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Copy Test Report

Kip and Mike Ad
2016 U.S. Senate Campaign

Paul Carl Gerhardt, III

MC 3510: Political Communications Research
C. York
13 December 2013
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Campaign Context

Holden has served for 31 years in a variety of offices in both local and state
government. During that time, he has developed sizable political clout and name
recognition in the Baton Rouge area. Holden was elected Mayor-President of East Baton
Rouge Parish in 2004, unseating Republican incumbent Bobby Simpson. Holden is the first
African American Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish and was elected with a
strong African American base as well as a coalition of business interests, namely Bernhard
Shaw of the Shaw Group, the only Fortune 500 company headquartered in Baton Rouge,
(The Shaw Group has since been bought for $3 billion by Chicago Bridge and Iron
Company). Holden has a successful electoral history, winning both of his State
Representative reelections by 54 points and Mayoral reelections by 42 and 20 points.

Holden has a sound record of economic development and as Mayor-President has
focused on courting businesses to invest in Baton Rouge. Holden outlined his plan for
development in Baton Rouge in a plan adopted by the city in 2011, which calls for housing
revitalization and significant infrastructure investment. Holdens record of economic
development and support from Baton Rouge business interests seems to have expanded his
political supporters to include some independents and Republicans, which is suggested by
his success in the 2012 East Baton Rouge Mayoral elections, in which Holden earned a 26
point advantage over Republican Mike Walker.

While Holden has steered clear of the contentious social issues in a socially
conservative southern state, Holden is a coalition member of Mayors Against Illegal Guns,
a group founded by northeastern mayors Michael Bloomberg of New York City and
Thomas Menino of Boston.

In a 2016 Louisiana Senate election against Holden, incumbent Republican Senator
David Vitter needs to secure support from independents and moderate Republicans, who
have recently supported Holden in East Baton Rouge Parish.

Ad Development

Ted Brader (2006) of the University of Michigan found that negative ads with fear
cues, which are defined as negative ads that contain tense, discordant music and grainy,
black-and-white pictures of violence and drug use, are particularly successful in focusing
viewer attention on the issues presented in the ad and decreasing the influence of prior
candidate preferences.

Considering the need for Vitter to secure support from previous Holden supporters
and Braders findings, I developed a negative ad targeting Holden for his membership in
Mayors Against Illegal Guns and connection to Michael Bloomberg. The ad features a
series of still photos of Holden, Bloomberg, and a Mayors Against Illegal Guns rally with
the color dramatically desaturated and a voiceover that claims that Holden is more
interested in representing the interests of the wealthy, liberal east-coast politicians than the
average Louisiana voter. I also used discordant background music as a fear cue. By using
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fear cues, the ad was designed to decrease the influence of prior candidate preferences on
independents and Republicans in East Baton Rouge Parish who supported Holden in his
2012 mayoral election.

Development of the ad was greatly influenced by the 30-second ad that ran leading
up to the 2013 Colorado recall elections sponsored by the National Association for Gun
Rights, which linked Colorado State Senator John Morse to Bloomberg.

Though running a negative ad could lead to possible backlash effects against Vitter
(Ridout & Franz, 2011), Vitters status as an incumbent gives him the advantage of having
an image that is generally firm (Jacobson, 2008).

Based on existing research, I hypothesize the following effects of exposure to the
negative ad with fear cues targeting Kip Holden:

H1a: Democrats will hold more positive attitudes towards Holden after viewing the ad. (Attitudes)
H1b: Republicans will hold more negative attitudes towards Holden after viewing the ad. (Attitudes)
H1c: Independents will hold more negative attitudes towards Holden after viewing the ad. (Attitudes)

H2a: Democrats will perceive Holden as more competent after viewing the ad. (Traits)
H2b: Republicans will perceive Holden as less competent after viewing the ad. (Traits)
H2c: Independents will perceive Holden as less competent after viewing the ad. (Traits)

H3a: Democrats will be more likely to vote for Holden after viewing the ad. (Voting)
H3b: Republicans will be less likely to vote for Holden after viewing the ad. (Voting)
H3c: Independents will be less likely to vote for Holden after viewing the ad. (Voting)

Method

Sample- In order to test the effects of the negative ad with fear cues targeting Kip
Holden, entitled Kip and Mike, I inserted the ad in a Qualtrics survey. The survey was
distributed using a non-random, convenience-sample consisting of family and friends (n =
31).

Measures- The Qualtrics survey distributed contained several types of survey
measures intended to assess respondents attitudes toward Holden, perceptions of Holdens
competence, and likelihood for voting for Democrat Kip Holden in a 2016 U.S. Senate
election against incumbent Republican Senator David Vitter.

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Respondents attitudes toward Holden were assessed through a 100-point feeling
thermometer in which a score of 0 represents negative attitudes and a score of 100
represents positive attitudes.

Respondents perception of Holdens competence was assessed through a 6-point Likert
scale in which strong beliefs in Holdens competence was recorded with a value of 6 and
strong disbeliefs in Holdens competence was recorded with a value of 1.

Respondents likelihood for voting for Kip Holden in a 2016 U.S. Senate election against
David Vitter was assessed through a 100-point scale, similar to the feeling thermometer
used previously, in which a score of 0 represents low likelihood for voting for Holden and a
score of 100 represents a high likelihood for voting for Holden.

Procedure and Analysis- Respondents were asked a set of questions, including the
ones above, before exposure the ad. After completing the questions, a hyperlink in the
survey directed respondents to the ad, which was hosted on YouTube. After exposure to the
ad, respondents were asked to affirm exposure to the ad and then were asked the same set of
questions that they were asked before exposure the ad. The respondents were then asked a
general block of sociodemographic information (gender, age, ethnicity, etc.) and
subsequently thanked for their participation and then dismissed.

To analyze the data collected from the survey, I used controlled means comparison
analyses in which respondents political party identification served as the independent
variable and respondents attitudes toward Holden, perception of Holdens competence, and
likelihood for voting for Holden in a 2016 U.S. Senate election against David Vitter served as
dependent variables. This allowed me to measure the effects of exposure to Kip and Mike
while allowing me to control for respondents political party identification.

Results

Attitudes- As shown in Table 1 and Chart 1, attitudes towards Holden were more
positive after exposure to the ad (M=89.00, sd=12.52) than before (M=53.13, sd=22.13)
among Democrats, supporting H1a. Attitudes towards Holden were more negative after
exposure to the ad (M=36.60, sd=26.82) than before (M=47.35, sd=22.13) among
Republicans, supporting H1b. Attitudes towards Holden were more negative after exposure
to the ad (M=42.00, sd=21.16) than before (M=46.33, sd=6.43) among independents,
supporting H1c.
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Perception of Holdens Competence- As shown in Table 2 and Chart 2, perception
of Holdens competence was stronger after exposure to the ad (M=4.75, sd=.71) than before
(M=4.50, sd=.54) among Democrats, supporting H2a. Perception of Holdens competence
was weaker after exposure to the ad (M=3.05, sd=1.32) than before (M=3.35, sd=1.31)
among Republicans, supporting H2b. Perception of Holdens competence was the same
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Effect of viewing Negative Boluen Au on Attituues Towaiu Boluen, By Paity IB

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after exposure to the ad (M=3.67, sd=.58) as before (M=3.67, sd=.58) among independents,
rejecting H2c.



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Likelihood for Voting for Holden in a 2016 U.S. Senate election against Vitter- As
shown in Table 3 and Chart 3, likelihood for voting for Holden was higher after exposure to
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Effect of viewing Negative Boluen Au on Peiception of Competency of Boluen, By Paity IB

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the ad (M=93.25, sd=8.63) than before (M=80.50, sd=22.92) among Democrats, supporting
H3a. Likelihood for voting for Holden was slightly higher after exposure to the ad (M=25.55,
sd=26.50) than before (M=25.30, sd=25.60) among Republicans, rejecting H3b. Likelihood
for voting for Holden was higher after exposure to the ad (M=23.67, sd=24.00) than before
(M=20.33, sd=11.06) among independents, rejecting H3c.



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Effect of viewing Negative Boluen Au on Likelihoou to vote foi Boluen, By Paity IB

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Conclusion

The copy test Kip and Mike suggests that the ad would have mixed results. The ad
was successful in building negative attitudes towards Holden among Republicans and
independents, shown by the support of H1b and H1c. The ad lead to more positive attitudes
of Holden among Democrats, shown by the support of H1a. The ad was also successful in
lowering the perception of Holdens competence among Republicans, shown by the support
of H2b. The ad was unsuccessful, however, in lowering the perception of Holdens
competence among independents, shown by the rejection of H2c. The ad increased
perception of Holdens competency among Democrats, shown by the support of H1a.

Interestingly, despite being successful in building negative attitudes towards Holden
among Republicans and independents, the ad did not lower the likelihood for Republicans
and independents to support Holden in a U.S. Senate election against Vitter, shown by the
rejection of H3b and H3c. In fact, the ad lead to an increase of voter likelihood among
Republicans and independents, though likelihood of support among these groups remained
fairly low. The ad also increased likelihood of voting for Holden among Democrats, shown
by the support of H3a. This finding suggests that before exposure to the ad, Republicans
and independents did not intend support Holden in a U.S. Senate election against Vitter but
maintained moderate attitudes towards Holden. Exposure to the ad, while not decreasing
levels of support for Holden, certainly polarized attitudes towards Holden.

Recommendations: With Vitters status as a fairly popular incumbent, I would hold
off on running the ad in the current political climate. There is no reason to run a negative ad
early in the campaign. I would, however, consider producing a positive Vitter ad with
enthusiasm cues in order to increase support for Vitter among Republicans and
independents in order to strengthen Vitters base (Brader, 2006).

Moving forward, I suggest paying close attention to polls leading up to the election.
If Holden is able to begin gaining support among independents and moderate Republicans,
especially in Baton Rouge, I would field test Kip and Mike in a small parish. If the ad is
shown to be effective, I would run the ad statewide, with emphasis in the Baton Rouge area.














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References
Brader, T. (2006). Campaigning for hearts and minds: How emotional appeals in political ads work.
Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Jacobson, G. C. (2008). The politics of congressional elections (7th ed.). New York:
Pearson/Longman.
Ridout, T. N., & Franz, M. M. (2011). The persuasive power of campaign advertising.
Philadelphia: Temple University Press.