Using of GIS and RS Tools in Monitoring Climate Change Impact on the Delta Coastal Zone Mahmoud H Ahmed, Prof.

Head Marine Sciences Department, NARSS mahahmed_narss@narss.sci.eg

Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta December 26, 2011, CLAC

Why Egypt has to be involved?

The impact of Climate Change in Egypt is predicted to be severe, such as increasing drought, sea level rise and more frequent and severe storms.

* Source vulnerability looks at access to fossil fuels and renewable energy, and the potential size of employment and income shocks following the introduction of some form of carbon tax.Impact vulnerability or proneness to climate-related hazards and sea-level riseor. Source:Country Stake in Climate Change Negotiations, The World Bank 2007

Objectives I
to improve understanding of how global change, especially climate change in its interaction with other drivers (land-use change, nutrient loading, acid deposition, toxic pollution) has changed, is changing and will change the structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems;
to encapsulate this understanding in the form of predictive, testable models; to identify key taxa, structures or processes (indicators of aquatic ecosystem health) that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour;

Objectives II
to identify better approaches for the re-naturalisation of ecosystems and habitats in the context of global change that will lead to the successful fulfilment of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in achieving good ecological status in coastal water habitats; to provide guidance, in the form of useable models, decision support systems and other appropriate tools to respond to the interactions between climate and other changes, in the best interests of conservation of the goods and services provided to the community by its coastal water systems; to communicate this information and understanding to users, stakeholders and the wider public.

Aims and project structure how will (Egyptian) freshwater

ecosystems respond to future climate change directly and indirectly, through interactions with hydro-mophodynamics, eutrophication, acidification and toxic substances?

how can delta coastal water systems thereby be better managed, e.g. with respect to the Egyptian CZM guidelines?

Century

Time Scales

Decade

Year

Day/ Month

STDCC Beach erosion/accretion Sediment transport Human activities Seasonal changes of physical processes Drainage systems & Water table

MTDCC Shoreline changes Lagoon r\eclamation Siltation Dunes movements Coastal protection Coastal water quality Building (resevoir/ harbours/ etc.)

LTDCC Climate variability Lagoons shirinking Pollution Coastal ecology Sedimentation problem Beaches / shoreline disappearing Population at risk Eutrophication change

VLTDCC Delta morphodynamic change Sea Level Rise Impact Reshaping the dunes Land (wet/dry) at loss Population at loss New natural resources (funa & flora)

STDCC Short-term Delta Coastal Change MTDCC Medium-term Delta Coastal Change LTDCC Long-term Delta Coastal Change VLTDCC Very Long-term Delta Coastal Change

Low land

Inlets

Lagoons

Coastal Cells

Nile Delta

Space Scale
Time/Space Scale of morphological and ecological coastal changes over the Nile delta.

Research Priorities
The future of coastal water ecosystems in Egypt is highly uncertain. An intensified

research effort is required:

(i) models need improving, especially to incorporate ecological processes adequately; (ii) high quality, long-term monitoring programmes need to be maintained and extended both to test models and to improve understanding of the key processes that control system responses to climate change; and (iii) key data-sets need to be archived and made available for analysis on a Egyptian scale to assess continually the changing state of coastal water ecosystems in time and space.

Flash Flood Potential

Drainage Pattern order: First order Second order Third order

Sub-watersheds: Total number of pixels more than 15000 Total number of pixels between 12000-15000 Total number of pixels between 10000-12000

In addition to these generic requirements, there is more specifically a need to:

Develop adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the ecological
status and biodiversity of Egyptian coastal water ecosystems at the catchment scale Understand the migration, remobilisation, redeposition, eco-physiological and food-chain

impact of toxic substances (especially Hg and POPs) in remote regions of Egypt (and the
regional countries) in the face of climate change Understand and model the generation, fate and impact of nitrogen and dissolved organic

carbon in Arab countries coastal water ecosystems as a result of changes in landuse/management, climate change and acid deposition Assess the impact of future climate change on the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal water ecosystems Understand the impact of future climate change on the supply and management of water needed to sustain aquatic ecosystems in dry areas, especially the south Mediterranean region.

Using Satellite Image 2010 for Land use map of Nile delta Coastal Governorates

SeaWiFS-derived Chl, 6 January 2003

0.01

0.1

1.

10.

64.

Chl [mg m-3]

MODIS simulated true-color image, 6 January

Climate Change Impact on Nile delta Coastal Governorates

Weather Modeling Activities at NARSS

Use of Satellite Data In NWP at NARSS Modeling of Egypt Regional Model of North Africa And Mediterranean Sea Regional Model of Nile Basin

Regional Model of Africa NWM of the Temperature Inversion Over Cairo High Performance Computing Activities

NARSS Modeling-Simulation and Visualization Lab

NOAA AVHRR Data Post Products

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from channels 1 (VIS) and 5 (NIR) radiance using the following formula: NDVI= channel 5 / channel 4

Heat and moisture fluxes

The southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea is essentially arid with precipitation rate of average value of 100 mm/year. On the other hand, highly positive radiation balance is observed (estimated as 70,000 cal/cm2 /year). A relatively high water temperature and high evaporation which exceeds 1200 mm/year. The air temperature varies from a minimum around 10o C in winter to a maximum of about 31oC in summer.

NOAA AVHRR Data Post Products

Land surface temperature (LST) calculated from channels 4 and 5 (Thermal infra red) brightness temperature using the following formula:

NOAA AVHRR Data Post Products

Sea Surface Temperature
42
.000000

19.000000

24.000000

29.000000

34.000000

39.000000

Sea surface temperature (LST) calculated from channels 4 and 5 (Thermal infra red) brightness temperature using the following formula:
SST MCSST= B1 (T11) + B2(T11-T12) + B3(T11-T12)(Secq -1) - B4
Value
-12 - 8 C 9 - 17 C 18 - 22 C 23 - 24 C 25 - 26 C 27 - 28 C 29 - 33 C

37.000000

32.000000

27.000000

.000000

32

.000000

37

.000000

27

34 - 41 C 42 - 59 C

22.000000

19

.000000

24

.000000

29

.000000

34

.000000

39

.000000

150 75 0

150

300

Kilometers 450

17

.000000

22

.000000

Weather Modeling Activities at NARSS

Use of Satellite Data In NWP at NARSS Regional Model of Egypt Regional Model of North Africa and Mediterranean Sea Regional Model of Nile Basin

Regional Model of Africa NWM of the Temperature Inversion Over Cairo High Performance Computing Activities

Toshkan Model

NARSS Modeling-Simulation and Visualization Lab

Grid : 804x384x32 10Km Grid Pts : 9.8 M Cell

Grid : 420x540x32 10Km Grid Pts : 8.6 M Cell

Temperature Distribution

Velocity Field at 10m Elevation

Velocity Vector At Elevation 2.7Km

Relative Humidity Relative Humidity

Isolines
DEM of the coast of the island Langeoog including isolines.

River Nahe DEM close to Simmertal including isolines.

Coast and Breakwaters

Coastline close to Den Haag 700m*700m 0m-24m pseudo-coloured

Coastline close to Den Haag 700m*700m 0m-10m pseudo-coloured. enhanced breakwaters.

Conclusions
The techniques and methodologies for vulnerability assessment of Egypt's coastal zones are reasonably well identified ( e.g. IPCC methodology based on remote sensing and GIS ).
The coastal zone of Egypt is seriously vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and changes in weather patterns from both the physical and the socioeconomic points of view . Large areas of the governorates of Alexandria, Behaira, Kafr El-Shiekh, Port Said, Damietta and Suez, are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise.

The coastal zones as a whole are also particularly vulnerable to changes in precipitation, excessive frequency of storm surges and changes in the heat pattern through the impacts of floods .
The impacts of accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) through direct inundation, salt water intrusion, deterioration of ecological systems and associated socioeconomic consequences, have been addressed . Impacts resulting from changes in the precipitation pattern, shortages of fresh water resources, loss of already scarce vegetation cover, increased desertification and associated socio-economic impacts, have yet to be studied in depth .

SAFFRON

Mediterranean Sea
MATRUH.
OBAYIED
EMRY RAS KANAYES FALAK DORR AMAN TAREK TUT KANAYES M. NE MELEIHA SIDI RAHMAN LOUTS M. SE KARNA ZAHRA BARDY YASSER BED-15 S. DABAA BED-2 BED-3 SITRA 1&3 BED-1 SITRA 5 GPC ABU SENNAN W. TUT UM BARKA

ROSETTA

SIMIAN SCARAB

N. ABU QIR ABU QIR W. ABU QIR

SETTI HAPY N. BALTIM EL TEMSAH BALTIM WAKAR&KERSH DENISE NW. QARA SETH ABU MADI PORT FOUAD EL WASTANI

TAO

MANGO

EL HAMRA.
HOURS

ALEX.
BURG EL ARAB

W. ABU MADI KHILALA E. DELTA DISUQ

DARFEEL KAMOSE

THEKAH

Salam
S. UMBARKA KHALDA

QANTARRA

YADMA
RAZZAK

HAYAT SAFIR

N. ALAMEIN ALAMEIN E. RAZZAK AGHAR

TANTA

TAMAD TAMAY/TORBAY

ISMAILIA CAIRO SINAI

DARAG SUDR WD-33/1 W. QARUN MATARMA ASL WARDA BENI SUEF RAHMI N. OCTOBER RAS BADRAN QARUN N. BAHARIA WD-19

QASR

N. ABU GHARADIG BED-4

NE. ABU GHARADIG ABU GHARADIG

WD-33

OCTOBER
ABU RUDEIS SIDRI FEIRAN

BED-11

AMER EL HAMD BAKR W. GHARIB RAS GHARIB EL AYUN UM EL YUSR KAREEM EDFU KHEIR SHUKHEIR

WESTERN DESERT
kalabsha Bokis Amoun

BELAYIM M. BELAYIM L.
GS-300 JULY RAMADAN BADRI MORGAN NESSIEM WALI YOUNS GARA M. GH 376 SHOAB ALI HILAL BAHAR-NE ASHRAFI TAWILA

EASTERN DESERT

SAQARRA GS 365-373-327 AMAL E. ZEIT SIDKI GAZWARINA ZEIT BAY RAS EL ESH RAS EL BAHAR GEMSA GEMSA-SE GEISUM E. MALLAHA

FELEFEL

OIL FIELDS GAS FIELDS

RABEH WADI SAHL HURGHADA HAREED

EGYPTS OIL & GAS FIELDS

Project Example 2: Wind Program in Gulf of Suez Area

Proposed Area at Gulf of Suez

Proposed Area west Nile

Proposed Area east Nile

Proposed Area Kharga