Politics & Society
JAPANESE INTERNATIONAL
North Korea's Other Deterrent
By William Brooks
Since 2000, the government of South Korea has gone out of its way
to engage with its communist northern neighbor. The so-called “Sunshine
Policy” has indeed produced stronger trans-border business ties and created
generous aid packages bound for Pyongyang. The policy has also encour-
aged the South to tone down the content of radio programs it broadcasts
into the North – now featuring fewer shrill and bellicose denouncements
of communism. However, with the citizens of the North being continu-
ously denied basic human rights and Pyongyang’s recent demonstration
of nuclear capability, officials all over Asia, not least in Japan, feel that the
Sunshine Policy is failing.
Although a plethora of more advanced technology exists, radio broadcasts
still play a powerful role in modern politics in democratic countries. For
example, though the content varies greatly, talk radio is still hugely popular
among conservative and liberal listeners in America. In Britain, recent con-
troversy over an episode of the BBC’s Today program brought about the
Hutton Report and with it, an investigation into the British government’s
use of pre-war intelligence in Iraq. A more poignant example of the power
of radio broadcasting is the integral role played by Radio Free Europe, Ra-
dio Liberty and the BBC World Service in arousing the dissent that forced
the collapse of communism in Europe. So popular were these services that
many newly democratic governments at the time requested they stay on-air
even after their raison d’etre had long passed.
The proven success of radio-based campaigns is one reason Seoul con-
tinues giving aid and refrains from outwardly aggravating Kim Jong Il,
even in the face of nuclear proliferation and dreadful human rights abuses.
Unfortunately, South Korea’s actions are neither international altruism nor
simple appeasement. If the Northern population overthrows its rulers and
Korea is reunited, the South will have lost its principal military threat but
gained a huge economic burden. Although the German economy was badly
affected after its reunification in 1990, that economic struggle would pale
in comparison to the potential downturn taken by the South Korean econ-
omy. Neither, it would seem, do the citizens of the South feel particularly
charitable towards their poverty stricken cousins in the North. In a National
Assembly poll in 2005, 45% of voters said they would refuse to pay even
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one penny towards reunification. Moreover, 65% believe that the North
should receive less economic aid from the South. With youth unemploy-
ment rising and the wealth gap widening in the South, many want to see
public money go towards projects in which they can see realistic benefits.
According to CIA estimates, the North’s per capita GDP is approximately
$1,800 compared to $24,200 in the South. Due to an increasingly con-
stricting military budget, every other sector of industry, agriculture and
public service is chronically underfunded. As long as the major concern of
the Northern elite remains holding onto power, major reform is unlikely.
After all, they certainly don’t want to repeat the former Soviet Union’s sui-
cidal mistakes of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (transparency).
The United Nations’ sanctions against luxury items – one of the more novel
ways to undermine the regime – appear to be having the desired affect. Ac-
cording to Kim Sung Min, a northern defector who now runs Free North
Korea Radio in the South, Kim Jong Il would routinely give away hi-tech
prizes to winners of state sponsored sporting events, but that three months
ago, winners received live chickens instead.
Only thanks to hunger relief and world food programs can the population
in the North keep mass starvation at bay. Add to this an educational system
bent on political indoctrination and a complete rejection of the fundamen-
tals of basic market economics, and the result is a recipe for disaster. While
a survey by the Korean Institute of Criminal Justice Policy and Cheongju
University found that while only 0.5% of South Koreans had been targeted
and cheated of financial assets, this figure jumps to 21.5% for northern
defectors over the same period. It would seem the only people in the South
who may reap any financial benefits from unification are con artists.
Without a doubt, maintaining the status quo means war is a possibility for
the South. However, if the 38th parallel disappears, economic disintegra-
tion for Korea is definite. Many Korean families dream of being able to
freely visit relatives on the other side of the heavily fortified border and
while for them blood is thicker than water, for nations, cash flow is thicker
than both.
Japan Scope Vol.6 March 2007
RELATIONS
Japan – North Korea Relations
In a recent meeting in Beijing, North Korea proposed a firm date on which
it plans to return to the nuclear negotiating table after 13 months of self-im-
posed exile from the six-party talks. According to the Asahi Shimbun, six-
party framework countries Russia, America, Japan, China and South Korea
saw the gesture as a positive step toward North Korea scrapping its nuclear
development initiatives and rejoining the international community’s nuclear
non-proliferation agreement. However, the major sticking point of lifting
economic sanctions on North Korea remains a pivotal fulcrum on which
neither North Korea nor the international community seem willing to shift
their weight. At the time of printing, in a strange reversal of policy, the U.S.
surrendered concessions to Pyongyang in return for nuclear non-prolifera-
tion. The durability of this agreement remains to be seen.
Analysis: Throughout history, the U.N. has consistently sanctioned coun-
tries (see Iraq, Cuba, Iran, India and Pakistan for examples) and the world
has consistently witnessed their complete futility in deterring behavior or
compelling action. The international community likes them because they
mean no soldiers in harm’s way, North Korea likes them too because it
means they don’t really need to comply with anything. Willingness to ne-
gotiate on sanctions seems a peculiar change in policy for the stubborn
rogue state. Look for the talks to break down in the upcoming second
round – the round concerned specifically with lifting sanctions.
Japan – China Relations
According to an article on CCTV.com, China Central Television, the na-
tion’s largest and most popular television network, plans to air a 20-part
series called Yangsong (Eyes on Japan), which will focus on Japanese
lifestyle, history, economics and politics. According to the website, Japa-
nese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife Akie, former Japanese Prime
Minister Tomiichi Murayama, famous author Junichi Watanabe and actor
Ken Takakura will be interviewed for the inaugural season. As a lead-up
to production, China has plans to send its largest-ever contingent of jour-
nalists to Japan for 20 days of interviews, fact-finding and prescreening.
Keiji Ide, a minister in the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, “hopes the project
will contribute to Japan’s efforts to boost China-Japan ties.”
Analysis: “An important breakthrough.” “A realignment of thinking.” “A
new era in relations.” Headlines like these permeate current media stories
about the future of Japan-China relations. Despite the mutual admiration
society growing between the Asian giants, both seem to be ignoring the
proverbial elephant in the room: Japan’s fundamental foreign policy is
structured around building democracy and respecting human rights, Chi-
na’s is decidedly not. Besides, Prime Minister Abe still has yet to go on
record about a certain controversial shrine in Tokyo.
Japan Scope Vol.6 March 2007
International Relations
Japan – Nepal Relations
In the first significant move since being upgraded to a legitimate ministry,
the Defense Ministry has approved a plan to deploy ten SDF personnel to a
collaborative U.N. military observer mission. According to a recent article
in the Japan Times, the Defense Ministry’s new mandate is to focus on
“international cooperation efforts abroad.” The move comes in the wake of
Prime minister Abe’s commitment to sending Japanese Defense Ministry
personnel into conflict areas as long as the forces are used only to bol-
ster international peace and stability. In Nepal, the main task of the U.N.
military observer group will be to monitor the implementation of the most
recent ceasefire between Maoist rebels and the Nepalese government, but
the Defense Ministry will be specifically tasked with arms management
and information gathering between the two sides.
Analysis: Prime Minister Abe’s got himself a shiny new toy and now he’s
got parliament’s permission to go out and play with it. Nepal is still consid-
ered a hot zone and Abe’s urgency at having Defense Ministry personnel
involved there is probably a precursor for things to come. Abe has always
been an outspoken advocate for increasing the role of Japan’s military
so look for Defense Ministry personnel being deployed to conflict areas
throughout the world (Afghanistan & Sudan in the immediately future),
and don’t be surprised when reports start showing that situations com-
pelled Japanese troops to become more than just “observers.”
Japan – Thailand Relations
Every month, the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) issues a
report on business performance in ASEAN countries Thailand, Malaysia,
Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines, from the perspective of Japa-
nese investors. The report – based on a ratio of positive to negative factors
called a diffusion index (DI) – is designed to quantify the performance of
the respective economy and monitor business trends ripe for investment.
According to a recent article in the Bangkok Post, JETRO Bangkok presi-
dent Yoichi Kato cites political instability, baht appreciation and rising oil,
interest and inflation rates as justifications for Thailand’s receiving the
lowest grade in each of the last three months. Japanese parent companies
might even be inclined to relocate offshore investments from Thailand, es-
pecially if the Thai baht continues to drop against the dollar. The article is
quick to point out however, “the index is unlikely to cause Japanese deci-
sion-makers to immediately withdraw their investments in Thailand since
they are part of the business plans drawn two or three years earlier.”
Analysis: Since the beginning of the Koizumi administration, Japan has
invested billions of yen in the development of basic infrastructure in Thai-
land, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. Although foreign aid will continue,
look for already-conservative JETRO investments to decrease unless Thai-
land’s lucrative tourist industry can rebound from recent political unrest.
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