Hege Core-SDI

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core
Crowe-Hammond-Schirmer
Hege Core- SDI

Hege Core- SDI..........................................................................................................................................................1 ===Uniqueness===................................................................................................................................................... 3
Hegemony Up..............................................................................................................................................................................................3
Hegemony Up............................................................................................................................................................ 3
Hegemony Up..............................................................................................................................................................................................4
Hegemony Up............................................................................................................................................................
Hegemony Up..............................................................................................................................................................................................6
Hegemony Up............................................................................................................................................................ !
Hegemony Down.........................................................................................................................................................................................7
Hegemony Down....................................................................................................................................................... "

Hegemony Down.........................................................................................................................................................................................8
Hegemony Down....................................................................................................................................................... #
Hegemony Down.........................................................................................................................................................................................9
Hegemony Down....................................................................................................................................................... $
Hegemony Sustainable..............................................................................................................................................................................10
Hegemony Sus%aina&'e............................................................................................................................................10
Hegemony Sustainable..............................................................................................................................................................................11
Hegemony Sus%aina&'e............................................................................................................................................11
Hegemony Unsustainable..........................................................................................................................................................................12
Hegemony Unsus%aina&'e....................................................................................................................................... 12
Hegemony Unsustainable..........................................................................................................................................................................13
Hegemony Unsus%aina&'e....................................................................................................................................... 13
O s!o"e #alan$ing %ow...........................................................................................................................................................................14
())shore *a'ancing +ow.........................................................................................................................................1 ====Hege ,ood====............................................................................................................................................. 1Hege &oo'( )agan ...................................................................................................................................................................................1*
Hege ,ood- .agan .................................................................................................................................................1Hege &oo'( )!lili+a'................................................................................................................................................................................17
Hege ,ood- .h'i'i/ad..............................................................................................................................................1"

Hege &oo'( ,!aye"...................................................................................................................................................................................18
Hege ,ood- 0hayer.................................................................................................................................................1#

Hege &oo'( -e"guson................................................................................................................................................................................19
Hege ,ood- 1erguson............................................................................................................................................. 1$

Hege &oo'( ."oli .....................................................................................................................................................................................20 1
Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)....................................................................................................................................................20

((((/0t. ."oli .............................................................................................................................................................................................21
----34%. 2ro'i)............................................................................................................................................................21
Hege &oo'( Demo$"a$y............................................................................................................................................................................22
Hege ,ood- Democracy..........................................................................................................................................22

((((/0t. Demo$"a$y....................................................................................................................................................................................23
----34%. Democracy..................................................................................................................................................23
Hege &oo'( /$onomy...............................................................................................................................................................................24
Hege ,ood- 3conomy............................................................................................................................................. 2

((((/0t. /$onomy ......................................................................................................................................................................................2*
----34%. 3conomy .................................................................................................................................................... 2Hege &oo'( 1i''le /ast 2a"...................................................................................................................................................................26
Hege ,ood- 5idd'e 3as% 6ar................................................................................................................................2!

((((/0t. 1i''le /ast 2a"...........................................................................................................................................................................27
----34%. 5idd'e 3as% 6ar........................................................................................................................................2"

3,4 Hege #a'( 2a"...................................................................................................................................................................................28
708 Hege *ad- 6ar................................................................................................................................................ 2#

3,4 Hege #a'( 2a"...................................................................................................................................................................................29
708 Hege *ad- 6ar................................................................................................................................................ 2$

3,4 Hege #a'( 5!ina 2a"........................................................................................................................................................................30
708 Hege *ad- China 6ar.....................................................................................................................................30

3,4 Hege #a'( 6ussian 2a".....................................................................................................................................................................30
708 Hege *ad- 9ussian 6ar..................................................................................................................................30

3,4 Hege #a'( ,e""o"ism..........................................................................................................................................................................32
708 Hege *ad- 0errorism...................................................................................................................................... 32

3,4 O s!o"e #alan$ing -"ontline ............................................................................................................................................................33
708 ())shore *a'ancing 1ron%'ine ........................................................................................................................33

3,4 O s!o"e #alan$ing -"ontline.............................................................................................................................................................34
708 ())shore *a'ancing 1ron%'ine.........................................................................................................................3 ====Hege *ad====................................................................................................................................................3Hege *ad- 6ar........................................................................................................................................................3Hege #a'( 2a"..........................................................................................................................................................................................37
Hege *ad- 6ar........................................................................................................................................................3"

Hege #a'( 5!ina 2a"................................................................................................................................................................................38
Hege *ad- China 6ar.............................................................................................................................................3#

((((/0t. 5!ina 2a".....................................................................................................................................................................................39 2
----34%. China 6ar.................................................................................................................................................. 3$

Hege #a'( 6ussia 2a"..............................................................................................................................................................................40
Hege *ad- 9ussia 6ar............................................................................................................................................ 0

Hege #a'( ,e""o"ism.................................................................................................................................................................................41
Hege *ad- 0errorism.............................................................................................................................................. 1

((((/0t. ,e""o"ism......................................................................................................................................................................................42
----34%. 0errorism.................................................................................................................................................... 2
O s!o"e #alan$ing -"ontline....................................................................................................................................................................43
())shore *a'ancing 1ron%'ine................................................................................................................................ 3

((((/0t. O s!o"e #alan$ing.......................................................................................................................................................................4*
----34%. ())shore *a'ancing.................................................................................................................................... 3,4 Hege &oo'( 2a"................................................................................................................................................................................46
708 Hege ,ood- 6ar.............................................................................................................................................. !

3,4 Hege &oo'( ."oli ..............................................................................................................................................................................48
708 Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)............................................................................................................................................ #

3,4 Hege &oo'( ."oli ..............................................................................................................................................................................49
708 Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)............................................................................................................................................ $

3,4 Hege &oo'( Demo$"a$y.....................................................................................................................................................................*0
708 Hege ,ood- Democracy.................................................................................................................................. -0

3,4 Hege &oo'( /$onomy........................................................................................................................................................................*1
708 Hege ,ood- 3conomy..................................................................................................................................... -1

3,4 Hege &oo'( /$onomy........................................................................................................................................................................*2
708 Hege ,ood- 3conomy..................................................................................................................................... -2

3,4 Hege &oo'( 1i''le /ast 2a"............................................................................................................................................................*3
708 Hege ,ood- 5idd'e 3as% 6ar........................................................................................................................-3
===Uniqueness=== Hegemony Up
U.S. Hegemony is sus%aina&'e : 0he U.S. is dominan% in e;ery sing'e sec%or : assumes (&ama
.re)% 0$
)"e t7 Senio" .oli$y 3'8iso" at 5DU7 909 :Hein"i$! )"e t7 senio" o"eign poli$y a'8iso" to t!e 5DU;5SU pa"liamenta"y g"oup in t!e ge"man bun'estag7 ,!e 2o"l' ,o'ay7 -eb"ua"y 20097 p. 11<
Obama an' !is 6epubli$an opponent >o!n 1$5ain e0p"esse' t!e 8iew t!at t!e Unite' States was an' oug!t to "emain t!e gua"anto" o inte"national stability an' t!e in'ispensable stabilising powe". 3gainst t!e ba$='"op o t!e p"esent inan$ial an' e$onomi$ $"isis an' "e=in'le' 'is$ussion about t!e 'e$line o US powe"7 it is easy to o8e"loo= t!e a$t t!at 3me"i$a is st"u$tu"ally supe"io" to all ot!e" $ount"ies an' will "emain so o" t!e o"eseeable utu"e. ,H/ &/O&63.H?53@ D?1/%S?O%S O- ,H/ U%?,/D States7 its mate"ial "esou"$es an'
Du"ing t!e p"esi'ential ele$tion $ampaign7 bot! #a"a$=
!uman $apital7 its milita"y st"engt! an' e$onomi$ $ompetiti8eness as well as its libe"al politi$al an' e$onomi$ t"a'itions7 a"e t!e ing"e'ients o supe"io"ity. ?t !as t!e $apa$ity to !eal its own woun's li=e no ot!e" $ount"y. S,6/%&,HS ,!e US not only possesses la"ge 'eposits o natu"al "esou"$es an' 8ast a"eas o p"o'u$ti8e a"mlan'7 but also enAoys a8ou"able me'ium( an' long(te"m 'emog"ap!i$ t"en's. ,!an=s to immig"ation an' a !ig! bi"t! "ate7 it !as a young population $ompa"e' to /u"ope7 >apan7 6ussia as well as 5!ina. ,!is ma=es t!e bu"'en o p"o8i'ing o" an ageing population a" less one"ous. ?n spite o t!e p"esent $"isis7 t!e e$onomy7 w!i$! a$$ounts o" mo"e t!an a Bua"te" o t!e wo"l'Cs g"oss 'omesti$ p"o'u$t :&D. <7 is essentially 8ib"ant. O8e" t!e past twenty i8e yea"s7 its g"owt! !as been signi i$antly !ig!e" t!an /u"opeCs an' >apanCsD t!e e$onomy is a'aptable an' mo"e inno8ati8e t!an any ot!e". ?t is t!e most $ompetiti8e globally7 wit! pa"ti$ula" st"engt!s in $"u$ial st"ategi$ a"eas su$! as nanote$!nology an' bioenginee"ing. ,!e US !as t!e best uni8e"sities an' "esea"$! institutes an' t"ains mo"e enginee"s in "elation to its population t!an any ot!e" maAo" e$onomy. ?t in8ests 2.6 pe"$ent o its &D. in !ig!e" e'u$ation7 $ompa"e' wit! 1.2 pe"$ent in /u"ope an' 1.1 pe"$ent in >apan. ."esi'ent #a"a$= ObamaCs plan o" mo"e e'u$ational in8estment aims to maintain t!is a'8antage also against 5!ina7 w!i$! is in$"easing its !ig!e" e'u$ation in8estments. ?n t!e milita"y 'omain too7 no ot!e" $ount"y $omes $lose to mat$!ing t!e $apability o t!e US to p"oAe$t its powe" globally. 3me"i$a a$$ounts o" almost !al o global milita"y spen'ing7 si0 times mo"e t!an 5!ina7 its only potential "i8al. 5u""ent 'e en$e spen'ing7 !owe8e"7 at 4.2 pe"$ent o &D.7 is still a" below t!e 'ouble('igit 5ol' 2a" pea=. /8en i t!e $ost o inte"8ention in ?"aB an'
3 g!anistan "uns at an annual igu"e o E12* billion7 t!is is less t!an one pe" $ent o &D. an' !en$e $onsi'e"ably lowe" t!an t!e $ost o t!e Fietnam wa". ?n $ont"ast to t!e C!a"' powe"C o milita"y st"engt!7 ?"aB an' t!e
7 t!e st"u$tu"al $omponents o so t powe" "emain inta$t7 "om US mass $ultu"e ( t!e 'ominan$e o 3me"i$an global $ommuni$ations su$! as t!e inte"net an' tele8ision ( to t!e un ailing appeal o its uni8e"sities.
&uantGnamo #ay an' 3bu &!"aib p"oblems !a8e se8e"ely 'ente' t!e image an' t!e"eby 'iminis!e' its Cso t powe"C. %e8e"t!eless
(&ama is increasing wha% is a'ready %he 'arges% )unding o) any mi'i%ary in %he wor'd
3'ric< 0$ :>o!n7 H.oliti$ians s!oul' !ee' wo"'s o past wa" !e"oesI7 ,!e #a"nsto"m .at"iot7 >une 267 2009< ;;=!i"n ?n a$t7 as S?.6? points out7 t!e U.S. spent se8en times mo"e on its a"me' o"$es t!an t!e se$on'(biggest spen'e"7 5!ina :at E84.9 billion<D an' mo"e t!an t!e ne0t 14 $ount"ies $ombine'. U.S. milita"y spen'ing alone a$$ounte' o" 42 pe"$ent o t!e total E1.46 t"illion spent on a"ms by go8e"nments wo"l'(wi'e. 2!ile t!e g"owt! in milita"y spen'ing !as been ongoing o" some time7 it was t!e 71(pe"$ent g"owt! 'u"ing t!e p"esi'en$y o &eo"ge 2. #us! t!at $ause' wo"l'wi'e a"ms spen'ing to be 4* pe"$ent g"eate" t!an it was Aust a 'e$a'e ago. ?t9s app"op"iate
to as=4 3"e all t!ese a"ms ne$essa"y an' is t!e U.S. "eally all t!at sa e" a te" spen'ing so mu$! mo"e t!an all t!e ot!e" $ount"ies $ombine'J ,!e e8i'en$e "om a"oun' t!e wo"l' woul' suggest we a"e less sa e. 1any on t!e "ig!t !a8e a"gue'7 an' $ontinue to a"gue7 t!at su$! in$"eases in 'e ense spen'ing a"e ne$essa"y to ig!t t!e t!"eat o te""o"ism. #ut anot!e" o"me" wa" !e"o "om 22 ??7 o"me" senato" "om Sout! Da=ota an' 1972 Demo$"ati$
we $oul' 'e en' ou"sel8es wit! a milita"y bu'get !al t!e $u""ent si+e7 Ht!e te""o"ist !as no battles!ips7 bombe"s7 missiles7 tan=s7 o"gani+e' a"mies o" !ea8y a"tille"y.I %o7 t!e "eason we spen' so mu$! on t!e milita"y isn9t be$ause we nee' to o" ou" 'e ense7 but "at!e"7 not unli=e t!e D"ug 2a"7 t!e milita"y(in'ust"ial $omple0 !as be$ome a Aobs p"og"am t!at must be maintaine' at all $osts7 e8en as it is ban="upting t!e $ount"y an' ma=ing t!e wo"l' a mo"e 'ange"ous pla$e. >ust as t!e p"ison gua"' lobby in 5ali o"nia supplante' t!e tea$!e"s lobby in si+e an' $lout7 $alling o" in$"ease' spen'ing on p"isons an' !a"s!e" '"ug $"ime senten$es to !elp =eep t!e p"isons ille'7 t!e"e a"e now t!ousan's o Aobs in e8e"y $ong"essional 'ist"i$t t!at 'epen' on t!at e8e"(in$"easing milita"y bu'get to maintain t!ose weapon(ma=ing Aobs an' =eep all t!ose milita"y bases in t!e states an' a"oun' t!e wo"l' open o" business. 1a=e no mista=e7 it is not Aust #us! an' t!e 6epubli$ans w!o want to =eep unne$essa"ily in$"easing spen'ing on a"ms . ,!e Demo$"ats a"e Aust as guilty. /8en ."esi'ent Obama !as p"opose' an in$"ease in t!e 2010 milita"y bu'get t!at 5ong"ess app"o8e'. O $ou"se7 t!at 'i'n9t satis y 6epubli$an Sen. >ames ?n!o e7 w!o absu"'ly $laime' t!at H."esi'ent Obama is 'isa"ming
p"esi'ential $an'i'ate &eo"ge 1$&o8e"n7 ma=es t!e =ey point t!at w!ile t!e te""o"ists a"e a 'ange"7 t!ey a"e not a milita"y p"oblem. 3s !e sai' in !is >une 1 2all St"eet >ou"nal opinion pie$e a"guing 3me"i$a. %e8e" be o"e !as a p"esi'ent so "a8age' t!e milita"y at a time o wa".I
Hegemony Up
7nd %here are no cha''engers
*roo<s an' 2. 6oh')or%h7 ?6 K Da"tmout!7 =# :2o"l' Out o #alan$e7 5!apte" 17 !ttp4;;p"ess.p"in$eton.e'u;$!apte"s;i8784.p' < ,H/ D?SSO@U,?O% O- ,H/ SOF?/, U%?O% ma"=e' t!e eme"gen$e o !isto"i$ally unpreceden%ed U.S. a'8antages in t!e s$ales o wo"l' powe". %o system o so8e"eign states !as e8e" $ontaine' one state wit! $ompa"able mate"ial p"epon'e"an$e.1 -ollowing its in8asion o 3 g!anistan in 20017 t!e Unite' States loome' so la"ge on t!e wo"l' stage t!at many s$!ola"s $alle' it an empi"e72 but t!e $ostly tu"moil t!at engul e' ?"aB ollowing t!e toppling o Sa''am Hussein in 2003 Buiete' su$! tal=. Su''enly7 t!e limits o U.S. powe" be$ame t!e new p"eo$$upation. 1any analysts began to $ompa"e
S. t!e Unite' States to #"itain at t!e beginning o t!e twentiet! $entu"yLan o8e"st"et$!e'7 'e$lining7 Hwea"y ,itanI t!at Hstagge"s un'e" t!e too 8ast o"b o !is ate.I3 M-ootnote #eginsN 1 ,!is point !as been st"esse' by politi$al
?=enbe""y obse"8es t!at Hsin$e t!e en' o t!e 5ol' 2a"7 t!e Unite' States !as eme"ge' as an un"i8ale' an' unp"e$e'ente' global supe"powe". 3t no ot!e" time in mo'e"n !isto"y !as a single state loome' so la"ge o8e" t!e "est o t!e wo"l'.I H?s 3me"i$an 1ultilate"alism in De$lineJI .e"spe$ti8es on .oliti$s 3 :2003<4 *33. Histo"ian .aul )enne'y st"esses4 H3 statisti$ian $oul' !a8e a wil' time $ompiling lists o t!e iel's in w!i$! t!e
s$ientists7 !isto"ians7 an' poli$yma=e"s. .oliti$al s$ientist &. >o!n US lea's. . . . ?t seems to me t!e"e is no point in t!e /u"opeans o" 5!inese w"inging t!ei" !an's about US p"e'ominan$e7 an' wis!ing it woul' go away. ?t is as i 7 among t!e 8a"ious in!abitants o t!e apes an' mon=eys $age at t!e @on'on Ooo7 one $"eatu"e !a' g"own bigge" an' bigge"Lan' bigge"Luntil it be$ame a *00lb go"illa.I H,!e /agle Has @an'e'4 ,!e %ew U.S. &lobal 1ilita"y .osition7I -inan$ial ,imes7 -eb"ua"y 17 2002. 3n' o"me" se$"eta"y o state Hen"y )issinge" maintains7 H,!e U.S. is enAoying a p"eeminen$e un"i8ale' by e8en t!e g"eatest empi"es o t!e past. -"om weapon"y to ent"ep"eneu"s!ip7 "om s$ien$e to te$!nology7 "om !ig!e" e'u$ation to popula" $ultu"e7 3me"i$a e0e"$ises an unpa"allele' as$en'an$y a"oun' t!e globe.I Does 3me"i$a %ee' a -o"eign .oli$yJ ,owa"' a Diploma$y o" t!e 21st 5entu"y :%ew Po"=4 Simon an' S$!uste"7 2001<7 17. M,e0t 5ontinuesN 2!at a$$ounts o" t!is su''en s!i t in assessments o 3me"i$an powe"J -o" most obse"8e"s7 it was not new in o"mation about mate"ial $apabilities. 3s 6obe"t >e"8is obse"8es7 H1easu"e' in any $on$ei8able way7 t!e Unite' States
t!e p"ima$y it 'es$"ibes will long pe"sist7 e8en i t!e most pessimisti$ p"ognosti$ations about U.S. e$onomi$7 milita"y7 an' te$!nologi$al $ompetiti8eness $ome t"ue. -o" most s$!ola"s o inte"national "elations7 w!at "eally $!ange' a te" 2003 we"e estimates o t!e politi$al utility o 3me"i$a9s p"ima$y . Su''enly7 s$!ola"s we"e imp"esse' by t!e a$t t!at mate"ial p"epon'e"an$e 'oes not always t"anslate into 'esi"e' out$omes . -o" many7
!as a g"eate" s!a"e o wo"l' powe" t!an any ot!e" $ount"y in !isto"y.I4 ,!at statement was as a$$u"ate w!en it was w"itten in 2006 as it woul' !a8e been at any time a te" 19917 an' t!eo"ies o inte"national "elations :?6< t!at e0plain $onst"aints on t!e use o powe" we"e 8in'i$ate' by 3me"i$an setba$=s in ?"aB an' elsew!e"e. -o" mo"e t!an t!"ee 'e$a'es7 mu$! ?6 s$!ola"s!ip !as been 'e8ote' to t!eo"ies about !ow t!e inte"national en8i"onment s!apes states9 be!a8io". * 3pplying t!em to t!e $ase at !an'7 s$!ola"s !a8e '"awn on ea$! o t!e main ?6 t!eo"iesL"ealism7 institutionalism7 $onst"u$ti8ism7 an' libe"alismLto i'enti y e0te"nal :o" Hsystemi$I< $onst"aints t!at un'e"mine t!e 8alue o t!e Unite' States9 p"ima$y7 g"eatly "est"i$ting t!e "ange o se$u"ity poli$ies it $an pu"sue. S$!ola"s emp!asi+e a
8a"iety o elements in t!e

4
inte"national system t!at $onst"ain U.S. se$u"ity poli$y4 inte"national institutions7 balan$ing 'ynami$s7 global e$onomi$ inte"'epen'en$e7 an' legitima$y. ,!e ups!ot is simple but po"tentous o" t!e $ontou"s o inte"national politi$s in t!e 'e$a'es to $ome4 t!e politi$al utility o U.S. mate"ial p"ima$y is attenuate' o" e8en negate' by en'u"ing p"ope"ties o t!e inte"national system. ,!e pu"pose o t!is boo= is to un'e"ta=e a systemati$ e8aluation o t!e e0te"nal $onst"aints t!at s$!ola"s !a8e !ig!lig!te' an' t!e"eby gain a bette" un'e"stan'ing o t!e Unite' States9 global "ole. ,!is entails answe"ing ou" Buestions4 Does t!e Unite' States a$e t!e imminent p"ospe$t o !a8ing its powe" $!e$=e' by a balan$ing $oalition o ot!e" g"eat powe"sJ 3s it !as be$ome in$"easingly e0pose' to t!e inte"national e$onomy7 !as t!e Unite' States be$ome mo"e 8ulne"able to ot!e" a$to"s9 attempts to in luen$e its se$u"ity poli$iesJ ?s t!e Unite' States tig!tly boun' by t!e nee' to maintain a goo' gene"al "eputation o" $oope"ation in inte"national institutionsJ Does t!e Unite' States nee' to a'!e"e to e0isting "ules to sustain legitima$y an' t!us maintain to'ay9s inte"national institutional o"'e"J (ur answer %o each o) %hese ques%ions is noLa in'ing t!at
o8e"tu"ns t!e s$!ola"ly $on8entional wis'om7 a$$o"'ing to w!i$! t!ese a$to"s st"ongly $onst"ain U.S. se$u"ity poli$y. On t!e $ont"a"y7 t!e unp"e$e'ente' $on$ent"ation o powe" "esou"$es in t!e Unite' States gene"ally "en'e"s inope"ati8e t!e $onst"aining e e$ts o t!e systemi$ p"ope"ties long $ent"al to "esea"$! in inte"national "elations.
Hegemony Up
0rends show s%reng%hening U.S. hegemony
Smi%h 2010 :.e""y a "eti"e' U.S. 3i" -o"$e maAo" gene"al7 is t!e aut!o" o
si0 boo=s7 in$lu'ing 6ules an' ,ools o" @ea'e"s 3gusta $!"oni$le77 ?n a t"ouble' wo"l'7 3me"i$a still !as a multitu'e o st"engt!s7 a$$esse'4 2;22;107 !ttp4;;$!"oni$le.augusta.$om;2010(02(19;t"ouble'(wo"l'(ame"i$a(still(!as(multitu'e(st"engt!sJ8Q1266701777 D3 7;1*;10<
2it! so mu$! in t!e me'ia t!at is gloom an' 'oom7 it mig!t be use ul to "emin' ou"sel8es t!at 3me"i$a !as many un'amental st"engt!s. He"e is a listing o some o t!e politi$al7 e$onomi$7 te$!nologi$al7 $ultu"al7 $"eati8e an' ent"ep"eneu"ial a$to"s t!at 'e ine t!e Unite' States to'ay. @a"gest e$onomy. 3t E14 t"illion7 ou" &"oss %ational ."o'u$t is t!e la"gest in t!e wo"l' . Pou must a'' up t!e t!"ee ne0t la"gest (( >apan :E*.* t"illion<7 5!ina :E4.* t"illion< an' &e"many :E 4 t"illion< (( to get to 3me"i$aCs total. #est milita"y. 3lt!oug! ou" se"8i$es !a8e a$e' many st"esses sin$e 9(117 t!e U.S. milita"y e0$els in many ways. ,!e only milita"y wit! a genuine wo"l'wi'e "ea$!7 it !as mo"e $ombat e0pe"ien$e t!an t!e milita"y o any ot!e" nation. #est allian$e;$oalition potential. Ou" ability to in' $oalition pa"tne"s !as been espe$ially !elp ul to us in $ounte"ing te""o"ism :e8en t!e 6ussians an' 5!inese assist<7 an' in t!e wa" in 3 g!anistan. #est b"ain;talent sponge. ? you li8e in anot!e" $ount"y7 a"e "eally sma"t an' want to get bot! a g"eat e'u$ation an' an enlig!tening wo"= e0pe"ien$e7 t!e Unite' States will7 in most $ases7 be you" i"st $!oi$e. 1o"e an' bette" ent"ep"eneu"s. ?t seems to be in ou" genes. ."o'u$ti8e wo"= o"$e. 2!e"eas >apan le' t!e way in t!e past7 "e$ent analyses by a numbe" o inte"national agen$ies "an= t!e Unite' States i"st. 3bility to boun$e ba$= "om maAo" setba$=s . >ust t!in= o w!at we !a8e a$e' in t!e past 70 yea"s (( .ea"l Ha"bo"7 1941D )o"ea7 19*0(*3D Sputni=7 19*7D Fietnam7 196*(197*D 2ate"gate7 1974D t!e 9(11 atta$=s7 2001D an' t!e &"eat 6e$ession7 2007(2009. Fentu"e $apital a8ailability. ? you a"e &e"man7 >apanese7 5!inese o" #"a+ilian wit! a g"eat i'ea o" a new in8ention7 in'ing 8entu"e $apital wit!in you" own nation is 8e"y !a"'. 5ommuni$ations "ea$! an' $ultu"al in luen$e . #eginning in t!e 1940s7 3me"i$a !as su"passe' all ot!e"s in "ea$!ing e8en t!e most "emote pa"ts o t!e wo"l'. %atu"al "esou"$es. 3me"i$aCs supply o $oal an' natu"al gas is eno"mous. ?n a''ition7 t!e potential o sola" powe" is !uge. Unli=e no"t!e"n /u"ope7 6ussia an' no"t!e"n 5!ina7 3me"i$a !as a g"eat amount o suns!ine. #eing win'y is anot!e" 3me"i$an asset. ,!e /nglis! language. -o" almost 100 yea"s7 /nglis! !as been 'ominant. 5ompute" powe". @e' by su$! $o"po"ations as &oogle7 /157 5is$o7 ?#1 an' ?ntel7 3me"i$a !ol's t!e top spot in g"oss $ompute" powe". 5ultu"e o li etime lea"ning. 3me"i$ans !a8e a g"eat lo8e o lea"ning. 3 !ig! pe"$entage o matu"e 3me"i$ans7 o ten en$ou"age' by
$ompany poli$ies on pay an' p"omotions7 pu"sue $ollege an' postg"a'uate e'u$ation. ,e$!ni$al $olleges. ,!ese $olleges a"e a t"easu"e o" t!ose see=ing goo' Aobs. ,!e 5S63 !as two i"st("ate s$!ools7 3ugusta ,e$! an' 3i=en
3g"i$ultu"al se$to". Only t!e #"a+ilians $ome $lose to t!e p"o'u$ti8ity o t!e 3me"i$an a"me". 5ont"ibutions o p!ilant!"opies. ?t is not Aust #ill an' 1elin'a &ates w!o gi8e away money wit! g"eat s=ill. -oun'ations in t!e 5S63 !elp ma=e ou" $ommunity a bette" pla$e to li8e7 wo"= an' enAoy ou" li8es. #i"t! "ate o 2.1. ,!is i'eal bi"t! "ate7 $ombine' wit! ou" ability to att"a$t so many talente' an' !a"' wo"=ing people "om ot!e" nations7 s!oul' ensu"e t!at we will meet t!e $!allenges o t!e utu"e. Di8e"sity. Ha8ing so many o us $oming "om 'i e"ent national7 et!ni$7 "eligious an' linguisti$ g"oups allows 3me"i$a to inte"a$t $om o"tably wit! t!e wo"l'Cs many $ultu"es. %anote$!nology7 biote$!nology an' genome "esea"$!. 3me"i$a lea's t!e wo"l'. -un'amental optimism. 3me"i$ans $ontinue to !a8e !ig! $on i'en$e in t!ei" ability to sol8e p"oblems7 as well as to get t!ings 'one an' 'one well. ,!is p"obably is ou" g"eatest
,e$!. Uni8e"sities. Si0ty(si0 o t!e 100 top uni8e"sities in t!e wo"l' a"e 3me"i$an. st"engt!. ? woul' li=e to $lose on a pe"sonal note. ?n t!e mo"e t!an 7* yea"s t!at ? !a8e !a' t!e blessing o being an 3me"i$an7 only twi$e !a8e ? been pessimisti$ about 3me"i$aCs utu"e. -i"st7 in t!e pe"io' between t!e .ea"l Ha"bo" atta$= an' t!e #attle o 1i'way :? !a' witnesse' t!e atta$=7 an' in t!e mont!s ollowing ? "ea' lots o s$a"y !ea'lines about 2a=e ?slan'7 &uam7 1alaya7 Singapo"e an' #ataan<. Se$on'7 in 1969 w!en ? "etu"ne' "om Fietnam an' obse"8e' 3me"i$a in tu"moil. In sum> sus%ained pessimism can crea%e a dea%h spira' )or any organi/a%ion or ins%i%u%ion. 0ough-minded rea'ism wi%h an o;er'ay o) op%imism is %he <ey %o our )u%ure.
US Heg is high
*andow 10 :Doug #an'ow7 a senio"
ellow at t!e 53,O institute. He wo"=e' as spe$ial assistant to ."esi'ent 6eagan an' e'ito" o t!e politi$al maga+ine ?nBui"y. He w"ites "egula"ly o" lea'ing publi$ations su$! as -o"tune maga+ine7 %ational ?nte"est72all St"eet >ou"nal7 an' 2as!ington ,imes. He !ol's a >.D. "om Stan o"' Uni8e"sity.<
,!e U.S. 'ominates t!e wo"l' as ne8e" be o"e. 3me"i$an i'eals !elpe' topple t!e So8iet empi"e. ,!e U.S. possesses t!e la"gest an' most p"o'u$ti8e e$onomy7 a" out'istan$ing any "i8al7 as well as un'oubte' milita"y sup"ema$y. ,!e U.S. a$$ounts o" one(t!i"' o t!e wo"l'Cs 'e ense outlays an' !as t!e most a'8an$e' eBuipment7 best 8a"iety o o"$es an' la"gest numbe" o allies. ?n'ee'7 t!e U.S. an' its "ien's a"e "esponsible o" 80R o wo"l' 'e ense spen'ing. 2as!ingtonCs potential enemies((5uba7 ?"aB7 %o"t! )o"ea((a"e pat!eti$. .ossible utu"e "i8als li=e 5!ina an' 6ussia a"e yea"s away "om o e"ing e e$ti8e $ompetition
,!e"eCs no ot!e" "eason to !i=e 'e ense spen'ing.
Hegemony Down
Heg is co''apsing : %he economy> China e4pansion and cu%s in %he de)ense &udge%
?ayne and Schwar/ 9;29;0$ :5!"istop!e"7 p"o esso" o
go8e"nment at ,e0as 3S1 an' a $onsultant to t!e %ational ?ntelligen$e 5oun$il an' #enAamin7 lite"a"y an' national e'ito" o t!e 3tlanti$7 20097 H,wilig!t o .a0 3me"i$anaI7 !ttp4;;www.latimes.$om;news;opinion;$ommenta"y;la(oe(s$!wa"+29(2009sep29707437*01*.sto"y< ,!e inte"national o"'e" t!at eme"ge' a te" 2o"l' 2a" ?? !as "ig!tly been te"me' t!e .a0 3me"i$anaD itCs a 2as!ington(le' a""angement t!at !as maintaine' politi$al stability an' p"omote' an open global e$onomi$ system.
,o'ay7 !owe8e"7 t!e .a0 3me"i$ana is wit!e"ing7 t!an=s to w!at t!e %ational ?ntelligen$e 5oun$il in a "e$ent "epo"t 'es$"ibe' as a Tglobal s!i t in "elati8e wealt! an' e$onomi$ powe" wit!out p"e$e'ent in mo'e"n !isto"yT (( a s!i t t!at !as a$$ele"ate' eno"mously as a "esult o t!e e$onomi$ $"isis o 2007(2009. 3t t!e !ea"t o t!is geopoliti$al sea $!ange is 5!inaCs "obust e$onomi$ g"owt!. %ot be$ause #eiAing will ne$essa"ily t!"eaten 3me"i$an inte"ests but be$ause a newly powe" ul 5!ina by ne$essity means a "elati8e 'e$line in 3me"i$an powe"7 t!e 8e"y oun'ation o t!e postwa" inte"national o"'e". ,!ese 'e8elopments "emin' us t!at $!anges in t!e global balan$e o powe" $an be su''en an' 'is$ontinuous "at!e" t!an g"a'ual an' e8olutiona"y. ,!e &"eat 6e$ession isnCt t!e $ause
o 2as!ingtonCs ebbing "elati8e powe". #ut it !as Bui$=ene' t"en's t!at al"ea'y !a' been eating away at t!e e'i i$e o U.S. e$onomi$ sup"ema$y. @oo=ing a!ea'7 t!e !ealt! o t!e U.S. e$onomy is t!"eatene' by a gat!e"ing is$al sto"m4 t!at . ,o a8oi' t!ese pe"ils7 t!e U.S. will a$e w"en$!ing $!oi$es. ,!e Obama a'minist"ation an' t!e -e'e"al 6ese"8e !a8e a'opte' poli$ies t!at !a8e '"amati$ally in$"ease' bot! t!e supply o 'olla"s $i"$ulating in t!e U.S. e$onomy an' t!e e'e"al bu'get 'e i$it7 w!i$! bot! t!e #"oo=ings ?nstitution an' t!e 5ong"essional #u'get O i$e estimate will e0$ee' E1 t"illion e8e"y yea" o" at least t!e ne0t 'e$a'e. ?n t!e s!o"t "un7 t!ese poli$ies we"e no 'oubt ne$essa"yD ne8e"t!eless7 in t!e long te"m7 t!ey will almost $e"tainly boome"ang.
e0plo'ing e'e"al 'e i$its
$oul' ignite "unaway in lation an' un'e"mine t!e 'olla"
t!e eno"mous un un'e' liabilities o" entitlement p"og"ams an' t!e $ost o two ongoing wa"s7 an' you $an see t!at 3me"i$aCs long(te"m is$al stability is in Aeopa"'y. 3s t!e 5#O says4 T/8en i t!e "e$o8e"y o$$u"s as p"oAe$te' an' stimulus bill is allowe' to e0pi"e7 t!e $ount"y
3'' t!at to t!e pe"sistent U.S. $u""ent a$$ount 'e i$it7 will a$e t!e !ig!est 'ebt;&D. "atio in *0 yea"s an' an in$"easingly unsustainable an' u"gent is$al p"oblem.T ,!is spells t"ouble a!ea' o" t!e 'olla". ,!e inan$ial p"i8ileges $on e""e' on t!e U.S. by t!e 'olla"Cs un$!allenge' "ese"8e $u""en$y status (( its "ole as t!e p"ima"y o"m o payment o" inte"national t"a'e an' inan$ial t"ansa$tions (( !a8e un'e"pinne' t!e p"eeminent geopoliti$al "ole o t!e Unite' States in inte"national politi$s sin$e t!e en' o 2o"l' 2a" ??. #ut al"ea'y t!e s!a'ow o t!e $oming is$al $"isis !as p"ompte' its main $"e'ito"s7 5!ina an' >apan7 to wo""y t!at in $oming yea"s t!e 'olla" will 'ep"e$iate in 8alue. 5!ina !as been in$"easingly 8o$al in $alling o" t!e 'olla"Cs "epla$ement by a new "ese"8e $u""en$y. 3n' Pu=io Hatoyama7 >apanCs new p"ime ministe"7 a8o"s 3sian e$onomi$ integ"ation an' a single 3sian $u""en$y as substitutes o" e"o'ing U.S. inan$ial an' e$onomi$ powe".
2as!ington will nee' to $ont"ol in lation t!"oug! some $ombination o bu'get $uts7 ta0 in$"eases an' inte"est "ate !i=es. &i8en t!at t!e last two options woul' $!o=e o "enewe' g"owt!7 t!e least unpalatable $!oi$e is to "e'u$e e'e"al spen'ing. ,!is will mean "a'i$ally s$aling ba$= 'e ense e0pen'itu"es7 be$ause 'is$"etiona"y non'e ense spen'ing a$$ounts o" only about 20R o annual e'e"al outlays. ,!is in tu"n will mean a "a'i$al 'iminution o 3me"i$aCs o8e"seas milita"y $ommitments7 t"ans o"ming bot! geopoliti$s an' t!e inte"national e$onomy. Sin$e 194*7 t!e .a0 3me"i$ana !as ma'e inte"national e$onomi$ inte"'epen'en$e an' globali+ation possible. 2!e"eas all states bene it absolutely in an
&oing o"wa"'7 to 'e en' t!e 'olla"7 open inte"national e$onomy7 some states bene it mo"e t!an ot!e"s. ?n t!e no"mal $ou"se o wo"l' politi$s7 t!e "elati8e 'ist"ibution o powe"7 not t!e pu"suit o absolute e$onomi$ gains7 is a $ount"yCs p"in$ipal $on$e"n7 an' t!is 'is$ou"ages e$onomi$ inte"'epen'en$e. ?n t!ei" e o"ts to ensu"e a 'ist"ibution o powe" in t!ei" a8o" an' at t!e e0pense o t!ei" a$tual o" potential "i8als7 states pu"sue auta"=i$ poli$ies (( t!ose 'esigne' to ma0imi+e national
Histo"i$ally7 t!e only way to se$u"e inte"national integ"ation an' inte"'epen'en$e !as been o" a 'ominant powe" to gua"antee t!e se$u"ity o ot!e" states so t!at t!ey nee' not pu"sue auta"=i$ poli$ies o" o"m t"a'ing blo$s to imp"o8e t!ei" "elati8e positions. ,!is suspension o inte"national politi$s t!"oug! !egemony !as been t!e un'amental aim o
sel (su i$ien$y (( p"a$ti$ing $apitalism only wit!in t!ei" bo"'e"s o" among $ount"ies in a t"a'ing blo$. ,!us a t"uly global e$onomy is e0t"ao"'ina"ily 'i i$ult to a$!ie8e. U.S. o"eign poli$y sin$e t!e 1940s. ,!e U.S. !as assume' t!e "esponsibility o" maintaining geopoliti$al stability in /u"ope7 /ast 3sia an' t!e .e"sian &ul 7 an' o" =eeping open t!e lines o $ommuni$ation t!"oug! w!i$! wo"l'
-inan$ially7 t!e U.S. !as been "esponsible o" managing t!e global e$onomy by a$ting as t!e ma"=et an' len'e" o last "eso"t . #ut as ."esi'ent Obama a$=nowle'ge' at t!e @on'on &(20 meeting in 3p"il7 t!e U.S. is no longe" able to play t!is "ole7 an' t!e wo"l' in$"easingly is loo=ing to 5!ina :an' ?n'ia an' ot!e" eme"ging ma"=et states< to be t!e lo$omoti8es o global "e$o8e"y. (( &oing o"wa"'7 t!e is$al $"isis will mean t!at 2as!ington $annot 'is$!a"ge its milita"y un$tions as a !egemon eit!e"7 be$ause it $an no longe" maintain t!e powe" e'ge t!at !as allowe' it to =eep t!e ambitions o t!e eme"ging g"eat powe"s in $!e$=. ,!e enti"e ab"i$ o wo"l' o"'e" t!at t!e Unite' States establis!e' a te" 194* (( t!e .a0 3me"i$ana (( "este' on t!e oun'ation o U.S. milita"y an' e$onomi$ p"epon'e"an$e. 6emo8e t!e oun'ation an' t!e st"u$tu"e $"umbles. ,!e 'e$line o 3me"i$an powe" means t!e en' o U.S. 'ominan$e in wo"l' politi$s an' t!e beginning o t!e t"ansition to a new $onstellation o wo"l' powe"s.
t"a'e mo8es. Sin$e t!e 5ol' 2a"Cs en'7 t!e U.S. !as soug!t to p"ese"8e its !egemony by possessing a ma"gin o milita"y supe"io"ity so 8ast t!at it $an =eep any woul'(be g"eat powe" pliant an' p"ote$te'.
Hegemony Down
7mericans hegemonic dominance as come %o an end> 5idd'e 3as%ern s%a%es are &ecoming increasing 'ess su&ser;ien% and comp'acen% %o i%s in%er;en%ion
0he +ew +a%ion !-2-(10 /ng". 1i"+a -e"'ous 3lam !ttp4;;nation.itte aB.$om;issues;2010;06;2*;news0989.!tm 3 te" t!e $ollapse o So8iet Union7 t!e US too= t!e global lea'e"s!ip as t!e lone supe" powe" an' bestowe' itsel wit! t!e "esponsibility to loo= a te" t!e wo"l' a ai" wit! $omman'ing postu"e. ,!e "esponsibility in$lu'es me''ling in geopoliti$al issue w!i$! t!e US t!in=s "elate' to its inte"est an' inte"est o its allies. -"om 3me"i$an pe"spe$ti8e7 its inte"est sp"ea's in many 'imensions all o8e" t!e wo"l' an' t!e 'i"e$ti8es in "esol8ing t!ose must be alling in line o its $!oosing. -o" t!e last $ouple o yea"s pe"$eption o 'e8eloping $ount"ies 8is(U(8is 3me"i$a !as been $!anging7 espe$ially in t!e 1i''le /ast 'ue to 3me"i$aCs spe$ial T"o$= soli'T "elation wit! t!e state o ?s"ael an' o8e" ent!usiasm o" t!e $ount"ies "ule' by 'i$tato"s. ?n t!e post "e$ession new wo"l' o"'e"7 t!e US appea"s to !a8e lost t!e e'ge o !egemoni$ weig!t. ?t is not winning wa"s in "e$ent time7 putting itsel into Buagmi"e in two wa"s wage' by t!em unilate"ally7 not a$!ie8ing su$$ess in "esol8ing impo"tant wo"l' a ai"s 'espite "epeate' "!eto"i$ o su$$ess by its 'iplomats an' not managing its 'omesti$ e$onomy e i$iently w!i$! is loo'e' wit! to0i$ assets a"ouse 'ue to $"e'it $"un$! o !ousing bubble. 5onseBuently7 t!e 'e8eloping $ount"ies o t!e wo"l' a"e not 8e"y =een to p"o8i'e un$on'itional suppo"t to t!e US 'i$tates any mo"e. -"om t!e point o 8iew o t!ese up$oming $ount"ies7 T "is= o paying p"i$e o" not obeying 3me"i$an 'i"e$ti8es is a 'istant possibilityT. ,!e massi8e s!ow o le0ing mus$le o8e" b"ain bu"st a global pe"$eption bubble about 3me"i$aCs intentions7 $apabilities an' "eason . 2it! t!e massi8e bu"'en o %ational Debt o 13 t"illion Dolla"s on top o its s!oul'e"7 t!e US !as been bogge' 'own in wa" in two "onts in ?"aB an' 3 g!anistan. #ene it $ost analysis a te" many yea"s o milita"y $ampaign in t!ese "egions will not "e8eal en$ou"aging numbe"s o" t!e wa" pun'its w!o inspi"e' an' in luen$e' ."esi'ent #us! >unio" to get into t!e mess. ,!e p"e8ailing state o a ai"s wit!in t!e US an' e8e" 'ete"io"ating wa" situation appea"s to $u"tail its ability to laun$! mo"e maAo" wa"s in t!e a"ea7 alt!oug! appetite o" waging wa" seems 8e"y mu$! eng"osse' in t!e min'set o t!e "emnants o neo$on !aw=s wit!in t!e Obama 3'minist"ation. ?n t!is p"e$a"ious situation7 t!e US $an go
o" anot!e" wa" wit! only bo""owe' money "om eit!e" 5!ina o" Sau'i 3"abia. ,!e p"ospe$ti8e 'ono"s 'o not seem to !a8e t!e gene"osity to in8est money in 3me"i$aCs potential new wa" p"oAe$tV
Hege Down- Se') de)ea%ing 3conomic 2o'icies and 2u&'ic 2ercep%ion

?ayne --10-10 :5!"istop!e"7 -o"me" 6esea"$! -ellow7 ?nte"national Se$u"ity ."og"am7 199*(19967 Graceful Decline !ttp4;;am$onmag.$om;a"ti$le;2010;may;01;00030;7 7;13;10< #ut 3me"i$a is in$"easingly unable to play t!e !egemon9s assigne' "ole. 1ilita"ily7 a !egemon is "esponsible o" stabili+ing =ey "egions an' gua"'ing t!e global $ommons. /$onomi$ally7 it o e"s publi$ goo's by opening its 'omesti$ ma"=et to ot!e" states7 supplying liBui'ity o" t!e wo"l' e$onomy7 an' p"o8i'ing t!e "ese"8e $u""en$y. 3 !egemon is suppose' to sol8e inte"national $"ises7 not $ause t!em. ?t is suppose' to be t!e len'e" o last "eso"t7 not t!e biggest bo""owe". -a$e' wit! wa"s it $annot win o" Buit an' an e$onomy begging "es$ue7 t!e Unite' States no longe" its t!e pa"t . Still7 many in t!e mainst"eam o"eign(poli$y $ommunity see t!ese as tempo"a"y setba$=s an' belie8e t!at U.S. p"ima$y will en'u"e o" yea"s to $ome. ,!e 3me"i$an people a"e awa=ening to a new "eality mo"e Bui$=ly t!an t!e a$a'emy. 3$$o"'ing to a De$embe" 2009 .ew su"8ey7 41 pe"$ent o t!e publi$ belie8es t!at t!e U.S. plays a less impo"tant an' powe" ul "ole as a wo"l' lea'e" less t!an it 'i' a 'e$a'e ago ,!e epo$! o 3me"i$an 'ominan$e is '"awing to a $lose7 an' inte"national politi$s is ente"ing a pe"io' o t"ansition4 no longe" unipola" but not yet ully multipola". ."esi'ent #a"a$= Obama9s %o8embe" 2009 t"ip to 5!ina p"o8i'e' bot! substanti8e an' emblemati$ e8i'en$e o t!e s!i t. 3s t!e -inan$ial ,imes obse"8e'7 H5oming at a moment w!en 5!inese p"estige is g"owing an' t!e U.S. is a$ing eno"mous 'i i$ulties7 1". Obama9s t"ip !as symboli+e' t!e a'8ent o a mo"e multi(pola" wo"l' w!e"e U.S. lea'e"s!ip !as to $o(e0ist wit! se8e"al "ising powe"s7 most notably 5!ina.I ?n t!e same .ew stu'y7 44 pe"$ent o 3me"i$ans polle' sai' t!at 5!ina was t!e lea'ing e$onomi$ powe"D Aust 27 pe"$ent $!ose t!e Unite' States. 1u$! o 3me"i$a9s 'e$line $an be att"ibute' to its own sel ('e eating poli$ies7 but as t!e U.S. stumbles7 ot!e"sLnotably 5!ina7 ?n'ia7 an' 6ussiaLa"e "ising. ,!is s!i t in t!e global balan$e o powe" will '"amati$ally a e$t inte"national politi$s4 t!e li=eli!oo' o intense g"eat(powe" se$u"ity $ompetitionsLan' e8en wa"Lwill in$"easeD t!e $u""ent e"a o globali+ation will en'D an' t!e post(194* .a0 3me"i$ana will be "epla$e' by an inte"national o"'e" t!at "e le$ts t!e inte"ests7 8alues7 an' no"ms o eme"ging powe"s.
Hegemony Down
U.S. Hegemony is uns%a&'e due %o economic &urdens
+ew 7merican 1ounda%ion 10 :1i$!ael @in'7 1i$!ael @in' is .oli$y Di"e$to" o
1eanw!ile7 %ew 3me"i$a9s /$onomi$ &"owt! ."og"am. He is a $o( oun'e" o t!e %ew 3me"i$a -oun'ationtaug!t at Ha"8a"' Uni8e"sity an' >o!ns Hop=ins7 1a"$! 307 H,!e U.S. ?s Stu$= in t!e 5ol' 2a"I !ttp4;;g"owt!.newame"i$a.net;publi$ations;a"ti$les;2010;t!eWusWisWstu$=WinWt!eW$ol'Wwa"W299*1 6;26;10 651<
t!e se$u"ity !al o 3me"i$aCs global st"ategy is !ea'e' o" a $"as! as well. Sin$e t!e en' o t!e 5ol' 2a"7 t!e U.S. !as min'lessly soug!t to ill e8e"y powe" 8a$uum "om t!e #al=ans to t!e .e"sian &ul to 5ent"al 3sia7 w!ile spen'ing a" less on t!e milita"y t!an it 'i' in t!e 5ol' 2a". ,!e U.S. !as gone into 'ebt to inan$e t!e ?"aB an' 3 g!an wa"s. Pou 'onCt !a8e to be a g"an' st"ategist to igu"e out t!at e0ten'ing te""ito"ial $ommitments wit!out $ommensu"ately e0pan'ing un'ing an' t"oop le8els is a o"mula o" st"ategi$ an' pe"!aps national ban="upt$y. #y 'e$la"ing t!at t!e new 'e i$it $ommission woul' not $onsi'e" any $uts in milita"y spen'ing7 only in entitlement spen'ing7 ."esi'ent Obama "e le$te' t!e p"e e"en$es o 3me"i$aCs poli$y elite. ?ts membe"s woul' gla'ly $ut So$ial Se$u"ity an' 1e'i$a"e in o"'e" to pay o" bases an' Tnation(buil'ingT ab"oa'. ?n t!e same way7 o" !al a $entu"y7 3me"i$aCs o"eign(poli$y elite tole"ate' t!e ta"gete' 'ein'ust"iali+ation o 3me"i$a by 3sian me"$antilist states7 as long as t!ose $ount"ies 'i' not $!allenge 3me"i$aCs global milita"y !egemony.
Hege Down- 6or'd Hos%i'e %o 7merican @a'ues despi%e (&ama (;er%ures

6a%son 2010 :3llan7 Depa"tment o
10)
5u""ently7 &eog"ap!y7 Sta o"'s!i"e Uni8e"sity7 U)7 HUS !egemony an' t!e Obama 3'minist"ation4 ,owa"'s a %ew 2o"' O"'e"7I Antipode Vol. 42 No. 2 pg. 243 DA: 7-14-
US !egemony loo=s e0t"emely 8ulne"able7 an' it is less in $omman' o a wo"l' t!at loo=s enti"ely mo"e $lose' an' !ostile to 3me"i$an 8alues. ,!is $on'ition is in pa"t 'ue to a lega$y o isolation "om t!e inte"national $ommunity an' /u"opean allies7 "elations!ips w!i$! Obama must "ebuil' i !e t"uly wis!es to buil' a new 3me"i$an age . Obama !as spo=en openly about t!e tas= o "elations!ip "ebuil'ing7 but w!ile !is wo"'s may suggest a multilate"al app"oa$!7 !is o$us !as been 8e"y mu$! on US global Hlea'e"s!ipI4 ,o "enew 3me"i$an lea'e"s!ip in t!e wo"l'7 ? inten' to "ebuil' t!e allian$es7 pa"tne"s!ips7 an' institutions ne$essa"y to $on "ont $ommon t!"eats an' en!an$e $ommon se$u"ity. %ee'e' "e o"m o t!ese
allian$es an' institutions will not $ome by bullying ot!e" $ount"ies to "ati y $!anges we !at$! in isolation. ?t will $ome w!en we $on8in$e ot!e" go8e"nments an' peoples t!at t!ey7 too7 !a8e a sta=e in e e$ti8e pa"tne"s!ips . . . 3me"i$a $annot meet t!e t!"eats o t!is $entu"y alone7 an' t!e wo"l' $annot meet t!em wit!out 3me"i$a . . .2e must lea' t!e wo"l'7 by 'ee' an' by e0ample :Obama 2007< .
Hegemony Sus%aina&'e
Heg is sus%aina&'e :mu'%ipo'ari%y is nowhere on %he hori/on
*roo<s and 6oh')or%h $ :Step!en7 ."o esso" o
H6es!aping t!e 2o"l' O"'e"I7 /#S5O< &o8e"nment at Da"tmout!7 2illiam 57 ."o esso" o &o8e"nment an' 5!ai" o t!e Depa"tment o &o8e"nment at Da"tmout!7 1a"$!;3p"il 20097
t!e $on8entional wis'om is t!at t!e wo"l' is "api'ly app"oa$!ing t!e en' o t!e unipola" system wit! t!e Unite' States as t!e sole supe"powe". 3 'ispassionate loo= at t!e a$ts s!ows t!at t!is 8iew un'e"states U.S. powe" as mu$! as "e$ent tal= o empi"e e0agge"ate' it. ,!at t!e Unite' States weig!s mo"e on t!e t"a'itional s$ales o wo"l' powe" t!an !as any ot!e" state in mo'e"n !isto"y is as t"ue now as it was w!en t!e $ommentato" 5!a"les )"aut!amme" p"o$laime' t!e a'8ent o a Hunipola" momentI in t!ese pages nea"ly two 'e$a'es ago. ,!e Unite' States $ontinues to a$$ount o" about !al t!e wo"l'9s 'e ense spen'ing an' one(Bua"te" o its e$onomi$ output. Some o t!e "easons o" bea"is!ness $on$e"n publi$ poli$y p"oblems t!at $an be i0e' :e0pensi8e !ealt! $a"e in t!e Unite' States7 o" e0ample<7 w!e"eas many o t!e "easons o" bullis!ness a"e mo"e un'amental :su$! as t!e g"eate" 'emog"ap!i$ $!allenges a$e' by t!e Unite' States9 potential "i8als<. So w!y !as opinion s!i te' so Bui$=ly "om 8isions o empi"e to gloomy 'e$linismJ One "eason is t!at t!e Unite' States9 su$$esses at t!e tu"n o t!e $entu"y le' to i""ational e0ube"an$e7 t!e"eby setting un"easonably !ig! stan'a"'s o" measu"ing t!e supe"powe"9s pe" o"man$e. -"om 1999 to 20037
Only a ew yea"s ago7 pun'its we"e abso"be' in 'ebates about 3me"i$an Hempi"e.I %ow7 seemingly easy U.S. 8i$to"ies in )oso8o7 3 g!anistan7 an' ?"aB le' some to $on$lu'e t!at t!e Unite' States $oul' 'o w!at no g"eat powe" in !isto"y !a' manage' be o"e4 e o"tlessly 'e eat its a'8e"sa"ies. ?t was only a matte" o
3 g!anistan an' ?"aB 'as!e' illusions o omnipoten$e7 but t!ese upsets !a"'ly 'ispla$e' t!e Unite' States as t!e wo"l'9s lea'ing state7 an' t!e"e is no "eason to belie8e t!at t!e milita"ies o its putati8e "i8als woul' !a8e pe" o"me' any bette". ,!e Unite' States 'i' not $ease to be a supe"powe" w!en its poli$ies in 5uba an' Fietnam aile' in t!e 1960sD bipola"ity li8e' on o" t!"ee 'e$a'es. @i=ewise7 t!e Unite' States "emains t!e sole supe"powe" to'ay. 3not!e" =ey "eason o" t!e multipola" mania is Ht!e "ise o t!e "est.I ?mp"esse' by t!e "api' e$onomi$ g"owt! o 5!ina an' ?n'ia7 many w"ite as i multipola"ity !as al"ea'y "etu"ne'. #ut su$! p"onoun$ements mista=e $u""ent t"aAe$to"ies o" inal out$omes La
time be o"e su$! pie(in(t!e(s=y ben$!ma"=s p"o8e' unattainable. SubseBuent 'i i$ulties in $ommon st"ategi$ e""o" wit! 'eep psy$!ologi$al "oots. ,!e g"eatest $on$e"n in t!e 5ol' 2a"7 o" e0ample7 $ame not "om t!e So8iet Union9s a$tually attaining pa"ity wit! t!e Unite' States but "om t!e e0pe$tation t!at it woul' 'o so in t!e utu"e. Fete"ans o t!at e"a "e$all !ow t!e laun$! o Sputni= in 19*7 e' t!e pe"$eption t!at So8iet powe" was g"owing "api'ly7 lea'ing some poli$yma=e"s an' analysts to sta"t a$ting as i t!e So8iet Union we"e
3 state t!at is "ising s!oul' not be $on use' wit! one t!at !as "isen7 Aust as a state t!at is 'e$lining s!oul' not be w"itten o as !a8ing al"ea'y 'e$line'. 5!ina is gene"ally seen as t!e $ount"y best positione' to eme"ge as a supe"powe" $!allenge" to t!e Unite' States. Pet 'epen'ing on !ow one measu"es &D.7 5!ina9s e$onomy is between 20 pe"$ent an' 43 pe"$ent t!e si+e o t!e Unite' States9. 1o"e '"amati$ is t!e 'i e"en$e in &D. pe" $apita7 o" w!i$! all measu"es s!ow 5!ina9s as being less t!an 10 pe"$ent o t!e Unite' States9. 3bsent a 1930s(style 'ep"ession t!at spa"es potential U.S. "i8als7 t!e Unite' States will not be "epla$e' as t!e sole supe"powe" o" a 8e"y long time. 6eal multipola"ityLan inte"national system o t!"ee o" mo"e e8enly mat$!e' powe"sLis nowhere on %he hori/on. 6elati8e powe" between states s!i ts slowly. ,!is ten'en$y to $on late t"en's wit! out$omes is o ten '"i8en by t!e e0amination in isolation o $e"tain $omponents o state powe". ? t!e !abit 'u"ing t!e 5ol' 2a" was to o$us on milita"y powe"7 t!e "e$ent t"en' !as been to single out e$onomi$ output. %o 'e$linist t"a$t is $omplete wit!out a passage noting t!at alt!oug! t!e Unite' States may "emain a milita"y supe"powe"7 e$onomi$ multipola"ity is7 o" soon will be7 t!e o"'e" o t!e 'ay. 1u$! as !ig!lig!ting t!e So8iet Union9s milita"y powe" meant o8e"loo=ing t!e $ount"y9s e$onomi$ an' te$!nologi$al eet o $lay7 e0amining only e$onomi$ output means putting on blin'e"s. ?n 19917 >apan9s e$onomy was two(t!i"'s t!e si+e o t!e Unite' States97 w!i$!7 a$$o"'ing to t!e $u""ent popula" met"i$7 woul' mean t!at wit! t!e So8iet Union9s 'emise7
al"ea'y as powe" ul as t!e Unite' States. t!e wo"l' s!i te' "om bipola"ity to7 well7 bipola"ity. Su$! a pa"tial assessment o powe" will p"o'u$e no mo"e a$$u"ate an analysis to'ay. %o" will gi8ing in to app"e!ension about t!e g"owing impo"tan$e o nonstate a$to"s. ,!e
nonstate a$to"s a"e not!ing newL$ompa"e t!e s$ale an' s$ope o to'ay9s pi"ates o t!e Somali $oast wit! t!ose o t!ei" eig!teent!($entu"y p"e'e$esso"s o" t!e politi$al powe" o to'ay9s multinational $o"po"ations wit! t!at o su$! be!emot!s as t!e #"itis! /ast ?n'ia 5ompanyLan' p"oAe$tions o t!ei" "ise may well be as mu$! !ype as "e le$tions o "eality. 3n' e8en i t!e powe" o nonstate a$to"s is "ising7 t!is s!oul' only in$"ease t!e in$enti8es o" inte"state $oope"ation D nonstate t!"eats 'o not a e$t Aust t!e Unite' States. 1ost nonstate a$to"s9 be!a8io"7 mo"eo8e"7 still "e8ol8es a"oun' in luen$ing t!e 'e$isions o states. %ongo8e"nmental o"gani+ations typi$ally o$us on t"ying to get states to $!ange t!ei" poli$ies7 an' t!e same is t"ue o most te""o"ists.
%ational ?ntelligen$e 5oun$il9s "epo"t Global Trends 2025 g"abbe' !ea'lines by o"e$asting t!e $oming multipola"ity7 anti$ipating a powe" s!i t as mu$! to nonstate a$to"s as to ast(g"owing $ount"ies. #ut
10
Hegemony Sus%aina&'e
Heg is sus%aina&'e and good : a'%erna%i;es )ai' and s%ruc%ura' ad;an%ages
?ie&er $
:6obe"t >. @iebe"7 ."o esso" o &o8e"nment at &eo"getown Uni8e"sity7 H.e"sistent p"ima$y an' t!e utu"e o t!e 3me"i$an e"aI7 ?nte"national .oliti$s :2009< 467 119X139. 'oi410.10*7;ip.2008.44 <
e e$ti8e alte"nati8es to t!e "ole playe' by t!e Unite' States ten' to be ina'eBuate o" absent altoget!e"7 an' neit!e" t!e U%7 no" ot!e" inte"national bo'ies su$! as t!e /U7 t!e 3 "i$an Union7 t!e 3"ab @eague o" t!e 3sso$iation o Sout!east 3sian %ations o e" an e e$ti8e substitute. 3s 6obe"t )agan !as obse"8e'7 Y3me"i$an p"e'ominan$e 'oes not stan' in t!e way o p"og"ess towa"' a bette" wo"l'. ?t stan's in t!e way o "eg"ession towa"' a mo"e 'ange"ous wo"l'9 :)agan7 2007<. ?n s!o"t7 on t!e 'eman' si'e7 t!e"e is an ample nee' o" 3me"i$a9s a$ti8e engagement. 2!at t!en about t!e supply si'eJ ,!e 'omesti$ $osts an' $ompli$ations a"e e8i'ent but nee' to be weig!e' in $onte0t. ,!e long(te"m "eality o e0te"nal t!"eats $"eates a moti8ation o" engagement ab"oa'7 as 'oes t!e possibility o utu"e atta$=s on t!e US !omelan'. Du"ing t!e 2008 p"esi'ential $ampaign7 an' 'espite a !eate' 'omesti$ politi$al $limate an' s!a"p 'isag"eement about ?"aB an' t!e o"eign poli$y o t!e #us! a'minist"ation7 none o t!e lea'ing $an'i'ates o eit!e" pa"ty $alle' o" '"amati$ "et"en$!ment. ?n a''ition7 t!ey la"gely $on$u""e' on t!e nee' to in$"ease t!e si+e o t!e a"me' o"$es. ?n'ee'7 an' unli=e t!e Fietnam e"a7 popula" suppo"t o" t!e t"oops !as been wi'esp"ea'7 e8en among many $"iti$s o t!e ?"aB wa". 5onst"aints on t!e $apa$ity o a'8e"sa"ies also nee' to be ta=en into a$$ount. 6ussia un'e" .utin !as put p"essu"e on its imme'iate neig!bo"s an' see=s to "ebuil' its a"me' o"$es7 but 1os$ow9s ability to "egain t!e supe"powe" status o t!e o"me" So8iet Union "emains limite'. ,!e 6ussian a"me' o"$es "emain mostly in wea=ene' $on'ition 7 t!e
?n gene"al7 total population is !al t!at o t!e USS6 an' 'e$lining by 700 000 pe" yea"7 male li e e0pe$tan$y is ba"ely 60 yea"s o age7 t!e e$onomy is o8e"w!elmingly 'epen'ent on "e8enues "om oil an' natu"al gas an' t!us 8ulne"able to
,!e long(te"m stability o its $"ony $apitalism an' in$"easingly aut!o"ita"ian politi$al system is un$e"tain. 5!ina7 'espite e0t"ao"'ina"y e$onomi$ g"owt! an' mo'e"ni+ation7 will $ontinue to 'epen' on "api' e0pansion o t"a'e an' t!e abso"ption o 8ast numbe"s o people mo8ing "om t!e $ount"ysi'e to t!e $ities. ?t may well be$ome a maAo" milita"y $!allenge" o t!e Unite' States7 i"st "egionally an' e8en globally7 but only o8e" t!e 8e"y long te"m. Demog"ap!y also wo"=s to t!e a'8antage o t!e Unite' States. 1ost ot!e" powe" ul states7 in$lu'ing 5!ina an' 6ussia as well as &e"many an' >apan7 a$e t!e signi i$ant aging o t!ei" populations. 3lt!oug! t!e Unite' States nee's to inan$e t!e $osts o an aging population7 t!is 'emog"ap!i$ s!i t is o$$u""ing to a lesse" e0tent an' mo"e slowly t!an among its $ompetito"s. 1a"= Haas a"gues t!at t!ese a$to"s in global aging Ywill be a potent o"$e o" t!e $ontinuation o US powe" 'ominan$e7 bot! e$onomi$ an' milita"y9 :Haas7 20077 p. 113<. -inally7 t!e Unite' States bene its "om two ot!e" uniBue att"ibutes7 le0ibility an' a'aptability. ,ime an' again7 3me"i$a !as a$e' 'aunting $!allenges an' ma'e mista=es7 yet it !as possesse' t!e in8enti8eness an' so$ietal le0ibility to a'Aust an' "espon' su$$ess ully. Despite ob8ious p"oblems7 not least t!e global inan$ial $"isis7 t!e"e is "eason to belie8e t!at 3me"i$a9s a'apti8e $apa$ity will allow it to "espon' to utu"e "eBui"ements an' t!"eats. %one o t!is assu"es t!e maintenan$e o its wo"l' "ole7 but t!e 'omesti$ un'e"pinnings to suppo"t t!is engagement "emain "elati8ely "obust. ,!us o" t!e o"eseeable utu"e7 US p"ima$y is li=ely to be sustainable. 3me"i$a9s own national inte"est X an' t!e o"tunes o a global libe"al 'emo$"ati$ o"'e" X 'epen' on it.
so tening wo"l' ma"=et p"i$es.
11
Hegemony Unsus%aina&'e
3;en i) %he US physica''y can remain i%s dominance> percep%ion o) )inancia' wea<ness ma<es hege unsus%aina&'e.
1erguson> 10 M 1a"$!;3p"il7 %iall7 H5omple0ity an' 5ollapseI7 @au"en$e 3. ,is$! ."o esso" o
-i"st7 Histo"y at Ha"8a"' Uni8e"sity7 a -ellow at >esus 5ollege7 O0 o"'7 an' a Senio" -ellow at t!e Hoo8e" ?nstitution at Stan o"' Uni8e"sity7 p. ebs$oN ? empi"es a"e $omple0 systems t!at soone" o" late" su$$umb to su''en an' $atast"op!i$ mal un$tions7 "at!e" t!an $y$ling se'ately "om 3"$a'ia to 3pogee to 3"mage''on7 w!at a"e t!e impli$ations o" t!e Unite' States to'ayJ
'ebating t!e stages o 'e$line may be a waste o time (( it is a p"e$ipitous an' une0pe$te' all t!at s!oul' most $on$e"n poli$yma=e"s an' $iti+ens. Se$on'7 most impe"ial alls a"e asso$iate' wit! is$al $"ises. 3ll t!e abo8e $ases we"e ma"=e' by s!a"p imbalan$es between "e8enues an' e0pen'itu"es7 as well as 'i i$ulties wit! inan$ing publi$ de&%. 7'arm &e''s shou'd %here)ore &e ringing ;ery 'oud'y> in'ee'7 as t!e Unite' States $ontemplates a 'e i$it o" 2009 o mo"e t!an E1.4 t"illion (( about 11.2 pe"$ent o &D.7 t!e biggest 'e i$it in 60 yea"s (( an' anot!e" o" 2010 t!at will not be mu$! smalle". .ubli$ 'ebt7 meanw!ile7 is set to mo"e t!an 'ouble in t!e $oming 'e$a'e7 "om E*.8 t"illion in 2008 to E14.3 t"illion in 2019. 2it!in t!e same time "ame7 inte"est payments on t!at 'ebt a"e o"e$ast to leap "om eig!t pe"$ent o e'e"al "e8enues to 17 pe"$ent. ,!ese numbe"s a"e ba'7 but in t!e "ealm o politi$al entities7 t!e "ole o pe"$eption is Aust as $"u$ial7 i) no% more so. ?n impe"ial $"ises7 it is not t!e mate"ial un'e"pinnings o powe" t!at "eally matte" but e0pe$tations about utu"e powe" . ,!e is$al numbe"s $ite' abo8e $annot e"o'e U.S. st"engt! on t!ei" own7 but t!ey $an wo"= to wea=en a long(assume' ait! in t!e Unite' StatesC ability to weat!e" any $"isis. -o" now7 t!e wo"l' still e0pe$ts t!e Unite' States to mu''le t!"oug!7 e8entually $on "onting its p"oblems w!en7 as 5!u"$!ill amously sai'7 all t!e alte"nati8es !a8e been e0!auste'. ,!"oug! t!is lens7 past ala"ms about t!e 'e i$it seem o8e"blown7 an' 2080 (( w!en t!e U.S. 'ebt may "ea$! stagge"ing p"opo"tions (( seems a long way o 7 lea8ing plenty o time to plug t!e is$al !ole. #ut one 'ay7 a seemingly "an'om pie$e o ba' news (( pe"!aps a negati8e "epo"t by a "ating agen$y (( will ma=e t!e !ea'lines 'u"ing an ot!e"wise Buiet news $y$le. Su''enly7 it will be not Aust a ew poli$y won=s w!o wo""y about t!e sustainability o U.S. is$al poli$y but also t!e publi$ at la"ge7 not to mention in8esto"s ab"oa'. ?t is t!is s!i t t!at is $"u$ial4 a $omple0 a'apti8e system is in big t"ouble w!en its $omponent pa"ts lose ait! in its 8iability. O8e" t!e last t!"ee yea"s7 t!e $omple0 system o t!e global e$onomy lippe' "om boom to bust (( all be$ause a bun$! o 3me"i$ans sta"te' to 'e ault on t!ei" subp"ime mo"tgages7 t!e"eby blowing !uge !oles in t!e business mo'els o t!ousan's o !ig!ly le8e"age' inan$ial institutions. ,!e ne0t p!ase o t!e $u""ent $"isis may begin w!en t!e publi$ begins to "eassess t!e $"e'ibility o t!e moneta"y an' is$al measu"es t!at t!e Obama a'minist"ation !as ta=en in "esponse. %eit!e" inte"est "ates at +e"o no" is$al stimulus $an a$!ie8e a sustainable "e$o8e"y i people in t!e Unite' States an' ab"oa' $olle$ti8ely 'e$i'e 7 o8e"nig!t7 t!at su$! measu"es will lea' to mu$! !ig!e" in lation "ates o" out"ig!t 'e ault. 3s ,!omas Sa"gent7 an e$onomist w!o pionee"e' t!e i'ea o "ational e0pe$tations7 'emonst"ate' mo"e t!an 20 yea"s ago7 su$! 'e$isions a"e sel ( ul illing4 it
is not t!e base supply o money t!at 'ete"mines in lation but t!e 8elo$ity o its $i"$ulation7 w!i$! in tu"n is a un$tion o e0pe$tations. ?n t!e same way7 it is not t!e 'ebt(to(&D. "atio t!at 'ete"mines go8e"nment sol8en$y but t!e inte"est "ate t!at in8esto"s 'eman'. #on' yiel's $an s!oot up i e0pe$tations $!ange about utu"e go8e"nment sol8en$y7 intensi ying an al"ea'y ba' is$al $"isis by '"i8ing up t!e $ost o inte"est payments on new 'ebt. >ust as=
7 a s!i t in e0pe$tations about moneta"y an' is$al poli$y $oul' o"$e a "eassessment o utu"e U.S. o"eign poli$y. ,!e"e is a +e"o(sum game at t!e !ea"t o t!e bu'geta"y p"o$ess4 i inte"est payments $onsume a "ising p"opo"tion o ta0 "e8enue7 milita"y e0pen'itu"e is t!e item most li=ely to be $u t be$ause7 unli=e man'ato"y entitlements7
&"ee$e (( it !appene' t!e"e at t!e en' o last yea"7 plunging t!e $ount"y into is$al an' politi$al $"isis. -inally it is 'is$"etiona"y. 3 U.S. p"esi'ent w!o says !e will 'eploy 307000 a''itional t"oops to 3 g!anistan an' t!en7 in 18 mont!sC time7 sta"t wit!'"awing t!em again al"ea'y !as somet!ing o a $"e'ibility p"oblem. 3n' w!at about t!e Unite' StatesC ot!e" st"ategi$ $!allengesJ -o" t!e Unite' StatesC enemies in ?"an an' ?"aB7 it must be $onsoling to =now t!at U.S. is$al poli$y to'ay is p"ep"og"amme' to "e'u$e t!e "esou"$es a8ailable o" all o8e"seas milita"y ope"ations in t!e yea"s a!ea'
12
Hegemony Unsus%aina&'e
S%ruc%ura' 1inancia' 2ro&'ems ma<es US Hege Unsus%aina&'e
?ayne --1-10 :5!"istop!e"7 Christopher Layne is Professor and Robert M. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A
M!s Geor"e #.$. %ush School of Go&ern'ent Public Ser&ice. #e is author of ,!e .ea$e o ?llusions4 3me"i$an &"an' St"ategy "om 1940 to t!e ."esent and( )ith %radley A. Thayer( 3me"i$an /mpi"e4 3 Debate. H,race)u' Dec'ine8 0he end o) 2a4 7mericanaA h%%p8BBamconmag.comBar%ic'eB2010BmayB01B00030B D78 "B1 B10C
5!ina9s e$onomy !as been g"owing mu$! mo"e "api'ly t!an t!e Unite' States9 o8e" t!e last two 'e$a'es an' $ontinues to 'o so7 maintaining au'a$ious 8 pe"$ent g"owt! p"oAe$tions in t!e mi'st o a global "e$ession. @ea'ing e$onomi$ o"e$aste"s p"e'i$t t!at it will o8e"ta=e t!e U.S. as t!e wo"l'9s la"gest e$onomy7 measu"e' by o8e"all &D.7 sometime a"oun' 2020. 3l"ea'y in 20087 5!ina passe' t!e U.S. as t!e wo"l'9s lea'ing manu a$tu"ing nationLa title t!e Unite' States !a' enAoye' o" o8e" a $entu"yLan' t!is yea" 5!ina will 'ispla$e >apan as t!e wo"l'9s se$on'(la"gest e$onomy. /8e"yt!ing we =now about t!e t"aAe$to"ies o "ising g"eat powe"s tells us t!at 5!ina will use its in$"easing wealt! to buil' o"mi'able milita"y powe" an' t!at it will see= to be$ome t!e 'ominant powe" in /ast 3sia. Optimists $onten' t!at on$e t!e U.S. "e$o8e"s "om w!at !isto"ian %iall -e"guson $alls t!e H&"eat 6ep"essionILnot Buite a 'ep"ession but mo"e t!an a "e$essionLwe9ll be able to answe" t!e 5!inese $!allenge. ,!e $ount"y7 t!ey "emin' us7 a$e' a la"ge" 'ebt(&D. "atio a te" 2o"l' 2a" ?? yet emba"=e' on an e"a o sustaine' g"owt!. ,!ey o"get t!at t!e postwa" e"a was a gol'en age o U.S. in'ust"ial an' inan$ial 'ominan$e7 t"a'e su"pluses7 an' pe"sistent !ig! g"owt! "ates. 0hose days are gone. ,!e Unite' States o 2010 an' t!e wo"l' in w!i$! it li8es a"e a" 'i e"ent "om t!ose o 194*. 2ea=nesses in t!e un'amentals o t!e 3me"i$an e$onomy !a8e been a$$umulating o" mo"e t!an t!"ee 'e$a'es. ?n t!e 1980s7 t!ese p"oblems we"e a$utely 'iagnose' by a numbe" o w"ite"sLnotably Da8i' 5alleo7 .aul )enne'y7 6obe"t &ilpin7 Samuel Huntington7 an' >ames 5!a$eLw!o p"e'i$te' t!at %hese s%ruc%ura' i''s wou'd u'%ima%e'y erode %he economic )ounda%ions o) 7mericaDs g'o&a' preeminence. 3 spi"ite' late(1980s 'ebate was $ut s!o"t7 w!en7 in Bui$= su$$ession7 t!e So8iet Union $ollapse'7 >apan9s e$onomi$ bubble bu"st7 an' t!e U.S. e0pe"ien$e' an appa"ent e$onomi$ "e8i8al 'u"ing t!e 5linton a'minist"ation. %ow t!e 'elaye' 'ay o "e$=oning is ast app"oa$!ing.
13
())shore *a'ancing +ow

(&amaDs %urning in now> o))shore &a'ancing is %he &es% s%ra%egy %o main%ain primacy
6a'% 9;28;0$ :Step!en7 ."o esso" o
,!e t!ing7 ? suspe$t it ?nte"national 6elations at Ha"8a"' Uni8e"sity7 H2!y we 'onCt nee' anot!e" T%ational St"ategyT 'o$umentI7 !ttp4;;walt. o"eignpoli$y.$om;posts;2009;09;27;w!yWweW'ontWnee'Wanot!e"WnationalWst"ategyW'o$ument<
Obama a'minist"ation !asnCt o e"e' us its 8e"sion o ou" Tnational se$u"ity st"ategyT yet7 an' 'espite e8e"yt!ing ? Aust sai'7 ?Cm beginning to wis! t!ey we"enCt $ompelle' to 'o so by law. -o" one will loo= a lot li=e t!e 5linton a'minist"ationCs 8e"sions7 an' $onsist o a long Tto('oT list '"awn "om amilia" libe"al inte"8entionist 'ogma. #ut mo"e impo"tantly7 t!is is one o t!ose pe"io's w!e"e t!e main eatu"es o U.S. g"an' st"ategy may not be easy to tal= about openly an' !onestly . ?n simple te"ms7 w!at Obama seems to be attempting is a wi'e("anging p"o$ess o sele$ti8e "et"en$!ment . ,!is is !a"'ly su"p"ising7 be$ause t!e #us! a'minist"ation got us ba'ly o8e"$ommitte' an' "e use' to "aise ta0es to pay o" it. So Obama is getting us out o ?"aB7 an' appea"s to be "et!in=ing !is app"oa$! to 3 g!anistan. HeCs ma=ing $onst"u$ti8e $on$essions to a numbe" o potential a'8e"sa"ies :su$! as 6ussia<7 in o"'e" to gain t!ei" suppo"t on mo"e p"essing issues :su$! as ?"an< HeCs telling !is Se$"eta"y o De ense to "ein in 'e ense $osts7 emp!asi+ing 'iploma$y at e8e"y tu"n7 an' letting e8e"yone =now t!at Un$le Sam isnCt going to sol8e all t!e wo"l'Cs p"oblems all by itsel . HeCs not "et"eating to -o"t"ess 3me"i$a7 o $ou"se7 but !e an' !is team a"enCt swagge"ing a"oun' saying t!at 3me"i$a is t!e Tin'ispensable nationT eit!e". &i8en t!e mess !e in!e"ite' "om #us! an' t!e nee' to "epai" 3me"i$aCs publi$ inan$es7 t!is app"oa$! ma=es eminently goo' sense. #ut w!en youC"e s g"eat powe" engage' in a p"o$ess o "et"en$!ment7 you p"obably 'onCt want a'8e"tise t!at a$t in you" o i$ial statement o Tnational se$u"ity st"ategy.T ? you 'o7 youCll Aust get a lot o la= "om !a"'line"s7 w!o still !a8enCt igu"e' out t!at t!e p"e8ious eig!t yea"s was mostly a 'isaste" an' t!at U.S. "esou"$es a"enCt in inite. 3n' a ew mino" a'8e"sa"ies may 'e$i'e to test you" limits7 an' youC' "at!e" not !a8e to waste time "espon'ing. Spelling t!ings out e0pli$itly mig!t also ma=e some 3me"i$ans ne"8ous7 be$ause t!eyC8e gotten use' to 3me"i$a being Z1 an' t!eyC8e o"gotten t!at t!e best way to stay t!e"e is to get ot!e"s to 'o t!e !ea8y li ting instea' o t"ying to 'o it all ou"sel8es. Obama s!oul' sti$= to !is p"esent $ou"se (( as subtly an' Buietly
as possible (( an' w!en itCs time to ul ill t!at Se$tion 603 "eBui"ement7 !e s!oul' as= !is a'8iso"s to w"ite up a st"ategy statement t!at 'oes not spell out w!at is "eally going on. 3n' i t!ey $an ma=e it su i$iently bo"ing so t!at nobo'y pays mu$! attention7 so mu$! t!e bette".
14
====Hege ,ood==== Hege ,ood- .agan

US 'eadership pre;en%s mu'%ip'e scenarios )or nuc'ear con)'ic% : pre)er i% %o a'' o%her a'%erna%i;es
.agan 0"
Senio" 3sso$iate at t!e 5a"negie /n'owment o" ?nte"national .ea$e M6obe"t H/n' o D"eams7 6etu"n o Histo"yI .oli$y 6e8iew :!ttp4;;www.!oo8e".o"g;publi$ations;poli$y"e8iew;8**2*12.!tmlZn10<N
3me"i$ans !a8e insiste' on p"ese"8ing "egional p"e'ominan$e in /ast 3siaD t!e 1i''le /astD t!e 2este"n Hemisp!e"e D until "e$ently7 /u"opeD an' now7 in$"easingly7 5ent"al 3sia. ,!is was its goal a te" t!e Se$on' 2o"l' 2a"7 an' sin$e t!e en' o t!e 5ol' 2a"7 beginning wit! t!e i"st #us! a'minist"ation an' $ontinuing t!"oug! t!e 5linton yea"s7 t!e Unite' States 'i' not "et"a$t but e0pan'e' its in luen$e eastwa"' a$"oss /u"ope an' into t!e 1i''le /ast7 5ent"al 3sia7 an' t!e 5au$asus. /8en as it maintains its position as t!e p"e'ominant global powe"7 it is also engage' in !egemoni$ $ompetitions in t!ese "egions wit! 5!ina in /ast an' 5ent"al 3sia 7 wit! ?"an in t!e 1i''le /ast an' 5ent"al 3sia7 an' wit! 6ussia in /aste"n /u"ope7 5ent"al 3sia7 an' t!e 5au$asus. ,!e Unite' States7 too7 is mo"e o a t"a'itional t!an a postmo'e"n powe"7 an' t!oug! 3me"i$ans
-inally7 t!e"e is t!e Unite' States itsel . 3s a matte" o national poli$y st"et$!ing ba$= a$"oss nume"ous a'minist"ations7 Demo$"ati$ an' 6epubli$an7 libe"al an' $onse"8ati8e7 a"e loat! to a$=nowle'ge it7 t!ey gene"ally p"e e" t!ei" global pla$e as H%o. 1I an' a"e eBually loat! to "elinBuis! it. On$e !a8ing ente"e' a "egion7 w!et!e" o" p"a$ti$al o" i'ealisti$ "easons7 t!ey a"e "ema"=ably slow to wit!'"aw "om it until t!ey belie8e t!ey !a8e substantially t"ans o"me' it in t!ei" own image. ,!ey p"o ess in'i e"en$e to t!e wo"l' an' $laim t!ey Aust want to be le t alone e8en as t!ey see= 'aily to s!ape t!e be!a8io" o billions o
,!e Aostling o" status an' in luen$e among t!ese ambitious nations an' woul'(be nations is a se$on' 'e ining eatu"e o t!e new post(5ol' 2a" inte"national system. %ationalism in all its o"ms is ba$= 7 i it e8e" went away7 an' so is inte"national $ompetition o" powe"7 in luen$e7 !ono"7 an' status. 3me"i$an p"e'ominan$e p"e8ents t!ese "i8al"ies "om intensi ying L its "egional as well as its global p"e'ominan$e. 2e"e t!e Unite' States to 'iminis! its in luen$e in t!e "egions w!e"e it is $u""ently t!e st"ongest powe" 7 t!e ot!e" nations woul' settle 'isputes as g"eat an' lesse" powe"s !a8e 'one in t!e past4 sometimes t!"oug! 'iploma$y an' a$$ommo'ation but o ten t!"oug! $on "ontation an' wa"s o 8a"ying s$ope7 intensity7 an' 'est"u$ti8eness. One no8el aspe$t o su$! a multipola" wo"l' is t!at most o t!ese powe"s woul' possess nu$lea" weapons. ,!at $oul' ma=e wa"s between t!em less li=ely7 o" it $oul' simply ma=e t!em mo"e $atast"op!i$. ?t is easy but also 'ange"ous to un'e"estimate t!e "ole t!e Unite' States plays in p"o8i'ing a measu"e o stability in t!e wo"l' e8en as it also 'is"upts stability. -o" instan$e7 t!e Unite' States is t!e 'ominant na8al powe" e8e"yw!e"e7 su$! t!at ot!e" nations $annot $ompete wit! it e8en in t!ei" !ome wate"s. ,!ey eit!e" !appily o" g"u'gingly allow t!e Unite' States %a8y to be t!e gua"anto" o inte"national wate"ways an' t"a'e "outes7 o inte"national a$$ess to ma"=ets an' "aw mate"ials su$! as oil. /8en w!en t!e U nite' States engages in a wa"7 it is able to play its "ole as gua"'ian o t!e wate"ways. ?n a mo"e genuinely multipola" wo"l'7 !owe8e"7 it woul' not. %ations woul' $ompete o" na8al 'ominan$e at least in t!ei" own "egions an' possibly beyon'. 5on li$t between nations woul' in8ol8e st"uggles on t!e o$eans as well as on lan'. 3"me' emba"gos7 o t!e =in' use' in 2o"l' 2a" i an' ot!e" maAo" $on li$ts7 woul' 'is"upt t"a'e lows in a way t!at is now impossible. Su$! o"'e" as e0ists in t!e wo"l' "ests not only on t!e goo'will o peoples but also on 3me"i$an powe". Su$! o"'e" as e0ists in t!e wo"l' "ests not me"ely on t!e goo'will o peoples but on
people a"oun' t!e globe. a oun'ation p"o8i'e' by 3me"i$an powe". /8en t!e /u"opean Union7 t!at g"eat geopoliti$al mi"a$le7 owes its oun'ing to 3me"i$an powe"7 o" wit!out it t!e /u"opean nations a te" 2o"l' 2a" ii woul' ne8e" !a8e elt se$u"e
e8en to'ay /u"ope9s stability 'epen's on t!e gua"antee7 !owe8e" 'istant an' one !opes unne$essa"y7 t!at t!e Unite' States $oul' step in to $!e$= any 'ange"ous 'e8elopment on t!e $ontinent. ?n a genuinely multipola" wo"l'7 t!at woul' not be possible wit!out "enewing t!e 'ange" o wo"l' wa". .eople w!o belie8e g"eate" eBuality among nations woul' be p"e e"able to t!e p"esent 3me"i$an p"e'ominan$e o ten su$$umb to a basi$ logi$al alla$y. ,!ey belie8e t!e o"'e" t!e wo"l' enAoys to'ay e0ists in'epen'ently o 3me"i$an powe". ,!ey imagine t!at in a wo"l' w!e"e 3me"i$an powe" was 'iminis!e'7 t!e aspe$ts o inte"national o"'e" t!at t!ey li=e woul' "emain in pla$e. #ut t!at9s not t!e way it wo"=s. ?nte"national o"'e" 'oes not "est on i'eas an' institutions. ?t is s!ape' by $on igu"ations o powe". ,!e inte"national o"'e" we =now to'ay "e le$ts t!e 'ist"ibution o powe" in t!e wo"l' sin$e 2o"l' 2a" ii7 an' espe$ially sin$e t!e en' o t!e 5ol' 2a". 3 'i e"ent $on igu"ation o powe"7 a multipola" wo"l' in w!i$! t!e poles we"e 6ussia7 5!ina7 t!e Unite' States7 ?n'ia7 an' /u"ope7 woul' p"o'u$e its own =in' o o"'e"7 wit! 'i e"ent "ules an' no"ms "e le$ting t!e inte"ests o t!e powe" ul states t!at woul' !a8e a !an' in s!aping it. 2oul' t!at inte"national o"'e" be an imp"o8ementJ .e"!aps o" #eiAing an' 1os$ow it woul'. #ut it is 'oubt ul t!at it woul' suit t!e tastes o enlig!tenment libe"als in t!e Unite' States an' /u"ope. ,!e $u""ent o"'e"7 o $ou"se7 is not only a" "om pe" e$t but also o e"s no gua"antee against maAo" $on li$t among t!e wo"l'9s g"eat powe"s. /8en un'e" t!e umb"ella o unipola"ity7 "egional $on li$ts in8ol8ing t!e la"ge powe"s may e"upt. 2a" $oul' e"upt between 5!ina an' ,aiwan an' '"aw in bot! t!e Unite' States an' >apan. 2a" $oul' e"upt between 6ussia an' &eo"gia7 o"$ing
enoug! to "einteg"ate &e"many. 1ost /u"opeans "e$oil at t!e t!oug!t7 but t!e Unite' States an' its /u"opean allies to 'e$i'e w!et!e" to inte"8ene o" su e" t!e $onseBuen$es o a 6ussian 8i$to"y. 5on li$t between ?n'ia an' .a=istan "emains possible7 as 'oes $on li$t between ?"an an' ?s"ael o" ot!e"
Su$! $on li$ts may be una8oi'able no matte" w!at poli$ies t!e Unite' States pu"sues. #ut t!ey a"e mo"e li=ely to e"upt i t!e Unite' States wea=ens o" wit!'"aws "om its positions o "egional 'ominan$e. ,!is is espe$ially t"ue in /ast 3sia7 w!e"e most nations ag"ee t!at a "eliable 3me"i$an powe" !as a stabili+ing an' pa$i i$ e e$t on t!e "egion. ,!at is $e"tainly t!e 8iew o most o 5!ina9s neig!bo"s. #ut e8en 5!ina7 w!i$! see=s g"a'ually to supplant t!e Unite' States as t!e 'ominant powe" in t!e "egion7 a$es t!e 'ilemma t!at an 3me"i$an wit!'"awal $oul' unleas! an M5ontinue' wit! no te0te' "emo8e'N[
1i''le /aste"n states. ,!ese7 too7 $oul' '"aw in ot!e" g"eat powe"s7 in$lu'ing t!e Unite' States.
ambitious7 in'epen'ent7 nationalist >apan. ?n /u"ope7 too7 t!e 'epa"tu"e o t!e Unite' States "om t!e s$ene L e8en i it "emaine' t!e wo"l'9s most powe" ul nation L $oul' be 'estabili+ing. ?t $oul' tempt 6ussia to an e8en mo"e o8e"bea"ing an' potentially o"$e ul app"oa$! to un"uly nations on its pe"ip!e"y. 3lt!oug! some "ealist t!eo"ists seem to imagine t!at t!e 'isappea"an$e o t!e So8iet Union put an en' to t!e possibility o $on "ontation between 6ussia an' t!e 2est7 an' t!e"e o"e to t!e nee' o" a pe"manent 3me"i$an "ole in /u"ope7 !isto"y suggests t!at $on li$ts in /u"ope in8ol8ing 6ussia a"e possible e8en wit!out So8iet $ommunism. ? t!e Unite' States wit!'"ew "om /u"ope L i it a'opte' w!at some $all a st"ategy o Ho s!o"e balan$ingI L t!is $oul' in time 1*
in$"ease t!e li=eli!oo' o $on li$t in8ol8ing 6ussia an' its nea" neig!bo"s7 w!i$! $oul' in tu"n '"aw t!e Unite' States ba$= in un'e" un a8o"able $i"$umstan$es. ?t is also optimisti$ to imagine t!at a "et"en$!ment o t!e 3me"i$an position in t!e 1i''le /ast an' t!e assumption o a mo"e passi8e7 Ho s!o"eI "ole woul' lea' to g"eate" stability t!e"e. ,!e 8ital inte"est t!e Unite' States !as in a$$ess to oil an' t!e "ole it plays in =eeping a$$ess open to ot!e" nations in /u"ope an' 3sia ma=e it unli=ely t!at 3me"i$an lea'e"s $oul' o" woul' stan' ba$= an' !ope o" t!e best w!ile t!e powe"s in t!e "egion battle it out. %o" woul' a mo"e He8en(!an'e'I poli$y towa"'
?s"ael7 w!i$! some see as t!e magi$ =ey to unlo$=ing pea$e7 stability7 an' $omity in t!e 1i''le /ast7 ob8iate t!e nee' to $ome to ?s"ael 9s ai' i its se$u"ity be$ame t!"eatene'. ,!at $ommitment7 pai"e' wit! t!e 3me"i$an
,!e subt"a$tion o 3me"i$an powe" "om any "egion woul' not en' $on li$t but woul' simply $!ange t!e eBuation. ?n t!e 1i''le /ast7 $ompetition o" in luen$e among powe"s bot! insi'e an' outsi'e t!e "egion !as "age' o" at least two $entu"ies. ,!e "ise o ?slami$ un'amentalism 'oesn9t $!ange t!is. ?t only a''s a new an' mo"e t!"eatening 'imension to t!e $ompetition 7 w!i$! neit!e" a su''en en' to t!e $on li$t between ?s"ael an' t!e .alestinians no" an imme'iate 3me"i$an wit!'"awal "om ?"aB woul' $!ange. ,!e alte"nati8e to 3me"i$an p"e'ominan$e in t!e "egion is not balan$e an' pea$e. ?t is u"t!e" $ompetition. ,!e "egion an' t!e states wit!in it "emain "elati8ely wea=. 3 'iminution o 3me"i$an in luen$e woul' not be ollowe' by a 'iminution o ot!e" e0te"nal in luen$es. One $oul' e0pe$t 'eepe" in8ol8ement by bot! 5!ina an' 6ussia7 i only to se$u"e t!ei" inte"ests. 18 3n' one $oul' also e0pe$t t!e mo"e powe" ul states o t!e "egion7 pa"ti$ula"ly ?"an7 to e0pan' an' ill t!e 8a$uum. ?t is 'oubt ul t!at any 3me"i$an a'minist"ation woul' 8olunta"ily ta=e a$tions t!at $oul' s!i t t!e balan$e o powe" in t!e 1i''le /ast u"t!e" towa"' 6ussia7 5!ina7 o" ?"an. ,!e wo"l' !asn9t $!ange' t!at mu$!. 3n 3me"i$an wit!'"awal "om ?"aB will not "etu"n t!ings to Hno"malI o" to a new =in' o stability in t!e "egion. ?t will p"o'u$e a new instability7 one li=ely to '"aw t!e Unite' States ba$= in again. ,!e alte"nati8e to 3me"i$an "egional p"e'ominan$e in t!e 1i''le /ast an' elsew!e"e is not a new "egional stability. ?n an e"a o bu"geoning nationalism7 t!e utu"e is li=ely to be one o intensi ie' $ompetition among nations an' nationalist mo8ements. Di i$ult as it may be to e0ten' 3me"i$an p"e'ominan$e into t!e utu"e7 no one s!oul' imagine t!at a "e'u$tion o 3me"i$an powe" o" a "et"a$tion o 3me"i$an in luen$e an' global in8ol8ement will p"o8i'e an easie" pat!.
$ommitment to p"ote$t st"ategi$ oil supplies o" most o t!e wo"l'7 p"a$ti$ally ensu"es a !ea8y 3me"i$an milita"y p"esen$e in t!e "egion7 bot! on t!e seas an' on t!e g"oun'.
16
Hege ,ood- .h'i'i/ad

34%inc%ion
.ha'i'/ad7 6an' 5o"po"ation $- :Oalmay )!alil+a'7 Sp"ing 199*. 63%D 5o"po"ation. H@osing t!e 1omentJI ,!e 2as!ington \ua"te"ly 18.27 @e0is.<
Un'e" t!e t!i"' option7 t!e Unite' States woul' see= to "etain global lea'e"s!ip an' to p"e$lu'e t!e "ise o a global "i8al o" a "etu"n to multipola"ity o" t!e in'e inite utu"e. On balan$e7 t!is is t!e best long(te"m gui'ing p"in$iple
a wo"l' in w!i$! t!e Unite' States e0e"$ises lea'e"s!ip woul' !a8e t"emen'ous a'8antages. -i"st7 t!e global en8i"onment woul' !a8e a bette" $!an$e o 'ealing $oope"ati8ely wit! t!e wo"l'Cs maAo" p"oblems7 su$! as nu$lea" p"oli e"ation7 t!"eats o "egional !egemony by "enega'e states7 an' low(le8el $on li$ts. -inally7 U.S. lea'e"s!ip woul' !elp p"e$lu'e t!e "ise o anot!e" !ostile global "i8al7 enabling t!e Unite' States an' t!e wo"l' to a8oi' anot!e" global $ol' o" !ot wa" an' all t!e atten'ant 'ange"s7 in$lu'ing a global nu$lea" e0$!ange . U.S. lea'e"s!ip woul' t!e"e o"e be mo"e $on'u$i8e to global stability t!an a bipola" o" a
an' 8ision. Su$! a 8ision is 'esi"able not as an en' in itsel 7 but be$ause woul' be mo"e open an' mo"e "e$epti8e to 3me"i$an 8alues (( 'emo$"a$y7 "ee ma"=ets7 an' t!e "ule o law. Se$on'7 su$! a wo"l' multipola" balan$e o powe" system.
17
Hege ,ood- 0hayer

Heg promo%es democracy and %ha% so';es grea% power wars
0hayer ! :#"a'ley 3.7 ."o o De ense an' St"ategi$ Stu'ies K 1issou"i State Uni8e"sity7 H?n De ense o ."ima$y.7I %ational ?nte"estD %o8;De$2006 ?ssue 867 p32(37< ,!"oug!out !isto"y7 pea$e an' stability !a8e been g"eat bene its o an e"a w!e"e t!e"e was a 'ominant powe" ((6ome7 #"itain o" t!e Unite' States to'ay. S$!ola"s an' statesmen !a8e long "e$ogni+e' t!e i"eni$ e e$t o powe" on t!e ana"$!i$ wo"l' o inte"national politi$s . /8e"yt!ing we t!in= o w!en we $onsi'e" t!e $u""ent inte"national o"'e"(( "ee t"a'e7 a "obust moneta"y "egime7 in$"easing "espe$t o" !uman "ig!ts7 g"owing 'emo$"ati+ation((is 'i"e$tly lin=e' to U.S. powe". 6et"en$!ment p"oponents seem to t!in= t!at t!e $u""ent system $an be maintaine' wit!out t!e $u""ent amount o U.S. powe" be!in' it. ?n t!at t!ey a"e 'ea' w"ong an' nee' to be "emin'e' o one o !isto"yCs most signi i$ant lessons4 3ppalling t!ings !appen w!en inte"national o"'e"s $ollapse. ,!e Da"= 3ges ollowe' 6omeCs $ollapse. Hitle" su$$ee'e' t!e o"'e" establis!e' at Fe"sailles. 2it!out U.S. powe"7 t!e libe"al o"'e" $"eate' by t!e Unite' States will en' Aust as assu"e'ly. 3s $ount"y an' weste"n g"eat 6al Donne" sang4 TPou 'onCt =now w!at youC8e got :until you lose it<.T 5onseBuently7 it is impo"tant to note w!at t!ose goo' t!ings a"e. ?n a''ition to ensu"ing t!e se$u"ity o t!e Unite' States an' its allies7 3me"i$an p"ima$y wit!in t!e inte"national system $auses many positi8e out$omes o" 2as!ington an' t!e wo"l'. ,!e i"st !as been a mo"e pea$e ul wo"l'. Du"ing t!e 5ol' 2a"7 U.S. lea'e"s!ip "e'u$e' "i$tion among many states t!at we"e !isto"i$al antagonists7 most notably -"an$e an' 2est &e"many. ,o'ay7 3me"i$an p"ima$y !elps =eep a numbe" o $ompli$ate' "elations!ips aligne'((between &"ee$e an' ,u"=ey7 ?s"ael an' /gypt7 Sout! )o"ea an' >apan7 ?n'ia an' .a=istan7 ?n'onesia an' 3ust"alia . ,!is is not to say it ul ills 2oo'"ow 2ilsonCs 8ision o en'ing all wa". 2a"s still o$$u" w!e"e 2as!ingtonCs inte"ests a"e not se"iously t!"eatene'7 su$! as in Da" u"7 but a .a0 3me"i$ana 'oes "e'u$e wa"Cs li=eli!oo' 7 pa"ti$ula"ly wa"Cs wo"st o"m4 g"eat powe" wa"s. Se$on'7 3me"i$an powe" gi8es t!e Unite' States t!e ability to sp"ea' 'emo$"a$y an' ot!e" elements o its i'eology o libe"alism4 Doing so is a
sou"$e o mu$! goo' o" t!e $ount"ies $on$e"ne' as well as t!e Unite' States be$ause7 as >o!n Owen note' on t!ese pages in t!e Sp"ing 2006 issue7 libe"al 'emo$"a$ies a"e mo"e li=ely to align wit! t!e Unite' States an' be
on$e states a"e go8e"ne' 'emo$"ati$ally7 t!e li=eli!oo' o any type o $on li$t is signi i$antly "e'u$e'. ,!is is not be$ause 'emo$"a$ies 'o not !a8e $las!ing inte"ests. ?n'ee' t!ey 'o. 6at!e"7 it is be$ause t!ey a"e mo"e open7 mo"e t"anspa"ent an' mo"e li=ely to want to "esol8e t!ings ami$ably in $on$u""en$e wit! U.S. lea'e"s!ip. 3n' so7 in gene"al7 'emo$"ati$ states a"e goo' o" t!ei" $iti+ens as well as o"
sympat!eti$ to t!e 3me"i$an wo"l'8iew.: n3< So7 sp"ea'ing 'emo$"a$y !elps maintain U.S. p"ima$y. ?n a''ition7 a'8an$ing t!e inte"ests o t!e Unite' States.
18
Hege ,ood- 1erguson

Co''apse o) US hegemony causes a g'o&a' power ;acuum resu'%ing in nuc'ear war
1erguson 0
p"o esso" o !isto"y at %ew Po"= Uni8e"sityCs Ste"n S$!ool o #usiness an' senio" ellow at t!e Hoo8e" ?nstitution at Stan o"' Uni8e"sity :%iall7 H3 2o"l' wit!out .owe"I7 -o"eign .oli$y <
5e"tainly7 one $an imagine t!e wo"l'Cs establis!e' powe"sLt!e Unite' States7 /u"ope7 an' 5!inaL"et"eating into t!ei" own "egional sp!e"es o in luen$e . #ut w!at o
5oul' an apola" wo"l' to'ay p"o'u$e an e"a "eminis$ent o t!e age o 3l "e'J ?t $oul'7 t!oug! wit! some impo"tant an' t"oubling 'i e"en$es. "eality7 !owe8e"7 was not a global 5!"isten'om7 no" an all(emb"a$ing /mpi"e o Hea8en.
t!e g"owing p"etensions to autonomy o t!e sup"anational bo'ies $"eate' un'e" U.S. lea'e"s!ip a te" t!e Se$on' 2o"l' 2a"J ,!e Unite' %ations7 t!e ?nte"national 1oneta"y -un'7 t!e 2o"l' #an=7 an' t!e 2o"l' ,"a'e O"gani+ation : o"me"ly t!e &ene"al 3g"eement on ,a"i s an' ,"a'e< ea$! $onsi'e"s itsel in some way "ep"esentati8e o t!e Hinte"national $ommunity.I Su"ely t!ei" aspi"ations to global go8e"nan$e a"e un'amentally 'i e"ent "om t!e spi"it o t!e Da"= 3gesJ Pet uni8e"sal $laims we"e also an integ"al pa"t o t!e "!eto"i$ o t!at e"a. 3ll t!e empi"es $laime' to "ule t!e wo"l'D some7 unawa"e o t!e e0isten$e o ot!e" $i8ili+ations7 maybe e8en belie8e' t!at t!ey 'i'. ,!e
,!e "eality was politi$al "agmentation. 3n' t!at is also t"ue to'ay. ,!e 'e ining $!a"a$te"isti$ o ou" age is not a s!i t o powe" upwa"' to sup"anational institutions7 but 'ownwa"'. 2it! t!e en' o statesC monopoly on t!e means o 8iolen$e an' t!e $ollapse o t!ei" $ont"ol o8e" $!annels o $ommuni$ation7 !umanity !as ente"e' an e"a $!a"a$te"i+e' as mu$! by 'isinteg"ation as integ"ation. ? "ee lows o in o"mation an' o means o p"o'u$tion empowe" multinational $o"po"ations an' nongo8e"nmental o"gani+ations :as well as e8angelisti$ "eligious $ults o all 'enominations<7 t!e "ee low o 'est"u$ti8e te$!nology empowe"s bot! $"iminal o"gani+ations an' te""o"ist $ells . ,!ese g"oups $an ope"ate7 it seems7 w!e"e8e" t!ey $!oose7 "om
Hambu"g to &a+a. #y $ont"ast7 t!e w"it o t!e inte"national $ommunity is not global at all. ?t is7 in a$t7 in$"easingly $on ine' to a ew .age * st"ategi$ $ities su$! as )abul an' ."istina. ?n s!o"t7 it is t!e nonstate a$to"s w!o t"uly
w!at is le tJ 2aning empi"es. 6eligious "e8i8als. ?n$ipient ana"$!y. 3 $oming "et"eat into o"ti ie' $ities. ,!ese a"e t!e Da"= 3ge e0pe"ien$es t!at a wo"l' wit!out a !ype"powe" mig!t Bui$=ly in' itsel "eli8ing. ,!e t"ouble is7 o $ou"se7 t!at t!is Da"= 3ge woul' be an altoget!e" mo"e 'ange"ous one t!an t!e Da"= 3ge o t!e nint! $entu"y. -o" t!e wo"l' is mu$! mo"e populousL"oug!ly 20 times mo"eLso "i$tion between t!e wo"l'Cs 'ispa"ate Ht"ibesI is boun' to be mo"e "eBuent. ,e$!nology !as t"ans o"me' p"o'u$tionD now !uman so$ieties 'epen' not me"ely on "es!wate" an' t!e !a"8est but also on supplies o ossil uels t!at a"e =nown to be inite. ,e$!nology !as upg"a'e' 'est"u$tion7 too7 so it is now possible not Aust to sa$= a $ity but to oblite"ate it. -o" mo"e t!an two 'e$a'es7 globali+ationLt!e integ"ation o wo"l' ma"=ets o" $ommo'ities7 labo"7 an' $apitalL!as "aise' li8ing stan'a"'s t!"oug!out t!e wo"l'7 e0$ept w!e"e $ount"ies !a8e s!ut t!emsel8es o "om t!e p"o$ess t!"oug! ty"anny o" $i8il wa". ,!e "e8e"sal o globali+ationLw!i$! a new Da"= 3ge woul' p"o'u$eLwoul' $e"tainly lea' to e$onomi$ stagnation an' e8en 'ep"ession. 3s t!e Unite' States soug!t to p"ote$t itsel a te" a se$on' Septembe" 11 'e8astates7 say7 Houston o" 5!i$ago7 it woul'
wiel' global powe"Lin$lu'ing bot! t!e mon=s an' t!e Fi=ings o ou" time. So ine8itably be$ome a less open so$iety7 less !ospitable o" o"eigne"s see=ing to wo"=7 8isit7 o" 'o business. 1eanw!ile7 as /u"opeCs 1uslim en$la8es g"ew7 ?slamist e0t"emistsC in ilt"ation o t!e /U woul' be$ome i""e8e"sible7 in$"easing t"ans(3tlanti$ tensions o8e" t!e 1i''le /ast to t!e b"ea=ing point. 3n e$onomi$ melt'own in 5!ina woul' plunge t!e 5ommunist system into $"isis7 unleas!ing t!e $ent"i ugal o"$es t!at un'e"mine' p"e8ious 5!inese
,!e wo"st e e$ts o t!e new Da"= 3ge woul' be elt on t!e e'ges o t!e waning g"eat powe"s. ,!e wealt!iest po"ts o t!e global e$onomyL "om %ew Po"= to 6otte"'am to S!ang!aiL woul' be$ome t!e ta"gets o plun'e"e"s an' pi"ates. 2it! ease7 te""o"ists $oul' 'is"upt t!e "ee'om o t!e seas7 ta"geting oil tan=e"s7 ai"$"a t $a""ie"s7 an' $"uise line"s7 w!ile 2este"n nations "anti$ally $on$ent"ate' on ma=ing t!ei" ai"po"ts se$u"e. 1eanw!ile7 limite' nu$lea" wa"s $oul' 'e8astate nume"ous "egions7 beginning in t!e )o"ean peninsula an' )as!mi"7 pe"!aps en'ing $atast"op!i$ally in t!e 1i''le /ast. ?n @atin 3me"i$a7 w"et$!e'ly poo" $iti+ens woul' see= sola$e in /8angeli$al 5!"istianity impo"te' by U.S. "eligious o"'e"s . ?n 3 "i$a7 t!e g"eat plagues o 3?DS an' mala"ia woul' $ontinue t!ei" 'ea'ly wo"=. ,!e ew "emaining sol8ent ai"lines woul' simply suspen' se"8i$es to many $ities in t!ese $ontinentsD w!o woul' wis! to lea8e t!ei" p"i8ately gua"'e' sa e !a8ens to go t!e"eJ -o" all t!ese "easons7 t!e p"ospe$t o an apola" wo"l' s!oul' "ig!ten us to'ay a g"eat 'eal mo"e t!an it "ig!tene' t!e !ei"s o 5!a"lemagne. ? t!e Unite' States "et"eats "om global !egemony L
empi"es. 2este"n in8esto"s woul' lose out an' $on$lu'e t!at lowe" "etu"ns at !ome a"e p"e e"able to t!e "is=s o 'e ault ab"oa'. its "agile sel (image 'ente' by mino" setba$=s on t!e impe"ial "ontie"Lits $"iti$s at !ome an' ab"oa' must not p"eten' t!at t!ey a"e us!e"ing in a new e"a o multipola" !a"mony7 o" e8en a "etu"n to t!e goo' ol' balan$e o
. ,!e alte"nati8e to unipola"ity woul' not be multipola"ity at all. ?t woul' be apola"ityLa global 8a$uum o powe". 3n' a" mo"e 'ange"ous o"$es t!an "i8al g"eat powe"s woul' bene it "om su$! a not(so(new wo"l' 'iso"'e"
powe". #e $a"e ul w!at you wis! o"
19
Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)

Hege <ey %o so';e 2ro'i)
5ande'&aum =M1i$!ael7 ."o esso" an' Di"e$to" o t!e 3me"i$an -o"eign .oli$y ."og"am at >o!ns Hop=ins The Case for Goliath* #o) A'erica Acts As the $orld!s Go&ern'ent in the T)enty+,irst Century 7 p. 39(41N 3me"i$an o"$es "emaine' in /u"ope an' /ast 3sia be$ause t!e $ount"ies lo$ate' in t!ese two "egions wante' t!em t!e"e7 e8en i t!ey 'i' not always say so $lea"ly o" e8en e0pli$itly. ,!ey wante' t!em t!e"e be$ause t!e
,!e 3me"i$an milita"y p"esen$e was in bot! $ases a $on i'en$e(buil'ing measu"e7 an' i t!at p"esen$e we"e wit!('"awn7 t!e $ount"ies in bot! "egions woul' eel less $on i'ent t!at no t!"eat to t!ei" se$u"ity woul' appea". ,!ey woul'7 in all li=eli!oo'7 ta=e steps to $ompensate o" t!e absen$e o t!ese o"$es. ,!ose steps woul' su"ely not in$lu'e wa"7 at least not in t!e i"st instan$e. ?nstea'7 sin$e t!e 3me"i$an o"$es se"8e as a !e'ge against un$e"tainty7 some o t!e $ount"ies o /ast 3sia an' /u"ope mig!t well see= to "epla$e t!em wit! anot!e" sou"$e o !e'ging. 3 lea'ing $an'i'ate o" t!at "ole woul' be nu$lea" weapons o t!ei" own.9 ,!e possession o nu$lea" weapons eBuips t!ei" owne" wit! a $e"tain le8e"age7 a
3me"i$an p"esen$e o e"e' t!e assu"an$e t!at t!ese "egions woul' "emain "ee o wa" an'7 in t!e $ase o /u"ope7 "ee o t!e $ostly p"epa"ations o" wa" t!at !a' ma"=e' t!e twentiet! $entu"y. geopoliti$al weig!t t!at7 unless some!ow $ounte"balan$e'7 $an $on e" a politi$al a'8antage in 'ealing wit! $ount"ies la$=ing t!em. @i=e t!e "elations!ip between employe" an' employee7 t!e one between a nu$lea"(weapon state an' a non(nu$lea"(weapon state !as ineBuality built into it7 no matte" !ow "ien'ly t!at "elations!ip may be. Du"ing t!e 5ol' 2a"7 t!e 3me"i$an milita"y p"esen$e7 an' t!e gua"antee o p"ote$tion by t!e mig!ty nu$lea" a"senal o t!e Unite' States t!at $ame wit! it7 neut"ali+e' t!e nu$lea" weapons t!at t!e So8iet Union an' t!e .eopleCs 6epubli$ o 5!ina a$$umulate'. 6ussia an' 5!ina "etain nu$lea" sto$=(piles in t!e wa=e o t!e 5ol' 2a"7 an' wit! t!e en' o t!e 3me"i$an milita"y p"esen$e in t!ei" "egions7 se8e"al o t!ei" non(nu$lea" neig!bo"sL&e"many7 .olan'7 >apan7 Sout! )o"ea7 an' ,aiwan7 o" e0ampleLmig!t eel t!e nee' to o (set t!ose sto$=piles wit! nu$lea" o"$es o t!ei" own. .e"!aps t!e p"o$ess o "epla$ing 3me"i$an nu$lea" a"maments wit! t!ose o ot!e" $ount"ies7 i t!is s!oul' ta=e pla$e7 woul' o$$u" smoot!ly7 wit! /u"ope an' /ast 3sia "emaining pea$e ul t!"oug!out t!e t"ansition. #ut t!is is not w!at most o t!e wo"l' belie8es. ,o t!e $ont"a"y7 t!e sp"ea' o nu$lea" weapons to $ount"ies t!at 'o not al"ea'y !a8e t!em is wi'ely $onsi'e"e' to be t!e single g"eatest t!"eat to inte"national t"anBuillity in t!e twenty( i"st $entu"y. en' $onstitute7 li=e "eassu"an$e7 a se"8i$e to t!e ot!e" membe"s o t!e inte"national system.
,!e Unite' States !as ma'e t!e p"e8ention o
nu$lea"
p"oli e"ation one o its most impo"tant
o"eign
poli$ies7 an' its e
o"ts to t!is
+uc'ear 2ro'i)era%ion Causes 34%inc%ion

U%go)) 02
Fi$to" Utgo 7 Deputy Di"e$to" o t!e St"ategy7 -o"$es7 an' 6esou"$es Di8ision o t!e ?nstitute o" De ense 3nalysis7 SU6F?F3@7 -all720027 p. 87(90
p"oli e"ation is li=ely to lea' to an o$$asional s!oot(out wit! nu$lea" weapons7 an' t!at su$! s!oot(outs will !a8e a substantial p"obability o es$alating to t!e ma0imum 'est"u$tion possible wit! t!e weapons at !an'. Unless nu$lea" p"oli e"ation is stoppe'7 we a"e !ea'e' towa"' a wo"l' t!at will mi""o" t!e 3me"i$an 2il' 2est o t!e late 1800s. 2it! most7 i not all7 nations wea"ing nu$lea" Csi0(s!oote"sC on t!ei" !ips7 t!e wo"l' may e8en be a mo"e polite pla$e t!an it is to'ay7 but e8e"y on$e in a w!ile we will all gat!e" on a !ill to bu"y t!e bo'ies o 'ea' $ities o" e8en w!ole nations .
?n sum7 wi'esp"ea'
20
----34%. 2ro'i)
Heg so';es pro'i)era%ion in %he hands o) a''ies> rogue s%a%es> and %erroris% groups
5ande'&aum =M1i$!ael7 ."o esso" an' Di"e$to" o t!e 3me"i$an -o"eign .oli$y ."og"am at >o!ns Hop=ins X The Case for Goliath* #o) A'erica Acts As the $orld!s Go&ern'ent in the T)enty+,irst Century 7 p. 189(191N ,!e g"eatest t!"eat to t!ei" se$u"ity t!at t!e membe"s o t!e inte"national system 'i' a$e in t!e new $entu"y7 one t!at t!e Unite' States !a' 'e8ote' $onsi'e"able "esou"$es an' politi$al $apital to $ontaining an' t!at a se"ious
in t!e absen$e o an 3me"i$an nu$lea" gua"antee7 maAo" $ount"ies in /u"ope an' 3sia will eel t!e nee' to a$Bui"e t!ei" own nu$lea" a"maments. ? t!e Unite' States wit!'"ew "om /u"ope an' /ast 3sia7 &e"many mig!t $ome to $onsi'e" it imp"u'ent to 'eal wit! a nu$lea"(a"me' 6ussia7 an' >apan wit! a nu$lea"(a"me' 5!ina7 wit!out nu$lea" a"ms o t!ei" own. ,!ey woul' see= t!ese weapons in o"'e" to a8oi' an imbalan$e in powe" t!at mig!t wo"= to t!ei" 'isa'8antage. ,!e a$Buisition o nu$lea" weapons by su$! a luent7 'emo$"ati$7 pea$e ul $ount"ies woul' not7 by itsel 7 t"igge" a wa". ?t
"e'u$tion in t!e 3me"i$an global "ule woul' $e"tainly agg"a8ate7 was t!e sp"ea' o nu$lea" weapons. %u$lea" p"oli e"ation poses t!"ee "elate' 'ange"s. ,!e i"st is t!at7 $oul'7 !owe8e"7 t"igge" a"ms "a$es simila" to t!e one between t!e Unite' States an' t!e So8iet Union 'u"ing t!e 5ol' 2a". ?t woul' su"ely ma=e /u"ope an' /ast 3sia less $om o"table pla$es7 an' "elations among t!e $ount"ies o
Unite' States e0e"te' itsel to t!wa"t to t!e e0tent o t!"eatening a wa" in %o"t! )o"ea an' a$tually waging one in ?"aB an' t!at t!e "e$ession o 3me"i$an powe" woul' in$"ease4 t!e possession o nu$lea" a"maments by T"ogueT states7 $ount"ies go8e"ne' by "egimes at o''s wit! t!ei" neig!bo"s an' !ostile to p"e8ailing inte"national no"ms. 3 nu$lea"(a"me' ?"aB7 an unli=ely 'e8elopment a te" t!e o8e"(t!"ow o Sa''am HusseinCs "egime7 o" a nu$lea"(a"me' ?"an7 a a" mo"e plausible p"ospe$t7
t!ese "egions mo"e suspi$ious7 t!an was t!e $ase at t!e outset o t!e twenty( i"st $entu"y. ,!e sp"ea' o nu$lea" weapons poses a se$on' 'ange"7 w!i$! t!e woul' ma=e t!e inte"national "elations o t!e .e"sian &ul a" mo"e 'ange"ous. ,!at in tu"n woul' t!"eaten 8i"tually e8e"y $ount"y in t!e wo"l' be$ause so mu$! o t!e oil on w!i$! t!ey all 'epen' $omes "om t!at "egion.C 3
/spe$ially i t!e Unite' States wit!'"ew "om t!e "egion7 Sout! )o"ea an' >apan7 an' pe"!aps ultimately ,ai(wan7 mig!t well 'e$i'e to eBuip t!emsel8es wit! nu$lea" weapons o t!ei" own. 3 %o"t! )o"ean nu$lea" a"senal woul' pose yet a t!i"' t!"eat4 nu$lea" weapons in t!e !an's o a te""o"ist g"oup su$! as al \ae'a . @a$=ing t!e in "ast"u$tu"e o a so8e"eign state7 a te""o"ist o"gani+ation p"obably $oul' not $onst"u$t a nu$lea" weapon itsel . #ut it $oul' pu"$!ase eit!e" a ull( le'ge' nu$lea" e0plosi8e o" nu$lea" mate"ial t!at $oul' o"m t!e basis o" a 'e8i$e t!at7 w!ile not a$tually e0plo'ing7 $oul' spew poisonous "a'iation o8e" populate' a"eas7 =illing o" in e$ting many t!ousan's o people .C %u$lea" mate"ials a"e potentially a8ailable o" pu"$!ase not only in %o"t! )o"ea but elsew!e"e as well.
nu$lea"(a"me' %o"t! )o"ea woul' simila"ly $!ange t!e inte"national "elations o /ast 3sia o" t!e wo"se.
21
Hege ,ood- Democracy

Heg promo%es democracy
0hayer ! :#"a'ley 3.7 ."o o De ense an' St"ategi$ Stu'ies K 1issou"i State Uni8e"sity7 H?n De ense o ."ima$y.7I %ational ?nte"estD %o8;De$2006 ?ssue 867 p32(37< ,!"oug!out !isto"y7 pea$e an' stability !a8e been g"eat bene its o an e"a w!e"e t!e"e was a 'ominant powe" ((6ome7 #"itain o" t!e Unite' States to'ay. S$!ola"s an' statesmen !a8e long "e$ogni+e' t!e i"eni$ e e$t o powe" on t!e ana"$!i$ wo"l' o inte"national politi$s . /8e"yt!ing we t!in= o w!en we $onsi'e" t!e $u""ent inte"national o"'e"(( "ee t"a'e7 a "obust moneta"y "egime7 in$"easing "espe$t o" !uman "ig!ts7 g"owing 'emo$"ati+ation((is 'i"e$tly lin=e' to U.S. powe". 6et"en$!ment p"oponents seem to t!in= t!at t!e $u""ent system $an be maintaine' wit!out t!e $u""ent amount o U.S. powe" be!in' it. ?n t!at t!ey a"e 'ea' w"ong an' nee' to be "emin'e' o one o !isto"yCs most signi i$ant lessons4 3ppalling t!ings !appen w!en inte"national o"'e"s $ollapse. ,!e Da"= 3ges ollowe' 6omeCs $ollapse. Hitle" su$$ee'e' t!e o"'e" establis!e' at Fe"sailles. 2it!out U.S. powe"7 t!e libe"al o"'e" $"eate' by t!e Unite' States will en' Aust as assu"e'ly. 3s $ount"y an' weste"n g"eat 6al Donne" sang4 TPou 'onCt =now w!at youC8e got :until you lose it<.T 5onseBuently7 it is impo"tant to note w!at t!ose goo' t!ings a"e. ?n a''ition to ensu"ing t!e se$u"ity o t!e Unite' States an' its allies7 3me"i$an p"ima$y wit!in t!e inte"national system $auses many positi8e out$omes o" 2as!ington an' t!e wo"l'. ,!e i"st !as been a mo"e pea$e ul wo"l'. Du"ing t!e 5ol' 2a"7 U.S. lea'e"s!ip "e'u$e' "i$tion among many states t!at we"e !isto"i$al antagonists7 most notably -"an$e an' 2est &e"many. ,o'ay7 3me"i$an p"ima$y !elps =eep a numbe" o $ompli$ate' "elations!ips aligne'((between &"ee$e an' ,u"=ey7 ?s"ael an' /gypt7 Sout! )o"ea an' >apan7 ?n'ia an' .a=istan7 ?n'onesia an' 3ust"alia . ,!is is not to say it ul ills 2oo'"ow 2ilsonCs 8ision o en'ing all wa". 2a"s still o$$u" w!e"e 2as!ingtonCs inte"ests a"e not se"iously t!"eatene'7 su$! as in Da" u"7 but a .a0 3me"i$ana 'oes "e'u$e wa"Cs li=eli!oo' 7 pa"ti$ula"ly wa"Cs wo"st o"m4 g"eat powe" wa"s. Se$on'7 3me"i$an powe" gi8es t!e Unite' States t!e ability to sp"ea' 'emo$"a$y an' ot!e" elements o its i'eology o libe"alism4 Doing so is a
sou"$e o mu$! goo' o" t!e $ount"ies $on$e"ne' as well as t!e Unite' States be$ause7 as >o!n Owen note' on t!ese pages in t!e Sp"ing 2006 issue7 libe"al 'emo$"a$ies a"e mo"e li=ely to align wit! t!e Unite' States an' be
on$e states a"e go8e"ne' 'emo$"ati$ally7 t!e li=eli!oo' o any type o $on li$t is signi i$antly "e'u$e'. ,!is is not be$ause 'emo$"a$ies 'o not !a8e $las!ing inte"ests. ?n'ee' t!ey 'o. 6at!e"7 it is be$ause t!ey a"e mo"e open7 mo"e t"anspa"ent an' mo"e li=ely to want to "esol8e t!ings ami$ably in $on$u""en$e wit! U.S. lea'e"s!ip. 3n' so7 in gene"al7 'emo$"ati$ states a"e goo' o" t!ei" $iti+ens as well as o"
sympat!eti$ to t!e 3me"i$an wo"l'8iew.: n3< So7 sp"ea'ing 'emo$"a$y !elps maintain U.S. p"ima$y. ?n a''ition7 a'8an$ing t!e inte"ests o t!e Unite' States.
Democracy so';es e4%inc%ion

Diamond $@a""y Diamon'7 Hoo8e" ?nstitution7 Stan o"' Uni8e"sity7 De$embe"7 .6O1O,?%& D/1O5635P ?% ,H/ 1990S7 199*7 p. !ttp4;;www.$a"negie.o"g;;sub;pubs;'ea'ly;'iamW"pt.!tml ;;
%u$lea"7 $!emi$al an' biologi$al weapons $ontinue to p"oli e"ate. ,!e 8e"y sou"$e o li e on /a"t!7 t!e global e$osystem7 appea"s in$"easingly en'ange"e'. 1ost o t!ese new an' un$on8entional t!"eats to se$u"ity a"e asso$iate' wit! o" agg"a8ate' by t!e wea=ness o" absen$e o 'emo$"a$y7 wit! its p"o8isions o" legality7 a$$ountability7 popula" so8e"eignty an' openness. ,!e e0pe"ien$e o t!is $entu"y o e"s impo"tant lessons. 5ount"ies t!at go8e"n t!emsel8es in a t"uly 'emo$"ati$ as!ion 'o not go to wa" wit! one anot!e". ,!ey 'o not agg"ess against t!ei" neig!bo"s to agg"an'i+e t!emsel8es o" glo"i y t!ei" lea'e"s. Demo$"ati$ go8e"nments 'o not et!ni$ally T$leanseT t!ei" own populations7 an' t!ey a"e mu$! less li=ely to a$e et!ni$ insu"gen$y. Demo$"a$ies 'o not sponso" te""o"ism against one anot!e". ,!ey 'o not buil' weapons o mass 'est"u$tion to use on o" to t!"eaten one anot!e". Demo$"ati$ $ount"ies o"m mo"e "eliable7 open7 an' en'u"ing t"a'ing pa"tne"s!ips. ?n t!e long "un t!ey o e" bette" an' mo"e stable $limates o" in8estment. ,!ey a"e mo"e en8i"onmentally "esponsible be$ause t!ey must answe" to t!ei" own $iti+ens7 w!o o"gani+e to p"otest t!e 'est"u$tion o t!ei" en8i"onments .
22
----34%. Democracy
Heg promo%es democracy
?ie&er =M6obe"t >.7 ."o esso" o &o8e"nment an' ?nte"national 3 ai"s at &eo"getown Uni8e"sity The A'erican -ra* Po)er and Strate"y for the ./st Century7 p. 49(*0N ,!is aspi"ation embo'ie' 'eep(seate' t!emes wit!in 3me"i$an !isto"y an' e8o=e' long(stan'ing belie s about o"eign poli$y. ?n pa"ti$ula"7 t!e i'ea t!at t!e e0e"$ise o
3me"i$an powe" goes !an' in !an' wit! is 3me"i$aCs $ause

"ee t"a'e
t!e p"omotion o 'emo$"ati$ p"in$iples $an be
oun' in t!e poli$y p"onoun$ements o U.S. ."esi'ents "om 2oo'"ow 2ilson to >o!n -. )enne'y7 6onal' 6eagan7 an' #ill 5linton :w!ose 1993
inaugu"al a''"ess p"o$laime'7 TOu" !opes7 ou" !ea"ts7 ou" !an's7 a"e wit! t!ose on e8e"y $ontinent w!o a"e . ,!ei" $ause T<. ,!is $ombination o 8alues "e le$ts bot! a belie in uni8e"sal i'eals :T,!e Unite' States7T t!e %SS 'e$la"es7 Tmust 'e en' libe"ty an' Austi$e be$ause t!ese p"in$iples a"e "ig!t an' t"ue o" all people e8e"yw!e"eT< an' a Au'gment t!at p"omoting t!ese p"in$iples ab"oa' not only bene its $iti+ens o ot!e" $ount"ies7 but also in$"eases U.S. national se$u"ity by ma=ing o"eign $on li$ts less li=ely be$ause 'emo$"a$ies a"e unli=ely to atta$= one anot!e".
buil'ing 'emo$"a$y an' "ee'om
,!e
%ational Se$u"ity St"ategy $ommitte' t!e Unite' States to Ta$ti8ely wo"= to b"ing t!e !ope o 'emo$"a$y7 'e8elopment7 "ee ma"=ets7 an' o t!e wo"l'.T ,!is obAe$ti8e was '"i8en by t!e belie t!at t!e un'amental $ause o "a'i$al ?slami$ te""o"ism lies in t!e absen$e o 'emo$"a$y7 t!e p"e8alen$e o aut!o"ita"ianism7 an' t!e la$= o
p"o8i'e' an elabo"ation t!at was bot! mo"al an' st"ategi$ in its $ommitment to 'emo$"ati+ation7 w!ile $"iti$i+ing !al a $entu"y o poli$ies t!at !a' aile' to ma=e t!is a p"io"ity4 T
to e8e"y $o"ne"
"ee'om an' oppo"tunity in t!e 3"ab wo"l'. ?n t!e past7 t!is i'ea mig!t !a8e been 'ismisse' as politi$al "!eto"i$. #ut a te" Septembe" 117 e8en t!e Unite' %ations in its 2002 3"ab Human De8elopment 6epo"t an' in subseBuent "epo"ts in 2003 an' 200*7 'e ine' t!e p"oblem simila"ly an' $alle' o" t!e e0tension o "ep"esentati8e institutions an' basi$ !uman "ee'oms to t!e 1uslim 1i''le /ast. 3 #us! spee$! to t!e %ational /n'owment o" Demo$"a$y in %o8embe" 2003
Si0ty yea"s o 2este"n nations e0$using an' a$$ommo'ating t!e la$= o "ee'om in t!e 1i''le /ast 'i' not!ing to ma=e us sa e7 be$ause in t!e long "un stability $annot be pu"$!ase' at t!e e0pense o libe"ty.T
23
Hege ,ood- 3conomy

Heg secures %he economy> - reasons
*oo% =!
:1a07 Senio" -ellow at t!e 5oun$il on -o"eign 6elations7 4(107 ,!e 2ee=ly Stan'a"'7 H.owe" o" &oo'D Sin$e t!e en' o t!e 5ol' 2a"7 3me"i$a t!e ?n'ispensableI7 @;%<
t!e Unite' States p"o8i'es t!e se$u"ity essential o" inte"national $omme"$e by7 o" instan$e7 poli$ing s!ipping lanes. Se$on'7 t!e Unite' States sa egua"'s t!e e0t"a$tion an' e0po"t o 1i''le /aste"n oil7 t!e li ebloo' o t!e global e$onomy. ,!i"'7 in t!e moneta"y "ealm7 t!e Unite' States !as ma'e t!e 'olla" Tt!e wo"l'Cs C"ese"8eC $u""en$yT an' supplie' loans to Tgo8e"nments in t!e t!"oes o $u""en$y $"ises.T -ou"t!7 t!e Unite' States !as pus!e' o" t!e e0pansion o inte"national t"a'e by mi'wi ing t!e 2o"l' ,"a'e O"gani+ation7 t!e %o"t! 3me"i$an -"ee ,"a'e 3g"eement7 an' ot!e" inst"uments o libe"ali+ation. 3n' i t!7 by p"o8i'ing a "ea'y ma"=et o" goo's e0po"te' by su$! $ount"ies as 5!ina an' >apan7 t!e Unite' States Tbe$ame t!e in'ispensable supplie" o 'eman' to t!e wo"l'.T
1an'elbaum also points to i8e e$onomi$ bene its o 3me"i$an powe". -i"st7 3tlanti$ an' .a$i i$
3conomic co''apse 'eads %o nuc'ear war

0he *a'%imore 34aminer $ MH2ill t!is "e$ession lea' to 2o"l' 2a" ??7I 2;267 !ttp4;;www.e0amine".$om;0(3108(#altimo"e(6epubli$an(/0amine"]y2009m2'26(2ill(t!is(
"e$ession(lea'(to(2o"l'(2a"(???N
5oul' t!e $u""ent e$onomi$ $"isis a e$ting t!is $ount"y an' t!e wo"l' lea' to anot!e" wo"l' wa"J ,!e answe" may be oun' by loo=ing ba$= in !isto"y. One o t!e $auses o 2o"l' 2a" ? was t!e e$onomi$ "i8al"y t!at e0iste' between t!e nations o /u"ope. ?n t!e 19t! $entu"y -"an$e an' &"eat #"itain be$ame wealt!y t!"oug! $olonialism an' t!e $ont"ol o o"eign "esou"$es. ,!is o"$e' ot!e" up(an'($oming nations :su$! as &e"many< to be mo"e $ompetiti8e in wo"l' t"a'e w!i$! le' to "i8al"ies an' ultimately7 to wa". 3 te" t!e &"eat Dep"ession "uine' t!e e$onomies o /u"ope in t!e 1930s7 as$ist mo8ements a"ose to see= e$onomi$ an' so$ial $ont"ol. -"om t!e"e anati$s li=e Hitle" an' 1ussolini too= o8e" &e"many an' ?taly an' le' t!em bot! into 2o"l' 2a" ??. 2it! most o %o"t! 3me"i$a an' 2este"n /u"ope $u""ently e0pe"ien$ing a "e$ession7 will $ompetition o" "esou"$es an' e$onomi$ "i8al"ies wit! t!e 1i''le /ast7 3sia7 o" Sout! 3me"i$an $ause anot!e" wo"l' wa"J 3'' in nu$lea" weapons an' ?slami$ un'amentalism an' t!ings loo= e8en wo"se. Hope ully t!e e$onomy gets bette" be o"e it gets wo"se an' t!e %erri)ying possi&i'i%y o 2o"l' 2a" ??? is a8e"te'. Howe8e" some%imes his%ory repea%s i%se').
24
----34%. 3conomy
Heg so';es economic co''apse : %he ,rea% Depression pro;es
5ande'&aum =M1i$!ael7 ."o esso" an' Di"e$to" o t!e 3me"i$an -o"eign .oli$y ."og"am at >o!ns Hop=ins The Case for Goliath* #o) A'erica Acts As the $orld!s Go&ern'ent in the T)enty+,irst Century 7 p. 192(19*N 3lt!oug! t!e sp"ea' o nu$lea" weapons7 wit! t!e $o""espon'ing in$"ease in t!e li=eli!oo' t!at a nu$lea" s!ot woul' be i"e' in ange" somew!e"e in t!e wo"l'7 $ounte' as t!e most se"ious potential $onseBuen$e o t!e aban'onment by t!e Unite' States o its "ole as t!e wo"l'Cs go8e"nment7 it was not t!e only one. ?n t!e p"e8ious pe"io' o 3me"i$an inte"national "eti$en$e7 t!e 1920s an' 1930s7 t!e global e$onomy su e"e' se"ious 'amage t!at a
,!e e$onomi$ $ollapse o t!e 1930s $ause' e0tensi8e !a"'s!ip t!"oug!out t!e wo"l' an' le' in'i"e$tly to 2o"l' 2a" ?? by pa8ing t!e way o" t!e people w!o sta"te' it to gain
mo"e a$ti8e 3me"i$an "ole mig!t !a8e mitigate'. 3 twenty( i"st($entu"y 3me"i$an "et"eat $oul' !a8e simila"ly a'8e"se inte"national e$onomi$ $onseBuen$es. powe" in &e"many an' >apan. ?n "et"ospe$t7 t!e &"eat Dep"ession is wi'ely belie8e' to !a8e been $ause' by a se"ies o e""o"s in publi$ poli$y t!at ma'e an e$onomi$ 'owntu"n a" wo"se t!an it woul' !a8e been !a' go8e"nments "espon'e' to it in app"op"iate as!ion. Sin$e t!e 1930s7 a$ting on t!e lessons '"awn "om t!at e0pe"ien$e by p"o essional e$onomists7 go8e"nments !a8e ta=en steps t!at !a8e !elpe' to p"e8ent a "e$u""en$e o t!e 'isaste"s o t!at
-is$al an' moneta"y $"ises !a8e e8o=e' "es$ue e o"ts "at!e" t!an a stu'ie' in'i e"en$e base' on t!e assumption t!at ma"=et o"$es will "ea'ily "eestablis! a 'esi"able e$onomi$ eBuilib"ium . ?n $ont"ast to
'e$a'e.C ?n t!e a$e o "e'u$e' 'eman'7 o" e0ample7 go8e"nments !a8e in$"ease' "at!e" t!an $ut spen'ing. t!e wi'esp"ea' p"a$ti$e o t!e 1930s7 politi$al aut!o"ities now un'e"stan' t!at putting up ba""ie"s to impo"ts in an attempt to "e8i8e 'omesti$ p"o'u$tion will in a$t wo"sen e$onomi$ $on'itions e8e"yw!e"e. Still7 a se"ious7 p"olonge' ailu"e o t!e inte"national e$onomy7 in li$ting t!e =in' o !a"'s!ip t!e wo"l' e0pe"ien$e' in t!e 1930s :w!i$! some 3sian $ount"ies also su e"e' as a "esult o t!ei" is$al $"ises in t!e 1990s< 'oes not lie beyon' t!e "ealm o possibility. 1a"=et e$onomies "emain subAe$t to $y$li$al 'owntu"ns7 w!i$! publi$ poli$y $an limit but !as not oun' a way to eliminate enti"ely. 1a"=ets also !a8e an in!e"ent ten'en$y to o"m bubbles7 e0$essi8e 8alues o" pa"ti$ula" assets7 w!et!e" se8enteent! $entu"y Dut$! tulips o" twentiet! $entu"y >apanese "eal estate an' ,!ai $u""en$y7 t!at $ause e$onomi$ !a"m w!en t!e bubble bu"sts an' p"i$es plunge. ?n "espon'ing to t!ese e8ents7 go8e"nments $an ma=e e""o"s. ,!ey $an a$t too slowly7 o" ail to implement t!e p"ope" poli$ies7 o" implement imp"ope" ones. 1o"eo8e"7 t!e global e$onomy an' t!e national e$onomies t!at $omp"ise it7 li=e a li8ing o"ganism7 $!ange $onstantly an' sometimes "api'ly4 5apital lows a$"oss so8e"eign bo"'e"s7 o" instan$e7 a" mo"e "api'ly an' in mu$! g"eate" 8olume in t!e ea"ly twenty( i"st $entu"y t!an e8e" be o"e. ,!is means t!at measu"es t!at su$$ess ully a''"ess e$onomi$ mal un$tions at one time may !a8e less e e$t at anot!e"7 Aust as me'i$al s$ien$e must $ope wit! t!e appea"an$e o new st"ains o in luen+a against w!i$! e0isting 8a$$ines a"e not e e$ti8e.
1ost impo"tantly7 sin$e t!e &"eat Dep"ession7 an a$ti8e 3me"i$an inte"national e$onomi$ "ole !as been $"u$ial bot! in o"ti ying t!e $on'itions o" global e$onomi$ well(being an' in $oping wit! t!e p"oblems t!at !a8e o$$u""e'7 espe$ially pe"io'i$ "e$essions an' $u""en$y $"ises7 by applying t!e lessons o t!e past. ,!e absen$e o su$! a "ole $oul' wea=en t!ose $on'itions an' agg"a8ate t!ose p"oblems. ,!e o8e"all 3me"i$an "ole in t!e wo"l' sin$e 2o"l' 2a" ?? t!e"e o"e !as somet!ing in $ommon wit! t!e t!eme o t!e -"an= 5ap"a ilm ?tCs a 2on'e" ul @i e7 in w!i$! t!e angel 5la"en$e7 playe' by
Hen"y ,"a8e"s7 s!ows >ames Stewa"t7 playing t!e ban= $le"= &eo"ge #ailey7 w!o belie8es !is e0isten$e to !a8e been wo"t!less7 !ow li e in !is small town o #e' o"' -alls woul' !a8e un ol'e' !a' !e ne8e" been bo"n. &eo"ge #ailey lea"ns t!at people !e =nows an' lo8es tu"n out to be a" wo"se o wit!out !im. So . 2it!out t!at "ole7 t!e wo"l' 8e"y li=ely woul' !a8e been in t!e past7 an' woul' be$ome in t!e utu"e7 a less se$u"e an' less p"ospe"ous pla$e. ,!e ab'i$ation by t!e Unite' States o some o" all o t!e "esponsibilities o" inte"national se$u"ity t!at it !a' $ome to bea" in t!e i"st 'e$a'e o t!e twenty( i"st $entu"y woul' 'ep"i8e t!e inte"national system o one o its p"in$ipal sa ety eatu"es7 w!i$! =eeps $ount"ies "om smas!ing into ea$! ot!e"7 as t!ey a"e !isto"i$ally p"one to 'o. ?n t!is sense7 a wo"l' wit!out 3me"i$a woul' be t!e eBui8alent o a "eeway ull o $a"s wit!out b"a=es. Simila"ly7 s!oul' t!e 3me"i$an go8e"nment aban'on some o" all o t!e ways in w!i$! it !a'7 at t!e 'awn o t!e new $entu"y7 $ome to suppo"t global e$onomi$ a$ti8ity7 t!e wo"l' e$onomy woul' un$tion less e e$ti8ely an' mig!t e8en su e" a se8e"e an' $ostly b"ea='own. 3 wo"l' wit!out t!e Unite' States woul' in t!is way "esemble a leet o $a"s wit!out gasoline.
it is wit! t!e Unite' States an' its "ole as t!e wo"l'Cs go8e"nment
2*
Hege ,ood- 5idd'e 3as% 6ar

US presence in %he 5id 3as% is <ey %o oi' securi%y %ha% pre;en%s grea% power wars
5ead =#
:2alte" 6ussell7 senio" ellow at t!e 5oun$il on -o"eign 6elations7 T2!y weC"e in t!e gul T 1(17 !ttp4;;www.opinionAou"nal.$om;e'ito"ial; eatu"e.!tmlJi'Q110011063<
,!e en' o 3me"i$aCs ability to sa egua"' t!e &ul an' t!e t"a'e "outes a"oun' it woul' be eno"mously 'amaging((an' not Aust to us. De ense bu'gets woul' g"ow '"amati$ally in e8e"y maAo" powe" $ente"7 an' 1i''le /aste"n politi$s woul' be u"t!e" 'estabili+e'7 as e8e"y $ount"y soug!t politi$al in luen$e in 1i''le /aste"n $ount"ies to ensu"e a$$ess to oil in t!e "esulting "ee o" all. ,!e potential o" $on li$t an' $!aos is "eal. 3 wo"l' o inse$u"e an' suspi$ious g"eat powe"s engage' in milita"y $ompetition o8e" 8ital inte"ests woul' not be a sa e o" !appy pla$e. /8e"y s!ip t!at 5!ina buil's to p"ote$t t!e in$"easing numbe"s o supe"tan=e"s nee'e' to b"ing oil "om t!e 1i''le /ast to 5!ina in yea"s a!ea' woul' also be a t!"eat to >apanCs oil se$u"ity((as well as to t!e oil se$u"ity o ?n'ia an' ,aiwan. /u"opean $oope"ation woul' li=ely be un'e"mine' as well7 as $ount"ies soug!t to ma=e t!ei" best 'eals wit! 6ussia7 t!e &ul states an' ot!e" oil "i$! neig!bo"s li=e 3lge"ia. 3me"i$aCs .e"sian &ul poli$y is one o t!e $!ie ways t!"oug! w!i$! t!e U.S. is t"ying to buil' a pea$e ul wo"l' an' w!e"e t!e e0e"$ise o 3me"i$an powe"7 w!ile '"i8en ultimately by 'omesti$ $on$e"ns an' by t!e 3me"i$an national inte"est7 p"o8i'es 8ital publi$ goo's to t!e global $ommunity . ,!e ne0t 3me"i$an p"esi'ent7
"ega"'less o pa"ty an' "ega"'less o !is o" !e" 8iews about t!e wis'om o &eo"ge 2. #us!Cs in8asion o ?"aB7 will ne$essa"ily ma=e t!e se$u"ity o t!e .e"sian &ul states one o 3me"i$aCs 8e"y !ig!est inte"national p"io"ities.
5idd'e 3as% 6ar ,oes +uc'ear

>o!n 7 D5 ?"aB 5oalition7 ?S63/@? 2/3.O%S O- 13SS D/S,6U5,?O%4 3 ,H6/3, ,O ./35/7 1a"$! 7 !ttp4;;www.global"esea"$!.$a;a"ti$les;S,/2033.!tml 1eanw!ile7 t!e e0isten$e o an a"senal o mass 'est"u$tion in su$! an unstable "egion in tu"n !as se"ious impli$ations o" utu"e a"ms $ont"ol an' 'isa"mament negotiations7 an' e8en t!e t!"eat o nu$lea" wa". Seymou" He"s!
S%ein&ach
2002
S!oul' wa" b"ea= out in t!e 1i''le /ast again7... o" s!oul' any 3"ab nation i"e missiles against ?s"ael7 as t!e ?"aBis 'i'7 a nu$lea" es$alation7 on$e unt!in=able e0$ept as woul' now be a st"ong p"obability.T an' /+a" 2eissman7 ?s"aelCs $u""ent ."esi'ent sai' T,!e nu$lea" issue is gaining momentum:an' t!e< ne0t wa" will not be $on8entional.T 6ussia an' be o"e it t!e So8iet Union !as long been a maAo":i not t!e maAo"< ta"get o ?s"aeli nu=es. ?t is wi'ely "epo"te' t!at t!e p"in$ipal pu"pose o >onat!an
wa"ns7 T a last "eso"t7 .olla"'Cs spying o" ?s"ael was to u"nis! satellite images o So8iet ta"gets an' ot!e" supe" sensiti8e 'ata "elating to U.S. nu$lea" ta"geting st"ategy. :Sin$e laun$!ing its own satellite in 19887 ?s"ael no longe" nee's U.S. spy se$"ets.< ?s"aeli nu=es aime' at t!e 6ussian !ea"tlan' se"iously $ompli$ate 'isa"mament an' a"ms $ont"ol negotiations an'7 at t!e 8e"y least7 t!e unilate"al possession o nu$lea" weapons by ?s"ael is eno"mously 'estabili+ing7 an' '"amati$ally lowe"s t!e t!"es!ol' o" t!ei" a$tual use7 i not o" all out nu$lea" wa". ?n t!e wo"'s o 1a"= &a ney7 T... i t!e amilia" patte"n:?s"ael "e ining its weapons o mass 'est"u$tion wit! U.S. $ompli$ity< is not "e8e"se' soon( o" w!ate8e" "eason( t!e
'eepening 1i''le /ast $on li$t $oul' t"igge" a wo"l' $on lag"ation.T
26
----34%. 5idd'e 3as% 6ar

Heg <ey %o 5idd'e 3as% s%a&i'i%yEhis%ory pro;es
Chris%opher =
:2a""en7 %ew Po"= ,imes sta w"ite"7 !ttp4;;sele$t.nytimes.$om;sea"$!;"est"i$te';a"ti$leJ"esQ-#0#14-935*D05738-DD3#0994D54044827 12(20<
3me"i$a !as always been t!e in'ispensable pa"ty o" p"og"ess in t!e 1i''le /ast. ,!e b"illiant e o"ts o Se$"eta"y o State Hen"y )issinge" in 1974 an' 197* b"oug!t about ?s"aelCs wit!'"awal "om t!e Sinai an' t!e peninsulaCs "etu"n to /gypt. ."esi'ent >immy 5a"te"Cs legen'a"y en'ea8o"s at 5amp Da8i' in 1978 p"o'u$e' t!e ?s"ael( /gypt pea$e t"eaty7 w!i$! was suppo"te' by 3me"i$an inan$ial assistan$e to bot! $ount"ies. ,!at ai' $ontinues to yiel' "etu"ns to'ay. 3n' w!en ?s"ael an' >o"'an negotiate' a pea$e a$$o"' in >uly 19947 )ing Hussein7 t!e p"esent )ingCs at!e"7 tol' me t!at t!e negotiations $oul' not !a8e su$$ee'e' wit!out tangible suppo"t "om t!e Unite' States7 w!i$! was o"t!$oming in t!e o"m o 'ebt o"gi8eness an' milita"y eBuipment. #ut meaning ul 3me"i$an in8ol8ement at t!is $"iti$al time will "eBui"e mo"e t!an wo"'s an' 'olla"s (( it must ta=e t!e o"m o a$tion. ?t will not be enoug! o" ."esi'ent #us! to ma=e b"oa' poli$y statements7 !owe8e" eloBuent. ?t will also "eBui"e somet!ing beyon' telep!one 'iploma$y by Se$"eta"y o State('esignate 5on'olee++a 6i$e. 6elian$e on t!ese !an's(o met!o's p"omises a $ontinuation o t!e past ou" yea"sC ailu"es.
0he 5idd'e 3as% requires ou%side in%er;en%ion )or s%a&i'i%yEHeg pre;en%s arms races and con)'ic%
Fo))e ="
:>ose 7 .!.D. in go8e"nment7 p"o esso" o politi$al s$ien$e at Stan o"'7 H,!e 5ase o" 6est"aint7I !ttp4;;www.t!e(ame"i$an(inte"est.$om;ai2;a"ti$le.$ mJ?'Q333S1?'Q16< #ut o" a g"eat powe"7 alas7 t!e"e is mo"e to se$u"ity t!an Aust t!e p!ysi$al ability to sta8e o in8asion an' 'e eat. &"eat powe"s see= o"'e" beyon' t!ei" bo"'e"s7 an' "ig!tly so7 be$ause t!ey !a8e ot!e" 8ital inte"ests. ."ote$ting
be$ause U.S. gua"antees "elie8e allies o t!e nee' to p"ote$t t!emsel8es 7 su$! e0ten'e' se$u"ityI buil's "egional o"'e" by in!ibiting int"a(a"ea "i8al"y an' a"ms("a$ing. 2e 'on9t "eally want an un"est"aine' a"ms "a$e between 5!ina an' >apan in t!e .a$i i$7 'o weJ O" between ?s"ael an' /gypt. 3not!e" 8ital inte"est g"ows "om a p"e$autiona"y p"in$iple. .osen not only wants to "et"a$t t!e U.S. umb"ella "om >apan an' &e"many7 o" "om ?s"ael an' /gyptD !e also wants t!e Unite' States to Buit t!e 1i''le /ast. ,!is "eBui"es ait! in a sanguine assumption4 t!at t!is "egion st"et$!ing "om #ei"ut to )an'a!a" is $apable o balan$ing itsel . ?t ne8e" !as been able to 'o so7 as t!e st"i e(to"n post(Ottoman !isto"y o t!is a"ea 'emonst"ates. ?t !as always "eBui"e' an outsi'e balan$e". %o" is t!e 1i''le /ast li=e Fietnam o" Somalia7 w!i$! $oul' be sa ely aban'one'. ?t is t!e st"ategi$ a"ena o t!e 21st $entu"y7 "eplete wit! allies w!o must be s!elte"e' an' enemies w!o must be $!astene'.
$"iti$al allies is su$! a 8ital inte"est. -i"st7 be$ause it p"ese"8es in luen$e. Se$on'7 p"e$isely H Hen$e7 w!ate8e" t!e ate o t!e U.S. p"esen$e in ?"aB7 bases will !a8e to be =ept4 in o"mal ones li=e Hai a7 o"mal ones li=e \ata"7 Oman an' )uwait. ?n a$t7 in t!e penultimate moment o t"ut! wit! ?"an7 all o ?s"ael will be one
oil an' gasLst"ategi$ "esou"$es pa" e0$ellen$e7 w!ose low will not be "egulate' by ma"=et o"$es alone7 as t!e 6ussians an' 5!inese so well un'e"stan'. So H!an's o I an' Ho8e" t!e !o"i+onIL&"eat #"itain9s !isto"i$al "e$ipe7 plus nu=esLwill not a'' up to a post(?"aB g"an' st"ategy. /spe$ially sin$e #"itain9s be!in' was twi$e sa8e' by t!e Unite' StatesLw!en 3lbion so g"ie8ously mis$al$ulate' t!e /u"opean balan$e o powe" in t!e i"st an' t!i"' 'e$a'es o t!e 20t! $entu"y. #ut w!o will sa8e t!e 3me"i$an poste"io" on$e t!e $!i$=ens o aloo ness $ome !ome to "oostJ 3 g"eat powe" must $a""y g"eat bu"'ens7 o" it stops being one .
big stationa"y ai"$"a t $a""ie" o" t!e Unite' States. @et9s a'' a Hmino"I item li=e
27
708 Hege *ad- 6ar

3rr %owards hegemony &eing sus%aina&'e and good : %heir impac% %urns are e4aggera%ed
6oh')or%h 0" :2illiam7 ."o an' 5!ai" o Dept. o &o8e"nment K Da"tmout!7 Sp"ing7 HUnipola" stability4 t!e "ules o powe" analysisI7 Ha"8a"' ?nte"national 6e8iew7 Fol. 297 %o. 1< ,!e la"ge" p"oblem wit! $on lating powe"(as("esou"$es wit! powe"(as(in luen$e is t!at it lea's to a $onstant s!i ting o t!e goalposts. ,!e bette" t!e Unite' States be$omes at a$Bui"ing "esou"$es7 t!e g"eate" t!e a""ay o global p"oblems it is e0pe$te' to be able to "esol8e7 an' t!e g"eate" t!e appa"ent gap between its mate"ial $apabilities an' t!e en's it $an a$!ie8e . ,!e "esult is an en'less "aising o t!e ba" o" w!at it ta=es to be a unipola" powe". Samuel Huntington 'e ine' a unipola" state as one able He e$ti8ely to "esol8e all impo"tant inte"national issues alone7 an' no $ombination o ot!e" states woul' !a8e t!e powe" to p"e8ent it "om 'oing so.I ,!is is an e0t"ao"'ina"y stan'a"' t!at essentially $on lates unipola"ity wit! uni8e"sal empi"e . &"eat /u"opean powe"s 'i' not lose g"eat powe" status w!en t!ey aile' to !a8e t!ei" way7 in7 o" e0ample7 t!e #al=ans in t!e nineteent! $entu"y. ?n tu"n7 t!e Unite' States 'i' not $ease to be a supe"powe" w!en
it aile' to o8e"t!"ow -i'el 5ast"o in t!e 1960s. ,!e a$t t!at 2as!ington $annot p"e8ent Hugo 5!a8e+ "om t!umbing !is nose at US powe" is inte"esting an' pe"!aps e8en impo"tant7 but it 'oes not !a8e bea"ing on t!e pola"ity o t!e inte"national system De ining powe" as t!e ability to sol8e w!ate8e" global p"oblem is $u""ently in t!e !ea'lines 8i"tually gua"antees !ig!ly 8olatile p"ognosti$ations about pola"ity. ,!is so"t o !ea'line $!asing le' to tal=
. 3ssessing a$ti8e attempts by t!e Unite' States to employ its powe" $apabilities may well be t!e most mislea'ing way to t!in= about powe". ,!is app"oa$! ine8itably lea's to a sele$tion bias against e8i'en$e o t!e in'i"e$t7 Hst"u$tu"alI e e$ts o US powe" t!at a"e not 'epen'ent upon a$ti8e management . 1any e e$ts t!at $an be att"ibute' to t!e unipola" 'ist"ibution o powe" a"e 'e8elopments t!at ne8e" o$$u"4 $ounte"(balan$ing $oalitions 7 5ol' 2a"(s$ale a"ms "a$es7 !egemoni$ "i8al"y o" 'ominan$e7 se$u"ity 'ilemmas among 3sian powe"s7 an' 'e$isions by >apan an' ot!e"s to nu$lea"i+e. 5lea"ly7 assessing unipola"ity9s potential e e$ts in8ol8es weig!ing su$! non(e8ents against t!e mo"e salient e0amples in w!i$! a$ti8e attempts to use powe" "esou"$es a"e stymie'. #ut t!e sele$tion bias goes mu$! u"t!e". %ot only a"e non(e8ents 'ownplaye' in $ompa"ison to salient e8ents t!at appea" to 'emonst"ate t!e powe"lessness o t!e Unite' States7 but patte"ns o e8ents t!at 'o go its way a"e o ten misse'. 5onsi'e"7 o" e0ample7 !ow o ten 2as!ington9s ailu"e to !a8e its way in t!e Unite' %ations is $ite' as $ompa"e' to its e0pe"ien$e in t!e ?1-. 3n'7 e8en in t!e Unite' %ations7 a o$us on !ig!ly $onteste' issues7 su$! as t!e attempt at a se$on' "esolution aut!o"i+ing t!e in8asion o ?"aB7 a ils to note !ow t!e institution9s enti"e agen'a !as s!i te' to a''"ess $on$e"ns 7 su$! as te""o"ism7 t!at a"e pa"ti$ula"ly impo"tant to t!e Unite' States .
o Hempi"eI in 2002 an' 20037 Aust as it ee's to'ay9s multipola" mania
2rimacyDs ine;i%a&'e - (&ama wi'' ne;er change grand s%ra%egy

6a'% $
:Step!en7 6obe"t an' 6ene #el e" ."o esso" o ?nte"national 6elations at Ha"8a"' Uni8e"sity7 p"e8iously taug!t at ."in$eton Uni8e"sity an' t!e Uni8e"sity o 5!i$ago7 "esi'ent asso$iate o t!e 5a"negie /n'owment o" .ea$e an' a guest s$!ola" at t!e #"oo=ings ?nstitution7 %o8embe"7 H6esto"ing Sol8en$yI7 !ttp4;;www.ame"i$an"e8iewmag.$om;a"ti$les;"esto"ingsol8en$y<
?t is by now a $li$!^ to obse"8e t!at #a"a$= Obama too= o i$e a$ing t!e g"eatest $!allenge o any Unite' States p"esi'ent sin$e -"an=lin 6oose8elt. ,!e US e$onomy !a' been in "ee( all sin$e t!e no"t!e"n summe" o 20087 t!e nation9s image a"oun' t!e wo"l' !a' ta=en a beating o8e" t!e p"e8ious eig!t yea"s. Obama in!e"ite' a losing wa"
in ?"aB7 a 'ete"io"ating situation in 3 g!anistan an' a wi'e a""ay o un"esol8e' o"eign poli$y p"oblems. %o p"esi'ent in li8ing memo"y !a' ta=en o i$e wit! so mu$! to sol8e an' su$! limite' "oom to manoeu8"e. ,!e new
?n !is i"st 100 'ays7 Obama pus!e' t!"oug! an ambitious e$onomi$ "e$o8e"y p"og"am t!at in$lu'e' a maAo" is$al stimulus pa$=age7 a $ont"o8e"sial plan to buy up laun$!e' a 'i++ying set o o"eign poli$y initiati8es. 3 te" si0 mont!s7 Obama almost seeme' to be t!e mi"a$le wo"=e" !is $ampaign !a' p"omise' . 3s o"me" a'8iso" to ."esi'ent
p"esi'ent waste' little time in "espon'ing. to0i$ assets in t!e ban=ing in'ust"y7 a limite' bail(out o" automobile manu a$tu"e"s an' p"oposals o" a new "egulato"y "egime o" 2all St"eet. 3t t!e same time7 !e 5linton7 2illiam &alston7 $ommente' a te" Obama9s i"st 100 'ays4 H? !e9s "ig!t7 ou" t"a'itional notion o t!e limits o t!e possibleLt!e i'ea t!at 2as!ington $an only !an'le so mu$! at one timeLwill be blown to
appea"an$es $an be 'e$ei8ing7 an' t!is is almost $e"tainly t!e $ase w!en it $omes to o"eign poli$y. 3lt!oug! Obama !as ma'e a numbe" o positi8e mo8es7 !is a$tions to 'ate a"e mo"e style t!an substan$e. ,o be blunt7 anyone w!o e0pe$ts Obama to p"o'u$e a '"amati$ t"ans o"mation in 3me"i$a9s global position is going to be 'isappointe' . ,!e"e a"e t!"ee "easons w!y maAo" o"eign poli$y a$!ie8ements a"e unli=ely. -i"st7 t!e big issue is still t!e e$onomy7 an' Obama is going to o$us most o !is time an' politi$al $apital t!e"e. Su$$ess in t!is a"ea is $"iti$al to t!e "est o !is agen'a an' to !is p"ospe$ts o" "e(ele$tion in 2012. Se$on'7 Obama is a p"agmati$ $ent"ist an' !is o"eign poli$y team is ma'e up o mainst"eam libe"al inte"nationalists w!o belie8e a$ti8e US lea'e"s!ip is essential to sol8ing most inte"national p"oblems. 3lt!oug! t!ey will un'oubte'ly t"y to "e8e"se t!e e0$esses o t!e #us! a'minist"ation7 t!is g"oup is unli=ely to un'e"ta=e a un'amental "et!in=ing o t!e US9s global "ole. ,!i"'7 an' most impo"tant7 t!e"e a"e no easy p"oblems on Obama9s o"eign poli$y Hto('oI list. /8en i !e was able to 'e8ote !is ull attention to t!ese issues7 it woul' be 'i i$ult to "esol8e any o t!em Bui$=ly . ?n te"ms o g"an' st"ategy7
smit!e"eens.I Pet !is ultimate aim must be to b"ing US $ommitments ba$= into alignment wit! its inte"ests an' "esou"$esLto "esto"e w!at 2alte" @ippmann te"me' Hsol8en$yI to US o"eign poli$y. ,!is b"oa' goal $an be a$!ie8e' by e0t"i$ating
Obama will t"y to =eep US $ommitments wit!in boun's an' to imp"o8e "elations wit! se8e"al a'8e"sa"ies7 w!ile ta=ing symboli$ steps to "epai" t!e 'amage t!e #us! a'minist"ation 'i' to t!e $ount"y9s global "eputation. #ut !e is unli=ely to a$!ie8e any a"("ea$!ing b"ea=t!"oug!s. ,!e
t!e nation "om some $u""ent obligations7 by imp"o8ing "elations wit! a'8e"sa"ies7 by getting ot!e" states to bea" a g"eate" s!a"e o 3me"i$a9s bu"'en7 o" a $ombination o all t!"ee. o"eign poli$y agen'a at t!e en' o !is i"st te"m is li=ely to loo= a lot li=e it 'oes to'ay. ,o see w!y7 let us loo= mo"e $losely at t!e $"ises !e a$es.
28
708 Hege *ad- 6ar

2rimacy is )'e4i&'e and ine;i%a&'e : any pro&'ems can &e )i4ed
Haas $
:@aw"en$e >7 o"me" 2!ite House st"ategist an' awa"'(winning Aou"nalist7 Summe"7 H@ette" "om 2as!ington4 Don9t #et on 3me"i$a9s De$lineI7 !ttp4;;www.'issentmaga+ine.o"g;'emo$"atiya;a"ti$le.p!pJa"ti$leQ314<
De$linism7 as it applies to 3me"i$a7 !as a "i$! t"a'ition but7 to 'ate7 a !isto"y o aile' p"op!e$y. @i=e t!e $i$a'as t!at blan=et 2as!ington9s t"ees an' si'ewal=s e8e"y 17 yea"s7 t!e 'e$linists "ea" t!ei" !ea's about on$e a gene"ation7 p"opagating t!e latest 8e"sions o t!ei" t!esis7 s!ow$asing e8i'en$e o 3me"i$a9s $"eeping wea=ness X "om e$onomi$ stagnation to milita"y setba$= to 'iplomati$ "e8e"sal. -"om a momenta"y setba$= o" pe"!aps a st"ing o t!em o" t!e Unite' States7 t!e 'e$linists o e" 8isions o long(te"m $o""osion. ,!e intelle$tual pa"lou" game is as ol' as t!e 6epubli$. /u"opeans wi'ely e0pe$te' t!e Y3me"i$an e0pe"iment9 to ail. #"itis! $ontempt o" t!e young nation le' to t!e 2a" o 1812. %o" 'i' 3me"i$a9s "ise to global be!emot! by t!e late 19t! 5entu"y 'ete" t!e 'ooms'ay(e"s. ? anyt!ing7 t!ey g"ew bol'e". %o soone" !a' t!e Unite' States
eme"ge' 8i$to"ious "om 2o"l' 2a" ?? t!an $"iti$s lamente' So8iet sup"ema$y in t!e 5ol' 2a" t!at !a' Aust begun. Y2e98e lost t!e pea$e79 >o!n Dos .assos w"ote in ea"ly 1946 in @i e. Y-"ien' an' oe ali=e loo= you a$$usingly in t!e a$e an' tell you !ow bitte"ly t!ey a"e 'isappointe' in you as an 3me"i$an.9 1ao9s 8i$to"y in 5!ina in 19497 3me"i$a9s stalemate in )o"ea in t!e ea"ly 19*0s7 So8iet supp"ession o Hunga"y in 19*67 1os$ow9s laun$! o Sputni= in 19*77 an' $an'i'ate >o!n )enne'y9s wa"ning o a U.S.(So8iet Ymissile gap9 in 1960 all seeme' to p"o8e t!at !isto"y a8ou"e' $ommunism o8e" $apitalism. 3me"i$an p"ospe"ity an' )enne'y(e"a optimism p"o8i'e' a s!o"t "espite "om u"t!e" 'e$linism. ,!e U.S. 'eba$le in Fietnam7 %o"t! )o"ea9s $aptu"e o t!e USS .ueblo7 So8iet an' 5uban a'8entu"ism in 3 "i$a7 ?"an9s sei+u"e o t!e U.S. embassy in ,e!"an7 t!e So8iet in8asion o 3 g!anistan7 an' 3me"i$a9s e$onomi$ st"uggles in t!e 1970s painte' t!e Unite' States as a !elpless giant. ."esi'ent %i0on t"ans o"me' 'e$linism into national poli$y7 see=ing '^tente wit! t!e So8iets to ease U.S. ent"y into a new wo"l' o balan$e wit! t!e So8iet Union7 /u"ope7 5!ina7 an' >apan. ."esi'ent 5a"te" "ein o"$e' 'e$line e8e"7 lamenting ou" Y$"isis o $on i'en$e9 in !is Ymalaise9 spee$!. 3 te" ."esi'ent 6eagan soug!t to "easse"t U.S. sup"ema$y7 laun$!ing a milita"y buil'(up an' $on "onting t!e So8iets in !otspots t!e wo"l' o8e"7 Pale9s .aul )enne'y wa"ne' :in !is best(selling ,!e 6ise an' -all o t!e &"eat .owe"s< o 3me"i$a9s Yimpe"ial o8e"st"et$!79 in w!i$! ou" global obligations woul' su"pass ou" ability to inan$e t!em. Ot!e" 'e$linists o t!e pe"io' in$lu'e' Da8i' 5alleo :#eyon' 3me"i$an Hegemony< an' 2alte" 6ussell 1ea'7 :1o"tal Splen'o"<.
3me"i$a9s 8i$to"y
in t!e 5ol' 2a" mo$=e' 'e$linism7 but "e$ent e8ents !a8e ignite' its "ebi"t!. ,o'ay9s 'e$linists in$lu'es 8ete"ans o
past battles7 notably )enne'y7 an' new playe"s X -a"ee' Oa=a"ia :,!e .ost(3me"i$an 2o"l'<7 5!a"les )up$!an :,!e /n' o t!e 3me"i$a /"a<7 -"an$is -u=uyama :3me"i$a at t!e 5"oss"oa's<7 3n'"ew #a$e8i$! :,!e @imits o .owe"<7 an' a !ost o go8e"nment o $ials an' Aou"nalists. ,!ey w"ite boo=s an' op(e's an' appea" on ,F an' "a'io7 "e8iewing 3me"i$a9s missteps w!ile suggesting t!ey p"esage a mo"e multi(pola" wo"l'. -o" some7 li=e )enne'y7 'e$linism is a li e9s wo"=7 as !is "e$ent 2all St"eet >ou"nal ope'7 Y3me"i$an .owe" ?s on t!e 2ane79 ma=es $lea". -o" ot!e"s7 it9s a step along an intelle$tual Aou"ney. 2!ile -u=uyama mo8e' "om 2este"n t"iump!alism :in !is ,!e /n' o Histo"y an' t!e @ast 1an o 1992< to 'e$linism7 1ea' mo8e' t!e ot!e" way7 p"e'i$ting "e$ently in t!e %ew 6epubli$ t!at 3me"i$a will eme"ge "om to'ay9s global e$onomi$ $"isis in a st"onge" position atop t!e inte"national powe" "an=ings. ,o'ay9s
'e$linists 'o not ag"ee on w!at will $ause 3me"i$a9s "elati8e 'own all. -o" some7 it9s ?"aB t!at st"aine' ou" milita"y an' 'isplaye' t!e limits o U.S. powe". -o" t!ose w!o a$=nowle'ge 3me"i$a9s sta"tling tu"na"oun' in ?"aB7 it9s 3 g!anistan t!at will engul 3me"i$a in a Fietnam(style Buagmi"e. -o" ot!e"s7 to'ay9s e$onomi$ $"isis e0pose' t!e e0$esses o U.S.(le' $apitalism. ,!ei" p"es$"iption X mo"e go8e"nmental "egulation t!at will wea=en t!e lea'e" o t!e "ee(ma"=et pa$=. -o" still ot!e"s7 it9s 5!ina9s "ise an' 6ussia9s "esu"gen$e7 t!e i"st o w!i$! will s!i t global powe" to t!e /ast an' t!e se$on' o w!i$! will "est"i$t U.S. a$ti8ity ab"oa'. 3n' o" ot!e"s7 it9s no one e8ent o" U.S. e""o" but instea' t!e unsustainable natu"e o U.S. unipola"ity an' t!e ine8itable "ise o nations o" blo$s to $ounte"a$t it. \uestions o" to'ay9s 'e$linists 2ell7 maybe. #ut7 'e$linists !a8e a ew Buestions to answe". 2!y will to'ay9s e$onomi$ 'ist"ess an' milita"y $!allenge b"ing 3me"i$a9s 'e$line w!en p"io" $!allenges o g"eate" magnitu'e 'i' notJ 2!at woul' a post(3me"i$a wo"l' loo= li=e7 an' w!y s!oul' we buy t!e sta""y(eye' !opes o 3me"i$a9s ie"$est $"iti$s t!at a U.S. "et"eat woul' ma=e t!e wo"l' mo"e pea$e ul an' mo"e AustJ 2!o o" w!at will supplant t!e Unite' States atop t!e wo"l' stage 7 espe$ially w!en no alte"nati8e nation o" blo$ seems "ea'y to assume t!e mantleJ ,o be su"e7 t!e Unite' States a$es big $!allenges7 p"obably t!e most $omple0 set in 'e$a'es. On t!e e$onomi$ "ont7
businesses a"e s!e''ing Aobs7 $"e'it is "o+en7 inan$ial institutions a"e teete"ing7 sto$=s a"e wea=7 an' $onsume" $on i'en$e is $ollapsing. On t!e milita"y "ont7 3me"i$a9s a"me' o"$es a"e st"aine'7 3 g!anistan o e"s no easy solution7 an' e0plo'ing bu'get 'e i$its will en$ou"age Obama an' 5ong"ess to see= t!e i"st 'e ense $uts o t!e post(9;11 pe"io'. On t!e 'iplomati$ "ont7 t!e Unite' States will t"y to $on8in$e ?"an to s$"ap its nu$lea" p"og"am7 to imp"o8e its "elations wit! .a=istan w!ile ta"geting t!e ,aliban an' al(\ae'a st"ong!ol's in t!e %o"t!weste"n te""ito"ies7 an' to st"engt!en its ties to its /u"opean allies e8en as it $las!es wit! t!em o8e" st"ategy an' milita"y
p"ospe$ts o" $ontinue' U.S sup"ema$y loo= b"ig!te". ,!e e$onomy !as not "ea$!e' t!e 'ept!s o t!e 1981(82 "e$ession an' X to state t!e ob8ious X it will e8entually "e$o8e". ,!e issue is !ow ba' t!ings will get an' w!en t!e "e$o8e"y will a""i8e. /$onomists p"oAe$t unemployment will top nine pe"$ent be o"e it9s o8e"7 t!e tu"na"oun' will not begin until at least t!e en' o 20097 an' it may ta=e yea"s to "esto"e st"ong g"owt!. 3s o" 'e ense7 e8en wit! $uts7 t!e gap between annual U.S. e0pen'itu"es an' t!ose o any ot!e" nation "emains !uge. 1o"eo8e"7 t!e Unite' States spen's Aust ou" pe"$ent o its &"oss Domesti$ ."o'u$t on 'e ense an' inte"national a ai"s7 a !isto"i$ally low igu"e X $ompa"e' to7 o" instan$e7 10 pe"$ent un'e" ."esi'ent )enne'y. ?t !as ewe" a$ti8e 'uty t"oops t!an in t!e 19*0s7 '"awn "om a population t!at9s twi$e as la"ge. ,!e notion t!at 3me"i$a $an9t a o"' its milita"y obligations !as ne8e" been less t"ue. %ot long ago7 nations o" blo$s t!at we"e "ea'y to $!allenge 3me"i$a seeme' plenti ul. ,o'ay7 ea$! is plague' wit! p"oblems. 5!ina is "eeling "om t!e global e$onomi$ $"isis 7 wit! "ising unemployment an' smoul'e"ing 'omesti$ 'is$ontent. 6ussia is su e"ing "om t!e '"amati$ '"op in oil p"i$es7 t!e "esulting sBuee+e on go8e"nmental "e8enues7 an' 'eep(seate' so$ial an' e$onomi$ p"oblems. ?"an an' Fene+uela7 3me"i$a9s two lou'est nemeses7 a"e also "eeling "om low oil p"i$es7 o"$ing t!ei" lea'e"s to a''"ess su"ging e$onomi$ woes an' stabili+e t!ei" own "ule. 3 unite' /u"ope7 wit! a $ombine' milita"y an' o"eign poli$y7 "emains a pipe '"eam. ,o'ay7 'espite its p"oblems 3me"i$a "emains t!e wo"l'9s Ygoliat!79 in t!e wo"'s o 1i$!ael 1an'elbaum. ?t is t!e go(to powe" o" maintaining pea$e7 ensu"ing global $omme"$e7 an' "espon'ing to !umanita"ian 'isaste"s. U.S. se$u"ity t"eaties en$ompass mo"e t!an !al o t!e wo"l'. 3s 6obe"t >. @iebe" put it7 Y?n many instan$es7 an' pa"ti$ula"ly in u"gent an' 'i"e $ases su$! as t!e #al=an $"ises7 t!e $!oi$e boils 'own to t!is4 eit!e" t!e Unite' States will a$t o" no one will.9 2e s!oul' not e0pe$t t!at "eality to $!ange any time soon.
$ont"ibutions in 3 g!anistan. #ut step ba$= a bit7 an'
29
708 Hege *ad- China 6ar

US Hege de%ers China and 'eads %o s%a&i'i/a%ion a''owing a po'i%ica' so'u%ion %o &e &ro<ered.
(dgaard 2001
:@iselotte7 3sst ."o 7 o .oliti$al S$ien$e7 Uni8e"sity o 3a"!us7 Denma"=7 HDete""en$e an' 5o(ope"ation in t!e Sout! 5!ina SeaI7 5ontempo"a"y Sout!east 3sia7 3ug 17 le0is<
,!e Sout! 5!ina Sea $onstitutes a i"st line o 'e en$e o" t!e litto"al states o Sout!east 3sia. 3s a $onseBuen$e7 t!ey $annot a o"' to igno"e t!e wo"st($ase s$ena"io o $on li$t in8ol8ing 5!ina. ,!e maAo"ity o t!e Sout!east 3sian states !a8e emba"=e' on a mo'e"ni+ation o t!ei" na8al $apabilities7 aime' at 'e8eloping a 'ete""ent o"$e as well as a o"$e $apable o engaging in milita"y ope"ations at sea. Howe8e"7 t!e inan$ial $"isis o t!e late 1990s 'elaye' some o t!ese e o"ts7 ma=ing t!e Sout!east 3sian states mo"e "eliant on bilate"al 'e en$e a""angements7 in pa"ti$ula" wit! t!e Unite' States. ,!e main $ount"ies in t!e U.S. netwo"= o milita"y $o(ope"ation ag"eements a"e Singapo"e7 ,!ailan'7 an' t!e .!ilippines. ?n substitution o t!e pe"manent base a""angements 'u"ing t!e 5ol' 2a"7 U.S. t"oops !a8e "esume' Aoint e0e"$ises wit! t!e .!ilippines "om 2000. ?n gene"al7 t!e milita"y ag"eements a$ilitate t"aining7 e0e"$ises7 an' inte"ope"ability7 pe"mitting t!e Unite' States to be seen to be engage' in Sout!east 3sia as a le0ible "egional balan$e". ,!e Unite' States s!a"es t!e wi'esp"ea' pe"$eption wit!in Sout!east 3sia t!at 5!inaCs mo8es in t!e Sout! 5!ina Sea in'i$ate t!at it mig!t !a8e e0pansionist intentions. ,!us7 t!e Unite' States !as maintaine' its st"ategy o o"wa"' 'eployment.
Howe8e"7 5!ina is a powe" o se$on' "an= $ompa"e' wit! t!e Unite' States7 an' as su$!7 is no imme'iate t!"eat to t!e latte". ,!e"e o"e7 2as!ington p"e e"s t!at t!e "egional states settle t!ei" 'isputes wit!out its in8ol8ement as long as t!ese 'o not pose a t!"eat to U.S. inte"ests. 3lt!oug! t!e Unite' States loo=s at 5!inaCs Sp"atly poli$y as an in'i$ation o its possible bi' o" "egional !egemony7 it is not p"epa"e' to play an a$ti8e pa"t in t!e Sp"atly 'ispute unless "ee'om o na8igation t!"oug! Sout!east 3sian wate"s is t!"eatene'. 3t t!e same time7 t!e Unite' States maintains its suppo"t o" t!e 3S/3% position on t!e non(use o o"$e $on$e"ning 'ispute settlement in t!e Sout! 5!ina Sea. ,!us7 t!e U.S. poli$y on t!e Sp"atlys may be $!a"a$te"i+e' as gua"'e' non(in8ol8ement. 3me"i$an "ese"8ations about 'i"e$t in8ol8ement in t!e Sp"atly 'ispute 'o not imply t!at $o"'ial "elations between t!e Unite' States an' 5!ina a"e on t!e agen'a. On t!e $ont"a"y7 sin$e 19997 t!e "elations!ip between t!e two powe"s !as su e"e' a 'owntu"n be$ause o 5!inese opposition to t!e %o"t! 3tlanti$ ,"eaty O"gani+ation :%3,O< ai" st"i=es in Pugosla8ia7 t!e %3,O bombing o t!e 5!inese embassy in #elg"a'e7 an' a$$usations o 5!inese milita"y espionage in t!e Unite' States. ,!e 3'minist"ation o &eo"ge 2. #us! is unli=ely to $all o" a "e8i8al o t!e i'ea o a st"ategi$ pa"tne"s!ip wit! 5!ina. #us! 'es$"ibes 5!ina as a st"ategi$ $ompetito". M4N ?n line wit! t!is !a"'ening o U.S. poli$y towa"'s 5!ina7 #us! !as 8oi$e' st"ong suppo"t o" a t!eat"e missile 'e en$e :,1D< system $o8e"ing >apan7 Sout! )o"ea7 an' ,aiwan. ,e$!nologi$al $onst"aints a"e li=ely to o"$e #us! to mo'e"ate !is position on su$! 'e en$e plans. Howe8e"7 U.S. "eassu"an$es t!at "esea"$! an' 'e8elopment on t!e ,1D will $ontinue
,!is geost"ategi$ pi$tu"e suggests t!at $o(ope"ation on managing t!e "egional balan$e o powe" is not on t!e $a"'s. ?nstea'7 a st"u$tu"e o 'ete""en$e appea"s to be in t!e ma=ing. Dete""en$e is 'i"e$te' at t!e intentions o opponents4 i t!e e0isten$e o 'ete""ent o"$es a"e seen to p"e8ent t!e opponent "om a$!ie8ing gains t!"oug! agg"ession7 t!e opponent will "e "ain "om atta$=. ,!us7 t!e powe"(p"oAe$tion $apabilities o t!e 8a"ious states a"e $onst"aine' by a mutual 'isplay o o"$e between t!e Unite' States an' t!e Sout!east 3sian states on t!e one !an'7 an' 5!ina on t!e ot!e". 3 st"u$tu"e o 'ete""en$e 'oes not ope"ate on t!e basis o $oope"ation between opposing powe"s. %o" $an 'ete""en$e be eBuate' wit! 8iolen$e an' 8olatility. On t!e $ont"a"y7 t!e $onsoli'ation o a st"u$tu"e o 'ete""en$e in t!e Sout! 5!ina Sea may p"o8i'e Sout!east 3sia wit! t!e le8el o milita"y se$u"ity an' "eassu"an$e ne$essa"y to allow o" t!e 'e8elopment o st"onge" $o(ope"ati8e ties wit! 5!ina
only lea8es 5!ina wit! t!e option o p"o$ee'ing wit! milita"y mo'e"ni+ation to buil' up its 'ete""en$e $apabilities.
His%ory pro;es no ris< o) China warE%heir cards are a'' hype &wynne Dyer is a @on'on(base' in'epen'ent Aou"nalist w!ose a"ti$les a"e publis!e' in 4* $ount"ies7 04(29 -0$7 H5!ina unli=ely to engage in milita"y $on "ontation7I >a=a"ta .ost7
!ttp4;;www.t!eAa=a"tapost.$om;news;200*;03;12;$!ina(unli=ely(engage(milita"y($on "ontation.!tml
&i8en 3me"i$aCs monopoly o" !uge te$!nologi$al lea' in =ey a"eas li=e stealt! bombe"s7 ai"$"a t $a""ie"s7 long("ange senso"s7 satellite su"8eillan$e an' e8en in ant"y bo'y a"mo"7 &ossCs wa"ning is mislea'ing an' sel (se"8ing. 5!ina $annot p"oAe$t a se"ious milita"y o"$ e e8en 200 miles :=m< "om !ome7 w!ile 3me"i$an o"$es utte"ly 'ominate 5!inaCs o$ean "ontie"s7 many t!ousan's o miles :=ilomete"s< "om t!e Unite' States. #ut t!e '"umbeat o wa"nings about 5!inaCs TTmilita"y buil'(upTT $ontinues. >ust t!e ot!e" wee= U.S. De ense Se$"eta"y Donal' 6ums el' was wo""ying again about t!e e0pansion o t!e 5!inese na8y7 w!i$! is inally buil'ing some amp!ibious lan'ing s!ips !al a $entu"y a te"
#eiAingCs $on "ontation wit! t!e non(5ommunist "egime on t!e islan' o ,aiwan began. 3n' Senato" 6i$!a"' @uga"7 !ea' o t!e Senate -o"eign 6elations 5ommittee7 wa"ne' t!at i t!e /u"opean Union en's its emba"go on a"ms sales to 5!ina7 t!e U.S. woul' stop milita"y te$!nology sales to /u"ope. ?t will $ome as no su"p"ise7 t!e"e o"e7 t!at t!e maAo" U.S. 'e ense "e8iew planne' o" t!is yea" will $on$ent"ate on t!e "ising TTt!"eatTT "om 5!ina7 o" t!at t!is yea" o" t!e i"st time t!e Aoint U.S.(>apanese 'e ense poli$y statement name' 5!ina as a TTse$u"ity $on$e"nTT7 o" t!at t!e ,aiwan go8e"nment u"ge' t!e TTmilita"y en$i"$lementTT o 5!ina to p"e8ent any TT o"eign a'8entu"esTT by #eiAing. ?t $omes as no su"p"ise (( but it still ma=es no sense. 5!inaCs 'e ense bu'get t!is yea" is 247.7 billion yuan4 3"oun' USE30 billion at t!e o i$ial e0$!ange "ate. ,!e"e a"e t!ose in 2as!ington w!o will say t!at itCs mo"e li=e E60 billion in pu"$!asing powe"7 but t!en t!e"e use' to be TTe0pe"tsTT w!o annually p"o'u$e' !ugely in late' an' "ig!tening estimates o t!e So8iet 'e ense bu'get. Su$! people will always e0ist4 to Austi y a big U.S. 'e ense bu'get7 you nee' a big t!"eat. ?tCs t"ue t!at 247.7 billion yuan buys an aw ul lot o wa"m bo'ies in milita"y uni o"m in t!e low(wage 5!inese e$onomy7 but it 'oesnCt a$tually buy mu$! mo"e in t!e way o !ig!( te$! milita"y systems. ?tCs also t"ue t!at t!e 5!inese 'e ense bu'get !as g"own by 'ouble('igit in$"eases o" t!e past ou"teen yea"s4 ,!is yea" itCs up by 12.6 pe"$ent. #ut t!at is not signi i$antly aste" t!an t!e 5!inese e$onomy
. ?t woul' be astonis!ing i 5!ina $!ose %O, to mo'e"ni+e its a"me' o"$es as t!e "est o t!e e$onomy mo'e"ni+es7 an' t!e en' "esult is not going to be a milita"y ma$!ine t!at towe"s abo8e all ot!e"s. ? you p"oAe$t t!e
as a w!ole is g"owing7 an' itCs about w!at you !a8e to spen' in o"'e" to $on8e"t w!at use' to be a glo"i ie' peasant militia into a mo'e"n milita"y o"$e $u""ent g"owt! "ates o milita"y spen'ing in 5!ina an' t!e Unite' States into t!e utu"e7 5!inaCs 'e ense bu'get $at$!es up wit! t!e Unite' States about t!e same time t!at its &"oss Domesti$ ."o'u$t 'oes7 in t!e late 2030s o" t!e
3s to 5!inaCs st"ategi$ intentions7 t!e "e$o"' o t!e past is "eassu"ing in se8e"al "espe$ts. 5!ina !as almost ne8e" been milita"ily e0pansionist beyon' t!e t"a'itional boun'a"ies o t!e 1i''le )ing'om :w!i$! 'o in$lu'e ,ibet in t!e 8iew o most 5!inese<7 an' its bo"'e" $las!es wit! ?n'ia7 t!e So8iet Union an' Fietnam in t!e i"st 'e$a'es o 5ommunist "ule gene"ally en'e' wit! a 8olunta"y 5!inese wit!'"awal "om t!e 'ispute' te""ito"ies. ,!e same mo'e"ation !as usually applie' in nu$lea" matte"s. ,!e 5?3 "ets t!at 5!ina $oul' !a8e a !un'"e' nu$lea" missiles ta"gete' on t!e Unite' States by 201*7 but t!at is a$tually e8i'en$e o 5!inaCs g"eat "est"aint. ,!e i"st 5!inese nu$lea" weapons test was o"ty yea"s ago7 an' by now 5!ina $oul' !a8e t!ousan's o nu$lea" wa"!ea's ta"gete' on t!e U.S. i it wante'. :,!e Unite' States DO/S !a8e t!ousan's o nu$lea" wa"!ea's t!at $an st"i=e 5!inese ta"gets.< ,!e #eiAing "egime is obsesse' wit! e$onomi$ stability 7 be$ause it ea"s t!at a se8e"e 'owntu"n woul' t"igge" so$ial an' politi$al up!ea8al. ,!e last t!ing it wants is a milita"y $on "ontation wit! its biggest t"a'ing pa"tne"7 t!e Unite' States. ?t will go on playing t!e nationalist $a"' o8e" ,aiwan to $u""y 'omesti$ politi$al a8o"7 but t!e"e is no massi8e milita"y buil'(up an' no plausible t!"eat o impen'ing wa" in /ast 3sia.
ea"ly 2040s.
708 Hege *ad- 9ussian 6ar

+o chance o) U.S.-9ussia war
30
2er<o;ich 3
:&eo"ge .e"=o8i$!7 Fi$e ."esi'ent o" Stu'iesX&lobal Se$u"ity an' /$onomi$ De8elopment at t!e 5a"negie /n'owment o" ?nte"national .ea$e7 1a"$!;3p"il 20037 -o"eign 3 ai"s<
3s o" 6ussia7 a ull(s$ale wa" between it an' t!e Unite' States now seems in$on$ei8able. &i8en t!e 'esi"es o" la"ge" $uts in nu$lea" o"$es t!at 6ussia 'isplaye' in negotiating t!e 2002 1os$ow ,"eaty7 6ussia !a"'ly seems enoug! o a t!"eat to Austi y t!e si+e an' o"wa"'(
leaning postu"e o 3me"i$aCs p"esent a"senal.
+o scenario )or any con;en%iona' war going nuc'ear &e%ween %he U.S. and 9ussia 5anning 00
:6obe"t 1anning7 -o"me" 5.F. Sta"" Senio" -ellow o" 3sia Stu'ies7 an' Di"e$to"7 3sia Stu'ies7 5oun$il on -o"eign 6elations7 1a"$! 107 20007 ,!e 2as!ington .ost< 2e 'onCt want to go any lowe" be$ause we nee' t!ese weapons o" nu$lea" 'ete""en$e7 a$$o"'ing to State Depa"tment spo=esman >ames 6ubin. #ut !ow many nu=es 'o we nee' o" 'ete""en$e to be $"e'ibleJ 5!ina7 w!i$! ."esi'ent 5linton !as tal=e' o as a Tst"ategi$ pa"tne"7T !as a g"an' total o 20 ( $ount t!em ( st"ategi$ wa"!ea's t!at $oul' !it t!e Unite' States. %u$lea" wannabes li=e %o"t! )o"ea7 ?"an7 an' ?"aB woul' !a8e only a !an' ul i
Du"ing t!e 5ol' 2a"7 it was not !a"' to en8ision a $on8entional wa" in /u"ope es$alating into nu$lea" $on li$t. #ut to'ay it is 'i i$ult to spin a plausible s$ena"io in w!i$! t!e Unite' States an' 6ussia es$alate !ostilities into a nu$lea" e0$!ange. 6ussia !as no 2a"saw .a$t7 an' not mu$! o a $on8entional o"$e to spea= o .
t!ey 'i' manage to su$$ee' in Aoining t!e nu$lea" $lub. 6ussia7 w!i$! !as 67000 st"ategi$ wa"!ea's7 is no longe" an a'8e"sa"y. Pet U.S. nu$lea" planne"s still base t!ei" ta"geting plans on p"ospe$ti8e 6ussian ta"gets7 t!oug! no one will say so.
US-9ussian +uc'ear 6ar Does +o% 3sca'a%e

5ar%in> #2
:#"ian7 .ublis!e' in >ou"nal o .ea$e 6esea"$!7 Fol. 197 %o. 47 19827 pp. 287(300. H5"itiBue o %u$lea" /0tin$tionI7 !ttp4;;www.uow.e'u.au;a"ts;sts;bma"tin;pubs;82Ap".!tml7 5H<
@imite' nu$lea" wa" in t!e pe"ip!e"y. 3 wa" b"ea=s out in t!e 1i''le /ast7 an' "eso"t is ma'e to nu$lea" weapons7 =illing a ew !un'"e' t!ousan' people. ,!e Unite' States an' t!e So8iet Union pla$e t!ei" nu$lea" o"$es on t!e !ig!est ale"t. 3s t!e tension $ontinues to buil' up7 a state o eme"gen$y is 'e$la"e' in t!e US. %o"mal 'emo$"ati$ p"o$e'u"es a"e suspen'e'7 an' C'issi'entsC a"e "oun'e' up. 3 simila" p"o$ess o$$u"s in many $ount"ies allie' milita"ily to t!e US7 an' also wit!in t!e So8iet blo$. 3 "etu"n to t!e p"e($"isis state o a ai"s 'oes not o$$u" o" yea"s o" 'e$a'es. 3s well as p"e$ipitating bitte" politi$al "ep"ession7 t!e $"isis $ont"ibutes to an in$"ease' a"ms "a$e7 espe$ially among nonnu$lea" an' small nu$lea" powe"s 7 as no e e$ti8e san$tions a"e applie' to t!ose w!o use' nu$lea" weapons. 3not!e" simila" limite' nu$lea" wa" an' supe"powe" $"isis be$omes li=ely ... o" pe"!aps t!e s$ene s!i ts to s$ena"io b o" $. :b< @imite' nu$lea" wa" between t!e supe"powe"s. 3 limite' e0$!ange o nu$lea" weapons between t!e US an' t!e So8iet Union o$$u"s7 eit!e" 'ue to a$$i'ent o" as pa"t o a t!"eat($ounte"t!"eat situation. 3 si+able numbe" o milita"y o" $i8ilian ta"gets a"e 'est"oye'7 eit!e" in t!e US o" t!e So8iet Union o" in allie' states7 an' pe"!aps * o" 10 million people a"e =ille'. 3s in s$ena"io a7 states o eme"gen$y a"e 'e$la"e'7 politi$al 'issent "ep"esse' an' publi$ out"age $!annelle' into massi8e milita"y an' politi$al mobilisation to p"epa"e o" utu"e $on "ontations an' wa"s . S$ena"io $ be$omes mo"e li=ely. :$< &lobal nu$lea" wa". 3 massi8e nu$lea" e0$!ange o$$u"s7 =illing 200 million people in t!e US7 So8iet Union an' /u"ope. %ational go8e"nments7 t!oug! 'e$imate'7 su"8i8e an' apply b"utal poli$ies to obtain e$onomi$ an' milita"y "e$o8e"y7 b"oo=ing no 'issent. ?n t!e wa=e o t!e 'isaste"7 aut!o"ita"ian $i8ilian o" milita"y "egimes ta=e $ont"ol in $ount"ies "elati8ely uns$at!e' by t!e wa"7 su$! as 3ust"alia7 >apan an' Spain. ,!e "oa' is lai' to an e8en mo"e 'e8astating 2o"l' 2a" ?F. 1any ot!e" simila" s$ena"ios $oul' be p"esente'. One eatu"e o t!ese s$ena"ios is amilia"4 t!e eno"mous s$ale o p!ysi$al 'est"u$tion an' !uman su e"ing7 w!i$! is only 'imly in'i$ate' by t!e numbe"s o 'ea' an' inAu"e'7 w!et!e" %his is hundreds> or hundreds o) mi''ions. ,!is 'est"u$tion an' su e"ing is amilia" la"gely be$ause many people !a8e "epeate'ly wa"ne' o t!e !uman $onseBuen$es o nu$lea" wa". 2!at !as been almost enti"ely absent "om pea$e mo8ement analysis an' planning is any $onsi'e"ation o t!e politi$al $onseBuen$es o nu$lea" wa". ?n t!is pape" ? $"iti$ally analyse t!e i'ea t!at nu$lea" wa" will =ill most people on ea"t!7 an' p"esent some possible "easons o" t!e p"e8alen$e o t!is an' "elate' belie s. ? a"gue t!a% e4aggera%ed ideas a&ou% nuc'ear war are &o%h a cause and an e))ec% o) a 'imi%ed po'i%ica' ana'ysis w!i$! un'e"lies mu$! a$ti8ity 'i"e$te' towa"'s eliminating nu$lea" wa". Some "ea'e"s may eel t!at in $"iti$ising t!e i'ea o nu$lea" e0tin$tion ? t!e"eby be$ome an apologist o" t!e milita"y. ,o t!is ? "espon' as
:a< ollows. -i"st7 i pea$e a$ti8ists !ol' o" p"omote e0agge"ate' 8iews about nu$lea" wa"7 t!ese nee' to be Austi ie' on some g"oun's su$! as politi$al ne$essity. ,!is !as not been 'one. ?n'ee'7 ? a"gue t!at belie s in e0tin$tion t!"oug! nu$lea" wa" a"e $ounte"p"o'u$ti8e o" t!e pea$e mo8ement. Se$on'7 t!e test o a pea$e a$ti8ist s!oul' be politi$al an' so$ial e e$ti8eness in !elping people mo8e toget!e" towa"'s a wo"l' wit!out wa"7 not t!e e0t"emity o oneCs 8iews about t!e $onseBuen$es o nu$lea" wa".
31
708 Hege *ad- 0errorism

(n'y Heg can pre;en% 65D %errorism
Schmi%% =!
M&a"y7 6esi'ent s$!ola" an' 'i"e$to" o t!e ."og"am on 3'8an$e' St"ategi$ Stu'ies at t!e 3me"i$an /nte"p"ise ?nstitute7 H?s t!e"e any alte"nati8e to U.S. p"ima$yJI ,!e 2ee=ly Stan'a"'7 #oo=s S 3"ts7 Fol. 11 %o. 227 -eb"ua"y7 @e0isN
,!e Unite' States an' t!e 2est a$e a new t!"eat((weapons o mass 'est"u$tion in t!e !an's o te""o"ists((an'7 w!et!e" we li=e it o" not7 no powe" ot!e" t!an t!e Unite' States !as t!e $apa$ity7 o" $an p"o8i'e t!e 'e$isi8e lea'e"s!ip7 "eBui"e' to !an'le t!is an' ot!e" $"iti$al global se$u"ity issues.
_,!e $o"e a"gument itsel is not new4 5e"tainly not t!e Unite' %ations o"7 anytime soon7 t!e /u"opean Union. ?n t!e absen$e o 3me"i$an p"ima$y7 t!e inte"national o"'e" woul' Bui$=ly "etu"n to 'iso"'e". ?n'ee'7 w!ate8e" legitimate $on$e"ns people may !a8e about
$"iti$s Tten' to 'well 'isp"opo"tionately on p"oblems in t!e e0e"$ise o M3me"i$anN powe" "at!e" t!an on t!e 'i"e $onseBuen$es o "et"eat "om an ac%i;is% )oreign po'icy7T @iebe" w"ites. ,!ey o"get Tw!at $an
t!e a$t o 3me"i$aCs p"ima$y7 t!e 'ownsi'es o not asse"ting t!at p"ima$y a"e7 a$$o"'ing to ,!e 3me"i$an /"a7 potentially a" mo"e se"ious. ,!e !appen in t!e absen$e o su$! powe".T`
0erroris%s donG% ha;e %he %echno'ogica' <now'edge %o crea%e nuc'ear weapons

.amd =$!
:)a"l(Hein+7 !ea' o t!e se$u"ity poli$y se$tion o t!e )on"a'(3'enaue"(Sti tung in San=t 3gustin7>uly7 #ulletin o t!e 3tomi$ S$ientists7 p. @;%<
Obtaining weapon(g"a'e issile mate"ial is only t!e i"st step in buil'ing a nu$lea" bomb7 weapons "eBui"e a !ost o ot!e" Te0oti$T "aw mate"ials. 3n' t!e amount o issile mate"ial nee'e' 'es$en's on t!e le8el o a$$essible te$!nology. 3s a "ule7 t!e mo"e basi$ t!e 'esign o a nu$lea" weapon7 t!e mo"e issile mate"ial "eBui"e'. ?t is t"ue t!at some weapons nee' no mo"e t!an a single =ilog"am o plutonium7 but t!ese a"e weapons p"o'u$e' only in t!e !uge nu$lea" labo"ato"ies o t!e supe"powe"s7 t!e Unite' States an' 6ussia7 an' t!ey "eBui"e te$!nologies li=e supe" $omp"ession7 w!i$! !a8e not 8et been maste"e' by ot!e" 2este"n nu$lea" $owe"s7 let alone by any nongo8e"nmental7 nu$lea" aspi"ants. 3pa"t "om p"o'u$ing o" obtaining issile mate"ial7 t!e p"o'u$tion o a weapon "eBui"es !ig!ly Buali ie' pe"sonnel
wit! spe$ial =now(!ow in t!e iel's o p!ysi$s7 $!emist"y7 metallu"gy7 an' ele$t"oni$s. Spe$ial te$!ni$al appa"atus an' $omple0 $omponents a"e nee'e' t!at $annot be pu"$!ase' o t!e s!el . ,!is applies in pa"ti$ula" to
. ?t is almost absu"' to ea" te""o"ist bombs ma'e "om smuggle' plutonium . 1o"e basi$ nu$lea" weapon 'esign so($alle' Tgun(typeT 'e8i$es use only u"anium. 3n' gun(type 'esigns "eBui"e masses o issile mate"ial((Buantities t!at go a" beyon' any amount t!at !as "epo"te'ly been o e"e' on a bla$= ma"=et.
plutonium $omponents7 w!i$! must be ma$!ine' to e0a$ting te$!ni$al 'eman's
0erroris% groups canD% produce nuc'ear weapons

5on%erey Ins%i%u%eGs Cen%er )or +onpro'i)era%ion S%udies =0! :3p"il7 20067 p. !ttp4;;www.nti.o"g; Wwm'411; 1a6W4.!tml< ?t is 8e"y 'oubt ul t!at any te""o"ist g"oup $oul' p"o'u$e a nu$lea" weapon on its own wit!out assistan$e "om a state nu$lea" p"og"am. 3$Bui"ing an' en"i$!ing u"anium7 o" $"eating plutonium in a nu$lea" "ea$to"7 is an e0t"emely e0pensi8e an' 'i i$ult p"o$ess 7 "eBui"ing e0pensi8e eBuipment an' sop!isti$ate' te$!niBues. /8en i a te""o"ist g"oup we"e able to a$Bui"e enoug! weapons(g"a'e H/U o" plutonium7 it is still a te$!ni$ally 'eman'ing an' e0pensi8e tas= to put toget!e" e8en a simple nu$lea" 'e8i$e . ."o'u$ing a $!emi$al o"7 te""o"ism weapon woul' be a" easie" o" te""o"ists to a$$omplis! t!an
$"eating a nu$lea" weapon.
0erroris%s canD% &ui'd a nuc'ear &om&- you shou'd assign %his /ero ris<
9o%hs%ein> 7uer and Siege' 200
!ttp4;;www.t!ebulletin.o"g;a"ti$al".p!pa"tWo nQn'04"ot!stein< :@in'a e'ito"7 5at!e"in7 1anaging e'ito"7 an' >onas7 3ssistant e'ito" o t!e #ulletin o 3tomi$ S$ientists7 #3S7 %o8embe";De$embe"7
5oul' te""o"ists p"o'u$e an enti"ely 'o(it you"sel nu$lea" bomb; -ab"i$ating issile mate"ial7 !ig!ly en"i$!e' u"anium :H/U< o" sepa"ate' plutonium is e0$ee'ingly labo" an' "esou"$e intensi8eLan' bot! a$ti8ites p"esent many oppo"tunities o" 'ete$tion. ,e""o"ist p"o'u$e' issile mate"ial is so e0t"emely unli=ely t!at its sa e to $all it impossible.
32
708 ())shore *a'ancing 1ron%'ine

Ca''s )or o))shore &a'ancing are hope'ess'y op%imis%ic : %he on'y grand s%ra%egy is <ey %o primacy
5cDonough $ :Da8i'. S. 1$Donoug!7 -ellow at t!e 5ent"e
o8e"loo=e'. 5!"istop!e" o" -o"eign .oli$y Stu'ies at Dal!ousie Uni8e"sity7 H#eyon' ."ima$y4 Hegemony an' YSe$u"ity 3''i$tion9 in U.S. &"an' St"ategyI7 2inte" 20097 O"bis7 S$ien$eDi"e$t< .osen an' 6ossCs ou"( ol' typology o st"ategi$ $!oi$es o e"s an a'mi"able $la"i i$ation o t!e =ey positions o an ot!e"wise esote"i$ 'ebate. Pet t!e "ei i$ation o t!ese options $a""ies t!e 'ange" t!at simila"ities $an be
@ayne7 o" e0ample7 a"gues t!at 3me"i$an g"an' st"ategy !as essentially been $on$e"ne' wit! maintaining U.S. st"ategi$ p"epon'e"an$e. Sele$ti8e engagement still en8isions a o"wa"' st"ategi$ p"esen$e to balan$e potential $ompetito"s an' p"ese"8e 3me"i$an !egemony7 an' $oope"ati8e se$u"ity woul' only u"t!e" "ei y an 3me"i$an $ente"e' institutional o"'e". 3 g"an' st"ategy o To s!o"e balan$ing 7T w!i$! in$o"po"ates neo(isolationist p"es$"iptions wit! a mo"e a$ti8e "ole as t!e Tbalan$e" o last "eso"t7T is a'8o$ate' as an anti'ote to 8isions o !egemoni$ g"an'eu". @ayneCs 8ision is 'e$i'e'ly optimisti$ on t!e potential bene its o an e8entual multipola" en8i"onment7 e8en as it p"es$"ibes a smalle"7 ma"itime( o"iente' milita"y an' t!e 'ismantlement o entangling allian$es.C 3 ?t is 'i i$ult to 'eny t!at bot! p"ima$y an' sele$ti8e engagement ta=e t!e p"ese"8ation o 3me"i$an st"ategi$ p"epon'e"an$e as a $on$eptual sta"ting point. ."ima$ists a"e simply mo"e optimisti$ on t!e $ontinue' 8itality o 3me"i$an powe"7 an' a"e7 t!e"e o"e7 "elu$tant to "ely on ot!e" $ount"ies to p"o8i'e "egional $ounte"weig!ts to any $!allenge". /8en suppo"te"s o $oope"ati8e se$u"ity !a8e g"own to s!a"e t!is app"e$iation o" 3me"i$an !egemony. ?n t!is lig!t7 t!e 5linton a'minist"ationCs willingness to emb"a$e elements o t!ese 'i e"ent app"oa$!es7 "at!e" t!an an abe""ation "om an un'is$ipline' p"esi'en$y7 seems to be a mo"e natu"al $on'ition a"ising "om $on lating 3me"i$an unipola"ity an' its libe"al st"ategi$ $ultu"e .
Hour %urns are ine;i%a&'e and &a'ancing is impossi&'e : o%her na%ions wi'' a'ways percei;e %he US as %he hegemon
Dre/ner 0$
:Daniel 2.7 ."o esso" o ?nte"national .oliti$s at ,u ts an' a senio" e'ito" at ,!e %ational ?nte"est7 7;1*; 097 H,!e -alse Hegemon7I !ttp4;;www.nationalinte"est.o"g;3"ti$le.asp0Ji'Q218*8<
is 3me"i$a "eally Aust one o many nationsJ Despite e8e"yt!ing t!at !as be allen t!e Unite' States 'u"ing t!is 'e$a'e7 t!e a$t "emains t!at by stan'a"' met"i$sL&D.7 milita"y mig!t7 $ultu"al att"a$tionLt!e Unite' States is a" an' away t!e most powe" ul $ount"y in t!e wo"l' . ,!is a$t is so gla"ing t!at e8en a$a'emi$s a"e sta"ting to a$=nowle'ge it. Step!en #"oo=s an' 2illiam 2o!l o"t! w"ote an enti"e boo= on t!e 'u"ability o 3me"i$an unipola"ity. 2o"l' .oliti$s publis!e' a spe$ial issue t!is yea" on t!e natu"e o t!e unipola" e"a. 0he res% o) %he wor'd cer%ain'y seems %o %rea% 7merica as %he hegemonic power 7 o" goo' o" ill. 3$$o"'ing to t!e %ew Po"= ,imes7 @atin 3me"i$a is waiting o" t!e Unite' States to b"ea= t!e 'ea'lo$= in Hon'u"as . Fla'imi" .utin is in$apable o gi8ing a o"eign( poli$y spee$! in w!i$! !e 'oes not blast 3me"i$an !egemony as t!e "oot o all o 6ussia9s ills . 2!ile 5!inese o i$ials tal= toug! about en'ing t!e 'olla"9s "eign as t!e wo"l'9s "ese"8e $u""en$y7 its lea'e"s also want 3me"i$a to sol8e t!e $u""ent e$onomi$ $"isis an' to ta=e t!e lea' on global wa"ming in t!e p"o$ess. ?t9s not Aust o"eign lea'e"s w!o a"e obsesse' wit! 3me"i$an !egemony. @ast wee=7 in an e0ample o t"ue !a"'s!ip 'uty7 ? taug!t a s!o"t $ou"se in 3me"i$an o"eign poli$y at t!e #a"$elona ?nstitute o" ?nte"national Stu'ies. ,!e stu'ents in my $lass "ep"esente' a t"ue $"oss se$tion o nationalities4 Spania"'s7 &e"mans7 #"its7 /stonian7 5!inese7 Fietnamese7 ?n'ian7 ,!ai7 &!anaian7 )enyan7 ,u"=is!7 #elgian7 1e0i$an7 %i$a"aguan an'7 yes7 e8en 3me"i$ans . ? $annot $laim t!at my stu'ents "ep"esent a s$ienti i$
2!ile t!e Obama a'minist"ation an' t!e 3me"i$an people mig!t be $ontent wit! t!e notion o 3me"i$a as Aust anot!e" $ount"y7 t!is sentiment "aises some un$om o"table Buestions. ,!e"e is t!e a$tual one4 $"oss se$tion o non(3me"i$ans :one o t!em $omplaine' t!at ? 'i' not "ely on 1a"0ism as a st"u$tu"al e0planation o" 3me"i$an o"eign poli$y<. Still7 by an' la"ge t!e stu'ents we"e b"ig!t7 well in o"me' about wo"l' a ai"s an' $autiously optimisti$ about ."esi'ent Obama. ,!at sai'7 a pe"sistent t"en' among my stu'ents was t!ei" $on8i$tion t!at t!e U.S. go8e"nment was t!e wo"l'9s puppetee"7 $ons$iously manipulating e8e"y single e8ent in wo"l' politi$s. -o" e0ample7 many o t!em we"e $on8in$e' t!at &eo"ge 2. #us! o"'e"e' &eo"gian ."esi'ent 1i=!eil Saa=as!8ili to p"e$ipitate last yea"9s wa" wit! 6ussia. ,!e &!anaian stu'ents wante' to =now w!y Obama 8isite' t!ei" $ount"y last wee=. ,!e stan'a"' Hp"omotion o goo' 'emo$"ati$ go8e"nan$eI answe" 'i' not satis y t!em. ,!ey we"e $on8in$e' t!at t!e"e !a' to be some 'eepe"7 potentially siniste" moti8e to t!e w!ole ente"p"ise. Don9t e8en as= w!at t!ey t!oug!t about t!e "easons be!in' t!e wa" in ?"aB. ,o be su"e7 t!e Unite' States is a powe" ul a$to"D t!e go8e"nment is t"ying to in luen$e global e8ents :an' 3me"i$ans a"e not immune to t!ei" own mispe"$eptions<. 3n' goo' so$ial s$ientists s!oul' always sea"$! o" un'e"lying $auses an' not ta=e "!eto"i$ at a$e 8alue. %e8e"t!eless7 t!e belie in an all(powe" ul 3me"i$a !at$!ing $onspi"a$ies le t an' "ig!t "eBuently 'i' not
?"oni$ally7 at t!e moment w!en many 3me"i$ans a"e Buestioning t!e utu"e o U.S. !egemony7 many non(3me"i$ans $ontinue to belie8e t!at t!e U.S. go8e"nment is 'iaboli$ally manipulating e8ents be!in' t!e s$enes. &oing o"wa"'7 t!e pe"sisten$e o anti(3me"i$anism in t!e age o Obama mig!t !a8e not!ing to 'o wit! t!e p"esi'ent7 o" !is "!eto"i$ o" e8en U.S. go8e"nment a$tions. ?t mig!t 7 instea'7 !a8e to 'o wit! t!e $ongeale' !abits o t!oug!t t!at pla$e t!e Unite' States at t!e epi$ente" o all global mo8ings an' s!a=ings . ,!e t"age'y is t!at su$! an e0agge"ate' pe"$eption o 3me"i$an powe" an' pu"pose is o$$u""ing at p"e$isely t!e moment w!en t!e Unite' States will nee' to s$ale ba$= its global ambitions. ?n'ee'7 t!e e0te"nal pe"$eption o U.S. omnip"esen$e will ma=e t!e pu"suit o a mo"e mo'est U.S. o"eign poli$y all t!e mo"e 'i i$ult. ,!e Obama a'minist"ation !as $ons$iously a'opte' a mo"e mo'est postu"e in t!e !opes o imp"o8ing 3me"i$a9s stan'ing ab"oa'. ? t!e "est o t!e wo"l' genuinely belie8es t!at t!e Unite' States $auses e8e"yt!ing7 !owe8e"7 t!en t!e attempt at mo'esty will ine8itably ail .
Aibe wit! t!e a$ts. -o" many o t!ese stu'ents7 e8en appa"ent poli$y mista=es we"e me"ely e0amples o 3me"i$an subte" uge.
33
708 ())shore *a'ancing 1ron%'ine

())shore &a'ancing <i''s US credi&i'i%y and in;i%es cha''enges
0hayer ="
:#"a'ley 3.7 3sso$iate ."o in Dept. o De ense an' St"ategi$ Stu'ies K 1issou"i State U7 H3me"i$an /mpi"e4 3 DebateI7 pg. 24(2*<
ot!e" $ount"ies !a8e to "espe$t t!e inte"ests o t!e Unite' States o" a$e t!e $onseBuen$es. O s!o"e balan$ing in$u"s t!e "is=s o p"ima$y wit!out its bene its. ?t ple'ges t!at t!e Unite' States will 'e en' its inte"ests wit! ai" powe" an' sea powe"7 but not lan' powe". ,!at is $u"ious be$ause we $oul' 'e en' ou" inte"ests wit! lan' powe" but $!oose not to7 suggesting ou" t!"eat to 'e en' is not se"ious7 w!i$! wea=ens ou" $"e'ibility an' in8ites $!allenges to t!e inte"ests o t!e Unite' States. O s!o"e balan$ing in$"eases t!e p"obability o $on li$t o" t!e Unite' States. ?t "aises t!e 'ange" t!at t!e inte"ests o t!e Unite' States will be $!allenge' not only "om oes li=e 5!ina an' ?"an7 but7 pe"8e"sely7 also "om $ount"ies now allie' wit! t!e Unite' States li=e >apan an' ,u"=ey .
3 la"ge pa"t o w!at ma=es p"ima$y su$! a su$$ess is t!at ot!e" $ount"ies =now w!e"e t!e Unite' States stan's7 w!at it will 'e en'7 an' t!at it will be in8ol8e' in 'isputes7 bot! g"eat an' small. 3$$o"'ingly7
34
====Hege *ad==== Hege *ad- 6ar

Hegemony causes g'o&a' war
&ab"iel
.o'<o7 !isto"ian o
mo'e"n wa" a"e7 ,H/ 3&/ O- 2364 ,H/ U%?,/D S,3,/S 5O%-6O%,S ,H/ 2O6@D7
3t t!e beginning o t!e twenty( i"st $entu"y7 only
200!7 p. 173(6 t!e Unite' States !as t!e will to maintain a global o"eign poli$y an' to inte"8ene e8e"yw!e"e it
belie8es ne$essa"y. ,o'ay an' in t!e nea"
utu"e7 t!e Unite' States will ma=e t!e 'e$isions t!at will lea' to wa" o" pea$e7 an' t!e ate o mu$! o t!e wo"l' is la"gely in its !an's. ?t possesses t!e a"ms an' a spe$t"um o milita"y st"ategies all p"e'i$ate' on a t"iump!ant a$ti8ist "ole o" itsel . ?t belie8es t!at its e$onomy $an a o"' inte"8entionism an' t!at t!e 3me"i$an publi$ will suppo"t w!ate8e" a$tions ne$essa"y to set t!e a ai"s o some $ount"y o" "egion on t!e politi$al pat! it 'eems essential. ,!is g"an'iose ambition is bipa"tisan7 an' 'etails notwit!stan'ing7 bot! pa"ties !a8e always s!a"e' a $onsensus on it. ,!e obsession wit! powe" an' t!e $on8i$tion t!at a"mies $an p"o'u$e t!e politi$al out$ome a nationCs lea'e"s 'esi"e is by no means an e0$lusi8ely 3me"i$an illusion. ?t is a notion t!at goes ba$= many $entu"ies an' !as p"o'u$e' t!e main wa"s o mo'e"n times. ,!e "ule o o"$e
#ut unli=e t!e lea'e"s o most /u"opean nations o" >apan7 US lea'e"s !a8e not gaine' insig!t "om t!e $alamities t!at !a8e so sea"e' mo'e"n !isto"y. -olly is s$a"$ely a US monopoly7 but "esistan$e to lea"ning w!en g"a8e
!as been wit! !uman=in' a 8e"y long time7 an' t!e assumptions be!in' it !a8e plague' its !isto"y o" $entu"ies. e""o"s !a8e been $ommitte' is almost p"opo"tionate to t!e "esou"$es a8ailable to "epeat t!em. ,!e &e"mans lea"ne' t!ei" lesson a te" two 'e eats7 t!e >apanese a te" 2o"l' 2a" ??7 an' bot! nations oun' wa"s too e!austing an' politi$ally 'ange"ous. ,!e Unite' States still belie8es t!at i i"epowe" ails to maste" a situation7 t!e solution is to use it mo"e p"e$isely an' mu$! mo"e o it. ?n t!is "ega"' it is e0$eptionalLpast ailu"es !a8e not ma'e it any
2a"s a"e at least as li=ely to'ay as any time o8e" t!e past $entu"y. O g"eat impo"tan$e is t!e en' o So8iet !egemony in /aste"n /u"ope an' 1os$owCs "est"aining t!e p"oli e"ation o nu$lea" te$!nology an' ot!e" means o mass 'est"u$tion !a8e also ma'e la"ge pa"ts o t!e wo"l' a" mo"e 'ange"ous. Dea'ly lo$al wa"s wit! $on8entional weapons in 3 "i$a7 t!e #al=ans7 1i''le /ast7 an' elsew!e"e !a8e multiplie' sin$e t!e 1960s. /u"ope7 espe$ially &e"many7 an' >apan7 a"e a" st"onge" an' mo"e in'epen'ent t!an at any time sin$e 194*7 an' 5!inaCs "api'ly e0pan'ing e$onomy !as gi8en it a 8astly mo"e
wise". in luen$e elsew!e"e. #ut impo"tant "ole in 3sia. ?'eologi$ally7 $ommunismCs 'emise means t!at t!e simpli ie' bipola"ism t!at 2as!ington use' to e0plain t!e wo"l' $ease' a te" 1990 to !a8e any 8alue. 2it! it7 t!e allian$es $"eate' nominally to "esist $ommunism !a8e eit!e" been abolis!e' o" a"e a s!a'ow o t!ei" o"iginal sel8esD t!ey !a8e no "eason o" e0isten$e. ,!e $"isis in t!e %o"t! 3tlanti$ ,"eaty O"gani+ation :%3,O<7 essentially7 "e le$ts t!is 'i usion o all o"ms o powe" an' t!e 'iminution o US !egemony. /$onomi$ally7 t!e $apitalist nations !a8e "esume' t!ei" "i8al"ies7 an' t!ey !a8e be$ome mo"e intense wit! t!e g"owt! o t!ei" e$onomies an' t!e 'e$line in t!e 'olla"Lw!i$! by 2004 was as wea= as it !as been in o8e" i ty yea"s. ,!ese states !a8e a g"eat 'eal in $ommon i'eologi$ally7 but $on$"etely t!ey a"e in$"easingly "i8als. ,!e 8i"tual monopoly o nu$lea" weapons t!at e0iste' about a Bua"te"($entu"y ago !as en'e' wit! p"oli e"ation.J7 2!et!e" it is $alle' a Tmultipola"T wo"l'7 to use -"en$! p"esi'ent >a$Bues 5!i"a$Cs e0p"ession in %o8embe" 20047 in w!i$! /u"ope7 5!ina7 ?n'ia7 an' e8en e8entually Sout! 3me"i$a ollow t!ei" own inte"ests7 o" somet!ing else7 t!e 'i"e$tion is $lea". ,!e"e may o" may not be Ta un'amental "est"u$tu"ing o t!e global o"'e"7T as t!e $!ai"man o t!e 5ent"al ?ntelligen$e 3gen$yCs :5?3Cs< %ational ?ntelligen$e 5oun$il p"es$iently "e le$te' in 3p"il 20037 but t!e $on$lusion was una8oi'able Tt!at we a"e a$ing a mo"e lui' an' $ompli$ate' set o alignments t!an anyt!ing we !a8e seen sin$e t!e o"mation o t!e 3tlanti$ allian$e in 1949.T
,e""o"ism an' t!e global e$onomy !a8e 'e ie' o8e"w!elming US milita"y powe"4 TOu" sma"t bombs a"enCt t!at sma"t.TC 2a"s7 w!et!e" $i8il o" between states7 "emain t!e p"in$ipal :but s$a"$ely t!e only< $!allenge $on "onting !umanity in t!e twenty( i"st $entu"y. /$ologi$al 'isaste"s "elentlessly a e$ting all 'imensions o t!e en8i"onment a"e also insi'ious be$ause o t!e unwillingness o t!e $"u$ial nationsLabo8e all t!e Unite' StatesLto a'opt measu"es essential o" "e8e"sing t!ei" 'amage. ,!e $!allenges a$ing !umanity !a8e ne8e" been so $omple0 an' t!"eatening 7 an' t!e en' o t!e 5ol' 2a"7 alt!oug! one p"e$on'ition o
p"og"ess7 is s$a"$ely "eason o" $ompla$e"iby o" optimism. ,!e p"oblems t!e wo"l' $on "onts a" t"ans$en' t!e $ommunist($apitalist tensions7 many o w!i$! we"e mainly symptoms o t!e a" g"eate" intelle$tual7 politi$al7 an' e$onomi$ p"oblems t!at plague' t!e wo"l' be o"e 1917Lan' still e0ist. 2!ate8e" t!e o"iginal intention7
US inte"8entions $an lea' to open(en'e' $ommitments in bot!
'u"ation an' e o"t.
,!ey may last a s!o"t time7 an' usually 'o7 but un o"eseen e8ents $an $ause t!e Unite' States to spen' a" mo"e "esou"$es t!an it o"iginally anti$ipate'7 $ausing it in t!e name o its $"e'ibility7
S!oul' t!e Unite' States $on "ont e8en some o t!e o"ty o" mo"e nations t!at now !a8e te""o"ist netwo"=s7 t!en it will in one manne" o" anot!e" inte"8ene e8e"yw!e"e7 but espe$ially in 3 "i$a an' t!e 1i''le /ast. ,!e $onseBuen$es o su$! $ommitments will be unp"e'i$table. ,!e Unite' States !as mo"e
o" some ot!e" 'o$t"ine7 to get into 'isast"ous situations t!at in t!e en' 'e eat t!e Unite' States. Fietnam is t!e lea'ing e0ample o t!is ten'en$y7 but ?"aB7 !owe8e" 'i e"ent in 'eg"ee7 is t!e same in =in'. 'ete"mine' an' p"obably mo"e nume"ous enemies to'ay t!an at any time7 an' many o t!ose w!o !ate it a"e "ea'y an' able to in li$t 'est"u$tion on its s!o"es. ?ts inte"8entions o ten t"iump!e' in t!e pu"ely milita"y sense7 w!i$! is
. ?ts 8i"tually instin$ti8e a$ti8ist mentality !as $ause' it to get into situations w!e"e it o ten !a' no inte"ests7 mu$! less 'u"able solutions to a nationCs p"oblems7 "epeate'ly $"eating 'isaste"s an' en'u"ing enmities. ,!e Unite' States !as powe" wit!out wis'om an' $annot7 'espite its "epeate' e0pe"ien$es7 "e$ogni+e t!e limits o its ult"asop!isti$ate' milita"y te$!nology. ,!e "esult !as been olly an' !at"e'7 w!i$! is a "e$ipe o" 'isaste"s. Septembe" 11 $on i"me' t!at7 an' wa" !as $ome to its s!o"es. ,!at t!e Unite' States en' its sel (appointe' global mission o "egulating all p"oblems7 w!e"e8e"7 w!ene8e"7 o" !owe8e" it wis!es to 'o so7 is an essential p"e$on'ition o stemming7 mu$! less "e8e"sing7 t!e a$$umulate' 'ete"io"ation o wo"l' a ai"s an' wa"s. 2e s!oul' not igno"e t!e $ountless et!i$al an' ot!e" "easons it !as no mo"e "ig!t o" $apa$ity to 'o so t!an any state o8e" t!e past
all t!e .entagon wo""ies about7 but in all too many $ases t!ey !a8e been politi$al ailu"es an' e8entually le' to g"eate" US milita"y an' politi$al in8ol8ement $entu"y7 w!ate8e" Austi i$ations t!ey e8o=e'. ,!e p"oblems7 as t!e !isto"y o t!e past $entu"y s!ows7 a"e mu$! g"eate" t!an t!e US "ole in t!e wo"l'4 but at t!e p"esent time its a$tions a"e 'e$isi8e7 an' w!et!e" t!e"e is 2a" o" pea$e will be 'e$i'e' a" mo"e o ten in 2as!ington t!an any ot!e" pla$e. Ultimately7 t!e"e will not be pea$e in t!e wo"l' unless all nations "elinBuis! wa" as an inst"ument o poli$y7 not only be$ause o et!i$al o" mo"al "easoning
3 p"e$on'ition o pea$e is o" nations not to attempt to impose t!ei" 8isions on ot!e"s7 a'Au'i$ate t!ei" 'i e"en$es7 an' ne8e" to assume t!at t!ei" nee' o" t!e e$onomi$ o" st"ategi$ "esou"$es o anot!e" $ount"y wa""ants inte" e"en$e o any so"t in its inte"nal a ai"s. #ut Septembe" 11 p"o8e' t!at a te" a !al ($entu"y o inte"8entions t!e Unite' States !as manage' to p"o8o=e in$"easing !at"e'. ?t !as aile' abysmally to b"ing pea$e an' se$u"ity to t!e wo"l'. ?ts "ole as a "ogue supe"powe" an' its p"omis$uous7 $yni$al inte"8entionism !as been spe$ta$ula"ly unsu$$ess ul7 e8en on its own te"ms. ?t
but be$ause wa"s !a8e be$ome 'ea'lie" an' mo"e 'est"u$ti8e o so$ial institutions. is sBuan'e"ing 8ast e$onomi$ "esou"$es7 an' it !as now en'ange"e' t!e p!ysi$al se$u"ity o 3me"i$ans at !ome. ,o en' t!e 'amage t!e Unite' States $auses ab"oa' is also to ul ill t!e "esponsibilities t!at US politi$ians !a8e to t!ei" own people. #ut t!e"e is not t!e slig!test sign at t!is point t!at 8ote"s will $all t!em to a$$ount7 an' neit!e" t!e 31e"i$an population no" its politi$al lea'e"s a"e li=ely to ag"ee to 6i$! a"("ea$!ing $!anges in o"eign poli$y. ,!e issues a"e a" too g"a8e to wait o" US attitu'es an' its politi$al p"o$ess to be t"ans o"me'.
,!e wo"l' will be sa e" to t!e e0tent t!at US allian$es a"e 'issol8e' an' it is
isolate'7 an' t!at is !appening
o" many "easons7 "anging "om t!e unilate"alism7 !ub"is7 an' p"eempto"y style o t!e #us! a'minist"ation to t!e a$t t!at sin$e t!e 'emise o $ommunism7 t!e wo"l'Cs politi$al alignments !a8e $!ange' '"amati$ally. 5ommunism an' as$ism we"e bot! out$omes o t!e atal e""o"s in t!e inte"national o"'e" an' a ai"s o states t!at 2o"l' 2a" ? spawne'. ?n pa"t7 t!e So8iet systemCs 'isinteg"ation was t!e "esult o t!e a$t it was t!e abe""ant $onseBuen$e o a 'est"u$ti8e an' abno"mal wa"7 117<Dt at least as impo"tant was its lea'e"sC loss o $on i'en$e in so$ialism. 3n' sui$i'al 1uslims a"e7 to a g"eat e0tent7 t!e out$ome o a !al ($entu"y o US inte" e"en$e in t!e 1i''le /ast an' ?slami$ wo"l'7 w!i$! "a'i$ali+e' so many young men an' women "ea'y to 'ie o" ait!. >ust as t!e wa"s o 1914(1918 an' 1939(194* $"eate' #ols!e8i=s7 t!e "epeate' g"a8e e""o"s o t!e Unite' States7 !owe8e" 'i e"ent t!e $onte0t o" times7 !a8e p"o'u$e' t!ei" own abno"mal7 negati8e "ea$tions. ,!e twenty( i"st $entu"y !as begun 8e"y ba'ly be$ause t!e Unite' States $ontinues wit! its agg"essi8e poli$ies. ,!ey a"e a" mo"e 'ange"ous t!an t!ose o t!e twentiet! $entu"y. ,!e 'est"u$ti8e potential o weapon"y !as in$"ease' e0ponentially7 an' many mo"e people an' nations !a8e a$$ess to it. 2!at woul' on$e !a8e been $onsi'e"e' "elati8ely mino" o"eign poli$y p"oblems now !a8e potentially a" g"eate" $onseBuen$es. ?t all augu"s 8e"y ba'ly. ,!e wo"l' !as "ea$!e' t!e most 'ange"ous point in "e$ent7 o" pe"!aps all o 7 !isto"y. ,!e"e a"e t!"eats o wa"
M5ontinue'( wit! no te0te' "emo8e'N[

an' instability unli=e anyt!ing t!at p"e8aile' w!en a So8iet(le' blo$ e0iste'. /8en i t!e Unite' States abstains "om inte" e"en$e an' tailo"s its a$tions to it t!is t"ouble' "eality7 t!e"e will be se"ious p"oblems t!"oug!out mu$! o t!e wo"l'. ?nte"ne$ine $i8il $on li$ts will $ontinue7 as well as wa"s between nations a"me' wit! an in$"easing 8a"iety o mu$! mo"e 'est"u$ti8e weapons a8ailable "om outsi'e powe"s7 o w!i$! t!e Unite' States "emains7 by a"7 t!e most impo"tant sou"$e. 1any o t!ese $on li$ts !a8e in'epen'ent "oots7 an' bot! p"in$iples an' e0pe"ien$es Austi y t!e Unite' States staying out o t!em an' lea8ing t!e wo"l' alone. #ot! t!e 3me"i$an people an' t!ose
3*

in8ol8e' 'i"e$tly will be a" bette" o wit!out o"eign inte" e"en$e7 w!ate8e" nation attempts it.
US lea'e"s a"e not $"eating pea$e o" se$u"ity at !ome o" stability ab"oa'. ,!e "e8e"se is t!e $ase4 its inte"8entions !a8e been $ounte"p"o'u$ti8e7 an' its o"eign poli$y is a 'isaste". 3me"i$ans an' t!ose people w!o a"e t!e
obAe$ts o su$$essi8e a'minist"ationsC e o"ts woul' be a" bette" o i t!e Unite' States 'i' not!ing7 $lose' its bases o8e"seas an' wit!'"ew its leets e8e"yw!e"e7 an' allowe' t!e "est o wo"l' to in' its own way. 5ommunism is 'ea'7 an' /u"ope an' >apan a"e powe" ul an' bot! $an an' will ta=e $a"e o t!ei" own inte"ests. ,!e Unite' States must a'apt to t!ese a$ts. #ut i it $ontinues as it !as o8e" t!e past !al ($entu"y7 attempting to satis y its
all states t!at !a8e gone to wa" o8e" t!e past $entu"ies !a8e not a$!ie8e' t!e obAe$ti8es o" w!i$! t!ey sa$"i i$e' so mu$! bloo'7 passion7 an' "esou"$es. ,!ey !a8e only p"o'u$e' en'less mise"y an' up!ea8als o e8e"y =in'.
8ainglo"ious but i""ational ambition to "un t!e wo"l'7 t!en t!e"e will be e8en 'eepe" $"ises an' it will in li$t wa"s an' tu"moil on many nations as well as on its own people. 3n' it will ail yet again7 o"
36
Hege *ad- 6ar

Hegemony causes war : imperia' aspira%ions produce geopo'i%ica' &ac<'ash
?ayne> 03 X 3sso$iate ."o esso" in t!e #us! S$!ool o
&o8e"nment an' .ubli$ Se"8i$e at ,e0as 3S1 Uni8e"sity an' 6esea"$! -ellow wit! t!e 5ente" on .ea$e an' @ibe"ty at ,!e ?n'epen'ent ?nstitute7 :5!"istop!e"7 ,!e 3me"i$an 5onse"8ati8e T,!e 5ost o /mpi"eT O$tobe" 3 "'7 !ttp4;;www.am$onmag.$om;a"ti$le;2003;o$t;06;00007;<
.e"!aps t!e p"oponents o 3me"i$a9s impe"ial ambitions a"e "ig!t an' t!e U.S. will not su e" t!e same ate as p"e8ious !egemoni$ powe"s. Don9t bet on it. ,!e 8e"y a$t o 3me"i$a9s o8e"w!elming powe" is boun' to p"o'u$e a geopoliti$al ba$=las! Lw!i$! is w!y it9s only a s!o"t step "om t!e $eleb"ation o impe"ial glo"y to t!e "e$essional o impe"ial powe". ?n'ee'7 on its p"esent $ou"se7 t!e Unite' States seems ate' to su$$umb to t!e H!egemon9s temptation.I Hegemons !a8e lots o powe" an' be$ause t!e"e is no $ounte"8ailing o"$e to stop t!em7 t!ey a"e tempte' to use it "epeate'ly7 an' t!e"eby o8e""ea$! t!emsel8es. O8e" time7 t!is !egemoni$ mus$le( le0ing !as a p"i$e. ,!e $umulati8e $osts o ig!ting Lo" p"epa"ing to ig!tLgue"illa wa"s in ?"aB an' 3 g!anistan7 asymmet"i$ $on li$ts against te""o"ists :in t!e .!ilippines7 possibly in a aile' .a=istan7 an' elsew!e"e<7 "egional powe"s :?"an7 %o"t! )o"ea<7 an' "ising g"eat powe"s li=e 5!ina $oul' e"o'e 3me"i$a9s "elati8e powe"Lespe$ially i t!e U.S. su e"s setba$=s in utu"e $on li$ts7 o" e0ample in a wa" wit! 5!ina o8e" ,aiwan.
0he pursui% o) primacy causes g'o&a' sa;age wars )or peace : i% ma<es con)'ic% ine;i%a&'e.
?ayne> " :3sso$iate ."o esso" in t!e #us! S$!ool o
?n t!is $!apte"7 ? a"gue t!at &o8e"nment an' .ubli$ Se"8i$e at ,e0as 3S1 Uni8e"sity an' 6esea"$! -ellow wit! t!e 5ente" on .ea$e an' @ibe"ty at ,!e ?n'epen'ent ?nstitute7 :5!"istop!e"7 T,!e 5ase 3gainst t!e 3me"i$an /mpi"e7T 3me"i$an /mpi"e4 3 Debate7 .ublis!e' by 6outle'ge7 ?S#% 041*9*20347 p. *4(**<
p"ima$y an' empi"e is a st"ategy t!at will lea' to ba' $onseBuen$es o" t!e Unite' States. 6at!e" t!an b"inging t!e Unite' States pea$e an' se$u"ity7 t!e pu"suit o p"ima$y an' empi"e will "esult in a geopoliti$al ba$=las! against t!e Unite' States. ?t al"ea'y !as. ,!e 9;11 atta$=s we"e a 8iolent "ea$tion against 3me"i$a9s p"ima$yLan' spe$i i$ally against its impe"ial ambitions in t!e 1i''le /ast. Simila"ly7 t!e Buagmi"e in ?"aB also is a 'i"e$t $onseBuen$e o U.S. impe"ial aspi"ations. 3n' it will not en' t!e"e. #e$ause it is p"emise' on t!e belie t!at t!e Unite' States must emba"= on asse"ti8e poli$ies to b"ing about "egime $!ange by imposing 'emo$"a$y ab"oa'7 t!e pu"suit o p"ima$y an' empi"e will '"ag t!e Unite' States into ot!e"wise a8oi'able wa"sLw!at one p"oponent o t!e st"ategy !as te"me' Tsa8age wa"s o" pea$e.T @oo=ing a!ea'7 i t!e Unite' States $ontinues to ollow its $u""ent st"ategy o p"ima$y an' empi"e7 it almost $e"tainly will in' Men' page *4N itsel on a $ollision $ou"se wit! ?"an :an' possibly %o"t! )o"ea an' Sy"ia< an'Lmo"e impo"tantlyL5!ina.
Heg ma<es mi'i%ary aggression ine;i%a&'e

?ayne 0! 3sso$iate ."o esso" at t!e #us! S$!ool o
M5!"istop!e" H,!e .ea$e o ?llusionsI :p. 1*2(1*3<N ,!e"e is anot!e" "oa' to U.S. o8e"e0tension4 &o8e"nment an' .ubli$ Se"8i$e7 ,e0as 3S1 Uni8e"sity
t!e Unite' States $oul' su$$umb(an'7 a"guably7 !as(to t!e T!egemonCs temptation.T ,!e !egemonCs temptation is $ause' by t!e imbalan$e o powe" in its a8o". 5ons$ious bot! o its o8e"w!elming milita"y supe"io"ity an' o t!e a$t t!at no ot!e" g"eat powe"s a"e $apable o "est"aining its ambitions7 a !egemon easily is lu"e' into o8e"e0pansion. 2!en it $omes to !a"' powe"7 !egemons !a8e it7 an' sel'om $an "esist launting it(espe$ially w!en t!e $osts an' "is=s o 'oing so appea" to be low.72 ,!us7 we s!oul' e0pe$t a unipola" !egemon to initiate many wa"s an' to use its milita"y powe" p"omis$uously. -"om t!is pe"spe$ti8e7 it is not su"p"ising t!at sin$e t!e $ol' wa" t!e Unite' States !as(in a''ition to 3 g!anistan an' ?"aB(inte"8ene' in su$! pe"ip!e"al pla$es as Somalia7 Haiti7 #osnia7 an' )oso8o w!ile simultaneously e0ten'ing its milita"y "ea$! into 5ent"al 3sia7 t!e 5au$asus "egion7 an' /ast 5ent"al /u"ope :all a"eas ne8e" p"e8iously 8iewe' as ones w!e"e t!e Unite' States !a' impo"tant inte"ests<. ,!e 8e"y natu"e o !egemoni$ powe" p"e'isposes 'ominant powe"s to o8e"e0pan' in o"'e" to maintain t!ei" lea'ing position in t!e inte"national system. 3s &ilpin obse"8es7 a !egemon ea"ns its p"estige(ot!e"sC pe"$eptions o t!e e i$a$y o
its !a"' powe" $apabilities(by using milita"y powe" su$$ess ully to impose its will on ot!e"s. 2!en a !egemon wiel's its milita"y powe" $onspi$uously7 ot!e"s a"e put on noti$e t!at t!e p"u'ent $ou"se o a$tion is to a$$ommo'ate
7 !egemons belie8e t!at t!e "eBuent use o o"$e !as a potent 'ete""ent7 o" 'issuasi8e7 e e$t on ot!e" states. 5lea"ly7 U.S. poli$yma=e"s belie8e t!is to be t!e $ase. ,!us7 a te" e0tolling t!e 'isplays o 3me"i$aCs milita"y 8i"tuosity in 3 g!anistan an' ?"aB7 Se$"eta"y o De ense Donal'
its 'ominan$e "at!e" t!an $!allenging it. ?n e e$t 6ums el' 'e$la"e' t!at t!ose wa"s s!oul' be a wa"ning to ot!e" states4 T? you put you"sel in t!e s!oes o a $ount"y t!at mig!t 'e$i'e t!eyC' li=e to ma=e mis$!ie 7 t!ey !a8e a 8e"y "e$ent7 8i8i' e0ample o t!e a$t t!at t!e
7 a pa"a'o0 to t!e !egemonCs temptation4 o8e"e0pansion lea's to Timpe"ial o8e"st"et$!T an' $ounte"!egemoni$ balan$ing(t!e $ombine' e e$t o w!i$! is !egemoni$ 'e$line. St"ategi$ally7 !egemons usually en' up biting o mo"e t!an t!ey $an $!ew.
Unite' States !as t!e ability to 'eal wit!t!is.T74 ,!e"e is7 o $ou"se
37
Hege *ad- China 6ar

US primacy ensures con)'ic% wi%h China
?ayne 0" Fisiting -ellow in -o"eign .oli$y Stu'ies at t!e 5ato ?nstitute :5!"istop!e" H3me"i$an /mpi"e4 3 DebateI :p 7*<N So w!at s!oul' t!e Unite' States 'o about 5!inaJ ? t!e Unite' States pe"sists wit! its st"ategy o p"ima$y7 t!e o''s o a Sino(3me"i$an $on li$t a"e !ig!. 5u""ent 3me"i$an st"ategy $ommits t!e Unite' States to maintaining t!e geopoliti$al status Buo in /ast 3sia7 a status Buo t!at "e le$ts 3me"i$an p"ima$y. ,!e Unite' StatesC 'esi"e to p"ese"8e t!e status Buo7 !owe8e"7 $las!es wit! t!e ambitions o a "ising 5!ina. 3s a "ising g"eat powe"7 5!ina !as its own i'eas about !ow /ast 3siaCs politi$al an' se$u"ity o"'e" s!oul' be o"ga ni+e'. Unless U.S. an' 5!inese inte"ests $an be a$$ommo'ate'7 t!e potential o" utu"e tensionLo" wo"seLe0ists. 1o"eo8e"7 as ? al"ea'y !a8e 'emonst"ate'7 t!e 8e"y a$t o 3me"i$an p"ima$y is boun' to p"o'u$e a geopoliti$al ba$=las!Lwit! 5!ina in t!e 8angua"'Lin t!e o"m o $ounte"(!egemoni$ balan$ing. %e8e"t!eless7 t!e Unite'
States $annot be $ompletely in'i e"ent to 5!inaCs "ise.
3ncroaching in%o ChinaDs sphere o) in)'uence 'eads nuc'ear con)'agra%ion

3'and 0?8an /lan' ( Di"e$to" o t!e 5ente" on .ea$e S @ibe"ty at ,!e ?n'epen'ent ?nstitute7 -o"me" Di"e$to" o De ense .oli$y Stu'ies at t!e 5ato ?nstitute ( 4;11;0* :H5oe0isting wit! a 6ising 5!ina7I !ttp4;;www.in'epen'ent.o"g;news"oom;a"ti$le.aspJi'Q1494< 3lt!oug! 5!ina is an auto$"ati$ state7 it still !as legitimate se$u"ity inte"ests. ,!e Unite' States woul' be sma"t to s!ow some empat!y wit! t!ose $on$e"ns. ?n "e$ent yea"s7 as t!e Unite' States !as be$ome ala"me' at 5!ina9s e0pan'e' milita"y spen'ing7 t!e 5!inese !a8e also be$ome ala"me' at la"ge in$"eases in t!e U.S. 'e ense bu'get an' U.S. atta$=s on t!e so8e"eign nations o Se"bia an' ?"aB. 1any 5!inese see t!e t!"eat o an e0pan'ing U.S. empi"e t!at aims at en$i"$ling 5!ina an' p"e8enting its legitimate "ise to g"eat powe" status. ,o lessen su$! pe"$eptions an' "e'u$e t!e $!an$e o $on li$t between t!e two nu$lea"(a"me' nations7 t!e Unite' States s!oul' "et"a$t its o"wa"' milita"y an' allian$e postu"e in 3sia7 in$lu'ing "epu'iating any implie' $ommitment to 'e en' ,aiwan. 2it! la"ge bo'ies o wate" as moats an' t!e most o"mi'able nu$lea" a"senal in t!e wo"l'7 t!e Unite' States !a"'ly
. ? t!e Unite' States $ontinues to maintain an out'ate' 5ol' 2a"(style empi"e7 it is boun' to $ome into nee'less $on li$t wit! ot!e" powe"s7 espe$ially 5!ina . ?nstea' o emulating t!e poli$ies o p"e(2o"l' 2a" ? #"itain towa"' &e"many7 t!e Unite' States s!oul' ta=e a page "om anot!e" $!apte" in #"itis! !isto"y. ?n t!e late 1800s7 alt!oug! not wit!out tension7 t!e #"itis! pea$e ully allowe' t!e le'ging Unite' States to "ise as a g"eat powe"7 =nowing bot! $ount"ies we"e p"ote$te' by t!e e0panse o t!e 3tlanti$ O$ean t!at sepa"ate' t!em. ,a=ing a'8antage o t!at same =in' sepa"ation by a maAo" o$ean7 t!e Unite' States $oul' also sa ely allow 5!ina to obtain "espe$t as a g"eat powe"7 wi $t! a sp!e"e o in luen$e to mat$!. ? 5!ina went beyon' obtaining a "easonable sp!e"e o in luen$e into an ?mpe"ial >apanese(style e0pansion7 t!e Unite' States $oul' 8e"y well nee' to mount a $!allenge. Howe8e"7 at p"esent7 little e8i'en$e e0ists o 5!inese intent o" su$! e0pansion 7 w!i$! woul' "un $ounte" to "e$ent 5!inese !isto"y. ,!e"e o"e7 a U.S. poli$y o $oe0isten$e7 "at!e" t!an neo($ontainment7 mig!t a8oi' a utu"e $atast"op!i$ wa" o" e8en a anu$lea" $on lag"ation.
nee's a se$u"ity pe"imete" t!at st"et$!es a$"oss t!e enti"e .a$i i$ O$ean to p"ote$t it "om 5!ina
38
----34%. China 6ar

US Hegemony causes 6ar wi%h China
5!"istop!e" 7 ."o ?ntl 6elations at ,e0as 3S17 ,!e .ea$e o ?llusions7 p. 187 ?n a''ition
?ayne
200!
it woul' a8oi' implementing an o8e"tly $on "ontational poli$y towa"' 5!ina. ?t is !a"'ly su"p"ising :in'ee'7 it pa"allels in many ways 3me"i$a9s own 5!inaLt!e la"gest an' potentially most powe" ul state in 3siaLis see=ing a mo"e asse"ti8e politi$al7 milita"y7 an' e$onomi$ "ole in t!e "egion an' e8en $!allenging 3me"i$a9s p"esent 'ominan$e in /ast 3sia. ,!is poses no 'i"e$t t!"eat to U.S. se$u"ity 7 !owe8e". Doubtless7 >apan7 in'ia7 6ussia :an' pe"!aps )o"ea< may be wo""ie' about t!e impli$ations o 5!ina9s "api' as$en'an$e. #ut t!is is p"e$isely t!e point o o s!o"e balan$ing4 be$ause 5!ina potentially poses a 'i"e$t t!"eat to t!emLnot to t!e Unite' StatesLt!ey s!oul' bea" t!e "esponsibility o balan$ing against 5!inese powe" . ,!e Unite' States s!oul' a8oi' poli$ies t!at in lame Sino(
eme"gen$e as a g"eat powe"< t!at 3"ne"i$an "elations. ,!at means a !an'(o attitu'e wit! "espe$t to 5!ina9s inte"nal poli$ies. ,!e Unite' States la$=s t!e powe" to t"ans o"m 5!ina into a libe"al 'emo$"a$y. ,"ying to 'o so se"8es only to poison "elations wit! #eiAing. -inally7 2as!ington s!oul' 'e$la"e uneBui8o$ally t!at t!e ,aiwan issue is a pu"ely inte"nal 5!inese matte". ,aiwan9s un"esol8e' status is t!e lega$y o a $i8il wa" t!at en'e' on t!e mainlan' in 1949. ?t is wo"t! "e$alling t!at be o"e t!e outb"ea= o t!e )o"ean 2a"7 Se$"eta"y o State Dean 3$!eson "e$ommen'e' t!at t!e Unite' States e0t"i$ate itsel "om t!e un inis!e' business o t!e 5!inese $i8il wa" an' lea8e ,aiwan to its ate. 1o"e t!an a
going to wa" to 'e en' ,aiwan9s sel style' in'epen'en$e ma=es sense only as a p"ete0t o" ig!ting a p"e8enti8e wa" wit! 5!ina. ,!is is somet!ing t!e Unite' States s!oul' a8oi'. ,!e Unite' States s!oul' lea8e t!e $ontainment o 5!ina to t!e eme"ging multipola" powe" balan$e in 3sia .
!al ($entu"y late"7 t!e Unite' States inally s!oul' 'o so. -o" t!e Unite' States7
39
Hege *ad- 9ussia 6ar

Hegemony spar<s US-9ussian nuc'ear war
Choms<y> 2003 :%oam. ?nstitute ."o esso" eme"itus o
its !isto"i$ally uniBue milita"y 'ominan$e. H linguisti$s an' p!ilosop!y at 1?,. H-aile' States.I .ages 14(16< ,!e p"obability o Hapo$alypse soonI $annot be "ealisti$ally estimate'7 but it is su"ely too !ig! o" any sane pe"son to $ontemplate wit! eBuanimity. 2!ile spe$ulation is pointless7 "ea$tion to t!e Hsta"= an' '"ea' ul an' ines$apableI $!oi$e /instein an' 6ussell 'es$"ibe' 'e initely is not. On t!e $ont"a"y7 "ea$tion is u"gent7 pa"ti$ula"ly in t!e Unite' States7 be$ause o 2as!ington9s p"ima"y "ole in a$$ele"ating t!e "a$e to 'est"u$tion by e0ten'ing
,!e $!an$es o an a$$i'ental7 mista=en o" unaut!o"i+e' nu$lea" atta$= mig!t be in$"easing7I wa"ns o"me" senato" 2e a"e "unning an unne$essa"y "is= o an 3"mage''on o ou" own ma=ing7I %unn obse"8es7 as a "esult o poli$y $!oi$es t!at lea8e H3me"i$a9s su"8i8alI 'epen'ent on Ht!e a$$u"a$y o 6ussia9s wa"ning systems an' its $omman' an' $ont"ol.I %unn is "e e""ing to t!e s!a"p e0pansion o US milita"y p"og"ams7 w!i$! tilt t!e st"ategi$ balan$e in ways t!at ma=e H6ussia mo"e li=ely to laun$! upon wa"ning o an atta$=7 wit!out waiting to see i t!e wa"ning is a$$u"ate.I ,!e t!"eat is en!an$e' by t!e a$t t!at Ht!e 6ussian ea"ly wa"ning system is in se"ious 'is"epai" an' mo"e li=ely to gi8e a alse wa"ning o in$oming missiles. US "elian$e on Ht!e !ig!(ale"t7 !ai"(t"igge" nu$lea" postu"e[ allows missiles to be laun$!e' wit!in minutes7I o"$ing Hou" lea'e"s to 'e$i'e almost instantly w!et!e" to laun$! nu$lea" weapons on$e t!ey !a8e wa"ning o an atta$=7 "obbing t!em o t!e time t!ey may nee' to gat!e" 'ata7 e0$!ange in o"mation7 gain pe"spe$ti8e7 'is$o8e" an e""o" an' a8oi' a $atast"op!i$ mista=e.I ,!e "is= e0ten's beyon' 6ussia X an' also 5!ina i it pu"sues t!e same $ou"se. St"ategi$ #"u$e #lai" obse"8es t!at Ht!e ea"ly wa"ning an' $ont"ol p"oblems plaguing .a=istan7 ?n'ia an' ot!e" nu$lea" p"oli e"ato"s a"e e8en mo"e a$ute.I 3not!e" se"ious $on$e"n7 'is$usse' in te$!ni$al lite"atu"e well be o"e 9;117 is t!at nu$lea" weapons may soone" o" late" all into t!e !an's o te""o"ist g"oups7 w!o mig!t use t!ese an' ot!e" weapons o mass 'est"u$tion wit! let!al e e$t. ,!ose p"ospe$ts a"e being a'8an$e' by #us! a'minist"ation planne"s7 w!o 'o not $onsi'e" te""o"ism a !ig! p"io"ity7 as t!ey "egula"ly 'emonst"ate. ,!ei" agg"essi8e milita"ism !as not only le' 6ussia to e0pan' signi i$antly its o ensi8e $apa$ities7 in$lu'ing mo"e let!al nu$lea" weapons an' 'eli8e"y systems7 but is also in'u$ing t!e 6ussian milita"y to t"ans e" nu$lea" weapons $onstantly a$"oss 6ussia9s 8ast te""ito"y to $ounte" mounting US t!"eats. 2as!ington planne"s a"e su"ely awa"e t!at 5!e$!en "ebels7 w!o !a' al"ea'y stolen "a'ioa$ti8e mate"ials "om nu$lea" waste plants an' powe" stations7 !a8e been $asing Ht!e "ailway system an' spe$ial t"ains 'esigne' o" s!ipping nu$lea" weapons a$"oss 6ussia.I #lai" wa"ns t!at Ht!is pe"petual motion Mwit!in 6ussiaN $"eates a se"ious 8ulne"ability7 be$ause t"anspo"tation is t!e 3$!illes9 !eel o nu$lea" weapons se$u"ity7I "an=ing in 'ange" "ig!t alongsi'e maintaining st"ategi$ nu$lea" o"$es on !ai"(t"igge" ale"t. He estimates t!at e8e"y 'ay Hmany !un'"e's o 6ussian nu$lea" weapons a"e mo8ing a"oun' t!e $ount"ysi'e.I ,!e t o one nu$lea" bomb H$oul' spell e8entual 'isaste" o" an 3me"i$an $ity 7 Mbut t!isN is not t!e wo"st($ase s$ena"io stemming "om nu$lea" gamesmans!ip.I 1o"e ominously 7 Ht!e sei+u"e o a "ea'y(to( i"e st"ategi$ long "ange nu$lea" missile o" a g"oup o missiles $apable o 'eli8e"ing bombs to ta"gets t!ousan's o miles away $oul' be apo$alypti$ o" enti"e nations.I 3not!e" maAo" t!"eat is t!at te""o"ist !a$=e"s mig!t b"ea= into milita"y $ommuni$ation netwo"=s an' t"ansmit laun$! o"'e"s o" missiles a"me' wit! !un'"e's o nu$lea" wa"!ea's X no antasy7 as t!e .entagon lea"ne' a ew yea"s ago w!en se"ious 'e e$ts we"e 'is$o8e"e' in its sa egua"'s7 "eBui"ing new inst"u$tions o" ,"i'ent subma"ine laun$! $"ews. Systems in ot!e" $ount"ies a"e mu$! less "eliable. 3ll o t!is $onstitutes Han a$$i'ent waiting to !appen7I #lai" w"itesD an a$$i'ent t!at $oul' be apo$alypti$.
Sam %unn7 w!o !as playe' a lea'ing "ole in e o"ts to "e'u$e t!e t!"eat o nu$lea" wa". H
9ussian resurgence causes g'o&a' ins%a&i'i%y and 65D use

Cohen> .!.D7 Senio" .oli$y 3nalyst7 He"itage -oun'ation 6epo"ts7 1(2*-$" 1u$! is at sta=e in /u"asia o" t!e U.S. an' its allies. 3ttempts to "esto"e its empi"e will 'oom 6ussiaCs t"ansition to a 'emo$"a$y an' "ee( ma"=et e$onomy. ,!e ongoing wa" in 5!e$!nya alone !as $ost 6ussia E 6 billion to 'ate :eBual to 6ussiaCs ?1- an' 2o"l' #an= loans o" 199*<. 1o"eo8e"7 it !as e0t"a$te' a t"emen'ous p"i$e "om 6ussian so$iety. ,!e wa"s w!i$! woul' be "eBui"e' to "esto"e t!e 6ussian empi"e woul' p"o8e mu$! mo"e $ostly not Aust o" 6ussia an' t!e "egion7 but o" pea$e7 wo"l' stability7 an' se$u"ity. 3s t!e o"me" So8iet a"senals a"e sp"ea' t!"oug!out t!e %?S7 t!ese $on li$ts may es$alate to in$lu'e t!e use o weapons o mass 'est"u$tion. S$ena"ios in$lu'ing unaut!o"i+e' missile laun$!es a"e espe$ially t!"eatening. 1o"eo8e"7 i su$$ess ul7 a "e$onstitute' 6ussian empi"e woul' be$ome a maAo" 'estabili+ing in luen$e bot! in /u"asia an' t!"oug!out t!e wo"l'. ?t woul' en'ange" not only 6ussiaCs neig!bo"s7 but also t!e U.S. an' its allies in /u"ope
3"iel an' t!e 1i''le /ast. 3n'7 o $ou"se7 a neo(impe"ialist 6ussia $oul' impe"il t!e oil "ese"8es o t!e .e"sian &ul . n1* Fla'imi" O!i"ino8s=y7 mout!pie$e o" t!e most i""e'entist elements in t!e 6ussian se$u"ity an' milita"y
Domination o t!e 5au$asus woul' b"ing 6ussia $lose" to t!e #al=ans7 t!e 1e'ite""anean Sea7 an' t!e 1i''le /ast. 6ussian impe"ialists7 su$! as "a'i$al nationalist Fla'imi" O!i"ino8s=y7 !a8e "esu""e$te' t!e ol' '"eam o obtaining a wa"m po"t on t!e ?n'ian O$ean. ? 6ussia su$$ee's in establis!ing its 'omination in t!e sout!7 t!e t!"eat to U="aine7 ,u"=ey7 ?"an7 an' 3 ganistan will in$"ease. ,!e in'epen'en$e o p"o(2este"n &eo"gia an' 3+e"baiAan al"ea'y !as been un'e"mine' by p"essu"es "om
se"8i$es7 $onstantly a"ti$ulates t!is t!"eat. t!e 6ussian a"me' o"$es an' $o8e"t a$tions by t!e intelligen$e an' se$u"ity se"8i$es7 in a''ition to w!i$! 6ussian !egemony woul' ma=e 2este"n politi$al an' e$onomi$ e o"ts to sta8e o ?slami$ militan$y mo"e 'i i$ult. /u"asian oil "esou"$es a"e pi8otal to e$onomi$ 'e8elopment in t!e ea"ly 21st $entu"y. ,!e supply o 1i''le /aste"n oil woul' be$ome p"e$a"ious i Sau'i 3"abia be$ame unstable7 o" i ?"an o" ?"aB p"o8o=e' anot!e" milita"y $on li$t in t!e a"ea. /u"asian oil is also =ey to t!e e$onomi$ 'e8elopment o t!e sout!e"n %?S. Only wit! oil "e8enues $an t!ese $ount"ies se8e" t!ei" 'epen'en$e on 1os$ow an' 'e8elop mo'em ma"=et e$onomies an' "ee so$ieties. 1o"eo8e"7 i t!ese 8ast oil "ese"8es we"e tappe' an' 'e8elope'7 tens o t!ousan's o U.S. an' 2este"n Aobs woul' be $"eate'. ,!e U.S. s!oul' ensu"e "ee a$$ess to t!ese "ese"8es o" t!e bene it o bot! 2este"n an' lo$al e$onomies
40
Hege *ad- 0errorism

Heg causes %errorism
?ayne 0! 3sso$iate ."o esso" at t!e #us! S$!ool o
:5!"istop!e" H,!e .ea$e o ?llusionsI :p. 190(191< &o8e"nment an' .ubli$ Se"8i$e7 ,e0as 3S1 Uni8e"sity
,!e e8ents o 9;11 a"e anot!e" e0ample o !ow !egemony ma=es t!e Unite' States less se$u"e t!an it woul' be i
obAe$ti8es. 3s 5lausewit+ obse"8e'7 T2a" is not an a$t o senseless passion but is $ont"olle' by its politi$al obAe$t.T88
it ollowe' an o s!o"e balan$ing st"ategy. ,e""o"ism7 t!e 63%D 5o"po"ation te""o"ism e0pe"t #"u$e Ho man says7 is Tabout powe"4 t!e pu"suit o powe"7 t!e a$Buisition o powe"7 an' use o powe" to a$!ie8e politi$al $!ange.T86 ? we step ba$= o" a moment "om ou" !o""o" an' "e8ulsion at t!e e8ents o Septembe" 117 we $an see t!at t!e atta$= was in =eeping wit! t!e 5lausewit+ian pa"a'igm o wa"4 o"$e was use' against t!e Unite' States by its a'8e"sa"ies to a'8an$e t!ei" politi$al
Septembe" 11 "ep"esente' a 8iolent $ounte""ea$tion to 3me"i$aCs geopoliti$al(an' $ultu"al(!egemony. 3s t!e st"ategy e0pe"t 6i$!a"' ). #etts p"es$iently obse"8e' in a 1998 -o"eign 3 ai"s a"ti$le4 ?t is C!a"'ly li=ely t!at 1i''le /aste"n "a'i$als woul' be !at$!ing s$!emes li=e t!e 'est"u$tion o t!e 2o"l' ,"a'e 5ente" i t!e Unite' States !a' not been i'enti ie' so long as t!e mainstay o ?s"ael7 t!e s!a! o ?"an7 an' $onse"8ati8e 3"ab "egimes an' t!e sou"$e o a $ultu"al assault on ?slam.89 U.S. !egemony uels te""o"ist g"oups li=e al \ae'a an' ans ?slami$ un'amentalism7 w!i$! is a o"m o Tblowba$=T against 3me"i$aCs p"epon'e"an$e an' its wo"l' "ole.90 3s long as t!e Unite' States maintains its global !egemony( an' its $on$omitant p"eeminen$e in "egions li=e t!e .e"sian &ul (it will be t!e ta"get o politi$ally moti8ate' te""o"ist g"oups li=e al \ae'a. 3 te" 9;117 many o"eign poli$y analysts an' pun'its as=e' t!e Buestion7 T2!y 'o t!ey !ate usJT ,!is Buestion misse' t!e =ey point. %o 'oubt7 t!e"e a"e ?slami$ un'amentalists w!o 'o T!ateT t!e Unite' States o" $ultu"al7 "eligious7 an' i'eologi$al "easons. 3n' e8en lea8ing asi'e 3me"i$an neo$onse"8ati8esC ob8ious "elis! o" ma=ing it so7 to some e0tent t!e wa" on te""o" ines$apably !as o8e"tones o a T$las! o $i8ili+ations4C Still7 t!is isnCt(an' s!oul' not be allowe' to be$ome(a "eplay o t!e 5"usa'es. -un'amentally 9;11 was about geopoliti$s7 spe$i i$ally about U.S. !egemony. ,!e Unite' States may be g"eatly "e8ile' in some Bua"te"s o t!e ?slami$ wo"l'7 but we"e t!e Unite' States not so intimately in8ol8e' in t!e a ai"s o t!e 1i''le /ast7 itCs !a"'ly li=ely t!at t!is 'etestation woul' !a8e mani este' itsel in somet!ing li=e 9;11. 3s 1i$!ael
S$!eu"e"7 w!o !ea'e' t!e 5?3 analyti$al team monito"ing Osama bin @a'en an' al \ae'a7 puts it7 TOne o t!e g"eatest 'ange"s o" 3me"i$ans in 'e$i'ing !ow to $on "ont t!e ?slamist t!"eat lies in $ontinuing to belie8e(at t!e u"ging o senio" U.S. lea'e"s(t!at 1uslims !ate an' atta$= us o" w!at we a"e an' t!in=7 "at!e" t!an o" w!at we 'o.T91
?t is 3me"i$an poli$ies(to be p"e$ise7 3me"i$an !egemony(t!at ma=e t!e
Unite' States a lig!tning "o' o" 1uslim ange"
0errorism Causes 34%inc%ion

Sid-7hmed7 politi$al analyst 0 :1o!ame'7 1anaging /'ito" o" 3l(3!ali7 H/0tin$tionVI 3ugust 26(Septembe" 17 ?ssue no. 70*7 !ttp4;;wee=ly.a!"am.o"g.eg;2004;70*;op*.!tm< 2!at woul' be t!e $onseBuen$es o a nu$lea" atta$= by te""o"istsJ /8en i it ails7 it woul' u"t!e" e0a$e"bate t!e negati8e eatu"es o t!e new an' "ig!tening wo"l' in w!i$! we a"e now li8ing. So$ieties woul' $lose in on t!emsel8es7 poli$e measu"es woul' be steppe' up at t!e e0pense o !uman "ig!ts7 tensions between $i8ilisations an' "eligions woul' "ise an' et!ni$ $on li$ts woul' p"oli e"ate. ?t woul' also spee' up t!e a"ms "a$e an' 'e8elop t!e awa"eness t!at a 'i e"ent type o wo"l' o"'e" is impe"ati8e i !uman=in' is to su"8i8e. #ut t!e still mo"e $"iti$al s$ena"io is i t!e atta$= su$$ee's. ,!is $oul' lea' to a t!i"' wo"l' wa"7 "om w!i$! no one will eme"ge 8i$to"ious. Unli=e a $on8entional wa" w!i$! en's w!en one si'e t"iump!s o8e" anot!e"7 t!is wa" will be wit!out winne"s an' lose"s. 2!en nu$lea" pollution in e$ts t!e w!ole planet7 we will all be lose"s.
41
----34%. 0errorism
US Hege causes in%er;en%ionism> in)'aming %errorism.
?ayne --10-10 :5!"istop!e"7 -o"me" 6esea"$! -ellow7 ?nte"national Se$u"ity ."og"am7 199*(19967 Graceful Decline !ttp4;;am$onmag.$om;a"ti$le;2010;may;01;00030;7 7;13;10< 2it! "espe$t to ?slami$ te""o"ism7 we nee' to =eep ou" p"io"ities st"aig!t. ,e""o"ism is not t!e most p"essing national(se$u"ity t!"eat a$ing t!e Unite' States. &"eat powe"s $an be 'e eate' only by ot!e" g"eat powe"s Lnot by nonstate te""o"ists o" by mino" powe"s. ,!e U.S. nee's to be $a"e ul not to pay mo"e attention to ?slami$ te""o"ists t!an to eme"ging g"eat powe"s . He"e t!e Obama a'minist"ation an' De ense Se$"eta"y 6obe"t 1. &ates a"e getting it w"ong. 3lt!oug! many in t!e U.S. o"eign(poli$y $ommunityLespe$ially t!e $ounte"insu"gen$y lobby7 base' at t!e 5ente" o" a %ew 3me"i$an Se$u"ity7 an' t!e 3me"i$an /nte"p"ise ?nstituteL$all o" t!e U.S. to HwinI t!e wa" on te""o"7 t!e"e $an be no 'e$isi8e 8i$to"y o8e" te""o"ism . ,!e t"i$= is in'ing t!e "ig!t st"ategy to minimi+e its e e$ts on 3me"i$an se$u"ity. ,!e st"ategy o t!e #us! an' Obama a'minist"ationsLin8a'ing an' o$$upying ?"aB an' 3 g!anistanLis e0a$tly t!e w"ong app"oa$!. ,!e U.S. is ba' at $ounte"insu"gen$y. -o"eign o$$upying powe"s sel'om a"e goo' at it7 w!i$! is t!e main "eason big powe"s usually lose t!ese =in's o small wa"s. ,!e U.S. also is not goo' at nation(buil'ing. 6at!e" t!an Buelling te""o"ism7 a long(te"m o"eign milita"y p"esen$e in pla$es li=e ?"aB an' 3 g!anistan in lames nationalism an' anti(3me"i$anism.
0erroris%s arenD% de%erred &y mi'i%ary power &ecause i% )a''s ou% o) asymme%ric power ca'cu'a%ions
3'and 0# senio"
ellow at t!e ?n'epen'ent ?nstitute :i8an7 1e'ite""anean \ua"te"ly Folume 197 %umbe" 37 Summe" 20087 #a$= to t!e -utu"e4 6e'is$o8e"ing 3me"i$a9s -o"eign .oli$y ,"a'itions Du"ing t!e 5ol' 2a"7 at least a plausible a"gument $oul' be ma'e o" some M/n' .age 94N US inte"8ention o8e"seas to $ounte" So8iet en$"oa$!ment. #ut t!e 5ol' 2a" is long o8e"7 t!e So8iet "i8al is in t!e 'ustbin o !isto"y7 an'
,!e only type o atta$= t!at $annot be 'ete""e' by t!e US nu$lea" a"senal is t!at "om te""o"ists L as was 'emonst"ate' on 9;11. 6etaliation o" US inte"8entionism in t!e 3"ab(1uslim wo"l' is al \ae'a9s p"ima"y moti8e o" atta$=ing t!e Unite' States. Spe$i i$ally7 Osama bin @a'en9s biggest g"ipes a"e wit! US L t!at is7 non(1uslim L o$$upation o 1uslim lan's an' me''ling in t!ei" politi$s by suppo"ting $o""upt 'i$tato"s an' ?s"ael. #e$ause $on8entional an' nu$lea" milita"y powe" !a8e 8e"y little utility in stopping te""o"ist atta$=s an' be$ause t!e Unite' States !as an open so$iety7 wit! t!ousan's o miles o bo"'e"s an' many possible ta"gets7 !omelan' se$u"ity e o"ts will li=ely !a8e only limite' e e$t. %atu"ally7 in t!e s!o"t te"m7 t!e utmost e o"t s!oul' be ma'e to $aptu"e o" =ill bin @a'en an' e"a'i$ate al \ae'a7 but in t!e long te"m t!e only way to e e$ti8ely 'eal wit! anti X Unite' States te""o"ism is to "e'u$e t!e moti8ation o te""o"ists to atta$= 3me"i$a in t!e i"st pla$e. .oll a te" poll in t!e 1uslim wo"l' in'i$ates t!at 1uslims li=e US politi$al an' e$onomi$ "ee'oms7 te$!nology7 an' e8en $ultu"e but !ate US me''ling in t!ei" wo"l'. ,!us7 p"a$ti$ing milita"y "est"aint7 "at!e" t!an inte"8entionism7 woul' ma=e 3me"i$ans sa e" at !ome . ."ote$ting its $iti+ens an' p"ope"ty
t!e gains "om inte"8entionism !a8e been '"asti$ally "e'u$e' w!ile t!e $osts !a8e s=y"o$=ete'. s!oul' be t!e i"st goal o any go8e"nment7 but t!e US Buest o" an in o"mal global empi"e a$tually un'e"mines t!is obAe$ti8e. /mpi"e 'oes not eBual se$u"ity L in a$t7 it sabotages it.
42
())shore *a'ancing 1ron%'ine

Heg s%ops o))shore &a'ancing %ha%Ds <ey %o pre;en%ing regiona' wars> )inancia' crises> %errorism and pro'i)era%ion
5earsheimer 0# :>o!n7 p"o esso" o
!ttp4;;www.newswee=.$om;i';177380;output;p"int< 3s t!e new ."esi'ent ta=es o i$e7 in t!e 1i''le /ast. Despite ObamaCs p"omises to wit!'"aw "om ?"aB7 t!e 'eba$le t!e"e s!ows no sign o en'ing soon7 an' it !as ma'e 3me"i$aCs te""o"ism p"oblem wo"se7 not bette". 1eanw!ile7 Hamas "ules in &a+a7 ?"anCs statu"e is on t!e "ise an' ,e!"an is Bui$=ly mo8ing to a$Bui"e a nu$lea" 'ete""entLw!i$!7 'espite a lot o toug! tal=7 t!e Unite' States an' its allies !a8e been unable to p"e8ent. 3n' 3me"i$aCs image t!"oug!out t!e 1i''le /ast is at an all(time low. 3ll t!is is a 'i"e$t "esult o t!e #us! a'minist"ationCs misgui'e' poli$y o "egional t"ans o"mation. &eo"ge 2. politi$al s$ien$e at t!e Uni8e"sity o 5!i$ago an' $oaut!o" o H,!e ?s"ael @obby an' U.S. -o"eign .oli$yI7 De$embe" 317 H.ull ,!ose #oots O ,!e &"oun'I7
t!e Unite' States is in 'eep t"ouble
#us! !ope' !e $oul' implant 'emo$"a$y in t!e 1i''le /ast by using t!e U.S. milita"y to topple t!e un "ien'ly "egime in #ag!'a' Lan' maybe t!ose in Damas$us an' ,e!"an7 tooLan' "epla$e t!em wit! "ien'ly7 'emo$"ati$ go8e"nments . ,!ings 'i'nCt wo"= out well7 o $ou"se7 an' itCs now 8ital t!at t!e new p"esi'ent 'e8ise a "a'i$ally 'i e"ent st"ategy o" 'ealing wit! t!is $"iti$al pa"t o t!e wo"l'. -o"tunately7 one approach has pro;ed e))ec%i;e in %he pas% and cou'd ser;e 7merica again %oday8 Io))shore &a'ancing.T Du"ing t!e $ol' wa"7 t!is st"ategy enable' 2as!ington to $ontain ?"an an' ?"aB an' 'ete" 'i"e$t So8iet inte"8ention in t!e oil("i$! .e"sian &ul . 3s a 1i''le /ast poli$y7 o s!o"e balan$ing may be less ambitious t!an #us!Cs g"an' 'esign wasLno one p"omises it will lea' to an T3"ab sp"ingTLbut it will be mu$! mo"e e e$ti8e at p"ote$ting a$tual U.S. inte"ests. So w!at woul' it loo= li=eJ 3s an o s!o"e balan$e"7 t!e Unite' States woul' =eep its milita"y o"$esLespe$ially its g"oun' an' ai" o"$esLoutsi'e t!e 1i''le /ast7 not sma$= in t!e $ente" o it. Hen$e t!e te"m To s!o"e.T 3s o" Tbalan$ing7T t!at woul' mean "elying on "egional powe"s li=e ?"an7 ?"aB an' Sau'i 3"abia to $!e$= ea$! ot!e". 2as!ington woul' "emain 'iplomati$ally engage'7 an' w!en ne$essa"y woul' assist t!e wea=e" si'e in a $on li$t. ?t woul' also use its ai" an' na8al powe" to signal a $ontinue' U.S. $ommitment to t!e "egion an' woul' "etain t!e $apa$ity to "espon' Bui$=ly to une0pe$te' t!"eats7 li=e ?"aBCs in8asion o )uwait in 1990. #utLan' t!is is t!e =ey pointLt!e Unite' States woul' put boots on t!e g"oun' in t!e 1i''le /ast only i t!e lo$al balan$e o powe" se"iously b"o=e 'own an' one $ount"y t!"eatene' to 'ominate t!e ot!e"s. S!o"t o t!at7 3me"i$a woul' =eep its sol'ie"s an' pilots To8e" t!e !o"i+onTLnamely at sea7 in bases outsi'e t!e "egion o" ba$= !ome in t!e Unite' States. ,!is
app"oa$! mig!t st"i=e some as $yni$al a te" #us!Cs lo ty "!eto"i$. ?t woul' 'o little to oste" 'emo$"a$y o" p"omote !uman "ig!ts. #ut #us! $oul'nCt 'eli8e" on t!ose p"omises anyway7 an' it is ultimately up to in'i8i'ual
O s!o"e balan$ing7 mo"eo8e"7 is not!ing new4 t!e Unite' States pu"sue' su$! a st"ategy in t!e 1i''le /ast 8e"y su$$ess ully 'u"ing mu$! o t!e $ol' wa". ?t ne8e" t"ie' to ga""ison t!e "egion o" t"ans o"m it along 'emo$"ati$ lines. ?nstea'7 2as!ington soug!t to maintain a "egional balan$e o powe" by ba$=ing 8a"ious lo$al allies an' by 'e8eloping t!e $apa$ityLin t!e o"m
$ount"ies7 not 2as!ington7 to 'ete"mine t!ei" politi$al systems. ?t is !a"'ly $yni$al to base U.S. st"ategy on a "ealisti$ app"aisal o 3me"i$an inte"ests an' a $lea"(eye' sense o w!at U.S. powe" $annot a$$omplis!. o t!e 6api' Deployment -o"$e :6D-<7 w!i$! b"oug!t toget!e" i8e 3"my an' 1a"ine 'i8isions7 se8en ta$ti$al ig!te" wings an' t!"ee ai"$"a t($a""ie" battle g"oupsLto 'ete" o" inte"8ene 'i"e$tly i t!e So8iet Union7 ?"aB o" ?"an t!"eatene' to upen' t!e balan$e. ,!e Unite' States !elpe' ?"aB $ontain "e8olutiona"y ?"an in t!e 1980s7 but w!en ?"aBCs $onBuest o )uwait in 1990 t!"eatene' to tilt t!ings in #ag!'a'Cs a8o"7 t!e Unite' States assemble' a
O s!o"e balan$ing !as t!"ee pa"ti$ula" 8i"tues t!at woul' be espe$ially appealing to'ay. -i"st7 it woul' signi i$antly "e'u$e :t!oug! not eliminate< t!e $!an$es t!at t!e Unite' States woul' get in8ol8e' in anot!e" bloo'y an' $ostly wa" li=e ?"aB. 3me"i$a 'oesnCt nee' to $ont"ol t!e 1i''le /ast wit! its own o"$esD it me"ely nee's to ensu"e t!at no ot!e" $ount"y 'oes. ,owa"' t!at en' 7 o s!o"e balan$ing woul' "eAe$t t!e use o milita"y o"$e to "es!ape t!e politi$s o t!e "egion an' woul' "ely instea' on lo$al allies to $ontain t!ei" 'ange"ous neig!bo"s. 3s an o s!o"e balan$e"7 t!e Unite' States woul' !usban' its own "esou"$es an' inte"8ene only as a last "eso"t. 3n' w!en it 'i'7 it woul' inis! Bui$=ly an' t!en mo8e ba$= o s!o"e. ,!e "elati8e ine0pensi8eness o t!is app"oa$! is pa"ti$ula"ly att"a$ti8e in t!e $u""ent $limate . ,!e U.S. inan$ial bailout !as been !ugely e0pensi8e7 an' itCs not $lea" w!en t!e e$onomy will "e$o8e". ?n t!is en8i"onment7 3me"i$a simply $annot a o"' to be ig!ting en'less wa"s a$"oss t!e 1i''le /ast7 o" anyw!e"e else. 6emembe" t!at 2as!ington !as al"ea'y spent E600 billion on t!e ?"aB 2a"7 an' t!e tally is li=ely to !it mo"e t!an E1 t"illion be o"e
multinational $oalition $ente"e' on t!e 6D- an' smas!e' Sa''am HusseinCs milita"y ma$!ine. t!at $on li$t is o8e". ?magine t!e a''e' e$onomi$ $onseBuen$es o a wa" wit! ?"an. O s!o"e balan$ing woul' not be "eeLt!e Unite' States woul' still !a8e to maintain a si+able e0pe'itiona"y o"$e an' t!e $apa$ity to mo8e it
Se$on'7 o s!o"e balan$ing woul' amelio"ate 3me"i$aCs te""o"ism p"oblem . One o t!e =ey lessons o t!e past $entu"y is t!at nationalism an' ot!e" o"ms o lo$al i'entity "emain intensely powe" ul7 an' o"eign o$$upie"s gene"ate ie"$e lo$al "esentment. ,!at "esentment o ten mani ests itsel in te""o"ism o" e8en la"ge(s$ale insu"gen$ies 'i"e$te' at t!e Unite' States. 2!en t!e 6eagan a'minist"ation put U.S. t"oops in #ei"ut ollowing ?s"aelCs in8asion o @ebanon in 19827 lo$al te""o"ists "espon'e' by sui$i'e(bombing t!e U.S. /mbassy in 3p"il 1983 an' t!e U.S. 1a"ine ba""a$=s in O$tobe"7 =illing mo"e t!an 300. )eeping U.S. milita"y o"$es out o sig!t until t!ey a"e nee'e' woul' minimi+e t!e ange" $"eate' by !a8ing t!em pe"manently statione' on 3"ab soil. ,!i"'7 o s!o"e balan$ing woul' "e'u$e ea"s in ?"an an' Sy"ia t!at t!e Unite' States aims to atta$= t!em an' "emo8e t!ei" "egimes La =ey "eason t!ese states a"e $u""ently see=ing weapons o mass 'est"u$tion. .e"sua'ing ,e!"an to aban'on its nu$lea" p"og"am will "eBui"e 2as!ington to a''"ess ?"anCs legitimate se$u"ity
Bui$=lyLbut woul' be a lot $!eape" t!an t!e alte"nati8e. $on$e"ns an' to "e "ain "om issuing o8e"t t!"eats. 6emo8ing U.S. t"oops "om t!e neig!bo"!oo' woul' be a goo' sta"t. ,!e Unite' States $anCt a o"' to $ompletely 'isengage "om t!e 1i''le /ast7 but o s!o"e balan$ing woul'
t!is st"ategy woul' en$ou"age $onten'ing "egional powe"s to $ompete o" t!e Unite' StatesC a8o"7 t!e"eby a$ilitating a st"ategy o 'i8i'e(an'($onBue" . 3 inal7 $ompelling "eason to a'opt t!is app"oa$! to t!e 1i''le /ast is t!at not!ing else !as wo"=e'. ?n t!e ea"ly 1990s7 t!e 5linton a'minist"ation pu"sue' a T'ual $ontainmentT st"ategy4
ma=e U.S. in8ol8ement t!e"e less t!"eatening. ?nstea' o lumping potential oes toget!e" an' en$ou"aging t!em to Aoin o"$es against 3me"i$a7 instea' o using ?"aB an' ?"an to $!e$= ea$! ot!e"7 t!e Unite' States began t"ying to $ontain bot!. ,!is poli$y gua"antee' only t!at ea$! $ount"y $ame to 8iew t!e Unite' States as a bitte" enemy. ?t also "eBui"e' t!e Unite' States to 'eploy la"ge numbe"s o t"oops in )uwait an' Sau'i 3"abia. ,!e poli$y uele' lo$al "esentment7 !elpe' pe"sua'e Osama bin @a'en to 'e$la"e wa" on 3me"i$a an' le' to t!e bombing o t!e )!oba" ,owe"s in 19967 t!e atta$= on t!e USS 5ole in 2000 an'7 e8entually7 9;11. S!o"tly a te" 9;117 t!e #us! a'minist"ation Aettisone' 'ual $ontainment in a8o" o "egional t"ans o"mation. 2!en #ag!'a' ell7 it b"ie ly seeme' t!at #us! Aust mig!t su$$ee'. #ut t!e o$$upation soon alte"e'7 an' 3me"i$aCs position in t!e "egion went "om ba' to wo"se. ,!e new p"esi'entCs only !ope o" e0t"i$ating 3me"i$a "om t!e "esultant mess is to "etu"n to t!e one 1i''le /ast st"ategy t!atCs wo"=e'
7 an o s!o"e(balan$ing st"ategy woul' mean en'ing t!e ?"aB 2a" as Bui$=ly as possible w!ile wo"=ing to minimi+e t!e ?nstea' o t!"eatening ?"an wit! p"e8enti8e wa"Lan app"oa$! t!atCs M5ontinue'( wit! no te0te' "emo8e'N[
well in t!e past. ?n p"a$ti$al te"ms bloo's!e' t!e"e an' t!"oug!out t!e "egion.
only uele' ,e!"anCs 'esi"e o" nu$lea" weapons an' in$"ease' t!e popula"ity o ."esi'ent 1a!mou' 3!ma'ineAa'Lt!e new a'minist"ation s!oul' t"y to $ut a 'eal by o e"ing ?"an se$u"ity gua"antees in "etu"n o" signi i$ant an' 8e"i( iable limits on its nu$lea"(en"i$!ment p"og"am . ,!e Unite' States s!oul' also ta=e its sig!ts o t!e 3ssa' "egime in Sy"ia an' pus! bot! it an' ?s"ael to "ea$! a pea$e ag"eement . ,!is st"ategy woul'nCt eliminate all t!e p"oblems t!e Unite' States a$es in t!e 1i''le /ast. #ut it woul' "e'u$e t!e li=eli!oo' o utu"e 'isaste"s li=e ?"aB7 signi i$antly
43
"e'u$e 3me"i$aCs te""o"ism p"oblem an' ma0imi+e 2as!ingtonCs p"ospe$ts o t!wa"ting nu$lea" p"oli e"ation . ?t woul' also be $onsi'e"ably less
e0pensi8e in bot! !uman an' inan$ial te"ms. ,!e"e a"e no oolp"oo st"ategies in inte"national politi$s7 but o s!o"e balan$ing is p"obably as $lose as we $an get.
0errorism Causes 34%inc%ion

Sid-7hmed7 politi$al analyst 0 :1o!ame'7 1anaging /'ito" o" 3l(3!ali7 H/0tin$tionVI 3ugust 26(Septembe" 17 ?ssue no. 70*7 !ttp4;;wee=ly.a!"am.o"g.eg;2004;70*;op*.!tm< 2!at woul' be t!e $onseBuen$es o a nu$lea" atta$= by te""o"istsJ /8en i it ails7 it woul' u"t!e" e0a$e"bate t!e negati8e eatu"es o t!e new an' "ig!tening wo"l' in w!i$! we a"e now li8ing. So$ieties woul' $lose in on t!emsel8es7 poli$e measu"es woul' be steppe' up at t!e e0pense o !uman "ig!ts7 tensions between $i8ilisations an' "eligions woul' "ise an' et!ni$ $on li$ts woul' p"oli e"ate. ?t woul' also spee' up t!e a"ms "a$e an' 'e8elop t!e awa"eness t!at a 'i e"ent type o wo"l' o"'e" is impe"ati8e i !uman=in' is to su"8i8e. #ut t!e still mo"e $"iti$al s$ena"io is i t!e atta$= su$$ee's. ,!is $oul' lea' to a t!i"' wo"l' wa"7 "om w!i$! no one will eme"ge 8i$to"ious. Unli=e a $on8entional wa" w!i$! en's w!en one si'e t"iump!s o8e" anot!e"7 t!is wa" will be wit!out winne"s an' lose"s. 2!en nu$lea" pollution in e$ts t!e w!ole planet7 we will all be lose"s.
5idd'e 3as% 6ar ,oes +uc'ear

S%ein&ach7 D5 ?"aB 5oalition7 ?S63/@? 2/3.O%S O- 13SS D/S,6U5,?O%4 3 ,H6/3, ,O ./35/7 1a"$! 20027 !ttp4;;www.global"esea"$!.$a;a"ti$les;S,/2033.!tml t!e e0isten$e o an a"senal o mass 'est"u$tion in su$! an unstable "egion in tu"n !as se"ious impli$ations o" utu"e a"ms $ont"ol an' 'isa"mament negotiations7 an' e8en t!e t!"eat o nu$lea" wa". Seymou" He"s! wa"ns7 TS!oul' wa" b"ea= out in t!e 1i''le /ast again7... o" s!oul' any 3"ab nation i"e missiles against ?s"ael7 as t!e ?"aBis 'i'7 a nu$lea" es$alation7 on$e unt!in=able e0$ept as a last "eso"t7 woul' now be a st"ong p"obability.T an' /+a" 2eissman7 ?s"aelCs $u""ent ."esi'ent sai' T,!e nu$lea" issue is gaining momentum:an' t!e< ne0t wa" will not be $on8entional.T 6ussia an' be o"e it t!e So8iet Union !as long been a maAo":i not t!e maAo"< ta"get o ?s"aeli nu=es. ?t is wi'ely "epo"te' t!at t!e p"in$ipal pu"pose o >onat!an .olla"'Cs spying o" ?s"ael was to u"nis! satellite images o So8iet ta"gets an' ot!e" supe" sensiti8e
>o!n 1eanw!ile7 'ata "elating to U.S. nu$lea" ta"geting st"ategy. :Sin$e laun$!ing its own satellite in 19887 ?s"ael no longe" nee's U.S. spy se$"ets.< ?s"aeli nu=es aime' at t!e 6ussian !ea"tlan' se"iously $ompli$ate 'isa"mament an' a"ms $ont"ol negotiations an'7 at t!e 8e"y least7 t!e unilate"al possession o nu$lea" weapons by ?s"ael is eno"mously 'estabili+ing7 an' '"amati$ally lowe"s t!e t!"es!ol' o" t!ei" a$tual use7 i not o" all out nu$lea" wa". ?n t!e wo"'s o 1a"= &a ney7 T... i t!e amilia" patte"n:?s"ael "e ining its weapons o mass 'est"u$tion wit! U.S. $ompli$ity< is not "e8e"se' soon( o" w!ate8e" "eason( t!e
'eepening 1i''le /ast $on li$t $oul'
t"igge" a wo"l' $on lag"ation.T
3conomic co''apse 'eads %o nuc'ear war

0he *a'%imore 34aminer $ MH2ill t!is "e$ession lea' to 2o"l' 2a" ??7I 2;267 !ttp4;;www.e0amine".$om;0(3108(#altimo"e(6epubli$an(/0amine"]y2009m2'26(2ill(t!is(
"e$ession(lea'(to(2o"l'(2a"(???N
5oul' t!e $u""ent e$onomi$ $"isis a e$ting t!is $ount"y an' t!e wo"l' lea' to anot!e" wo"l' wa"J ,!e answe" may be oun' by loo=ing ba$= in !isto"y. One o t!e $auses o 2o"l' 2a" ? was t!e e$onomi$ "i8al"y t!at e0iste' between t!e nations o /u"ope. ?n t!e 19t! $entu"y -"an$e an' &"eat #"itain be$ame wealt!y t!"oug! $olonialism an' t!e $ont"ol o o"eign "esou"$es. ,!is o"$e' ot!e" up(an'($oming nations :su$! as &e"many< to be mo"e $ompetiti8e in wo"l' t"a'e w!i$! le' to "i8al"ies an' ultimately7 to wa". 3 te" t!e &"eat Dep"ession "uine' t!e e$onomies o /u"ope in t!e 1930s7 as$ist mo8ements a"ose to see= e$onomi$ an' so$ial $ont"ol. -"om t!e"e anati$s li=e Hitle" an' 1ussolini too= o8e" &e"many an' ?taly an' le' t!em bot! into 2o"l' 2a" ??. 2it! most o %o"t! 3me"i$a an' 2este"n /u"ope $u""ently e0pe"ien$ing a "e$ession7 will $ompetition o" "esou"$es an' e$onomi$ "i8al"ies wit! t!e 1i''le /ast7 3sia7 o" Sout! 3me"i$an $ause anot!e" wo"l' wa"J 3'' in nu$lea" weapons an' ?slami$ un'amentalism an' t!ings loo= e8en wo"se. Hope ully t!e e$onomy gets bette" be o"e it gets wo"se an' t!e %erri)ying possi&i'i%y o 2o"l' 2a" ??? is a8e"te'. Howe8e" some%imes his%ory repea%s i%se').
+uc'ear 2ro'i)era%ion Causes 34%inc%ion

U%go)) 02
Fi$to" Utgo 7 Deputy Di"e$to" o t!e St"ategy7 -o"$es7 an' 6esou"$es Di8ision o t!e ?nstitute o" De ense 3nalysis7 SU6F?F3@7 -all720027 p. 87(90
p"oli e"ation is li=ely to lea' to an o$$asional s!oot(out wit! nu$lea" weapons7 an' t!at su$! s!oot(outs will !a8e a substantial p"obability o es$alating to t!e ma0imum 'est"u$tion possible wit! t!e weapons at !an'. Unless nu$lea" p"oli e"ation is stoppe'7 we a"e !ea'e' towa"' a wo"l' t!at will mi""o" t!e 3me"i$an 2il' 2est o t!e late 1800s. 2it! most7 i not all7 nations wea"ing nu$lea" Csi0(s!oote"sC on t!ei" !ips7 t!e wo"l' may e8en be a mo"e polite pla$e t!an it is to'ay7 but e8e"y on$e in a w!ile we will all gat!e" on a !ill to bu"y t!e bo'ies o 'ea' $ities o" e8en w!ole nations.
?n sum7 wi'esp"ea'
44
----34%. ())shore *a'ancing

Hege Dec'ine wi'' &e ;io'en%- on'y %hing %o smoo%h %he %ransi%ion is %a<e ac%ion now in a coordina%ed mo;e %o o))shore &a'ancing.
?ayne --10-10 :5!"istop!e"7 -o"me" 6esea"$! -ellow7 ?nte"national Se$u"ity ."og"am7 199*(19967 Graceful Decline !ttp4;;am$onmag.$om;a"ti$le;2010;may;01;00030;7 7;13;10< ?n $oming yea"s7 t!e U.S. will be un'e" in$"easing p"essu"e to 'e en' t!e 'olla" by p"e8enting "unaway in lation . ,!is will "eBui"e it to impose is$al sel ('is$ipline t!"oug! some $ombination o bu'get $uts7 ta0 in$"eases7 an' inte"est("ate !i=es. &i8en t!at t!e last two options $oul' $!o=e o "enewe' g"owt!7 t!e"e is li=ely to be st"ong p"essu"e to slas! t!e e'e"al bu'get. #ut it will be almost impossible to ma=e meaning ul $uts in e'e"al spen'ing wit!out 'eep "e'u$tions in 'e ense e0pen'itu"es. Dis$"etiona"y non('e ense 'omesti$ spen'ing a$$ounts o" only about 20 pe"$ent o annual e'e"al outlays. So t!e Unite' States will a$e ob8ious Hguns o" butte"I $!oi$es. 3s )i"s!ne" puts it7 t!e absolute si+e o U.S. 'e ense e0pen'itu"es a"e Hmo"e li=ely to be 'e$isi8e in t!e utu"e w!en t!e U.S. is un'e" p"essu"e to ma=e "eal $!oi$es about ta0es an' spen'ing. 2!en bo""owing be$omes mo"e 'i i$ult7 an' a'Austment mo"e 'i i$ult to postpone7 $!oi$es must be ma'e between "aising ta0es7 $utting non('e ense spen'ing7 an' $utting 'e ense spen'ing.I -a$e' wit! t!ese !a"' 'e$isions7 7mericans wi'' )ind %hemse';es a))'ic%ed wi%h hegemony )a%igue. ,!e Unite' States will be $ompelle' to o8e"!aul its st"ategy '"amati$ally7 an' "at!e" t!an !a8ing t!is a'Austment o"$e' upon it su''enly by a maAo" $"isis7 t!e U.S. s!oul' get a!ea' o t!e $u"8e by s!i ting its position in a g"a'ual7 o"'e"ly as!ion. 3 new 3me"i$an global postu"e woul' in8ol8e st"ategi$ "et"en$!ment7 bu"'en(s!i ting7 an' aban'onment o t!e so($alle' Hglobal $ounte"insu"gen$yI being wage' in 3 g!anistan an' ?"aB. 3s a i"st step7 t!e U.S. will nee' to pull ba$= "om its $u""ent se$u"ity $ommitments to %3,O7 >apan7 an' Sout! )o"ea. 0his is no% iso'a%ionism. ,!e Unite' States un'e"too= t!e 'e ense o t!ese "egions un'e" $on'itions
8e"y 'i e"ent "om t!ose p"e8ailing to'ay. ?n t!e late 1940s7 all we"e t!"eatene' by t!e So8iet UnionLin t!e $ase o Sout! )o"ea an' >apan7 by 5!ina as wellLan' we"e too wea= to 'e en' t!emsel8es. ,!e U.S. 'i' t!e "ig!t t!ing by e0ten'ing its se$u"ity umb"ella an' H'"awing a line in t!e san'I to $ontain t!e So8iet Union. #ut t!ese $ommitments we"e ne8e" inten'e' to be pe"manent. ,!ey we"e meant as a tempo"a"y s!iel' to enable 2este"n /u"ope7 >apan7 an' Sout! )o"ea to buil' up t!ei" own e$onomi$ an' milita"y st"engt! an' assume "esponsibility o" 'e en'ing t!emsel8es. ,!e"e a"e se8e"al e0planations o" w!y t!e U.S. 'i' not ollow t!"oug! wit! t!is poli$y. -un'amentally7 'u"ing t!e .a0 3me"i$ana t!e"e was no nee'. 3s t!e U.S. 'e$lines7 !owe8e"7 it will be $ompelle' to "etu"n to its o"iginal intent. ? we "emembe" t!at an e8entual pullba$= was t!e goal o U.S. poli$y7 st"ategi$ "et"en$!ment in t!e ea"ly 21st $entu"y loo=s less li=e a "a'i$al b"ea= t!an a ul illment o st"ategi$ goals a'opte' in t!e late 1940s. #u"'en(s!i tingLnot bu"'en(s!a"ingLis t!e ob8ious $o"olla"y o st"ategi$ "et"en$!ment.
3me"i$an poli$y s!oul' see= to $ompel ou" allies to assume "esponsibility o" t!ei" own se$u"ity an' ta=e t!e lea' "ole in p"o8i'ing se$u"ity in t!ei" "egions. ,o implement t!is st"ategi$ 'e8olution7 t!e U.S. s!oul' 'isengage g"a'ually "om its $u""ent $ommitments in o"'e" to gi8e an a'eBuate t"ansition pe"io' o" its allies to step up to t!e plate. ?t s!oul' a$ilitate t!is t"ansition by p"o8i'ing a'8an$e' weapons an' milita"y te$!nology to "ien'ly states in /u"ope an' 3sia .
7nd we ha;e %o %ransi%ion now> mus% reJec%Ds %he a))Ds ho'd on e4cep%iona'ismE;io'en% dec'ine is ine;i%a&'e in %ha% mindse%.
?ayne --10-10 :5!"istop!e"7 -o"me" 6esea"$! -ellow7 ?nte"national Se$u"ity ."og"am7 199*(19967 Graceful Decline !ttp4;;am$onmag.$om;a"ti$le;2010;may;01;00030;7 7;13;10< ,!ese assumptions in8est 3me"i$an o"eign poli$y wit! a ten'en$y to see t!e wo"l' in te"ms o goo' 8e"sus e8il. 3n' be$ause t!e U.S. loo=s t!"oug! t!is p"ism7 it belie8es it !as t!e obligation to p"e8ail in t!is global st"uggle. 3me"i$a9s se$u"ity an' way o li e a"e pu"po"te'ly en'ange"e' by t!e e0isten$e o !ostile i'eologies anyw!e"e in t!e wo"l' be$ause pea$e an' "ee'om a"e allege'ly in'i8isible. ?nte"8ention is t!us t!e Unite' States9 'e ault in o"eign poli$y. 2e attempt to tame t!e wo"l' by e0po"ting 'emo$"a$y be$auseLwe a"e tol'L'emo$"a$ies 'o not ig!t ea$! ot!e". 2e e0po"t ou" mo'el o "ee(ma"=et $apitalism be$auseLwe a"e tol'Lstates t!at a"e e$onomi$ally inte"'epen'ent 'o not ig!t ea$! ot!e". 2e wo"= multilate"ally t!"oug! inte"national institutions be$auseLwe a"e tol'Lt!ese p"omote $oope"ation an' t"ust among states. %one o t!ese p"opositions is sel (e8i'ent. ?n'ee'7 t!e"e is o8e"w!elming e8i'en$e t!at t!ey a"e w"ong . #ut t!ey a"e illusions t!at He0p"ess t!e 'eepest belie s w!i$! 3me"i$ans7 as a nation7 !ol' about t!e wo"l'.I So we $ling to t!e i'ea t!at ou" !egemony is ne$essa"y o" ou" own an' e8e"yone else9s se$u"ity. ,!e $onseBuen$e !as been to $ont"ibute to t!e 8e"y impe"ial o8e"st"et$! t!at is a$$ele"ating t!e Unite' States9 'e$line. #e$ause t!at U.S. enAoye' su$! 8ast supe"io"ity o" su$! a long time7 it !a' t!e lu0u"y o a$ting on its 'elusions wit!out paying too !ig! a p"i$e. :,!at is7 i you 'is$ount t!e *87000 names on t!e Fietnam 1emo"ial o" t!e tens o t!ousan's o U.S. milita"y pe"sonnel w!o !a8e su e"e' 'is igu"ing woun's o" been =ille' in ?"aB an' 3 g!anistan.< #ut as my g"a'uate s$!ool mento"7 )ennet! 2alt+7 one o t!e towe"ing igu"es in t!e stu'y o inte"national politi$s7 use' to tell us about 3me"i$an o"eign poli$y7 H 2!en you a"e big7 st"ong7 an' powe" ul7 you $an a o"' to ma=e t!e same 'umb mista=es o8e" an' o8e" again. #ut w!en you" powe" 'e$lines7 you begin to pay a p"i$e o" "epeating you" mista=es.I U.S. 'e$line means t!at in t!e 21st $entu"y7 t!e Unite' States will pay a !ig! p"i$e i it en'lessly "epeats its mista=es. ,o $!ange ou" o"eign poli$yLto $ome to g"ips wit! t!e en' o t!e .a0 3me"i$ana Lwe i"st nee' to $!ange t!e way we see t!e wo"l'.
4*
708 Hege ,ood- 6ar

Hegemony causes g'o&a' war
&ab"iel
.o'<o7 !isto"ian o
mo'e"n wa" a"e7 ,H/ 3&/ O- 2364 ,H/ U%?,/D S,3,/S 5O%-6O%,S ,H/ 2O6@D7
3t t!e beginning o t!e twenty( i"st $entu"y7 only
200!7 p. 173(6 t!e Unite' States !as t!e will to maintain a global o"eign poli$y an' to inte"8ene e8e"yw!e"e it
belie8es ne$essa"y. ,o'ay an' in t!e nea"
utu"e7 t!e Unite' States will ma=e t!e 'e$isions t!at will lea' to wa" o" pea$e7 an' t!e ate o mu$! o t!e wo"l' is la"gely in its !an's. ?t possesses t!e a"ms an' a spe$t"um o milita"y st"ategies all p"e'i$ate' on a t"iump!ant a$ti8ist "ole o" itsel . ?t belie8es t!at its e$onomy $an a o"' inte"8entionism an' t!at t!e 3me"i$an publi$ will suppo"t w!ate8e" a$tions ne$essa"y to set t!e a ai"s o some $ount"y o" "egion on t!e politi$al pat! it 'eems essential. ,!is g"an'iose ambition is bipa"tisan7 an' 'etails notwit!stan'ing7 bot! pa"ties !a8e always s!a"e' a $onsensus on it. ,!e obsession wit! powe" an' t!e $on8i$tion t!at a"mies $an p"o'u$e t!e politi$al out$ome a nationCs lea'e"s 'esi"e is by no means an e0$lusi8ely 3me"i$an illusion. ?t is a notion t!at goes ba$= many $entu"ies an' !as p"o'u$e' t!e main wa"s o mo'e"n times. ,!e "ule o o"$e
#ut unli=e t!e lea'e"s o most /u"opean nations o" >apan7 US lea'e"s !a8e not gaine' insig!t "om t!e $alamities t!at !a8e so sea"e' mo'e"n !isto"y. -olly is s$a"$ely a US monopoly7 but "esistan$e to lea"ning w!en g"a8e
!as been wit! !uman=in' a 8e"y long time7 an' t!e assumptions be!in' it !a8e plague' its !isto"y o" $entu"ies. e""o"s !a8e been $ommitte' is almost p"opo"tionate to t!e "esou"$es a8ailable to "epeat t!em. ,!e &e"mans lea"ne' t!ei" lesson a te" two 'e eats7 t!e >apanese a te" 2o"l' 2a" ??7 an' bot! nations oun' wa"s too e!austing an' politi$ally 'ange"ous. ,!e Unite' States still belie8es t!at i i"epowe" ails to maste" a situation7 t!e solution is to use it mo"e p"e$isely an' mu$! mo"e o it. ?n t!is "ega"' it is e0$eptionalLpast ailu"es !a8e not ma'e it any
2a"s a"e at least as li=ely to'ay as any time o8e" t!e past $entu"y. O g"eat impo"tan$e is t!e en' o So8iet !egemony in /aste"n /u"ope an' 1os$owCs "est"aining t!e p"oli e"ation o nu$lea" te$!nology an' ot!e" means o mass 'est"u$tion !a8e also ma'e la"ge pa"ts o t!e wo"l' a" mo"e 'ange"ous. Dea'ly lo$al wa"s wit! $on8entional weapons in 3 "i$a7 t!e #al=ans7 1i''le /ast7 an' elsew!e"e !a8e multiplie' sin$e t!e 1960s. /u"ope7 espe$ially &e"many7 an' >apan7 a"e a" st"onge" an' mo"e in'epen'ent t!an at any time sin$e 194*7 an' 5!inaCs "api'ly e0pan'ing e$onomy !as gi8en it a 8astly mo"e
wise". in luen$e elsew!e"e. #ut impo"tant "ole in 3sia. ?'eologi$ally7 $ommunismCs 'emise means t!at t!e simpli ie' bipola"ism t!at 2as!ington use' to e0plain t!e wo"l' $ease' a te" 1990 to !a8e any 8alue. 2it! it7 t!e allian$es $"eate' nominally to "esist $ommunism !a8e eit!e" been abolis!e' o" a"e a s!a'ow o t!ei" o"iginal sel8esD t!ey !a8e no "eason o" e0isten$e. ,!e $"isis in t!e %o"t! 3tlanti$ ,"eaty O"gani+ation :%3,O<7 essentially7 "e le$ts t!is 'i usion o all o"ms o powe" an' t!e 'iminution o US !egemony. /$onomi$ally7 t!e $apitalist nations !a8e "esume' t!ei" "i8al"ies7 an' t!ey !a8e be$ome mo"e intense wit! t!e g"owt! o t!ei" e$onomies an' t!e 'e$line in t!e 'olla"Lw!i$! by 2004 was as wea= as it !as been in o8e" i ty yea"s. ,!ese states !a8e a g"eat 'eal in $ommon i'eologi$ally7 but $on$"etely t!ey a"e in$"easingly "i8als. ,!e 8i"tual monopoly o nu$lea" weapons t!at e0iste' about a Bua"te"($entu"y ago !as en'e' wit! p"oli e"ation.J7 2!et!e" it is $alle' a Tmultipola"T wo"l'7 to use -"en$! p"esi'ent >a$Bues 5!i"a$Cs e0p"ession in %o8embe" 20047 in w!i$! /u"ope7 5!ina7 ?n'ia7 an' e8en e8entually Sout! 3me"i$a ollow t!ei" own inte"ests7 o" somet!ing else7 t!e 'i"e$tion is $lea". ,!e"e may o" may not be Ta un'amental "est"u$tu"ing o t!e global o"'e"7T as t!e $!ai"man o t!e 5ent"al ?ntelligen$e 3gen$yCs :5?3Cs< %ational ?ntelligen$e 5oun$il p"es$iently "e le$te' in 3p"il 20037 but t!e $on$lusion was una8oi'able Tt!at we a"e a$ing a mo"e lui' an' $ompli$ate' set o alignments t!an anyt!ing we !a8e seen sin$e t!e o"mation o t!e 3tlanti$ allian$e in 1949.T
,e""o"ism an' t!e global e$onomy !a8e 'e ie' o8e"w!elming US milita"y powe"4 TOu" sma"t bombs a"enCt t!at sma"t.TC 2a"s7 w!et!e" $i8il o" between states7 "emain t!e p"in$ipal :but s$a"$ely t!e only< $!allenge $on "onting !umanity in t!e twenty( i"st $entu"y. /$ologi$al 'isaste"s "elentlessly a e$ting all 'imensions o t!e en8i"onment a"e also insi'ious be$ause o t!e unwillingness o t!e $"u$ial nationsLabo8e all t!e Unite' StatesLto a'opt measu"es essential o" "e8e"sing t!ei" 'amage. ,!e $!allenges a$ing !umanity !a8e ne8e" been so $omple0 an' t!"eatening 7 an' t!e en' o t!e 5ol' 2a"7 alt!oug! one p"e$on'ition o
p"og"ess7 is s$a"$ely "eason o" $ompla$e"iby o" optimism. ,!e p"oblems t!e wo"l' $on "onts a" t"ans$en' t!e $ommunist($apitalist tensions7 many o w!i$! we"e mainly symptoms o t!e a" g"eate" intelle$tual7 politi$al7 an' e$onomi$ p"oblems t!at plague' t!e wo"l' be o"e 1917Lan' still e0ist. 2!ate8e" t!e o"iginal intention7
US inte"8entions $an lea' to open(en'e' $ommitments in bot!
'u"ation an' e o"t.
,!ey may last a s!o"t time7 an' usually 'o7 but un o"eseen e8ents $an $ause t!e Unite' States to spen' a" mo"e "esou"$es t!an it o"iginally anti$ipate'7 $ausing it in t!e name o its $"e'ibility7
S!oul' t!e Unite' States $on "ont e8en some o t!e o"ty o" mo"e nations t!at now !a8e te""o"ist netwo"=s7 t!en it will in one manne" o" anot!e" inte"8ene e8e"yw!e"e7 but espe$ially in 3 "i$a an' t!e 1i''le /ast. ,!e $onseBuen$es o su$! $ommitments will be unp"e'i$table. ,!e Unite' States !as mo"e
o" some ot!e" 'o$t"ine7 to get into 'isast"ous situations t!at in t!e en' 'e eat t!e Unite' States. Fietnam is t!e lea'ing e0ample o t!is ten'en$y7 but ?"aB7 !owe8e" 'i e"ent in 'eg"ee7 is t!e same in =in'. 'ete"mine' an' p"obably mo"e nume"ous enemies to'ay t!an at any time7 an' many o t!ose w!o !ate it a"e "ea'y an' able to in li$t 'est"u$tion on its s!o"es. ?ts inte"8entions o ten t"iump!e' in t!e pu"ely milita"y sense7 w!i$! is
. ?ts 8i"tually instin$ti8e a$ti8ist mentality !as $ause' it to get into situations w!e"e it o ten !a' no inte"ests7 mu$! less 'u"able solutions to a nationCs p"oblems7 "epeate'ly $"eating 'isaste"s an' en'u"ing enmities. ,!e Unite' States !as powe" wit!out wis'om an' $annot7 'espite its "epeate' e0pe"ien$es7 "e$ogni+e t!e limits o its ult"asop!isti$ate' milita"y te$!nology. ,!e "esult !as been olly an' !at"e'7 w!i$! is a "e$ipe o" 'isaste"s. Septembe" 11 $on i"me' t!at7 an' wa" !as $ome to its s!o"es. ,!at t!e Unite' States en' its sel (appointe' global mission o "egulating all p"oblems7 w!e"e8e"7 w!ene8e"7 o" !owe8e" it wis!es to 'o so7 is an essential p"e$on'ition o stemming7 mu$! less "e8e"sing7 t!e a$$umulate' 'ete"io"ation o wo"l' a ai"s an' wa"s. 2e s!oul' not igno"e t!e $ountless et!i$al an' ot!e" "easons it !as no mo"e "ig!t o" $apa$ity to 'o so t!an any state o8e" t!e past
all t!e .entagon wo""ies about7 but in all too many $ases t!ey !a8e been politi$al ailu"es an' e8entually le' to g"eate" US milita"y an' politi$al in8ol8ement $entu"y7 w!ate8e" Austi i$ations t!ey e8o=e'. ,!e p"oblems7 as t!e !isto"y o t!e past $entu"y s!ows7 a"e mu$! g"eate" t!an t!e US "ole in t!e wo"l'4 but at t!e p"esent time its a$tions a"e 'e$isi8e7 an' w!et!e" t!e"e is 2a" o" pea$e will be 'e$i'e' a" mo"e o ten in 2as!ington t!an any ot!e" pla$e. Ultimately7 t!e"e will not be pea$e in t!e wo"l' unless all nations "elinBuis! wa" as an inst"ument o poli$y7 not only be$ause o et!i$al o" mo"al "easoning
3 p"e$on'ition o pea$e is o" nations not to attempt to impose t!ei" 8isions on ot!e"s7 a'Au'i$ate t!ei" 'i e"en$es7 an' ne8e" to assume t!at t!ei" nee' o" t!e e$onomi$ o" st"ategi$ "esou"$es o anot!e" $ount"y wa""ants inte" e"en$e o any so"t in its inte"nal a ai"s. #ut Septembe" 11 p"o8e' t!at a te" a !al ($entu"y o inte"8entions t!e Unite' States !as manage' to p"o8o=e in$"easing !at"e'. ?t !as aile' abysmally to b"ing pea$e an' se$u"ity to t!e wo"l'. ?ts "ole as a "ogue supe"powe" an' its p"omis$uous7 $yni$al inte"8entionism !as been spe$ta$ula"ly unsu$$ess ul7 e8en on its own te"ms. ?t
but be$ause wa"s !a8e be$ome 'ea'lie" an' mo"e 'est"u$ti8e o so$ial institutions. is sBuan'e"ing 8ast e$onomi$ "esou"$es7 an' it !as now en'ange"e' t!e p!ysi$al se$u"ity o 3me"i$ans at !ome. ,o en' t!e 'amage t!e Unite' States $auses ab"oa' is also to ul ill t!e "esponsibilities t!at US politi$ians !a8e to t!ei" own people. #ut t!e"e is not t!e slig!test sign at t!is point t!at 8ote"s will $all t!em to a$$ount7 an' neit!e" t!e 31e"i$an population no" its politi$al lea'e"s a"e li=ely to ag"ee to 6i$! a"("ea$!ing $!anges in o"eign poli$y. ,!e issues a"e a" too g"a8e to wait o" US attitu'es an' its politi$al p"o$ess to be t"ans o"me'.
,!e wo"l' will be sa e" to t!e e0tent t!at US allian$es a"e 'issol8e' an' it is
isolate'7 an' t!at is !appening
o" many "easons7 "anging "om t!e unilate"alism7 !ub"is7 an' p"eempto"y style o t!e #us! a'minist"ation to t!e a$t t!at sin$e t!e 'emise o $ommunism7 t!e wo"l'Cs politi$al alignments !a8e $!ange' '"amati$ally. 5ommunism an' as$ism we"e bot! out$omes o t!e atal e""o"s in t!e inte"national o"'e" an' a ai"s o states t!at 2o"l' 2a" ? spawne'. ?n pa"t7 t!e So8iet systemCs 'isinteg"ation was t!e "esult o t!e a$t it was t!e abe""ant $onseBuen$e o a 'est"u$ti8e an' abno"mal wa"7 117<Dt at least as impo"tant was its lea'e"sC loss o $on i'en$e in so$ialism. 3n' sui$i'al 1uslims a"e7 to a g"eat e0tent7 t!e out$ome o a !al ($entu"y o US inte" e"en$e in t!e 1i''le /ast an' ?slami$ wo"l'7 w!i$! "a'i$ali+e' so many young men an' women "ea'y to 'ie o" ait!. >ust as t!e wa"s o 1914(1918 an' 1939(194* $"eate' #ols!e8i=s7 t!e "epeate' g"a8e e""o"s o t!e Unite' States7 !owe8e" 'i e"ent t!e $onte0t o" times7 !a8e p"o'u$e' t!ei" own abno"mal7 negati8e "ea$tions. ,!e twenty( i"st $entu"y !as begun 8e"y ba'ly be$ause t!e Unite' States $ontinues wit! its agg"essi8e poli$ies. ,!ey a"e a" mo"e 'ange"ous t!an t!ose o t!e twentiet! $entu"y. ,!e 'est"u$ti8e potential o weapon"y !as in$"ease' e0ponentially7 an' many mo"e people an' nations !a8e a$$ess to it. 2!at woul' on$e !a8e been $onsi'e"e' "elati8ely mino" o"eign poli$y p"oblems now !a8e potentially a" g"eate" $onseBuen$es. ?t all augu"s 8e"y ba'ly. ,!e wo"l' !as "ea$!e' t!e most 'ange"ous point in "e$ent7 o" pe"!aps all o 7 !isto"y. ,!e"e a"e t!"eats o wa" an' instability unli=e anyt!ing t!at p"e8aile' w!en a So8iet(le' blo$ e0iste'. /8en i t!e Unite' States abstains "om inte" e"en$e an' tailo"s its a$tions to it t!is t"ouble' "eality7 t!e"e will be se"ious p"oblems t!"oug!out mu$! o t!e wo"l'. ?nte"ne$ine $i8il $on li$ts will $ontinue7 as well as wa"s between nations a"me' wit! an in$"easing 8a"iety o mu$! mo"e 'est"u$ti8e weapons a8ailable "om outsi'e powe"s7 o w!i$! t!e Unite' States "emains7 by a"7 t!e most impo"tant sou"$e. 1any o t!ese $on li$ts !a8e in'epen'ent "oots7 an' bot! p"in$iples an' e0pe"ien$es Austi y t!e Unite' States staying out o t!em an' lea8ing t!e wo"l' alone. #ot! t!e 3me"i$an people an' t!ose in8ol8e' 'i"e$tly will be a" bette" o wit!out o"eign inte" e"en$e7 w!ate8e" nation attempts it.
US
M5ontinue'( wit! no te0te' "emo8e'N[
lea'e"s a"e not $"eating pea$e o" se$u"ity at !ome o" stability ab"oa'. ,!e "e8e"se is t!e $ase4 its inte"8entions !a8e been $ounte"p"o'u$ti8e7 an' its o"eign poli$y is a 'isaste". 3me"i$ans an' t!ose people w!o a"e t!e obAe$ts o su$$essi8e a'minist"ationsC e o"ts woul' be a" bette" o i t!e Unite' States 'i' 46

will in li$t wa"s an' tu"moil on many nations as well as on its own people. 3n' it will ail yet again7 o"
not!ing7 $lose' its bases o8e"seas an' wit!'"ew its leets e8e"yw!e"e7 an' allowe' t!e "est o wo"l' to in' its own way. 5ommunism is 'ea'7 an' /u"ope an' >apan a"e powe" ul an' bot! $an an' will ta=e $a"e o t!ei" own inte"ests. ,!e Unite' States must a'apt to t!ese a$ts. #ut i it $ontinues as it !as o8e" t!e past !al ($entu"y7 attempting to satis y its 8ainglo"ious but i""ational ambition to "un t!e wo"l'7 t!en t!e"e will be e8en 'eepe" $"ises an' it
all states t!at !a8e gone to wa" o8e" t!e past $entu"ies !a8e not a$!ie8e' t!e obAe$ti8es o" w!i$! t!ey sa$"i i$e' so mu$! bloo'7 passion7 an' "esou"$es. ,!ey !a8e only p"o'u$e' en'less mise"y an' up!ea8als o e8e"y =in'.
47
708 Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)

Heg cause pro'i)
6e&er e% a' 0" ."o esso" o
.oliti$al S$ien$e an' Di"e$to" o t!e ?nstitute o" ?nte"national Stu'ies at t!e Uni8e"sity o 5ali o"nia(#e"=eley :Ste8en wit! %aa+neen #a"ma7 1att!ew )"oenig7 an' /ly 6atne"7 .!.D. 5an'i'ates at t!e Uni8e"sity o 5ali o"nia(#e"=eley an' 6esea"$! -ellows at its %ew /"a -o"eign .oli$y 5ente"7 MHHow &lobali+ation 2ent #a'7I -o"eign .oli$y7 ?ssue 1*87 >anua"y;-eb"ua"y7<
states t"y to balan$e powe". ,!ey p"ote$t t!emsel8es by Aoining g"oups t!at $an !ol' a !egemoni$ ?n to'ayCs unipola" wo"l'7 e8e"y nation "om Fene+uela to %o"t! )o"ea is loo=ing o" a way to $onst"ain 3me"i$an powe". #ut in t!e unipola" wo"l'7 itCs !a"'e" o" states to Aoin toget!e" to 'o t!at . So t!ey tu"n to ot!e" means. ,!ey play a 'i e"ent game. Hamas7 ?"an7 Somalia7 %o"t! )o"ea7 an' Fene+uela a"e not going to be$ome allies anytime soon. /a$! is bette" o in'ing ot!e" ways to ma=e li e mo"e 'i i$ult o" 2as!ington. &oing nu$lea" is one way. 5ounte" eiting U.S. $u""en$y is anot!e". 6aising un$e"tainty about oil supplies is pe"!aps t!e most ob8ious met!o' o all. He"eCs t!e impo"tant 'ownsi'e o unipola" globali+ation . ?n a wo"l' wit! multiple g"eat powe"s7 many o t!ese t!"eats woul' be less t"oublesome. ,!e "elati8ely wea= states woul' !a8e a $!oi$e among potential pa"tne"s wit! w!i$! to ally7 en!an$ing t!ei" in luen$e. 2it!out t!at mo"e att"a$ti8e $!oi$e7 a$ilitating t!e 'a"= si'e o globali+ation be$omes t!e most e e$ti8e means o $onst"aining 3me"i$an powe". SH36?%& &@O#3@?O3,?O%CS #U6D/% ,!e wo"l' is paying a !ea8y p"i$e o" t!e instability $"eate' by t!e $ombination o globali+ation an' unipola"ity7 an' t!e Unite' States is bea"ing most o t!e bu"'en. 5onsi'e" t!e $ase o nu$lea" p"oli e"ation. ,!e"eCs e e$ti8ely a ma"=et out t!e"e o" p"oli e"ation7 wit! its own supply :states willing to s!a"e nu$lea" te$!nology< an' 'eman' :states t!at ba'ly want a nu$lea" weapon<. ,!e o8e"lap o unipola"ity wit! globali+ation "at$!ets up bot! t!e supply an' 'eman'7 to t!e 'et"iment o U.S. national se$u"ity. ?t !as be$ome as!ionable7 in t!e wa=e o t!e ?"aB wa"7 to $omment on t!e limits o $on8entional milita"y o"$e. #ut mu$! o t!is analysis is o8e"blown. ,!e Unite' States may not be able to
30iom 3 is a sto"y about t!e p"e e""e' st"ategies o t!e wea=. ?tCs a basi$ insig!t o inte"national "elations t!at t!"eat at bay. #ut w!at i t!e"e is no 8iable g"oup to AoinJ stabili+e an' "ebuil' ?"aB. #ut t!at 'oesnCt matte" mu$! "om t!e pe"spe$ti8e o a go8e"nment t!at t!in=s t!e .entagon !as it in its sig!ts. ?n ,e!"an7 .yongyang7 an' many ot!e" $apitals7 in$lu'ing #eiAing7 t!e bottom line is
%o $ount"y in t!e wo"l' $an '"eam o $!allenging U.S. $on8entional milita"y powe". #ut t!ey $an $e"tainly !ope to 'ete" 3me"i$a "om using it . 3n' t!e best 'ete""ent yet in8ente' is t!e t!"eat o nu$lea" "etaliation. #e o"e 19897 states t!at elt t!"eatene' by t!e Unite' States $oul' tu"n to t!e So8iet UnionCs nu$lea" umb"ella o" p"ote$tion. %ow7 t!ey tu"n to people li=e 3.\. )!an. Ha8ing you" own nu$lea" weapon use' to be a lu0u"y. ,o'ay7 it is ast be$oming a ne$essity. %o"t! )o"ea is t!e $lea"est e0ample. -ew $ount"ies !a' it wo"se 'u"ing t!e 5ol' 2a". %o"t! )o"ea was su""oun'e' by eu'ing7 nu$lea" a"me' $ommunist neig!bo"s7 it was o i$ially at wa" wit! its sout!e"n neig!bo"7 an' it sta"e' $ontinuously at tens o t!ousan's o U.S. t"oops on its bo"'e". #ut7 o" 40 yea"s7 %o"t! )o"ea 'i'nCt see= nu$lea" weapons . ?t 'i'nCt nee' to7 be$ause it !a' t!e So8iet nu$lea" umb"ella. 2it!in i8e yea"s o t!e So8iet $ollapse7 !owe8e"7 .yongyang was pus!ing a!ea' ull steam on plutonium "ep"o$essing a$ilities. %o"t! )o"eaCs oun'e"7 )im ?? Sung7 ba"ely lin$!e' w!en o"me" U.S. ."esi'ent #ill 5lintonCs a'minist"ation "ea'ie' wa" plans to st"i=e !is nu$lea" installations p"eempti8ely. ,!at
simple4 ,!e U.S. milita"y $oul'7 wit! $on8entional o"$e7 en' t!ose "egimes tomo""ow i it $!ose to 'o so. b"in=mans!ip pai' o . ,o'ay %o"t! )o"ea is li=ely a nu$lea" powe"7 an' )imCs son "ules t!e $ount"y wit! an i"on ist. 3me"i$aCs $on8entional milita"y st"engt! means a lot less to a nu$lea" %o"t! )o"ea. Sa''am HusseinCs g"eat
pla$e. How woul' t!ings be 'i e"ent in a multipola" wo"l'J -o" sta"te"s7 g"eat powe"s $oul' split t!e Aob o poli$ing p"oli e"ation7 an' e8en $ollabo"ate on some pa"ti$ula"ly !a"' $ases. ?tCs o ten o"gotten now t!at7 'u"ing t!e 5ol' 2a"7 t!e only state Cwit! a toug!e" nonp"oli e"ation poli$y t!an t!e Unite' States was t!e So8iet Union. %ot a single $ount"y t!at !a' a o"mal allian$e wit! 1os$ow e8e" be$ame a nu$lea" powe". ,!e /aste"n blo$ was ull o $ount"ies wit! a'8an$e' te$!nologi$al $apabilities in e8e"y a"ea e0$ept oneL nu$lea" weapons. 1os$ow simply woul'nCt pe"mit it. #ut to'ay we see t!e une8en an' ina'eBuate le8el o e o"t t!at non(supe"powe"s 'e8ote to stopping p"oli e"ation. ,!e
st"ategi$ blun'e" was t!at !e too= too long to get to t!e same /u"opeans 'angle $a""ots at ?"an7 but t!ey a"e unwilling to $onsi'e" se"ious sti$=s. ,!e 5!inese "e use to a'mit t!at t!e"e is a p"oblem. 3n' t!e 6ussians a"e ai'ing ?"anCs nu$lea" ambitions. 2!en pus! $omes to s!o8e7 nonp"oli e"ation to'ay is almost enti"ely 3me"i$aCs bu"'en.
2ro'i)era%ion wi'' &e s'ow

20007 !ttp4;;www.$iaonet.o"g;olA;gAia;gAiaWwinsp"00 .!tml7 a$$esse' 8;11;02 i8e $ount"ies a"e in a position to ma=e nu$lea" weapons rather quickly. 1ost countries that could have acquired nuclear military capability !a8e "e "aine' "om 'oing so. Most countries do not need them. Consider Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. Argentina
)ennet! .oliti$al S$ien$e at U5 #e"=eley7 &eo"getown >ou"nal o ?nte"national 3 ai"s7 81 n17 2inte";Sp"ing
6a'%/7 ."o esso" o
It is now estimated that about twentyX
and Brazil were in the process of moving toward nuclear military capability, and both decided against itwisely I believebecause neither country needs nuclear weapons. South Africa had about half a dozen warheads and decided to destroy them. Pou !a8e to !a8e an a'8e"sa"y against w!om you t!in= you
mig!t !a8e to t!"eaten "etaliation, but most $ount"ies a"e not in t!is position. &e"many 'oes not a$e any se$u"ity t!"eats certainly not any in which a nuclear force would be relevant. ? woul' e0pe$t t!e patte"n o t!e past to be t!e same as t!e patte"n in t!e utu"e , in which one o" two states pe" 'e$a'e g"a'ually 'e8elop nu$lea" weapons.
48
708 Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)

Impac%s empirica''y denied : 13 coun%ries ha;e pro'i)era%ed wi%hou% war
,o'' S. 7 ."o esso" at t!e Uni8e"sity o Fi"ginia7 De$ 307 ,!e i'ea t!at t!e Unite' States s!oul' agg"essi8ely pu"sue nu$lea" nonp"o( $on "onts one in$ont"o8e"tible a$t
Sechser
200#7 H%u$lea" 2eapons7I !ttp4;;www. a$ulty.8i"ginia.e'u;tse$!se";Se$!se"(Haas(2009.p'

li e"ation "ests in pa"t on a wi'esp"ea' belie t!at t!e sp"ea' o nu$lea" weapons woul' 'estabili+e inte"national "elations. #ut t!is pessimisti$ 8iew
4 nu$lea" weapons p"oli e"ate' to t!i"teen states1'u"ing t!e si0 'e$a'es sin$e t!e 'awn o t!e nu$lea" age7yet t!e wo"l' !as not witnesse' a single p"e8enti8e o" p"eempti8e nu$lea" wa"7 a$$i'ental nu$lea" atta$=7 o" instan$e o nu$lea" te""o"ism. 1oti8ate' by t!is st"i=ing obse"8ation7 s$!ola"s =nown as Hp"oli e"ation optimistsI!a8e suggeste' t!at nu$lea" p"oli e"ation may7in a$t7e0e"t a stabili+ing o"$e on inte"national pol( iti$s. ,!ey a"gue t!at nu$lea" states new an' ol' will be !ig!ly moti8ate' to a8oi' ta=ing a$tions t!at mig!t "is= nu$lea" $on li$t. ,!e $o"e o t!e optimists9position is t!at t!e $ost o a nu$lea" wa" woul' be so g"a8e t!at e8en t!e wo"l'9s most "is=(p"one lea'e"s will in' t!emsel8es "elu$tant to "is= ig!ting one. 3s one p"ominent optimist7 )ennet! %. 2alt+7 !as a"gue'7nu$lea" states Bui$=ly "e$ogni+e t!at engaging in agg"essi8e o" "is=y be!a8io" t!at $oul' p"ompt nu$lea" "etaliation is Hob8ious ollyI:Sagan an' 2alt+ 20037 1*4<. #e$ause a nu$lea" $on li$t $oul' pla$e a state9s 8e"y su"8i8al at "is=7national lea'e"s !a8e powe" ul in$enti8es to manage t!ei" a"senals wit! $a"e an' $aution. 1o"eo8e"7 a$$o"'ing to t!is 8iew7e8en a ew nu$lea" weapons $onstitute su$! a powe" ul 'ete""ent to agg"ession t!at t!ey ob8iate t!e nee' o" !ig! le8els o spen'ing on $on8entional a"ms. 3$$o"'ing to t!e optimists7 t!en7 t!e sp"ea' o nu$lea" weapons is li=ely to 'ete" la"ge(s$ale wa"s7 "est"ain $on8entional(a"ms "a$es7 an' p"o'u$e g"eate" inte"national stability.
49
708 Hege ,ood- Democracy

3mpirica''y> democracy promo%ion )ai's %o crea%e rea' democracies
9ose 01K :6i$!a"'7 $!ai" in politi$s at t!e Uni8e"sity o
>S,O6< 3 spe$t"e is !aunting $ontempo"a"y stu'ies o 'emo$"ati+ation4 3be"'een7 HDemo$"ati+ation #a$=wa"'s4 ,!e ."oblem o ,!i"'(2a8e Demo$"a$ies7 #"itis! >ou"nal o .oliti$al S$ien$e7 Fol. 317 %o. 27 3p".7 20017 pp. 331(3*47
$on8entional in luen$es7 su$! as t!e int"o'u$tion o "ee ele$tions7 !a8e not :o" at least7 not yet< $"eate' politi$al "egimes t!at mat$! t!e stan'a"'s o establis!e' 'emo$"a$ies . 2it!in i8e yea"s Samuel Huntington mo8e' "om $!a"a$te"i+ing t!e late twentiet! $entu"y as t!e t!i"' wa8e o 'emo$"ati+ation to p"o$laiming ,!e 5las! o 5i8ili+ations an' t!e 6ema=ing o 2o"l' O"'e".C @a""y Diamon'Cs global "e8iew o De8eloping Demo$"a$y emp!asi+es a g"owing Cgap between ele$to"al an' libe"al 'emo$"a$yC.2 ,!e 2o"l' 1o8ement o" Demo$"a$y p"o$laims t!at its p"ima"y p"io"ity is C'eepening 'emo$"a$y beyon' its ele$to"al o"mC .3 5onst"u$ti8e $"iti$s o t!i"'(wa8e 'emo$"a$ies a"e not wo""ie' about t!e gap between an i'eal 'emo$"a$y an' e0isting polya"$!ies t!at $on$e"ns 6obe"t Da!l. ,!ei" an0ieties o$us on 'aily 8iolations o t!e "ule o law7 $o""uption an' una$$ountable go8e"nment.
*0
708 Hege ,ood- 3conomy

Hegemony causes economic co''apse : curren% economic crisis pro;es
3'and> $ X Senio" -ellow an' Di"e$to" o
3 ewLan' t!e 5ente" on pea$e an' @ibe"ty at t!e ?n'epen'ent ?nstitute7 Di"e$to" o De ense .oli$y Stu'ies at t!e 5ato ?nstitute7 #.3. ?owa State Uni8e"sity7 1.#.3. in /$onomi$s an' .!.D. in .ubli$ .oli$y "om &eo"ge 2as!ington Uni8e"sity7 :?8an7 ,!e ?n'epen'ent ?nstitute7 HHow t!e U.S. /mpi"e 5ont"ibute' to t!e /$onomi$ 5"isisI7 1ay 11 t!7 !ttp4;;www.in'epen'ent.o"g;news"oom;a"ti$le.aspJi'Q2498<
only a ewLp"es$ient $ommentato"s !a8e Buestione' w!et!e" t!e U.S. $an sustain its in o"mal global empi"e in t!e wa=e o t!e most se8e"e e$onomi$ $"isis sin$e 2o"l' 2a" ??. 3n' t!e simultaneous Buagmi"es in ?"aB an' 3 g!anistan a"e lea'ing mo"e an' mo"e opinion lea'e"s an' ta0paye"s to t!is Buestion. #ut t!e U.S. /mpi"e !elpe' $ause t!e melt'own in t!e i"st pla$e. 2a" !as a !isto"y o $ausing inan$ial an' e$onomi$ $alamities . ?t 'oes so 'i"e$tly by almost always $ausing in lationLt!at is7 too mu$! money $!asing too ew goo's. Du"ing wa"time7 go8e"nments usually $omman'ee" "esou"$es "om t!e p"i8ate se$to" into t!e go8e"nment "ealm to un' t!e ig!ting. ,!is a$tion lea8es s!o"tages o "esou"$es to ma=e $onsume" goo's an' t!ei" $omponents7 t!e"e o"e pus!ing p"i$es up. 1a=ing t!ings wo"se7 go8e"nments o ten times p"int money to un' t!e wa"7 t!us a''ing to t!e amount o money $!asing t!e smalle" numbe" o $onsume" goo's. Su$! Hma=e(belie8eI wealt! !as un'e' many U.S. wa"s. -o" e0ample7 t!e 2a" o 1812 !a' two negati8e e e$ts on t!e U.S. inan$ial system. -i"st7 in 18147 t!e e'e"al go8e"nment allowe' state($!a"te"e' ban=s to suspen'
payment in gol' an' sil8e" to t!ei" 'eposito"s. ?n ot!e" wo"'s7 a$$o"'ing ,om >. Di@o"en+o in Hamilton9s 5u"se7 t!e ban=s 'i' not !a8e to !ol' su i$ient gol' an' sil8e" "ese"8es to $o8e" t!ei" loans. ,!is poli$y allowe' t!e ban=s to loan t!e e'e"al go8e"nment mo"e money to ig!t t!e wa". ,!e "esult was an annual in lation "ate o ** pe"$ent in some U.S. $ities. ,!e go8e"nment too= t!is "oute o e0pan'ing $"e'it 'u"ing wa"time be$ause no U.S. $ent"al ban= e0iste' at t!e time. 5ong"ess7 $o""e$tly Buestioning ,!e #an= o t!e Unite' States9 $onstitutionality7 !a' not "enewe' its $!a"te" upon e0pi"ation in 1811. #ut t!e inan$ial tu"moil $ause' by t!e wa" le' to a se$on' pe"ni$ious e e$t on t!e inan$ial systemLt!e "esu""e$tion o t!e ban= in 1817 in t!e o"m o t!e Se$on' #an= o t!e Unite' States. @i=e t!e i"st ban= an' all ot!e" go8e"nment $ent"al ban=s in t!e utu"e7 t!e se$on' ban= loo'e' t!e ma"=et wit! new $"e'it. ?n 18187 t!is le' to e0$essi8e "eal estate spe$ulation an' a $onseBuent bubble. ,!e bubble bu"st 'u"ing t!e .ani$ o 18197 w!i$! was t!e i"st "e$ession in t!e nation9s !isto"y. Soun' amilia"J 3lt!oug! ."esi'ent 3n'"ew >a$=son got "i' o t!e se$on' ban= in t!e 1830s an' t!e U.S. e$onomy gene"ally lou"is!e' wit! a "ee" ban=ing system until 19137 at t!at time yet anot!e" $ent"al ban=Lt!is time t!e -e'e"al 6ese"8e SystemL
2e !a8e seen t!at wa" ultimately $auses t!e $"eation o bot! e$onomi$ p"oblems an' ne a"ious go8e"nment inan$ial institutions t!at $ause t!ose 'i i$ulties. 3n' o $ou"se7 t!e mo'e"n 'ay U.S. /mpi"e also $"eates su$! e$onomi$ mala'ies an' wa"s t!at allow t!ose institutions to w"ea= !a8o$ on t!e e$onomy. ,!e -e' $ause' t!e $u""ent $ollapse in t!e "eal estate $"e'it ma"=et7 w!i$! !as le' to a mo"e gene"al global inan$ial an' e$onomi$ melt'own7 by ea"lie" loo'ing t!e ma"=et wit! e0$ess $"e'it. ,!at money went into "eal estate7 t!us $"eating an a"ti i$ial bubble t!at e8entually $ame $"as!ing 'own in 2008. #ut w!at $ause' t!e -e' to 8astly e0pan' $"e'itJ ,o p"e8ent a potential e$onomi$ $alamity a te" 9;11 an' soot!e Aitte"s su""oun'ing t!e "is=y an' unnee'e' U.S. in8asion o ?"aB7 -e' 5!ai"man 3lan &"eenspan began a se"ies o inte"est "ate $uts t!at 8astly in$"ease' t!e money supply. 3$$o"'ing to ,!omas /. 2oo's7 >". in 1elt'own7 t!e inte"est "ate $uts $ulminate' in t!e e0t"ao"'ina"y poli$y o lowe"ing t!e e'e"al un's "ate
"ose "om t!e as!es. :t!e "ate at w!i$! ban=s len' to one anot!e" o8e"nig!t7 w!i$! usually 'ete"mines ot!e" inte"est "ates< to only one pe"$ent o" an enti"e yea" : "om >une 2003 to >une 2004<. 2oo's notes t!at mo"e money was $"eate' between 2000 an' 2007 t!an in t!e "est o U.S. !isto"y. #en #e"nan=e7 t!en a -e' go8e"no"7 was an a"'ent a'8o$ate o t!is easy money poli$y7 w!i$! as -e' 5!ai"man !e !as $ontinue' as !is solution to an e$onomi$ $"isis !e !elpe' $"eate using t!e same measu"es. O $ou"se7 a$$o"'ing to Osama bin @a'en7 t!e p"ima"y "easons o" t!e 9;11 atta$=s we"e U.S. o$$upation o 1uslim lan's an' U.S. p"opping up o $o""upt 'i$tato"s t!e"e. 3n' t!e in8asion o ?"aB was totally unne$essa"y be$ause t!e"e was ne8e" any $onne$tion between al \ae'a o" t!e 9;11 atta$=s an' Sa''am Hussein7 an' e8en i Sa''am !a' !a' biologi$al7 $!emi$al7 o" e8en nu$lea" weapons7 t!e massi8e U.S. nu$lea" a"senal woul' !a8e li=ely 'ete""e' !im "om
1u$! o t!is e0$ess money en'e' up $"eating t!e "eal estate bubble t!at e8entually $ause' t!e melt'own.
So t!e $ausal a""ow goes "om t!ese impe"ial be!a8io"sLan' blowba$= t!e"e "omLto in$"eases in t!e money supply to p"e8ent "elate' e$onomi$ slow'own7 w!i$! in tu"n $ause' e8en wo"se e8entual inan$ial an' e$onomi$ $alamities. ,!ese may be in'i"e$t e e$ts o empi"e7 but t!ey $annot be igno"e'. &et "i' o t!e o8e"seas empi"e be$ause we $an no longe" a o"' it7 espe$ially w!en it is pa"tly "esponsible o" t!e e$onomi$ 'ist"ess t!at is ma=ing us poo"e".
using t!em on t!e Unite' States.
3conomic Co''apse DoesnD% Cause war

5i''er 2000 :1o""is7 3'Aun$t p"o esso" o 3'minist"ation at U o Ottawa7 ?nte"'is$iplina"y S$ien$e 6e8iews7 8 2* no 4 pg 277< ,!e Buestion may be "e o"mulate'. Do wa"s sp"ing "om a popula" "ea$tion to a su''en e$onomi$ $"isis t!at e0a$e"bates po8e"ty an' g"owing 'ispa"ities in wealt! an' in$omesJ .e"!aps one
$oul' a"gue7 as some s$!ola"s 'o7 t!at it is some '"amati$ e8en o" seBuen$e o su$! e8ents lea'ing to t!e e0a$e"bation o po8e"ty t!at7 in tu"n7 lea's to t!is 'eplo"able 'enouement. ,!is e0ogenous a$to" mig!t a$t as a $atalyst o" a 8iolent "ea$tion on t!e pa"t o t!e people o" on t!e pa"t o t!e politi$al lea'e"s!ip w!o woul' t!en possibly be tempte' to see= a 'i8e"sion by in'ing o"7 i nee' be7 ab"i$ating an enemy an' setting in t"ain t!e p"o$ess lea'ing to
3$$o"'ing to a stu'y un'e" ta=en by 1in0in .ei an' 3"iel 3'esmi= o t!e 5a"negie /n'owment o" ?nte"national .ea$e7 t!e"e woul' not appea" to be any me"it in t!is !ypot!esis. 3 te" stu'ying ninety(t!"ee episo'es o e$onomi$ $"isis in twenty(two $ount"ies in @atin 3me"i$a an' 3sia in t!e yea"s sin$e t!e Se$on' 2o"l' 2a" t!ey $on$lu'e' t!at 4 1u$! o t!e $on8entional wis'om about t!e politi$al impa$t o e$onomi$ $"ises may be w"ong [ ,!e se8e"ity o e$onomi$ $"isisLas measu"e' in te"ms o in lation an' negati8e g"owt!( bo"e no "elations!ip to t!e $ollapse o "egimes :o" in 'emo$"ati$ states7 "a"ely< to an outb"ea= o 8iolen$e[ ?n t!e $ases o 'i$tato"s!ips
wa". an' semi 'emo$"a$ies7 t!e "uling elites "espon'e' to $"ises by in$"easing "ep"ession :t!e"eby using one o"m o 8iolen$e to abo"t anot!e"<.
*1
708 Hege ,ood- 3conomy

0he economy is resi'ien% : no ris< o) a down%urn
Dawson7 US ,"easu"y Deputy Se$"eta"y
o" 5"iti$al ?n "ast"u$tu"e ."ote$tion an' 5omplian$e .oli$y7 1(8( :1i$!ael7 6ema"=s at t!e 5on e"en$e on ."ote$ting t!e -inan$ial Se$to" an' 5ybe" Se$u"ity 6is= 1anagement7 H."ote$ting t!e -inan$ial Se$to" "om ,e""o"ism an' Ot!e" ,!"eats7I !ttp4;;www.ust"eas.go8;p"ess;"eleases;As1091.!tm
,!e 3me"i$an e$onomy is "esilient. O8e" t!e past ew yea"s7 we !a8e seen t!at "esilien$e i"st !an'7 as t!e 3me"i$an e$onomy wit!stoo' a signi i$ant all in eBuity p"i$es7 an e$onomi$ "e$ession7 t!e te""o"ist atta$=s o Septembe" 117 $o"po"ate go8e"nan$e s$an'als7 an' t!e powe" outage o 3ugust 1 4(1*. ,!e"e a"e many "easons o" t!e "esilien$e o t!e 3me"i$an e$onomy. &oo' poli$ies X li=e t!e ."esi'ent9s >obs an' &"owt! ?nitiati8e X playe' an impo"tant pa"t. So !as t!e "esilien$e o t!e 3me"i$an people. One o t!e "easons a"e e$onomy is so "esilient is t!at ou" people a"e so toug!7 so 'ete"mine' to p"ote$t ou" way o li e. @i=e t!e e$onomy as a w!ole7 t!e 3me"i$an inan$ial system is "esilient. -o" e0ample7 t!e inan$ial system pe" o"me' e0t"ao"'ina"ily well 'u"ing t!e powe" outage last 3ugust. 2it! one e0$eption7 t!e bon' an' maAo" eBuities an' utu"es ma"=ets we"e open t!e ne0t 'ay at t!ei" "egula" t"a'ing !ou"s. 1aAo" ma"=et pa"ti$ipants we"e also well p"epa"e'7 !a8ing in8este' in $ontingen$y plans7 p"o$e'u"es7 an' eBuipment su$! as ba$=up powe" gene"ato"s. ,!e U.S. inan$ial se$to" wit!stoo' t!is !isto"i$ powe" outage wit!out any "epo"te' loss o" $o""uption o any $ustome" 'ata. ,!is "esilien$e mitigates t!e e$onomi$ "is=s o te""o"ist atta$=s an' ot!e" 'is"uptions7 bot! to t!e inan$ial system itsel an' to t!e 3me"i$an e$onomy as a w!ole.
-o"tunately7 we a"e sta"ting "om a 8e"y st"ong base.
*2
708 Hege ,ood- 5idd'e 3as% 6ar

Hege Causes 5idd'e 3as% 6ar
2re&'e 2003
:5!"sitop!e" ."eble7 Di"e$to" o -o"eign .oli$y Stu'ies at 53,O an' -o"me" U.S. %a8y O i$e"7 53,O .oli$y 3nalysis7 H3 te" Fi$to"y4 ,owa"' a %ew 1ilita"y .ostu"e in t!e .e"sian &ul I7 p. Online4 !ttp4;;www.$ato.o"g;pubs;pas;pa477.p' <
t!e 1i''le /ast nee' not be stabili+e' by an o8e"w!elming 3me"i$an milita"y p"esen$e. U.S. t"oops p"o8i'e a g"eate" le8el o se$u"ity t!an w!at "egional a$to"s mig!t $!oose to p"o8i'e. ,o t!e e0tent t!at 3me"i$an t"oops !a8e be$ome a lig!tning "o' o" anti(3me"i$an e0t"emists7 !owe8e"7 U.S. t"oops !a8e been a notably 'estabili+ing in luen$e. ?n s!o"t7 t!e"e is a mi''le g"oun' between U.S. !egemony an' total $!aos w!e"ein stability $an e0ist wit!out t!e p"esen$e o t!ousan's o 3me"i$an t"oops an' wit!out gene"ating an anti( 3me"i$an7 anti('emo$"ati$ ba$=las!
On a b"oa'e" le8el7
7'% causes : geography> Is'am> g'o&a'i/a%ion

,o'd&erg $ >e "ey7 an 3tlanti$ national $o""espon'ent7 >anua"y;-eb"ua"y 20097 H3 te" ?"aB7I !ttp4;;www.t!eatlanti$.$om;'o$;200801;gol'be"g(mi'east;2 ,!e #"itis!7 toget!e" wit! t!e -"en$!7 ga8e t!e wo"l' t!e mo'e"n 1i''le /ast. ?n a''ition to manu a$tu"ing t!e $ount"y now $alle' ?"aB7 t!e g"an' 1i''le /ast settlement s!"an= ,u"=ey by t!e mi''le o t!e 1920s to t!e si+e o t!e 3natolian peninsulaD g"ante' w!at a"e now Sy"ia an' @ebanon to t!e -"en$!D an' =ept /gypt un'e" #"itis! $ont"ol. ,!e #"itis! also b"o=e .alestine in two7 $alling its easte"n po"tion ,"ans(>o"'an an' installing a Has!emite p"in$e 7 3b'ulla!7 as its "ule"7 an' at t!e same time p"omising 2este"n .alestine to t!e >ews7 w!ile
implying to t!e 3"abs t!e"e t!at it was t!ei" lan'7 too. 3s t!e !isto"ian Da8i' -"om=in puts it in 3 .ea$e to /n' 3ll .ea$e7 !is 'e initi8e a$$ount o t!e ma$!inations among t!e &"eat .owe"s t!at "esulte' in t!e mo'e"n map o
in an' -"an$e aile' to ensu"e t!at t!e 'ynasties7 t!e states7 an' t!e politi$al system t!at t!ey establis!e' woul' pe"manently en'u"e. O $ou"se7 t!e $u""ent tu"bulen$e in t!e 1i''le /ast is att"ibutable also to a$to"s beyon' t!e mis$al$ulations o bot! t!e !ub"isti$7 seat(o (t!e(pants #us! a'minist"ation an' t!e !ub"isti$7 seat(o (t!e(pants -"en$! an' #"itis! empi"es. 3mong ot!e" t!ings7 t!e"e is t!e $"isis wit!in ?slam7 a "eligion w!ose 'o$t"inal t"iump!alismL1uslims belie8e t!e )o"an to be t!e inal7 aut!o"itati8e wo"' o &o'Lis un'e"mine' 'aily by t!e global balan$e o powe"7 wit! p"e'i$table an' te""ible $onseBuen$es :see4 t!e li e o 1o!amme' 3tta et al.<D an' t!e"e is t!e "elate' an' $ontinuing $"isis o globali+ation7 w!i$! '"i8es people w!o !a8e not yet "e$ei8e' t!e message t!at t!e wo"l' is now lat to in' sola$e an' meaning in t!ei" un'amental et!ni$ an' "eligious i'entities
t!e 1i''le /ast7 t!e "egion be$ame w!at it is to'ay bot! be$ause t!e /u"opean powe"s un'e"too= to "e(s!ape it an' be$ause #"ita
5idd'e 3as% wars donD% esca'a%e- his%ory dispro;es.

Sa%'o)) is t!e 2as!ington ?nstitute9s e0e$uti8e 'i"e$to"7 De$embe" 217 200!7 Ht!e ?"aB stu'y g"oup4 3ssessing its "egional $on$lusions7I !ttp4;;www.was!ingtoninstitute.o"g;template50*.p!pJ5?DQ2*49 ,!e "epo"t9s g"eatest analyti$al leap o ait! is t!e ntion t!at all t!e =ey issues in t!e 1i''le /ast a"e Hine0t"i$ably lin=e'.I ?n t!e past7 it was belie8e' t!at t!e e0po"t o t!e ?"anian "e8olution woul' un'e"mine p"o(2est "egimes t!"oug!out t!e 1i''le /ast7 o" t!at ailu"e to "esol8e t!e ?s"ali .alestine $on li$t woul' spa"= a "egional wa". ,o'ay7 t!e i'ea o lin=age implies t!at Sunni(S!iite 8iolen$e will sp"ea' t!"oug!out t!e "egion. 0he pro&'em wi%h a'' %hese %heories is %ha% %here is no e;idence %o &ac< %hem up . ,o t!e $ont"a"y7 milita"y su$$ess in t!e &ul 'oes not t"anslate into 'iplomati$ su$$ess in t!e 3"ab(?s"aeli a"ena. ,!e 1a'"i' p"o$ess !a' a p"omising opening session7 but w!en it $ame 'own to ba"gaining it "an up against t!e "eality o t!e ?s"eli(.alestine 'i e"en$es. -u"t!e"mo"e7 t!e"e is no e8i'en$e t!at lo$al 'isaste"s t"anslate into "egional 'isaste"s . 3yatola! 6u!olla )!omeini9s ?"an aile' to e0po"t t!e "e8olution 'espite national e o"ts. ,!e"e is no e8i'en$e to suppo" t!e p"oposition t!at ?s"aeli(.alestinian 8iolen$e !as substantial "egional "epe"$ussions7 let alone t!at it $an lea' to "egional wa". ,!e yea"s 2000 to 2003 saw t!e wo"st pe"io' o ?s"aeli .alestinian "elations7 but t!e "egional impli$ation was +e"o. %ot one state t!"eatene' to ig!t ?s"ael7 t!e a"ab st"eet 'i' not "ise to p"otest7 an' no 3"ab "egime9s stability was t!"eatene'. ,!e Unite' states s!oul' not 8iew t!e 1i''le /ast as an o"gani$ unit. ?"aB9s p"oblems a"e p"ima"ily ?"aBi in o"igin an' ?"aBi in solution. ?"an
6obe" alone poses a se"ious $!allenge7 an' t!e ?s"aeli .alestinainan p"oblem is impo"tant to sol8e be$ause it9s t!e "ig!t t!ing to 'o.
*3

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SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

Hege Core- SDI

Hegemony Down....................................................................................................................................................... "

Hege ,ood- .h'i'i/ad..............................................................................................................................................1"

Hege ,ood- 0hayer.................................................................................................................................................1#

Hege ,ood- 1erguson............................................................................................................................................. 1$

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)....................................................................................................................................................20

Hege ,ood- Democracy..........................................................................................................................................22

Hege ,ood- 3conomy............................................................................................................................................. 2

Hege ,ood- 5idd'e 3as% 6ar................................................................................................................................2!

----34%. 5idd'e 3as% 6ar........................................................................................................................................2"

708 Hege *ad- 6ar................................................................................................................................................ 2#

708 Hege *ad- 6ar................................................................................................................................................ 2$

708 Hege *ad- China 6ar.....................................................................................................................................30

708 Hege *ad- 9ussian 6ar..................................................................................................................................30

708 Hege *ad- 0errorism...................................................................................................................................... 32

708 ())shore *a'ancing 1ron%'ine ........................................................................................................................33

Hege *ad- 6ar........................................................................................................................................................3"

Hege *ad- China 6ar.............................................................................................................................................3#

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

----34%. China 6ar.................................................................................................................................................. 3$

Hege *ad- 9ussia 6ar............................................................................................................................................ 0

Hege *ad- 0errorism.............................................................................................................................................. 1

())shore *a'ancing 1ron%'ine................................................................................................................................ 3

708 Hege ,ood- 6ar.............................................................................................................................................. !

708 Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)............................................................................................................................................ #

708 Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)............................................................................................................................................ $

708 Hege ,ood- Democracy.................................................................................................................................. -0

708 Hege ,ood- 3conomy..................................................................................................................................... -1

708 Hege ,ood- 3conomy..................................................................................................................................... -2

708 Hege ,ood- 5idd'e 3as% 6ar........................................................................................................................-3

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

8a"iety o elements in t!e

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

e0plo'ing e'e"al 'e i$its

$oul' ignite "unaway in lation an' un'e"mine t!e 'olla"

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

Hege Down- Se') de)ea%ing 3conomic 2o'icies and 2u&'ic 2ercep%ion

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

Hege Down- 6or'd Hos%i'e %o 7merican @a'ues despi%e (&ama (;er%ures

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

())shore *a'ancing +ow

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

====Hege ,ood==== Hege ,ood- .agan

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

Hege ,ood- .h'i'i/ad

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

Hege ,ood- 0hayer

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

Hege ,ood- 1erguson

SDI 2010 Hegemony Core

Hege ,ood- 2ro'i)

,!e Unite' States !as ma'e t!e p"e8ention o

p"oli e"ation one o its most impo"tant

====Hege ad==== Hege ad- 6ar