Implications of Shale Gas Development for Climate Change

Richard G. Newell
Director, Duke University Energy Initiative and Gendell Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University

Workshop on Risks of Unconventional Shale Gas Development, National Academy of Sciences May 31, 2013 | Washington, D.C.

Context
This presentation is part of larger workshop on the risks of shale gas development, covering issues relating to water, air, health, ecology, community, climate, and other impacts. This presentation focuses only on the greenhouse gas impacts of shale gas development. Comprehensive analysis should consider the array of risks relative to other energy sources, as well as the benefits of shale gas development.

Richard Newell, NAS Shale Gas Workshop, May 31, 2013

What questions are at play?

Greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting
Aggregate level. What are the total lifecycle GHG emissions of natural gas use, including both combustion and upstream non-combustion emissions? Sectoral technology level. What are the relative GHG impacts of technologies that use natural gas for electricity generation, transportation, and buildings, compared to competing technologies?

Decisions by producers, policymakers, equipment manufacturers, and corporate and individual purchasers
Which technologies are advantageous to promote/develop/market/purchase taking into account GHG impacts? What issues need to be addressed to improve the GHG profile of technologies based on natural gas? How does natural gas abundance change the baseline outlook for GHG emissions and domestic and international policy responses?

Richard Newell, NAS Shale Gas Workshop, May 31, 2013

Overview
U.S. natural gas use and shale gas development Understanding the potential implications of increased natural gas use on the climate Aggregate effects on U.S. energy and economy Non-combustion GHG emissions from natural gas Sectoral impacts: electricity, residential and commercial buildings, transportation, and industry International implications Policy interactions and implications
Richard Newell, NAS Shale Gas Workshop, May 31, 2013

Relevant existing evidence

Baseline statistics
Emissions accounting (EPA, industry, academia, NGOs) Energy data (U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), industry)

Technology lifecycle analysis

Various studies (source list at close of presentation)

Energy modeling projections

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case: current policies High oil and gas resource case (note also increases oil) Low oil and gas resource case (note also decreases oil) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2011 and 2012 New Policies case Golden Age of Gas case Other modeling studies

Richard Newell, NAS Shale Gas Workshop, May 31, 2013

U.S. natural gas use and shale gas development

Richard Newell, NAS Shale Gas Workshop, May 31, 2013

U.S. natural gas production, distribution, and use

trillion cubic feet in 2011

Image source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2012.
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Natural gas was about 26% of total CO2 and CH4 emissions from U.S. fossil energy in 2011
CH4 4% Energy 8% Oil CO2 39%
2011 fossil energy CO2 and CH4 emissions Natural gas CO2 and CH4

Natural gas CO2 24%

5,553 Tg CO2e 1,469 Tg CO2e (26%)

US GDP Coal CO2 33%

Data source: U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2013.

Richard Newell, NAS Shale Gas Workshop, May 31, 2013

Shale gas is a globally distributed and abundant resource

Image source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Richard Newell, NAS Shale Gas Workshop, May 31, 2013

North America has thus far been the focus for shale gas production

Image source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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U.S. shale gas production has surged and is expected to growth further
U.S. natural gas production trillion cubic feet per year 35 30 25 50% 20 15 24% 10 Alaska 1% 5 0 1990 Tight gas 22% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6% 2030 2035 2040 34% Shale gas History 2012 EIA Projection

7% Non-associated offshore 7% Coalbed methane 10% Associated with oil 16% Non-associated onshore

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Reference case.
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Current and projected U.S. natural gas prices have declined

Henry Hub spot price 2010 dollars per million Btu 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Historical prices

2008 EIA projection

2013 EIA projection

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008 and 2013, Reference case.
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Understanding the potential implications of increased natural gas use on the climate

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Natural gas abundance has both direct and indirect effects on GHG emissions and climate
Increased natural gas resources and production Lower natural gas prices Lower overall energy prices Increased overall energy consumption (+) Policy

Increased natural gas consumption (+) Fuel substitution Decreased coal consumption (-) Decreased oil consumption (-) Decreased renewables & nuclear consumption (-)
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CO2 CH4

Net climate impact ( +/- ?)

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Aggregate effects on U.S. energy economy

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Natural gas is an important energy source, but is only 13% of all U.S. energy expenditures and 1% of GDP
Natural gas 1%

Energy 8%
2010 US GDP Energy expenditures $15 Trillion $1.2 Trillion $159 Billion

US GDP

Natural gas expenditures

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review 2012.

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Effects related to fuel substitution are likely to dominate effects on aggregate energy demand
Aggregate energy demand is driven primarily by
Population growth Overall economic growth and stage of economic development Composition of GDP (e.g., share of services, manufacturing)

Price changes have much bigger effects on fuel substitution than overall energy demand
Economists summarize this responsiveness through demand elasticities measuring the % increase in consumption with respect to a % decrease in price EIA modeling, e.g., which embodies numerous such relationships has: very low elasticity of aggregate energy demand with respect to natural gas price changes (<0.1) low-moderate elasticity of natural gas demand with respect to natural gas prices in the residential/commercial (<0.3) and industrial sectors (<0.5) quite elastic demand for natural gas for electricity generation (1.5 - 2.5)
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Greater U.S. shale gas leads to lower gas prices, more energy use, slightly higher GDP, and slightly lower GHG emissions in EIA projections
Scenario
(for 2040)

Natural gas price

$2011 at Henry Hub

Total energy use

Quadrillion Btu

GDP
Trillion $2005

Cumulative emissions 2010-2040*

billion tonnes CO2e

Reference

7.83
$/mmBtu

108

$27.3

179

Percent difference relative to Reference case

High oil/gas resource Low oil/gas resource

-45% +32%

+3% -1%

+1% -0.1%

-0.4% -0.8%

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 Annual Energy Outlook. Notes: *CO2e emissions computed by augmenting EIA CO2 emission estimates for coal, oil, and natural gas by 3.3%,1.5%, and 12.7% respectively to account for non-combustion CO2 and CH4 emissions, based on EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2013.
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Non-combustion GHG emissions from natural gas

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87% of greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas occur during the combustion phase
million tonnes CO2e 1,400 1,200 Electricity 1,000 800 Combustion 600 400 200 0 CH4 Distribution Transport/storage Commercial Transportation CO2 Processing Field processing Combustion N2O Industrial

Residential

Data source: U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2013.

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Non-combustion emissions from natural gas are variable, but have fallen in the past several years
million tonnes CO2e 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Data source: U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2013.
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CH4

Distribution Transmission/ storage

CH4 CH4 CO2 CO2 CH4

Processing

Field processing

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Upstream non-combustion GHG emissions have fallen per unit of natural gas production
tonnes non-combustion CO2e per million cubic feet of gross withdrawals 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 4 2 6 10 grams CO2e per megajoule 12

-11%
8

Data source: U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2013 and U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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EPA estimates of methane emissions from natural gas systems have changed over time
million tonnes CO2e per year 250

2011 inventory
200

2012 inventory -33%

150

+120%

2013 inventory

100

2010 inventory
50

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Data source: EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.
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Non-combustion GHG emission estimates for shale gas are not consistently lower or higher than conventional gas

Image source: Weber and Clavin 2012.

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Electricity sector

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Most estimates have 40%-50% lower lifecycle GHG emissions for electricity from natural gas than coal
life-cycle emissions for power generation ratio of CO2e emission estimates for electricity generation from natural gas relative to coal 1.6

CH4 CO2 conventional

1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Fulton et al (2011) Howarth et al (2011)* Howarth et al (20 Yr. GWP)*

CH4 CO2 unconventional Higher per kWh emissions than coal Lower per kWh emissions than coal

Skone et al (NETL 2011)

Alvarez et al (2011)

Burnham et al (2011)

Data source: Listed authors. Notes: 100-year global warming potential (GWP) used unless otherwise indicated. *Howarth does not account for differences in combustion efficiency of coal versus gas.
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U.S. electric-sector CO2 emissions have declined 16% since 2005 due to fuel switching
annual net generation, 2005 and 2012 gigawatt hours 2005 2,000 Total net electricity generation (all sources, gigawatt hours) 2005 2012 4,055 4,054

-496 GWh
1,500 2012

1,000

+470 GWh

-12 GWh

500

+138 GWh -87 GWh

Coal Natural gas Nuclear Renewables Petroleum liquids

0
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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Greater shale gas leads to lower prices, fuel switching to gas, and lower electricity GHG emissions in EIA projections
Scenario (for 2040)
Natural gas prices
(delivered for elec.)

Average electricity prices

Electricity consumption

Natural gas consumption for electricity

Coal consumption for electricity

Nuclear and renewables consumption

Cumulative electricity CO2e emissions* 2010-2040

Reference

8.55
$/mmBtu

10.8
/kWh

5,200
GWh

1,600
GWh

1,800
GWh

1,800
GWh

71
billion tonnes

Percent and absolute difference relative to Reference case

High oil and gas Low oil and gas

-39% +26%

-14% +7%

+4.2%
(+200 GWh)

+49%
(+800 GWh)

-21%
(-400 GWh)

-9%
(-200 GWh)

-5% +0.2%

-2.4%
(-100 GWh)

-34%
(-500 GWh)

+4%
(+100 GWh)

+19%
(+300 GWh)

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 Annual Energy Outlook. Notes: *CO2e emissions computed by augmenting EIA CO2 emission estimates for coal, oil, and natural gas by 3.3%,1.5%, and 12.7% respectively to account for non-combustion CO2 and CH4 emissions, based on EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2013.

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Residential and commercial buildings sector

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Natural gas space and water heating tends to have significantly lower GHG emissions than electricity
Space heating*
Natural gas boilers are about 50% less GHG-intensive (CO2 and CH4) than electric heat from natural gas electricity Natural gas-powered heat pumps could further reduce emissions Lower-GHG electricity would improve the electric heat footprint

Water heating**
Natural gas water heating systems in 46 out of 50 states are less CO2 intensive than electric heating systems In most states, natural gas water heating systems are ~60% less CO2 intensive than electric heating systems Variation occurs between states due to electricity fuel mix Lower-GHG electricity would improve the electric water heating footprint
Sources: *Delucchi 2003 and Brenn et al 2010. **Czachorski and Leslie 2009, Gas Technology Institute.

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Greater shale gas leads to lower prices, more energy use, and lower GHG emissions in EIA residential and commercial projections
Scenario (for 2040)
Natural gas prices
(avg. res/ comm price)

Electricity prices
(avg. res/ comm price)

Aggregate res/comm energy* consumption

Natural gas consumption for res/comm

Electricity* consumption for res/comm

Cumulative res/comm CO2e emissions** 2010-2040

Reference

15.13
$/mmBtu

11.7
/kWh

21.8
QBtu

7.9
QBtu

11.8
QBtu

67
billion tonnes

Percent and absolute difference relative to Reference case

High oil and gas Low oil and gas

-22% +18%

-13% +7%

+5%
(+1.1 QBtu)

+7%
(+0.6 QBtu)

+4%
(+0.5 QBtu)

-3% -0.2%

-3%
(-0.6 QBtu)

-4%
(-0.3 Qbtu)

-2%
(-0.2 QBtu)

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 Annual Energy Outlook. Notes: *Does not include electricity-related losses. **CO2e emissions computed by augmenting EIA CO2 emission estimates for coal, oil, and natural gas by 3.3%,1.5%, and 12.7% respectively to account for non-combustion CO2 and CH4 emissions, based on EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2013.
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Transportation sector

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Natural gas passenger vehicles reduce emissions by 10%-30% relative to gasoline

life cycle emissions for passenger vehicles ratio of CO2e emission estimates for CNG relative to gasoline vehicles 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

CH4 CO2

Higher emissions per km than gasoline Lower emissions per km than gasoline

TIAX (2007 for CA)

Alvarez et al (2012)

AEA (for EU 2011)

Burnham et al (2012) Venkatesh et al (2011)

Data source: Listed authors.

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Climate benefits from natural-gas powered heavy vehicles are less clear CH CO CNG
4 2

life cycle emissions for transit buses ratio of CO2e emission estimates for natural gas buses relative to diesel 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Rose et al (2013) TIAX (2007 for TIAX (2007 for CA) CA) Burnham et al (2012) Higher emissions per km than diesel Lower emissions per km than diesel

Upstream CO2 LNG

Alvarez et al (2012)*
*in heavy-duty trucks

Venkatesh et al (2011)

Data source: Listed authors.

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Industrial sector

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Greater shale gas leads to more industrial energy use and slightly higher GHG emissions in EIA projections
Scenario (for 2040)
Industrial natural gas prices Aggregate industrial energy* consumption Natural gas consumption by industry Coal consumption by industry Electricity* consumption by industry Cumulative industrial CO2e emissions** 2010-2040

Reference

9.09
$/mmBtu

28.7
QBtu

10.4
QBtu

1.6
QBtu

3.9
QBtu

52
billion tonnes

Percent and absolute difference relative to reference scenario

High oil and gas Low oil and gas

-39% +28%

+7%
(+2.1 QBtu)

+18%
(+1.8 QBtu)

-3%
(-0.05 QBtu)

+2%
(+0.1 QBtu)

+0.3% -1.4%

-4%
(-1.1 QBtu)

-8%
(-0.9 QBtu)

-5%
(-0.1 QBtu)

-1%
(-0.02 QBtu)

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 Annual Energy Outlook. Notes: *Does not include electricity-related losses. **CO2e emissions computed by augmenting EIA CO2 emission estimates for coal, oil, and natural gas by 3.3%,1.5%, and 12.7% respectively to account for non-combustion CO2 and CH4 emissions, based on EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2013.

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International implications

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Projections for global natural gas use are rising

primary global natural gas demand billion cubic meters 5,500

5,000

3% lower CO2 emissions than 2011 New Policies scenario in 2035

2011 Golden Age of Gas scenario

4,500

4,000

2012 New Policies scenario 2011 New Policies scenario

3,500

3,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Data source: International Energy Agency 2011 and 2012 World Energy Outlook and 2011 Golden Age of Gas report.
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U.S. coal exports have increased, but represent a fairly small share of global trade
global coal trade million metric tons 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 -

4%
2009

5%
2010 U.S. Rest of world

7%
2011

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and the World Coal Association. Calculated as U.S. net exports as a share of global coal trade.
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Greater shale gas resources lead to lower U.S. coal production and negligible effects on coal exports in EIA projections
U.S. coal production and gross exports million short tons 1,200

Reference case production -159 M tons High oil/gas case production

1,000

800

600

400

200

High oil/gas case exports Reference case exports

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

+14 M tons
2040

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 2013 Annual Energy Outlook.
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LNG tends to have higher GHGs than domestic natural gas for electricity, but still lower than coal
life cycle emissions for electricity generation ratio of CO2e emission estimates for electricity from natural gas relative to coal 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Skone et al (2011 NETL) Venkatesh et al (2011) NG
Data source: Listed authors.
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Higher emissions per kWh than coal Lower emissions per kWh than coal

Jaramillo et al (2007)

LNG

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Policy interactions and implications

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How does abundant natural gas interact with and affect climate/energy policy?
Lower natural gas prices make the cost of some policies lower and other policies higher
lowering the cost of options with relatively low GHG intensity will tend to make achievement of climate goals less costly e.g., in current baseline scenarios no new US coal power is built in part due to low natural gas prices; as a result, regulations that would regulate new coal plant GHG emissions have no apparent impact e.g., under an emissions constraint, lower natural prices lower the cost of meeting emission targets and (by design) do not affect emissions (e.g., EIA AEO 2013, Jacoby et al. 2011, Brown and Krupnick 2010) in the context of renewable energy standards, however, lower gas prices will tend to increase the incremental cost of maintaining those standards

With substantial long-term GHG reductions, natural gas would need to incorporate carbon capture and storage at reasonable cost to continue as a competitive option
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Concluding thoughts
The GHG emissions intensity of natural gas has fallen; further reductions in non-combustion emissions and improved combustion efficiency could further this trend
upstream emission estimates have fluctuated, but not sufficiently to alter the main conclusions

Thus far, shale gas has lead to decreased GHG emissions by lowering prices and displacing more coal than renewables/nuclear Using current lifecycle GHG estimates, natural gas tends to lower GHG emissions relative to coal electric power, gasoline personal vehicles, and electricity for space/water heating Natural gas abundance alone will probably not have a substantial effect on future GHG emissions; policy is the key factor
but could influence relevant policy in ways that have a substantial effect
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Sources

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Sources
Jaramillo, P., Griffin, Michael W., Matthews, Scott H., 2007. Comparative life-cycle air emissions of coal, domestic natural gas, LNG, and SNG for electricity generation. Environmental Science and Technology 41, 6290-6296. Lu, X., Salovaara, J., McElroy, M.B., 2012. Implications of the Recent Reductions in Natural Gas Prices for Emissions of CO2 from the US Power Sector. Environmental Science & Technology 46, 3014-3021. National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2011. Life cycle greenhouse gas inventory of natural gas extraction, delivery, and electricity production. DOE/NETL-2011/1522. Paltsev, S., Jacoby, H.D., Reilly, J.M., Ejaz, Q.J., Morris, J., OSullivan, F., Rausch, S., Winchester, N., Kragha, O., 2011. The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade. Energy Policy 39, 5309-5321. Rose, L., Hussain, M., Ahmed, S., Malek, K., Costanzo, R., Kjeang, E., 2013. A comparative life cycle assessment of diesel and compressed natural gas powered refuse collection vehicles in a Canadian city. Energy Policy 52, 453-461. TIAX LLC, 2007. Full fuel cycle assessment: well-to-wheels energy inputs, emissions, and water impacts. Consultant report for California Energy Commission. U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011. World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States. U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2012. Annual Energy Review. DOE/EIA-0384(2011). U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013. Annual Energy Outlook. DOE/EIA-0383ER(2013.) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2013. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2011. Washington, D.C. EPA 430-R-13-001. Venkatesh, A., Jaramillo, P., Griffin, W.M., Matthews, H.S., 2012. Implications of changing natural gas prices in the United States electricity sector for SO2, NOx and life cycle GHG emissions. Environmental Research Letters 7. Venkatesh, A., Jaramillo, P., Griffin, W.M., Matthews, H.S., 2011. Uncertainty in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from United States natural gas end-uses and its effect on policy. Environmental Science and Technology 45, 8182-8189. Weber, C.L., Clavin, C., 2012. Life Cycle Carbon Footprint of Shale Gas: Review of Evidence and Implications. Environmental Science & Technology 46, 5688-5695. World Coal Association, 2013. Coal Statistics. URL http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/.
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For more information

Duke University Energy Initiative www.energy.duke.edu energyinitiative@duke.edu 919-613-1305

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