The weekly briefing | 25 November 2013

Political and security risk updates

Africa: entral !frican "epublic #on verge of genocide$ as %rance steps up pressure on &N to act' Americas: Bolivian President (vo )orales orders double *ristmas bonuses as part of electoral campaign' Asia and Pacific: *ina$s contribution to t*e P*ilippines *as prompted speculation over t*eir role as a superpo+er' Europe: &kraine delays signing association agreement +it* t*e (uropean &nion' Middle East: ,ouble suicide bombing targets -ranian embassy in Beirut. /ebanon' Polar regions: &0 ,epartment of ,efence releases ne+ !rctic strategy'

!frica
Central African Republic on !erge of genocide" as #rance steps up pressure on $% to act -nternational pressure to *alt t*e escalating violence in t*e entral !frican "epublic 1 !"2 is increasing' %ormer colonial po+er %rance is urging t*e &nited Nations to aut*orise a stronger peacekeeping force in t*e country. supported by %renc* troops' On 21 November. in t*e strongest statement on t*e issue so far. t*e %renc* foreign minister. /aurent %abius. stressed t*e need for urgent action' (arlier last +eek. t*e &0 0tate ,epartment also argued t*at !" +as in a #pre3genocidal situation$' onditions in !" *ave progressively +orsened since t*e 0eleka. a group of )uslim rebel movements. sei4ed t*e capital Bangui. overt*ro+ing *ristian president %ran5ois Bo4i46' 7*en )ic*el ,8otodia took office as t*e first )uslim president in t*e ma8ority *ristian !" after Bo4i469s fall. *e :uickly lost control over t*e 0eleka' ;*e ensuing anarc*y *as seen +idespread violence bet+een )uslim rebels and *ristian militias. +it* t*e most recent escalations and attacks on civilians raising concerns about et*nic violence and potential genocide' ;*is *as been most pronounced in t*e +est of t*e country. especially in t*e Bossangoa region' Outside po+ers9 concerns. *ig*lig*ted by t*e %renc* statement. focus on t*e prospect of !" becoming a failed state similar to 0omalia. used as a *aven for e<tremist groups in an increasingly unstable region flooded +it* +eapons' !frican media *ave reported t*at !" aut*orities *ave been in contact +it* =osep* >ony. t*e /ord$s "esistance !rmy leader +anted by t*e -nternational riminal ourt. t*oug* reports are conflicted about +*et*er >ony is in fact *iding in t*e country and planning to surrender'

Open Briefing | 1

;*e e<isting regional peacekeeping force of 2.500 *as been unable to *alt t*e intercommunal violence' ;*e !frican3led peacekeeping force +ill e<pand to 3.?00 troops in ,ecember. coming under !frican &nion control. +it* t*e &nited 0tates pledging @A0m to t*e military effort' %rance maintains a A003strong force guarding t*e international airport but calls for a muc* larger international force are likely to furt*er increase given t*e dire situation in t*e country' ,espite stressing t*e urgency of t*e situation and its readiness to send up to 1.000 troops. %rance. *o+ever. remains +ary of becoming involved in !" to t*e same e<tent as in )ali. +*ere t*ey are struggling to contain -slamist insurgents' 'ther de!elopments (n )ibya* the head of +engha,i security* Colonel Abdallah al-.aati* narrowly sur!i!ed an assassination attempt on 1/ %o!ember0 Bis motorcade +as targeted by a bomb in t*e al3Badaek area' ;*e attack t*reatens *opes for stability in t*e city. +*ic* *ad seen relative calm after t*e latest deployment of more security forces and a s*ift in popular support to+ards t*e army' )ean+*ile. it is *oped t*at t*e departure of militias from t*e capital +ill *elp restore a measure of stability follo+ing last +eek9s escalation of fig*ting in ;ripoli and concerns over lack of government control' Mo,ambi1ue2s ruling party* #relimo* is leading the polls after initial municipal election results0 (lections in 53 municipalities on 20 November. boycotted by t*e main opposition party. "enamo. sa+ t*e t*ird3largest party. t*e )o4ambi:ue ,emocratic )ovement 1),)2. make significant gains' ,espite concerns t*at "enamo9s boycott +ould trigger violence around t*e elections. incidents remained isolated and +ere contained by police using tear gas and rubber bullets' -n t*e capital and ot*er urban centres in particular. +*ere opposition against President Cuebu4a9s party is most vocal. t*e results appear to signify an end to decades of party duopoly' Bo+ever. observers remain concerned about t*e potential for violence and protests' .e!eral African countries ha!e strengthened their ties with 3ulf .tates during the third African-Arab summit held in 4uwait on &5 and &1 %o!ember0 -n addition to e<pressing t*eir commitment to countering terrorism in t*e region. efforts for closer economic cooperation sa+ >u+ait. already t*e largest !rab investor in !frica. pledge a furt*er @1 billion over a five3year period' 0everal !frican countries. including &ganda. )auritania. )o4ambi:ue and 0ierra /eone. also signed economic agreements +it* 0audi !rabia' !lt*oug* (t*iopia +as also included. negotiations +ere clouded by t*e recent controversy over t*e treatment of (t*iopian migrants in 0audi !rabia' )oreover. talks bet+een (t*iopia and (gypt about (t*iopia9s plans to dam t*e Nile failed' 'n the radar Military trial of 6emocratic Republic of the Congo soldiers o!er mass murder and rape in &51& set to continue in 3oma0 .udan e7pects food shortages follo+ing devaluation of t*e 0udanese pound and a s*ortage of foreign currency' .outh Africa will continue to re!iew its bilateral in!estment treaties* +*ic* *ave already led to termination of agreements +it* several (uropean countries' $% plans to repatriate up to 855*555 of the .omali refugees in 4enya are to continue despite concerns about 0omalia9s readiness'

Open Briefing | &

!mericas
+oli!ian President E!o Morales orders double Christmas bonuses as part of electoral campaign On 20 November. Bolivian President (vo )orales issued a decree to double *ristmas bonuses' -t concerns t*e 300.000 public sector employees but it is still unclear +*et*er it +ill also apply to t*e private sector as +ell' ompulsory *ristmas bonuses are common in /atin !merica but )orales announcement doubles its value for affected Bolivians' ;*e measure is designed to continue as long as Bolivia$s annual C,P gro+t* e<ceeds A'5D' !ccording to -nternational )onetary %und pro8ections. Bolivia$s output gro+t* s*ould be 5'AD in 2013 and 5D in 201A' ritics argue t*at t*e decree is demagogic and *inders efforts to attract investment and to curb inflation' 7*ile t*e government *as boasted t*e merits of its economic policies. e<perts point to t*e rise in t*e price of Bolivian e<ports. particularly minerals and gas. as drivers of t*e current gro+t*' ! controversial ruling of t*e Bolivian 0upreme ourt in !pril 2013 aut*orises )orales to run for a t*ird term' ;*e enforced bonus pay increase can be seen as part of )orales electoral campaign for t*e ,ecember 201A presidential election' Bis announcement is aimed at increasing support for *is campaign among t*e Bolivian middle class' -n t*e run3up to t*e elections. )orales is likely to proclaim furt*er unort*odo< economic policies' 'ther de!elopments Michelle +achelet has won the first round of the Chilean presidential election with :/; of the !ote0 ;*e candidate of t*e centre3left Ne+ )a8ority coalition attracted almost t+ice as many votes as *er closest rival. (velyn )att*ei. from t*e centre3rig*t !lliance' ;*e second round of t*e presidential election +ill take place on 15 ,ecember' Colombian President <uan Manuel .antos launched a re-election bid on &5 %o!ember0 ;*e ot*er main contender for t*e role is Escar -vFn Guluaga from t*e &ribe ,emocratic entre party 1& ,2' ;*e & , party opposes any peace settlement +it* %!" ' Protests against the go!ernment took place across cities in =ene,uela on &9 %o!ember0 ;*e protests +ere led by opposition candidate Benri:ue apriles and blamed President Nicolas )aduro for rising inflation and t*e s*ortage of basic goods' 'n the radar #urther opposition protests are likely across =ene,uela in t*e run up to local elections' 6isruption and protests are e7pected in Chile as public sector +orkers plan to *old a H23*our nation+ide strike from 25 November' #E%AE. students" union to hold nationwide rallies across Paraguay on 25 November to demand increased funding for education' Anti-go!ernment protests are e7pected to cause disruption in ma>or cities in ?aiti0

Open Briefing | 9

!sia and Pacific

China"s contribution to the Philippines has prompted speculation o!er their role as a superpower ;*e si4e of *ina$s aid contribution to t*e typ*oon3*it P*ilippines *as proven controversial' %rom an initial @100.000 to a donation of @1'? million in supplies and t*e services of an emergency medical relief team. international media *ave lambasted t*e si4e of *ina$s contribution. +*ic* is even outdone by t*e @2'H million donation from -kea$s c*aritable foundation' &nsurprisingly. *inese media *ave accused t*e international media of double standards and defended t*e level of *ina$s contribution' )any *ave speculated t*at Bei8ing find it difficult to keep *umanitarian aid and geopolitical considerations separate' -n particular. many *ave *ig*lig*ted *ina$s longstanding territorial dispute +it* t*e P*ilippines over oil3ric* islands in t*e 0out* *ina 0ea and Bei8ing$s distaste at )anila$s alliance +it* t*eir regional rivals in 7as*ington' Bei8ing +as enraged by )anila9s decision to send t*e territorial dispute to international arbitration at t*e &nited Nations and by t*eir decision to allo+ &0 +ars*ips to be based at %ilipino naval ports. including t*e to3be3developed Oyster Bay facility only 100 miles from t*e disputed 0pratly -slands' 0uc* speculation is *ig*ly damaging to *ina$s #soft po+er$ and t*eir ability to easily conduct friendly diplomatic and economic influence over ot*er states' ;*e criticism in t*e international media and on social net+orks *as not *elped *ina$s reputation as an uncaring neig*bour un+illing to *elp t*ose +*o t*ey do not see as +ort*y allies' 'ther de!elopments (n the latest confrontation o!er the .enkaku@6iaoyu islands* China has demarcated an air-defence identification ,one" o!er the surrounding territory0 *ina$s defence ministry says t*at any non3 commercial aircraft entering t*is airspace must comply +it* instruction or face #emergency defensive measures$' =apan$s foreign ministry *as argued t*at t*is is a dangerous unilateral escalation of an already tense situation' -n 2012. t*e =apanese government boug*t t*ree of t*e islands from t*e >uri*ara family. +*ic* sparked mass protests in *inese cities' ;*e issue *as become a rallying point for nationalists in bot* countries and it is difficult to see *o+ eit*er +ill back do+n in t*e current climate' (ndonesian President .usilo +ambang Audhoyono says that ties with Australia ha!e been damaged by re!elations by the whistleblower Edward .nowden0 0no+den revealed t*at anberra *ad listened in on t*e p*one calls of top3level -ndonesian officials' Iud*oyono added t*at =akarta +ould revie+ cooperation bet+een t*eir t+o countries' ;*e !ustralian Prime )inister ;ony !bbott e<pressed regret but refused to offer an apology for #reasonable intelligence3gat*ering operations$' !ustralia and -ndonesia are key trading partners and allies but relations are already strained due to -ndonesia$s position as a stopping point for asylum seekers travelling to !ustralia' %epal"s powerful Maoist leader and former prime minister Pushpa 4amal 6ahal Bknown as PrachandaC has re>ected the national election after his party appeared to be losing on 1D %o!ember0 Political deadlock is not ne+ since t*e )aoists ceased using violence seven years ago after a decade3long civil +ar' 0i< successive governments *ave failed to forge a constitution for a ne+ republic' Neig*bours -ndia and *ina appear increasingly concerned t*at Nepal *as become a *aven for militants and criminal gangs' 7it*out effective political reform. t*is is likely to continue' Open Briefing | :

'n the radar Members of the $. ?ouse of Representati!es will fly to Russia to meet with whistleblower Edward .nowden to clarify allegations t*at !ustralia attempted to tap t*e p*ones of top -ndonesian officials' The <apanese go!ernment continues to push for legislation that would curtail public access to information and punis* +*istleblo+ers'

(urope
$kraine delays signing association agreement with the European $nion &kraine announced on 21 November t*at it +ould not be signing an association and +ide3ranging trade agreement +it* t*e (& at t*e (astern Partners*ip in /it*uania t*is +eek' ;*e &krainian parliament re8ected si< draft la+s t*at +ould *ave led to t*e release of former prime minister Iulia ;ymos*enko' ;*e release of ;ymos*enko +as an essential condition for t*e (& to move for+ard +it* t*e association agreement' %ollo+ing &kraine$s announcement. t*e (& e<pressed disappointment and t*e (& (nlargement ommissioner. 0tefan %ule. cancelled a trip to &kraine. +*ic* +as to occur before t*e (astern Partners*ip in Jilnius on 2K32L November' On 22 November. &krainian Prime )inister )ykola !4arov claimed t*at t*e decision not to sign t*e deal +as motivated by economics. adding t*at &kraine *ad not received any -)% guarantees t*at it +ould be compensated for any closure of markets in t*e )osco+3led ustoms &nion and t*e -)% *ad imposed overly *ars* terms for an aid package' ;*ousands of protesters *ave been rallying across &kraine since 22 November to protest t*e &krainian government$s decision' )a8or protests *ave been *eld in >iev. /viv and /u*ansk and activists say t*at t*ey +ill continue to protest for several days' "iot police *ave been deployed but t*e protests remain peaceful at present' ;*e opposition leader !rseniy Iatsenyuk accused t*e &krainian president of #selling out to )osco+ in e<c*ange for cas* and ensuring in *is re3election in 2015$' !4arov claimed t*at t*e postponement of t*e agreement did not alter &kraine$s overall development strategy and t*at &kraine is no+ looking to set up a 8oint commission to promote relations bet+een &kraine. t*e (& and "ussia' "ussia *as been accused of pressurising &kraine not to sign t*e agreement. as it +ants &kraine to 8oin "ussia. Belarus. >a4ak*stan and "ussia in t*e ustoms &nion' &kraine depends on imports of "ussian gas and according to t*e supplier Ca4prom. &kraine *ad recently fallen be*ind +it* payments' Cas crises in 200? and 200L *ad severe economic and political impacts on &kraine' Bo+ever. "ussian President Jladimir Putin in turn accused t*e (& of blackmailing &kraine to sign t*e association deal by refusing to accept &kraine$s decision to postpone t*e agreement'

Open Briefing | 8

'ther de!elopments 'n 1D %o!ember* the .panish ambassador in )ondon* #ederico Trillo* was summoned to the #oreign F Commonwealth 'ffice to e7plain why a .panish state sur!eillance ship had entered 3ibraltan territorial waters on 1/ %o!ember0 ;*e vessel +as accompanied by t*ree Cuardia ivil boats and came +it*in 250 metres of t*e entrance to t*e Cibraltar Barbour' ;*e 0panis* boats ignored re:uests to leave for 22 *ours and +ere eventually c*allenged by t*e "oyal Navy' ! Britis* foreign office minister announced t*at t*e "oyal Navy +as revie+ing its presence in Cibraltar' ;*e latest increase in tensions bet+een t*e &nited >ingdom and 0pain comes days after t*e (uropean ommission ruled t*at t*e strict controls imposed by 0pain on t*e border *ad not broken (& la+' Bo+ever. t*e ommission did recommend closer cooperation bet+een t*e t+o countries to ease congestion at t*e borders and said t*at it +ould revisit t*e dispute in si< mont*s' 'n 1/ %o!ember* a gunman attacked the Paris head1uarters of the newspaper Liberation and the head1uarters of the bank .ociete 3enerale0 One victim +as seriously in8ured at t*e first attack at t*e ne+spaper' On 20 November. t*e %renc* -nterior )inister. )anuel Jalls. announced t*at police *ad detained t*e s*ooter. !bdel*akim ,ek*ar' !ccording to reports. t*e police found ,ek*ar in an underground car park in a Paris suburb in a semi3conscious state after an apparent suicide attempt' ;*e gunman *ad been imprisoned in 1LLK for *is involvement in a s*ootout +it* police. in +*ic* five people +ere killed' 'n the radar #uel po!erty protesters set to hold demonstrations on &E %o!ember at the head1uarters of si7 +ritish energy firms including Britis* Cas and npo+er' The 3reek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders are to meet on &8 %o!ember in t*e buffer 4one to discuss peace talks' The Eastern Partnership summit will be held in =ilnius* )ithuania* on 2K32L November' The ConfederaGHo 3eral dos Trabalhadores Portugueses BC3TPC plan to stage anti-austerity demonstrations across Portugal on 2? November'

)iddle (ast
6ouble suicide bombing targets (ranian embassy in +eirut* )ebanon On 1L November. t+o suicide bomb attacks took place at t*e gates of t*e -ranian embassy in sout*ern Beirut. a distinctly 0*i$ite district of t*e city' ;*e double3tap style attack claimed t*e lives of 23 people. including si< -ranian officials. and in8ured almost 150 ot*ers' "eports suggest t*at t*e initial attack +as used to damage t*e perimeter +all of t*e compound and t*e second +as used to cause as muc* p*ysical damage as possible' ;*e 0unni 8i*adist group !bdulla* !44am Brigade *as claimed responsibility for t*e attack' ;*e al3Maeda3linked group *as previously issued t*reats against 0*ia communities t*at support President Bas*ar al3!ssad$s government in 0yria'

Open Briefing | E

;*e targeting of t*e -ranian embassy in Beirut signifies an escalation in sectarian violence t*at *as spread t*roug*out t*e region as a result of t*e 0yrian civil +ar' ;*e attack comes one +eek after Be4bolla*$s support of a 0yrian military offensive *ad pus*ed back anti3!ssad opposition in suburbs of ,amascus and !leppo' !ssistance from -ran 1in an advisory and training capacity2 and /ebanon$s Be4bolla* 1in combat2 is *elping to reclaim opposition *eld territories in 0yria' ;*e attack on t*e -ranian embassy may signify an alternative approac* by opposition fig*ters in 0yria' 0uppressed militarily. soft targets linked to !ssad may be singled out' 0unni 8i*adist groups operating in 0*ia dominated -ra:. /ebanon and 0yria *ave links to al3Maeda and t*e attack in Beirut resembles t*e tactics employed by 8i*adist groups in -ra:' /ebanese 0unni and 0*i$ite communities *ave taken part in running gun battles and targeted bombings in Beirut and ;ripoli *ave occurred over t*e past year' ;actics employed by 0unni groups do not re:uire large numbers of fig*ters and are able to single out soft targets. suc* as public spaces and buildings. for revenge attacks' ;*e spillover from t*e +ar in 0yria *as ramifications t*roug*out t*e region and /ebanon is in danger of becoming a sectarian battleground' (scalation in /ebanese sectarian violence is likely in t*e coming mont*s +it* 0unni 8i*adist groups increasing operations against soft targets' 'ther de!elopments 'n &5 %o!ember* 11 Egyptian soldiers were killed by a car bomb close to the town of el-Arish0 "eports *ave emerged t*at t*e soldiers +ere travelling by bus +*en t*e e<plosives +ere detonated remotely' ;*is is t*e latest attack on security forces in t*e 0inai Peninsula. +*ere t*e security situation *as been unstable since t*e removal of )o*amed )orsi in =uly 2013' Jiolence in 0inai *as increased since t*e military escalated its counter3insurgency efforts in 0eptember' ;*e -slamist militant group !nsar Bayt al3 )a:dis claim to *ave carried out t*e failed assassination attempt on t*e interior minister. )o*amed -bra*im. in 0eptember' ;*e military$s *eavy3*anded tactics and influ< of +eapons in t*e region from /ibya +ill likely increase t*e fre:uency of suc* attacks in future' Crowded .hia neighbourhoods were targeted by se!eral bombs in +aghdad on &5 %o!ember0 "eports claim t*at seven bombs +ere detonated in t*e predominantly 0*ia neig*bour*oods of !mil. !4amiya*. Burriya*. >arrada. 0adria. 0*aab and ;obc*i' -ra:i security and medical reports place t*e deat* toll at bet+een 23 and 2K' Bo+ever. media reports suggest t*at t*e deat* toll could be muc* *ig*er and -ra: Body ount place t*e number of victims closer to ?0' ! furt*er car bomb +as detonated on 21 November at a market in 0adiya. killing at least 25 people' ;*e rising violence t*roug*out 2013 *as reac*ed levels not seen since 200K' %ig*ters linked to al3Maeda *ave recruited frustrated 0unni minorities to target t*e 0*ia3 dominated government and employ coordinated bomb attacks' -t is likely t*at levels of violence +ill increase a*ead of elections early ne<t year'

Open Briefing | I

'n &1 %o!ember* almost &*855 Afghanistan elders and political leaders gathered in 4abul to debate a +ilateral .ecurity Agreement B+.AC with Jashington0 ;*e draft proposal. if agreed upon. +ill allo+ a &0 military presence to remain in !fg*anistan beyond t*e 201A +it*dra+al of N!;O troops' &nder t*e agreement. t*e &nited 0tates +ill be provided +it* nine military facilities. including t*e >anda*ar !ir %orce Base. and some 15.000 &0 troops +ould remain in !fg*anistan' ;*e &0 military +ould continue to e:uip and advise !fg*an soldiers and security forces in t*e fig*t against t*e ;aliban but *as ruled out any &0 led combat missions #unless ot*er+ise mutually agreed$' !fg*ans are concerned by t*e permission t*e agreement gives to t*e &nited 0tates to prosecute any of its o+n forces accused of crimes in !fg*anistan' !n accord to allo+ immunity from local prosecution +as unacceptable to t*e -ra:i government in 2011 and prompted t*e +it*dra+al of all &0 troops from t*at country' !fg*an President Bamid >ar4ai is e<pected to sign t*e B0! but it is not clear +*en. +it* >ar4ai *imself seeking a delay until after elections in !pril 201A' 'n the radar Turkish #oreign Minister Ahmet 6a!otuglu will !isit (ran on 2? and 2H November to discuss t*e 0yrian crisis' A $%.C briefing by special ad!isor <amal +enomar on political transition in Aemen is e7pected on &I %o!ember0 ;*e briefing is due despite ongoing tensions and t*e unlikely conclusion of t*e National ,ialogue onference' Aemen will celebrate (ndependence 6ay on 95 %o!ember* marking t*e +it*dra+al of Britis* troops from t*e port of !den in 1L?H'

Polar regions
$. 6epartment of 6efence releases new Arctic strategy ;*e &0 ,epartment of ,efence 1,o,2 publis*ed an !rctic strategy document on 22 November outlining a strategic vision for !merica$s future role in t*e !rctic' ;*e goal of &0 strategy s*ould be. according to t*e document. to ensure t*e !rctic is #a secure and stable region +*ere &'0' national interests are safeguarded. t*e &'0' *omeland is protected. and nations +ork cooperatively to address c*allenges$' ;*is goal is to be realised by carrying out t*e strategy$s eig*t3point plan for future &0 policy in t*e region' ;*is plan envisages national defence. t*e preservation of t*e freedom of t*e seas. t*e development of infrastructure. and t*e need for close cooperation and consultation +it* ot*er !rctic states and international bodies suc* as t*e !rctic ouncil' ;*e document is presented as t*e defence department$s contribution to t*e National 0trategy for t*e !rctic "egion publis*ed by t*e 7*ite Bouse in )ay 2013' 7*ile t*e ,o,$s strategy takes t*e e<pected posture on t*e need to #detect. deter. prevent and defeat t*reats to t*e *omeland$. t*e document is unusual in its repeated emp*asis of t*e need for cooperation +it* ot*er international actors as a key part of t*e strategy rat*er t*an simply an e<pected diplomatic overture' ,efence 0ecretary *uck Bagel. speaking about t*e publication at t*e Balifa< -nternational 0ecurity %orum in anada on 22 November. described cooperation +it* t*e ot*er !rctic states and t*e !rctic ouncil as t*e cornerstone of t*e strategy'

Open Briefing | /

Opportunities for cooperation are greater in t*e !rctic mainly as a result of its position as an area t*at is. in President Barack Obama$s +ords. #peaceful. stable. and free of conflict$' ;*ese opportunities are +elcomed +it* suc* ent*usiasm by t*e ,o, partly for practical reasonsN planned cuts to t*e department$s budget may. according to t*e document. #delay or deny needed investment in !rctic capabilities$' ;*e strategy aims to close t*ese gaps by reliance on partners in t*e region' 7*atever t*e 8ustification for t*is approac*. t*e pursuit of closer cooperation is to be +elcomed by t*ose +*o desire a peaceful !rctic' !lso to be +elcomed are t*e conclusions t*at political r*etoric about competition for resources s*ould be discouraged +*erever possible. and t*at t*e &nited 0tates s*ould avoid aggressive moves in t*e !rctic in order to *ead off t*e possibility of a dangerous arms race in +*at. so far. *as been one of t*e least militarised regions in t*e +orld' ;*e ,o,$s strategy +isely refrained from directly mentioning "ussia in t*e document. +*ic* *as made increasing military and ideological claims on t*e !rctic. instead reac*ing out to its !rctic neig*bour +it* an invitation to participate in bilateral and multilateral e<ercises and s*are military intelligence' #urther de!elopments Russian authorities ha!e released on bail all the 3reenpeace acti!ists detained in the Arctic 95 case* +it* t*e e<ception of !ustralian activist olin "ussell' Creenpeace paid t+o million roubles 1@?1.0002 in bail for eac* activist$s release' !ccording to "ussian ne+s agency "-!3Novosti. >remlin *ief of 0taff 0ergei -vanov *as suggested t*at once visa tec*nicalities *ave been overcome t*e activists +ill be free to leave t*e country' Creenpeace la+yer !nton Beneslavski said -vanov$s comments s*ould be treated +it* caution given t*at t*e legal process is still under+ay' ;*e decision to release t*e activists on bail may indicate a +illingness of t*e "ussian aut*orities to back do+n under international pressure. +*ic* increased from its already very *ig* level t*is +eek +it* t*e 22 November ruling from t*e -nternational ;ribunal on t*e /a+ for t*e 0ea t*at "ussia must release t*e !rctic 0unrise icebreaker and all of its 303 strong cre+' ;*us "ussian President Jladimir Putin told 8ournalists at "-!3Novosti on 21 November t*at t*e activists s*ould be granted #clemency$' The Arctic (nstitute reported on &5 %o!ember that the #innish go!ernment has appointed an ad!isory board to coordinate #innish acti!ities in the Arctic and implement its recent Arctic strategy0 ;*e ne+ !rctic !dvisory Board *as a t+o3year mandate and +ill be c*aired by Olli3Pekka Beinonen' Clobal political economists see %inland$s motivation to increase its focus to+ards t*e !rctic as an attempt to profit from its e<pertise and tec*nological innovations in suc* fields as arctic construction. arctic environmental tec*nology and t*e development of !rctic infrastructure as +ell as !rctic transportation and navigation in ice3covered +aters' Russian geological sur!eys ha!e allegedly re!ealed significant new oil resources in its Arctic waters* according to t*e federal sub3soil agency. "osnedra' ;*e agency summed up its geological e<ploration activities in 2013 in a press release publis*ed on 1L November. stating t*at #a significant number of perspective oil and gas ob8ects *ave been made ready for inclusion in t*e federal licensing programme$' 0tate energy firms and companies in t*e private sector continue to assert t*eir rig*t to suc* resources in a national sovereignty and competition3focused discourse. +it* "osnedra accompanying t*e press release +it* t*e assertion t*at its +ork is #necessary to secure "ussia$s geopolitical interests$'

Open Briefing | D

'n the radar The &

nd

Annual Arctic Marine )ogistics and (nfrastructure #orum +ill be *eld on 2532H

November in !msterdam. ;*e Net*erlands' The %orth %orway European 'ffice is to hold a humans in the arctic seminar on 2? November in Brussels. Belgium' Clashes may occur between right wing nationalists and left wing counter demonstrators in .weden on 95 %o!ember one t*e day t*at marks t*e anniversary of t*e deat* of >ing *arles O-in 1H1K'

Published with intelligence support from Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www0bradburys0co0uk

Open Briefing is t*e +orld$s first intelligence agency for civil society' 7e produce actionable and predictive intelligence' 7e tell you +*at *as *appened and +*at is likely to *appen ne<t' )ost importantly. +e tell you +*y' 7e do t*is so t*at better informed citi4ens can more effectively engage in peace and security debates and civil society organisations can make t*e rig*t advocacy c*oices' ;oget*er. +e can t*en influence positive defence. security and foreign policy decisions by our governments' Open Briefing is a bold and ambitious not3for3profit social enterprise' 7e are a uni:ue international collaboration of intelligence. military. la+ enforcement. government and media professionals' www0openbriefing0org

Analysts: /aura Bartmann. ;ancrPde %euillade. Cary *an. laudia 7agner. ,aniel ;aylor. Patrick 0e+ell. and *ris !bbott'

Open Briefing | 15