Once upon a time, the Big 10 ruled the college football universe.

However, that
time was over a decade ago. While defenders of this league will quickly point to a
22-17 SU regular season mark vs. other BCS teams in'08, the fact of the matter is
that Big 10 teams have combined to go just 9-20 SU in bowl games since '05,
including a horrific 1-6 record last year. Ohio State lost its third straight BCS
Bowl game (although in less humbling fashion) while Penn State was trounced in the
Rose Bowl by USC. Those two teams again enter '09 as the clear choices to reign
supreme in the conference this year and after that it's anyone's guess.

Although Ohio State enters the year as the media's choice to win the league, our
pick is on Penn State, who despite returning just nine starters, have a much more
manageable schedule, including hosting the Buckeyes on 11/7 (beat OSU in Columbus
13-6 LY). There has been a lot of talk this summer about a potential unbeaten
season from the Nittany Lions, who draw four cupcake non-conference opponents all
at home. We point out that PSU was an incredible +124.2 YPG in Big 10 Play last
year, which is 70 yards better than Ohio St. Joe Pa's team opened last year with
four non-conference wins by an avg of 42.75 PPG, including a 45-14 win over Oregon
State, who 2.5 wks later would go on to defeat USC. Their only loss (Iowa) came in
a game which they led 23-14 in the 4Q and were victimized by a pass interference
call on a 3rd and 15 late. This year, they get the Hawkeyes at home in the
conference opener for both. If Penn State is going to lose this year, we feel it
will come the following week at Illinois as the Nittany Lions are just 3-6 L9 Big
10 road openers and lost their last visit to Champaign.

Ohio State plays a much tougher non-conference slate than PSU, including a home
date with USC in Week 2 that will serve as a barometer for both teams. The game
sets up well for the Buckeyes as the Trojans will be starting an inexperienced QB
in a hostile environment. Other than the Penn State game, OSU will be favored in
every game and is a contender for a 4th straight BCS Bowl.

Despite suffering a major loss in RB Shonn Greene, Iowa should once again be a
contender and potentially play in a New Year's Day bowl. However, they must travel
to both Penn State and Ohio State. They have 14 returning starters and their four
losses LY came by a combined 12 points, so look out. Illinois is the darkhorse of
the league, although they open up conference play with the two main contenders.
After that, it could be clear sailing with the exception of a weekday non-
conference game with Big East champ Cincinnati towards the end of the season. The
Illini were +85 YPG in conf play last year, a number topped by only Penn State.

After that, the rest of the Big 10 teams are mediocre at best. Michigan State was
outgained in league play LY despite a 6-2 record and got crushed by Penn St/Ohio
State by a combined 69 points. This year, they avoid the Buckeyes, have 15 ret
starters and could be Dantonio's best team yet. Meanwhile, things could not go
worse for in-state rival Michigan than they did in Rich Rodriguez's first year in
Ann Arbor, where the Wolverines went 3-9 SU and missed making a bowl game for the
first time in 33 seasons. The Maize and Blue will improve simply based on the fact
that they have a year of Rich-Rod's system under their belt and a QB that fits the
system. Wisconsin avoids Penn State and could be 5-0 heading into the Ohio State
game. Minnesota always starts strong and finishes poorly. This year's schedule is
difficult with Air Force and Cal on the non-conference slate and three of the
final six games are road trips to Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa. Northwestern
went unbeaten in non-conf play LY for the first time since '63 and avoid both
Michigan and Ohio State this year. Purdue begins the post Joe Tiller era in West
Lafayette, so who knows what to expect. As always, we know what to expect from
Indiana and that's a last place finish.