2008 migration status

(Source data: CIA World Fact Book)

‘Comment’

The ‘Tidal Drift’ Effect of Migration Due To

Environmental Changes
 The ‘tidal drift’ effect of migration due to environmental changes
Throughout history migration has been a fact of life for many people, be it for purposes of
work, conflict1 or environmental reasons. There are also reasons for migration when
environmental stress combines with economic stress; say at a time when general poverty is
exacerbated by drought and poor crop yields. There is also the traditional seasonal migration,
mostly in agriculture, whereby many travel within or over borders to take advantage of crop
harvesting periods, lasting 4 to 6 months, although harvest cycles can be followed for 8
months or more.
Why tidal drift? As much as climate changes will affect the environment, not all of these
changes will be detrimental and there will be some environmental benefits. Where climates
change dramatically and food production becomes difficult, community members will ‘drift’
(voluntarily or encouraged) and relocate to areas where agricultural production is still viable.
Where climate change is beneficial, these areas will also cause ‘drifts’ of migrants to take
advantage of benefits. However, how ‘long-term’ these benefits will be is not known, although
many migrants that are pushed will be pushed towards areas where benefits in agricultural
production are seen and governments may encourage this, in order to avoid further
overburdening the urban areas. Where ‘push’ becomes the operative word is where central
governments have recognised that certain areas are no longer viable for agricultural
proposes, or where water levels are insufficient to meet industrial needs and communities are
pushed out by government decree to force resettlement.
There is no doubt that parts of the globe are altering due to changes in the climate and
especially so where food production has declined sufficiently to cause alarm amongst local
communities. Local communities are well used to tolerating climate changes (drought,
flooding etc) that last a season or two or in some examples, a year or two; but when these
changes start to exceed a time period beyond which it is very difficult to maintain a
reasonable lifestyle; then relocation becomes a viable option within these communities.

(Some of the effects of climate change in Zambia, Africa)

There are many examples where family members have left a home area to gain employment
to [a] relieve a family budget by removing members of that family or [b], by providing extra
income for that family from afar, where part of the earned income is repatriated to the home.
1
A ‘conflict migrant’ differs from one categorised as a ‘conflict refugee’ in that a conflict migrant will
move prior to a conflict outbreak when conflict seems to be likely; whereas a conflict refugee will flee
an area after an outbreak of conflict.

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During the expected climate changes, migration will primarily be affected by the ability of
many rural areas to produce food beyond a point where self-sufficiency is no longer feasible,
although some family members may have already be providing money from employment
opportunities outside of the home area. One reason why agricultural production has fallen in
developing countries is that the old method of ‘slash and burn’ agriculture has had to be
abandoned in favour of ‘modern’ agricultural techniques. Slash and burn agriculture allowed
farmers to cut down bush and burn it and for two or three years plant crops on the cleared
area. After two or three years, the farmers moved to another area and the system was
repeated. Generally the farmers did not return to any previously used land for 15 to 20 years,
allowing recovery of the soil structure and fertility. When ‘modern’ agricultural techniques
were introduced the farmers were encouraged to use hybrid varieties and inorganic fertilisers
repeatedly on the same piece of soil. When modern agriculture was encouraged the farmers
were not told that soil management is crucial to the success of the modern system. Thus,
most soils have no structure and are unable to retain moisture for very long and wind and rain
have now eroded the topsoil to an extent where many topsoils used are of little value to food
producers.
As can be seen from many reports and papers presented, urbanisation is becoming a major
problem in some countries with the majority of new urban dwellers coming from the rural
areas. These may at first be single family members that have migrated for economic reasons,
but are often followed by whole families and thus we have economic environmental migrants,
who, on the whole do not have suitable skills to be able to compete with those that have
resided in the urban areas for some time.
From the rural-urban migration we are seeing conflict issues arise, mostly due to competition
for employment opportunities, racial (or tribal) issues, stress on social services and, as is seen
more and more, conflict over basic food2 supplies. We therefore have potential food producers
migrating to the urban areas, reducing a local capacity to provide basic foods. It is in these
areas where major conflicts will erupt with greater violence as basic resources decline.
The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) (and others) have pointed out in research
documentation that by 2050 there is likely to be 200 million environmental migrants
throughout the world and it can only be assumed that by 2100 this number may increase
many fold; or many would be environmental migrants may perish in famines. IOM’s use of the
term ‘push – pull’ gives a good indication of the effect on communities worldwide, as the
changes become more noticeable.
In ‘Confronting a Rising Tide: A Proposal for a Convention on Climate change Refugees’, by
Bonnie Docherty and Tyler Giannini of the Harvard Law School, face the increasing concern
about those people that will be displaced by the affects of climate change and like many
others face the challenge of defining the status of those that face being displaced. Those that
face displacement because of global climate changes may chose to relocate to avoid the
consequences of change and those that have to flee a particular change situation may be
termed as refugees and thus there may be a need to define the terms ‘migrant or refugee’,
including the many variables involved.
The present estimates of (up to) 200 million people (around 2% of the estimate total
population of the world by 2050) being displaced by climate change by 2050 may be relevant
to known (or projected) consequences, leaving out probabilities due to other consequences.
With poor soil management over many generations there are already many millions that are
(possibly) on the verge of migrating to the urban areas, due to ever declining crop yields and
ever increasing pest and disease infestations. As with some other published documents on the
2
For this purpose ‘basic foods’ includes potable water.

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subject of climate change effects, many fail to take into account the precarious state of
agriculture as it is now in many areas and climate changes can only exacerbate the
immediate situation to a point whereby rural communities are at very high risk of collapsing
and adding to the number of migrants. Poor soil management, loss of soil moisture, loss of
local crop species, extended droughts and also extended rainfall have halved yields in small
scale agriculture (generally known as subsistence farming) and small farmers are already
looking for new opportunities elsewhere, although they are being beaten to the best land sites
by larger farmers. Where once many small farmers were subsistent farmers, they are now
sub-subsistent farmers and the majority of food produced still comes from the small farmers.
Marginal farmers are also a great risk.
Two factors that should be on the timetable of international agencies is land (and soil)
mapping to determine where [a] within continents, it would be most desirable for farming
communities to relocate and [b] how sustainable these areas are likely to be in terms of soil
moisture retention and (maybe more important) the cost of transporting the necessary basic
foods, given the rising costs of fossil fuels. The cost of fuel for transport will become a very
important and often deciding factor in food distribution.
All of those that publish documentation correctly point out some of the legal quandaries
attached to the environmental migrants (or refugees) and these quandaries must be faced at
international level. Otherwise, the consequences of not facing these dilemmas may be
extensive civil conflict involving armed government agencies and massive clashes over
international civil rights laws.
Therefore, there is a need to look at the reasons why people will migrate due to
environmental changes, taking into account the traditional migration of many groups.
Furthermore, it may be worth posing the question of ‘at what point do environmental migrants
become conflict refugees’ and this is posed in the probability that food and potable water
shortages will cause more internal and international conflicts where governments may
respond aggressively. At the present time we see people ‘drifting’ towards urban areas, with
many rural ‘drifters’ abandoning agricultural employment in favour of attempting employment
in industry and manufacturing and the rural / urban drift is already causing severe stress on
social services and resources provision and few (if any) governments (local or central) are
prepared to plan for extensive drifting or are prepared to fund to meet the needs, assuming
that funds would be available.
Part of the urban drift we already see is community and gender related and raises
international issues, but these are not necessarily about migration or if so, can only be termed
as temporary migration. In Africa we see many males relocate to industrial areas in order to
create an income that can (in part) be repatriated to a home area and we now see many more
females moving to urban areas to look for opportunities in the service industries. In Asia we
see many females relocate to urban areas within the domestic service and entertainment
sectors with the same intent as the relocating males, to repatriate some of the earnings to
help out at home. However, most of these are temporary and hardly come under the term of
migrant. Nonetheless, it is foreseen that these temporary relocations will increase and may
also act as a spearhead for other family members to relocate to areas where an original family
member has moved and this then, could come under the term migration.

Although it is apparent that great debate is needed to ascertain a global response to a global
problem, debate is not enough and conclusions must be seen to be fair and implementable
and these must also take into account the need to amend some of the human rights laws, as
recognised by the United Nations. When food production fails communities will relocate

Twofer’s comments
regardless of the civil unrest that they may cause, or be accused of causing and yet the need
to provide food and other basics will override many migrants’ fears of becoming involved in
civil unrest situations. Whether or not conclusions are reached that allow for these situations
to be included in any adjustments to civil rights issues, they should be looked at closely.

Putting forward points for debate:

1 - A Person or family that voluntarily relocates because of actual (but limited) and
perceived environmental changes is still a ‘migrant’ and is likely to be outside of the
law in terms of support, whereas a community that voluntarily relocates may come
under the law.
2 – A person or family that voluntarily relocates because of actual (and significant)
environmental changes is still a migrant, but possibly a partly forced migrant and
probably is not covered by the term refugee. Forced because environmental changes
give no other option other than to relocate and this would equally relate to a given
community.
3 – A migrant that is relocated under a government resettlement scheme may still be a
‘voluntary’ migrant and not a refugee.
4 – Because of regional environmental degradation, a government may either
encourage communities to relocate or if serious enough may force the same
community to relocate within its own boundaries.
5 – The above raises the issue of those that voluntarily relocate across international
borders to seek opportunities making them illegal immigrants and thus outside of any
United Nations convention.
6 – If forced or voluntary relocation is acceptable to governments and international
agencies, issues should be raised regarding the placement of those that are being
relocated. If the relocation of people is to be considered as ‘sustainable’ where are the
acceptable areas for sustainable relocation?
7 – An interesting point is raised regarding one effect of global climate change and this
is where island communities have to relocate where their island is likely to become
submerged due to the rise in sea levels. These communities are therefore refugees
from climate change and should automatically come under the protection and direction
of the United Nations as refugees.
As can be seen from the limited number of points raised, the variables involved in solving
these issue are probably too numerous to consider and yet, they must be considered.
[a] – Some of the above may raise issues as to what is the level of significant
degradation that may force the hands of government to act. Do these come under the
term environmental catastrophe and would these changes be recognised by individual
governments? It may be perceived that a catastrophe is sudden, whereas a level of
significant degradation may be foreseen due to the slower effects of climate change.
Environmental catastrophes may be covered under a United Nations relevant law,
whereas significant degradation due to climate change may not be covered by these
laws.
[b] – If some of the above do raise issues in law (and they should) does the United
Nations take the initiative before individual nations implement their own laws that may
exclude some of the finer points of human rights? And, given the possible number of
people likely to become embroiled in relocating due to environmental changes, what
measures is the United Nations prepared to put in place to safeguard the civil rights of
the people relocating be they forced or voluntary?

Twofer’s comments
 [c] – There is no published set of calculations that can be used to determine at which
point it becomes necessary to relocate communities and in fact, it would be a massive
undertaking to [a] put in place a means of identifying these points, [b] a massive
undertaking to monitor the many places involved and [c], a massive undertaking to
obtain an unbiased analysis of the monitored data and one that most international
agencies will avoid becoming involved with.
[d] – Although legal authorities may debate the legal issues involved and may, in their
own terms come to conclusions, is it likely that any international authority can adopt or
implement the conclusions reached? In terms of humanitarian need it is necessary to
implement something, but, if the legal conclusions are implemented, how will they be
‘policed’ and acted upon? In times of mass environmental crisis, will the United Nations
be able to select any national government to take action against?
[e] – In all likelihood, the United Nations will neither have the power nor motivation or
finances to respond due to the physical number of people likely to be involved.
[f] – Predicting the effects of environmental changes on the communities is a daunting
task and yet, some form of mapping is necessary in order to assist planners to respond.
Scientific prediction mapping regarding the environmental changes probably already
exists (probably also secret) in research institutes, as it seems inconceivable that such
studies have not been put in place.
[g] – Consideration will have to be given to families that will not be able to afford to
voluntarily relocate and these families will be left behind in the initial stages and will
have to await a time when compulsory relocation is decreed by governments.
It seems unlikely that individual rights can be considered within the expanse of solving the
legal rights of environmental migrants / refugees and it may be considered that ‘the
community’ is the worthy recipient of the considerations to be undertaken although these
may consider the individuals rights within a given community.
It may be worth considering approaching the overall issue from both the natural resources /
environmental viewpoint and also the legal viewpoint and noting where the crisis issues are
likely to arise, in the recognition of the fact that it may not be possible to get it right. This in
turn may require a permanent and independent body to act as a source of last resort when
question arise.
So, what are we missing?
It is accepted that it is not possible for research institutions to publish much of the
background information that they gather in order to publish their results and this often leaves
students and other readers wondering how the researches may have reached their
conclusions.
There is also a concern that although the researchers publish a ‘global’ response and even
though it does require an inclusive ‘global’ response, the problems can only be addressed
physically at regional levels.
Unfortunately, those that discuss the moral rights of those that will be affected by a change in
the global climate, mostly fail to take into account the state of the natural resources sector,
being a this sector has and will continue to have a large influence on the overall situation.
Within the complete global climate change scenario are we to expect an increase in
international security issues? Some governments are already attempting to access the
probable level of security threats to their countries and this may involve internal civil unrest,
food security (inclusive of water), international terrorism and physical / environmental threats
to industry and also the potential of a multiple of problems exacerbating threats to national
security. There are already some concerns over the availability of potable water in certain

Twofer’s comments
areas and the potential for conflict over water resources and although none so far have
predicted ‘water wars’ the concerns over water shortages must raise a potential scenario of
‘water conflicts’. Likewise, there are already examples of what has been called as ‘land
grabbing’, whereby governments and private bodies have purchased or leased large areas of
land outside of their own boundaries. Although the Nile Delta is one area prone to permanent
flooding, due to a rise in the level of the sea, much of this delta is still prime agricultural land
and many are interested to gain slices of the land area, possibly displacing many residents.
There are some areas of the world that are known to be suitable for extensive agricultural
production and other areas that will become available in the northern hemisphere, as the
temperature rises and some of these areas are already in the eyes of land grabbers to be able
to commercialise agricultural production on large scale estates, that may dominate food
production and this could become a security issue.
In a document produced by the CNA Corporation, which some may consider overstates the
threats to America, a statement is made by General Charles F. Wald (USAF) Rtd. (page 12) on
climate change in Africa; “My view is that we will be drawn into the politics of Africa, to a
much greater extent than we have in the past.” Taken as an overview, it is probable that all
nations will become more involved in the politics of Africa, as although the African continent is
very much at risk environmentally from climate changes; Africa still contains many of the
natural resources assets much desired by developed countries and climate change puts these
assets at risk and thus a potential economic security threat.
All of these concerns; be they internal civil unrest, food security (inclusive of water),
international terrorism and physical / environmental threats to industry and also the potential
of a multiple of problems exacerbating threats to national security, may involve the voluntary
or forced relocation of communities and may also increase the number of migrants / refugees
having to be relocated. Whatever is thought about the CNA Corporation’s documentation, it
does address many of the issues regionally, which other organisations / agencies seem to
ignore, or seem to ‘publicly’ ignore.
Whatever, it is hoped that those that have started the process of pressing for some clarity
regarding the legal status of environmental migrants and refugees can persuade the United
Nations to be proactive and not wait until they have to be reactive; otherwise great civil
discord will ensue.

Twofer’s comments
 This map shows the percentage of
populations living on less than $1.25
per day and is taken from a
combination of CIA and United Nations
documentation and shows nations
already at risk due to personal
economical problems and combined
with the map showing the percentage
of those undernourished, starts to
highlight areas where populations may
start to drift to seek improvements in
their lifestyles; including food security,
water availability, employment
opportunity and social services
availability.

Together, the maps shown may start

to highlight some of the problems that
planners may face due to at risk
communities having to relocate in
order to follow declining natural
resources or income generation
Percentage of undernourished
opportunities.
(Source data: CIA World fact Book)

Of crucial interest to planners will be

the availability of water sources and
this map shows the areas where there
are existing water scarcity concerns
and ‘hot spots’ likely to produce
migrants.

Water scarcity map

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 This map shows the potential trend in
migration and highlights the areas
(yellow) where communities are
expected to move from, to areas
(blue) that may expect to become
relocation areas.
(Source data: CIA World fact Book)

Given the information currently universally available it should be possible to predict areas that
are most at risk from community drift and it should also be possible to determine where
drifting communities could be directed towards. The alternative is to ignore the plight of at
risk communities and leave natural selection to take its toll on these communities and most
would agree that this would be morally incorrect.
One worry must be the drift towards urban areas, where by 2050, it has been estimated that
some 74% of the global population may reside and this must be of major concern and must be
dealt with. It is not known whether or not governments are opening agricultural land for
resettlement, but it is known that many land reform acts are not working and this should also
be dealt with within the overall climate change scenario.
Given the United Nation’s ability to determine ‘failed states’ in terms of governmental /
political collapse or misdeeds, it should also be possible that the United Nations should be
able to determine ‘failing states’ due to environmental degradation, although this would
involve a large scale ‘in the field’ research and analysis.
Whether or not the researchers consider the ‘global problem’ in terms of ‘regions’ is yet to be
seen and this may be an important factor in considering both the migration and
environmental issues as forecast and that the organisations presently involved predicting
migration trends should be also taking a closer look at the natural resources environmental
concerns that do and will affect the migration trends.

Twofer – August 2009

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References:
– The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) (Switzerland) – Migration Research Series.
– Harvard Environmental Law Review (USA) - Confronting a Rising Tide: A Proposal for a Convention on
Climate change Refugees’, Bonnie Docherty and Tyler Giannini .
– CNA Corporation (Center for Naval Analyses) (USA) – General Charles F. Wald (USAF) Rtd. National
Security and the Threat of Climate Change.
– CIA World Fact Book.
– United Nations statistics.

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