SAVING PEACE IN BOSNIA

MYTHS, CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES

Papers presented at The Lord Byron o!ndat"on#s $%%& 'on(eren'es on the (!t!re o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na he-d "n Toronto, Be-+rade, and .ash"n+ton /0C0

The Lord Byron o!ndat"on (or Ba-1an St!d"es $%2%

THE LOR/ BYRON OUN/ATION OR BAL3AN STU/IES 4as (o!nded 5y the -ate S"r A-(red Sher6an "n 2&&7 as a non)part"san resear'h 'enter de,oted to st!dy"n+ the Ba-1an Pen"ns!-a "n a-- "ts aspe'ts0 The o!ndat"on#s resear'h, p!5-"'at"ons and 'on(eren'es are des"+ned to 'orre't the '!rrent trend o( p!5-"' 'o66entary, 4h"'h tends, syste6at"'a--y, not to !nderstand e,ents 5!t to 'onstr!'t a ,ers"on o( Ba-1an r",a-r"es that ("ts da"-y po-"t"'a- re8!"re6ents0 The o!ndat"on "s na6ed a(ter a +reat .estern poet 4ho +a,e h"s -"(e "n the ("+ht to (ree Ba-1an Chr"st"ans (ro6 Is-a6"' r!-e0 Th"s 'ho"'e re(-e'ts "ts 5e-"e( "n the essent"a- !n"ty o( o!r '","-"*at"on0 The 4or1 o( The Lord Byron o!ndat"on "s 5ased on the a''eptan'e that the 'a!se o( to-eran'e "n a tro!5-ed re+"on 'an ne,er 5e ad,an'ed 5y 6"srepresentat"on or 5y the sent"6enta- -apse o( ser"o!sness that a-- too o(ten 'hara'ter"*es .estern d"s'o!rse on the re+"on0

P!5-"shed "n the Un"ted States 5y The Lord Byron o!ndat"on (or Ba-1an St!d"es Ch"'a+o)Otta4a)London

Copyr"+ht 9 $%2% The Lord Byron o!ndat"on

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Ta5-e o( Contents
Foreword Does Bosnia Need a Second Dayton? Ste,en E0 Meyer A New Bosnian Crisis? =a6es B"ssett Leave the Balkans to the Balkans /o!+ Bando4 A Matter of Princi le! Bosnia and the "# Rona-d L0 Hat'hett A$erica%s Last Balkan Advent&re =a6es Geor+e =atras Fo&rth 'eneration (ar and Balkan Folly ."--"a6 L"nd Sre)renica *'enocide%! +ote$ for New (orld ,rder =ohn La!+h-and -sla$. the (est. and ,rthodo/y Gre+ory /a,"s Afterword: Ca&ses and Le0acy of the Bosnian (ar Srd@a Tr"(1o,"' Appendix: A$erica%s Bosnian (ar S"r A-(red Sher6an A2&&:B < 22 $2 $: >< 7< 7& <: ?: ;% &2

Post)/ayton po-"t"'a- 6ap o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na

Foreword

!r"n+ the 2&&%s, the Ba-1ans er!pted "n ethn"' ,"o-en'e 4"th the d"sso-!t"on o( the (or6er Y!+os-a,"a0 A h!ndred tho!sand peop-e d"ed "n Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na, Y!+os-a,"a#s 'entra- rep!5-"', the s'ene o( three)4ay ("+ht"n+ a6on+ M!s-"6s, Ser5s, and Croats0 The CGenera- ra6e4or1 A+ree6ent (or Pea'e "n Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"naD ne+ot"ated at /ayton, Oh"o, "n 2&&< pro,"ded (or a de'entra-"sed state 'o6pr"sed o( t4o ent"t"es o( ro!+h-y e8!a- s"*eE the M!s-"6)Croat ederat"on and the Rep!5-"' o( Srps1a ARepublika Srpska, RSB, a 6a@or"ty)Ser5"an !n"t0 .h"-e not (!--y sat"s(y"n+ any o( Bosn"a#s three 4arr"n+ nat"ons, the /ayton a+ree6ent pro,"ded ea'h +ro!p 4"th 5as"' se'!r"ty and a 'ons"dera5-e de+ree o( se-() +o,ern6ent0 Under /ayton, there has 5een no res!6pt"on o( host"-"t"es or ser"o!s threat o( rene4ed 5-oodshed0 ree and (a"r e-e't"ons ha,e ta1en p-a'e "n 5oth the ederat"on and the RS0 Bosn"an '"t"*ens -",e, 4or1, and tra,e- (ree-y "n 5oth ent"t"es re+ard-ess o( the"r ethn"'"ty0 Bosn"a) Her*e+o,"na has 5een ad6"tted to the Co!n'"- o( E!rope, has 5een no6"nated (or 6e65ersh"p "n the Un"ted Nat"ons Se'!r"ty Co!n'"-0 or a-- "ts short'o6"n+s, and "n sp"te o( 6any atte6pts to re,"se or re,erse "t, the /ayton a+ree6ent has pro,"ded a p-at(or6 (or pea'e and +rad!apro+ress (or Bosn"a1s AM!s-"6sB, Ser5s, and Croats a-"1e0 Bosn"a#s re-at",e sta5"-"ty 4as !nne'essar"-y threatened "n the spr"n+ o( $%%& 5y po-"t"'a- (or'es "n .ash"n+ton "ntent on rene+"n+ on the de-"'ate 5a-an'e a'h"e,ed at /ayton0 Se'retary o( State H"--ary 5

C-"nton de'-ared she 4as 'o66"tted to 4rapp"n+ !p 4hat she 'a--ed Fthe !n("n"shed 5!s"ness "n the Ba-1ans0# A ser"es o( op)eds and p!5-"' prono!n'e6ents 5y FeGperts# on Ba-1ans a((a"rs, papers 5y U0S0 +o,ern6ent)sponsored NGOs and state6ents 5y Ad6"n"strat"on o(("'"a-s, "n,ar"a5-y ad,o'at"n+ Bosn"a#s !n"tar"*at"on, 4ere (o--o4ed "n May $%%& 5y a non5"nd"n+ Reso-!t"on passed 5y the Ho!se o( Representat",es 'a--"n+ (or Pres"dent O5a6a to appo"nt an A6er"'an spe'"a- en,oy (or the Ba-1ans0 The !nder-y"n+ 6essa+e (ro6 a-8!arters 4as the sa6eE the U0S0 needs to re,"se /ayton "n the d"re't"on o( +reater 'entra-"*at"on o( Bosn"a at the eGpense o( the a!tono6y o( the t4o ent"t"es H 4h"'h "n rea-"ty 4o!-d ad,erse-y a((e't on-y one o( the6, the Bosn"an Ser5 Rep!5-"' ARep!5-"1a Srps1a, RSB0 The press!re es'a-ated "n the se'ond ha-( o( $%%&0 .hen "t 4as ("rst anno!n'ed that the S4ed"sh ore"+n M"n"ster Car- B"-dt and the U0S0 /ep!ty Se'retary o( State =a6es Ste"n5er+ 4o!-d 5e 'o6"n+ to Bosn"a "n O'to5er 4"th a se'ret proposa- (or 'onst"t!t"ona- re(or6, the ne4s 4as hyped "n the .estern 6ed"a and "n Sara@e,o as the "66"nent re6a1"n+ o( /ayton0 E,en the -o'at"on 'hosen (or the ta-1s H a NATO 6"-"tary 5ase at B!t6"r near Sara@e,o H e'hoed the e,ents o( No,e65er 2&&<, 4hen the Bosn"an 4ar 4as ended at .r"+ht)Patterson A"r or'e Base o!ts"de /ayton0 On O'to5er $%)$2 $%%& the representat",es o( se,en po-"t"'apart"es "n Bosn"a (ro6 a-- three s"des 4ere presented 4"th a set o( 'entra-"*"n+ re(or6s that 4ere s!++ested, and (a"-ed 6"sera5-y, (o!r years a+o0 The Ser5s re@e'ted these proposa-s 5e'a!se they 4o!-d ha,e str"pped the6 o( the re6a"n"n+ e-e6ents o( se-()r!-e that 4ere ("rst +!aranteed 5y the /ayton a+ree6ent0 The Bosn"a1s A"0e0 Bosn"an M!s-"6sB, on the other hand, 'o6p-a"ned that the proposed pa'1a+e d"d not +o far enough "n +","n+ the6 'ontro- o( Bosn"a0 The (a"-!re o( th"s atte6pt, one o( 6any, to red!'e the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a to an e6pty she-- de,o"d o( se-()r!-e 4as "ne,"ta5-e0 The 6eet"n+s at B!t6"r 4ere arran+ed hast"-y on the A6er"'an 6

"n"t"at",e "n an ad-hoc (or!6 'o6posed o( po-"t"'"ans 4ho ha,e no 'onst"t!t"ona- po4er or pop!-ar 6andate to 'o66"t the6se-,es to any (!nda6enta- 'han+es, e,en "( they 4anted to do so0 The p!tat",e CB!t6"r Pro'ess,D o( 4h"'h the State /epart6ent 'ont"n!ed ta-1"n+, 4as !tter-y de,o"d o( -e+a-"ty or -e+"t"6a'y0 In rea-"ty there 4as no Cpro'essD at a--0 It 4as s"6p-y another ,ar"ant o( the sa6e 6ade)"n) .ash"n+ton pro+ra6 to 4ea1en and then d"sso-,e the RS "n order to 'reate a M!s-"6)do6"nated !n"tary state0 A reasona5-e o5ser,er 6"+ht hope that a (a"-!re at B!t6"r Aas 6eas!red "n the eyes o( "ts (ore"+n a!thorsB 6"+ht ("na--y 'on,"n'e .ash"n+ton that no arran+e6ents 'an 5e +ood (or Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na as a 4ho-e !n-ess "t "s +ood (or a-- o( "ts three 'onst"t!ent peop-es0 Yet the on-y 4ay to 6a1e an "6pa't on (ore"+n 6edd-ers 4ho re(!se to a--o4 rea-"ty to 5-!r the"r "deo-o+"'a--y "nd!'ed C,"s"onD "s to present the6 4"th a ,"s"5-e and tan+"5-e (a"-!re H the one that 4o!-d 5e '-ear-y re+"stered as s!'h 5oth "n .ash"n+ton and "n Br!sse-s0 As (or A6er"'an o(("'"a-do6 'on'erned 4"th Bosn"a, the reapro5-e6 does not or"+"nate 4"th the peop-e on the +ro!nd0 Not that they are not -"1e-y part o( the pro5-e6I 5!t "ts roots are "n .ash"n+ton, and ha,e 5een (or years0 No .estern a65assador "n the re+"on has e,er tr"ed to 'o!nter the -"ne d"'tated (ro6 .ash"n+ton, B!rsse-s, London or Par"s 4h"-e on d!ty0 E,en "( they say so6eth"n+ d"s'ordant H -"1e (or6er U0S0 A65assador "n Be-+rade ."--"a6 Mont+o6ery d"d re+ard"n+ Bosn"a "n May $%%& Aor Br"ta"n#s Char-es Cra4(ord "n =!-y $%%&B H "t happens years a(ter they -ea,e the"r o(("'"a- posts0 The -ar+er pro5-e6 "s the se-()de(eat"n+ not"on that the U0S0 needs to 5e 5e seen, and perhaps e,en appre'"ated, "n the Is-a6"' 4or-d as the 'ha6p"on o( M!s-"6 "nterests "n E!rope0 The p!sh (or Bosn"a#s C'onst"t!t"ona- re(or6D 4"-- !ndo!5ted-y 'ont"n!e "n the se'ond de'ade o( the $2st 'ent!ry, 4h"'h "s !n(ort!nate0 That p!sh "s a 6a@or o5sta'-e to the -ast"n+ sta5"-"*at"on o( the area 1no4n as .estern Ba-1ans "n +enera-, and o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na "n 7

part"'!-ar0 It "s 5!t a 'ode4ord (or esta5-"sh"n+ 4hat "n e((e't 4hat 4o!-d 5e a M!s-"6)do6"nated !n"tary state H "n a 6a@or"ty)Chr"st"an 'o!ntryJ H and a6o!nt"n+ to the end o( the RS "n (a't "( not "n na6e0 In add"t"on to 5e"n+ 'erta"n to re)"+n"te o-d an"6os"t"es that 'a!sed the 4ar o( 2&&$)2&&<, th"s s'enar"o "s "n'on+r!o!s 4"th the trend to4ards de,o-!t"on, se-()r!-e, and de'entra-"*at"on "n so6e o( the 4or-d#s 6ost sta5-e de6o'ra'"es H (ro6 K!e5e' to the Bas8!e Co!ntry, (ro6 S'ot-and to Cata-on"a0 It "s a-so at odds 4"th the .estern de6and that Ser5"a +rants "ts northern pro,"n'e o( Vo@,od"na the -e,eo( a!tono6y 4h"'h "s (ro4ned !pon 4hen "t "s de6anded (ro6 Ban@a L!1a0 .hate,er the de(e'ts o( /ayton, the essent"a- (a't "s that (or o,er 27 years Bosn"ans and Her*e+o,"n"ans ha,e not 5een 1"--"n+ ea'h other0 Noth"n+ sho!-d 5e done that r"s1s a ne4 'on(rontat"on a6on+ Bosn"a#s 'o66!n"t"es and poss"5-y re"+n"t"n+ the horrors o( the 2&&%s0 ."th a-- that A6er"'a has on "ts p-ate today, at ho6e and a5road, "t "s "-- ad,"sed to tr"++er an opt"ona- 'r"s"s0 .hat "s rea--y "6ped"n+ Bosn"a#s pro+ress "s hea,y)handed "nternat"ona- 5!rea!'ra'y and eG'ess",e (ore"+n 6edd-"n+ "n -o'a- a((a"rs0 S!'h 6edd-"n+ "s detr"6enta- to the spontaneo!s +ro4th o( de6o'rat"' "nst"t!t"ons0 Go"n+ a step 5eyond and "6pos"n+ 'entra-"*at"on 4o!-d 5e a +ross ,"o-at"on o( de6o'ra'y, -a4, and -o+"'0 In the 2&&%s there eG"sted a ya4n"n+ +ap 5et4een the a,o4ed o5@e't",es o( A6er"'a#s (ore"+n and se'!r"ty po-"'y and "ts "6p-e6entat"on 5y B"-- C-"nton#s tea60 No4here 4as th"s d"s'repan'y 6ore apparent than "n the Ba-1ans0 The de'-ared po-"'y 4as pa'1a+ed as a 'o66"t6ent to the pr"n'"p-es o( nat"ona- se-()deter6"nat"on, respe't (or the so,ere"+nty o( states, pro6ot"on o( pea'e and har6ony a6on+st the peop-es o( the re+"on, adheren'e to "nternat"ona- -a4I and !pho-d"n+ 6ora- pr"n'"p-es, rather than C6ereD "nterests, "n 4or-d a((a"rs0

As the 'ontr"5!tors to th"s ,o-!6e are 4e-- a4are, 6any 8!est"ons re+ard"n+ .estern po-"'y "n the Ba-1ans re6a"n !nans4ered a-6ost t4o de'ades a(ter Y!+os-a,"a started !nra,e--"n+0 I( the Un"ted States and the E!ropean Un"on 4ere so (!--y 'o66"tted to the 6ode- o( 6!-t"'!-t!ra- states "n the Ba-1ans, 4hy d"d they 'ondone the d"s6e65er"n+ o( e6"nent-y 6!-t")ethn"', 6!-t"'!-t!ra-, 6!-t") e,eryth"n+ Y!+os-a,"a "n the 2&&%sL E,en today, an o-d 8!est"on re6a"ns !nans4ered 5y the ad,o'ates o( !n"tary Bosn"a -"1e H"--ary C-"nton, R"'hard Ho-5roo1e, and Paddy Ashdo4nE I( Y!+os-a,"a 4as !ntena5-e, and e,ent!a--y 'o--apsed !nder the 4e"+ht o( the s!pposed-y "ns!r6o!nta5-e d"((eren'es a6on+ "ts 'onst"t!ent nat"ons, ho4 'an Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na H the Y!+os-a, 6"'ro'os6 par excellence H de,e-op and s!sta"n the dyna6"'s o( a ,"a5-e po-"ty, -et a-one a 'entra-"*ed and !n"tary stateL I( A6er"'a 4as 4"--"n+ to -et the E!ropeans so-,e the Ba-1an pro5-e6s the6se-,es, 4hy d"d "t 5-o'1 the 2&&$ L"s5on P-an 5ro1ered 5y the E!ropean Un"on, 4h"'h 'o!-d ha,e a,o"ded 'on(-"'t "n Bosn"a e,en 5e(ore the ("rst shot 4as ("red "n Sara@e,oL .hy d"d "t !nder6"ne se,era- s!5se8!ent EU)UN "n"t"at",es, s!'h as the Van'e)O4en P-an and the O4en)Sto-ten5er+ P-an "n 2&&>, 5oth o( 4h"'h 'o!-d ha,e ended the 5-oodshed on ter6s not 6!'h d"((erent (ro6 those d"'tated at /aytonL O5,"o!s-y the de'-ared +oa-s o( A6er"'an po-"'y "n the Ba-1ans 4ere not the a't!a- reasons +!"d"n+ that po-"'y0 Th"s 5oo1 o((ers "ns"+hts "nto the -"1e-y tr!e 6ot",es o( Bosn"a#s 4o!-d)5e 'entra-"*ers 5y se,era- "n(or6ed (ore"+n po-"'y and Ba-1an spe'"a-"sts o( ,ar"o!s 5a'1+ro!nds and areas o( eGpert"se0 They a-- ha,e "n 'o66on the ,"e4 that the Un"ted States does not need to Cre)en+a+eD "n Bosn"a, -et a-one to appo"nt a spe'"a- en,oy0 Bosn"a "s not 6!'h o( a pro5-e6, o!r a!thors a+ree, and "n any e,ent "t "s Europes pro5-e6, not A6er"'a#sE Bosn"a#s (!t!re "s "nte+rat"on 4"th "ts "66ed"ate and re+"ona- ne"+h5ors0 There are 6any respons"5-e E!ropean o(("'"a-s 4ho pr",ate-y ad6"t that they do not 9

4ant .ash"n+ton 'har+"n+ "n and !psett"n+ the app-e'art, espe'"a--y s"n'e they 4o!-d ha,e to 'ope 4"th the 'onse8!en'es0 !rther6ore, 4"th no end "n s"+ht (or A6er"'a#s 6any (ore"+n 8!a+6"res (ro6 Mesopota6"a and H"nd!1!sh to the >;th para--e- and 5eyond, and no end "n s"+ht (or "ts on+o"n+ e'ono6"', ("nan'"a-, and so'"a-)'!-t!rapro5-e6s, the Un"ted States does not ha,e the reso!r'es to po-"'e and s!5s"d"*e yet another step'h"-d Fnat"on)5!"-d"n+# pro@e't0 Th"s 5oo1, 5ased on the papers presented at "nternat"ona'on(eren'es sponsored and or+an"*ed 5y The Lord Byron o!ndat"on "n Toronto, Be-+rade and .ash"n+ton /0C0 "n $%%&, "s presented "n the hope that "t "s st"-- poss"5-e (or e,en)handedness, rea-"s6 and pr!den'e to pre,a"-0 Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na has s!((ered a -ot thro!+h h"story, a-6ost "n,ar"a5-y d!e to so6e d"stant po4ers# a65"t"ons and po-"'"es0 It deser,es to 5e -e(t 4e-- a-one0

Ch"'a+o and Otta4a, e5r!ary $%2%

The Ed"tors

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Does Bosnia Need a *Second Dayton%? Ste,en E0 Meyer2

he "n1 4as hard-y dry on the 2&&< /ayton A''ords 4hen 'a--s 5e+an to s!r(a'e that a se'ond C/ayton Con(eren'eD 4as needed to 'o6p-ete the trans"t"on o( Bosn"a (ro6 a dys(!n't"ona- 4ar)torn 4ard o( the C"nternat"ona- 'o66!n"tyD to a ,"5rant, sta5-e, 6!-t")ethn"', (ree enterpr"se de6o'ra'y0 A-ready "n Septe65er 2&&?, A65assador R"'hard Ho-5roo1e, the pr"6ary ar'h"te't o( the /ayton a+ree6ent, sa"d that a se'ond 'on(eren'e 4as re8!"red to Cstren+thenD these a''ords0 At the tenth ann",ersary o( the A''ords, 4h"-e there 4as 5road se-( 'on+rat!-at"ons at the Cs!''essD o( the /ayton a+ree6ent, 6any o(("'"a-s "n E!rope and the Un"ted States sa4 the need to 'on,ene another /ayton)sty-ed 'on(eren'e to 'onso-"date the C5ene("tsD o( the 2&&< a+ree6ent and to ta1e Bosn"a to the neGt -e,e-0 In Mar'h $%%& the Internat"ona- Cr"s"s Gro!p p!5-"shed an assess6ent o( Bosn"a 4h"'h proposed a ser"es o( s!5stant"are'o66endat"ons that are on'e a+a"n des"+ned to o,er'o6e 'ons"dera5-e res"d!a- pro5-e6s thro!+h e,er t"+hter 'entra- str!'t!res s!pposed-y des"+ned to 5r"n+ Bosn"a "nto the E!ropean (a6"-y o( (!--y (!n't"on"n+ states0

/r0 Ste,en Meyer "s Pro(essor o( Po-"t"'a- S'"en'e at the Ind!str"a- Co--e+e o( the Ar6ed or'es, Nat"ona- /e(ense Un",ers"ty "n .ash"n+ton /0C0

11

The Old Paradigm These are 5!t three t"6e)se8!en'ed eGa6p-es o( (a"r-y 'ons"stent 'a--s, present e,er s"n'e -ate 2&&<, to 'on,ene so6e sort o( /ayton)-"1e 'on(eren'e to C("GD Bosn"a#s ser"o!s, na++"n+ pro5-e6s0 S!'h 'a--s o,er the years ha,e de6onstrated t4o 6a@or pheno6ena0 "rst, they !nders'ore that (a't that the /ayton A''ords o( 2&&< ha,e 5een a (a"-!re "n esta5-"sh"n+ the 'ond"t"ons ne'essary to +!arantee a ,"a5-e, 6odern, de6o'rat"', 6!-t")ethn"', (ree enterpr"se state0 To "ts 'red"t, the /ayton pro'ess d"d 5r"n+ the Bosn"an 4ar to an end0 Ne,erthe-ess, "t has (a"-ed "n "ts e((orts to en+"neer the ne'essary so'"a-, e'ono6"' and po-"t"'a- 'ond"t"ons re8!"red to esta5-"sh a 5road-y a''epted po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"ty0 Most "6portant-y (or Bosn"a, th"s has 6eant that the /ayton pro'ess has 5een tota--y !na5-e to 6e-d the three ethn"' +ro!ps "nto any se65-an'e o( 4hat Bened"'t Anderson has e-o8!ent-y des'r"5ed as the C"6a+"ned 'o66!n"ty0D2 The /ayton A''ords ha,e (a"-ed on t4o 6a@or, spe'"("' po"nts des'r"5ed 5y Anderson0 "rst, the -ar+e 6a@or"ty o( the "nha5"tants o( Bosn"a do not re'o+n"*e that the state "s -"6"tedMthat there are re'o+n"*ed 5orders 5eyond 4h"'h eG"st other, d"((erent states0 And, se'ond, they do not re'o+n"*e that Bosn"a "s so,ere"+nMthat "n -a4 and pra't"'e, Bosn"a 'o"n'"des 4"th the 'o66on-y a''epted 5orders0 P!t s"6p-y, (or too 6any '"t"*ens o( Bosn"a, 5orders and so,ere"+nty do not 'o"n'"de 4"th 4hat the /ayton A''ords de("ne as the state0 The 'a--s o,er the years (or a Cse'ond /aytonD re(-e't the deter6"nat"on and se-()de("ned respons"5"-"ty o( the C"nternat"ona'o66!n"tyD A"n rea-"ty, the U0S0 and se,era- E!ropean 'o!ntr"esB to perpet!ate the pro'ess o( 'ontro- and 6ana+e6ent o( the so'"a-, po-"t"'a- and e'ono6"' pro'ess "n Bosn"a0 Th"s deter6"nat"on 5y a hand(!- o( po4er(!- 'o!ntr"es, 4h"'h are e!phe6"st"'a--y 1no4n as the C"nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty,D "s (o!nded on a trad"t"ona- parad"+6 o( ho4 po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"ty must 5e 'onstr!'ted0 It "s a parad"+6 5!"-t on
2

Bened"'t Anderson0 Imagined Communities: Reflections on the rigins and Spread of !ationalism0 Verso, 2&&20

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("r6 'on,"'t"on that on-y th"s hand(!- o( 6a@or po4ersM5!t, pr"6ar"-y the U0S0Mhas the 1no4-ed+e, 4"sdo6, po4er and 4here4"tha- to deter6"ne ho4 po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"t"es 6!st 5e esta5-"shed "( they are to 5e s!''ess(!- and dee6ed -e+"t"6ate0 It "s a parad"+6 that 'ons"ders the "nterest o( the +reat po4ers to 5e 5oth ,ery 5road-y !nderstood and to 5e s!per"or to the "nterests o( the s6a--er po4ers they do6"nate0 Thro!+h 6!'h o( 6odern h"storyMat -east s"n'e the 2<th 'ent!ryMthe .est has @!st"("ed do6"nat"on o( a -ar+e port"on o( the +-o5e thro!+h the o-d parad"+60 In the Ba-1ans, th"s do6"nat"on 5e+an 4"th the 'o--apse o( the Croat"an and Ser5"an 6ed"e,a- states "n the 2$th and 2<th 'ent!r"es respe't",e-y, and has 'ont"n!ed 4"th (e4 "nterr!pt"ons !nt"- today0 Conse8!ent-y, o,er the 'ent!r"es the Ba-1ans 5e'a6e an "6per"a- p-ay+ro!nd not 5e'a!se the +reat po4ers 4ere "nterested "n the re+"on as s!'h, 5!t 5e'a!se "t had 5e'o6e the "nterse't"on o( se,era- po4ers that 'o6peted 4"th ea'h other0 The Con+ress o( Ber-"n, 'a--ed 5y Ger6an Chan'e--or B"s6ar'1 "n 2;:;, set the standard (or 6odern "6per"a- do6"nat"on o( the Ba-1ans (or the p!rposes o( the "6per"a- po4ers "rrespe't",e o( the "6pa't on the Ba-1ans "tse-(0 A-tho!+h they d"((er "n s!5stan'e, the /ayton A''ords o( 2&&< (o--o4 the -o+"' and "6pa't o( the Con+ress o( Ber-"n0 Yet the 4e"+ht o( respons"5"-"ty does not rest on-y 4"th the +reat "6per"a- po4ers, the F"nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty0# As t"6e passed, the peop-es and -eaders "n the Ba-1ans 5e'a6e 'o6p-"'"t 4"th the o-d parad"+60 A-tho!+h "t too1 root +rad!a--y a(ter the M"dd-e A+es, the o-d parad"+6 5e+an to s"n1 deep-y "nto the psy'he "n the Ba-1ans a(ter the ad,ent o( the "nd!str"a- re,o-!t"on and the ren'h Re,o-!t"on, 4h"'h to+ether de("ned C6odern"tyD a(ter the ("rst 8!arter o( the 2& th 'ent!ry0 The 6essa+e 4as passed to the Ba-1ans Aas 4e-- as e-se4hereB 5y the 6a@or po4ers o( north4estern E!rope, and soon therea(ter 5y the Un"ted States, that to 5e tr!-y 6odern, to 5e 'o!nted a6on+ the ("rst ran1 o( states, a 'o!ntry had to e65ra'e (!--y the 5ene("ts o( these t4"n re,o-!t"ons0 A-on+ 4"th a-- the rest o( Eastern and Centra- E!rope, the 13

Ba-1ans has str!++-ed to atta"n the pres'r"5ed -e,e- o( 6odern"ty0 B!t, try as they 6ay, the Ba-1ans has ne,er 'o6e re6ote-y near the 6ar1, e"ther po-"t"'a--y or e'ono6"'a--y0 /esp"te so6e ,ar"at"ons "n the -e,eo( de,e-op6ent, the 'o!ntr"es o( the Ba-1ans re6a"n pr"soners o( t4o po4er(!- (or'esE the on+o"n+ do6"nat"on o( o!ts"de po4ers, and the propens"ty o( those po4ers to ad6"n"ster se-()"n(-"'ted 4o!nds0 Renewing the Old Paradigm /!r"n+ the 2&&%s, the Ba-1ans 5e'a6e the s"n+-e 6ost "6portant (ore"+n po-"'y o( the C-"nton ad6"n"strat"on0 A-tho!+h that ad6"n"strat"on 4as s!''ess(!- "n end"n+ the 4ar "n Bosn"a, "t str!++-ed H as ha,e so 6any other po4ers "n the past H to des"+n and en(or'e a po-"t"'a- sett-e6ent "n the re+"on0 .h"-e the /ayton A''ords 4ere the 'ornerstone o( the C-"nton ad6"n"strat"on#s "neptness, "ts o,era-- (a"-!res "n the re+"on ha,e he-ped so4 'ont"n!"n+ e'ono6"' and po-"t"'a- (a"-!re and 5a'14ardness "n the Ba-1ans0 The C-"nton ad6"n"strat"on#s sa,"n+ +ra'e 4as that ("na--y -e(t o(("'e and the Ba-1ans (aded (ro6 the A6er"'an (ore"+n po-"'y 'ons'"o!sness, not 5e'a!se s!''ess had 5een a'h"e,ed there 5!t 5e'a!se other 6ore ser"o!s 6atters "nter,ened and the "n'o6"n+ B!sh ad6"n"strat"on had other pr"or"t"es0 The B!sh ad6"n"strat"on de'"ded ear-y on "n "ts ten!re that the U0S0 4o!-d 4"thdra4 (ro6 the Ba-1ans and t!rn the "ss!e o,er to the E!ropeans to the +reatest eGtent poss"5-e0 B!sh d"d not de'"de to do th"s 5e'a!se he re@e'ted the o-d parad"+6 "n (a,or o( so6e ne4, en-"+htened 'o!rse o( a't"on, 5!t 5e'a!se he (e-t 'o6pe--ed to app-y the o-d parad"+6 "n other parts o( the 4or-d0 The end o( the B!sh ad6"n"strat"on and the ad,ent o( the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on has seen a ret!rn o( the Ba-1ans to the A6er"'an (ore"+n po-"'y a+enda0 It has 5e'o6e C-"nton era red!G0 The Ba-1ans "n +enera- and Bosn"a spe'"("'a--y are 5e"n+ p!shed as an "ss!e -ess 5y the .h"te Ho!se and 6ore 5y the !pper -e,e-s o( the Cne4D State /epart6ent0 In add"t"on, the Ba-1ans ha,e 5e'o6e a rene4ed pr"or"ty a6on+ a (e4 pro6"nent po-"t"'"ans "n .estern E!rope and a6on+ se,era- th"n1)tan1s and ad,o'a'y +ro!ps "n the Un"ted States0 The"r 14

stated 'on'ern "s that Bosn"a "s (a"-"n+, that "t "s not 6a1"n+ the re8!"s"te pro+ress to4ard 5e'o6"n+ that ,"a5-e, sta5-e, de6o'rat"', 6!-t")ethn"', (ree enterpr"se state that dan'ed so ,","d-y "n the"r "6a+"nat"ons 4hen the /ayton A''ords 4ere 'on'-!ded "n 2&&<0 As the"r ar+!6ent +oes, Bosn"a 4as sho4"n+ Csteady pro+ressD pr"or to $%%?0 Re(or6s, the One Bosn"a ad,o'ates ar+!ed, 4ere 6o,"n+ (or4ard stead"-yE @!d"'"a- and taG re(or6 had 5e'o6e rea-"t"es, "nte--"+en'e and se'!r"ty re(or6 4ere "n p-a'e, t4o ro!nds o( de(ense re(or6 had 5een 'on'-!ded, re(or6 o( the Co!n'"- o( M"n"sters 4as "n p-a'e, po-"'e re(or6 had 6o,ed (or4ard, and re(or6 o( the Const"t!t"on, espe'"a--y "n the rea-6 o( h!6an r"+hts, had 5een 'e6ented "nto p-a'e0 S"n'e then, ho4e,er, not on-y ha,e the re(or6s (-at -"ned, Bosn"a has s-"pped Cdan+ero!s-y 5a'14ard0D The s"t!at"on, a''ord"n+ to the se-()appo"nted sa,"ors o( Bosn"a, has 5e'o6e 'r"t"'a-0 Bosn"a "s "n dan+er o( s-"pp"n+ "nto 'haos and d"s"nte+rat"on0 .hy has th"s happenedL A''ord"n+ to the sa,"ors, there are t4o pr"6ary reasons0 "rst, they ass"+n 5-a6e to the B!sh ad6"n"strat"on (or "ts a--e+ed ne+-e't o( the Ba-1ans +enera--y and Bosn"a spe'"("'a--y0 Se'ond, and perhaps 6ost "6portant, they ar+!e that there "s a (a"-!re o( "nd"+eno!s -eadersh"p0 Spe'"("'a--y, they ass"+n 5-a6e to M"-orad /od"1, the Pr"6e M"n"ster o( the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a, and, to a -esser eGtent, to Har"s S"-a@d*"', the M!s-"6 6e65er o( the Bosn"an tr"part"te Pres"den'y0 A''ord"n+ to the .estern "--!6"nat", /od"1 A"n part"'!-arB and S"-a@d*"' AperhapsB are p!rs!"n+ po-"'"es that stron+-y (a,or the"r o4n ethn"'"ty rather than Bosn"a as a 4ho-e0 Conse8!ent-y, th"s 'o65"nat"on o( +o,ern6ent o(("'"a-s A6ost-y "n the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"onB and the"r '-ose-y a--"ed 'ohorts "n th"n1)tan1s and ad,o'a'y +ro!ps 5e-"e,e that "t "s ne'essary to p"'1 !p the thread o( so-"d re(or6 that they 5e-"e,e do6"nated the Cpos"t",eD e,o-!t"on o( Bosn"a pr"or to $%%? and reesta5-"sh "t 5e(ore "t "s Ctoo -ate0D Th"s +ro!p "s 5-"nded 5y "ts o4n arro+an'e and 5y "ts 6"s!nderstand"n+ o( Bosn"a, the Ba-1ans, and the -ar+er rea-"ty o( 15

"nternat"ona- po-"t"'s0 There "s no rat"ona- ar+!6ent, "n (a't, (or any 6a@or A6er"'an re)en+a+e6ent "n Bosn"a, or the Ba-1ans0 There are no s"+n"("'ant A6er"'an "nterests no4 at sta1e "n the re+"on0 There ha,e ne,er 5een any0 The O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on does (a'e a 4e-ter o( 5e4"-der"n+ and dan+ero!s "ss!es e-se4here that are '-ear-y "n the ,"ta"nterest o( the U0S0 Moreo,er, the 'ontent"on that there 4as real pro+ress pr"or to $%%? "s a ("+6ent o( a 'o--e't",e, se-()"6portant, se-() r"+hteo!s "6a+"nat"on0 Certa"n-y there 4as str!'t!ra- 'han+eI 5!t the ne4, e,er 6ore 'entra-"*ed CBosn"anD str!'t!res 4ere a 'h"6era0 Those str!'t!res 6eant ,ery -"tt-e0 The -o'!s o( po4er has a-4ays 5een "n the ethn"' 'o66!n"t"es0 The -eadersh"p "n M!s-"6)Bosn"a has a-4ays 5een adept at te--"n+ A6er"'an and other .estern o(("'"a-s 4hat they 4anted to hear, re+ard-ess o( rea-"ty0 In short, the re(or6s 4ere a tr"!6ph o( (or6 o,er s!5stan'e0 They 4ere ho--o4, phony atte6pts to 6a1e "t appear that 'han+e had ta1en p-a'e 4hen, "n rea-"ty, "t had not and 'o!-d not0 or .estern ad,o'ates o( "nter,ent"on, the (a!-t (or (a"-!re "n Bosn"a -"es s8!are-y on the sho!-ders o( Bosn"a#s -eadersh"p0 These -eaders, they ar+!e, ha,e (a"-ed to ta1e ser"o!s-y the +ood e((orts o( the ar'h"te'ts o( /ayton and ha,e (a"-ed 6"sera5-y, at -east s"n'e $%%?, o( "6p-e6ent"n+ the p-an that 4o!-d 6a1e Bosn"a a sh"n"n+ eGa6p-e o( a ,"5rant 6!-t")ethn"' de6o'ra'y0 In tr!th, ho4e,er, to the eGtent Bosn"a has C(a"-ed,D the (a!-t rests s8!are-y 4"th the .estern ad,o'ates the6se-,es0 The root 'a!se o( (a"-!re "s 4"th them and the"r 6"s+!"ded, "nept po-"'es "n"t"ated d!r"n+ the 2&&%s0 The (a"-!re o( Bosn"a has noth"n+ to do 4"th the ne+-e't o( the B!sh ad6"n"strat"on or "nd"+eno!s -eadersh"p0 It has, rather, to do 4"th the arro+ant "na5"-"ty or re(!sa- to !nderstand the nat!re o( ethn"' po-"t"'s, to tota--y 6"s@!d+e 4hat "s re8!"red to esta5-"sh a 6odern po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"ty0 The Bosn"("ers 'o6p-ete-y 6"ss the (a't that se-()deter6"nat"on 'annot 5e s6othered 5y d"'tate0 A p"e'e6ea- reso-!t"on o( the Y!+os-a, "ss!e, "nstead o( one that (o'!sed on the re+"on as a 4ho-e, 16

4as a pres'r"pt"on (or d"saster0 In the end, (or the 4ho ad,o'ate a stron+ U0S0 reen+a+e6ent "n Bosn"a Aand the Ba-1ansB, that 'o!ntry and that re+"on as s!'h 4ere ne,er rea--y the po"nt0 or the6, the po"nt spea1s to a stron+ stra"n o( A6er"'an "6per"a-"s6 and eG'ept"ona-"s6, the po4er o( 6an"(est dest"ny0 or 6any o( the6, the 'a!se o( Bosn"a has 5e'o6e a 4ay to (!-("-- a persona- and psy'ho-o+"'a- need "n the +!"se o( nat"ona- "nterest0 A (Not So) New Paradigm S"6p-y stated, Bosn"a does not a ne4 /ayton or anyth"n+ e,en re6ote-y rese65-"n+ "t0 Under+"rd"n+ th"s 'ontent"on "s the 6ore 5as"' @!d+6ent that the o-d parad"+6 o( "6per"a"nter,ent"on has -on+ s"n'e o!t-",ed "ts !se(!-ness "n the +-o5a-"*"n+ 4or-d o( the $2st 'ent!ry0 In a 4or-d "n 4h"'h e'ono6"', so'"a- and po-"t"'a- str!'t!res are rap"d-y 'han+"n+, "t "s no -on+er 4or1a5-e or @!st to deter6"ne the nat!re o( po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"ty (or others0 It "s espe'"a--y "nappropr"ate (or a 6a@or po4er, s!'h as the U0S0, to atte6pt to Cd"'tateD or e,en pres'r"5e the (or6 and s!5stan'e o( e'ono6"', so'"a- and po-"t"'a- or+an"*at"on and "ntera't"on, s!'h as the Ba-1ans, 4h"'h "s o( 6"n"6a- nat"ona- "nterest0 Instead, the U0S0 and the 6a@or po4ers "n .estern E!rope need to a''ept a ne4 parad"+6Mone that "s not rea--y a-- that ne40 In the e,o-,"n+ 4or-d, no -on+er 4"-- there 5e one a''epta5-e, -e+"t"6ate 4ay to or+an"*e 'o66!n"t"es, to p!rs!e "nterests, and to eGpress "deo-o+"es0 States 4"-- 'ont"n!e to 5e the do6"nant (or6 o( po-"t"'a- or+an"*at"on, 5!t they are 5e"n+ 'ha--en+ed "n'reas"n+-y 5y other 6odes o( or+an"*at"on H 5y non)state a'tors that are -e,e-"n+ the +-o5a- p-ay"n+ ("e-d 5y 5e'o6"n+ -e+"t"6ate and a!thor"tat",e or+ans o( po-"t"'a-, so'"a- and e'ono6"' eGpress"on0 In the 'onte6porary 4or-d, th"s rea-"ty "s 6an"(est "n a ne4 !nderstand"n+ o( se-()deter6"nat"on and se-() a't!a-"*at"on0 These are not ne4 pr"n'"p-es, 5!t "n the past they ha,e a-6ost a-4ays 5een eGpressed "n ter6s o( ne4 state (or6at"on or state re) (or6at"on 5ased on so6e sort o( 6!t!a- 6ater"a-, '!-t!ra- or 17

"deo-o+"'a- "nterest0 .h"-e se-()deter6"nat"on and se-()a't!a-"*at"on 4"-- 'ont"n!e to 5e eGpressed th"s 4ay "n the (!t!re, "n'reas"n+-y 'o66!n"t"es 4"-- (or6 a-on+ 5!s"ness, '!-t!ra-, ethn"', re-"+"o!s, 6"-"tary, et'0 -"nes0 A-tho!+h at t"6es 'ontro,ers"a- and open to d"((er"n+ "nterpretat"ons, one 'an po"nt (or "nstr!'t"on to the Cs!5s"d"ar"tyD pr"n'"p-e that "s ("r6-y ens'on'ed "n E!ropean Un"on -a4 Asee the E!ropean Charter o( Lo'a- and Se-()Go,ern6ent and the 2&&$ Maastr"'ht TreatyB0 or the 'onte6porary +reat po4ers to 5!y "nto a ne4 parad"+6 that -"n1s se-()deter6"nat"on, se-()a't!a-"*at"on and s!5s"d"ar"ty 4o!-d re8!"re a 'han+e "n o!t-oo1 and po-"'y that "s, at 5est, !n-"1e-y 5!t 4h"'h 6ay 5e (or'ed !pon the6 5y e,o-,"n+ '"r'!6stan'e0 S!'h an a''eptan'e 4o!-d re8!"re an ad6"ss"on that past .estern po-"'y has (a"-ed "n the Ba-1ans and that a ne4 approa'h "s !na,o"da5-e0 At 6"n"6!6 th"s 4o!-d re8!"re '-os"n+ the O(("'e o( the H"+h Representat",e, end"n+ the Bonn Po4ers and Pea'e I6p-e6entat"on Co66"ttee APICB so6e t"6e "n $%2%0 These t4o o(("'es, "n part"'!-ar, are ,est"+es o( a hea,y)handed, o(ten oppress",e 4e"+ht on -o'a- se-() de,e-op6ent0 O( 'o!rse the OHR and the PIC see the6se-,es as en-"+htened +!arantors o( pea'e(!- trans"t"on to s!''ess(!- statehood (or Bosn"a0 In the a5sen'e o( 4ar the oppos"te "s '-oser to rea-"ty, 5e'a!se these or+an"*at"ons "nh"5"t the -o'a- part"es (ro6 'o6"n+ to ter6s 4"th ea'h other0 The"r 'ont"n!ed eG"sten'e en'o!ra+es e"ther s!5ter(!+e on the part o( -o'a- a!thor"t"es or a preteGt (or not ha,"n+ to honest-y ("nd areas o( 'o6pro6"se, a+ree6ent and d"sa+ree6ent0 Leaders "n .ash"n+ton, a-on+ 4"th those "n e,ery other 'ap"ta-, rea-"*e at an "nte--e't!a- -e,e- that the Co-d .ar era has passed "nto the +-o5a-"*"n+, post)Septe65er 22 4or-d0 S"n'e th"s 6eans that A6er"'an he+e6ony has passed and the 4or-d "s no4 6!'h 6ore d"((erent"ated, rea- a''eptan'e 5y the .estern po-"'y 'o+nos'ent" "s eGtre6e-y d"(("'!-t0 Trans-at"n+ s!'h a''eptan'e "nto tr!e po-"'y 'han+e "s ,ery d"(("'!-t0 It "s espe'"a--y hard (or those 4ho ha,e 'o6e to pro(ess"ona18

6at!r"ty d!r"n+ the heady days o( the Co-d .ar and ha,e 5een !sed to A6er"'an s!pre6a'y0 Irrespe't",e o( 4hether A6er"'an Aand so6e E!ropeanB po-"'y)6a1ers 'annot 6a1e the trans"t"on to the e6er+"n+ ne4 4or-d, "t "s "6portant that others do not (a-- prey to 5e-"e( "n an A6er"'an do6"nan'e and he+e6ony that no -on+er eG"st0 Indeed, "t "s e,er 6ore ne'essary (or po-"t"'a- -eaders "n the re+"on, and espe'"a--y "n Bosn"a, to ho-d A6er"'an "n(-!en'e and "nter(eren'e at ar6#s -en+th, and to eGert the"r o4n -eadersh"p and "n(-!en'e (ar 6ore assert",e-y0 Iron"'a--y, the on-y p-a'e "n the Ba-1ans 4here that "s happen"n+ r"+ht no4 "s "n the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a ARSB0 At -east (or no4, the RS -eadersh"p, espe'"a--y M"-orad /od"1, has sho4n the 'o!ra+e, (ort"t!de and "nte--"+en'e to "ns"st that -o'a- -eaders and '"t"*ens ta1e respons"5"-"ty (or the"r (!t!res0 The SNS/ -eadersh"p has ta1en the ad,"'e o( M!s-"6 -eader S!-e@6an T"h"N to end the Cph"-osophy o( ,"'t"6hood and se-()p"tyD that has per,aded 5road s4aths o( Bosn"an) M!s-"6 -eadersh"p s"n'e the 'o--apse o( Y!+os-a,"a and 4h"'h a't!a--y re"n(or'es .estern do6"nan'e0 I( th"s eGper"6ent "n -o'a- 'ontro- and de'"s"on 6a1"n+, 'ons"stent 4"th the EU po-"'y o( s!5s"d"ar"ty, "s to 'ont"n!e and -o'a-s are to +a"n rea- and -ast"n+ 'ontro- o( the po-"t"'a- pro'ess, "t 4"-- 5e ne'essary (or the Bosn"an Ser5 Rep!5-"' to 'ont"n!e to -ead0 To do th"s, RS -eaders need to art"'!-ate and p!rs!e se,era- spe'"("' po-"'"esE Re,",e the FPr!d Pro'ess# 5ased on d"re't ne+ot"at"ons H (ree (ro6 (ore"+n 6edd-"n+ H 5et4een the part"es "ns"de Bosn"a) Her*e+o,"na, not 5e'a!se "t 4"-- ne'essar"-y -ead to a+ree6ent on the str!'t!re and (!n't"on o( po-"t"'a- 'o66!n"ty, 5!t 5e'a!se "t e6po4ers the -eaders and '"t"*ens "n the re+"on to ta1e 'har+e o( the"r o4n -",es0 As The RS needs to "ns"st on e-"6"nat"on o( the OHR, the Bonn Po4ers, and the PIC "n $%2%0 These are a-- ,est"+es o( o,er5ear"n+ 'on'epts and po-"'"es that ha,e -on+ s"n'e o!t-",ed the"r !se(!-ness0 19

Under /ayton the RS 'an eGpand '!-t!ra-, se'!r"ty, and espe'"a--y e'ono6"' re-at"ons 4"th 6any other areas0 In part"'!-ar, the RS sho!-d see1 to eGpand "ts 'red"t -"ne 4"th R!ss"a0 EGpand and "6pro,e too-s to prote't "ts ("nan'"a- assets and !se ("nan'"a- assets as -e,era+e "n Bosn"a and thro!+ho!t the Ba-1ans0 EGpand M"n"stry o( Inter"or AMUPB po-"'e (or'es as a 4ay o( 5etter prote't"n+ RS peop-e and property0 Th"s sho!-d 5e seen as '-ear-y a de(ens",e, 'a!t"onary 6eas!re0 EGp-ore eGpand"n+ re-at"ons 4"th Ser5"a, 4h"'h "s 8!"te 'ons"stent 4"th Art"'-e IV o( the /ayton A''ords0

Conclusion It "s a t"6e o( potent"a--y s"+n"("'ant 'han+e "n the Ba-1ans +enera--y and spe'"("'a--y "n Bosn"a and the RSM"t "s perhaps the 6ost "6portant t"6e s"n'e the ad,ent o( the /ayton A''ords "n 2&&<0 There are t4o s"+n"("'ant reasons (or th"s0 "rst, the 'han+e "n ad6"n"strat"ons "n .ash"n+ton has 5ro!+ht the Ba-1ans, and espe'"a--y Bosn"a, 5a'1 onto the A6er"'an a+enda0 There are those "n .ash"n+ton 4ho 4"sh to ret!rn to the o-d parad"+6, 5!t there a-so are peop-e "n .ash"n+ton 4ho see the ne'ess"ty (or the po-"t"'a'o66!n"t"es "n the Ba-1ans to deter6"ne the"r o4n (!t!res0 The re+"on 4o!-d 5e 6!'h 5etter ser,ed 5y a hands)o(( approa'h 5y the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on, 4"th the hea,y hand o( "6per"a- a!thor"ty rep-a'ed 5y an en-"+htened hand o( restra"nt0 The the -eaders and '"t"*ens "n the re+"on sho!-d se"*e the "n"t"at",e, (o--o4 the -ead o( the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a, and 5e+"n 6ore (or'e(!--y to shape the"r o4n dest"n"es0

20

A New Bosnian Crisis? =a6es B"ssett2

6er"'an rene4ed "nterest "n the re+"on "s 5ad ne4s (or the Ser5"an peop-e "n +enera- and (or the Rep!5-"' o( Srps1a "n part"'!-ar0 The A6er"'an re'ord "n the Ba-1ans s"n'e the 5rea1 !p o( the (or6er Y!+os-a,"a "n the ear-y 2&&%#s has 5een d"sastro!s0 In Mar'h 2&&$, the Port!+!ese (ore"+n 6"n"ster, =ose C!t"-e"ro, a't"n+ on 5eha-( o( the E!ropean Un"on, 4as a5-e, thro!+h s1"--(!- d"p-o6a'y, to arran+e a pea'e(!- sett-e6ent o( the Bosn"an 'r"s"s 5y +ett"n+ the M!s-"6s, Ser5s and Croats to a+ree to a pea'e p-an that 4o!-d +",e a!tono6y to the three +ro!ps and a--o4 Bosn"a to eG"st as an "ndependent state0 Not 4"--"n+ to a''ept th"s sens"5-e so-!t"on the Un"ted States sent the"r A65assador "n Be-+rade to Sara@e,o to pers!ade the M!s-"6 -eader, A-"a I*et5e+o,"', to reno!n'e the a+ree6ent and to de'-are !n"-atera- "ndependen'e0 The A65assador pro6"sed that a(ter the anno!n'e6ent the Un"ted States 4o!-d "66ed"ate-y re'o+n"*e the ne4 state0 I*et5e+o,"' see"n+ h"s opport!n"ty to 5e'o6e the -eader o( the ("rst M!s-"6 state "n the heart o( E!rope a'ted a''ord"n+-y0 .hat (o--o4ed 4as, as to 5e eGpe'ted, a (ero'"o!s three 4ay '","- 4ar that 'ost 2%%,%%% -",es and the d"sp-a'e6ent o( h!ndreds o( tho!sands o( peop-e (ro6 the"r an'estra- ho6es0
1

A65assador =a6es B"ssett "s Cha"r6an o( The Lord Byron o!ndat"on, (or6er head o( Canada#s I66"+rat"on Ser,"'e, and (or6er Canad"an A65assador to Y!+os-a,"a

21

/!r"n+ the 'o!rse o( the 4ar the A6er"'ans pro-on+ed the 'on(-"'t 5y sa5ota+"n+ e,ery e((ort o( the E!ropean Un"on to arran+e a 'ease ("re and pea'e(!- sett-e6ent0 In add"t"on, the A6er"'ans s!pported the M!s-"6 'a!se 5y se'ret-y pro,"d"n+ the6 4"th ar6s and e8!"p6ent and arran+"n+ (or the entry "nto Bosn"a o( se,era- tho!sand ,eteran M!@"hadeen to ("+ht a+a"nst the Bosn"an Ser5 (or'es0 Later "n the 'on(-"'t "t 4as US press!re that o5ta"ned UN appro,a- to 'ond!'t NATO a"r str"1es a+a"nst the Ser5s0 o--o4"n+ the end o( the 'on(-"'t and the pea'e a+ree6ent s"+ned "n /ayton "n 2&&<, the A6er"'ans a+a"n "nter,ened "n Ba-1an a((a"rs0 Th"s t"6e "t 4as "n 3oso,o 4here an ar6ed re5e--"on had ta1en p-a'e 5y A-5an"ans -ed 5y a terror"st +ro!p 'a--"n+ the6se-,es the 3oso,o L"5erat"on Ar6y O3LAP 4ho 4ere try"n+ to 5rea1 a4ay (ro6 Ser5"a0 The A6er"'ans a+a"n s!pported the re5e-s and thro!+h a--e+at"ons that +eno'"de and ethn"' '-eans"n+ 4as ta1"n+ p-a'e "n 3oso,o 5o65ed Ser5"a0 The 5o65"n+ 4as done 5y NATO (or'es -ed 5y the Un"ted States and 4as done 4"tho!t 'ons!-tat"on 4"th the Un"ted Nat"ons and "n ,"o-at"on o( NATO#s o4n Art"'-e 2 that !na65"+!o!s-y st"p!-ated the A--"an'e 4o!-d not threaten or !se (or'e "n the reso-!t"on o( "nternat"ona- d"sp!tes0 Later the Un"ted States and 6ost o( the NATO 'o!ntr"es re'o+n"*ed 3oso,o "ndependen'e, desp"te the de'-arat"on 5e"n+ a ,"o-at"on o( "nternat"ona- -a4 and 'ontrary to the pr"n'"pa-s o( terr"tor"a- "nte+r"ty and so,ere"+nty0 The "ndependen'e o( 3oso,o 4as res"sted 5y the R!ss"ans 4ho (eared th"s 5-atant ,"o-at"on o( "nternat"ona- -a4 4o!-d set a dan+ero!s pre'edent (or other +ro!ps aro!nd the 4or-d 4ho des"red to +a"n "ndependen'e 0The R!ss"an Pres"dent a-so 4arned that "( 3oso,o +a"ned "ndependen'e, R!ss"a 4o!-d re'o+n"*e the "ndependen'e o( A51has"a and So!th Osset"a0 The R!ss"an 4arn"n+s 4ere s"6p-y d"s6"ssed o!t o( hand0 Bla$in0 the Ser)s H In add"t"on to 'ons"stent-y 5rea1"n+ a-- o( the "nternat"ona- r!-es and ,"o-at"n+ (!nda6enta- pr"n'"p-es that ha,e +o,erned the re-at"onsh"p 5et4een states (or h!ndreds o( years the 22

A6er"'an 'ond!'t "n the Ba-1ans has 5een (!rther tarn"shed 5y the"r atte6pt to @!st"(y the"r eGtraord"nary 5eha,"or 5y de6on"*"n+ Ser5"a0 Th"s has 5een a''o6p-"shed 5y an or+an"*ed and h"+h-y s!''ess(!6ed"a 'a6pa"+n to 5-a6e the respons"5"-"ty (or a-- o( the tra+"' e,ents that o''!rred a(ter the d"s"nte+rat"on o( Y!+os-a,"a on S-o5odan M"-ose,"' and Ser5"a0 Today thro!+ho!t the +-o5e th"s s"6p-"st"' ,"e4 "s a''epted and re6a"ns !n'ha--en+ed0 A'ade6"'s, po-"t"'"ans, @o!rna-"sts, enterta"ners, a!thorsQ '-a"6 the Ser5s are the perpetrators o( a-- o( the 'r"6es, the ,"o-en'e and the 5-oodshed "n the (or6er Y!+os-a,"a0 The U0S0)5a'1ed and ("nan'ed Internat"ona- Cr"6"na- Tr"5!na(or the (or6er Y!+os-a,"a OICTYP has a-so p-ayed a 6a@or ro-e "n portray"n+ the Ser5s as the ,"--a"ns "n the Ba-1an tra+edy0 A-6ost a-- o( the senten'es handed do4n 5y the Tr"5!na- ha,e 5een a+a"nst Ser5s0 Se,era- o( the 6ost ser"o!s 'on,"'t"ons ha,e re-"ed on the d!5"o!s 'har+es o( C@o"nt 'r"6"na- enterpr"se and 'o66and respons"5"-"ty,D 'on'epts des"+ned 5y the Tr"5!na- to 'on,"'t "nd","d!a-s o( 'r"6es o( 4h"'h they the6se-,es d"d not 'o66"t0 In 'ontrast, so6e o( the 6ost notor"o!s M!s-"6 and A-5an"an 3oso,ars 'har+ed 4"th 'r"6es they d"d 'o66"t ha,e 5een re-eased 5y the tr"5!na- or ha,e re'e",ed -"+ht senten'es0 The ICTY has 5een ha"-ed as a 6a@or step "n 5r"n+"n+ 4ar 'r"6"na-s to @!st"'e and to ens!re that those 4ho 'o66"t 'r"6es a+a"nst h!6an"ty 4"-- not +o !np!n"shed0 In (a't the Tr"5!na- at the Ha+!e has a'ted 6ore "n 1eep"n+ 4"th the pro'esses (o--o4ed 5y the Sta-"n"st sho4 tr"a-s o( the -ate 2&>%#s0The Tr"5!na- has 5een !sed as a propa+anda 6a'h"ne and a 'on,en"ent 'o,er (or the 6"s+!"ded and da6a+"n+ po-"'"es (o--o4ed 5y the US -ed NATO po4ers and 5e'a!se o( "ts sha6e(!- re'ord "t has, "ron"'a--y, dea-t a ser"o!s 5-o4 to the ,ery 'on'ept o( "nternat"ona- @!st"'e0 Do&)le Standards H An o5@e't",e anays"s o( U0S0 po-"'y "n the Ba-1ans s"n'e the ear-y 2&&%#s 4"-- o5ser,e that "t has 5een 5ased on 23

the ass!6pt"on that the 'o!ntr"es o( the Ba-1ans and the peop-es -","n+ there are not 8!"te 4orthy o( 5e"n+ treated as e8!a-s !nder the nor6a-a4s o( the 'o66!n"ty o( nat"ons0 Ser5"a and "ts '"t"*ens ha,e 5een a''orded the stat!s o( 4hat R!dyard 3"p-"n+, the En+-"sh poet and 4r"ter, des'r"5ed as, C-esser 5reeds 4"tho!t the -a40D Th"s (a-se ass!6pt"on has pers!aded A6er"'an po-"t"'"ans that the Un"ted Nat"ons Charter, The He-s"n1" "na- A''ords and the nor6s o( "nternat"ona- -a4 do not app-y to the Ba-1ans0 It eGp-a"ns 4hy .ash"n+ton 4as so sho'1ed 4hen the R!ss"ans rep!-sed the Geo+"an assa!-t on So!th Osset"a "n A!+!st $%%;0 The U0S0 +o,ern6ent 5"tter-y 'o6p-a"ned at that t"6e that R!ss"a had ,"o-ated Geor+"an so,ere"+nty and "ts terr"tor"a- "nte+r"ty0 On-y s"G 6onths ear-"er the Un"ted States had re'o+n"*ed the "ndependen'e o( 3oso,o H a '-ear ,"o-at"on o( Ser5"a#s terr"tor"a- "nte+r"ty and so,ere"+nty0 Yet the hypo'r"sy o( s!'h protests see6ed not to 5e not"'ed e"ther 5y US po-"t"'a- -eaders or 5y the .estern 6ed"a0 E,"dent-y the A6er"'ans 5e-"e,e they 'an +et a4ay 4"th anyth"n+ "n the Ba-1ans and do so 4"tho!t 4orry"n+ a5o!t the 'onse8!en'es or o( the dread(!- da6a+e they ha,e done to the (ra6e4or1 o( pea'e and se'!r"ty "n the 4or-d0 The 5o65"n+ o( Ser5"a "n 2&&& 4as a h"stor"' t!rn"n+ po"nt 5e'a!se "t sho4ed that the pr"n'"p-es o( the UN Charter 4ere no -on+er respe'ted 5y the 4or-d#s 6ost po4er(!- nat"on0 !rther6ore, the 5o65"n+ ena5-ed the Un"ted States to 'o) opt NATO "nto 5e'o6"n+, "n e((e't, an "nstr!6ent o( US 6"-"tary po4er as opposed to "ts or"+"na- ro-e o( de(end"n+ E!rope (ro6 So,"et a++ress"on and operat"n+ "n a''ordan'e 4"th the pr"n'"p-es o( the UN Charter0 The s!5se8!ent re'o+n"t"on o( 3oso,o "ndependen'e 4as s"6p-y the -o+"'a- eGtens"on o( po-"'"es 'arr"ed o!t 5y US po-"'y 6a1ers 4"tho!t re+ard to the (ate(!- 'onse8!en'es s!'h po-"'"es 6"+ht ha,e e-se4here or "n the (!t!re0 Sad-y, the p!5-"' 'ond"t"oned 5y a 'o6p-"ant 6ed"a 'ont"n!es to 5e-"e,e the rhetor"' o( the"r po-"t"'a24

-eaders and "nte--e't!a- e-"te that A6er"'a st"-- stands (or de6o'ra'y, the r!-e o( -a4 and e8!a- treat6ent (or a-- nat"ons0 Decline of A$erican Power H At the heart o( the pro5-e6 "s the h!5r"s that a''o6pan"es !nr",a-ed po4er 5ased pr"6ar"-y on 6"-"tary s!pre6a'y0 In the 2&&%#s the Un"ted States stood a-one as the +reatest 6"-"tary po4er "n the 4or-d0 It 'o!-d do as "t 4"shed, not on-y "n the Ba-1ans 5!t any4here0 It 'o!-d a't 4"tho!t (ear o( repr"sa-0 Ho4e,er, that po4er s!pre6a'y "s no4 5e"n+ 'ha--en+ed0 The e,ents "n Geor+"a "n A!+!st $%%; sho4ed that a res!r+ent R!ss"a 4"-- no -on+er stand 5y and a--o4 the U0S0 to do as "t 4"shed "n areas o( R!ss"a#s nat"ona- "nterest0 The +ro4"n+ e'ono6"' po4er o( Ch"na, Ind"a, Bra*"- and the 'r"t"'a- e'ono6"' and ("nan'"a- 'r"s"s no4 (a'ed 5y the Un"ted States 6!st "ne,"ta5-y (or'e the Un"ted States to 4"thdra4 (ro6 "ts do6"nant pos"t"on as the on-y 4or-d po4er0 Moreo,er, added to the 'r"t"'a- ("nan'"a- d"saster (a'"n+ the U0S0 "s the on+o"n+ 4ars "n Ira8 and A(+han"stan, the poss"5-e 'o--apse o( Pa1"stan, the 'ont"n!"n+ threat o( a terror"st str"1e at ho6e and the 'ha--en+e o( a n!'-ear ar6ed North 3orea and perhaps Iran0 These de,e-op6ents ha,e rad"'a--y 'han+ed the +eopo-"t"'a- -ands'ape0 One 6"+ht hope that A6er"'an -eaders 4"-- rea-"*e that they 'annot 5e dea-t 4"th 5y the !se o( (or'e or 5y the threat o( (or'e0 The s!dden and rene4ed "nterest o( US po-"'y 6a1ers "n Bosn"a 4o!-d "nd"'ate that there are 6any "n .ash"n+ton 4ho are not a4are o( the 'han+"n+ 5a-an'e o( po4er "n the 4or-d0 Ho4 e-se 'an one eGp-a"n the Cre)en+a+e6entD "n Ba-1an a((a"rsL As h"story sho4s, th"s 'an -ead to pro5-e6s that rea'h (ar 5eyond the Ba-1ans0 A(ter the 'atastroph"' res!-ts o( A6er"'an "nter,ent"on "n Bosn"a "n the 2&&%#s, 4hy no4 r"s1 ne4 d"saster 5y ret!rn"n+ to the s'ene o( the 'r"6eL -s +here a Bosnian Crisis? H /ayton ended the 5-oody 'on(-"'t that had 5een ra+"n+ "n Bosn"a (ro6 2&&$ to 2&&< and 5ro!+ht a5o!t a 5a-an'e o( d"sasat"s(a't"on to the three 4arr"n+ s"des0 O,er the past 25

("(teen years the 'o!ntry has 6ana+ed to (!n't"on a-tho!+h "t "s not 6a1"n+ 6!'h pro+ress "n ter6s o( e'ono6"' prosper"ty or +ood +o,ernan'e0 O( 'o!rse, thehe 5"tterness o( the sa,a+e '","- 4ar 4"th "ts ethn"' '-eans"n+ and 6!t!a- atro'"t"es has not 5een (or+otten0 The M!s-"6 -eadersh"p, "n part"'!-ar, re6a"ns steeped "n a sense o( ,"'t"6hood and ent"t-e6ent0 Ne,erthe-ess, the 'o!ntry "s at pea'e and there "s no "nd"'at"on that any o( the Bosn"ans H 4hether Ser5, Croat or M!s-"6 H are anG"o!s to ha,e another ar6ed 'on(-"'t er!pt0 .h"-e "t "s tr!e there are ser"o!s o5sta'-es to o,er'o6e "( the present Bosn"a "s to prosper and 6eet the re8!"re6ents (or entry "nto the EU, 4hat "s the r!shL The eG"sten'e o( "ss!es to o,er'o6e does not 6ean there "s a 'r"s"s that re8!"res !r+ent reso-!t"on0 The 'ore o( the pro5-e6 "s the "ns"sten'e that (ore"+n "np!t "s needed to reso-,e -o'a- pro5-e6s0 The o(("'e o( the H"+h Representat",e "s '-ear-y part o( the pro5-e60 Bosn"a 'ont"n!es to 5e treated as "t 4as (o--o4"n+ the Con+ress o( Ber-"n "n 2;:;, 4hen "t 4as handed o,er to A!str"a)H!n+ary0 Today, the H"+h Representat",e "s another A!str"an, Va-ent"n In*1o0 He and those pre'ed"n+ h"6 s"n'e 2&&< ha,e a'ted as -o'a- C+a!-e"tersD and are 8!"te prepared to ta1e s"des and to eGer'"se the"r d"'ator"a- po4ers0 The A6er"'an p!sh (or reshap"n+ the /ayton a+ree6ent or s'rapp"n+ "t a-to+ether has noth"n+ to do 4"th he-p"n+ o,er'o6e the d"(("'!-t"es 'on(ronted 5y the three s"des "n Bosn"a0 H"stor"'a--y, "nter,ent"on "n the Ba-1ans ne,er has 5een "n the "nterest o( the -o'apeop-e -","n+ there 5!t a-4ays "t has 5een to ser,e the (ore"+n po-"'y o5@e't",es o( the "nter,en"n+ po4er0 I( the A6er"'an de'"s"on)6a1ers hope that they 'an 4"n the hearts and 6"nds o( the Is-a6"' 4or-d 5y ("na--y restor"n+ Bosn"a to M!s-"6 r!-e, as "t 4as d!r"n+ the -on+ years o( the Otto6an e6p"re, they are de-!ded0 Here"n -"es the rea- dan+er0 Here"n "s the rea- 'r"s"s "n Bosn"a0

26

Leave the Balkans to the Balkans /o!+ Bando42

or near-y t4o de'ades the Ba-1ans has 5een a 6a@or pr"or"ty o( U0S0 (ore"+n po-"'y0 .ash"n+ton "n"t"ated 6"-"tary a't"on "n Bosn"a and (!-- s'a-e 4ar a+a"nst Ser5"a to redra4 the Ba-1ans 6ap0 The U0S0 a-so de,oted 5"--"ons o( do--ars and enor6o!s d"p-o6at"' e((orts to reen+"neer 'o!ntr"es and terr"tor"es to s!"t ar5"trary A6er"'an pre(eren'es0 Yet U0S0 "nterests "n the Ba-1ans 4ere H and re6a"n H 6"n"6aat 5est0 A5sent a Co-d .ar en,"ron6ent 4h"'h 'o!-d t!rn a -o'a'on(-"'t "nto a +-o5a- 'on(-a+rat"on, the Ba-1ans 6attered 6ost to the res"dents o( the re+"on, and 6!'h 6ore to the E!rope than to A6er"'a Mand not 6!'h e,en to the (or6er0 One o( the !n(ort!nate 'onse8!en'es o( the end o( the Co-d .ar 4as the 5-oody d"s"nte+rat"on o( Y!+os-a,"a0 There 4as 6ore than a -"tt-e 5-a6e, and 6ore than a (e4 atro'"t"es, to spread aro!nd0 Ho4e,er, a--"ed po-"'y 4as 5!"-t on a destr!'t",e hypo'r"syE e,ery ethn"' +ro!p 'o!-d se'ede (ro6 Ser5)do6"nated po-"t"'a- ent"t"es, 5!t Ser5s 'o!-d ne,er se'ede (ro6 a po-"t"'a- a!thor"ty do6"nated 5y anyone e-se0
2

/o!+ Bando4 "s a Sen"or e--o4 at the Cato Inst"t!te0 A (or6er Spe'"aAss"stant to Pres"dent Rona-d Rea+an, he "s the a!thor o( se,era- 5oo1s, "n'-!d"n+ "oreign "ollies: #mericas !e$ %lobal Empire AR!-onB0

27

Th"s 4as, "n (a't, the on-y e,"dent pr"n'"p-e pro6oted 5y the U0S0 and E!ropeans, and "t had dead-y 'onse8!en'es0 Rather than open"n+ the 4ay to a ne+ot"ated "( 'o6p-"'ated redra4"n+ o( po-"t"'a5o!ndar"es, the .estern a--"es "ns"sted that the ne4 states 'reated o!t o( the o-d Y!+os-a,"a stay 4"th"n the"r 5o!ndar"es as dra4n !p, 6ost-y ar5"trar"-y, 5y T"to#s 'o66!n"sts0 Th"s pro6pted the "nha5"tants o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na, that ,er"ta5-e 6"'ro'os6 o( o-d Y!+os-a,"a#s ethn"' 'o6p-eG"ty, to s-!+ "t o!t (or 'ontro-0 It 4as here that .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-s, "( not a-- o( the 6e65er states o( the E!ropean Un"on, ha,e ret!rned to a po-"'y o( 'o-on"a-"s6, 4"th a ne4, h!6an"tar"an +-oss0 The ne4 -odestar "s 6!-t") '!-t!ra- de6o'ra'y, "rrespe't",e o( the 4"shes o( the '"t"*ens o( the part"'!-ar terr"tory "n,o-,edQ unless "t "s Ser5s 4ho 4"sh to 6a"nta"n a 6!-t")ethn"' state, "n 4h"'h 'ase se'ess"on "n the na6e o( se-() deter6"nat"on "s the .est#s pre(erred po-"'y0 Th!s, .ash"n+ton#s po-"'y has 5een to "6poseMafter the 5rea1!p o( Y!+os-a,"a, nat!ra--y Ma .estern ,"s"on o( -"5era- p-!ra-"s6 on peop-es 6ore "n'-"ned to order the"r po-"t"'s a-on+ ethn"' -"nes0 Moreo,er, the U0S0, (o--o4ed a 5"t 6ore re-!'tant-y 5y the E!ropeans, 6ana+ed Ba-1an a((a"rs 4"th -"tt-e 'on'ern (or R!ss"an "nterests0 Th"s po-"'y he-ped spa4n Mos'o4#s p!n"sh"n+ response to Geor+"a#s pro,o'at",e 5eha,"or "n So!th Osset"a "n the s!66er o( $%%;0 It 'o6es as no s!rpr"se, then, that .ash"n+ton#s po-"'y "n the Ba-1ans has had d"sappo"nt"n+ res!-ts0 The re+"on st"-- "s d","ded ethn"'a--y, po-"t"'a--y, and re-"+"o!s-y0 .h"-e a ,"o-ent 5rea1do4n o( the present order see6s !n-"1e-y, s!'h a 'r"s"s 4o!-d "ne,"ta5-y p!-- the Un"ted States 5a'1 "nto 'on(-"'ts -ar+e-y "rre-e,ant to "ts o4n se'!r"ty0 3oso,o has de'-ared "ts "ndependen'e 4"th the B!sh ad6"n"strat"on#s s!pport, 5!t has 4on the re'o+n"t"on o( -ess than a th"rd o( the 4or-d#s nat"ons0 Ser5s "n the north re(!se to s!56"t to 3LA#s 'ontro-, -ea,"n+ 3oso,o an a6p!tated 4anna5e)state0

28

Ser5"a "s +o,erned 5y a 'oa-"t"on that "s pro).estern "n the sense o( 5e"n+ 'o66"tted to enter"n+ the E!ropean Un"on, 5!t 4h"'h 'ont"n!es to oppose an "ndependent 3oso,o0 U0S0 and so6e E!ropean o(("'"a-s ar+!e that Ser5"a sho!-d (or+et "ts an+er o,er 5e"n+ shorn o( "ts terr"tory and a'8!"es'e "n 3oso,o#s "ndependen'e0 A''ord"n+ to the U0S0 Go,ern6ent)(!nded Rad"o ree E!rope, Ser5"a needs to 6a1e "t '-ear to Ban@a L!1a Cthat Bosn"a#s Ser5s 6!st see1 so-!t"ons to the"r pro5-e6s "n Sara@e,o and not "n Be-+rade0D Instead o( s!'h hea,y) handedness, the U0S0 sho!-d (ores4ear (!rther "nter,ent"on "n Ser5"an po-"t"'s, e"ther d"re't-y or thro!+h +o,ern6ent (!nded "nst"t!tes and NGOs0 The U0S0 a-so sho!-d red!'e trade 5arr"ers to Ser5"an 'o66er'e, to en'o!ra+e pr",ate e'ono6"' t"es0 Ethn"' tens"on re6a"ns a dan+ero!s !nder'!rrent "n the (or6er Y!+os-a, rep!5-"' o( Ma'edon"a, 4h"'h "s e((e't",e-y d","ded "nto S-a,"' and A-5an"an re+"ons0 I( 3oso,o e,ent!a--y s!''eeds as an "ndependent state, "t 6"+ht 'reate an e,en +reater dra4 (or ethn"' A-5an"ans0 In add"t"on, S1op@e re6a"ned -o'1ed "n a 5"tter d"sa+ree6ent 4"th Gree'e o,er "ts !se o( the na6e Ma'edon"a0 .h"-e the U0S0 sho!-d en'o!ra+e the t4o ne"+h5ors to sett-e the na6e "ss!e, "t sho!-d not (!rther eGpand NATO "nto the Ba-1ans, 4h"'h "s a se'!r"ty 5-a'1 ho-e0 I( the EU 4"shes to atte6pt to pa'"(y the Ba-1ans, "t "s 4e-'o6e to do so0 The end o( the Co-d .ar sho!-d ha,e -ed to a reth"n1"n+ o( A6er"'a#s ro-e "n NATO0 B!t po-"'"n+ the Ba-1ans t!rned "nto a @!st"("'at"on (or eGpand"n+ the a--"an'e and "n'reas"n+ U0S0 6"-"tary 'o66"t6ents0 Espe'"a--y no4, 4"th so 6any respons"5"-"t"es e-se4here, the U0S0 sho!-d 5e+"n rat"ona-"*"n+ "ts (ore"+n and 6"-"tary po-"'"es, t!rn"n+ o!ts"de respons"5"-"ty (or the Ba-1ans o,er to E!rope0 The E!ropeans 6ay 4h"ne a5o!t U0S0 d"sen+a+e6ent, 5!t the pro'ess 4o!-d 5e sa-!tary (or the60 or years -ead"n+ E!ropean o(("'"a-s ha,e pro6oted a separate E!ropean de(ense and (ore"+n po-"'y0 Yet these e((orts ha,e ro!t"ne-y 'o6e to na!+ht, s"n'e there 4as no press"n+ need 29

(or the E!ropeans to sh"(t (!nds (ro6 !ndo!5ted-y eGpens",e 4e-(are states to see6"n+-y !nne'essary 6"-"tar"es0 ."th the A6er"'an sa(ety net 4"thdra4n, the E!ropeans 4o!-d ha,e to re'ons"der the"r se'!r"ty re8!"re6ents0 Bosnia the #nvia)le H Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na 'ont"n!es to 5e r!n -ar+e-y 5y a--"ed d"1tat a de'ade and a ha-( a(ter "ts 'reat"on, ,!-nera5-e to ethn"' separat"s6 4"th"n and -a'1"n+ a ,"a5-e e'ono6y0 There "s 6!'h 4a"-"n+ and +nash"n+ o( teeth "n .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-s a-"1e o,er Bosn"a#s (a"-!re to 5-osso6 "nto a 'o6p-"ant 4o!-d)5e 6e65er o( the EU as p-anned0 V"'e Pres"dent =oseph B"den th!s 'h"ded -o'a- -eaders, and espe'"a--y the Ser5s, (or (a"-"n+ to heed the"r (ore"+n 5etters0 The ("+ht"n+ "n Bosn"a 4as 5"tter and 'ost-y, tho!+h ad,o'ates o( "nter,ent"on ro!t"ne-y eGa++erated 'as!a-t"es (or po-"t"'a- e((e't0 .estern 6"-"tary press!re a+a"nst the Bosn"an Ser5s and e'ono6"' san't"ons a+a"nst Ser5"a -ed to the 2&&< 'on(eren'e "n /ayton0 The so) 'a--ed /ayton A+ree6ent 'reated a (edera- Bosn"an state, 4"th"n 4h"'h the Bosn"a1)Croat"an ederat"on and the RS 'o!-d eGer'"se s!5stant"aa!tono6y0 The a--"es 'reated the O(("'e o( the H"+h Representat",e to r!n the terr"tory -"1e an "6per"a- +o,ernor o( o-d0 .hen the .estern a--"es spo1e o( de6o'ra'y, they 6eant the e-e't"on o( 'o6p-"ant o(("'"a-s 4"--"n+ to "6p-e6ent po-"'"es de'"ded 5y the "6per"a- po4ers "rrespe't",e o( the 4"shes o( the "+norant -o'a-s0 The res!-ts ha,e 5een d"sappo"nt"n+0 There "s -"tt-e se-() s!sta"n"n+ e'ono6"' +ro4th, as stat"st e'ono6"' po-"'"es d"s'o!ra+e entreprene!rsh"p and 5!s"ness 'reat"onI Bosn"a has 5een ran1ed n!65er 2$2 "n the 4or-d "n ter6s o( e'ono6"' (reedo6, and 4e-5e-o4 a,era+e on 5!s"ness (reedo6, +o,ern6ent s"*e, property r"+hts, 'orr!pt"on, and -a5or (reedo60 Irena =an1!-o,, an e'ono6"st 4"th the Internat"ona- Monetary !nd, 'o6p-a"ns that the Co,era5!ndan'e o( p!5-"' se'tor o(("'"a-s "s "6ped"n+ +ro4th0D The .est has po!red 5"--"ons o( do--ars "nto "ts nat"on)5!"-d"n+ pro@e't, 5!t e,en as S<02 5"--"on 4as 5e"n+ C"n,estedD "n Bosn"a, reported the !e$ &ork 'imesE 30

CAs 6!'h as a 5"--"on do--ars has d"sappeared (ro6 p!5-"' (!nds or 5een sto-en (ro6 "nternat"ona- a"d pro@e'ts thro!+h (ra!d0D Po-"t"'a- ad,an'es, too, ha,e 5een s-o40 reedo6 Ho!se reports that Bosn"a re6a"ns +de("'"ent "n ter6s o( +o,ernan'e, "ndependent 6ed"a, and 'orr!pt"on0 E-e't"ons ha,e 5een do6"nated 5y ethn"' po-"t"'s, res!-t"n+ "n (re8!ent "nter,ent"ons 5y the H"+h Representat",e to o,ert!rn the peop-e#s 'ho"'es0 Indeed, 6ost o( the H"+h Representat",es +-or"ed "n the ar5"trary eGer'"se o( the"r po4er0 .o-(+an+ Petr"ts'h anno!n'ed that he Cd"d not hes"tate to !se 6y a!thor"ty to "6pose -e+"s-at"on and d"s6"ss o(("'"a-s0D In -ate $%%; h"s s!''essor, M"ros-a, La@Ta1 o( S-o,a1"a, 'r"t"'"*ed the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a ARSB (or 5e"n+ "n Copen de("an'eD o( the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty A4hate,er that "sB, add"n+E C.e don#t ha,e to +o 5a'1 too (ar "nto the h"story to see ho4 de(y"n+ the "nternat"ona'o66!n"ty !s!a--y ends !p0D He a-so de6anded that -o'a- -eaders Cstop 'r"t"'"*"n+D h"60 Boss T4eed 4o!-d 5e @ea-o!s0 A-tho!+h Bosn"a theoret"'a--y "s on the path to EU 6e65ersh"p, the 8!as")state has not 6et the re8!"re6ents to a--o4 ,"sa) (ree tra,e- thro!+ho!t E!rope0 Less than ha-( o( the pop!-at"on eGpresses any enth!s"as6 (or @o"n"n+ the EU0 Morton A5ra6o4"t* and /an"e- Ser4er ad6"tted, CBosn"a "s a non(!n't"on"n+ state0D =an M!s at the Un",ers"ty o( Maastr"'ht 4rote o( Cthe 6a"n Bosn"an pro5-e6s, na6e-y the "ne(("'"en'y o( the state "nst"t!t"ons, the e'ono6"' !nder) de,e-op6ent, the har6(!- d","s"on o( 'o6peten'es 5et4een the state and the re+"ons, and the -a'1 o( re'on'"-"at"on 5et4een three F'onst"t!ent# nat"ons0D That#s 8!"te a -"st0 +hose Ser)s A0ain1 H .hat 6ost !psets U0S0 and E!ropean o(("'"a-s "s the (a"-!re o( so6e 6"--"on and a ha-( Ser5s o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na to 'heer(!--y a''ept a--"ed d"'tates0 In /e'e65er $%%; La@Ta1 'o6p-a"ned that the RS sho!-d Cstop pro,o1"n+ the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty and 5e ser"o!s, state)6a1"n+ partners0D 31

The Ser5s ha,e @ea-o!s-y +!arded the"r a!tono6y, re(!s"n+, (or "nstan'e, to "nte+rate the"r po-"'e (or'e 4"th that o( the ederat"on0 3oso,o#s de'-arat"on o( "ndependen'e !nderstanda5-y has -ed to "n'reased Bosn"an Ser5 "nterest "n "ndependen'e0 A-tho!+h RS pr"6e 6"n"ster M"-orad /od"1 re"terates h"s s!pport (or /ayton and the EU, he a-so has threatened to ho-d an "ndependen'e re(erend!6 "( the Ser5s are (!rther p!shed "nto a 'entra-"*ed str!'t!re0 That e-"'"ted ,ehe6ent den!n'"at"ons (ro6 .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-s0 =a6es Lyons o( so6eth"n+ 'a--ed /e6o'rat"*at"on Po-"'y Co!n'"- sees /od"1 en+a+ed "n a stea-th 'a6pa"+n, e6!-at"n+ CMontene+ro#s +rad!a- path to "ndependen'e 5y 5-o'1"n+ state "nst"t!t"ons (ro6 (!n't"on"n+ and atte6pt"n+ to ta1e state)-e,e'o6peten'"es (or h"s ent"ty, 4h"-e atte6pt"n+ to '-a"6 attr"5!tes o( so,ere"+nty (or Rep!5-"1a Srps1a0D Rad"o ree E!rope 'o6p-a"ned that CIn /od"1#s ,"e4, the (!t!re o( the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a "s sa(eM"t "s Bosn"a that 4"-- not -ast0 H"s arro+an'e Q "s an "nternat"ona- @"5e 6eant to annoy h"s po-"t"'a- partners and (or'e M!s-"6 and Croat -eaders to as1 (or an ethn"' Fd",or'e#0D The e((rontery o( p!rs!"n+ the a+enda o( Ban@a L!1a "nstead o( .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-sJ On'e 'a--ed Cthe 6ost pro6"s"n+ yo!n+ Bosn"an po-"t"'"an o( h"s +enerat"onD 5y R"'hard Ho-5roo1e and Ca 5reath o( (resh a"rD 5y Made-e"ne A-5r"+ht, he no4 "s deno!n'ed as an !-tranat"ona-"st0 Ho-5roo1e '-a"6s that C/od"1#s a't"ons ha,e 5een (!e--ed 5y R!ss"an en'o!ra+e6ent and petrodo--ars0D Ian Traynor o( the %uardian 'a--ed /od"1 Cthe 5"++estD pro5-e6 "n Bosn"a0 V"'e Pres"dent B"den sa"d Con 6any o''as"ons /od"1 has not 5een he-p(!-0D He-p(!- "n ad,an'"n+ the U0S0 and EU a+enda, that "s0 /od"1 4as s!pposed to ser,e the "nterests o( the Un"ted States and the E!ropean !n"on, rather than those o( h"s peop-e0 The pre(eren'es o( those 4ho e-e'ted /od"1 and other RS o(("'"a-s are "rre-e,ant0 Choos"n+ to represent the6 has earned h"6 !n"(or6 o5-o8!y a5road0 The atta'1s "nd"'ate that .ash"n+ton and Br!sse-s are 4orr"ed0 The 32

open"n+ sa-,o 'a6e "n O'to5er $%%;, 4hen Paddy Ashdo4n and R"'hard Ho-5roo1e '-a"6ed, "n a @o"nt art"'-e p!5-"shed "n se,erarespe'ted da"-"es on 5oth s"des o( the At-ant"', that Cthe d","s"on o( Bosn"a that 4as O4ar 'r"6es s!spe't Rado,an 3aradU"N#sP drea6 "s no4 6ore -"1e-y than at any t"6e s"n'e he 5e'a6e a (!+"t",e0D Messrs0 Ashdo4n and Ho-5roo1e (!rther 'ontended that Cthe 'o!ntry "s "n readan+er o( 'o--apse0D The"r -"1e)6"nded 'o--ea+!es Morton A5ra6o4"t* and /an"e- Ser4er 4orr"ed a5o!t Bosn"a s-"d"n+ Cto4ard +reater "nsta5"-"ty,D 4"th Cthe U0S0 6ost on the s"de-"nes,D e,en tho!+h CA6er"'a#s 6ass",e "n,est6ent "n the re+"on "n the2&&%s 6ay +o the 4ay o( the s!5pr"6e 6ar1et0D Re(-e't"n+ s"6"-ar 'on'erns, V"'e Pres"dent B"den -e't!red h"s 4ay thro!+h the Ba-1ans "n May $%%&0 CTh"s 6!st stop,D he to-d the Bosn"an par-"a6entE CYo!r on-y rea- path to a se'!re and prospero!s (!t!re "s to @o"n E!rope0D The nat"ona-"st rhetor"' 6!st end as peop-e 4or1 a'ross ethn"' and party -"nes, -est Bosn"a Cdes'end "nto ethn"' 'haos that de("ned the 'o!ntry (or the 5etter part o( a de'ade0D Most E!ropeans are not enth!sed a5o!t an atte6pt 5y .ash"n+ton to se"*e 'ontro- o( Bosn"a#s a+enda, (ear"n+ that the res!-t 4o!-d 5e s-ed+eha66er ta't"'s that 4o!-d destroy Bosn"a0 It "s hard to see ho4 Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na 'an 4or1 as a rea- 'o!ntry0 Most Croats and Ser5s (ee- -oya-ty to ne"+h5or"n+ nat"on states do6"nated 5y the"r o4n ethn"' +ro!ps0 The M!s-"6s ha,e 5e+!n to e6phas"*e the"r o4n "dent"ty, 6andat"n+ 3oran -essons "n on'e 6!-t")ethn"' Sara@e,o0 .h"-e the a--"ed o''!pat"on 'o!-d stop 4"despread ,"o-en'e and 1"--"n+, "t 'o!-d not 1"nd-e 4ar6 (ee-"n+s o( nat"ona- 'o6radesh"p0 There "s no reason (or the U0S0 and E!rope to (or'e Bosn"a to re6a"n a !n"("ed state0 And 4hate,er Bosn"a#s (!t!re, "t "s o( -"tt-e "nterest to the U0S0 EGa't-y 4hy .ash"n+ton sho!-d 'are a5o!t, -et a-one "ns"st that Bosn"a#s Croats and Ser5s re6a"n 4"th"n a 'o!ntry 'a--ed Bosn"a has ne,er 5een eGp-a"ned0 I( the E!ropeans 5e-"e,e th"s to 5e an "6portant +oa-, then -et the6 p!rs!e 4hat a6o!nts to a 'o-on"a33

pro@e't0 It "s not "n A6er"'a#s "nterest to do so, 4hether 4"th troops, 6oney, or d"p-o6a'y0 Senseless #2S2 Meedlin0 3 .ash"n+ton#s "ns"sten'e on "nter,en"n+ so deep-y "n a re+"on that "s not e,en o( per"phera- se'!r"ty "nterest to the Un"ted States ne,er 6ade sense0 I( anyone had an "nterest "n atte6pt"n+ to 6ana+e Y!+os-a,"a#s d"sso-!t"on "t 4as the E!ropean Un"on, and "( the E!ropeans d"dn#t 5e-"e,e that o5@e't",e to 5e 4orth 6"-"tary "nter,ent"on, "t 'erta"n-y d"d not 4arrant A6er"'an "n,o-,e6ent0 It a-4ays "s eas"er to +et "nto than o!t o( a +eopo-"t"'a- tar p"t0 .ash"n+ton sho!-d eGtr"'ate "tse-( (ro6 the re+"on, "n"t"a--y 5y 5r"n+"n+ ho6e "ts re6a"n"n+ troops and '!tt"n+ o(( a"d (!nds0 .ash"n+ton sho!-d 6a1e '-ear that the peop-es o( the Ba-1ans 6!st 'reate the"r o4n dest"n"es0 It "s not A6er"'a#s p-a'e to "6pose "ts pre(erred ,ers"on o( nat"ons, po-"t"es, 'onst"t!t"ons, -a4s, or any other po-"t"'a- or -e+aarran+e6ents0 To the eGtent that o!ts"de po4ers sho!-d 5e "n,o-,ed, "t "s the E!ropeans0 I( they are so "n'-"ned, -et the6 o,ersee the Ba-1ans s0 In ret!rn, the U0S0 sho!-d pro6"se not to he'tor or se'ond +!ess the E!ropeans0 The Ba-1ans "s o( a per"phera- "nterest (or A6er"'a0 The U0S0 no -on+er 'an a((ord to 4aste s!'h e((orts on s!'h (r",o-o!s 'o66"t6ents0 Nor, (ran1-y, 'an the Ba-1ans peop-e a((ord "t any -on+er0 .h"-e the po-"'"es are (or6!-ated at -"tt-e apparent eGpense "n 4e--)appo"nted o(("'es 5y 4e--)pa"d o(("'"a-s "n the "6per"a- '"ty o( .ash"n+ton, the h"+h 'osts are pa"d 5y rea- peop-e -","n+ "n rea- to4ns "n rea- 'o!ntr"es "n the re+"on0 It "s t"6e A6er"'a -e(t the Ba-1ans to the peop-es o( the Ba-1ans0

34

A Matter of Princi le! Bosnia and the "# Rona-d L0 Hat'hett2

ne o( the 6ost tro!5-"n+ th"n+s a5o!t the "nternat"onarea't"on to the Ba-1an s"t!at"on s"n'e the 2&&%#s "s the -a'1 o( 'ons"stent pr"n'"p-e "n U0S0 and EU po-"'y to4ards the re+"on0 .hen Croat"an and S-o,en"an nat"ona-"sts !n"-atera--y de'-ared the"r "ndependen'e (ro6 Y!+os-a,"a "n 2&&2, the EU, (o--o4ed 5y the U0S0, re'o+n"*ed these 6o,es as a -e+"t"6ate eGpress"on o( nat"onase-()deter6"nat"on0.hen Bosn"a a-so anno!n'ed "ts !n"-ateraseparat"on (ro6 Y!+os-a,"a "n 2&&$, on the 5as"s o( a sta+e)6ana+ed re(erend!6 4h"'h ,"o-ated Bosn"a#s o4n 'onst"t!t"on, the EU and U0S0 a+a"n ,a-"dated the a't"on on the 5as"s o( the r"+ht o( se-() deter6"nat"on0 One 'o!-d 8!est"on 4hether th"s 4as +ood po-"'y, 5!t at -east the po-"'y appeared to 5e 5ased on a pr"n'"p-e 4h"'h +a"ned pro6"nen'e as part o( the proposa-s Pres"dent .oodro4 ."-son ad,an'ed "n ear-y 2&2; (or shap"n+ a ne4 E!rope "n the e,ent!aa(ter6ath o( the Great .ar0 B!t 4hen Ser5 pop!-at"ons "n Croat"a and Bosn"a, and Croat"ans "n Bosn"a, tr"ed to assert the pr"n'"p-e o( se-() deter6"nat"on to 'ontro- the"r o4n dest"n"es "n the rap"d-y sh"(t"n+
2

/r0 Rona-d Lester Hat'hett, Co-0 USA ARet0B, 4as a sen"or /o/ o(("'"a!nder Pres"dent Rea+an0 He "s /"re'tor o( the Center (or G-o5a- St!d"es and pro(essor o( "nternat"ona- re-at"ons at S'hre"ner Un",ers"ty "n 3err,"--e, TeGas0

35

Ba-1ans po-"t"'a- str!'t!re, the EU and the U0S0 a5r!pt-y rep-a'ed the pr"n'"p-e o( se-()deter6"nat"on as a +!"de to 5!"-d"n+ a ne4 E!rope 4"th the pr"n'"p-e o( 6!-t")'!-t!ra-"s60 The "dea no4 4as that the ,ar"o!s peop-es o( the Ba-1ans sho!-d -",e "n har6ony 4"th"n the 5o!ndar"es o( the ne4-y de'-ared states Ae,en tho!+h these 5o!ndar"es 4ere ar5"trar"-y esta5-"shed 5y T"to#s re+"6eB0 Th"s pr"n'"p-e re(-e'ted the th"n1"n+ o( the E!roph"-e so'"aen+"neers "n Br!sse-s 4ho en,"s"on a (!t!re E!ropean "dent"ty that e'-"pses nat"ona- "dent"ty as E!ropeans# pre)e6"nent se-()"6a+e0 It a-so 4as 'ons"stent 4"th the Cne4 4or-d orderD th"n1"n+ o( the G0H0.0 B!sh and C-"nton ad6"n"strat"ons0 The 4"sdo6 o( th"s po-"'y "s not e,en de5ata5-eE "t 'onde6ned the peop-es o( th"s re+"on to (o!r years o( "nter)ethn"' ("+ht"n+ 4"th tho!sands 1"--ed or 6a"6ed and e,en 6ore d"sp-a'ed (ro6 the"r ho6es0 .hen pea'e ("na--y 'a6e "n 2&&<, "t 4as 5ased on "nternat"onaa''eptan'e o( the (or'ed re6o,a- o( near-y a-- Ser5s (ro6 the"r an'estra- ho6es "n the 3ra@"na area o( Croat"a, and a Bosn"a and Her*e+o,"na 'o6pr"sed o( a -oose !n"on o( t4o ent"t"es0 The 'onst"t!t"on o( the ne4 Bosn"a 4as a't!a--y enshr"ned "n the /ayton A+ree6ent that ended the ("+ht"n+0 It esta5-"shed Bosn"a as a s"n+-e state 5!t +!aranteed ea'h ethn"' +ro!p the r"+ht to 'ontro- 6ost aspe'ts o( the"r day)to)day -",es thro!+h a!tono6o!s +o,ern6ents "n ea'h rep!5-"'0 The on-y rea- po4er +",en to the 'entra- +o,ern6ent 4as the r"+ht to represent Bosn"a "n "nternat"ona- 6atters0 Th!s, pea'e "n Bosn"a s"n'e 2&&< has rested on respe't (or the se-()r!-e o( ea'h peop-e o,er the"r o4n terr"tory and so'"et"es0 In 2&&;)&&, U0S0 and EU Ba-1an po-"'y 6ade another a5r!pt re,ersa-, th"s t"6e re+ard"n+ 3oso,o, an a!tono6o!s pro,"n'e o( Ser5"a0 Th"s an'"ent ho6e-and and sp"r"t!a- 'enter o( the Ser5s had seen a steady en'roa'h6ent o( ethn"' A-5an"ans s"n'e the end o( .or-d .ar II0 By the 2&;%s the A-5an"ans 4ere near-y &% per'ent o( the pop!-at"on 5!t on-y one)se,enth o( the o,era-- pop!-at"on o( Ser5"a0 36

The A-5an"ans !sed the"r -o'a- 6a@or"ty and ne4 po-"t"'a- po4ers to 5e+"n to "nt"6"date non)A-5an"ans "n 3oso,o0 Inter)ethn"' tens"ons 4orsened thro!+ho!t the 2&;%s0 By the -ate 2&&%s ,"o-ent o!t5rea1s a+a"nst Y!+os-a, state a!thor"t"es 5y an ar6ed +ro!p 'a--"n+ "tse-( the 3oso,o L"5erat"on Ar6y A3LA, UC3 "n A-5an"anB 5e'a6e (re8!ent, res!-t"n+ "n a (!rther "n'rease "n e6"+rat"on o( 3oso,o Ser5s and other ethn"' +ro!ps0 The 3LA 4as 5randed a terror"st +ro!p 5y the U0S0 State /epart6ent at th"s t"6e0 As the Y!+os-a, +o,ern6ent stepped !p "ts e((ort "n the 2&&%s to restore order and preser,e the "nte+r"ty o( the state, the U0S0 and EU re,ersed the"r pre,"o!s 'o66"t6ent to the 6!-t")'!-t!ra- "dea- and ret!rned to the pr"n'"p-e o( se-()deter6"nat"on, say"n+ that ,"o-en'e 5y 3oso,o A-5an"ans 4as a -e+"t"6ate 6an"(estat"on o( the pr"n'"p-e0 The pro'ess '!-6"nated "n a U0S0VEUVNATO !-t"6at!6 at Ra65o!"--et "n e5r!ary 2&&&, 4h"'h e((e't",e-y to-d Y!+os-a,"a to s!rrender de (a'to so,ere"+nty o,er 3oso,o to NATO and the A-5an"ans, or (a'e NATO 6"-"tary a't"on0 The Y!+os-a,s re(!sed and !nder4ent an "ntense NATO 5o65ard6ent 5et4een Mar'h $7 and =!ne 2%, 2&&&0 The a+ree6ent end"n+ the 'on(-"'t O(!SCR )*++ ,rinciples for -oso.o ,eaceP pro,"ded (or 3oso,o to re6a"n a part o( Y!+os-a,"a and (or Y!+os-a,"a to 'ontro- 3oso,o 5orders and Ser5"an '!-t!ras"tes0 Un(ort!nate-y the UNSC 2$77 pro,"s"ons 4ere ne,er (!--y "6p-e6ented0 Y!+os-a, se'!r"ty (or'es 4ere ne,er a--o4ed to ta1e !p pos"t"ons on the (ront"ers o( 3oso,o or at Ser5"an '!-t!ra- s"tes0 A E!ropean Un"on R!-e o( La4 M"ss"on "n 3oso,o, AEULERB e,ent!a--y rep-a'ed the Un"ted Nat"ons Inter"6 Ad6"n"strat"on M"ss"on "n 3oso,o AUNMI3P, a-tho!+h R!ss"a and Ser5"a, a6on+ others, 'ons"dered the EU 6"ss"on "--e+a-0 A-5an"an ethn"' '-eans"n+ atta'1s a+a"nst Ser5 and other non) A-5an"an +ro!ps 4ere !n'he'1ed 5y the EU)-ed (or'es0 /!r"n+ the years o( "nternat"ona- 'ontro-, o,er $%%,%%% non)A-5an"ans "n 3oso,o 4ere dr",en (ro6 the"r ho6es0 In Mar'h $%%7, (or eGa6p-e, ethn"' 37

A-5an"ans too1 part "n a three)day 4a,e o( atta'1s on Ser5s and other 6"nor"t"es, as 4e-- as on Un"ted Nat"ons 5!"-d"n+s and property0 N"neteen peop-e 4ere 1"--ed and 7,%%% 4ere (or'ed (ro6 the"r ho6es0 Add"t"ona- >7 Chr"st"an 'h!r'hes and 6onaster"es, 6any o( the6 'ent!r"es o-d, 4ere destroyed0 /esp"te th"s re'ord o( ,"o-en'e the EU and U0S0 a'8!"es'ed to a !n"-atera- A-5an"an de'-arat"on o( "ndependen'e on 2: e5r!ary $%%; and on 2< =!ne $%%; the EU representat",es "n 3oso,o t!rned o,er po4er to a ne4 3oso,o)A-5an"an +o,ern6ent0 The ne4 C'o!ntryD "s hard-y an eGa6p-e o( po-"t"'a-, e'ono6"' and so'"a- s!''ess0 A(ter e"+ht years as an "nternat"ona- prote'torate and 5"--"ons o( do--ars "n a"d, "ts e'ono6"' prospe'ts are +r"60 Or+an"*ed 'r"6e "s 5"+ 5!s"nessE dr!+s, prost"t!t"on, +!ns0 Non)A-5an"ans ha,e 5een herded "nto s6a--er and s6a--er en'-a,es0 St"--, EU nat"ons, 4"th the eG'ept"on o( Spa"n, Gree'e, Cypr!s, S-o,a1"a, and Ro6an"a, ha,e re'o+n"*ed the A-5an"an) 'ontro--ed +o,ern6ent, as has the Un"ted States0 R!ss"a, Ch"na, Ind"a, and a host o( 'o!ntr"es "n So!th A6er"'a, A(r"'a and As"a ha,e yet to do so0 It 4as nat!ra- there(ore (or the Ser5s o( the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a to 4onder "( the 3oso,o e,ents 6eant that there "s a ne4 "nternat"onanor6 "n p-a'e a--o4"n+ the6 to "n,o1e the se-()deter6"nat"on pr"n'"p-e to rea-"*e the"r o4n nat"ona- asp"rat"ons0 The ans4er they are +ett"n+ "s '-earE a5so-!te-y not, the pr"n'"p-e o( 6!-t")'!-t!ra- "n'-!s",eness st"-app-"es "n Bosn"a and 3oso,o0 The ar+!6ent (or th"s po-"'y 6ost o(ten !sed 5y EU and U0S0 a!thor"t"es "s that Bosn"a and 3oso,o 6!st stren+then the"r 6!-t")'!-t!ra- 'ohes"on so that they 'an 6eet the re8!"re6ents (or 6e65ersh"p "n the EU0 The +enera- re8!"re6ents (or EU 6e65ersh"p are o!t-"ned "n the so)'a--ed Copenha+en Cr"ter"a, set o!t "n /e'e65er 2&&> 5y the E!ropean Co!n'"-0 These 'r"ter"a re8!"re a 'and"date 'o!ntry to ha,eE Sta5-e "nst"t!t"ons that +!arantee de6o'ra'y, the r!-e o( -a4, h!6an r"+hts and respe't (or and prote't"on o( 6"nor"t"esI

38

 A (!n't"on"n+ 6ar1et e'ono6y and the a5"-"ty to 'ope 4"th the press!re o( 'o6pet"t"on and the 6ar1et (or'es at 4or1 "ns"de the Un"onI
A5"-"ty to ass!6e the o5-"+at"ons o( 6e65ersh"p, "n part"'!-ar adheren'e to the o5@e't",es o( po-"t"'a-, e'ono6"' and 6onetary !n"on0 On the (a'e o( "t, Rep!5-"1a Srps1a and Ser5"an 3oso,o 6eet these re8!"re6ents, 5!t Br!sse-s 5!rea!'rats ha,e 'o6p"-ed pa+es o( spe'"("' 'han+es they say 6!st 5e 6ade "n the stat!s 8!o 5e(ore a''ess"on to EU 6e65ersh"p 'an 5e 'ons"dered02 The spe'"("'s are -on+ and ard!o!s to read, 5!t the +"st "s s"6p-eE a!tono6y o( the ethn"' s!5d","s"ons 6!st 5e +",en !p and po-"t"'a- 'ontro- 'on'entrated "n the 'entra- +o,ern6ent0 .h"-e EU state6ents on the prospe'ts o( Bosn"a#s @o"n"n+ the EU '"te e'ono6"' and -e+a- "ss!es that need re(or6, "t "s '-ear that po-"t"'a- 'han+e "s the rea- pr"'e o( ad6"ss"on0 A6on+ the h"+hest pr"or"ty 'han+es en,"s"oned "n the re(eren'ed do'!6ent areE Ens!re that State)-e,e- 6"n"str"es and "nst"t!t"ons are ade8!ate-y ("nan'ed, operat"ona- and proper-y e8!"pped0

Stren+then ad6"n"strat",e 'apa'"ty Oo( the 'entra- +o,ern6entP "n preparat"on (or "6p-e6ent"n+ Sta5"-"sat"on and Asso'"at"on A+ree6ent ASAAB$ and Inter"6 A+ree6ent AIAB 'o66"t6ents0 Ta1e 6eas!res to a'h"e,e 6ore (!n't"ona- and s!sta"na5-e "nst"t!t"ona- str!'t!res and 5etter respe't (or h!6an r"+hts and
1

A 'o6prehens",e s!66ary o( these re8!"re6ents 'an 5e (o!nd "n $%%;V$22VECE Co!n'"- /e'"s"on o( 2; e5r!ary $%%; on the pr"n'"p-es, pr"or"t"es and 'ond"t"ons 'onta"ned "n the E!ropean Partnersh"p 4"th Bosn"a and Her*e+o,"na and repea-"n+ /e'"s"on $%%?V<<VEC0 fficial /ournal 0 121 3 )45165*112 ,7 11)2 - 116) The SAA "s the ,eh"'-e the EU "s !s"n+ to en'o!ra+e Cre(or6D o( Bosn"a#s 'onst"t!t"on0 A''ord"n+ to the E!ropean Co66"ss"onE 'he purpose of the Stabilisation and #ssociation ,rocess is to establish special relations bet$een the countries concerned and the (nion in exchange for reforms $ith a .ie$ to accession3 $hich $ill in.ol.e aligning their legislation more closely $ith that of the Community7
2

39

(!nda6enta- (reedo6s, "n'-!d"n+ 5y a+ree"n+ and adopt"n+ 'han+es to the 'onst"t!t"on o( Bosn"a and Her*e+o,"na, as ne'essary0 An SAA 5et4een the EU and the Bosn"an 'entra- +o,ern6ent 4as "n"t"a-ed on 7 /e'e65er $%%: and s"+ned on 2? =!ne $%%;0 The 'entra- +o,ern6ent (ore"+n 6"n"ster says h"s +o,ern6ent 4"-- s!56"t an app-"'at"on (or EU 6e65ersh"p 5et4een Apr"- and =!ne $%%&0 S"n'e the s"+n"n+ o( the SAA, those 4ho 4o!-d -"1e to p!t an end to the a!tono6y o( Ser5"an areas ha,e 6o!nted an e,er "ntens"(y"n+ 'hor!s 'a--"n+ (or an end to the '!rrent 'on(ederat"on arran+e6ents and (or a 6ore a't",e U0S0 and EU ro-e "n 6a1"n+ th"s happen0 A str"dent ,o"'e "n th"s 'hor!s "s that o( Paddy Ashdo4n, the "nternat"ona- H"+h Representat",e to Bosn"a and Her*e+o,"na "n $%%$) $%%?0 On ? Apr"- $%%& he to-d the U0S0 Co66"ss"on on Se'!r"ty and Cooperat"on "n E!rope A1no4n as the U0S0 He-s"n1" Co66"ss"onB that the U0S0 6!st 4or1 4"th the EU Cto 6o,e Bosn"a and Her*e+o,"na to4ards a pos"t"on not @!st o( sta5"-"ty 5!t a-so (!n't"ona-"ty as a stateDE OTPhe pro+ress o( (or4ard 6o,e6ent o( Bosn"a and Her*e+o,"na to4ards a pos"t"on not @!st o( sta5"-"ty 5!t a-so (!n't"ona-"ty as a state has no4 6o,ed s!5stant"a--y "nto re,erse0 There are e-e6ents H -ar+e-y "n the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a H 4ho 4o!-d 4"sh to e,en !ndo the re(or6s to4ard statehood that ha,e a-ready 5een esta5-"shed0 And "ndeed, OtheyP ha,e 5een a--o4ed to do soQ Be-+rade sho!-d 5e to-d that "( "t 4ants to pro'eed to4ard EU 6e65ersh"p, "t 6!st Fa't",e-y s!pport# the EU)U0S0 po-"'y "n Bosn"a 5y te--"n+ the +o,ern6ent "n Rep!5-"1a Srps1a that the 8!est"on o( se'ess"on F4"-- not e,er 5e on the ta5-e0# So6e p-ayers 4"th"n the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on are 5eat"n+ the re(or6 dr!6 too0 R"'hard Ho-5roo1e, '!rrent-y Spe'"a- Representat",e (or A(+han"stan and Pa1"stan, 4as the -ead representat",e (or the C-"nton ad6"n"strat"on "n the Ba-1ans0 In O'to5er $%%; he 'o)4rote an op"n"on p"e'e "n the ALondonB 8aily 'elegraph 'a--"n+ (or Ca ne4 transat-ant"' po-"'y, 5a'1ed 5y .ash"n+ton#s (!-- en+a+e6ent and 40

stron+ EU 'ond"t"ona-"ty, 4h"'h 'an -ead to deeper and 5roader "nternat"ona- "n,o-,e6ent "n Bosn"a0D V"'e Pres"dent =oe B"den and Se'retary o( State H"-ary C-"nton a-so ha,e a -on+ and d"st"n+!"shed re'ord, dat"n+ (ro6 the 2&&%#s, s!pport"n+ M!s-"6 s"des "n Bosn"a) Her*e+o,"na and 3oso,o0 On h"s May $%%& ,"s"t to Bosn"a, V"'e Pres"dent B"den to-d the Sara@e,o par-"a6ent that C6a1"n+ the r"+ht 'ho"'e O(or the (!t!re o( the peop-e o( Bosn"aP 6eans that the -eaders o( th"s 'o!ntry 6!st stop the p!rs!"t o( narro4 ethn"' and po-"t"'a- "nterests "nstead o( the nat"ona"nterest0D o--o4"n+ B"den#s re6ar1s, "n an "nter,"e4 4"th Rad"o ree E!rope, M!s-"6 Pres"den'y representat",e Har"s S"-a@dU"N 6ade '-ear the 6essa+e he heardE C.e need to start 4"th re(or6s "66ed"ate-y and '-ear-y po"nt to those 4ho are 5-o'1"n+ the60D The 1"nd o( re(or6s he has "n 6"nd 4ere re,ea-ed "n an ear-"er "nter,"e4 4"th the BBCE CO!r 'onst"t!t"ona- arran+e6ent "s s!'h that a't!a--y "t re4ards the a++ress"on and +eno'"de and ethn"' '-eans"n+ and so on0D 99C: Are yo! say"n+ that (or yo! the po-"t"'a- (!t!re (or Bosn"a has to rest !pon e-"6"nat"n+ the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a, 'reated !nder /aytonL That "s, the a!tono6o!s Ser5 re+"on "ns"de Bosn"aL Sila:d;i<: Yes I ha,e a d"((erent (!t!re (or Bosn"a0 IWd -"1e to see a Bosn"a not 5ased on ethn"' re+"ons0 I#6 ("+ht"n+ (or 6ore 'entra-"sed po4erQ So6et"6es (or the sa1e o( sta5"-"ty and pea'e yo! ha,e to a't!a--y do so6eth"n+, not (o--o4 the -"ne o( -east res"stan'e, and 5rea1 so6e e++s to 6a1e th"s o6e-et0 The po-"'"es e6er+"n+ "n Br!sse-s, .ash"n+ton, and Sara@e,o see6 to 'on,er+e a-on+ s"6"-ar -"nesE Bosn"a and 3oso,o ha,e no (!t!re !n-ess they +a"n 6e65ersh"p "n the E!ropean Un"on, 5!t 6e65ersh"p "n the E!ropean Un"on depends !pon the"r (or+"n+ a 6!-t") '!-t!ra- state !nder a 'entra-"*ed +o,ern6ent0 I ("nd th"s part"'!-ar-y p!**-"n+ s"n'e one o( the 6ost dyna6"' po-"t"'a- rea-"t"es !nder4ay "n the EU "s de,o-!t"on H decentrali=ation o( po4er pre'"se-y to sat"s(y se-()deter6"nat"on 'on'erns o( ethn"' 41

+ro!ps0 A FE!rope o( the Re+"ons# 5e'a6e a ra--y"n+ 'ry d!r"n+ the 2&&%s (or "nterest +ro!ps 'o66"tted to 6ore part"'"pat",e and 6ore de'entra-"*ed (or6s o( +o,ernan'e0 The 'on'ept "s o( a E!rope "n 4h"'h the po4ers o( the nat"on state are s!pposed-y seep"n+ a4ay "n t4o d"re't"ons H !p4ards to Br!sse-s as a res!-t o( a pro'ess o( e,er)'-oser "nte+rat"on and do4n4ards to the re+"ons as a res!-t o( the +ro4"n+ trend to4ards de,o-!t"on0 Spa"n, the Un"ted 3"n+do6, and Be-+"!6 are a6on+ those a't",e "n trans(err"n+ po4er (ro6 the 'enter to ethn"' re+"ons0 The se'ond art"'-e o( Spa"n#s 'onst"t!t"on o( 2&:& re'o+n"*es the r"+hts o( Cre+"ons and nat"ona-"t"esD to se-()+o,ern6ent0 Spa"n "s d","ded "nto 2: Ca!tono6o!s 'o66!n"t"es,D ea'h 4"th "ts o4n e-e'ted par-"a6ent and +o,ern6ent0 O,er the past >% years 6ore and 6ore po4ers and 6oney ha,e 5een de,o-,ed0 The re+"ona- +o,ern6ents are no4 respons"5-e (or s'hoo-s, !n",ers"t"es, hea-th, so'"a- ser,"'es, '!-t!re, !r5an and r!ra- de,e-op6ent and, "n so6e p-a'es, po-"'"n+ and e,en (ore"+n po-"'y0 Cata-an and Bas8!e terr"tor"es and pop!-at"on ha,e 5een des"+nated Cnat"ons0D These nat"ons ha,e the"r o4n po-"'e (or'e and 'o--e't the"r o4n taGes, -ess than 2% per'ent o( 4h"'h "s handed o,er to the 'entra- +o,ern6ent "n Madr"d0 /e,o-!t"on "s a-so 4e-- !nder4ay "n the U30 The FNe4 La5o!r# +o,ern6ent, (or6ed 5y Pr"6e M"n"ster Tony B-a"r "n 2&&:, 5e+an a pro'ess o( trans(err"n+ 'erta"n +o,ern"n+ po4ers to S'ot-and, Northern Ire-and and .a-es0 Thro!+h the pro,"s"ons o!t-"ned "n three 1ey p"e'es o( -e+"s-at"on, The S'ot-and A't 2&&;, The Go,ern6ent o( .a-es A't 2&&;, and The Northern Ire-and A't 2&&;, d"((er"n+ de+rees o( ho6e)r!-e 4ere de("ned (or ea'h re+"on0 B!t ea'h o( these three d"st"n't ethn"' re+"ons no4 has a +o,ern6ent 4"th -e+"s-at",e and eGe'!t",e 5ran'hes and respons"5"-"ty (or ed!'at"on, -o'a- +o,ern6ent, ho!s"n+, to!r"s6, '","- and 'r"6"na- -a4, e6er+en'y ser,"'es, e'ono6"' de,e-op6ent, a+r"'!-t!re, and sports0 Matters reser,ed to the U030 +o,ern6ent "n London "n'-!de (ore"+n po-"'y, nat"ona- se'!r"ty, ("s'a42

po-"'y, "nternat"ona- trade po-"'y, n!'-ear sa(ety, 'erta"n areas o( so'"ase'!r"ty and e6p-oy6ent po-"'y, and 'erta"n areas o( hea-th po-"'y0 /e,o-!t"on "n Be-+"!6 has a-6ost rea'hed the po"nt o( d"sso-!t"on o( the state0 Unt"- the 2&?%s, the 'o!ntry had a s"n+-e +o,ern6ent (or the 4ho-e 'o!ntry0 B!t o,er the past (o!r de'ades, a ser"es o( 'onst"t!t"ona- re(or6s ha,e de,o-,ed e,er 6ore po4ers to ethn"' +ro!ps and re+"ons0 Be-+"!6#s !n"8!e de,o-!t"on re(or6s sp-"t the 'o!ntry three 4ays H t4"'e0 In the 2&:%s, C'o66!n"t"esD 4ere set !p on the 5as"s o( -an+!a+e and '!-t!re0 They represent the /!t'h) spea1ers, ren'h)spea1ers, and the s6a-- Ger6an)spea1"n+ pop!-at"on0 Then, "n the -ate 2&:%s and 2&;%s, three +eo+raph"'a- re+"ons 4ere 'reatedE -anders to the north, .a--on"a to the so!th, and the 'ap"ta-, Br!sse-s0 Today Be-+"!6 and "ts 'onst"t!ent parts ha,e a tota- o( s"G +o,ern6ents, ea'h 4"th "ts o4n par-"a6ent and 'a5"net 6"n"sters0 The re+"ona- and 'o66!n"ty +o,ern6ents ha,e 4"de ran+"n+ po4ers o,er s!'h th"n+s as the e'ono6y, e6p-oy6ent, a+r"'!-t!re, 4ater po-"'y, ho!s"n+, p!5-"' 4or1s, ener+y, transport, the en,"ron6ent, to4n and 'o!ntry p-ann"n+, nat!re 'onser,at"on, 'red"t, and (ore"+n trade0 Another 6a@or "n'ons"sten'y "n the "dea that a''ess"on to the EU 'an on-y 5e had 5y states 4h"'h ha,e reso-,ed a-- ethn"' d","s"ons "s the (a't that Cypr!s 4as ad6"tted to the EU "n $%%70 The northern th"rd o( the "s-and has 6ade !n"-atera- de'-arat"on o( "ndependen'e as T!r1"sh Rep!5-"' o( Northern Cypr!s, separate (ro6 the +o,ern6ent re'o+n"*ed 5y the EU0 It has hosted a 6"-"tary (or'e (ro6 T!r1ey s"n'e 2&:70 B!t a''ord"n+ to the /"re'torate)Genera- (or En-ar+e6ent o( the E!ropean Co66"ss"on, the 4ho-e o( the "s-and "s "n the EU, e,en tho!+h "n the northern part o( the "s-and, "n the areas "n 4h"'h the Go,ern6ent o( Cypr!s does not eGer'"se e((e't",e 'ontro-, EU -e+"s-at"on "s s!spended "n -"ne 4"th Proto'o- 2% o( the $%%> A''ess"on Treaty0 The s"t!at"on 4"-- s!pposed-y 'han+e on'e a Cypr!s sett-e6ent enters "nto (or'e,

43

and "t 4"-- then 5e poss"5-e (or EU r!-es to app-y o,er the 4ho-e o( the "s-and0 Ho4e,er, the s!spens"on does not a((e't the persona- r"+hts o( T!r1"sh Cypr"ots as EU '"t"*ens0 They are '"t"*ens o( a Me65er State, the Rep!5-"' o( Cypr!s, e,en tho!+h they 6ay -",e "n the northern part o( Cypr!s, the areas not !nder +o,ern6ent 'ontro-0 The E!ropean Co66"ss"on a-so s!per,"ses an a"d pro+ra6 (or northern Cyr!s C(or the 5ene("t o( the T!r1"sh Cypr"ot 'o66!n"ty a"6ed at p!tt"n+ an end to the "so-at"on o( th"s 'o66!n"ty and he-p"n+ prepare (or the re!n"("'at"on o( the "s-and0D Then there "s the eGper"en'e o( the C*e'hs and S-o,a1s0 These t4o 'onst"t!ent nat"ons o( the no4)de(!n't state o( C*e'hos-o,a1"a de'"ded to part 4ays three years a(ter the (a-- o( the a!thor"tar"an 'o66!n"st +o,ern6ent0 It too1 a 6ere s"G 6onths to sp-"t the :7)year) o-d d!a- (ederat"on a(ter the =!ne 2&&$ e-e't"ons0 As se'ess"on"st 4ars ra+ed "n Y!+os-a,"a, C*e'hs and S-o,a1s pea'e(!--y a+reed to sp-"t the"r 'o!ntryWs assets and -"a5"-"t"es, shoo1 hands and 4ent separate 4ays0 Both 'o!ntr"es are no4 6e65ers o( the E!ropean Un"on0 Co!-d not the sa6e pr"n'"p-e 5e app-"ed to the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a ,"s)X),"s Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"naL I( the EU and the U0S0 eGpe't to 5e respe'ted as the -eaders o( the C"nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty,D sett"n+ and en(or'"n+ nor6s o( 5eha,"or, then they 6!st 5ase the"r po-"'"es on re'o+n"*a5-e pr"n'"p-es0 These pr"n'"p-es sho!-d 5e app-"ed 'ons"stent-y "n e,ery s"t!at"on and to4ards e,ery peop-e0 Th"s has not 5een the 'ase "n the Ba-1ans0 .h"-e atte6pt"n+ to dep"'t "ts a't"ons as 6ot",ated 5y h"+h 6ora- standards, the po-"'y o( the EU and U0S0 "n (a't has 5o!n'ed (ro6 one pr"n'"p-e to another, 4hate,er "s ne'essary to @!st"(y the o!t'o6e des"red0 The on-y rea- pr"n'"p-e apparent "n EU and U0S0 Ba-1an po-"'y o,er the past t4o de'ades see6s to 5e, CIt#s o!r po-"'y and 4e -"1e "t0D

44

A$erica%s Last Balkan Advent&re =a6es Geor+e =atras

s has 5e'o6e pa"n(!--y o5,"o!s, persona+es (ro6 the B"-C-"nton Ad6"n"strat"on, ha,"n+ ret!rned to po4er !nder Bara'1 O5a6a, ha,e 6ade "t a pr"or"ty to Creener+"*eD U0S0 po-"'y "n the Ba-1ans0 The 'onto!rs o( the"r e((ort are '-earE thrott-e the Rep!5-"1a Srps1a A!nder the +!"se o( 6o,"n+ the C/ayton pro'essD (or4ardB and se'!re +reater "nternat"ona- s!pport (or the pse!do)state de'reed 5y .ash"n+ton and "ts han+ers)on "n 3oso,o0 Both 'an 5e s!66ed !p (!rther as anta+on"s6 to4ard the 4e--)5e"n+ o( Ser5"a as a state, re+ard-ess o( "ts '!rrent Cpro).esternD 'oa-"t"on, and to4ard Ser5s "n the re+"on as a 4ho-e0 The passa+e o( Ho!se Reso-!t"on 2:2 on May 2$, $%%&, 'an 5e ta1en as a 6an"(esto o( the "n"t"at",e0 The prod!'t o( 5eh"nd)doors 'o--a5orat"on a6on+ 'o66"ttee sta((ers, ad6"n"strat"on o(("'"a-s, th"n1 tan1 CeGperts,D and pro)M!s-"6 a't","sts, "t 4as appro,ed "n the Co66"ttee on ore"+n A((a"rs 5y !nan"6o!s 'onsent A"0e0 4"tho!t a (or6a- ,oteB and adopted on the (-oor 5y ,o"'e ,ote0 The r!55er) sta6ped reso-!t"on 5y the E-e'ted Representat",es o( the Peop-e 5e'o6es part o( the Cpo-"'y)6a1"n+D pro'ess "n 4h"'h the U0S0 'o66"ts "tse-( to (!rther Cpro+ressD "n the Ba-1ans0 B!t s!'h po-"t"'atheatre sho!-d not 5e sneered atE the proponents o( A6er"'an re) "nter,ent"on th"n1 s!'h sha6s are a ne'essary part o( the"r a+enda, a-on+ 4"th or'hestrated op)eds, Fana-yses# (ro6 th"n1 tan1s, and a-- the 45

rest o( the 'ontr",ed 'a6pa"+n0 The C-"nton retreads and the"r no6"na--y Rep!5-"'an neo'onser,at",e a--"es 5e-"e,e they need s!'h 6a'h"nat"ons "n order to 'a@o-e the E!ropeans "nto yet one 6ore Ba-1an 5-!nder H and to ro-- the R!ss"ans0 The rea- p!rpose "s not hard to d"s'ern0 "rst, the /e6o'rats 4ant to po"nt to the"r Ba-1an Cs!''essD o( the 2&&%s "n 'ontrast to GOP C(a"-!reD "n Ira80 Not 6ent"oned "s that the Rep!5-"'an neo'ons 4ho (athered the Ira8 4ar are pre'"se-y the 4"n+ o( the GOP that s!pported B"-- C-"nton "n h"s Ba-1an a++ress"onI nor that 6ost o( the /e6o'rat"' Ba-1ans ha41s no4 4"sh"n+ to p"-e s!''ess on s!''ess 4ere the6se-,es ear-y s!pporters o( Geor+e .0 B!sh#s Ira8 4ar0 As d"d the"r prede'essors "n V"etna6, they on-y t!rned a+a"nst the 4ar 4hen "t 5e+an to 5e po-"t"'a--y "n'on,en"ent0 Se'ond, as 4as the 'ase "n the per"od -ead"n+ !p to the B!sh Ad6"n"strat"on#s p!sh (or the 3oso,o)A-5an"ans# U/I, a 6a@or (a'tor "s the 'h"6era o( +arner"n+ the +ood4"-- o( the Is-a6"' 4or-d thro!+h .ash"n+ton#s tr!6pet"n+ "ts s!pport (or M!s-"6s "n Bosn"a and 3oso,o0 A-- th"s pander"n+ has res!-ted "n a5so-!te-y no e,"den'e o( s!''ess0 In the M!s-"6 6"nd 4hat "s re+"stered "s not that Cthe U0S0 he-ps M!s-"6sD 5!t that Cthe U0S0 stood "d-y 5y (or too -on+ as M!s-"6s 4ere ,"'t"6"*ed0D Th"s sense o( +r"e,an'e 4as or"+"na--y 6an!(a't!red 5y the ,ery proponents o( M!s-"6 "nterests "n the Ba-1ans 4ho the6se-,es no4 ,a"n-y see1 to 'ap"ta-"*e on "t0 One 'o!-d hard-y ("nd a 5etter eGa6p-e o( the .ash"n+ton 5"part"san esta5-"sh6ent#s !tter "n'o6prehens"on o( the 6ot",es, 6"ndset and 6ethodo-o+"es o( the +-o5a- @"had"st 6o,e6ent0 The Ba-1an re"n,"+orat"on 'a6pa"+n (a'es t4o o5sta'-es0 "rst "s the E!ropean a--"es0 .h"-e no one 4o!-d e,er a''!se the E!ropeans o( ha,"n+ 'o!ra+e 4hen "t 'o6es to stand"n+ !p to the Un"ted States, there 6ay 5e a -"6"t to the"r pat"en'e0 O5a6a "s st"-- en@oy"n+ a protra'ted honey6oon 4"th the E!ropeans0 It 4o!-d 5e hard to o,erest"6ate the"r re-"e( that they ha,e seen the -ast o( the desp"sed 46

Geor+e .0 B!sh and 4hat they re+ard as the "6per"o!s, d"'tator"asty-e o( h"s ad6"n"strat"on0 Ho4 soon they (or+et that the sty-e or"+"nated not 4"th Cheney and R!6s(e-d 5!t 4"th A-5r"+ht and Ho-5roo1e, and "ndeed "n the ,ery Ba-1ans to 4h"'h these 4orth"es see1 to ret!rn 4"th the"r d!5"o!s ta-ents0 .hen, as see6s -"1e-y, they reen+a+e 4"th the sa6e so(t to!'h they !sed 5e(ore, the E!ropeans 6"+ht 5e head"n+ (or d",or'e 'o!rt sooner than ant"'"pated0 Ideo-o+y and e+o6an"a are a6on+ the +reat 5-"nders to rea-"ty, and the re'y'-ed C-"nton"stas are +reat eGe6p-ars o( 5oth0 As 'r"6"na-s ret!rn"n+ to the s'ene o( the 'r"6e, they 5e-"e,e they 'an 5!--y and 5-!ster the"r 4ay (or4ard as they d"d o,er a de'ade a+o0 L","n+ "n a 2&&%s t"6e 4arp they see6 not to not"'e that the 4or-d has 'han+ed s"n'e they -ast he-d the -e,ers o( state po4er0 The Un"ted States "s (ar 4ea1er than "t 4as "n the"r +-ory days, and re-at",e-y spea1"n+ R!ss"a, Ch"na, and Ind"a are (ar stron+er0 Apart (ro6 "ts e'ono6"' 4oes, the Un"ted States ("nds "tse-( "n t4o "ntra'ta5-e 4ars0 ."th re+ard to Ira8, O5a6a "s 5a'1peda-"n+ on h"s ear-"er p-ed+e o( an ear-y 4"thdra4a-0 In A(+han"stan he "nd"'ates a 5!--)headed deter6"nat"on to es'a-ate the 4ar there0 Loo1"n+ to 6a1e the A(+han"stan 4ar h"s o4n, as N"Gon d"d the one "n V"etna6, he has sent as spe'"a- en,oy to the A(+han)Pa1"stan 8!a+6"re H none other than R"'hard Ho-5roo1e, o( Ba-1an "n(a6y0 I( h"s ear-"er tra'1 re'ord "s any "nd"'at"on, 4e 'an -oo1 (or4ard "n the near ter6 to the 'o--apse o( the perenn"a--y dys(!n't"ona- Pa1"stan 4"th the o5,"o!s-y 'atastroph"' 'onse8!en'es0 That poss"5"-"ty "s not -ost on the E!ropeans, 4ho 4"-dra+ the"r (eet on (!rther 'o66"t6ent o( so-d"ers and 6ater"a- to the NATO 6"ss"on "n the H"nd! 3!sh as do++ed-y as they d"d d!r"n+ the pre'ed"n+ ad6"n"strat"on0 In add"t"on, "t see6s there "s no end o( d"(("'!-t"es 'on(ront"n+ the ne4 ad6"n"strat"on, 4hether (ro6 the "n'reas"n+-y errat"' 3"6 =on+)I- to the poss"5"-"ty that Israe- 6"+ht -a!n'h a str"1e on Iran#s n!'-ear (a'"-"t"es0

47

The 'r!'"a- -"n1, as a-4ays, "s 4hat 1"nd o( -eadersh"p "s 'o6"n+ (ro6 the Ser5"an s"de0 In th"s respe't Rep!5-"1a Srps1a "s "n (ar 5etter shape than Ser5"a "tse-(0 Pr"6e M"n"ster M"-orad /od"1 has 5e'o6e the Cnat"ona-"stD -"+htn"n+ rod (or e,ery s-ander, persona- or po-"t"'a-, h!6an 6a-"'e 'an drea6 !p0 Bo-stered 5y an !npre'edented -e,e- o( pop!-ar s!pport (or a post)/ayton Bosn"an Ser5 -eader, /od"1 has to date stared do4n e,ery e((ort to !nder6"ne Rep!5-"1a Srps1a#s stat!s !nder /ayton0 Co!p-ed 4"th a -e,e- o( e'ono6"' a't","ty that o!tpa'es not on-y the 6or"5!nd M!s-"6)Croat ederat"on 5!t ne"+h5or"n+ Croat"a and Ser5"a, /od"1 'an a''!rate-y '-a"6 that h"s state "s an "s-and o( re-at",e sta5"-"ty "n the re+"on0 H"s stan'e, 'o!p-ed 4"th A6er"'an o5str!'t"on o( hand"n+ (!-a!thor"ty (ro6 the h!+e po4ers o( the O(("'e o( the H"+h Representat",e to the re-at",e-y 4ea1 EU Spe'"a- Representat",e, +",es E!ropeans (!rther reason to as1 4hy they sho!-d !pset /ayton#s de-"'ate 5a-an'e o( e8!a- d"ssat"s(a't"on to p-ease the Boo6eran+ Generat"on (ro6 the 2&&%s0 .hat 4e are -e(t 4"th "s that the O5a6a Ad6"n"strat"on and "ts (e--o4)tra,e-ers, "n 5oth part"es, has a s!r(e"t o( CeGpertsD and Ca't","stsD "t'h"n+ to 1"'1 o,er the app-e'art "n the Ba-1ans 5!t a dearth o( opt"ons as to ho4 to do so0 In the dy"n+ days o( the A6er"'an Chyperpo4er,D re-at",e 4ea1ness 6ay 5e the 5est 6eans (or an "n(!s"on o( san"ty "nto o!r o,ereGtended and 6"sd"re'ted (ore"+n po-"'y0 No do!5t, there are dan+ero!s days ahead as 4e 4a"t (or rea-"ty to s"n1 "nto e,en the s6a--est 6"nds "n .ash"n+ton, as "t "ne,"ta5-y 6!st0 Unt"- that happens a -ot o( da6a+e 6"+ht st"-- 5e done, and not @!st "n the Ba-1ans0 B!t "n any 'ase, the po4er '!r,e "s a+a"nst the s!''ess o( the e((ort at reen+a+e6ent, 4h"'h has at 6ost a5o!t t4o years, perhaps (ar -ess, to a'h"e,e "ts o5@e't",es0 Let !s hope that 4"-5e the end o( A6er"'a#s "--)(ated and destr!'t",e Ba-1an ad,ent!res0

48

Fo&rth 'eneration (ar and Balkan Folly ."--"a6 S0 L"nd2

6on+ the r!6ors h"stor"ans -east -"1e hear"n+ are s!++est"ons that o!ts"de Po4ers "ntend on'e a+a"n to 6edd-e "n the Ba-1ans0 S!'h "nter,ent"on se-do6 atta"ns "ts o5@e't",es, and too o(ten "t has pro,en se-()de(eat"n+, as Otto6ans and Haps5!r+s 'an a-"1e attest0 It has 5een sa"d that the Ba-1ans tend to prod!'e 6ore h"story than they 'an 'ons!6e -o'a--y0 The 'onse8!en'es o( e,ents "n the Ba-1ans, espe'"a--y 4hen those e,ents "n,o-,e o!ts"de po4ers, ha,e o(ten eGtended (ar 5eyond the re+"on0 The death o( the .est "n the '","-"*at"ona- 'atastrophe 4e 1no4 as .or-d .ar I 5e+an "n the Ba-1ans, not on-y "66ed"ate-y 4"th the assass"nat"on o( Ar'hd!1e ran'"s erd"nand "n Sara@e,o 5!t a-so "n -ar+er or"+"ns, espe'"a--y "n the Bosn"an AnneGat"on Cr"s"s o( 2&%;0 Re+retta5-y, Se'retary o( State H"--ary C-"nton 4ants to rene4 her h!s5and#s ad6"n"strat"on#s assa!-t on the Ser5s, th"s t"6e !nder the -a5e- o( an C!n("n"shed 5!s"ness "n the Ba-1ans0D or reasons that are d"(("'!-t to 'o6prehend, the C-"ntons apparent-y re+ard the ("as'o o( the"r Ba-1an 4ars "n the 2&&%s as a s!''ess0 Its pr"n'"pa- strate+"' res!-t 4as to po"son A6er"'an)R!ss"an re-at"ons, 4"th !n(ort!nate
1

."--"a6 S0 L"nd "s the -ead"n+ a!thor"ty on o!rth Generat"on .ar(are, a pro-"("' a!thor, and /"re'tor o( the Center (or C!-t!ra- Conser,at"s6 at the ree Con+ress o!ndat"on

49

'onse8!en'es (ro6 4h"'h A6er"'an "nterests st"-- s!((er0 Lo'a--y, "t prote'ted one E!ropean 5ase (or Is-a6"' @"had"s, Bosn"a, and 'reated another, 3oso,o0 I( that "s 4hat the C-"ntons re+ard as s!''ess, "t "s d"(("'!-t to eGp-a"n 4hy U0S0 troops are ("+ht"n+ s!'h @"had"s "n Ira8 and A(+han"stan0 The t4"n o5@e't",es o( a rene4ed A6er"'an Cen+a+e6entD are to e-"6"nate Rep!5-"1a Srps1a, or red!'e "t to an e6pty she-- de,o"d o( 'onst"t!t"ona- prero+at",es, and to 'o6pe- Be-+rade to reno!n'e a-Ser5"an '-a"6s to 3oso,o and '!t o(( t"es 4"th the re6a"n"n+ Ser5s "n the pro,"n'e0 EGa't-y 4hy the Un"ted States 4o!-d 4"sh to en+a+e "n s!'h an enterpr"se "n the Ba-1ans 4hen "t has "ts hands 6ore than (!-4"th !ns!''ess(!- 4ars "n Ira8 and A(+han"stan "s d"(("'!-t to say0 The rea-"ty o( o,ereGtens"on "s so o5,"o!s one 6ay dare hope that 4"ser 6"nds "n the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on 6ay s'ot'h any s!'h p-ans0 Nonethe-ess, "t "s !se(!- to 'ons"der @!st ho4 5ad-y a rene4ed A6er"'an Cen+a+e6entD 4o!-d 5e -"1e-y to h!rt A6er"'a and ser,e "ts ene6"es0 Con,ent"ona- strate+"' ana-ys"s 6a1es the po"nt '-ear-y eno!+hE ) A6er"'a#s re-at"ons 4"th R!ss"a 4o!-d ta1e another 5-o4, @!st as U0S0 and NATO (or'es "n A(+han"stan ("nd they need a-ternate -"ne o( s!pp-y thro!+h R!ss"a0 ) NATO, a-ready stra"ned 5y the A(+han 'on(-"'t, 4o!-d s!((er (!rther "nterna- d","s"onI not a-- NATO 'o!ntr"es share the C-"ntons# enth!s"as6 (or 6a1"n+ E!rope sa(e (or @"had0 Conse8!en'es "n the Ba-1ans are pred"'ta5-e, and +reater "nsta5"-"ty "s a-6ost 'erta"n-y one o( the60 .ash"n+ton 'o!-d (a'e yet another theater de6and"n+ A6er"'an 'o66"t6ent, at a t"6e 4hen 4e ha,e no (or'es to spare0 A-- o( these 'onse8!en'es and 6ore 4o!-d (o--o4 (ro6 a't"ons "n a re+"on 4here the Un"ted States has essent"a--y no "nterests0 .e 4o!-d (a'e, "( not a C4ar o( 'ho"'eD -"1e B!sh#s Ira8 ad,ent!re, at -east 50

a ("rst '-ass 6ess o( 'ho"'e0 In ter6s o( ser,"n+ A6er"'an "nterests, 4e 4o!-d do as 4e-- to "nter,ene a6on+ the pen+!"ns o( Antar't"'a0 To !nderstand "n (!-- 4hy re)en+a+"n+ A6er"'a "n the Ba-1ans "s (o--y, 4e need to -oo1 5eyond the (ra6e4or1 o( trad"t"onad"p-o6a'y and strate+"' ana-ys"s0 In the $2st 'ent!ry, any ana-ys"s o( prospe't",e a't"ons on the 4or-d sta+e sho!-d 'ons"der a ne4 (a'torE o!rth Generat"on 4ar02 S"n'e the Pea'e o( .estpha-"a "n 2?7;, states, at ("rst "n E!rope and s!5se8!ent-y thro!+ho!t the 4or-d, ha,e 5ased the"r a't"ons on an ass!6pt"on that on-y states 4ere a'tors0 The state syste6 had a 6onopo-y, and 4"th the eG'ept"on o( an o''as"ona- Cs6a-- 4arD 4"th 'o-on"a- nat",es, 4hose o!t'o6e 4as pre)deter6"ned, a-- (ore"+n po-"'y and 'onse8!ent 6"-"tary a't"on 4as 'ond!'ted 4"th"n that 6onopo-y0 That ass!6pt"on no -on+er ho-ds0 ."th"n the -ast se,era- de'ades, the state syste6 has 5e+!n to 5rea1 do4n0 .ar has es'aped the state#s 6onopo-y esta5-"shed 5y .estpha-"a0 .hat so6e 6"-"tary theor"sts 'a-- o!rth Generat"on 4ar, the (o!rth d"a-e't"'a--y 8!a-"tat",e 'han+e "n the 'ond!'t o( 4ar "n the 6odern per"od A"0e0, s"n'e 2?7;B, "n'reas"n+-y (a'es states 4"th non) state opponents, More, !n-"1e 2&th 'ent!ry 'o-on"a- 'on(-"'ts, the o!t'o6e "s not pre)deter6"ned "n (a,or o( the state0 On the 'ontrary, "n 6ost s!'h 'on(-"'ts aro!nd the 4or-d today, "n'-!d"n+ those "n Ira8 and A(+han"stan, the state "s -os"n+0 In the (a'e o( 7G., the 6ost ,"ta"nterest o( a-- states H "n'-!d"n+ the U0S0 H "s preser,"n+ the state syste60 A't"ons s!'h as A6er"'aWs "n,as"on and o''!pat"on o( Ira8, 4h"'h destroy a state and rep-a'e "t 4"th an area o( state-ess 'haos, are (!nda6enta--y "n"6"'a- to a-- states0

Th"s 'on'ept 4as ("rst des'r"5ed "n an art"'-e "n the O'to5er, 2&;& >arine Corps %a=ette, YThe Chan+"n+ a'e o( .arE Into the o!rth Generat"onY 5y .0S0 L"nd, Co-0 30 N"+hten+a-e USA, Capt0 =0 0 S'h6"tt USMC, Co-0 =0.0 S!tton USA and Lt0 Co-0 G0I0 ."-son, USMC0

51

Any prospe't",e a't"on, s!'h as a rene4a- o( A6er"'a#s 'r!sade a+a"nst the Ser5s, 6!st 5e e,a-!ated ("rst and (ore6ost (ro6 th"s prospe't",e0 The 'entra- 8!est"on 6!st 5e, 4"-- the a't"on stren+then or 4ea1en the states "n,o-,ed and, 4"th the6, the state syste6 "tse-(L The start"n+ po"nt (or s!'h an ana-ys"s "s the 8!est"on o( -e+"t"6a'y0 The or"+"n o( o!rth Generat"on 4ar "s a +enera-"*ed 'r"s"s o( the -e+"t"6a'y o( the state0 That 'r"s"s ,ar"es +reat-y "n "ntens"ty, (ro6 p-a'es s!'h as So6a-"a 4here testate has ,an"shed to 6!'h o( A(r"'a 4here the state "s a po-"te ("'t"on to p-a'es s!'h as S4"t*er-and and 6ost 6onar'h"es 4here the -e+"t"6a'y o( the state trans'ends the de)-e+"t"6"*"n+ (o--"es o( the po-"t"'a- '-ass0 B!t th"s ,ar"at"on sho!-d not o5s'!re the 5as"' (a't a-6ost e,ery4here, the state (a'es 'r"s"s o( -e+"t"6a'y o( +reater or -esser "ntens"ty0 The or"+"n o( the 'r"s"s "s that 6ost state +o,ern6ents no -on+er represent the "nterests o( the state#s peop-e0 Instead they represent the "nterest o( a Ne4 C-ass, a +-o5a-"st e-"te that has 6ore "n 'o66on 4"th "ts 'o!nterparts "n other states than 4"th "ts o4n state#s pop!-at"on0 In +enera-, the Ne4 C-ass has three 'hara'ter"st"'sE "t 'annot 6a1e th"n+s 4or1 A'ons"der the '!rrent 4or-d)4"de e'ono6"' 'r"s"sB, "t !ses "ts pos"t"on and pr","-e+e to eGe6pt "tse-( (ro6 the 'onse8!en'es o( th"n+s not 4or1"n+ A.a-- Street +ets 5a"-ed o!t 5!t not Ma"n StreetB, and "t 'ares a5o!t on-y one th"n+, re6a"n"n+ the Ne4 C-ass0 a'ed 4"th the 'orr!pt"on o( the state, 6ore and 6ore peop-e 4or-d)4"de are trans(err"n+ the"r pr"6ary -oya-ty a4ay (ro6 the state0 They are +","n+ "t "nstead to a 4"de ,ar"ety o( other th"n+sE ra'es and ethn"' +ro!ps 4"th"n ra'es, re-"+"ons, "deo-o+"es, C'a!sesD s!'h as an"6a- r"+hts and en,"ron6enta-"s6 A"tse-( at -east a proto)"deo-o+yB, 5!s"ness enterpr"ses A-e+a- or "--e+a-B, +an+s H the ,ar"ety "s a-6ost -"6"t-ess0 Many peop-e 4ho 4"-- not ("+ht (or the state are ready, e,en ea+er, to ("+ht (or the"r ne4 pr"6ary -oya-ty0 Interest"n+-y, 6any o( 52

these ne4 pr"6ary -oya-t"es are a-so o-d0 They are 4hat peop-e +a,e the"r a--e+"an'e to 5e(ore the r"se o( the state02 A+a"n, the 6ost ,"ta"nterest o( a-- states, "n'-!d"n+ the U0S0, "s retard"n+ th"s dyna6"'0 The state syste6 "tse-( "s at sta1e0 A't"ons that !nder6"ne the -e+"t"6a'y o( other states 6!st 5e a,o"ded0 The"r -"1e-y 'onse8!en'e "s the spread o( o!rth Generat"on 4ar and an "ntens"("'at"on o( the 'r"s"s o( the state syste60 I( 4e -oo1 at the prospe't",e re)"n,o-,e6ent o( the U0S0 "n the Ba-1ans, 4"th the o5@e't",e o( "n(-"'t"n+ (!rther "n@!ry on the Ser5s, (ro6 th"s perspe't",e the 'on'-!s"ons are stron+-y 'a!t"onary0 The '!rrent Ser5"an +o,ern6entWs -e+"t"6a'y "s a-ready sha1y0 Un-"1e the M"-ose,"' +o,ern6ent, Ser5"a#s '!rrent r!-ers are "n sy6pathy 4"th the +-o5a-"st e-"te0 They earnest-y see1, a6on+ other th"n+s, Ser5"a#s a''ess"on to the E!ropean !n"on, an ant")nat"ona-"st ent"ty that has (ar -ess s!pport a6on+ E!ropean peop-es than a6on+ E!rope#s e-"tes0 Th"s Ser5"an +o,ern6ent#s e-e'tora- s!pport "s (ra+"-eI (e4 a't"ons 4o!-d 6ore stron+-y !nder6"ne "ts -e+"t"6a'y than "ts a''eptan'e o( the per6anent -oss o( 3oso,o0 Ser5s# atta'h6ent to 3oso,o, the"r an'estra- ho6e-and, "s d"(("'!-t to o,erstate0 Those 4ho !nderstand "t 6"+ht s!++est than no Ser5"an +o,ern6ent 'o!-d s!r,",e, that a''epted an !-t"6at!6 to reno!n'e 3oso,o0 V"e4ed (ro6 a o!rth Generat"on perspe't",e, press!re on Ser5"a to reno!n'e 3oso,o 4o!-d 4ea1en the Ser5"an state re+ard-ess o( ho4 "t responded0 I( "t y"e-ded, "ts +o,ern6ent 4o!-d -ose -e+"t"6a'y and so6e o( "ts peop-e 4o!-d -ose tr!st "n the state "tse-( and start a't"n+ a''ord"n+-y0 I( "t re@e'ted the de6and, Mrs0 C-"nton and her "-1 4o!-d pres!6a5-y de6and reta-"atory a't"on that 4o!-d pre,ent Ser5"a#s +o,ern6ent (ro6 de-",er"n+ 4hat "t had pro6"sed "n ret!rn (or 'ooperat"on 4"th the C"nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty,D "0e0, "6pro,ed e'ono6"' 'ond"t"ons and e,er)'-oser t"es to CE!rope0D E"ther 4ay, the +o,ern6ent, and poss"5-y the state as 4e--, (a'e a ser"o!s -oss o(
1

C(0 Mart"n ,an Cre,e-d, 'he 'ransformation of ?ar7 Ne4 Yor1E The ree Press, 2&&20

53

-e+"t"6a'y, 4h"'h "s to say that the o!t'o6e, "n ter6s o( U0S0 "nterests, "s ne+at",e0 P!tt"n+ one#s o4n 'o!ntry "n a C-ose)-oseD s"t!at"on "s +enera--y not re+arded as the p"nna'-e o( d"p-o6at"' a'h"e,e6ent0 The C+o,ern6entD o( 3oso,o "s a ("'t"on, 5e'a!se there "s no state0 3oso,o 4as ne,er a state, and ne,er 4"-- 5e one0 Its "nha5"tants "dent"(y the6se-,es as A-5an"ans Athe 6"sna6ed C3oso,arsD o( the .estern 6ed"aB or Ser5s H a (ast)d"sappear"n+ 'o66!n"ty0 3oso,o "s a ,"'tory (or the (or'es o( the o!rth Generat"on, a state-ess re+"on 4here they 'an do as they p-ease0 It "s a-ready a 5ase (or 6any s!'h ent"t"es, "n'-!d"n+ @"had"s, dr!+ s6!++-"n+ +an+s, peop-e s6!++-ers and 'r"6"na- enterpr"ses o( ,ar"o!s sorts0 The "6pro5a5"-"ty o( 3oso,o e,er 5e'o6"n+ a rea- state, re+ard-ess o( 4hat the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty 6ay do or "ntend, s!++ests that the state syste6 4o!-d 5e 5etter ser,ed 5y 6a1"n+ 3oso,o on'e a+a"n part o( a rea- state, or 6ore than one state0 The s"t!at"on "n Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na "s s"6"-ar to that "n 3oso,o0 Bosn"a 4as ne,er a state s"n'e the do6a"n o( 3"n+ T,rt1o a-6ost se,en 'ent!r"es a+o H and e,en then "t 4as @!st one o( h"s 6any "--!str"o!s do6a"ns0 Bosn"a "s not a state no4, and "t ne,er 5e a state0 The Croat)M!s-"6 (ederat"on "s !nsta5-e, a''epted ne"ther 5y Croats nor 5y Mos-e6s0 The Croats 4ant !n"on 4"th Croat"a, and the M!s-"6s 4ant to 'ontro- the 4ho-e o( Bosn"a0 There "s no 'han'e that Bosn"a 4"-- e,o-,e 5eyond that po"nt0 The one ent"ty "n Bosn"a 4"th -e+"t"6a'y der",ed (ro6 the -oya-ty o( "ts '"t"*ens "s Rep!5-"1a Srps1aI ho4e,er, "t, too, "s not a state0 Its -e+"t"6a'y spr"n+s (ro6 the (a't that "t "s a +o,ern6ent 5y the Ser5s represent"n+ the peop-e 4ho re+ard the6se-,es as Ser5s, not anyth"n+ e-se, -east o( a-- as CBosn"ans0D The state they en,"s"on 5e"n+ '"t"*ens o(, one day, "s Ser5"a0 Mean4h"-e, @!st as "n 3oso,o, the a5sen'e o( a rea- state Aand "ts "6poss"5"-"tyB render Bosn"a a happy h!nt"n+ +ro!nd (or o!rth Generat"on ent"t"es0 The M!s-"6 port"on o( Bosn"a ree1s 4"th @"had"s and +an+s o( 6any ,ar"et"es, 4ho ("nd M!s-"6 Bosn"a a !se(!- 5ase0 54

In s!6, the net e((e'ts o( the C-"ntons# Ba-1an po-"'y ha,e 5een to 4ea1en one state, Ser5"a, and 'reate t4o ne4 state-ess re+"ons, 3oso,o and Bosn"a0 I( '!rrent U0S0 po-"'"es pers"st, Ser5"a "tse-( 6"+ht 5e'o6e a ho--o4 state, 4h"-e 5oth 3oso,o and Bosn"a are doo6ed to re6a"n so0 A6er"'a 4o!-d ("nd that, "n d"re't 'ontrad"'t"on o( "ts "nterest "s 6a"nta"n"n+ and stren+then"n+ the state syste6, "t has 4ea1ened "t (!rther0 Th"s prospe't ra"ses a 8!est"onE ho4 6"+ht the Con'ert o( E!rope A4"th the U0S0 stay"n+ o!tB a't "n the Ba-1ans to stren+then the state syste6 thereL "rst, "t 'o!-d see1 to 5!ttress the Ser5"an state0 That 4o!-d 6ean (a'"-"tat"n+ Ser5"an e'ono6"' de,e-op6ent 4h"-e a--o4"n+ the Ser5"an +o,ern6ent to o((er "ts peop-e a reasona5-e prospe't o( reta"n"n+ so6e '-a"6 to 3oso,o0 So -on+ as the prospe't eG"sts, 3oso,o does not 5e'a6e a de'"s",e de)-e+"t"6"*"n+ "ss!e (or the Ser5"an +o,ern6ent0 3oso,o 4"-- re6a"n e((e't",e-y a state-ess re+"on and a ho6e to o!rth Generat"on ent"t"es !nt"- "t "s "n'orporated "nto a rea- state0 The 5est 4ay to a''o6p-"sh that +oa- "s part"t"on 5et4een A-5an"a and Ser5"a0 The esta5-"sh6ent o( a ne4 Ser5"an)A-5an"an 5order so6e4here "n 'entra-)northern 3oso,o sho!-d pro5a5-y 5e (o--o4ed 5y ,o-!ntary eG'han+es o( pop!-at"on0 The t"6"n+ and 'ond"t"ons (or an e,ent!a- part"t"on 'an re6a"n ,a+!e, 5!t there 4"-- 5e no rea- state "n 3oso,o !nt"- "t happens0 Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na 6"+ht 5e !sed as a pre8!e- to the part"t"on o( 3oso,o, s"n'e Bosn"a "s a-ready e((e't",e-y part"t"oned0 In the end Rep!5-"1a Srps1a sho!-d @o"n Ser5"a, as 'o6pensat"on (or the prospe't",e -oss o( the +reater part o( 3oso,o0 The other ha-( o( the Bosn"an ent"ty 'o!-d e"ther 5e part"t"oned 5et4een Croat"a and a M!s-"6 r!6p state, or a5sor5ed 5y Croat"a "n "ts ent"rety0 These steps 4o!-d p!t a-- Ba-1an terr"tory !nder rea- states, there5y stren+then"n+ the state syste6, 4h"'h sho!-d 5e E!rope#s and A6er"'a#s pr"6ary strate+"' o5@e't",e "n the (a'e o( o!rth Generat"on 55

4ar0 The sett-e6ent sho!-d 5e a''epta5-e to a-- the -o'a- po4ers, at -east (or the (oreseea5-e (!t!reI no Ba-1an sett-e6ent "s e,er per6anent0 Ser5"a 4o!-d re+a"n part o( 3oso,o and 5e 'o6pensated (or the -oss o( the rest 5y +a"n"n+ Rep!5-"1a Serps1aI A-5an"a and Croat"a 4o!-d 5oth +a"n terr"toryI and "n t"6e the Bosn"an Mos-e6 pop!-at"on 4o!-d 'o6e to per'e",e the 5ene("ts o( ha,"n+ a real state o( the"r o4n, ho4e,er s6a--0 In 'ontrast, sho!-d the Un"ted States yet a+a"n "nter,ene "n the Ba-1ans, 5y atte6pt"n+ to (or'e Be-+rade to (or6a--y 'ede 3oso,o and 5y a5o-"sh"n+ Rep!5-"1a Serps1a, the a-6ost 'erta"n res!-t 4"-- 5e a ,"'tory (or the (or'es o( o!rth Generat"on 4ar0 3oso,o and Bosn"a 4"-- re6a"n 8!as"states 4here o!rth Generat"on ent"t"es r!n ra6pant0 Beyond the Ba-1ans, the U0S0 4o!-d send a '-ear 6essa+e that "t does not respe't the state syste6, that "t 6ere-y !ses the syste6 4hen "t 4"shes to, and ,"o-ate "ts r!-es 4"th "6p!n"ty s0 That 4o!-d 5e a (!rther 5-o4 to the -e+"t"6a'y o( the state syste6, "n d"re't 'ontrad"'t"on o( the 6ost ,"ta- "nterest o( a-- states0 The Ba-1ans no4 (a'e .ash"n+ton 4"th perhaps the 6ost "6portant 8!est"on o( the $2st 'ent!ryE does "t !nderstand ho4 the r"se o( o!rth Generat"on 4ar a-ters 5as"' strate+"' 'a-'!-at"ons or does "t notL The ans4er to that 8!est"on 4"-- +o (ar "n deter6"n"n+ the (ate o( the Un"ted States, and the state syste6 "tse-(0

56

+he Sre)renica 'enocide! +ote$ of the New (orld ,rder =ohn La!+h-and
The e,ents at Sre5ren"'a "n =!-y 2&&< no4 en@oy a spe'"a- stat!s "n "nternat"ona- 'r"6"na- -a40 Un"8!e-y a6on+ the 6any '-ashes 4h"'h o''!rred d!r"n+ the ten)year ,"o-ent 5rea1)!p o( Y!+os-a,"a, those e,ents ha,e 5een (or6a--y 'hara'ter"sed as genocide 5y 5oth the Internat"ona- Cr"6"na- Tr"5!na- (or the (or6er Y!+os-a,"a and the Internat"ona- Co!rt o( =!st"'e0 It "s nota5-e that no 'o!rt, not e,en the ICTY Prose'!tor, has e,er 'hara'ter"sed the e,ents "n 3oso,o "n 2&&& as +eno'"de, e,en tho!+h "t 4as pre'"se-y on the 5as"s that +eno'"de 4as o''!rr"n+ there that NATO atta'1ed Y!+os-a,"a that spr"n+02 The h"story o( th"s a''!sat"on o( +eno'"de "s "6portant0 It 4as ("rst -e,e--ed (or6a--y on $% Mar'h 2&&>, 4hen the Rep!5-"' o( Bosn"a and Her*e+o,"na "n"t"ated pro'eed"n+s at the IC= a+a"nst the ederaRep!5-"' o( Y!+os-a,"a (or the app-"'at"on o( the Con,ent"on on the Pre,ent"on and P!n"sh6ent o( the Cr"6e o( Geno'"de o( 2&7;0 The 'ase 4as e,ent!a--y r!-ed on "n $%%: 5!t the t"6"n+ o( the "n"t"a- ("-"n+ "s 1eyE "t 'a6e 4"th"n 4ee1s o( the ,ote o( UN Se'!r"ty Co!n'"Reso-!t"on ;%; A$$ e5r!ary 2&&>B 4h"'h had 'a--ed (or the 'reat"on o( an "nternat"ona- 'r"6"na- tr"5!na- to prose'!te 4ar 'r"6es "n the (or6er
Pr"6e M"n"ster Tony B-a"r sa"d, CIt "s no eGa++erat"on to say that 4hat "s happen"n+ "n 3oso,o "s ra'"a- +eno'"de0D >y pledge to the refugees, BBC Ne4s On-"ne, 27 May 2&&&0
2

57

Y!+os-a,"a0 The ICTY at The Ha+!e 4as "ndeed 8!"'1-y 5ro!+ht "nto 5e"n+ 4"th a (!rther Se'!r"ty Co!n'"- reso-!t"on, ;$:, passed on $< May 2&&>0 Th"s !se o( the 'r"6"na- -a4 to "nter,ene "n the 4ars o( Y!+os-a, s!''ess"on 4as !npre'edented0 Ne,er 5e(ore had an "nternat"ona- 'r"6"na- tr"5!na- 5een 'reated 4"th s!'h "ntr!s",e po4ers, or as a pea'e)1eep"n+ 6eas!re0 A6er"'an @!d+es at N!re65er+ "n 2&7:, a't"n+ !nder the ter6s o( the Charter o( the or"+"na- Internat"onaM"-"tary Tr"5!na- at N!re65er+, had spe'"("'a--y r!-ed o!t s!'h @!d"'"a"nter,ent"on"s60 The"r o4n po4er, they sa"d, (-o4ed on-y (ro6 the (a't that Ger6any had no +o,ern6ent o( her o4n 5e'a!se she had s!rrendered !n'ond"t"ona--y "n May 2&7<E ."th"n the terr"tor"a- 5o!ndar"es o( a state ha,"n+ a re'o+n"sed, (!n't"on"n+ +o,ern6ent present-y "n the eGer'"se o( so,ere"+n po4er thro!+ho!t the terr"tory, a ,"o-ator o( the r!-es o( "nternat"ona- -a4 'o!-d 5e p!n"shed on-y 5y the a!thor"ty o( the o(("'"a-s o( that stateQ In Ger6any an "nternat"ona- 5ody has ass!6ed and eGer'"sed the po4er to esta5-"sh @!d"'"a- 6a'h"nery (or the p!n"sh6ent o( those 4ho ha,e ,"o-ated the r!-es o( the 'o66on "nternat"ona- -a4, a po4er 4h"'h no "nternat"onaa!thor"ty 4"tho!t 'onsent 'o!-d ass!6e or eGer'"se 4"th"n a state ha,"n+ a nat"ona- +o,ern6ent present-y "n the eGer'"se o( "ts so,ere"+n po4ers02 Th"s -a'1 o( e"ther pre'edent or 'onsent 5y the states 'on'erned d"d not 5other the ad,o'ates o( a ne4 4or-d order0 The ICTY 4as "tse-( on-y one part o( an "ntense and +enera- UN "nter,ent"on"s6 "n the Y!+os-a, 4ars0 In the 2; 6onths (o--o4"n+ the o!t5rea1 o( ("+ht"n+ "n Bosn"a on Apr"- $, 2&&$, no (e4er than 7: Se'!r"ty Co!n'"Reso-!t"ons 4ere adoptedI 7$ state6ents 4ere "ss!ed 5y the Pres"dent o( the Co!n'"-0 No "ss!e "n the UNSC has e,er +enerated so 6any reso-!t"ons and state6ents o,er a 'o6para5-e per"od0

'rials of ?ar Criminals before the !uremberg >ilitary 'ribunals under Control Council 0a$ !o7 )13 Vo-!6e III, CThe =!st"'e CaseD A2&7:B, .ash"n+ton /C, 2&<2, pp0 &:%)&:20

58

The "nter,ent"on"s6 4as 5oth @!d"'"a- and 6"-"tary0 The UN (or'e, UNPRO OR, ha,"n+ 5een despat'hed "n 2&&$, the spr"n+ o( 2&&> a-so sa4 the adopt"on o( Se'!r"ty Co!n'"- Reso-!t"on ;2& Aon 2? Apr"- 2&&>B 4h"'h pro'-a"6ed the 'reat"on o( a UN prote'ted Csa(e areaD aro!nd the to4n o( Sre5ren"'a0 At that t"6e the 6"-"tary 5a-an'e o( po4er had sh"(ted "n (a,o!r o( the Bosn"an Ser5s and the area 'ontro--ed 5y M!s-"6s aro!nd Sre5ren"'a had 5een +reat-y red!'ed0 Sre5ren"'a -"n1ed the northern and so!thern parts o( Ser5 'ontro--ed terr"tory and th!s had a +reat strate+"' "6portan'e0 The 'reat"on o( a Csa(e areaD there H 4h"'h, as e,en the ICTY ad6"ts, the M!s-"6s then !sed as a 5ase (or -a!n'h"n+ three years o( ra"ds on the s!rro!nd"n+ Ser5 ,"--a+es H 4as 1ey to pre,ent"n+ the Ser5s (ro6 rea-"s"n+ the"r +oa- o( se'ed"n+ (ro6 Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na 4"th a ,"a5-e state0 The sa6e stat!s o( Csa(e areaD 4as -ater a''orded to a n!65er o( other M!s-"6)he-d to4ns "n Bosn"a 5y Se'!r"ty Co!n'"Reso-!t"on ;$7, passed on ? May 2&&>0 In other 4ords, the a''!sat"on o( +eno'"de (or6a--y -od+ed 4"th the IC= "n Mar'h 2&&> 4as 6ade at a 'r"t"'a- t"6e0 The Bosn"an M!s-"6s had s!((ered hea,y 6"-"tary de(eats and 4ere on the po"nt o( -os"n+ the 4ar0 The"r "nternat"ona- strate+y 4as to see1 (ore"+n 6ora- and 6"-"tary s!pport on the 5as"s that Y!+os-a,"a 4as pra't"s"n+ +eno'"de a+a"nst the60$
2

.hen the Internat"ona- Co!rt o( =!st"'e ("na--y r!-ed on the Bosn"an s!"t "n $%%:, "t thre4 o!t e,ery s"n+-e a''!sat"on o( +eno'"de eG'ept 4here Sre5ren"'a 4as 'on'erned0 Th"s 4as part-y "ts o4n
2

ICTY, Prose'!tor ,0 Rad"s-a, 3rst"', Tr"a- Cha65er =!d+e6ent, $ A!+!st $%%2, par0 $70
2

The '-a"6 o( +eno'"de 4as s!pported 5y ,ar"o!s a'ade6"'s "n the .est0 See Nor6an C"+ar, %enocide in 9osnia3 'he ,olicy of @Ethnic CleansingA , ATeGas AZM Un",ers"ty Press, 2&&<B, re,"e4ed 5y Noe- Ma-'o-6 "n 'he Sunday 'elegraph on 22 =!ne 2&&<E CI( yo! 4ant @!st one 4or1 4h"'h eGp-a"ns the rea- nat!re o( th"s 4ar, yo! sho!-d read th"s one0D Yet Sre5ren"'a "s no4here 6ent"oned "n that 5oo1 5e'a!se the e,ents o( =!-y 2&&< st"-- -ay "n the (!t!reE the a''!sat"on o( +eno'"de, on'e a+a"n, -on+ pre)dated the60

59

read"n+ o( e,ents and part-y that o( the ICTY, 4hose r!-"n+s "t (e-t "t 'o!-d not d"sre+ard0 In the "nter,en"n+ 27 years, the ICTY had entered 'on,"'t"ons (or +eno'"de "n Sre5ren"'a a+a"nst Rad"s-a, 3rst"' "n $%%2 and V"do@e B-a+o@e,"' "n $%%<0 The or"+"na- s!"t !sed the 6ost "n(-a66atory -an+!a+e to ar+!e that +eno'"de 4as 5e"n+ 'o66"tted02 Th"s 6a1es "t a-- the 6ore perp-eG"n+ that the or"+"na- '-a"6s o( a ,ast +eno'"de a--e+ed-y perpetrated a+a"nst an ent"re peop-e ha,e 5een 4h"tt-ed do4n so (ar that on-y Sre5ren"'a re6a"ns0 In the ord"nary 6ean"n+ o( the 4ord, +eno'"de "s a 6ass",e state)sponsored pro+ra66e0 The Na*"s# perse'!t"on o( the =e4s pro,"des the parad"+6E 'erta"n-y, "t 4as 4"th the Na*" +eno'"de "n 6"nd that the (ather o( the Geno'"de Con,ent"on, Raphae- Le61"n, proposed the or"+"na- dra(t and the a!thors dre4 !p the ("na- ,ers"on0 In 'ontrast to the Na* pro+ra6 o( eGter6"nat"on 4h"'h "n,o-,ed 6ass",e -o+"st"'a- p-ann"n+, h!+e a6o!nts o( 6anpo4er and 6ater"a-s, 6ore than a de'ade o( "deo-o+"'a- ra'"s6, and "6p-e6entat"on o,er a per"od o( se,era- years, the 6ass eGe'!t"ons 4h"'h o''!rred a(ter the (a-- o( Sre5ren"'a too1 p-a'e "n -"tt-e o,er a 4ee1 "n =!-y 2&&<, and "n a sporad"' and "6pro6pt! (ash"on0 .hereas H"t-er#s ant")Se6"t"s6 had 5een p!5-"'-y eGpressed "n >ein -ampf, p!5-"shed "n 2&$<, and 4hereas he had threatened Cthe destr!'t"on o( the =e4"sh ra'e "n E!ropeD "n a spee'h to the Re"'hsta+ on >% =an!ary 2&>&, "0e0 near-y three years 5e(ore he ("na--y +a,e the order phys"'a--y to 6!rder the
1

The open"n+ para+raph o( the App-"'at"on A$% Mar'h 2&&>B readsE CNot s"n'e the Q re,e-at"ons o( the horrors o( Na*" Ger6anyWs F "na- So-!t"on# has E!rope 4"tnessed the !tter destr!'t"on o( a Peop-e, (or no other reason than they 5e-on+ to a part"'!-ar nat"ona- ethn"'a-, ra'"a-, and re-"+"o!s +ro!p as s!'h0 The a5o6"na5-e 'r"6es ta1"n+ p-a'e "n the Rep!5-"' o( Bosn"a) Her*e+o,"na at th"s t"6e 'an 5e 'a--ed 5y on-y one na6eE +eno'"de0 Geno'"de "s the 6ost e,"- 'r"6e a State or h!6an 5e"n+ 'an "n(-"'t !pon another State or h!6an 5e"n+0 The sheer enor6"ty o( th"s 'r"6e re8!"res that the nat"ons o( the 4or-d stand to+ether as one, and 4"th a s"n+-e ,o"'e stop the destr!'t"on o( the Bosn"an Peop-e0D

60

=e4s2, the ICTY @!d+es say that the +eno'"da- p-an at Sre5ren"'a d"d not 'o6e "nto 5e"n+ !nt"- on or aro!nd 2> =!-y 2&&<, "0e0 spontaneo!s-y "n the heat o( 5att-e0$ And 4hereas the Na*"s tar+eted a-- =e4s, the +eno'"da- p-an s!pposed-y 'on'e",ed 5y the Bosn"an Ser5s d"d not tar+et the Bosn"an M!s-"6s as a 4ho-e 5!t on-y, a''ord"n+ to the ICTY, Cthe Bosn"an M!s-"6 pop!-at"on o( Sre5ren"'aD0> There ha,e 5een 'o6p-a"nts a5o!t th"s r!-"n+, -ar+e-y on the 5as"s that the ("nd"n+s are eGa++erated and !ns!5stant"ated, that the ("+!re o( :);,%%% "s (ar too h"+h, that 6ost o( the ,"'t"6s o( eGe'!t"ons 4ere 'o65atants0 These ar+!6ents (a"- to +rasp that 4e are dea-"n+ not so 6!'h 4"th an ant")Ser5 5"as "n the pra't"'e o( "nternat"ona- 'r"6"na@!st"'e, 5!t rather 4"th a pro+ra6 o( "nternat"ona- "nter,ent"on"s6, 5ased on dan+ero!s-y 4ea1 -e+a- reason"n+ and d"sre+ard (or d!e pro'ess, o( 4h"'h the Ser5s happen to 5e the +!"nea)p"+s0 Sre5ren"'a has 5een ra"sed to the -e+a- stat!s "t no4 en@oys part-y 5e'a!se the to4n#s (a-- "n 2&&< to Bosn"an Ser5 (or'es represented a de(eat not on-y (or the Bosn"an M!s-"6s 5!t a-so (or the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty as a 4ho-e H not on-y "ts po-"'y o( 'reat"n+ sa(e areas 5!t a-so, and 6ore +enera--y, o( the "nter,ent"on"s6 pra't"sed 5y ,ar"o!s parts o( the C"nternat"ona- 'o66!n"tyD e,er s"n'e the EU "nterposed "tse-( 5et4een the part"es to the 'on(-"'t "n =!-y 2&&20 Sre5ren"'a 4as "6portant H at -east (or the s!pporters o( "nter,ent"on"s6 ) 5e'a!se the UN 4as there, not @!st 5e'a!se "t 4as a M!s-"6 en'-a,e0 The Un"ted Nat"ons as an "nst"t!t"on, "t 6!st 5e re6e65ered, had e65ar1ed "n the 2&&%s on an a++ress",e po-"'y o( 6"-"tary, po-"t"'a- and @!d"'"a- "nter,ent"on"s6 "n 5oth Ira8 and Y!+os-a,"aI "t 'ont"n!ed to app-y the h"+h-y "ntr!s",e san't"ons re+"6e
Edo!ard HUSSON, @!ous pou.ons .i.re sans les :uifsA3 !o.embre )4+)3 Buand et comment ils dCcidDrent de la solution finale APar"sE Perr"n, $%%<B0
$ > 2

ICTY Tr"a- Cha65er, Prose'!tor ,0 Rad"s-a, 3rst"', $ A!+!st $%%2, par0 <:>0

ICTY Appea-s Cha65er, Prose'!tor ,0 Rad"s-a, 3rst"', =!d+e6ent, 2& Apr"$%%7, par 2&, and Tr"a- Cha65er =!d+e6ent, $ A!!st $%%2, pars <?% and <?20

61

a+a"nst Ira8 thro!+ho!t the de'ade and "nto the $2 st 'ent!ry, and o( 'o!rse 4as happy to 5e'o6e the ad6"n"strator o( 3oso,o a(ter 2&&&0 Its o4n 'red"5"-"ty, and that o( the states 4h"'h d"'tated "ts po-"'"es, 4as destroyed 4hen the en'-a,e (e--0 The a't","sts o( @!d"'"a- and 6"-"tary s!pranat"ona-"s6 are there(ore deter6"ned to 6a1e the +eno'"de 'har+e st"'1 so6e4here0 Perhaps they 4ant re,en+e (or the 6"-"tary de(eat o( 2&&<0 Geno'"de o((ers t4o 1ey -e+a- ad,anta+es "n p!rs!"t o( the +oa- o( 'reat"n+ a ne4 "nternat"ona- syste6 no -on+er 5ased on state so,ere"+nty0 These ad,anta+es are "n add"t"on to the rhetor"'a- ad,anta+e 4h"'h der",es (ro6 p!tt"n+ the Bosn"an Ser5s "nto the sa6e 'ate+ory as the Na*"s0 The ("rst -e+a- !se(!-ness o( the +eno'"de 'har+e "s that, a''ord"n+ to the 8!est"ona5-e 4ay "n 4h"'h "nternat"ona- 'r"6"na- -a4 "s '!rrent-y (or6!-ated, the thresho-d o( proo( re8!"red to se'!re a 'on,"'t"on (or +eno'"de "s -o4er than "t "s (or 'r"6es a+a"nst h!6an"ty0 To se'!re a 'on,"'t"on (or 'r"6es a+a"nst h!6an"ty the Prose'!t"on 6!st pro,e that the a'ts 4ere C4"despread or syste6at"'D0 2 No s!'h 'ond"t"on app-"es (or +eno'"de0 Moreo,er, 'r"6es a+a"nst h!6an"ty 'an 5e 'o66"tted on-y a+a"nst '","-"ans, 4hereas +eno'"de 'an "n'-!de the 1"--"n+ o( 6"-"tary personne- as 4e--0$ In other 4ords, spontaneo!s or d"sparate a'ts "n,o-,"n+ the 1"--"n+ o( 6"-"tary personne- 'an 5e '-ass"("ed as C+eno'"deDI th"s "s eGa't-y 4hat has happened "n the 'ase o( Sre5ren"'a0
2

The phrase C4"despread or syste6at"'D appears "n Art"'-e : o( the Ro6e Stat!te o( the Internat"ona- Cr"6"na- Co!rt0 The re-e,ant Art"'-e < o( the ICTY Stat!te does not 'onta"n the phrase 5!t the Tr"a- Cha65er deter6"ned "n "ts ,ery ("rst tr"a- that the a'ts C6!st 5e !nderta1en on 4"despread or syste6at"' 5as"s and "n (!rtheran'e o( a po-"'yD0 See Tr"a- Cha65er @!d+e6ent "n Prose'!tor ,0 /!s1o Tad"', : May 2&&:, par0 ?$?0 Art"'-e < o( the ICTY Stat!te spe'"("es that 'r"6es a+a"nst h!6an"ty are d"re'ted Ca+a"nst any '","-"an pop!-at"onD, a phrase repeated "n the re-e,ant Art"'-e : o( the Ro6e Stat!te o( the ICC0 See a-so =ohn K!"+-ey, 'he %enocide Con.ention3 #n International 0a$ #nalysis3 ALondonE Ash+ate, $%%?B, p02$0
$

62

The se'ond -e+a- ad,anta+e o( +eno'"de ) (ro6 the po"nt o( ,"e4 o( the pro@e't o( 'reat"n+ a syste6 o( s!pranat"ona- 'oer'",e 'r"6"na- -a4 4h"'h 'an 'onstra"n states and 'on,"'t the"r -eaders ) "s that +eno'"de, !n-"1e 'r"6es a+a"nst h!6an"ty, "s the s!5@e't o( a 5"nd"n+ "nternat"ona- treaty, the 2&7; Geno'"de Con,ent"on0 To 5e s!re, the nor6a- r!-es o( "nternat"ona- 5eha,"o!r ha,e 5een se,ere-y d"storted "n re'ent years 5y the ant"'s o( the Se'!r"ty Co!n'"- and the Un"ted Nat"ons "n +enera- "n 'reat"n+ "nternat"ona- 'r"6"na- tr"5!na-s 4h"'h, "n the 'ase o( the ICTY, the ICTR and the ICC, ha,e a-- "nd"'ted heads o( state or +o,ern6ent 4ho 4o!-d nor6a--y en@oy so,ere"+n "66!n"ty0 Th"s "s espe'"a--y the 'ase 4"th Pres"dent O6ar A-)Bash"r o( S!dan, a 'o!ntry 4h"'h has not s"+ned the Ro6e Stat!te 5!t 4ho 4as nonethe-ess "nd"'ted 5y the ICC "n Mar'h $%%&0 Internat"ona- @!d"'"aa't","sts 'an 6ore or -ess do 4hat they -"1e these days0 Ho4e,er, they are on stron+er +ro!nd 4hen there "s a't!a--y a treaty "n eG"sten'e 4h"'h (or5"ds +eno'"de and re8!"res states to pre,ent and p!n"sh "t0 The "6portan'e o( the eG"sten'e o( a treaty, as opposed to the eG"sten'e o( a nor6 "n 6ere C'!sto6ary "nternat"ona- -a4D H "0e0 4hate,er @!d+es or e,en a'ade6"'s say they th"n1 the -a4 "s H 4as "--!strated 4"th the -and6ar1 r!-"n+ "n the Br"t"sh Ho!se o( Lords a+a"nst Genera- P"no'het, "ss!ed on $7 Mar'h 2&&& Athe day the 5o65s started ra"n"n+ do4n on Y!+os-a,"aB0 A't","sts (or !n",ersa@!r"sd"'t"on ratione materiae 4ere ,ery eG'"ted 5y th"s r!-"n+ 5e'a!se "t see6ed to 'on("r6 that e,en heads o( state 'o!-d 5e p!t on tr"a- 4hen 'erta"n 1"nds o( 'r"6es 4ere a--e+ed a+a"nst the60 Ho4e,er, the"r ,"'tory 4as -ess de'"s",e than they so6et"6es pretend0 It "s tr!e that the Ho!se o( Lords o,err!-ed the pr"n'"p-e o( so,ere"+n "66!n"ty, 5!t "t d"d so on-y on the 5as"s that Ch"-e "tse-( H 4h"'h '-a"6ed the "66!n"ty (or P"no'het H had "n (a't 'onsented, "n 2&;; 4hen P"no'het 4as h"6se-( head o( state, to the ter6s o( the 2&;< UN Con,ent"on 5y s"+n"n+ and rat"(y"n+ "t0 The no5-e Lords ded!'ed (ro6 th"s that Ch"-e had ear-"er re,o1ed "ts o4n "66!n"t"es "n th"s area and that "ts

63

re,o'at"on re6a"ned "n (or'e 5e'a!se "t had ne,er s!5se8!ent-y deno!n'ed the Con,ent"on0 The stat!s o( +eno'"de as a 'r"6e proh"5"ted 5y treaty -a4, rather than '!sto6ary "nternat"ona- -a4, 4as a-so ra"sed "n the r!-"n+ +",en 5y the IC= "n the Bosn"a ,0 Ser5"a 'ase "n e5r!ary $%%:0 Art"'-e & o( the Geno'"de Con,ent"on +",es the IC= the po4er to r!-e on 4hether "t "s 5e"n+ respe'ted or not0 Th"s part o( the Geno'"de Con,ent"on 4as eGtens",e-y d"s'!ssed "n the r!-"n+, spe'"("'a--y the 8!est"on 4hether the respons"5"-"ty o( states 'o!-d 5e "n'!rred !nder "ts ter6s0 The Co!rt 'on'-!ded that the respons"5"-"ty o( states 'o!-d 5e so "n'!rred, a ("nd"n+ 4h"'h represents a depart!re (ro6 the '-ass"'a- r!-es o( "nternat"ona- -a4 a''ord"n+ to 4h"'h states are the !pho-ders o( the 'r"6"na- -a4 and, as s!'h, not the s!5@e'ts o( "t02 Many states dero+ated (ro6 th"s pro,"s"on, Art"'-e &, 4hen they rat"("ed the Geno'"de Con,ent"on0 They entered reser,at"ons say"n+ they d"d not a''ept the @!r"sd"'t"on o( the IC=0 Ho4e,er, Bosn"a has entered no s!'h reser,at"on and a-tho!+h Y!+os-a,"a d"d, "t a+reed to -"t"+ate the 'ase 5e(ore the IC= "n 2&&>0 In other 4ords, the pr"n'"p-e "s no4 esta5-"shed that +eno'"de 'an 5e -"t"+ated at "nternat"ona- -e,e- "n Bosn"a, and that the respons"5"-"ty o( states 'an 5e en+a+ed0 There "s a ("na- po"nt, 4ea1er than the pre,"o!s t4o0 So6e "nternat"ona- -a4yers ar+!e that there "s no r"+ht o( se'ess"on (or states 4h"'h ha,e 'o66"tted 6ass",e ,"o-at"ons o( h!6an r"+hts0 They a-so '-a"6 that there does eG"st a r"+ht o( se'ess"on 4hen se-()deter6"nat"on "s ,"o-ent-y s!ppressed0 S!'h ar+!6ents 6ay o5,"o!s-y 5e "n,o1ed a+a"nst Rep!5-"1a Srps1a 4h"'h 'o!-d 5e 5randed un Etat gCnocidaire "( "t tr"ed to se'ede, or to res"st (resh atte6pts to d"sso-,e "ts a!tono6y0 The pos"t",e -a4 on th"s "s th"n, as "t "s "ndeed on se'ess"on "n +enera-E the on-y rea- teGt 4h"'h 'an 5e add!'ed "s Reso-!t"on $?$< adopted at the $<th Genera- Asse65-y o( the Un"ted Nat"ons on $7
2

See para+raphs 2<< H 2;$ o( the IC= r!-"n+, $: e5r!ary $%%:0

64

O'to5er 2&:%02 The re(eren'e "s ,a+!e and "nd"re'tI 'onse8!ent-y so6e a!thors deny that "t eG"sts as a pr"n'"p-e o( '!sto6ary "nternat"ona- -a40 B!t "t "s a (eat!re o( re'ent "nternat"ona- -e+a- pra't"'e that the prono!n'e6ents o( -a4 -e't!rers are "n,o1ed as so!r'es o( -a4 "tse-(0 Moreo,er, as the a5!ses o( d!e pro'ess o(ten 'o66"tted 5y the ICTY and other tr"5!na-s sho4$, "nternat"ona- 'r"6"na- -a4 "s '!rrent-y "n a dan+ero!s-y (-!"d state0 The ("rst 'on,"'t"on !nder the Geno'"de Con,ent"on 4as that o( =ean 3a65anda, the (or6er Pr"6e M"n"ster o( R4anda, "n 2&&;E th"s "s a-- ,ery re'ent -a4, as "s sho4n 5y the 8!otat"on 5y the ICTY o( ,ery ne4 pre'edents "n "ts r!-"n+s on Sre5ren"'a0> It 'an 5e eas"-y pressed th"s 4ay or that a''ord"n+ to the po-"t"'a- "6perat",es o( the day, and a''ord"n+ to the "nst"t!t"ona- se-() "nterest o( "nternat"ona- @!d+es, 4ho ta1e de'"s"ons (ree o( any 6ean"n+(!- o,ers"+ht0 The 'on,"'t"ons (or F+eno'"de# at Sre5ren"'a 6ay 5e !sed as a st"'1 4"th 4h"'h to 5eat Rep!5-"1a Srps1a0 The ICTY has de'-ared an eGp-"'"t -"n1 5et4een the =!-y 2&&< e,ents "n Sre5ren"'a and the eG"sten'e o( RS "tse-(0 In $%%7, the Appea-s Cha65er !phe-d the Tr"aCha65er#s $%%2 ("nd"n+ that, C4"tho!t Sre5ren"'a, the ethn"'a--y Ser5 state o( Rep!5-"'a Srps1a they Athe Bosn"an Ser5sB so!+ht to 'reate 4o!-d re6a"n d","ded "nto t4o d"s'onne'ted parts, and "ts a''ess to Ser5"a proper 4o!-d 5e d"sr!ptedDE The 'apt!re and ethn"' p!r"("'at"on o( Sre5ren"'a 4o!-d there(ore se,ere-y !nder6"ne the 6"-"tary e((orts o( the
2

C/e'-arat"on on Pr"n'"p-es o( Internat"ona- La4 Con'ern"n+ r"end-y Re-at"ons and Cooperat"on A6on+ States "n A''ordan'e 4"th the Charter o( the Un"ted Nat"ons,D esp0 pro,"s"ons "n the se't"on ent"t-ed CThe Pr"n'"p-e o( E8!a- R"+hts and Se-()/eter6"nat"on o( Peop-esD0
$

See 6y 5oo1s 'ra.esty: the 'rial of Slobodan >ilose.ic and the Corruption of International /ustice ALondonE P-!to Press, $%%:B and # Fistory of ,olitical 'rials from Charles I to Saddam Fussein AOG(ordE Peter Lan+, $%%;B0
>

ICTY Tr"a- Cha65er @!d+e6ent, Prose'!tor ,I Rad"s-a, 3rst"', $ A!+!st $%%2, par <:20

65

Bosn"an M!s-"6 state to ens!re "ts ,"a5"-"ty, a 'onse8!en'e the M!s-"6 -eadersh"p (!--y rea-"*ed and stro,e to pre,ent0 Controo,er the Sre5ren"'a re+"on 4as 'onse8!ent-y essent"a- to the +oa- o( so6e Bosn"an Ser5 -eaders o( (or6"n+ a ,"a5-e po-"t"'aent"ty "n Bosn"aQ2 Th"s para+raph "s spe'"("'a--y a @!st"("'at"on (or the AppeaCha65er#s ("nd"n+ that +eno'"de did o''!rE the @!d+es are see1"n+ to @!st"(y the"r r"d"'!-o!s-y 5aro8!e ("nd"n+ that a 6assa're o( a t"ny per'enta+e o( a Cprote'ted +ro!pD Athe Bosn"an M!s-"6sB 'an 5e proo( o( +eno'"da- "ntent0 A4are that the"r r!-"n+s on +eno'"de appear to 'heapen the 'on'ept so (ar that "t 5e'o6es n!+atory, they say that the "6portan'e o( the M!s-"6 'o66!n"ty o( Sre5ren"'a C"s not 'apt!red so-e-y 5y "ts s"*eD 5!t "nstead 5y th"s strate+"' "6portan'e and 5y the (a't that the to4n 4as a UN prote'ted sa(e ha,en (or M!s-"6s0 It "s (or th"s reason, ar+!e the @!d+es, that the destr!'t"on o( the CBosn"an M!s-"6 pop!-at"on o( Sre5ren"'aD 4as Ce65-e6at"'D $ o( the Bosn"an M!s-"6s as a 4ho-e and there(ore e,"den'e o( (!-- +eno'"da- "ntent0 Sre5ren"'a, then, "s an eG"stent"a- "ss!e, not as 6!'h (or Rep!5-"1a Srps1a as (or those a't","sts 4ho see1 to 'onso-"date on'e and (or a-- that o!t'o6e 4h"'h the (or6er ICTY Prose'!tor, Lo!"se Ar5o!r, sa"d she had a'h"e,ed "n 2&&&E C.e ha,e passed (ro6 an era o( 'ooperat"on 5et4een states to an era "n 4h"'h states 'an 5e 'onstra"ned0D>

ICTY Appea-s Cha65er, Prose'!tor ,0 R0 3rst"', =!d+e6ent, 2& Apr"- $%%7, par02<0
$ >

par0 2?0 0e >onde, ? A!+!st 2&&&0

66

-sla$. the (est. and ,rthodo/y Gre+ory M0 /a,"s2

he Ba-1ans ha,e a-4ays presented a 'ha--en+e to the st!dent o( +eopo-"t"'s, and the 'on(-"'ts o( o!r o4n t"6e are no eG'ept"on0 The ana-yst +ropes (ro6 one handho-d to another, do++ed 5y 6"s"n(or6at"on and "deo-o+"'a- sp"ns0 In 'o6"n+ to +r"ps 4"th the (or'es 5eh"nd the 5rea1!p o( Y!+os-a,"a and the p-"+ht o( "ts s!''essor states, one 'o6es to appre'"ate the "nade8!a'y o( a trad"t"ona- rea-"st approa'h0 Nat"ona- se-()"nterest on the part o( the Un"ted States and other +reat po4ers a-one does not eGp-a"n the"r a't"ons H -east o( a-- the pers"stent U0S0)-ed 'a6pa"+n a+a"nst the Ser5s thro!+ho!t the re+"on, no4 "nto "ts (o!rth A6er"'an ad6"n"strat"on0 The po-"'y ana-yst 6!st rea'h (or 6ore po4er(!- too-s0 The 5rea1!p o( Y!+os-a,"a and the de facto se'ess"on o( 3oso,o (ro6 Ser5"a 6ar1 s"+n"("'ant ep"sodes "n the post)Co-d .ar str!++-e 5et4een three 6a@or 4or-d)h"stor"'a- (or'esE U0S0)-ed +-o5a-"*at"on, @"had, and the o-d nat"on)state syste60 These three (or'es are the '!rrent eGpress"ons o( the three '","-"*at"ons that ha,e 'o6peted (or pre)e6"nen'e "n the Ba-1an pen"ns!-a (or a tho!sand yearsE the .est, Is-a6, and the OrthodoG East0
2

/r0 Gre+ory M0 /a,"s, an o''as"ona- 'ontr"5!tor to Fuman E.ents3 ?orld!et 8aily and Chronicles, "s a!thor o( Religion of ,eaceG A$%%?B and prod!'er and d"re'tor o( the do'!6entary ("-6 Islam: ?hat the ?est !eeds to -no$7

67

The OrthodoG nat"ons o( Eastern E!rope, 4h"'h st"-- reta"n 'hara'ter"st"'s o( C4ho-eD so'"et"es 5ased "n 'o66on -an+!a+e, ethn"'"ty, terr"tory, and re-"+"on, re6a"n one o( the (e4 +en!"ne-y 'onser,at",e (or'es on the 4or-d sta+e0 In s"6p-"("ed 5!t 6ean"n+(!ter6s, the OrthodoG East has on'e a+a"n (o!nd "tse-( s8!ee*ed "n a ,"'e 5et4een t4o "6per"a-"st"', ,"o-ent "deo-o+"es, happy to 4re'1 Ba-1an '","-"*at"on (or the"r o4n 6"s+!"ded se-()"nterests0 /esp"te "ts Chr"st"an e-e6ents, the .est has on'e a+a"n sho4n "tse-( 4"--"n+ to !nder6"ne the Chr"st"an East e,en 4h"-e stren+then"n+ Is-a6, the an'"ent ene6y o( 5oth0 To that end, d!r"n+ the Y!+os-a, '","- 4ars o( the 2&&%s, the US) -ed .est, a-so 1no4n as the C"nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty,D aB en'o!ra+ed the ,"o-ent 5rea1!p o( Y!+os-a,"aI 5B s!pported a hard)'ore Is-a6"' s!pre6a'"st, A-"@a I*et5e+o,"N, pres"dent o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na, "n h"s e((orts to 5!"-d the ("rst Is-a6"' state "n E!rope "n 6odern t"6esI and 'B s!pported, 5oth d"p-o6at"'a--y and 6"-"tar"-y, M!s-"6 terror"sts "n Bosn"a and 3oso,o "n the"r e((orts to 1"-- and ethn"'a--y '-eanse Ser5 '","-"ans0 US)-ed .estern po-"'y 'ont"n!ed "n a s"6"-ar ,e"n d!r"n+ the B!sh ad6"n"strat"on 4"th the re'o+n"t"on o( 3oso,o, and, sad-y, sho4s (e4 s"+ns o( 'han+"n+ !nder the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on0 To so6e eGtent, the .estern)5a'1ed assa!-t on Y!+os-a,"a o( the 2&&%s 6ay 5e re+arded as eGp-o"tat"on o( a tar+et o( opport!n"ty0 Co66!n"s6 4as (a--"n+ apart a-- o,er E!rope0 One o( the Y!+os-a, rep!5-"'s, Croat"a, 4as an o-d a--y o( a ne4-y)re!n"("ed, res!r+ent Ger6any, 4h"'h 4as happy to 5r"n+ her o-d 'on(ederate "nto the .estern (o-dI and Y!+os-a,"a "tse-(, "n the de'ade a(ter T"to#s death, had endea,ored to 'a!ter"*e "ts "nterna- ethn"' and re-"+"o!s (a!-t -"nes 4"th on-y "n'o6p-ete s!''ess0 The .est#s de6on"*at"on o( the Ser5s 4as easy0 "rst, the Ser5s posed no 'on'e",a5-e threat to .estern "nterests, so there 4as no 68

dan+er "n anta+on"*"n+ the6I se'ond, they sho4ed the6se-,es !na5-e to present the"r s"de o( the story to .estern a!d"en'es 4"th any e(("'a'y0 V"--a"n"*"n+ the6, there(ore, 4as 5as"'a--y 'ost-ess0 It "s (ar eas"er to p"'1 on a 4ea1, -ar+e-y "nno'ent party than a stron+, '!-pa5-e one 4"th the 'apa'"ty to reta-"ate0 By thro4"n+ the Ser5s !nder the 5!s, one o( the .est#s o5@e't",es 4as e,"dent-y to 'o!rt Is-a6"' 4or-d op"n"on0 Co66ent"n+ on US s!pport (or the se'ess"on o( 3oso,o (ro6 Ser5"a, the -ate To6 Lantos, Cha"r6an o( the US Ho!se o( Representat",es ore"+n A((a"rs Co66"ttee, p!t "t th"s 4ayE =!st a re6"nder to the predo6"nant-y M!s-"6)-ed +o,ern6ents "n th"s 4or-d that here "s yet another eGa6p-e that the Un"ted States -eads the 4ay (or the 'reat"on o( a predo6"nant-y M!s-"6 'o!ntry "n the ,ery heart o( E!rope0 Th"s sho!-d 5e noted 5y 5oth respons"5-e -eaders o( Is-a6"' +o,ern6ents, s!'h as Indones"a, and a-so (or @"had"sts o( a-- 'o-or and h!e0 The Un"ted States# pr"n'"p-es are !n",ersa-, and "n th"s "nstan'e, the Un"ted States stands (o!rs8!are (or the 'reat"on o( an o,er4he-6"n+-y M!s-"6 'o!ntry "n the ,ery heart o( E!rope0 In short, the .est has 5een try"n+ to appease the Is-a6"' 4or-d 5y s!pport"n+ the"r 'a!se "n the Ba-1ans "n the hope o( 5ene("t"n+ (ro6, one s!pposes, 6ore (ree-y a,a"-a5-e o"- and (e4er a"r'ra(t 'rashed "nto 'ro4ded o(("'e 5!"-d"n+s0 The .est#s 'ont"n!ed perse'!t"on o( Ser5"a, ho4e,er, years a(ter Y!+os-a,"a#s de6"se, "nd"'ates deeper (or'es at 4or10 A6er"'a#s s!pport o( M!s-"6 A-5an"an terror"sts "n 3oso,o, "n part"'!-ar, 5ears not"n+0 It "s '-ear that, 5eyond e,en horr"5-y d"storted 'ons"derat"ons o( rea-po-"t"1, there "s an "deo-o+"'a- a(("n"ty 5et4een the 'onte6porary .est and Is-a6 that has es'aped 6ost o5ser,ers0 Th"s a(("n"ty has ena5-ed the .est and Is-a6 to 4or1 hand "n +-o,e a+a"nst a 'o66on ene6yE the o-d nat"on)state syste6 and "ts -ead"n+ representat",es "n the OrthodoG Chr"st"an, S-a,"' East0 Understand"n+ th"s a(("n"ty "s 1ey to !nderstand"n+ .estern 6ot",es "n the Ba-1ans and the 'ont"n!ed ant")

69

R!ss"an, ant")S-a,"', ant")OrthodoG att"t!de pre,a-ent "n the .est, espe'"a--y the Un"ted States0 At ("rst 5-!sh, the '-a"6 that the .est and Is-a6 4o!-d 5e a5-e to 'ooperate "n any s"+n"("'ant 4ay appears "ns!pporta5-e0 The .est and Is-a6 see6 to 5e po-ar oppos"tes0 Is-a6, "n "ts trad"t"ona- (or6, 6andates the "6pos"t"on o( Shar"a -a4 o,er the +-o5e, 4h"'h "n'-!des ston"n+ (or ad!-tery, a6p!tat"on o( -"65s (or the(t, a 5-an1et 6orator"!6 on the 'onstr!'t"on o( =e4"sh and Chr"st"an ho!ses o( 4orsh"p and a-- e,an+e-"s6, the (or'"5-e 'on,ers"on o( pa+ans and athe"sts on pa"n o( death, the pros'r"pt"on o( !s!ry, and the eGe'!t"on o( apostates H to start 4"th0 .h"-e Is-a6 see1s the po-"t"'a- s!pre6a'y o( C+odD and h"s -a4, the .est today see6s "ntent on sho,"n+ God and H"s -a4s as (ar o!t o( the p!5-"' s8!are as poss"5-e0 .estern 6an "s no4 so,ere"+nI he 'an do no 4ron+0 ANeed-ess to say, he 4o!-d not -ast ,ery -on+ !nder Shar"a0B Yet 4h"-e there are 6a@or d"((eren'es 5et4een Is-a6 and the .est, there are po4er(!- s"6"-ar"t"es0 Is-a6 (ro6 "ts 5e+"nn"n+s asp"red to +-o5a- 6astery0 A''ord"n+ to M!ha66ad and the 3oran, the -a4 o( A--ah "s pres'r"5ed (or the +-o5eI any nat"on or "nd","d!a- 4ho does not s!56"t to Is-a6"' r!-e "s "pso (a'to "n a state o( re5e--"on 4"th A--ah and 6!st 5e 5ro!+ht "nto o5ed"en'e 5y (or'e0 Is-a6, "n short, 'onst"t!ted an ear-y (or6 o( +-o5a-"*at"on0 It does not re'o+n"*e the -e+"t"6a'y o( nat"ons, peop-es, or +o,ern6ents eG'ept "nso(ar as they s!56"t to Is-a6"' o,er-ordsh"p0 So "t "s 4"th the .est today0 On-y "( a nat"on)state "s 4"--"n+ to p-ay 5a-- 4"th the .est on "ts ter6s "s "t 'ons"dered -e+"t"6ate0 L"1e Is-a6, the .est#s a65"t"ons are +-o5a-E there "s no -on+er any -on+)ter6 a''o66odat"on poss"5-e 5et4een the .est and a-ternat",e syste6s0 The .est e6p-oys "ts paro'h"a- de("n"t"ons o( Ch!6an r"+hts,D Cde6o'ra'y,D C(ree 6ar1ets,D et'0 to 'a@o-e and 5ro45eat nat"ons that re(!se to s!56"t to "ts e'ono6"' and strate+"' he+e6ony, or "t e6p-oys e'ono6"' press!re and, "( that (a"-s, 6"-"tary (or'e0 Nat"ons s!'h as Ch"na, Pa1"stan, 70

3a*a1hstan, and Sa!d" Ara5"a, 4hose re'ord on Ch!6an r"+hts,D et'0, "s 'he'1ered at 5est, es'ape ser"o!s .estern press!re than1s to the"r 4"--"n+ness to p-ay the .est#s po-"t"'a- and e'ono6"' 5a--+a6e0 The 'o66on +ro!nd then 5et4een the .est and Is-a6 "s that they are 5oth pro+ra6s o( +-o5a-"*at"on that ha,e as the"r o5@e't the destr!'t"on o( the o-d nat"on)state syste6 5ased on the so,ere"+nty o( states and nat"onhood de("ned 5y ethn"', -"n+!"st"', '!-t!ra-, and terr"tor"a- 'o66ona-"t"es0 Both Is-a6 and the 'onte6porary .est are essent"a--y e6p"res that see1 +-o5a- he+e6ony and do not re'o+n"*e the -e+"t"6a'y o( a-ternat",e (or6s o( po-"t"'a-, so'"a-, and '!-t!raor+an"*at"on "( they re(!se to s!56"t to the s!*era"nty o( the -ar+er syste60 ."th th"s "n 6"nd, "t "s not hard to see ho4 the .est and Is-a6 4o!-d 'onn",e "n the destr!'t"on o( "ndependent nat"on)states s!'h as Ser5"a that ha,e h"stor"'a--y res"sted 5oth syste6s0 In MarG"an par-an'e they are Co5@e't",e a--"esD "n th"s 'o66on a"60 o--o4"n+ the 5rea1!p o( the So,"et 5-o', the Eastern E!ropean 'o!ntr"es, espe'"a--y the OrthodoG 'o!ntr"es, 5e'a6e the -ead"n+ 'ha6p"ons o( the o-d nat"on)state syste60 Than1s to the Iron C!rta"n, these 'o!ntr"es 4ere re-at",e-y preser,ed (ro6 the po"sono!s e((e'ts o( .estern 'ons!6er"s6, 6!-t"'!-t!ra-"s6, and +enera- so'"a-)'!-t!ras!"'"de0 S"n'e the (a-- o( So,"et Co66!n"s6, 6ost o( the (or6er east) 5-o' states ha,e 5een (a--"n+ o,er the6se-,es to @!6p on the .estern 5and4a+on0 Those (or6er Co66!n"st states s!'h as R!ss"a and Ser5"a that reta"ned 6ore o( the"r S-a,"', OrthodoG, and nat"ona'ons'"o!sness, and 4h"'h 'onse8!ent-y present the +reatest potent"ares"stan'e to .estern and Is-a6"' eGpans"on, attra't the spe'"aant"pathy o( 5oth0 .e sho!-d 5ear "n 6"nd that .estern po-"'"es (or the past th"rty years ha,e 5een s!5stant"a--y pro)Is-a6 and pro)@"had"stE US s!pport (or the 6!@ah"deen ("+ht"n+ the So,"ets "n A(+han"stanI EC and -ater EU en'o!ra+e6ent o( M!s-"6 "66"+rat"on "nto E!rope and the propa+at"on o( Is-a6"' "dent"ty a6on+ E!ropean M!s-"6sI the 71

rep-a'e6ent 5y .estern (or'e o( the re-at",e-y se'!-ar re+"6e o( Sadda6 H!sse"n 4"th a +o,ern6ent 5ased "n Shar"aI 'r"t"'"s6 o( R!ss"a (or e((e't",e 'o!nter)@"had 6eas!res "n Che'hnya and the Ca!'!sesI s!pport (or e-e't"ons "n the Pa-est"n"an terr"tor"es 4"th the res!-t"n+ s!''ess o( the @"had"st +ro!p Ha6asI et'0 !rther6ore, "t "s eas"-y de6onstrated that, (or a-- the 5-!ster a5o!t ("+ht"n+ the C4ar on terror,D the US "s not rea--y that ser"o!s a5o!t red!'"n+ the threat o( Is-a6"' terror"s60 or6er V"'e Pres"dent R"'hard Cheney re6ar1ed short-y a(ter -ea,"n+ o(("'e that another 6a@or terror"st atta'1 "s not a 8!est"on o( "( 5!t 4hen0 Yet red!'"n+ the -"1e-"hood o( another s!'h atta'1 4o!-d 5e h!+e-y a"ded 5y a (e4 s"6p-e steps that the US and the .est re(!se to adopt0 N"ne years a(ter Septe65er 22, the 6ost spe'ta'!-ar nat"ona-) se'!r"ty)"nte--"+en'e (a"-!re "n 4or-d h"story, the Un"ted States, the 6ost a4eso6e e'ono6"' and 6"-"tary po4er o( a-- t"6e, has yet to +a"n 'ontro- o( "ts 5orders or to na6e the ene6y that "t "s s!pposed-y ("+ht"n+0 Rather, "t "ns"sts on 1eep"n+ "ts 5orders -ar+e-y !n'ontro--ed and on a(("r6"n+, t"6e and a+a"n, the prepostero!s not"on that Is-a6 "s Ca re-"+"on o( pea'eD "n 'ontrad"'t"on to the re-"+"on#s o4n 'ore teGts and h"stor"'a- re'ord0 In s!'h an a5s!rd 'onteGt, 'ont"n!"n+ US s!pport (or M!s-"6 eGpans"on "n the Ba-1ans "s a-6ost !ns!rpr"s"n+0 The (a"-!re to "6p-e6ent ser"o!s 5order)'ontro- 6eas!res or to na6e the ene6y "nd"'ates that the U0S0 "s -ess "nterested "n prote't"n+ "tse-( (ro6 terror"st atta'1 than "t "s "n ad,an'"n+ the 'a!se o( "ts o4n +-o5a- e6p"re, "ts C"6per"a- de6o'ra'y0D The 5!"-d"n+ o( the e6p"re "s s"+n"("'ant-y a"ded 5y the pers"sten'e o( a +rass)roots, ,"o-ent, re-"+"o!s "deo-o+y s!'h as Is-a60 By a5ett"n+ the +ro4th o( @"had"st '!-t!re 5oth "n the Is-a6"' 4or-d and "n the .est, the .estern e6p"re 5oth !nder6"nes o-d nat"ona- "dent"t"es and (osters a @!st"("'at"on (or "ts o4n e,er)eGpand"n+ po4er0 Is-a6 "s a per(e't (o"- (or .estern "6per"a-"s6E "t pro,"des a po4er(!- so-,ent to the o-d nat"on)states that 5ea!t"(!--y 'o6p-"6ents the '!-t!ra- a-"enat"on that "s the .est#s 4eapon o( 72

'ho"'e0 Is-a6#s +-o5a- a65"t"ons he-p @!st"(y .estern o,erseas 6"-"tary and "nte--"+en'e ad,ent!res 4or-d4"de, "0e0 the C+-o5a- 4ar on terror0D Ho4e,er, 4h"-e the "deo-o+"es o( Is-a6 and the 'onte6porary .est 5oth asp"re to +-o5a- 6astery, the (a't "s that the -atter "s "n'reas"n+-y the on-y +a6e "n to4n0 .h"-e s6a-- +ro!ps o( OrthodoG M!s-"6s 'ont"n!e to press the"r ,"o-ent, @"had"st a+enda sporad"'a--y aro!nd the +-o5e H 4"th the o''as"ona- spe'ta'!-ar s!''ess H .estern e'ono6"', '!-t!ra-, and 6"-"tary po4er "s, (or the 6ost part, 'arry"n+ e,eryth"n+ 5e(ore "t0 The Is-a6"' states the6se-,es, 4"th on-y a (e4 eG'ept"ons, are "nte+rat"n+ the6se-,es "nto the .estern)do6"nated +-o5a- +a6e0 The Is-a6"' 4or-d, 4h"-e st"-- possessed o( an a5"d"n+ re-"+"o!s or"entat"on, re6a"ns (ra+6ented and -ar+e-y "n'apa5-e o( 5r"n+"n+ ne4 nat"ons "nto the Is-a6"' (o-d sa,e (or the ta't"' o( pop!-at"n+ the6 4"th M!s-"6s Aand th"s on-y "nso(ar as other nat"ons per6"t the6, e0+0 .estern E!ropeB0 Is-a6 "s "n'reas"n+-y e6pty"n+ (ro6 the 'enter0 Is-a6"' +o,ern6ents tread a ("ne -"ne 5et4een the 6andates o( Shar"a, 4h"'h are (!nda6enta--y "6pra't"'a-, and the o,er4he-6"n+ 6"-"tary and e'ono6"' po4er o( the .est0 More and 6ore, Is-a6"' states are sho4"n+ the6se-,es 4"--"n+ to p-ay 5a-- 4"th the .est 4h"-e p!sh"n+ str"'t Shar"a and @"had to the per"phery and "nto /ar a- Har5, The Ho!se o( .ar, the non)M!s-"6 4or-d0 Syr"a, =ordan, E+ypt, L"5ya, Sa!d" Ara5"a, Ira8, Indones"a, 3a*a1hstan, T!r1ey, and 6ost Is-a6"' 'o!ntr"es are pretty 4e-- "nte+rated "nto the .estern)do6"nated e'ono6"' and 6"-"tary +-o5a- order e,en 4h"-e s"+n"("'ant e-e6ents "n those 'o!ntr"es 4aG nosta-+"' (or the +ood o-d days 4hen Shar"a r!-ed 6!'h o( the 1no4n 4or-d and /ar a- Is-a6 6ade the "n("de- nat"ons tre65-e0 The d"st"n't-y Is-a6"' po-"'"es o( those states, s!'h as they are, 'o6e 6a"n-y "n the (or6 o( en(or'"n+ as 6!'h Shar"a at ho6e as needed to pa'"(y M!s-"6 'onser,at",es and s!5s"d"*"n+ @"had"st terror"s6 a5road0 The"r -eaders are happy to 6eet and sha1e hands 4"th

73

the -ead"n+ "n("de- po4ers 5e'a!se they 1no4 those po4ers ho-d the e'ono6"' and 6"-"tary tr!6p 'ards0 These tr!6p 'ards are p-ayed 4"th re6ar1a5-e 'ons"sten'y a-6ost re+ard-ess o( the part"san or"entat"on o( part"'!-ar .estern +o,ern6ents0 .hate,er the d"((eren'es 5et4een the 6a@or po-es o( C6a"nstrea6D po-"t"'a- tho!+ht "n the .est today, ad,an'"n+ the 'a!se o( "6per"a- de6o'ra'y "s a po"nt o( +enera- a+ree6ent, espe'"a--y "n the US0 Under a r"+ht)4"n+ US ad6"n"strat"on, "6per"a-"s6 ass!6es an CA6er"'a)("rstD ,eneerI !nder a -e(t)4"n+ ad6"n"strat"on, C6!-t"-atera-"s6,D C'o)operat"on,D and Cen+a+e6entD ser,e as "ts 'o,er0 Pres"dent C-"nton#s Y!+os-a, ad,ent!res 4ere +enera--y portrayed as Ch!6an"tar"anD a't"onsI the As"an 4ars o( the t4o B!shes 4ere pa"nted as Cpatr"ot"'D 4ars to sa(e+!ard US "nterests and +et the 5ad +!ys0 Gra"ns o( tr!th "n a-- 'ases, o( 'o!rse, atop heaps o( (a-sehood0 U0S0)-ed .estern "6per"a-"s6 th!s ta1es on d"((erent shades depend"n+ on the part"san (-a,or o( the s"tt"n+ ad6"n"strat"on, 5!t the o,era-- pro+ra6 ad,an'es -ar+e-y !nh"ndered0 Ne"ther the -e(t nor the r"+ht 'an pro,"de e((e't",e res"stan'e to the +enera- "6per"a- pro+ra60 On the -e(t, 4e ha,e the r!nn"n+ 'r"t"'"s6 o( US)-ed (ore"+n and de(ense po-"'y as pro,o'at",e, destr!'t",e, and !n@!st0 There "s 6!'h tr!th there0 Unhapp"-y, 5o!nd !p 4"th s!'h 'r"t"'"s6 "s a stand"n+ apo-o+y (or e,ery5ody e-se, "n'-!d"n+ the Is-a6"' 4or-d, as "nno'ent ,"'t"6s o( U0S0 a++ress"on, and a 'onte6pt (or the re6a"n"n+ no5-e e-e6ents o( the .est s!'h as Chr"st"an"ty and +en!"ne patr"ot"s60 On the r"+ht, there "s re'o+n"t"on A6ore soB o( the dan+ers and d"stort"ons o( non).estern "deo-o+"es, s!'h as Is-a6, and o( the pro+ress",e '!-t!ra- s!"'"de o( the .est, yet there "s -"tt-e !nderstand"n+ o( the (a"-!res o( A6er"'an po-"'y or o( the destr!'t",eness o( .estern 6"-"tary ad,ent!r"s60

74

The errors o( the one are po!n'ed on 5y the other, and ,"'e ,ersa, s!'h that the "nane -e(t)r"+ht p"n+ pon+ 6at'h pro'eeds !n"6peded0 The a't!a- po-"'"es o( 5oth 4"n+s, ho4e,er, pro,e re6ar1a5-y s"6"-ar0 The US ad6"n"strat"ons s"n'e the end o( the Co-d .ar ha,e a-- en+a+ed, at one t"6e or another, "n a 6a@or o,erseas ad,ent!re that d"re't-y "n,o-,ed US 'o65at (or'es0 The 'ont"n!"ty +oes 5a'1 e,en (!rther, 5!t, 4"th the de'-"ne o( So,"et Co66!n"s6, there "s no 6a@or 'o!nter4e"+ht to A6er"'an)-ed po4er, and the "6per"atenden'"es o( the .est ha,e 5!rst "nto the open0 G!-( .ar I, the NATO 'a6pa"+n a+a"nst the Bosn"an Ser5s, the NATO 'a6pa"+n a+a"nst Ser5"a, A(+han"stan, G!-( .ar II, and the O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on#s ne4 A(+han o((ens",e are rea--y aspe'ts o( the sa6e pro+ra6 e,en 4h"-e Rep!5-"'an and /e6o'rat"' ad6"n"strat"ons ("nd so6e4hat d"((erent 4ays o( @!st"(y"n+ the60 I6per"a- de6o'ra'y ro--s on0 Hopes that a ne4 /e6o'rat"' ad6"n"strat"on 4o!-d re'ons"der the pro+ra6 o( "6per"a- de6o'ra'y ha,e not 5een 5orne o!t0 Ha,"n+ 5een pro6"sed C'han+e,D Pres"dent O5a6a#s s!pporters ha,e "n (a't +ot p-ed+es to 1eep <%,%%% troops "n Ira8 "nde("n"te-y and o( a 6!'h 4"der 4ar "n A(+han"stan0 The O5a6a ad6"n"strat"on has not so 6!'h retho!+ht the 4"sdo6 o( "6per"a- de6o'ra'y as rehashed "t0 O( spe'"a- re-e,an'e to the Ser5s "s the ret!rn o( C-"nton"an -o+"' to U0S0 po-"'y "n the Ba-1ans0 La6entat"ons a5o!t the B!sh ad6"n"strat"on#s Cd"sen+a+e6entD (ro6 the Ba-1an s'ene ha,e 5een +","n+ 4ay to ne4 'a--s to Cre)en+a+e,D 4h"'h 'an on-y 6ean 5ad ne4s (or the Ser5s and the +enera- hea-th o( the re+"on0 Ca--s (or the US to reass!6e -eadersh"p "n Bosn"a 5y Ba-1an perenn"a-s Paddy Ashdo4n and R"'hard Ho-5roo1e as 4e-- as ,ar"o!s th"n1)tan1ers ea+er to re-",e the +-ory days o( C-"nton"an ant")Ser5 stron+)ar6 d"p-o6a'y a-- ha,e the sa6e thr!stE the Ser5s H 4hether "n Be-+rade, Rep!5-"1a Srps1a, or the re6nant "n 3oso,o H st"-- ha,en#t -earned the"r -esson, and st"-- need to 5e ta!+ht one0

75

As -on+ as Ser5s des"re to re6a"n Ser5s H to reta"n the"r d"st"n't",e ethn"', -"n+!"st"', '!-t!ra- "nher"tan'e H they re6a"n personae non gratae0 .r"t"n+ "n $%%& "n the ?all Street /ournal, Morton A5ra6o4"t* and /an"e- Ser4er, 4h"-e po"nt"n+ o!t the Bosn"an M!s-"6 -eadersh"p#s pro+ra6 o( !nder6"n"n+ the po4er)shar"n+ arran+e6ent 4"th Rep!5-"1a Srps1a "n the (edera- rep!5-"', hasten to 5-a6e Ser5s (or the on+o"n+ tens"ons "n 5oth Bosn"a and 3oso,oE CThe root 'a!se (or 6ost o( th"s "nsta5"-"ty st"-- rests "n Be-+rade0D No4here, "t see6s, "s anyone 4"--"n+ to 'ons"der 4hether the /ayton a''ords a't!a--y sett-ed anyth"n+0 The pers"stent Ctens"onsD "n the re+"on are s!5stant"a--y .estern)"nd!'ed "atro+enes"s +!aranteed to -ea,e !nder-y"n+ "ss!es !nreso-,ed and the 4ay '-eared (or +enerat"ons o( .estern d"p-o6at"sts to pedd-e the"r ha'1neyed 4ares0 The ,"s"t to the re+"on 5y V"'e Pres"dent B"den H one o( the 6ost ,o'"(ero!s anta+on"sts o( the Ser5s d!r"n+ the C-"nton years H a(("r6s that US po-"'y to4ards the Ser5s "s on'e a+a"n ser"o!s and ser"o!s-y 6"s+!"ded0 The .estern 4ar a+a"nst the Ser5s "s part o( a +enera- pro+ra6 that the .estern e6p"re 4o!-d ,ery 6!'h -"1e to eGtend to the '!rrent 'ha6p"on o( the nat"on)state syste6 and h"stor"' a--y o( the Ser5s, R!ss"a0 .hat d"st"n+!"shes R!ss"a (ro6 other 'o!ntr"es today "s AaB that she "s a nat"on)state H a terr"tor"a-, ethn"', -"n+!"st"', '!-t!ra- and re-"+"o!s 4ho-e H and A5B that she has sho4n a 4"-- and a 'apa'"ty to re6a"n that 4ay0 L"1e Ser5"a, her nat"ona-)re-"+"o!s 'ons'"o!sness r!ns deeper than 6ost .esterners 'an (atho60 o--o4"n+ the d"sastro!s 2&&%s "n 4h"'h R!ss"a adopted .estern)sty-e Cre(or6s,D V-ad"6"r P!t"n -ed h"s nat"on 5a'1 onto a path o( nat"ona- re+enerat"on that has st"rred the "re o( the .estern +-o5a-"*ers0 One o( R!ss"a#s +reatest o((en'es "s the re@e't"on o( the .estern Cseparat"onD o( 'h!r'h and state0 In the OrthodoG trad"t"on, the nat"on "s an or+an"' 4ho-e that 'annot 5e 'ate+or"'a--y 'o6part6enta-"*ed "nto po-"t"'a- ,ers!s re-"+"o!s, se'!-ar ,ers!s sp"r"t!a-0 To CseparateD the 'h!r'h (ro6 the state "s a1"n to separat"n+ 76

the so!- (ro6 the 5ody, "0e0, to 1"-- "t0 The (r!"ts o( the .est#s Cseparat"onD are e,ery4here apparentE e6pty 'h!r'hes, r"s"n+ 'r"6e and de-"n8!en'y, d",or'e, '-"65"n+ s!"'"de rates, and the 4an"n+ o( the so'"a- s!r,",a- "6p!-se "n the (or6 o( 'o--aps"n+ 5"rth rates0 These pro5-e6s are not !n"8!e to the .est, 5!t they pre,a"- "n proport"on to the eGtent to 4h"'h a +",en so'"ety has adopted the 'onte6porary .estern pro+ra6 o( 6ora-)'!-t!ra- s!"'"de0 The on+o"n+ US)-ed perse'!t"on o( the Ser5s "s '-ose-y -"n1ed 4"th the one o( the 6ost pers"stent stra"ns o( .estern po-"'y, na6e-y, "ts R!ssopho5"a0 S"n'e the 'o--apse o( So,"et he+e6ony "n E!rope, the US)-ed .est has "nst"t!ted a ser"es o( h"+h-y a++ress",e po-"'"es that e,"n'e a tota- d"sre+ard (or R!ss"a#s trad"t"ona- sphere o( "n(-!en'e0 !rther eGpans"on o( NATO to R!ss"a#s 5orders 6ay d"re't-y "n,o-,e the Un"ted States and a-- o( .estern E!rope "n any 'on(-"'t 5et4een R!ss"a and the Ba-t"' 'o!ntr"es, terr"tor"es that R!ss"a d"re't-y r!-ed (or 'ent!r"es0 or .esterners to +et so6e "dea o( the eGtre6e -en+ths US) -ed ant")R!ss"an po-"'y has rea'hed s"n'e the '-ose o( the Co-d .ar, they sho!-d try to see th"n+s (ro6 R!ss"a#s po"nt o( ,"e40 Ho4 4o!-d A6er"'a rea't, one 4onders, "( the o-d USSR had e((e'ted po-"'"es 'o6para5-e to A6er"'a#s s"n'e 2&;&L Try th"sE T4enty years a+o, the de6o'rat"' re+"6es o( the NATO 'o!ntr"es d"s"nte+rate and are rep-a'ed 4"th pro)So,"et re+"6es that eGpeA6er"'an troops0 NeGt, "n 2&&2, the Un"ted States "tse-( s!((ers an "nterna- !phea,a- that sees a 6ass",e e'ono6"' 'ontra't"on and the se'ess"on o( A-as1a, Ha4a"", and TeGas0 /!r"n+ th"s t"6e o( US 4ea1ness, '","- 4ar 5rea1s o!t "n the Un"ted 3"n+do6 "n 4h"'h the .arsa4 Pa't "nter,enes and (a'"-"tates the 5rea1!p o( the 'o!ntry0 In 2&&;, the US de(a!-ts on "ts de5t and the do--ar 'o--apses0 Then, "n 2&&&, !nhappy 4"th En+-"sh Coppress"onD o( the S'ots, the USSR 5o65s London (or se,enty)e"+ht days0 The So,"et Un"on then eGtends .arsa4 Pa't +!arantees to .estern E!rope, Canada, and the (or6er US states o( Ha4a"" and A-as1a0 No4 the USSR "s prepar"n+ a 6!t!a77

de(ense a+ree6ent 4"th TeGas and 5!"-d"n+ a 6"ss"-e sh"e-d "n K!e5e' to sa(e+!ard a+a"nst ro+!e Lat"n A6er"'an states0 A5s!rdL The (ore+o"n+ "s a (a"r approG"6at"on o( ho4 .estern po-"'y appears (ro6 a R!ss"an standpo"nt0 That s!'h an a++ress",e po-"'y "s s"n'ere-y de(ended "n the .est as reasona5-e and de(ens",e test"("es to the !n-"6"ted eGtent o( .estern a"6s0 .h"-e those a"6s enta"- the s!5,ers"on and !-t"6ate destr!'t"on o( stron+ nat"on)states s!'h as R!ss"a, the pro'ess o( nat"ona- d"s"nte+rat"on "s not on-y (or (ore"+n 'ons!6pt"on0 The .est so (ar has 5een 6ost s!''ess(!- "n !nder6"n"n+ "ts o4n 'onst"t!ent nat"on)states0 The +enera- strate+y o( the e6p"re "s to !nder6"ne the nat!ra- and or+an"' 6eans o( po-"t"'aand so'"a- or+an"*at"on so as to -ea,e "ts o4n po4er !n'he'1ed H e,en at the eGpense o( "ts o4n 'onst"t!ent nat"on)states0 I6per"a- de6o'ra'y "s tr!-y s!pranat"ona-0 The nat"on)states "n the .est are a-6ost as 6!'h tar+ets (or so'"a-, po-"t"'a-, e'ono6"', and terr"tor"a- d"sso-!t"on as non) .estern nat"on)states0 The .estern)sponsored "deo-o+"'a- 6o,e6ents o( 6!-t") '!-t!ra-"s6 and 6ora- re-at","s6 Ato na6e 5!t t4oB ser,e to de-e+"t"6"*e the pr"n'"p-es o( 'o66on ethn"'"ty, -an+!a+e, re-"+"on, and terr"tory aro!nd 4h"'h peop-es and nat"on)states ha,e h"stor"'a--y or+an"*ed0 By -ea,"n+ the o(("'"a- "nst"t!t"ons o!t4ard-y "nta't 4h"-e e,"s'erat"n+ the6 (ro6 4"th"n, the e6p"re 'an "6p-e6ent "ts a"6s 4"tho!t (ear o( e((e't",e or+an"*ed res"stan'e (ro6 4"th"n the -e+a-) 'onst"t!t"ona- 'hanne-s o( po4er0 The 6oney and 6ed"a "nterests that ser,e the e6p"re#s a+enda ha,e 5e'o6e the tr!e 'enters o( po4er, the rea- +o,ern6ent, e,en 4h"-e the o(("'"a- -e+"s-at",e, eGe'!t",e, and @!d"'"a- "nst"t!t"ons reta"n the appearan'e o( a!thor"ty0 The 5ea!ty o( Cde6o'ra'yD "s that "t en+enders a 'onstant-y sh"(t"n+ -ands'ape that "s eas"-y 6an"p!-ated0 The de-e+"t"6at"on o( ethn"'"ty A"n part"'!-ar a6on+ the do6"nant .estern ethn"'"ty, 4h"tesB, -an+!a+e, re-"+"on A"n part"'!-ar, trad"t"ona(or6s o( Chr"st"an"tyB, and terr"tory (oresta--s any atte6pt 5y 78

representat",es 4"th"n the o(("'"a- "nst"t!t"ons to re'-a"6 the"r nat"ona"nher"tan'es0 A'1no4-ed+"n+ the .est#s 'r"6es a+a"nst the Ser5s, ter6"nat"n+ the 'ont"n!"n+ "n@!st"'es o( The Ha+!e C4ar 'r"6es tr"5!na-,D and re,ers"n+ the po-"'y on 3oso,o 4o!-d 5e the r"+ht p-a'es to start a pro'ess o( -on+)ter6 re'o,ery0 S!pport"n+ the nat"ona- and re-"+"o!s rea4a1en"n+ o( R!ss"a, as a hea-thy 6ode- (or nat"on)states e,ery4here, 4o!-d 5e another0 The !ny"e-d"n+ eGpans"on o( the .estern e6p"re "s today the +reatest threat to pea'e and (reedo6 "n the 4or-d0 The d"p-o6at"' and 6"-"tary 'a6pa"+ns d"re'ted a+a"nst the Ser5s d!r"n+ the past t4enty years and the .est#s 4"--"n+ness to a--y "tse-( 4"th as a-"en and destr!'t",e an "deo-o+y as Is-a6, are so6e o( the 6ost ,","d eGa6p-es o( the -en+ths to 4h"'h the U0S0)-ed .est 4"-- +o to "6pose "ts 4"-- on nat"ons that see1 to res"st "6per"a- de6o'ra'y0 The .est#s treat6ent o( the Ser5s sho!-d 5e a 'a!t"onary ta-e (or nat"ons s!'h as R!ss"a, 4ho ha,e so (ar res"sted .estern press!re 5y ,"rt!e o( the"r +reater s"*e and po4er0 The .est no4 o((ers the nat"ons o( the 4or-d t4o opt"onsE s!56"t to .estern e'ono6"' and strate+"' do6"nan'e and re6a"n "nta't, or see1 to re6a"n o!ts"de the .estern or5"t and (a'e destr!'t"on0 In e"ther 'ase, the res!-t H the -oss o( "ndependen'e and nat"onhood H "s the sa6e0 It "s the sa6e sort o( C'ho"'eD that re,o-!t"onary "deo-o+"es (ro6 Is-a6 to Co66!n"s6 ha,e o((ered and "t sho!-d +a-,an"*e res"stan'e e,ery4here0 L"1e a-- re,o-!t"onary pro+ra6s that ha,e so!+ht 4or-d 6astery, "6per"a- de6o'ra'y 'an on-y end "n 6ater"a- and sp"r"t!ao5-","on0 The .estern po-"t"'a- and e'ono6"' order "s a-ready sho4"n+ the stra"n0 The 8!est"on "s 4hether +en!"ne (or'es o( 'onser,at"on "n the .est 'an s!''eed "n re"+n"n+ "n the eG'esses o( "6per"a- de6o'ra'y 5e(ore a .estern "nterna- 'o--apse or a ,"o-ent 'on(rontat"on 4"th R!ss"a0 So (ar there "s not 6!'h +ro!nd (or opt"6"s60 79

#fter$ord Ca&ses and Le0acy of the Bosnian (ar Srd@a Tr"(1o,"'2

t a t"6e 4hen the U0S0 po4er and a!thor"ty are 'ha--en+ed aro!nd the 4or-d, so6e 1ey p-ayers "n Pres"dent O5a6a#s tea6 see the Ba-1ans as the -ast +eopo-"t"'a--y s"+n"("'ant area 4here they 'an assert the"r C'red"5"-"tyD 5y post!-at"n+ a 6aG"6a-"st set o( o5@e't",es as the on-y o!t'o6e a''epta5-e to the Un"ted States, and d!-y "ns"st"n+ on the"r (!-("--6ent0 .e ha,e a-ready seen th"s pattern 4"th 3oso,o, and no4 4e see an atte6pt to sta+e "ts rep-ay "n Bosn"a !nder the de6and (or 'onst"t!t"ona- re(or6, "0e0 'entra-"*at"on0 The ad,o'ates o( !n"tary Bosn"a st!d"o!s-y "+nore the (a't that s"6"-ar U0S0 po-"'"es 'ontr"5!ted to the 4ar 2; years a+o0 In Mar'h 2&&$ the -ate .arren ["66er6ann, the -ast U0S0 a65assador to Y!+os-a,"a 5e(ore "ts 5rea1!p and '","- 4ar, 6ater"a--y 'ontr"5!ted, 6ore than any other s"n+-e 6an, to the o!t5rea1 o( the 4ar "n Bosn"a) Her*e+o,"na0 The (a'ts o( the 'ase ha,e 5een esta5-"shed 5eyond reasona5-e do!5t and are no -on+er d"sp!ted 5y eGperts0 N"ne 6onths ear-"er, "n =!ne 2&&2, S-o,en"a and Croat"a de'-ared "ndependen'e, a 6o,e that tr"++ered o(( a short 4ar "n S-o,en"a and a s!sta"ned 'on(-"'t "n Croat"a 4here the Ser5s re(!sed to a''ept T!d@6an#s (a"t a''o6p-"0 These e,ents had pro(o!nd
1

/r0 Srd@a Tr"(1o,"', EGe'!t",e /"re'tor o( The Lord Byron o!ndat"on, "s the a!thor o( 'he S$ord of the ,rophet and 8efeating /ihad0

80

'onse8!en'es on Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na H 4h"'h 4as a ,er"ta5-e Y!+os-a,"a "n 6"n"at!re0 The Ser5s A>7 per'entB ada6ant-y opposed the "dea o( Bosn"an "ndependen'e0 The Croats A2: per'entB pred"'ta5-y re@e'ted any s!++est"on that Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na re6a"ns 4"th"n a Ser5)do6"nated r!6p Y!+os-a,"a0 A-"@a I*et5e+o,"N had de'"ded a year ear-"er that Bosn"a sho!-d a-so de'-are "ndependen'e "( S-o,en"a and Croat"a se'ede0 On $: e5r!ary 2&&2 he 4ent a step (!rtherE CI 4o!-d sa'r"("'e pea'e (or a so,ere"+n Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na, 5!t (or that pea'e I 4o!-d not sa'r"("'e so,ere"+nty0D The pro'ess '!-6"nated 4"th the re(erend!6 on "ndependen'e A$& e5r!ary 2&&$B0 The Ser5s d!-y 5oy'otted "tI @!st ?$ per'ent o( ,oters opted (or "ndependen'e, M!s-"6s and CroatsI 5!t e,en th"s ("+!re 4as short o( the t4o)th"rds 6a@or"ty re8!"red 5y the 'onst"t!t"on0 Th"s d"d not stop the r!6p +o,ern6ent o( I*et5e+o,"N (ro6 de'-ar"n+ "ndependen'e on > Mar'h0 S"6!-taneo!s-y one -ast atte6pt 4as !nder 4ay to sa,e pea'e0 The Port!+!ese (ore"+n 6"n"ster =ose C!t"-e"ro pers!aded the three s"des that Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na sho!-d 5e "ndependent 5!t "nterna--y or+an"*ed on the 5as"s o( ethn"' re+"ons or C'antons0D The 5rea1thro!+h 4as d!e to the Bosn"an Ser5s# a''eptan'e o( an "ndependent Bosn"a, pro,"ded that the M!s-"6s +",e !p the"r a65"t"on o( a 'entra-"*ed, !n"tary one0 I*et5e+o,"' appeared to a''ept "t0 +he 4i$$er$ann Mission 3 .hen I*et5e+o,"N ret!rned (ro6 L"s5on, ["66er6ann (-e4 (ro6 Be-+rade to Sara@e,o to te-- h"6 that the EU)5ro1ered dea- 4as a 6eans to Ca Ser5"an po4er +ra5D that 'o!-d 5e pre,ented 5y "nternat"ona-"*"n+ the pro5-e60 State /epart6ent -ater ad6"tted that the US po-"'y C4as to en'o!ra+e I*et5e+o,"' to 5rea1 4"th the part"t"on p-an0D 'he !e$ &ork 'imes AA!+!st $&, 2&&>B 5ro!+ht a re,ea-"n+ 8!ote (ro6 the 1ey p-ayer h"6se-(E The e65assy O"n Be-+radeP 4as (or re'o+n"t"on o( Bosn"a and Her*e+o,"na (ro6 so6et"6e "n e5r!ary on,D Mr0 ["66er6ann sa"d o( h"s po-"'y re'o66endat"on (ro6 81

Be-+rade0 CMean"n+ 6e0D Q I66ed"ate-y a(ter Mr0 I*et5e+o,"' ret!rned (ro6 L"s5on, Mr0 ["66er6ann 'a--ed on h"6 "n Sara@e,oQ CHe sa"d he d"dn#t -"1e "tI I to-d h"6, "( he d"dn#t -"1e "t, 4hy s"+n "tLD A(ter that 6o6ent I*et5e+o,"N had no 6ot",e to ta1e the EC) 5ro1ered ta-1s ser"o!s-y, @!st as the A-5an"ans had no 6ot",e to ne+ot"ate 4"th Be-+rade a(ter Pres"dent B!sh de'-ared "n T"rana "n =!ne $%%: that 3oso,o 4o!-d 5e'o6e "ndependent0 A(ter h"s en'o!nter 4"th ["66er6ann I*et5e+o,"N (e-t a!thor"*ed to rene+e on tr"part"te a''ord s"+ned "n L"s5on on-y days ear-"erE the U0S0 4o!-d 'o6e to h"s ass"stan'e to en(or'e the "ndependen'e o( a !n"tary Bosn"an state0 The 6ot",es o( A65assador ["66er6ann and h"s s!per"ors "n .ash"n+ton had no 5as"s "n the -a4 o( nat"ons or the not"ons o( @!st"'e0 The"r po-"'y de'"s"on 4as the end)res!-t o( the "ntera't"on o( press!re +ro!ps 4"th"n the A6er"'an po4er str!'t!re0 Th!s the 4ar "n the Ba-1ans e,o-,ed (ro6 a Y!+os-a, d"saster and E!ropean "n'on,en"en'e "nto a 6a@or test o( CU0S0 -eadersh"p0D Th"s 4as 6ade poss"5-e 5y a 5o+!s 'onsens!s that passed (or E!rope#s Ba-1an po-"'y0 Th"s 'onsens!s, a6p-"("ed "n the 6ed"a, -"6"ted the s'ope (or de5ate0 =!st as Ger6any so!+ht to pa"nt "ts Maastr"'ht diktat on the re'o+n"t"on o( Croat"a as an eGpress"on o( the CE!ropean 'onsens!s,D a(ter ["66er6ann#s "nter,ent"on .ash"n+ton#s faits accomplis 4ere 'a--ed Cthe 4"-- o( the "nternat"ona- 'o66!n"ty0D E!rope 4as resent(!5!t he-p-ess 4hen the U0S0 resorted to 'o,ert a't"on to s6!++-e ar6s "nto Croat"a and Bosn"a "n ,"o-at"on o( U0N0 reso-!t"ons0 ["66er6ann#s torpedo"n+ o( the EU L"s5on (or6!-a "n 2&&$ started a trend that (r!strated the E!ropeans, 5!t they 4ere he-p-ess0 C!t"-e"ro 4as e65"ttered 5y the US a't"on and 5-a6ed I*et5e+o,"N (or rene+"n+0 Had the M!s-"6s not done so, he re'a--ed "n 2&&<, Cthe Bosn"an 8!est"on 6"+ht ha,e 5een sett-ed ear-"er, 4"th -ess -oss o( -"(e and -and0D C!t"-e"ro a-so noted that the de'"s"on to rene+e on the a+ree6ent 4as not on-y I*et5e+o,"N#s, as he 4as en'o!ra+ed to s'!pper that dea- and to ("+ht (or a !n"tary Bosn"an state 5y (ore"+n 6ed"ators0D 82

+he Settin0 3 At the o!tset o( the 'r"s"s "n 2&&%)&2 6ost "nha5"tants o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na d"d not 4ant to 5e'o6e CBosn"ansD "n any po-"t"'a- senseI 5!t they 4ere !na4are o( the eGtent to 4h"'h the"r (!t!re depended on e,ents 5eyond the"r rep!5-"'#s 5o!ndar"es0 The r!-"n+ Lea+!e o( Co66!n"sts o( Y!+os-a,"a -"tera--y d"s"nte+rated "n the ("rst 6onths o( 2&&%0 The res!-t"n+ po4er ,a'!!6 4as (e-t "n Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na 6ore 1een-y than "n other rep!5-"'s 5e'a!se the Party r!-e there 4as 6ore r"+"d-y do'tr"na"re0 .hen the ("rst 6!-t")party e-e't"on s"n'e 2&>; ("na--y too1 p-a'e "n No,e65er 2&&%, the ,oters o,er4he-6"n+-y a'ted "n a''ordan'e 4"th the"r ethn"' -oya-t"es that pro,ed 6ore end!r"n+ than any "deo-o+"'a- d"((eren'es 5et4een the60 .hen the Bosn"an e-e't"on res!-ts 4ere ta--"ed, they e((e't",e-y read -"1e a 'ens!s p-a"n and s"6p-e0 The o,er4he-6"n+ share o( the ,oteM;% per'entM4ent to the three part"es that had +ro!nded the"r appea- "n the ethn"')nat"ona- "dent"ty and "ss!es0 The apparent a5"-"ty o( the three Cnat"ona-"stD part"es to 'ooperate "n the a(ter6ath o( the e-e't"on 4as 5ased on one th"n+ they a-- had "n 'o66onE the des"re to 5rea1 (ree (ro6 the T"to"st stra"t@a'1et0 Had Y!+os-a,"a not 5een 5rea1"n+ !p "n 2&&2)2&&$, th"s e6phas"s on trad"t"ona- "dent"t"es 4o!-d ha,e passed as a nat!ra-, de6o'rat"' ad@!st6ent to rea-"ty0 There 4as no "nterna- Bosn"an threat to pea'e "n ear-y 2&&2E 4hen "t 'a6e, the threat 4as (ro6 o!ts"de0 The Ser5s o( Bosn"a 4anted, o,er4he-6"n+-y, to preser,e the status Huo0 As they had no des"re (or the destr!'t"on o( Y!+os-a,"a, they 4ere (or'ed "nto reacti.e posture ,"s)X),"s those 4ho 4"--ed "ts d"s"nte+rat"on0 +he Ser)s% De$ands M E,en "( se-do6 stated 4"th s"6p-"'"ty and 'oheren'e, the Bosn"an Ser5s# ar+!6ent 4as '-earE they had -",ed "n one state s"n'e 2&2;, 4hen Y!+os-a,"a 'a6e "nto 5e"n+0 They re-!'tant-y a''epted T"to#s ar5"trar"-y deter6"ned "nterna- 5o!ndar"es 5et4een the s"G (edera- rep!5-"'sM4h"'h -e(t one th"rd o( the6 o!ts"de Ser5"a)properMon the +ro!nds that the Y!+os-a, (ra6e4or1 a((orded the6 a 6eas!re o( se'!r"ty (ro6 the repet"t"on o( the n"+ht6are o( 83

2&72)2&7<I 5!t they 'o!-d not s4a--o4 an "--e+a- r!se that a"6ed to t!rn the6 "nto 6"nor"t"es, o,ern"+ht, 5y !n'onst"t!t"ona- 6eans, "n the"r o4n -and0 E,en 4"tho!t the ,","d-y re6e65ered tra!6a o( the Se'ond .or-d .ar, they rea'ted "n 2&&2)2&&$ @!st as the An+-ophone '"t"*ens o( TeGas or Ar"*ona 6"+ht do "( they are o!t,oted, one day, "n a re(erend!6 de6and"n+ those states# "n'orporat"on "nto MeG"'o0 They de6anded the r"+ht that the terr"tor"es, 4h"'h the Ser5s ha,e "nha5"ted as 'o6pa't 6a@or"t"es -on+ 5e(ore the ,oya+e o( the May(-o4er, not 5e s!5@e'ted to the r!-e o( the"r r",a-s0 In the sa6e ,e"n the Protestant U-ster6en de6anded ) and 4ere +",en ) the r"+ht to stay apart (ro6 !n"ted Ire-and 4hen the nat"ona-"sts opted (or se'ess"on "n 2&$20 In the sa6e ,e"n the state o( .est V"r+"n"a 4as 'reated "n 2;?>, "n'orporat"n+ those 'o!nt"es o( the Co66on4ea-th o( V"r+"n"a that re(!sed to 5e (or'ed "nto se'ess"on0 The Loya-"sts o( U-ster and the Un"on"sts o( .est V"r+"n"a 4ere @!st as +!"-ty o( a C=o"nt Cr"6"naEnterpr"seD to 5rea1 !p Ire-and, or the O-d /o6"n"on, as 4ere the Ser5s o( Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na 4ho d"d not 4ant to 5e dra++ed "nto se'ess"on0 Y!+os-a,"a 4as a (-a4ed po-"ty, and "n pr"n'"p-e there sho!-d ha,e 5een no rat"ona- o5@e't"on to the str","n+ o( Croats, and e,en Bosn"an M!s-"6s, to 'reate the"r o4n nat"on)states0 B!t e8!a--y there 'o!-d ha,e 5een no @!st"("'at"on (or (or'"n+ o,er t4o 6"--"on Ser5s 4est o( the /r"na to 5e "n'orporated "nto those states a+a"nst the"r 4"--0 Y!+os-a,"a 'a6e to+ether "n 2&2; as a !n"on o( So!th S-a, peop-es, and not o( states, or terr"tor"a- !n"ts0 Its d",or'e sho!-d ha,e 5een e((e'ted on the sa6e 5as"sI the 5o!ndar"es o( the rep!5-"'s sho!-d ha,e 5een a-tered a''ord"n+-y0 'his is3 and has been3 the real foundation of the &ugosla. conflict e.er since the first shots $ere fired in the summer of )44)7 E,en so6eone as !nsy6pathet"' to the Ser5 po"nt o( ,"e4 as Lord /a,"d O4en 'on'eded that =os"p Bro* T"to#s "nternaad6"n"strat",e 5o!ndar"es 5et4een Y!+os-a,"a#s rep!5-"'s 4ere +ross-y ar5"trary, and that the"r redra4"n+ sho!-d ha,e 5een 'o!ntenan'edE 84

In'o6prehens"5-y, the proposa- to redra4 the rep!5-"'s# 5o!ndar"es had 5een re@e'ted 5y a-- e-e,en EC 'o!ntr"esQ OTPo r!-e o!t any d"s'!ss"on or opport!n"ty (or 'o6pro6"se "n order to head o(( 4ar 4as an eGtraord"nary de'"s"on0 My ,"e4 has a-4ays 5een that to ha,e st!'1 !ny"e-d"n+-y to the "nterna5o!ndar"es o( the s"G rep!5-"'s 4"th"n the (or6er Y!+os-a,"aQ as 5e"n+ those (or "ndependent states, 4as a (o--y (ar +reater than that o( pre6at!re re'o+n"t"on "tse-(0 O( the three ethn"')re-"+"o!s part"es "n Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na, the M!s-"6 partyMthe S/AM4as the 6ost rad"'a-, "n that "t a-one ad,o'ated a (!nda6enta- restr!'t!r"n+ o( the Bosn"an so'"ety "n a''ordan'e 4"th d","ne re,e-at"on0 It atte6pted to do so not on Bosn"a#s o4n ter6s, not 4"th"n the Rep!5-"'#s o4n -o'a- parad"+6, 5!t 4"th"n the ter6s o( the +-o5a-)h"stor"'a- pro'essMas "ts -eaders sa4 "tMo( the +-o5a- Islamic renaissance0 Many "n the .est ha,e 5een "n a state o( den"a- (or years a5o!t the nat!re o( A-"@a I*et5e+o,"N#s -on+)ter6 pro+ra6, pre(err"n+ to 5e-"e,e the"r o4n ass!ran'es that h"s 5-!epr"nt "s not CIs-a6"stD 5!t C6!-t"'!-t!ra-0D An -sla$ist Paradin0 as a De$ocrat H Not !n-"1e Is-a6"st part"es e-se4here Anota5-y the r!-"n+ =!st"'e and /e,e-op6ent Party, A3P, "n T!r1eyB the S/A had a p!5-"', Cse'!-arD (ront, and an "nner 'ore o( Is-a6"' 'adres that re6a"ned se6")'onsp"rator"a- "n the ear-y days0 Th"s "s ,","d-y des'r"5ed 5y one o( the party#s (o!nders 4ho had pre,"o!s-y 6ade a s!''ess(!- 5!s"ness 'areer "n the .est, Ad"- [!-("1arpa\"N0 He 4as appa--ed 5y the C(as'"stD 6ethods o( the S/A and 5y "ts C'onser,at",e, re-"+"o!s, pop!-"stD or"entat"on0 The root 'a!se 4as "n the 'ore 5e-"e(s o( I*et5e+o,"N, 4ho 4as an ad,o'ate o( Shar"a -a4 and a theor"st o( the Is-a6"' Rep!5-"' -on+ 5e(ore the ("rst shots 4ere ("red0 H"s ear-y ,"e4s 4ere "nsp"red 5y the tea'h"n+ o( the Grand M!(t" o( =er!sa-e6, A- H!sse"n", 4ho to!red the Ger6an)o''!p"ed E!rope prea'h"n+ that the Th"rd Re"'h and the M!s-"6 4or-d had a nat!ra- 'o66!n"ty o( "nterests0 I*et5e+o,"N#s "deas

85

-ater 6at!red "nto a 'o6prehens",e, pro+ra66at"' state6ent "n the Islamic 8eclaration H h"s de facto po-"t"'a- p-at(or6E The Is-a6"' 6o,e6ent 6!st, and 'an, ta1e o,er po4er as soon as "t "s 6ora--y and n!6er"'a--y so stron+ that "t 'an not on-y destroy the eG"st"n+ non)Is-a6"' po4er, 5!t a-so 5!"-d !p a ne4 Is-a6"' oneQ There "s no pea'e or 'oeG"sten'e 5et4een the Is-a6"' (a"th and non)Is-a6"' so'"a- and po-"t"'a- "nst"t!t"ons0 Th"s 4as a po-"t"'a- pro+ra6 par excellence0 The a!thor#s a5"d"n+ 'onte6pt (or .estern ,a-!es "s e,"dent "n h"s d"s6"ssa- o( M!sta(a 3e6a- Atat!r1#s re(or6sE CT!r1ey as an Is-a6"' 'o!ntry !sed to r!-e the 4or-d0 T!r1ey as an "6"tat"on o( E!rope represents a th"rd) rate 'o!ntry the -"1e o( 4h"'h there "s a h!ndred "n the 4or-d0D E-se4here, he a''epts the Ca'h"e,e6ents o( E!ro)A6er"'an '","-"*at"onD 5!t on-y "n the area o( Cs'"en'e and te'hno-o+yQ 4e sha-ha,e to a''ept the6 "( 4e 4"sh to s!r,",e0D In another re,ea-"n+ senten'e, I*et5e+o,"N d"s'!sses the stat!s o( non)M!s-"6s "n 'o!ntr"es 4"th M!s-"6 6a@or"t"esE CThe non)M!s-"6 6"nor"t"es 4"th"n an Is-a6"' state3 on condition that they are loyal Oe6phas"s addedP, en@oy re-"+"o!s (reedo6 and a-- prote't"on0D He ad,o'ates Cthe 'reat"on o( a !n"ted Is-a6"' 'o66!n"ty (ro6 Moro''o to Indones"a0D I*et5e+o,"N#s ,"e4s 4ere !nre6ar1a5-e (ro6 a trad"t"onaIs-a6"' po"nt o( ,"e40 The ("na- o5@e't",e "s 8ar al Islam, 4here M!s-"6s do6"nate and "n("de-s s!56"t0 That "s the 6ean"n+ o( h"s +eneros"ty to the non)M!s-"6s, Cpro,"ded that they are -oya-DE the non) M!s-"6s 'an 5e Cprote'ted persons,D 5!t on-y "( they s!56"t to Is-a6"' do6"nat"on0 In h"s da"-y po-"t"'a- d"s'o!rse I*et5e+o,"N 5eha,ed thro!+ho!t the 2&&%s as a de facto nat"ona-"st, (oster"n+ narro4-y)de("ned Bosn"a1 nat"ona-"st (ee-"n+ and see1"n+ to e8!ate the e6er+"n+ CBosn"a1D "dent"ty 4"th an "6a+"nary s!pra)ethn"' CBosn"a0D He 4as @!Gtapos"n+ the 'onstr!'t 4"th the t4o trad"t"ona--y Chr"st"an 'o66!n"t"esMSer5s 86

and CroatsM4hose -oya-t"es 4ere a--e+ed to -"e e-se4here, 4"th Be-+rade and [a+re5 respe't",e-y0 The t4o s"des o( h"s persona-"ty 4ere not at odds, s"n'e 4"th"n h"s ter6s o( re(eren'e the Bosn"a1) M!s-"6 ethn"'"ty 4as de("ned 5y re-"+"on0 To ha,e A-"@a I*et5e+o,"N, 4"th h"s re'ord and h"s ,"s"on, as the head o( a de6o'rat"', p-!ra-"st state any4here "n the 4or-d, "s o( 'o!rse !nth"n1a5-e0 B!t (or h"s pe'!-"ar ,"s"on to 5e app-"ed "n pra't"'e, Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na had to 5e ta1en o!t o( Y!+os-a,"a and pro'-a"6ed "ndependent and so,ere"+n0 I*et5e+o,"N#s 'h"e( 'on'ern 4as to ("nd a preteGt (or the "ntended separat"on (ro6 Y!+os-a,"aMany Y!+os-a,"aMand to !se the Croat ta't"'a- a--"an'e "n p!rs!"t o( that +oa-I the day o( re'1on"n+ 4"th the H/[ 'o!-d 'o6e -ater0 I*et5e+o,"N 4as 4"--"n+ to r"s1 the 4ar0 In the 2&&% e-e't"on 'a6pa"+n he sa"d that the M!s-"6s 4o!-d Cde(end Bosn"a 4"th ar6s0D In e5r!ary 2&&2 he de'-ared "n the Asse65-yE CI 4o!-d sa'r"("'e pea'e (or a so,ere"+n Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na, 5!t (or that pea'e "n Bosn"a)Her*e+o,"na I 4o!-d not sa'r"("'e so,ere"+nty0D By May 2&&2 he 4ent e,en (!rther, say"n+ that the 4ar "n Bosn"a) Her*e+o,"na pro5a5-y 'o!-d not 5e a,o"ded 5e'a!se C(or a state to 5e 'reated, (or a nat"on to 5e (or+ed, "t has to end!re th"s, "t "s so6e 1"nd o( (ate, dest"ny0D Th"s state6ent e'hoed h"s Is-a6"' (ata-"s60 .hen the Bosn"an Ser5s too1 'ontro- o( the Ser5)6a@or"ty areas and 'onne't"n+ 'orr"dors "n 2&&$, they 4ere 4e-- e8!"pped and o(("'ered0 B!t the n!6er"'a- ad,anta+e -ay 4"th the M!s-"6s, 4ho hoped to 4"n "n the end 4"th "nternat"ona- he-p0 Rada,an 3aradU"N ne,er !nderstood that th"s 4as, "ndeed, I*et5e+o,"N#s +rand strate+y, and that t"6e 4as not on the s"de o( the Ser5s0 In add"t"on the Ser5s 4ere se,ere-y da6a+ed 5y the .estern 6ed"a hand-"n+ o( the 6"streat6ent o( M!s-"6 pr"soners and the eGp!-s"on o( non)Ser5 '","-"ans "n the s!66er o( 2&&$0 S"6"-ar atro'"t"es 5y Croats and M!s-"6s a+a"nst Ser5s and a+a"nst ea'h other, 4h"-e e8!a--y 'o66on, 4ere dee6ed !n4orthy o( .estern attent"on0

87

The 6ed"a 'a-- (or "nter,ent"on 4as -a!n'hed "n the ear-y sta+e o( the 4ar0 Many E!ropeans 4ere "n'-"ned to s!pport a 'o6pro6"se pea'e, a (edera-"*ed Bosn"a, and a rea- ar6s e65ar+oI 4hereas the Un"ted States d"s-"1ed E!ropean pea'e p-ans, 5ro1e the ar6s e65ar+o start"n+ "n -ate 2&&>, and o,ert-y s!pported the M!s-"6s0 +he Meanin0 of Dayton H The end o( the 4ar 4as the res!-t o( a transat-ant"' 'o6pro6"seE London and Par"s re-!'tant-y a+reed to -et NATO 5o65 the Ser5s, 4h"-e the Un"ted States re-!'tant-y a''epted the sort o( sett-e6ent the E!ropeans had 4anted "n 2&&$)2&&>0 The 'h"e( o!t'o6e o( the 4ar 4as a trans(or6ed NATO, and the rene4a- o( A6er"'an -eadersh"p "n E!rope to an eGtent not seen s"n'e 3ennedy0 It esta5-"shed that A6er"'a 4anted to -ead, and to 5e "nd"spensa5-e, "n the pro'ess o( E!ropean reor+an"*at"on a(ter 2&;&0 In Bosn"a "tse-( the 4ar too1 -on+er than "t 4o!-d ha,e done 5!t the sett-e6ent that (o--o4ed /ayton "s not !n-"1e a p-a!s"5-e 'o6pro6"se that appeared to ha,e 5een rea'hed "n L"s5on "n Apr"- 2&&$0 R"'hard Ho-5roo1e, the 'h"e( U0S0 ne+ot"ator "n 2&&<, 5oasted a year -aterE C.e are re)en+a+ed "n the 4or-d, and Bosn"a 4as the test0D Th"s C4eD 6eant the Un"ted States, not Cthe .estD or Cthe "nternat"ona'o66!n"ty0D Indeed, no nat"on)state started and ("n"shed the Bosn"an story as a po-"t"'a- a'tor 4"th an !n'han+ed d"p-o6at"' persona-"ty0 Ea'h +reat po4er 5e'a6e a (or!6 (or the +-o5a- de5ate (or and a+a"nst "nter,ent"on, the de5ate (or and a+a"nst a 'erta"n 1"nd NATO, and an asso'"ated, 6ed"a)-ed "nternat"ona- po-"t"'a- pro'ess0 The "nter,ent"on"sts pre,a"-ed then and the"r narrat",e st"-- do6"nates the p!5-"' 'o66entary0 The '!rrent '-a6or"n+ (or !n"tar"*at"on ra"ses an o-d 8!est"on that re6a"ns !nans4ered 5y the Bosn"("ersE I( the o-d Y!+os-a,"a 4as !ntena5-e and e,ent!a--y 'o--apsed !nder the 4e"+ht o( the s!pposed-y "ns!r6o!nta5-e d"((eren'es a6on+ "ts 'onst"t!ent nat"ons, ho4 'an Bosn"aMthe Y!+os-a, 6"'ro'os6 par excellenceMde,e-op and s!sta"n the dyna6"'s o( a ,"a5-e po-"tyL 88

As (or the 'har+es that the RS "s (o!nded on 4ar 'r"6es, 4e need not hypothes"*e a pre)4ar C@o"nt 'r"6"na- enterpr"seD to ethn"'a--y '-eanse and 6!rder, to eGp-a"n the e,ents o( 2&&$)2&&<0 The 'r"6es that (o--o4ed 4ere not the res!-t o( anyones nat"ona-"st pro@e't0 These 'r"6e, as S!san .ood4ard notes, C4ere the res!-ts o( the 4ars and the"r part"'!-ar 'hara'ter"st"'s, not the 'a!ses0D The e((e't o( the -e+a- "nter,ent"on o( the C"nternat"ona'o66!n"tyD 4"th "ts a't o( re'o+n"t"on 4as that a Y!+os-a, -oya-ty 4as 6ade to -oo1 -"1e a 'onsp"rator"a- d"s-oya-ty to CBosn"aDM-ar+e-y "n the eyes o( peop-e 4ho s!pposed ex hypothesi that "( there "s a CBosn"aD there 6!st 5e a nat"on o( CBosn"ans0D In 2&7>)2&77 T"to 4as a5-e to (or'e the An+-o)A6er"'ans to pretend that h"s str!++-e 4as not 'o66!n"st re,o-!t"on0 In 2&&$)2&&< I*et5e+o,"' (or'ed the .est to pretend that h"s @"had 4as the de(ense o( C6!-t")ethn"'"ty0D Both pretenses 4ere a5s!rd0 The 'a6pa"+n a+a"nst the RS "s detr"6enta- to 4hat A6er"'a sho!-d stand (or "n the 4or-d0 It see1s to +",e (!rther 'reden'e to the 6yth o( M!s-"6 5-a6e-ess ,"'t"6hood, Ser5 ,"'"o!sness, and .estern "nd"((eren'e, and there(ore 4ea1en o!r reso-,e "n the +-o5a- str!++-e e!phe6"st"'a--y 1no4n as C4ar on terror"s60D The (or6er "s a 'r"6eI the -atter, a 6"sta1e0 Yet there "s no tr!e de5ate "n .ash"n+ton on the ends and !ses o( A6er"'an po4er, "n the Ba-1ans or any4here e-se0 O5a6a#s and B!sh#s rhetor"' d"((er, 5!t they are one re+"6e, "dent"'a"n s!5stan'e and 'onse8!en'e0 Its -ead"n+ -"+hts 4"-- +o on d"sp!t"n+ the ,a-"d"ty o( the e6er+"n+ 5a-an'e)o()po4er syste6 5e'a!se they re@e't the -e+"t"6a'y o( any po4er "n the 4or-d other than that o( the Un"ted States, 'ontro--ed and eGer'"sed 5y the6se-,es0 The proponents o( A6er"'an eG'ept"ona-"s6 4"-- s'o(( at the 4arn"n+ o( 2;2<, 2&2;, or 2&7< as "napp-"'a5-e "n the post)h"story that they see1 to 'onstr!'t0 They 4"-- 'on(ront the ar+!6ent that no ,"ta- A6er"'an "nterest 4orthy o( r"s1"n+ a 6a@or 4ar "s "n,o-,ed "n R!ss"a#s or Ch"na#s near)a5road 4"th the '-a"6 that the 4ho-e 4or-d "s A6er"'a#s near)a5road0 89

It "s ,eG"n+ that the de6and (or re1"nd-"n+ the Bosn"an 'r"s"s a(ter a-6ost 2< years o( pea'e 'o6es at a part"'!-ar-y dan+ero!s per"od "n 4or-d a((a"rsE the ret!rn o( asy66etr"'a- 6!-t"po-ar"ty0 o--o4"n+ a 5r"e( per"od o( post)2&&2 (!--)spe'tr!6 do6"nan'e, (or the ("rst t"6e a(ter the Co-d .ar the +o,ern6ent o( the Un"ted States "s (a'"n+ a't",e res"stan'e (ro6 one or 6ore 6a@or po4ers0 More "6portant than the anato6y o( the So!th Osset"an 'r"s"s "n A!+!st $%%;, or the Ta"4anese 'r"s"s (",e years (ro6 no4, "s the rea't",e po4ers# re(!sa- to a''ept the ,a-"d"ty o( .ash"n+ton#s "deo-o+"'a- ass!6pt"ons or the -e+"t"6a'y o( "ts res!-t"n+ +eopo-"t"'a'-a"6s0 At the sa6e t"6e, (ar (ro6 re'ons"der"n+ the he+e6ons"t"' ass!6pt"ons and '-a"6s o( the"r prede'essors, the 1ey (ore"+n po-"'y p-ayers "n the O5a6a Ad6"n"strat"on are +roo6ed on A-5r"+ht#s h!5r"s ACI( 4e ha,e to !se (or'e, "t "s 5e'a!se 4e are A6er"'a0 .e are the "nd"spensa5-e nat"on0 .e stand ta--0 .e see (!rther "nto the (!t!re0DB0 The o-d pre6"ses o( an "6per"a- pres"den'y H 4h"'h "n 4or-d a((a"rs trans-ates "nto the 8!est (or do6"nan'e and @!st"("'at"on (or "nter,ent"on"s6 H re6a"n !n'ha--en+ed0 U0S0 6edd-"n+ "n the Ba-1ans re6a"ns !na((e'ted 5y the on+o"n+ ("nan'"a- 'r"s"s, @!st as Mos'o4#s Co-d .ar eGpans"on"s6 4as enhan'ed, rather than '!rta"-ed, 5y the e,"dent short'o6"n+s o( the So,"et 'entra--y p-anned e'ono6y0

90

#ppendix A$erica%s Bosnian (ar S"r A-(red Sher6an2

he 4ar "n Bosn"a 4as A6er"'a#s 4ar "n e,ery sense o( the 4ord0 The Un"ted States ad6"n"strat"on he-ped start "t, 1ept "t +o"n+, and pre,ented "ts ear-y end0 Indeed, a-- "nd"'at"ons are that "t "ntends to a--o4 the 4ar to 'ont"n!e "n the near (!t!re, as soon as "ts M!s-"6 prot]+]s are (!--y ar6ed and tra"ned0 Ho4 "t d"d so "s 'o66on 1no4-ed+e0 .hy "t d"d so, and the "6p-"'at"ons (or A6er"'an de(ense and (ore"+n po-"'y +enera--y re6a"n to 5e e-!'"dated0 The (a'ts o( the 'ase are '-ear eno!+h0 In 2&&2, the 5rea1!p o( Y!+os-a,"a, a5etted 5y a re!n"("ed Ger6any ne4-y do6"nant "n the E!ropean Un"on, -ed to 'on(-"'t "n Croat"a and 5ro!+ht the (!t!re o( Bosn"a onto the a+enda0 It had 5e'o6e '-ear that 4hereas a !n"ted se'!-ar Bosn"a 4as (eas"5-e 4"th"n Y!+os-a,"aMany Y!+os-a,"aM"ts perpet!at"on as a so,ere"+n state 'reated ser"o!s d"(("'!-t"es0 A stron+ '!rrent o( M!s-"6 op"n"on -ed 5y A-"@a I*et5e+o,"N des"red to restore the status Huo ante 2;:;, 4hen Bosn"a 4as an Otto6an pro,"n'e r!-ed

S"r A-(red Sher6an A2&2&)$%%?B, 4r"ter, @o!rna-"st, po-"t"'a- ana-yst and (or6er ad,"sor to Pr"6e M"n"ster Mar+aret That'her, 4as a 'o)(o!nder and H !nt"- Mar'h $%%2 H Cha"r6an o( The Lord Byron o!ndat"on (or Ba-1an St!d"es0 Th"s art"'-e 4as S"r A-(red#s "ntrod!'t"on to #mericas Inter.ention in the 9alkans, a 'o--e't"on o( essays p!5-"shed 5y The Lord Byron o!ndat"on "n 2&&:0 Th"rteen years -ater the a!thor#s 1ey po"nts re6a"n as re-e,ant as they 4ere at the t"6e o( the 4r"t"n+0

91

5y the Shar"a -a4, 4"th "ts Chr"st"an 6a@or"ty "n s!5@e't"on and s!5ord"nat"on0 Not e,en I*et5e+o,"N#s pro(ess"ona- apo-o+"sts "n the .est deny that !nder Y!+os-a,"a the M!s-"6s o( Bosn"a 4ere a''orded '","and po-"t"'a- r"+hts e8!a- to, or 5etter than, those en@oyed 5y other nat"ons "n the (ederat"on0 Th"s s"t!at"on 4as "nherent-y !na''epta5-e to 'o66"tted M!s-"6s, ho4e,er, (or 4ho6 Is-a6"' r!-e "ndependent o( "n("de- po4er 4as a re-"+"o!s prere8!"s"te0 Th"s ,"e4 4as open-y espo!sed "n the"r o4n p!5-"'at"ons d!r"n+ the per"od o( Y!+os-a,"a#s d"s"nte+rat"on, nota5-y "n the per"od"'a- Islamska >isao and "n I*et5e+o,"N#s Islamic 8eclaration, tho!+h bien pensants are as re-!'tant to ta1e "t ser"o!s-y as an eGpress"on o( "ntent as the"r prede'essors 4ere -oath to ta1e >ein -ampf ser"o!s-y0 At the o!tset o( the 'r"s"s, 6ost "nha5"tants o( Bosn"a) Her*e+o,"na d"d not 4ant to 5e'o6e CBosn"ansD "n any po-"t"'a- sense0 The Croats, 'on'entrated "n 4estern Her*e+o,"na, so!+ht se'ess"on (ro6 Y!+os-a,"a "n order to (a'"-"tate the"r !n"on 4"th an en-ar+ed Croat"a0 The Ser5s, (or the"r part, 4anted to re6a"n -"n1ed to the"r 5rethren east o( the /r"na r",er, ha,"n+ s!((ered (or 'ent!r"es !nder a-"en 6"sr!-e, "n'-!d"n+ the '-er"'o)(as'"st Usta\a re+"6e, 4h"'h "n 2&72)2&7< perpetrated +eno'"de a+a"nst the Ser5s o( Croat"a and Bosn"a 4"th a't",e M!s-"6 part"'"pat"on0 At a-- e,ents, the E!ropean Un"on, ha,"n+ 'ontr"5!ted to the 5rea1!p o( Y!+os-a,"a at Ger6an pro6pt"n+ 4h"'h !n-eashed 4ar "n Croat"a, so!+ht to pre,ent the sa6e th"n+ happen"n+ "n Bosn"a0 The E!ropeans 5ro1ered an a+ree6ent, "n"t"a-ed "n ear-y 2&&$ "n L"s5on 5y -eaders o( the three 'onst"t!ent nat"ons "n Bosn"aMSer5, Croat, and M!s-"6M4ho ret!rned to the"r respe't",e stron+ho-ds 'o66"tted to see1"n+ rat"("'at"on (ro6 the"r asse65-"es0 At that po"nt A6er"'a a'ted (ate(!--y0 or reasons 4h"'h re6a"n !n'-ear, a't"n+ Se'retary o( State La4ren'e Ea+-e5!r+erM4ho 1ne4 Y!+os-a,"a 4e-- (ro6 h"s ter6 as A65assador there and as 92

5an1er s!5se8!ent-yM"nstr!'ted .arren ["66er6an, the U0S0 A65assador "n Be-+rade, to (-y posthaste to Sara@e,o to pers!ade I*et5e+o,"N to rene+e on the a+ree6ent0 He needed -"tt-e pers!as"on, d!-y rene+ed on the a+ree6ent, and appea-ed (or s!pport "n the M!s-"6 4or-d0 The Bosn"an 4ar 5e+an0 It has yet rea--y to end0 As "n Gree1 tra+edy, one a't"on 5y a prota+on"st, Ea+-e5!r+er, set a tra"n o( e,ents "rre,o'a5-y "n 6ot"on0 /!r"n+ the years that (o--o4ed, A6er"'a p!--ed the str"n+s (ro6 the 5a'1+ro!nd, en'o!ra+"n+, ar6"n+, a"d"n+, and a5ett"n+ the M!s-"6s0 .ash"n+ton 1ept press"n+ EU 6e65ers, -"1e Br"ta"n and ran'e, 4h"'h had ser"o!s 6"s+","n+s to a''ept "ts faits accomplis0 R!ss"a 4as (or'ed to toe the -"ne !nder the 6ost "nept ad6"n"strat"on "t has e,er had0 The U0S0 en'o!ra+ed and (a'"-"tated the d"spat'h o( ar6s to the M!s-"6s ,"a Iran and Eastern E!ropeMa (a't 4h"'h 4as den"ed "n .ash"n+ton at the t"6e "n the (a'e o( o,er4he-6"n+ e,"den'e0 A6er"'a !sed NATO and UNPRO OR as "ts po-"'y "nstr!6ents, and 5-o'1ed a-- pea'e 6o,es, o( 4h"'h there 4ere se,era- 5et4een 2&&$ and 2&&<0 Then, ha,"n+ e((e't",e-y pre,ented the E!ropeans (ro6 rea'h"n+ a+ree6ent, the Un"ted States 4as a5-e to 'orra- the6 "nto a 6"-"tary o((ens",e "n the s!66er o( 2&&<, spar1ed o(( 5y sta+ed "n'"dents re6"n"s'ent o( the 5att-esh"p Ma"ne and the G!-( o( Ton1"n "n'"dent0 B!t 4hyL Here 4e ha,e the 6ost po4er(!- 'o!ntry on earth at the present t"6e deep-y "n,o-,ed "n Ba-1an a((a"rs A4h"'h 5ear a5so-!te-y no re-at"onsh"p to A6er"'an se'!r"tyB, eGtend"n+ "ts po4er "nto Eastern and So!theastern E!rope, and "n,o-,"n+ "tse-( deep-y "n a n!65er o( -on+)stand"n+ and perhaps "n'!ra5-e nat"ona- 'on(-"'tsQ The en-ar+e6ent o( NATO, at a t"6e 4hen E!rope "s as pea'e(!- as "t has e,er 5een, enta"-s the 6"-"tar"*at"on o( (ore"+n po-"'y, the ,ery ant"thes"s o( the A6er"'an trad"t"on "n "nternat"ona- re-at"ons0 Made-e"ne A-5r"+ht, spea1"n+ as U0S0 a65assador to the UN, stated !ne8!",o'a--y that the U0S0 po-"'y "n Bosn"a 4as Cthe (o!ndat"on o( "ts 93

po-"'"es (or E!rope0D .e need to 'ons"der the "6p-"'at"onsE -y"n+ and 'heat"n+, (o6ent"n+ 4ar "n 4h"'h '","-"ans are the 6a"n 'as!a-ty and "n 4h"'h an'"ent hatreds (eed on the6se-,es, "n,o-,"n+ A6er"'a "n a 6ae-stro6 eas"er to enter than to -ea,e, and a5o,e a-- r"s1"n+ -on+)ter6 'on(-"'t 4"th a R!ss"a 4h"'h "s on-y part-y re6o,ed (ro6 "ts re'ent "6per"a-"st past0 One 'an !nderstand the pr"n'"p-e o( U0S0 "n,o-,e6ent "n C!5a, G!ate6a-a, or Ha"t", e,en "( one does not ne'essar"-y appro,e o( part"'!-ar po-"'"es0 A6er"'a "s o( ne'ess"ty "n,o-,ed "n he6"spher"' a((a"rs, and "t has trad"t"ona--y 5een "n,o-,ed "n CNorth At-ant"',D "0e0, E!ropean, a((a"rs, to the eGtent o( t4o 4or-d 4ars and the Co-d .ar0 B!t 4hat "s the re-e,an'e o( the Ba-1ans and the B-a'1 SeaL And 4hat "s the po"nt o( 'reat"n+ and ar6"n+ a 6"-"tant-y M!s-"6 po-"ty "n the Ba-1ans 4h"'h "ne-!'ta5-y +",es Iran a (ootho-d there and a ro!te "nto Centra- and .estern E!rope (or s!5,ers"on and terrorL An atte6pt 4"-- 5e 6ade "n these pa+es to eGa6"ne Crat"ona-D and C"deo-o+"'a-D reasons (or do"n+ so0 The U0S0 has trad"t"ona--y 4or1ed 4"th so6e !+-y despot"s6s, and "s st"-- do"n+ so, ,"*0 Sa!d" Ara5"a, 3!4a"t, or Pa1"stan0 B!t to "nter,ene "n (a,or o( Is-a6"' (!nda6enta-"s6, to he-p eGpe- Ser5s (ro6 -and they ha,e "nha5"ted as 6a@or"t"es (or 'ent!r"es, and to adopt the Ger6an)en'o!ra+ed dr",e to re,erse 4hat "s -e(t o( the Versa"--es pro,"s"ons does not 6a1e sense0 The te6ptat"ons o( "6per"a- arro+an'e are not ne4, e,en "n the Un"ted States0 They sho!-d not 5e (or+otten @!st 5e'a!se A6er"'a 4as, "n so6e part, prote'ted (ro6 th"s arro+an'e 5y the +en!"ne 4e"+ht and 5!rden, 6ore "6posed than 'hosen, o( de(end"n+ the (ree 4or-d a+a"nst Na*" Ger6any and Sta-"n"st R!ss"a0 The end o( the Co-d .ar has str"pped o(( th"s prote't"on0 Yet the .h"te Ho!se has 'hosen a Se'retary o( State 4ho "s a Co-d .ar @!n1"e, a 'onno"sse!r o( 'on(rontat"on, a 4o6an -","n+ too pass"onate-y "n the past, ea+er to se"*e the ("rst opport!n"ty to sho4 ho4 the o-d 5att-es sho!-d ha,e 5een (o!+ht, ho4 the .est sho!-d ha,e 4on at M!n"'h0 Let !s not 5e 94

s!rpr"sed "( a-- the ta-1 o( -eadersh"p, reso-,e, ("r6ness, and ne4 "nterests "s a preparat"on (or 4ar and the no6"nat"on o( ne4 ene6"es0 To present the Un"ted States as the 4or-d#s po-"'e6an, @!d+e, and @!ry 6ay or 6ay not p-ay 4e-- "n 'a6pa"+n rhetor"', 5!t the "dea "s end-ess-y sed!'t",e (or the .ash"n+ton 'o66!n"ty o( (ore"+n po-"'y pro(ess"ona-sMo(ten poor-y ed!'ated, h"+h on eG'"te6ent, and -o4 "n states6an-"1e pat"en'e0 They (ear, 8!"te "rrat"ona--y, that the 4or-d 4"-happ"-y pass the6 5y !n-ess A6er"'a "6poses herse-(, Cr"ses to the 'ha--en+e,D and thro4s her 4e"+ht a5o!t0 The (ore"+n po-"'y 'o66!n"ty 4ants the (ee-)+ood (a'tor, the 4"nn"n+)the)Co-d).ar +-o4, to +o on and on0 B!t to -",e (or the adrena-"ne and +-ory o( yesterday and yesteryear "s to r"de (or a (a-- and to 4a-1 4"th h!5r"s0 Can the yearn"n+ to 5e the 4or-d#s po-"'e6an 5e the 5as"s o( po-"'yL I( the po"son "s at 4or1, "t 6ay 5e dete'ted0 Ins"de the State /epart6ent and the CIA, there "s a-4ays roo6 (or the pretense that po-"'y "s 6ore -"6"ted and 'a-'!-ated than the pass"ons and arro+an'e 4h"'h 6ay dr",e "t0 Ger6an po-"'y 5e(ore 2&27 4as a-so so6et"6es de("ned, on paper, 5y 6en 6ore rat"ona- than those 4ho too1 the "n"t"at",es and 6ade the 'ho"'es0 The po4er and prest"+e o( A6er"'a "s "n the hands o( peop-e 4ho 4"-- not res"st the te6ptat"on to "n,ent ne4 6"ss"ons, -ay do4n ne4 e65ar+oes, and (a5r"'ate ne4 'o!rts0 or the t"6e 5e"n+, they 'ontro- the Un"ted Nat"ons, the .or-d Ban1, 6ost o( the 4or-d#s h"+h) te'h 4eapons, and the ,ast 6a@or"ty o( the sate--"tes 4h"'h 4at'h !s (ro6 e,ery 8!adrant o( the s1"es0 Th"s "s the opport!n"ty they sense, and 4e 6!st as1 4hat a65"t"ons they 4"-- de'-are neGt0 The p!rs!"t o( 4or-d "6portan'e (or the sa1e o( 4or-d "6portan'e "s the +reat te6ptat"on "n h!6an h"story, the path o( r!"n that 4"nds (ro6 RerGes, the Pers"an 1"n+ o( 1"n+s, to H"t-er, the A!str"an 'orpora-)tyrant0 It "s the path 4h"'h Geor+e .ash"n+ton (or5ade A6er"'a e,er to ta1e0 The A6er"'an peop-e 4"-- ne,er 'hoose "t, 5!t 'an they pre,ent "tL The A6er"'an (ore"+n po-"'y e-"te "s -o'1"n+ 95

"tse-( onto th"s path, and the"r 'o'onsp"rators "n the 6ed"a 'orporat"ons are 'a--"n+ "t a p"-+r"6a+e0 Bosn"a 4as the a'"d test0 They 1ne4 4hy they sho!-d not +o "nI 5!t they 'o!-d not res"st0 The 'o65"nat"on o( h"+h 6ora- p!rpose, ho4e,er tr!6ped !p 5y the 6ed"a, and the 'han'e to sho4 E!rope that Con-y A6er"'a de'"desD 4as @!st too "ntoG"'at"n+0 At the t"6e o( th"s 4r"t"n+, A6er"'a "s !n"8!e-y po4er(!-0 It 4"-- not a-4ays 5e so0 In the 'o!rse o( t"6e, R!ss"a 6ay +a"n "ts potent"a- stren+th, and there "s ,ery -"tt-e the Un"ted States 'an do a5o!t Ch"na#s de,e-op6ent one 4ay or the other0 A -a4 o( h"story "s that po4er tends to +enerate 'o!nter,a"-"n+ po4er0 .e do not 1no4 ho4 th"s 4"-- 'o6e a5o!t0 .e 'an do -"tt-e 6ore than +!ard a+a"nst arro+an'e and o,ereGtens"on, and 6"n"6"*e the po"nt-ess sa'r"("'es they !s!a--y enta"-0 The 'ontr"5!tors to th"s ,o-!6e sho!-d 5e pro!d to ha,e ta1en part "n th"s endea,or0

96