mean amount of coffee per cup.
50 50
( 50) 0.025 1.96 55.88
3 3
P X P Z ml


| |
< = < = = =
|
\ .


Solutions to Exam 4 Page 5 of 5
BONUS (10 points) Find the PDF of the following CDF
2
2
0 0
0.5 0 4
( ) 0.1 8 0.4 4 10
14 0.5 82 0.6 10 14
16 0.6 14
X
x
kx x
F x x k x
kx kx k x
k x
<

s <

= + s <

+ s <

+ >

so the above functions have been alre ( ) ( ady ) , integrated!
X X
x
F x f u du =
}
0.4
You know that when upper bound, ( ) 1 16 0.6 1 0.025
16
X
x F x k k > = + = = =

2 2
2
Range 0 4
( ) (0.05 0.025) 0.0125 0.025
(4) 0.0125 4 0.2
X
X
x
d d
f x x x x
dx dx
F
s <
= = =
= =

You don't need to calculate this sum here,
as the derivative of a constant is zero
(4)
Range 4 10
( ) (0.1 8(0.025) 0.4 0.2 ) 0.1
(10) 0.1(10) 8(0.025) 0.4 0.8
x
X
F
X
x
d
f x x
dx
F
s <
= + =
= + =

2
(10)
Range 10 14
( ) 14(0.025) 0.5(0.025) 82(0.025) 0.6 0.8
0.35 0.025
X
CONSTANT
X
F
x
d
f x x x
dx
x
s <
| |
| |
|
|
=
|
|
|
\ .
\ .
=


0.025 0 4
( ) 0.1 4 10
0.35 0.025 10 14
X
x x
f x x
x x
s <

= s <

s <

Why do I subtract
F
X
(4) and F
X
(10)
values? Because F
X
(.)
is a cumulative
function!