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8udhl Seuawan
1eknlk Slpll - unS8l
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Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are mutually exclusive, or equivalently disjoint, if
they do not contain any of the same simple events (outcomes).
!"#$%&'* A coottoctot ls ploooloq tbe potcbose of epolpmeot locloJloq bollJozets, oeeJeJ fot o oew
ptoject lo o temote oteo. 5oppose tbot ftom bls ptevloos expetleoce, be fqote tbete ls o 50X
cbooce tbot eocb bollJozet coo lost ot leost 6 mootb wltboot ooy bteokJowo. lf be potcboseJ J
bollJozets, wbot ls tbe ptoboblllty tbot tbete wlll be ooly 1 bollJozet lef opetouve lo 6
mootbs ?
lf we denoLe Lhe condluon of each bulldozer aer 6 monLhs as C for qooJ and 8 for boJ
condluons, Lhe posslble sLaLuLes of Lhe Lhree bulldozers would be
+++ , #&& -./'' 01&&234'/( 56 7332 83625936
++: , ;/(- #62 ('8362 01&&234'/( 7332< #62 -.5/2 36' 0#2
++:
::: , #&& -./'' 01&&234'/( 56 0#2 83625936
:++
::+
+:+
:+:
LeL
l = evenL LhaL Lhe rsL bulldozer ls operauonal aer 6 monLhs
L = 2 bulldozer are operauonal aer 6 monLhs
lf Lhe sample polnLs are all equally llkely, Lhen referrlng Lo Lhe venn dlagram
shows ln llgure below.
+++
++:
+::
:::
:++
::+
+:+
:+:
l = CCC, CC8, C88, C8C
L = CC8, C8C, 8CC
1he condluonal probablllLy of L glven l ls
1hls ls slmply Lhe rauo of Lhe number of samples polnLs ln Ll relauve
Lhose ln l, lllusLraung Lherefore Lhe nouon LhaL l Laken as Lhe new
sample space". Slmllarly, Lhe condluonal probablllLy of l glven L
would be
Powever, lf Lhe sample polnLs are noL equally llkely, Lhen Lhe
assoclaLed probablllLy measures musL be used ln Lhe calculauon on
Lhe condluonal probablllLy. lor example, lf Lhe probablllLy of a
bulldozer's operaung aL leasL 6 monLhs ls 80, Lhen (assumlng
sLausucal lndependence) Lhe probablllues of Lhe varlous sample
polnLs wlll be as follows
l(CCC) = 0.312
l(CC8) = 0.128
l(C88) = 0.032
l(888) = 0.008
l(8CC) = 0.128
l(88C) = 0.032
l(C8C) = 0.128
l(88C) = 0.032
lf Lhls case, (L|l) musL reecL Lhe probablllues of Lhe sample
polnLs ln Ll relauve Lo Lhe sample polnLs ln l. Accordlngly, we
have
= 0.32
=/30&'$
under load l, Lhe probablllues of fallure Lhe lndlvldual members
o, b and c of Lhe Lruss are 0.03, 0.04 and 0.03. 1he fallure of
any member(s) wlll consuLuLe fallure of Lhe Lruss.
Assumlng LhaL fallures of Lhe lndlvldual members are stousucolly
loJepeoJeot, so LhaL Lhe fallure probablllLy of Lwo or more
members ls equal Lo producL of Lhe respecuve member
probablllues, deLermlne Lhe probablllLy of Lhe Lruss.
>6(?'/
uenoung Lhe fallure evenLs of Lhe Lhree members as A, 8 and c,
we have l(A) = 0.03, l(8) = 0.04, l(c) = 0.03. And wlLh Lhe
assumpuon of sLausucal lndependence
l(A8) = (0.03)(0.04) = 0.0020
l(Ac) = (0.03)(0.03) = 0.0013
l(8c) = (0.04)(0.03) = 0.0012
And
l(A8c) = (0.03)(0.04)(0.03) = 0.00006
robablllues for Lhree evenLs
l(
1
@
2
@
J
) = lj(
1
@
2
)@
J
]
= l(
1
@
2
) - l(
J
) - lj(
1
@
2
)
J
]
= l(
1
) - l(
2
) - l(
J
) - l(
1

2
) - l(
1

J
)
- l(
2

J
) - l(
1

J
)
= 0.115J6
=/30&'$
Conslder a 100-km (kllomeLer) hlghway, and assume LhaL Lhe
road condluon and Lramc are unlform LhroughouL Lhe 100-km
dlsLance, so LhaL accldenLs are equally llke Lo occur anywhere
on Lhe hlghway. uene Lhe evenLs
A = an accldenL ln kllomeLers 0 Lo 30
8 = an accldenL ln kllomeLers 20 Lo 60
>6(?'/
Slnce accldenLs are equally llkely anywhere along Lhe hlghway, lL
may be assumed LhaL Lhe probablllLy of an accldenL ln a glven
lnLerval of Lhe hlghway ls proporuonal Lo Lhe dlsLance of Lhe
lnLerval. 1herefore lf Lhe accldenL occurs on Lhls 100-km
hlghway
l(A) = 30/100 l(8) = 40/100
now leL us pose Lhe quesuon: lf any accldenL
occurs ln Lhe lnLerval (20,60), whaL ls Lhe
probablllLy of Lhe evenL A" ln Lhls case, we are
lnLeresLed ln Lhe probablllLy of A on Lhe
condluon LhaL 8 has occurred, Lhls ls slmply
proporuon of Lhe dlsLance LhaL belongs Lo 8
wlLhln whlch A ls also reallzed.
1he condluonal probablllLy ls
l(A|8) = l(A8) / l(8) = 10/40
8uL, ln Lhls case l(A8) = 10/100 and l(8) =
40/100
=/30&'$
1he seulemenL problem of a sLeel frame may be ldeallzed as
follows, A and 8 represenL Lwo fooung resung on soll. Lach
fooung may elLher remaln aL Lhe orlglnal level or seule 3 cm.
1he probablllLy of seulemenL ln each fooung ls 0.1. Powever,
Lhe probablllLy LhaL a fooung wlll seule, glven LhaL Lhe oLher
has seuled, ls 0.8
>6(?'/
(a) 1he posslble condluons of Lhe fooung are as follows
A8 A seules, 8 seules
A8 A does noL seule, 8 seules
A8 A seules, 8 does noL seule
A8 A does noL seule, 8 does noL seule
(a) 1he posslble condluons of Lhe fooung (page before)
(b) 1he probablllLy of Lhe seulemenL (LhaL ls, elLher A or 8 wlll
seule) ls
l(A @ 8) = l(A) - l(8) - l(A8)
= l(A) + (8) - l(A)l(8|A)
= 0.1 + 0.1 - 0.1 x 0.8 = 0.12
(c) lf we are lnLeresLed ln Lhe evenL LhaL dlerenual seulemenL
(LhaL ls, a dlerenual ln Lhe level of Lhe Lwo fooungs) occurs,
Lhe evenL wlll conslsL A8 and A8
l() = l(A8) + l(A8)
= l(8)l(A|8) +l(A)l(A|8)
= (0.1)(0.2) + (0.1)(0.2) = 0.04
=/30&'$
Suppose, from hlsLorlcal record LhaL Lhe LoLal annual ralnfall ln a
caLch basln ls esumaLed Lo be normal N(60 ln, 13 ln)
(a) WhaL ls Lhe probablllLy LhaL ln Lhe fuLure years Lhe annual
ralnfall wlll be beLween 40 and 70 ln
(b) WhaL ls Lhe probablllLy LhaL Lhe annual ralnfall wlll be aL leasL
30 ln
(c) WhaL ls Lhe 10-percenule annual ralnfall ln Lhe basln (LhaL ls,
Lhe value of varlaLe aL whlch Lhe cumulauve probablllLy ls
10) ? ln oLher words, Lhe probablllLy LhaL Lhe annual ralnfall
wlll be less Lhan Lhe 10-percenule ls 10.
>6(?'/
(a) WhaL ls Lhe probablllLy LhaL ln Lhe fuLure years Lhe annual
ralnfall wlll be beLween 40 and 70 ln
lrom 1able A1, we Lherefore obLaln Lhe probablllLy
l(40 < \ < 70) = 0.7486 - (1 - 0.9082) = 0.6368
>6(?'/
(b) WhaL ls Lhe probablllLy LhaL Lhe annual ralnfall wlll be aL leasL
30 ln
>6(?'/
(c) WhaL ls Lhe 10-percenule annual ralnfall ln Lhe basln (LhaL ls,
Lhe value of varlaLe aL whlch Lhe cumulauve probablllLy ls
10) ? ln oLher words, Lhe probablllLy LhaL Lhe annual ralnfall
wlll be less Lhan Lhe 10-percenule ls 10.
ln Lhls case, we wlsh Lo deLermlne x
.10
so LhaL
l(\ < x
.10
) = 0.1
1herefore
Cbservlng 1able A.1 LhaL probablllues less Lhan 0.30 are
assoclaLed wlLh negauve values of Lhe varlaLe, and uslng
Pence Lhe 10-percenule annual ralnfall ls
x
.10
= 60 - 1.28 (13) = 40.8 ln