E.V.A.

- 10 Symposium
May 17-20, 2005 London, England

Earned Schedule
an extension to EVM theory

Kym Henderson
Education Director PMI Sydney, Australia Chapter kym.henderson@froggy.com.au 61 414 428 537

Walt Lipke
Software Division Tinker AFB walter.lipke@tinker.af.mil (405) 736-3341

Purpose
To discuss and encourage the application of a new method of schedule analysis derived from Earned Value Management, termed Earned Schedule.

Overview
The Problem with EVM Earned Schedule Concept Applications Status & Future Summary

The Problem

EVA-10 Symposium May 18-20, 2005 London, England

Earned Value Basics

BAC
BCWP CPI = ACWP

BCWS

SPI =

BCWP BCWS

$
ACWP

CV SV

BCWP

Time

So, whats the problem?

Traditional schedule EVM metrics are good at beginning of project Show schedule performance trends But the metrics dont reflect real schedule performance at end Eventually, all budget will be earned as the work is completed, no matter how late you finish SPI improves and ends up at 1.00 at end of project SV improves and ends up at $0 variance at end of project Traditional schedule metrics lose their predictive ability over the last third of project Impacts schedule predictions, EAC predictions

Project managers dont understand schedule performance in terms of budget

Like most of us!
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Earned Value
Cost and Schedule Variances
CV = BCWP - ACWP CV = BCWP - ACWP SV = BCWP - BCWS SV = BCWP - BCWS

+$
0
J F M A M J J A S O N

01
D J

02
F M A

-$

CV SV Note: Project completion was scheduled for Jan 02, but completed Apr 02. 7

Earned Value
2.0

Cost and Schedule Performance Indices

CPI = BCWP ACWP SPI = BCWP BCWS

INDEX VALUE

1.5

1.0

0.5

CPI SPI
0.0 J F M A M J J A S O

01

02

Note: Project completion was scheduled for Jan 02, but completed Apr 02. 8

Earned Schedule Concept

EVA-10 Symposium May 18-20, 2005 London, England

Earned Schedule Concept

SPI($) = BCWP BCWS

SV($) = BCWP BCWS

BCWS

SPI(t) =

ES AT

SV(t) = ES AT

Projection of BCWP onto BCWS

$
BCWP
ES = All of May + Portion of June ES = 5 + AT = 7 BCWP($) - BCWS(May) BCWS(June) - BCWS(May)

Time

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Schedule Variance Comparison

100 1

Early Finish Project

80 0.8

60

0.6

Mo

40

0.4

20

0.2

SV($)
0

SV(t)
0

Late Finish Project

-100 -1 -200 -2 -300

Mo

-400

-3

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Schedule Performance Index Comparison

1.12

Early Finish Project

1.10 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 J
1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70

SPI($)
F M A M J J A S O N D J F

SPI(t)
M

Late Finish Project

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Earned Schedule Indicators

Key Points:
ES Indicators constructed to behave in an analogous manner to the EVM Cost Indicators, CV and CPI SV(t) and SPI(t) are not constrained by BCWS calculation reference SV(t) and SPI(t) provide duration based measures of schedule performance

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SV($) versus SV(t)

BCWS

SV Earned Earnedschedule schedulemetrics metricsrelate relate work performed to actual time, work performed to actual time,not not work workscheduled scheduled Retain Retainutility utilityover overtime time Only Onlyreturn returnto to0 0or or1.00 1.00where where on time completion achieved on time completion achieved
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BCWP

Earned Schedule (ES)

SV(t)

Actual ActualTime Time

Applications

EVA-10 Symposium May 18-20, 2005 London, England

ES Applied to Real Project Data:

Late Finish Project: SV($) and SV(t)
Commercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1 Cost and Schedule Variances
at Project Projection: Week Starting 15th July xx
CV cum 20 0 -20 SV cum Target SV & CV SV (t) cum 2 0

Stop wk 19 Sched wk 20 Re-start wk 26

-2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16

D o llars (,000)

-40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140 -160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Elapsed Weeks

W eeks

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Early Finish Project: SV($) and SV(t)

Commerical IT Infrastructure Expansion Project: Phases 2 & 3 Combined Cost and Schedule Variances
as at Project Completion: Week Starting 9th October xx Target SV & CV CV cum SV ($) cum SV (t) cum 5.0 55.0 45.0

Sched wk 25

4.0 3.0

Dollars ($,000)

35.0 25.0 15.0 5.0 -5.0 -15.0 -25.0

Stop wk 16

1.0 0.0 -1.0

Re-start wk 19
-2.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Elapsed Weeks

W eeks

2.0

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IEAC(t) Predictions using ES Techniques: Weekly Plots of IEAC(t) Late Finish Project Example
Commercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1
Earned Schedule, Independent Estimate At Completion (time) - IEAC(t)
as at Project Completion: Week Starting 15th July xx
Planned Schedule Earned Schedule cum IEAC(t) PD/SPI(t)

40 35 30 Duration (Weeks) 25 20 15 10 5 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Plan Dur wk 20

Stop wk 19

Re-start wk 26

Actual Time (Weeks)

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IECD Predictions using ES Techniques: Weekly Plots of Independent Estimate of Completion Date
Commercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1
Earned Schedule, Independent Estimates of Completion Date (IECD)
as at Project Completion: Week Starting 15th July xx
Planned Schedule Earned Schedule cum Planned Com pletion Date Independent Estim ate of Com pletion Date

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Stop wk 19
20 Duration (Weeks)

Plan Dur wk 20 Compl Apr 7

28 Jul 90 14 Jul 90 30 Jun 90 16 Jun 90 02 Jun 90

15

19 May 90

Re-start wk 26
10

05 May 90 21 Apr 90 07 Apr 90 24 Mar 90

10 Mar 90 24 Feb 90 10 Feb 90

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

27 Jan 90

Actual Time (Weeks)

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ES vs EVM Comparison
Earned Schedule Earned Value
SV(t) and SPI(t) valid for SV($) and SPI($) validity entire project, including early limited to early finish projects and late finish Limited prediction capability Duration based predictive No predictive capability after capability analogous to EVMs cost based indicators planned completion date exceeded Facilitates Cost Schedule Management (using EVM and ES) EVM Management focused to Cost
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Status & Future

EVA-10 Symposium May 18-20, 2005 London, England

Time-Based Schedule Measures An Emerging EVM Practice

Inclusion of Emerging Practice Insert into PMI - EVM Practice Standard
Dr. John Singley, VP of CPM

Included in Box 3-1 of EVM Practice Standard

Describes basic principles of Earned Schedule Provides foundation for further development of and research intended to result in Earned Schedule acceptance as a valid extension to EVM

EVM Practice Standard released at 2004 IPMC Conference

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Early Adopters
Incorporation of ES into EVM Instruction
Several instruction sources now offer ES as part of EVM

Requests for information and ES calculator

Calculator provided freely to > 50 requestors

Tool vendor interest Growing evidence of use on real projects

Evidence of use in a number of countries USA, Australia, Sweden, Belgium Applications across weapons programs, construction, software development, Range of project size from very small and short to extremely large and long duration

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Foreseen Uses of Earned Schedule

Enables independent evaluation of schedule estimates: ETC(t), EAC(t)
Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager .

Facilitates insight into network schedule performance

Duration based Schedule indicators Identification of impediments/constraints and potential future rework Evaluation of adherence to plan

Improvement to Schedule and Cost prediction

Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager .

Application of direct statistical analysis of schedule performance

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Summary

EVA-10 Symposium May 18-20, 2005 London, England

Summary
Derived from EVM data only Provides time-based schedule indicators Indicators do not fail for late finish projects Application is scalable up/down, just as is EVM Schedule prediction is better than any other EVM method presently used
SPI(t) behaves similarly to CPI IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t) behaves similarly to IEAC = BAC / CPI

Facilitates bridging EVM to the schedule

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References
1. Schedule is Different, The Measurable News, March & Summer 2003 [Walt Lipke] 2. Earned Schedule: A Breakthrough Extension to Earned Value Theory? A Retrospective Analysis of Real Project Data, The Measurable News, Summer 2003 [Kym Henderson] 3. Further Developments in Earned Schedule, The Measurable News, Spring 2004 [Kym Henderson] 4. Connecting Earned Value to the Schedule, The Measurable News, Winter 2004 [Walt Lipke] 5. Forecasting Project Schedule Completion by Using Earned Value Metrics Presentation by Ing. Stephan Vandevoorde, Senior Project Manager, Fabricom Airport Systems, Belgium 6. Earned Schedule in Action, Publication pending, [Kym Henderson]
http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/ Click Education, then Presentations and Papers for .pdf copies, except (6)

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