1

? ?

1
1.1
l-1
GDP GDP

1.2
1-1 :
?

XX X

40
1-6 ()

5%

1820
1-7 1820-1870 GDP

0.5%: 1870-1950

1.1%;1950-1998

2.1%
1-7 178 1820
3 1998
19:1

1820

1820
1820

1.3
1776

2 000

200
) 20

??
??
2

(PlatoThe Republic)

2.1
2.2
2.3
2. 1 :

(Sylvania) :
(Republic of Freedonia)?
2.2

:

2
: 3 :; 4
2
3

(production function)

()
()
2.3 ?

(observational)(experimental)

2. 4

: ;

:
( )

2
?

3.1
:

3.2

(marginal product)
1 (diminishing marginal
product) : ()
1

rental rate)
3.3

(Robert Solow)
1956

I ;D

V KI-D
i d
:
V k=i-d

() :
i y
:
d k

V k=y- k
y :
V kf(k)- k (3 .1)

(3.1) f(k)
k f(k) k
f(k)= k
3-4 3.1) 3-l 3.1)
f(k) k 3-4 f(k)
(steady-state) k ss
k ss

3.3

:?
?

 37

:
?
(
3-7 :

(convergence toward the steady state)

3.4

;
11
:
: (endogenous variables)
(exogenous variables)

3-9

3.5

()()
4.1

1798 (Essay on the Principle of Population)

19
:

4.2
?
:)
;

3
3

(capital dilute)

4-1
3

4.3
(demographic transition)

(mortality transition)
(fertility transition)

(net rate of
reproductionNRR)NRR

4.4
:
1-12

:
1975

: :

4. 5

5
5.1
5-1 150 150
1950
2000 1.8% 2000-2050 0.9%;2050-2100
0. 2%()
2200 110

: ?
?

(
)

:
2050

(demographic momentum)

5.2


GDP

GDP

(composition effect)
5.3

( human capital )
6.1

6.2

6-1

(return to education): 1

college premium)

6-9( ) 6-10( ) 6-2

6.3 ?

(
)

(externality)

6.4

7
(Productivity)
:
1.
2.?
3.?
4. ?

7. 1
7-1 2
7-1 1 2 1
y1 2 y2 y1>y2

7.2

:;

43% 57%
7.3

A ;

a k + (1 a ) h :

A y a k (1 a) h

growth
accounting

 2.34%: 1.
79%
7.4

)
;

;
;
8.1
yAkh A
(y A k ;h )

:
(Joseph Schumpeter)
( creative destruction)

8.2

 (8.3): L
A u r )

8.3

tacitknowledge

8.4

9.1
18

9. 2
(technology production function)

(fishing out effect)

(fished out)

;
(
)
9.3
:
1:
2:

1
2

;
:
()

William Baumol))
(cost disease)

9. 4

 10

??
10.1
:
;

A=TE
A ;T ;E

10.2 :

1910

?
)

1949-1994

(featherbedding)

10. 3

misallocation among firms

(technology blocking)
10.4

11
11.1

 (autarky)

(trade)(flow of factors
of production)
(law of one price)

GDP
(GNP)

11.2

() ;

11.3

GNP

savings
retention coefficient) 1

1
1 1
0
11.4

11.5

: (

:WTO

11.6

12
12.1

(market failure)
income
redistribution

20
12.2

12. 3

kleptocracy)

12. 4

:
;

12.5

13
13. 1 :

1955 (Simon Kuznets)

13. 2

13.3

13. 4 :
(economic mobility)

13.5

14
14.1

social capability) (Moses Abramovitz)

14.2

14.3

14.4

15
15.1

(spillovers)

15.2

15.3

(natural capital)

;
15.4

16
16.1

(nonrenewable resource)

(renewable resource)

(resource intensity)

16.2
(sustainable development)

( GDP green gross domestic product)

GDP

16.3

(enviromental Kuznets curve)

U

16. 4

17
17.1 ?

17.2

?
?
150 20

?
50

21