The weekly briefing | 28 October 2013

Political and security risk update

Africa: Ethiopian troops arrive in south of o!alia for !ediation talks bet"een the federal govern!ent and a ufi para!ilitary group# Americas: $ave of violent de!onstrations in Bra%il a!id sustained popular discontent# Asia and Pacific: hin%o &be approves plan to allo" the 'apan &ir elf()efence *orce to engage drones violating 'apanese airspace# Europe: +er!any and *rance to renegotiate intelligence cooperation "ith the ,nited tates follo"ing revelations of "idespread , eavesdropping on European leaders# Middle East: -+O reports rene" concerns over , drone strike progra!!es in Pakistan. /e!en and else"here# Polar regions: 0ussian prosecutors to drop piracy charges levelled against +reenpeace activists in the &rctic 30 case but "ill seek hooliganis! convictions#

&frica
Ethiopian troops arrive in south of Somalia for mediation talks between the federal government and a Sufi paramilitary group On 21 October. Ethiopian troops arrived in the south of o!alia to help resolve long(running grudges bet"een the federal o!ali govern!ent troops and &hlu unna $al2a!a3a. a ufi !ilitia opposed to al( habaab# 4oo!ing threats of instability had !anifested on the previous day in clashes bet"een the t"o forces. in "hich three people "ere killed# Ethiopian troops re5uested both sides to co!e to the negotiating table over the !atter# 6t "as reported that Ethiopian soldiers set up te!porary positions in the outskirts of the +edo regional to"n of Beled 7a"o# 8his latest develop!ent signifies the greater involve!ent of Ethiopia in o!alia9s do!estic affairs# Ethiopian troops intervened in south o!alia in late 2001 but "ithdre" in early 200:# ince then. Ethiopian troops have been actively involved in southern o!alia9s troubled regions of +edo. Bakool and Bay in support of the o!ali federal govern!ent9s security operations# 8he further involve!ent of Ethiopian troops in o!alia is likely to provoke !ilitant groups such as al( habaab. "ho have repeatedly stressed their ob2ection to ;enyan and Ethiopian intervention in their internal affairs# 8his ob2ection has !anifested in nu!erous border clashes bet"een the t"o sides. and !ore recently. a failed bo!b attack in "hich t"o o!ali !en "ere killed in &ddis &baba#

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!ther developments !n " !ctober# Ethiopian troops reinforced Somali government troops in a battle against al$Shabaab militants in the %ay region of southern Somalia& 8he fighting began "hen o!ali govern!ent troops engaged al( habaab !ilitants after they had set up an illegal roadblock in the ,furo" district# &ccording to reports. appro<i!ately 10 troops fro! both sides "ere killed and the al( habaab fighters fled the area "hen Ethiopian troops arrived# 8he federal o!ali govern!ent has been atte!pting to reassert control over the southern regions and has been successful in re!oving al( habaab !ilitants fro! nu!erous strategic border to"ns# Appro'imately four civilians were killed and 1" others wounded in a grenade attack that targeted Somali federal government soldiers in the (ower Shabelle region of south Somalia& ,nidentified assailants launched the attack in a busy !arket# oldiers responded "ith gunfire. "hich according to so!e reports killed and "ounded nearby civilians# uch attacks have been co!!onplace since o!ali troops backed by &frican ,nion =ission in o!alia >&=6 O=? troops successfully drove al( habaab !ilitants fro! the region# !n ) !ctober# a delegation headed by the *nited +ations Special ,epresentative to Somalia# +icholas -ay# arrived in Puntland for reconciliation and security talks# &ccording to reports. issues such as the further de!ocratisation of Puntland "ere discussed "ith the President of Puntland &bdirah!an *arole# 8his visit "ill inevitably be seen as a boost to the legiti!acy of the Puntland govern!ent. "ho have been engaged in a po"er struggle "ith the federal govern!ent over their po"ers to grant foreign co!panies oil e<ploration licenses "ithin the se!i(autono!ous territory# !n the radar President .assan Sheikh Mohamud is due to travel to -ismayo in southern o!alia to hold talks "ith the 'ubbaland president. &h!ed =adobe# Mohammad Nur

&!ericas
/ave of violent demonstrations in %ra0il amid sustained popular discontent $eekly clashes bet"een protestors and Bra%ilian security forces have occurred since the beginning of October# 4ast "eek. t"o further peaceful de!onstrations turned into violent protests# 8he first. on 21 October. targeted the 4ibra oil e<ploration auction in 0io de 'aneiro and left five in2ured# 8he second. on 2@ October. "as directed against public transport fares in Ao Paulo and resulted in :2 arrests# 6n both cases. the presence of the Black Bloc anarchist group a!ong the de!onstrators spurred confrontation "ith the security forces# Bra%il9s President )il!a 0ousseff conde!ned these incidents as Banti(de!ocratic brutalities9# 7o"ever. these protests are sy!pto!atic of "ider proble!s# 8he public school teachers9 C: days strike that has 2ust ended. the current stand(off "ith banking sector e!ployees and the recent de!ands fro! !ilitary forces are all suggest a broader !alaise shared across different seg!ents of Bra%ilian society#

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*ollo"ing the 'une 2013 protests. in "hich !illions of Bra%ilians took on to the streets to e<press their grievances. 0ousseff proposed a series of political and econo!ic refor!s# 8he president9s !ove succeeded in cal!ing the situation at the ti!e but structural changes have yet to be introduced and the !uch publicised plebiscite on political refor! failed to receive congressional approval on 10 'uly# &lthough the current de!onstrations are less intense than last su!!er. the current cli!ate suggests that a return to the 'une !ass protests could happen at any !o!ent# !ther developments Peruvian police forces report the capture of a suspected leader of an armed group made up of remnants of the Sendero (uminoso& 8he hining Path used to be a !a2or =aoist insurgent group in Peru# &t present. the group9s !ain operations consist of raising finances through the illicit drugs trade and kidnappings# *ounded in 1:80. its activity declined follo"ing successive counter(insurgency operations in the 1::0s# 8he capture of 0olando Panto2a Duispe is likely to further "eaken "hat is left of the frag!ented organisation# 2olombia3s indigenous community reaches an agreement with the government following a national strike& 6ndigenous representatives have approved a 2@(point agree!ent "ith the govern!ent over territorial and hu!an rights !atters# 8he agree!ent likely paves the "ay for further de!ands fro! Eolo!bia9s large indigenous co!!unity# Me'ican President Enri4ue Pe5a +ieto has been severely criticised by local media for his faint$ hearted response to *S spying claims& *ollo"ing the accusations that the - & hacked the then President *elipe Ealderon3s public e!ail account in 2010. -ieto9s response has been to su!!on the , a!bassador# =e<ico Eity9s "eak response lies in contrast "ith Brasilia9s. "here , spying allegations led President 0ousseff to postpone her state visit to $ashington# !n the radar ,esults due in the 6 !ctober midterm congressional elections in Argentina# "hich "ill seal the fate of President *ernande%9s Fictory *ront party# +ationwide demonstrations called by the 7emocratic coordinator in Paraguay for 28 October to denounce a proposed privatisation la"# (ocalised disruption and unrest likely in .aiti in the co!ing "eeks due to continuing opposition protests against President =ichel =artelly3s ad!inistration# Tancrde Feuillade

&sia and Pacific

Shin0o Abe approves plan to allow the 8apan Air Self$7efence 9orce to engage drones violating 8apanese airspace &ccording to govern!ent sources. 'apan3s pri!e !inister. hin%o &be. has given his approval to a plan that "ill allo" the 'apan &ir elf()efence *orce to engage un!anned aerial vehicles violating the country3s airspace# Ehina3s defence !inistry responded saying. B6f 'apan does resort to enforce!ent !easures like shooting do"n aircraft. that is a serious provocation to us. an act of "ar#9

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8hese are the latest in a series of provocations by both Ehina and 'apan over the enkakuG)iaoyu islands territorial dispute# 'apan controversially purchased three of the islands fro! the ;urihara fa!ily in 2012. "hich pro!oted the long(unsettled dispute to the forefront of the relationship bet"een 8okyo and Bei2ing# 8erritorial and !ariti!e disputes re!ain a great source of volatility in the region# 8he issue has greatly transfor!ed 'apanese strategic planning and electoral politics# +eneral an<iety over Ehinese regional a!bitions has pro!pted a nationalistic upsurge in 'apan# &lthough it "ill be seen as 2ustified by so!e. intercepting or shooting do"n foreign drones "ill be seen by others as a further step a"ay fro! 'apan9s constitutional pacifis!# !ther developments South -orean forces have carried out a military drill on the disputed 7okdo:Takeshima islands# 8hough the islands have been occupied by outh ;orea since 1:@H. both outh ;orea and 'apan lay clai! to the territory on the basis of long(standing historical ties# 8he outh ;orean defence !inistry insists that the islands B"ould be defended by outh ;orea. in "hatever circu!stances#9 8here has. ho"ever. been no i!!ediate backlash fro! the 'apanese govern!ent# The sultanate of %runei has announced a strict new code of Sharia law that will apply to Muslims only& =easures include capital punish!ent by stoning for adultery. dis!e!ber!ent for theft and flogging for the consu!ption of alcohol# Brunei already adheres to the strictest for! of 6sla!ic la" in the region and this ne" code. "hich "ill be enforced in si< !onths. "ill further differentiate Brunei fro! neighbouring =usli! countries =alaysia and 6ndonesia# South -orean officials say that +orth -orea has returned si' South -orean defectors& 6n a rare !ove. the !en "ere handed over on 2@ October at the truce village of Pan!un2o!. "hich lies on the border bet"een the t"o countries# 8his see!s to be an atte!pt to soothe relations follo"ing -orth ;orea9s controversial cancellation of the annually organised event "here fa!ilies "ho have been split by the 38th parallel follo"ing the ;orean $ar are te!porarily reunited# !n the radar The first round of the re$run for the Maldivian presidential election "ill take place on : -ove!ber# Protests. strikes and allegations of harass!ent "ill likely continue# %ei;ing will send a team of officials to 8apan this !onth to garner e<pertise and technological kno"( ho" to use in the effort to tackle air pollution# 8apanese Prime Minister Shin0o Abe has prepared a new law that seeks tougher penalties for leaking classified information on defence and diplo!atic issues# Gary Chan

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Europe
=ermany and 9rance to renegotiate intelligence cooperation with the *nited States following revelations of widespread *S eavesdropping on European leaders 8he +er!an Ehancellor &ngela =erkel has said that together "ith *rench President *rancois 7ollande she "ill be launching a 2oint initiative to renegotiate their intelligence services cooperation "ith the ,nited tates# he said protocols !ust be !et follo"ing revelations of "idespread , eavesdropping on European leaders# =erkel said other countries "ere "elco!e to 2oin the initiative but at the outset they "ould involve only parallel bilateral efforts bet"een , intelligence agencies and. separately. Paris and Berlin# he said she and 7ollande hoped to co!plete the agree!ents "ith the ,nited tates by the end of the year# 8he current antagonis! bet"een the ,nited tates and so!e European countries could i!pact further trade talks bet"een the European ,nion and ,nited tates. "ith the second round of talks already cancelled# 8he !ove could also foretell Europe("ide data protection la"s that "ill affect the Big )ata 6ndustry. "hich specialises in the collection and analysis of co!ple< data sets "hose "ork is of critical i!portance to the technology sector including *acebook. Ebay and &!a%on# 8he 6ndustry needs lo"er privacy standards in order to !a<i!ise the value of individuals9 personal infor!ationI tighter privacy la"s could lead to lo"er profits for the sector# 7o"ever. there see!s to be little desire for a specific E, legal fra!e"ork for data protection# 6nstead. +er!any. along "ith Bra%il and a gro"ing nu!ber of other countries. has drafted a so!e"hat general ,- docu!ent calling for the right to privacy to be upheld in online co!!unications. "hile the European parlia!ent has passed li!ited legislation restricting the ability of , teleco!s fir!s to e<port European user data to the ,nited tates# $hat !ay really be at stake is +er!any9s desire to for! an intelligence pact "ith the ,nited tates along the lines of the *ive Eyes agree!ent# *ive Eyes is an agree!ent dra"n up bet"een the ,nited tates and the ,nited ;ingdo! and the Eo!!on"ealth countries of Eanada. &ustralia and -e" Jealand follo"ing $orld $ar 66# 6t involves cooperation in signals intelligence bet"een the five countries and an understanding that they "ill not spy on one another# +er!any has reportedly been seeking such an agree!ent for years but has been repeatedly snubbed by , officials# !ther developments The 20ech legislative elections have ended with the Social 7emocrats as the winners after having garnered )&<> of the vote# &-O. a pro(business party founded by lovak Billionaire &ndre2 Babis ca!e second "ith 18#CK follo"ed by the Eo!!unist Party "ith 1H#:K# 7aving failed to gain a !a2ority "ith the Eo!!unists. their natural ally on econo!ic policies. the ocial )e!ocrats need an agree!ent "ith the other parties. "ho are opposed to so!e of their !ost i!portant priorities such as ta< increases on top( inco!e earners and debt li!its# &-O. "hich ran on an anti(political corruption platfor!. stated that they "ill reluctantly back a ocial )e!ocratic govern!ent if there is a policy overlap# 8he only "ay for the Ehristian )e!ocrats to be enticed into a govern!ent is through so!e for! of po"er sharing given their stated intent to play a !ore active role in for!ulating their o"n policies#

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Around #))) =olden 7awn supporters demanded the release of party leader +ikos Michaloliakos outside the =reek neo$+a0i party3s offices in 2entral Athens& +olden )a"n9s i!age has been tarnished recently follo"ing the stabbing of rapper Pavlos *yssas and conse5uent cri!inal charges# *unding for the party has been cut and their =Ps have been stripped of their i!!unity# But the party still re!ains the third largest party despite its da!aged popularity and the polls !ay not be accurate given !any people9s reluctance to publicly sho" support for the party follo"ing revelations of its cri!inal activity# 8he likely stability of +olden )a"n9s support reflects the econo!ic roots of the rise of the far right in +reece# E* leaders have put off any immediate change to European migration policy until 8une )1"& 6n the 2@ October !eeting in Brussels. the E, ruled out any appraisals of a long(ter! strategy on the i!!igration crisis for at least eight !onths# hort(ter! !easures "ill include the strengthening of the E,9s border !anage!ent agency. *ronte<# +er!any is resistant of any proposal to spread i!!igrant flo"s across the E, through a co!!on i!!igration policy because they have already accepted !ore asylu! seekers than any other European state# +iven high une!ploy!ent and current public opposition to further flo"s of i!!igration it is not surprising that +er!any and other European countries are reluctant to change conventional policy# !n the radar The @nternational Atomic Energy Agency will convene in Aienna on =onday to discuss 6ran9s nuclear progra!!e# E* diplomat Pierre Aimont to visit @srael this week to discuss a recent ro" regarding ne" E, guidelines covering 'e"ish settle!ent on Palestinian land# Stelios Papadopoulos

=iddle East
+=! reports renew concerns over *S drone strike programmes in Pakistan# Bemen and elsewhere On 22 October. 7u!an 0ights $atch published a report concerning , drones strikes in /e!en# 8he report e<a!ined si< unackno"ledged , !ilitary attacks targeting alleged !e!bers of al(Daeda in the &rab Peninsula# 8he attacks. taking place in 200: and 2012(13. killed 82 people. "ith clai!s that at least @C of these "ere civilians# &!nesty 6nternational also released a report. highlighting the use of un!anned aerial vehicles >,&Fs? by the , in strikes on suspected terrorists in north"est Pakistan3s tribal areas# 8he report conde!ns the lack of transparency surrounding the , drone progra!!e and investigates incidents involving the deaths of civilians that could a!ount to "ar cri!es under international la"# & further report released by $ar Ehild. details ho" auto!ated "eapons. such as un!anned drones. are unsuitable for use in internal conflicts# $ar Ehild highlighted the failure of such "eapons to distinguish bet"een co!batants and civilians. including children# 8he latest reports and criticis!s are likely to fall on deaf ears in $ashington due to the ease "ith "hich drones can be deployed and the lack of risk involved to , and allied troops# &s "ith previous strikes in /e!en and Pakistan. the E6& has refused to investigate and ackno"ledge allegations of civilian deaths as a result of drones# uch a lack of transparency !akes it difficult to scrutinise incidents that !ay. indeed. have broken international la"#

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$ashington has repeatedly clai!ed that drones have killed very fe" civilians and re!ain the strategic option least likely to result in civilian casualties# )rone usage is a controversial topic in international la" and relies upon the technological capability of the drones in tracking and verifying targets# 7o"ever. a lack of transparency and disclosure of infor!ation brings strikes. such as those !entioned in the reports. into disrepute# 8he reports coincided "ith !eetings bet"een , President Barack Oba!a and Pakistani Pri!e =inister -a"a% harif to discuss concerns over the use of drone attacks# !ther developments 9urther deaths across @ra4 as attacks increase# targeting both civilians and security forces& On 20 October. eight suicide bo!bers targeted police stations and checkpoints close to Baghdad. leaving eight dead including council !e!bers and police!en# On the sa!e day. a car bo!b targeted the house of a police chief in the to"n of 8ikrit. killing 10 civilians# 4ater that night. a suicide bo!ber drove his car into a cafe in Baghdad3s &!il neighbourhood. killing 31 people# *urther reports e!erged on 22 October that up to 2@ !e!bers of the security forces "ere killed as suicide bo!bers and gun!en targeted checkpoints in the "estern province of &l &bnar# *igures obtained by the &ssociated Press place the death toll for October at over @20# 6ra5 Body Eount places the nu!ber of civilian deaths for October at 82C# Fiolence in 6ra5 has been on the rise since &pril 2013 and !ay be attributed to groups reinvigorated by the "ar in yria. such as local al(Daeda affiliates and !arginalised unni groups# Aiolent clashes erupted in Tripoli# (ebanon# following a television interview with Syrian President %ashar al$Assad broadcast on 1 !ctober& i< people have been killed and a further @0 "ounded in neighbourhoods ho!e to supporters and opponents of the yrian president over five days# 8he violence bet"een residents is reported to have been the fiercest since rene"ed sectarian tensions spilled over fro! yria. "ith !achine guns. rockets and !ortar rounds being used# ecurity forces have been deployed to return order to the neighbourhoods of 'abal =ohsen and Bab al(8abbaneh# A suicide truck bomb targeted a checkpoint on the outskirts of .ama# Syria# on ) !ctober# leaving at least 1) dead& tate !edia reported that the yrian opposition drove the truck into the checkpoint at the eastern gate to the city# On 2@ October. a car bo!b "as detonated in the )a!ascus province to"n of u5 $adi Barada. killing at least 20 people# 8he blast occurred close to a !os5ue in the opposition held to"n. ho"ever both govern!ent and opposition groups have bla!ed each other for the incident# !n the radar The ;oint mission of the !rganisation for the Prohibition of 2hemical /eapons C!P2/D and the *nited +ations is e<pected to report on the progress of the destruction of yria9s che!ical "eapons progra!!e on 1 -ove!ber# @ra4i Prime Minister +uri al$Maliki is due to meet with President !bama in $ashington on 1 -ove!ber# The Syrian +ational 2oalition is e'pected to convene in @stanbul on 1 +ovember to discuss "hether or not they "ill take part in peace talks in +eneva ne<t !onth# Daniel Taylor

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Polar regions
,ussian prosecutors to drop piracy charges levelled against =reenpeace activists in the Arctic 1) case but will seek hooliganism convictions pokes!an for the 0ussian 6nvestigative Eo!!ittee Fladi!ir =arkin this "eek told the 6tar(8ass ne"s agency that 0ussian prosecutors are to drop the piracy charges levelled against +reenpeace activists in the &rctic 30 case# 8he case "as opened shortly after an 18 epte!ber environ!ental protest staged by +reenpeace activists on the Prira%lo!noye oil rig in the Pechora ea# 8he 23 October state!ent does not. ho"ever. signal the end of the caseL =arkin announced that prosecutors "ere still pursuing a hooliganis! charge. "hich carries a !a<i!u! seven(year prison sentence# *ar fro! "elco!ing the ne"s. +reenpeace representatives fear that the !uch !ore sub2ective charge of hooliganis! "ill be easier to prove in court. !aking a prison sentence for the activists !ore likely# 7o"ever. it is unlikely that the difficulty of proving the original piracy charges "ould have prevented a guilty verdictI in 0ussia. cases of national i!portance such as this are usually deter!ined by politicians rather than 2udges# +iven that 0ussian President Fladi!ir Putin stated his scepticis! to"ards the piracy charges soon after the case began. the ne" develop!ent is likely to be a sign fro! the 6nvestigative Eo!!ittee that it is not intending to act independently but rather to interpret and follo" the presidential lead# 8hose seeking the activists release should thus concentrate their efforts on the president# 4ast "eek9s phone call fro! &ngela =erkel "as a po"erful contribution to such diplo!acy. and should be follo"ed by si!ilar appeals fro! those "orld leaders "ho e<ercise so!e kind of influence over Putin# On the other hand. the tougher approach taken by the )utch authorities could be counterproductive. affording !ore hardline figures in the 6nvestigative Eo!!ittee and parlia!ent the opportunity to e<ploit the narrative of "estern attacks on 0ussian sovereignty# $ith the correct co!bination of do!estic and foreign pressure. the +reenpeace activists could be spared a 0ussian 2ail sentence# !ther developments !fficials from ,ussia3s 9oreign Ministry informed their 7utch partners on 1 !ctober that Moscow will not participate in the case that Amsterdam is preparing for the @nternational Tribunal for the (aw of the Sea& )utch la"yers hope to use the international court to force the release of the )utch( registered &rctic unrise along "ith its cre". the 30 +reenpeace activists "ho are currently a"aiting trial in the northern 0ussian city of =ur!ansk# 0ussian officials assert that according to 0ussia9s 1::C ratification of the ,nited -ations Eonvention of the 4a" of the sea. they have no obligation to take part in settle!ent procedures that are concerned "ith the enforce!ent of its territorial rights# The Arctic 2ouncil Senior Arctic !fficials held their first meeting under 2anada3s Arctic 2ouncil chairmanship in /hitehorse# Bukon# 1$ 1 !ctober& 4eona &glukka5. the Eanadian =inister for the &rctic Eouncil and its current chair. na!ed responsible resource develop!ent. safe &rctic shipping and sustainable circu!polar co!!unities as the Eouncil9s top priorities over the ne<t t"o years of Eanada9s chair!anship#

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@celand3s finance minister# %;arni %enediktsson# e'pressed doubts that a national referendum regarding @celand3s possible entry into the European *nion would take place during his tenure& E, accession talks have stalled since the financial crisis. and "ith 6celand holding several high profile &rctic conferences in the last "eek it is possible that the s!all island nation sees its future not "ith the E, but as a kind of &rctic Bhub9 state# !n the radar The ,oyal *nited Services @nstitute is to hold a one day conference on polar issues entitled Poles &partM on 2: October# The ,ussian Ministry of ,egional 7evelopment is e'pected to publish its ) )3 on 1 -ove!ber# Patrick Sewell trillion rouble CG?1

billionD plan HSocial and economic development of the Arctic 0one of ,ussia for the period up to

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