SAY GREEN ADVOCATES

Global warming may turn RP into water world

By Tarra Quismundo Philippine Daily Inquirer Filed Under: Environmental Issues MANI A! Philippines "" #al$ o$ Na%a &ity su'mer%ed alon% (ith $ive eastern to(ns o$ the Bi)ol re%ion! and 'et(een *+ million to ,+ million turned into environment re$u%ees a)ross the Philippines.pea/in% o$ the )ountry0s o(n 1in)onvenient truth!2 environmentalists painted this %rim $ore)ast at a )on$eren)e on )limate )han%e and )on$li)t at the Asian Institute o$ Mana%ement3s Poli)y &enter on TuesdayThe s)enario may (ell happen (ithin the )entury i$ people )ontinue to disre%ard the )onsequen)es o$ a (armer planet! they saidThey shared s)ien)e"'a)/ed $ore)asts o$ the Philippines at a time (hen i)e )aps surrender to a (armer EarthNereus A)osta! )onvener o$ the Philippine &limate &han%e Initiative and $ormer Bu/idnon )on%ressman! said a meter hi%her o$ sea levels (ill su'mer%e 45 o$ the )ountry3s 46 re%ions! (ith the northern hi%hlands as the only areas spared $rom the )atastrophe1The Philippines as an ar)hipela%o is )onsidered a )limate hotspot --- (ith *+ out o$ 7+ provin)es vulnera'le to a one meter rise in sea level!2 said A)osta in a presentation 'e$ore an audien)e o$ 8+ listeners! amon% them o$$i)ers $rom the environment and ener%y departments! the a)ademe and non"%overnment or%ani9ationsA)osta said provin)es in the Autonomous :e%ion o$ Muslim Mindanao ;A:MM<! the =am'oan%a Peninsula! Eastern >isayas and the Bi)ol re%ion! 1in)identally those (ith the hi%her poverty in)iden)e and %reatest $ood inse)urity in the Philippines!2 are amon% pla)es to 'e (orst hit 'y (idespread $loodin% 'e)ause o$ %lo'al sea"level rise1?ith these re%ions a$$e)ted! there (ill 'e *+ ;million< to ,+ million people (ho (ill 'e dislo)ated! they (ill 'e)ome environmental re$u%ees (ho (ill 'e $i%htin% $or s)ar)e resour)es!2 said A)osta in an intervie(A)osta 'ased his estimates on pu'lished international studies on )limate )han%e! in)ludin% that o$ the No'el pri9e"(innin% Inter%overnmental Panel on &limate &han%e and @ames #ansen! a )limate s)ientist (ith the United .tates3 National Aeronauti)s and .pa)e Administration! (ho studied )ar'on dioAide emission levels (orld(ideAt one point! A)osta )ra)/ed a Bo/e Bust to 'rea/ the silen)e o$ the audien)e1May'e our 6!4++ islands (ill 'e redu)ed to 8!+++ 'e)ause (e (ill 'e under a permanent hi%h tide- And in the &ordilleras! may'e the Ne( People3s Army (ill )han%e its name to the Ne( People3s Navy-2 As/ed ho( imminent su)h li$e threat is! A)osta said: 1In *+ to 5+ years! i$ you %o 'y the s)ien)e! even 'y Europe- And @ames #ansen said (e have )rossed the 'orderline level o$ &C* emissions-2 &ar'on dioAide! )hie$ly emissions $rom automo'iles and industry! has lon% 'een identi$ied as the primary )ontri'utor to a (armer planet- #ansen! as A)osta )ited! has $ound that &C* trapped in the planet is at a 1dan%erous tippin% point o$ ,75 parts per million-2

.tudies have sho(n that temperature rise )ould lead to eAtreme (eather! in)ludin% stron%er typhoons! drou%ht! heat (aves and heavy $loodin%@oy)e Pala)ol! e)olo%y pro%ram )oordinator at the &atholi) Bishops0 &on$eren)e o$ the Philippines3 National .e)retariat $or .o)ial A)tion @usti)e and Pea)e ;&B&P" NA..A<! mean(hile told the stunned audien)e that Bust a hal$"meter rise in sea levels (ill inundate the eastern hal$ o$ &amarines .ur in the Bi)ol re%ionUsin% a map! Pala)ol sho(ed ho( hal$ on Na%a &ity and surroundin% to(ns in the eastern part o$ &amarines .ur (ould 'e inundated 'y (aters $rom the Philippine .ea 1(ith Bust a -5"meter rise in sea level-2 &B&P"NA..A studies have also sho(ed a )ontinuin% and risin% rate o$ depletion o$ Philippine natural resour)es! he said- In the last )entury! $orest")overed land shran/ $rom 6+ to 7+ per)ent in the 4D++s to 47 per)ent in *++*C$ the remainin% %reens! 1less than three per)ent is ori%inal $orest )over2 and the rest (as salva%ed throu%h re$orestation!2 Pala)ol saidFrom 4D47 to 4DD6! Philippine man%rove areas (ere redu)ed to *E-6 per)ent! most o$ (hi)h lost to )onversion into $ish ponds- Pala)ol did not %ive an estimate loss 'ut he said )oral ree$s! home to the )ountry3s diverse marine li$e! have 'een de%raded 'y )yanide! dynamite and )ommer)ial $ishin%1&limate )han%e is a moral issue and the &B&P is underta/in% these studies under its role to prote)t the inte%rity o$ )reation!2 Pala)ol saidA study 'y International Alert! a %lo'al non"%overnment or%ani9ation $or pea)e" 'uildin%! pla)ed the Philippines amon% E8 nations 1$a)in% a hi%h ris/ o$ armed )on$li)t as a /no)/"on )onsequen)e o$ )limate )han%e-2 The list in)luded nations )urrently eAperien)in% )on$li)t! in)ludin% Iran! A$%hanistan! Burma! &had! Nepal! :(anda! .omalia! .ierra eone! and other A$ri)an! Middle Eastern and Asian statesIn the Philippine edition its pu'li)ation 1A &limate o$ &on$li)t: The in/s Bet(een &limate &han%e! Pea)e and ?ar!2 International Alert )autioned: 1There is a real ris/ that )limate )han%e (ill )ompound the propensity $or violent )on$li)t! (hi)h in turn (ill leave )ommunities poorer! less resilient and less a'le to )ope (ith the )onsequen)es o$ )limate )han%e-2 The or%ani9ation estimated that some *-6 'illion people in these )ountries (ill su$$er the e$$e)ts o$ )limate"a%%ravated violen)e.ome 58 other )ountries (ere identi$ied to 'e at a 1hi%h ris/ o$ $a)in% politi)al insta'ility2 'e)ause o$ )limate )han%e! amon% them nations in atin Ameri)a! poorer nations in Europe and even po(er$ul states su)h as North Forea! :ussia and .audi Ara'ia1--- GIHt is sa$e to predi)t that the )onsequen)es o$ )limate )han%e (ill )om'ine (ith other $a)tors to put additional strain on already $ra%ile so)ial and politi)al systemsThese are the )onditions in (hi)h )on$li)ts $lourish and )annot 'e resolved (ithout violen)e 'e)ause %overnments are ar'itrary! inept and )orrupt!2 said International Alert3s Novem'er *++6 report that (as released in Manila TuesdayIt added: 1I$ the relationship 'et(een )limate )han%e and violent )on$li)t is not addressed! there (ill 'e a vi)ious )ir)le o$ $ailure to adapt to )limate )han%e! (orsenin% the ris/ o$ violent )on$li)t and! in turn! redu)in% $urther the a'ility to adapt-2 Nota'ly a'sent on 'oth lists are ri)her nations su)h as the United .tates! (hi)h s)ien)e has identi$ied to 'e the lar%est )ontri'utor to the (orld3s )ar'on emissions! &hina! another 'i%"time ener%y )onsumer! and the United Fin%dom! amon% others-

For a state to adapt and avert violen)e! International Alert3s senior poli)y advisor Edmundo Iar)ia advo)ated the development o$ 1a resilient so)iety2 throu%h spreadin% )limate )han%e a(areness and en%a%in% %overnment and )ivil so)iety in )onstant dialo%-