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2013-4-22 Golden Agri Morning Note
2013-4-22 Golden Agri Morning Note
Fundamental Call Wilmar International Ltd - Bird flu concerns likely less than initially feared (Nicholas Ong) Recommendation: Accumulate Previous close: S$3.34 Fair value: S$3.70 Impact from Chinas bird flu likely limited Vertically integrated model resilient to low CPO prices Upgrade to Accumulate with new TP of S$3.70
22 April 2013
Golden Agri-Resources Ltd - Cutting 2013E CPO estimate (Nicholas Ong) Recommendation: Neutral Previous close: S$0.525 Fair value: S$0.55 Lowering FY13E CPO estimate to US$820/MT Time needed for downstream growth Downgrade to Neutral from Accumulate
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- SET: +1.03% to 1545.5 - KLCI: +0.00% to 1706.3 - Hang Seng: +2.33% to 22013.6 - ASX200: +0.65% to 3314 - S&P500: +0.88% to 1555.3
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4% 2%
0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.7%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.3%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-1.7%
Source: Bloomberg
Wilmar
Capitaland
Jardine C&C
SIA
UOB
SGX
SIA Eng.
Jardine Stra.
Noble Group
DBS
Jardine Mat.
ST Eng.
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Singtel
GLP
F&N
CDL
Capitamall Trust
Sembcorp Mar.
OCBC
Golden Agri-R.
Starhub
Genting SP
ComfortDelGro
Olam
SPH
Sembcorp Ind.
HK Land
Thai Beverage
Company Highlights Triyards Holdings Limited announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, SAV Land Pty Ltd, has entered into a conditional contract of sale dated 18 April 2013 with Henderson Supply Base Pty Ltd , pursuant to which the Seller has agreed to sell and SAV Land has agreed to purchase a property in Australia known as Lot 5 Clarence Beach Road, Henderson Western Australia 6166. (Closing price: S$ 0.760, 0.654%) Sembcorp Industries announced that it will be developing a new energy-from-waste facility in Teesside, the UK, which will be the Groups first energy-from-waste facility outside Singapore. The new energy-from-waste facility will be capable of producing up to 49 megawatts of gross power or 190 tonnes per hour of steam, using municipal and commercial waste. The facility will be located at Wilton International, a 770-hectare industrial site which Sembcorp owns, operates and manages in Teesside. (Closing price: S$ 4.900, -1.606%) AsiaMedic Limited, a premier healthcare provider in Asia, announced it has signed an teleradiology service agreement with Nyein Hospital and City Hospital, both located in Mandalay, Myanmar. Teleradiology involves the transmission of radiological patient images, such as Xrays, CTs, and MRIs, from one location to another for the purposes of sharing studies with other radiologists and physicians. AsiaMedic will provide the hardware, software and technical support to facilitate a connectivity platform between the Group and the hospitals, as well as the professional interpretation of radiological images submitted by their radiographers. Started in 2005, City Hospital operates 130 beds with plans to expand to 300 beds, while Nyein Hospital, established in 1999, operates 180 beds. AsiaMedic will work closely with both hospitals as they invest in building up their diagnostic capabilities and subsequent new facilities. For the current phase, the cost of setting up the connectivity platform will be borne by the client. (Closing price: S$ 0.096, -)
Source: SGX Masnet, The Business Times
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+0.10%
+0.02%
+0.07%
-0.07%
0.73%
Mar-13
Mar-13 Mar-13 Feb-13
Mar-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
14,547.51 3,294.05
Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12
13,316.48
Feb-13
Feb-13
283.19
1.705
Jan-13
Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12
Jan-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Dec-12
Nov-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Oct-12
Sep-12 Aug-12
Jul-12 Jun-12
Sep-12
ThomReuters/JefferiesCRB
Aug-12
US Treasury 10yr Yield
Aug-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12
Jul-12
Jul-12
Jun-12 May-12
Jun-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
May-12
May-12
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
3,500
3,300
3,100
2,900
2,700
340
320
300
280
260
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
DJI
2,500
Apr-12
Apr-12
Apr-12
Apr-12
+0.05%
+0.05%
+0.15%
+1.43%
Mar-13 Feb-13
Mar-13 Feb-13
Mar-13 Feb-13
Mar-13
+2.33%
Mar-13
Feb-13
Feb-13
82.75
98.95
537.41
Jan-13
22,013.57
1,403.85
Jan-13
Dec-12
Dec-12
Nov-12
Nov-12
Oct-12 Sep-12
Oct-12 Sep-12
Oct-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
Aug-12 Jul-12
Aug-12 Jul-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jul-12 Jun-12
Jun-12
Dollar Index
Jun-12
Gold (US$/Oz)
May-12 Apr-12
May-12 Apr-12
May-12
May-12
May-12
24,000
23,000
22,000
21,000
20,000
19,000
1,900
1,600
1,300
1,000
130
120
110
100
86
84
82
80
78
18,000
Apr-12
Apr-12
Apr-12
Source: Bloomberg
Jun-12
Jun-12
90
80
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Com m odities & Supply Chain Managers GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD Consum er Goods COURTS ASIA LTD GENTING SINGAPORE PLC COMBINE WILL INTERNATIONAL H CORDLIFE GROUP LTD Banking & Finance DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD Property (Developers) CAPITALAND LTD CAPITAMALLS ASIA LTD HO BEE INVESTMENT LTD KEPPEL LAND LTD OVERSEAS UNION ENTERPRISE GLOBAL LOGISTIC PROPERTIES L GLOBAL PREMIUM HOTELS LTD STAMFORD LAND CORP LTD SINGHAIYI GROUP LTD # Property (REITS) CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE SABANA SHARIAH COMP IND REIT Industrials (Capital Goods) SATS LTD SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING KEPPEL CORP LTD SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD SEMBCORP MARINE LTD HU AN CABLE HOLDINGS LTD SUNPOWER GROUP LTD PAN-UNITED CORP LTD BOUSTEAD SINGAPORE LTD Industrials (Transportation) SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDINGS LTD NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD SMRT CORP LTD COMFORTDELGRO CORP LTD HENGYANG PETROCHEMICAL LOGIS Technology & Com m unications SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD STARHUB LTD Nicholas Ong Nicholas Ong Ken Ang Ken Ang Chan Wai Chee Derrick Heng Ken Ang Ken Ang Ken Ang Ken Ang Bryan Go Bryan Go Bryan Go Bryan Go Bryan Go Roy Chen Chan Wai Chee Chan Wai Chee Chan Wai Chee Change of Analyst Change of Analyst Change of Analyst Derrick Heng Derrick Heng Derrick Heng Nicholas Ong Change of Analyst Nicholas Ong Chan Wai Chee Chan Wai Chee Joshua Tan Joshua Tan Derrick Heng Derrick Heng Derrick Heng Derrick Heng Derrick Heng Chan Wai Chee Ken Ang Ken Ang 22-Apr-13 Neutral 22-Apr-13 Accumulate 25-Mar-13 Buy 22-Feb-13 Neutral 20-Dec-12 Buy 8-Apr-13 Buy 7-Feb-13 Accumulate 18-Feb-13 Reduce 28-Feb-13 Accumulate 17-Apr-13 Accumulate 22-Feb-13 Accumulate 8-Feb-13 Neutral 1-Mar-13 Buy 19-Apr-13 Neutral 1-Apr-13 Accumulate 7-Feb-13 Neutral 9-Nov-12 Buy 20-Dec-12 Buy 16-Oct-12 Buy
# adjust for pref shares conversion to ord shares. Project valuation remains constant. Conversion $ and interest added to valuation.
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ST Technology
-1 .0%
ST China
-3.2%
ST Financials
5.9%
ST Real Estate
2.6%
ST Utilites
7.6%
ST Re Invest Trust
8.2%
ST Telecommunicate
7.5%
STI 2.3%
ST Basic Materials
ST Consumer Service
1 .2%
-8.5%
ST Healthcare
2.6%
ST Industrials
ST Consumer Goods
-8.3%
2.1 %
Source: Bloomberg
Top Gainers (%) ABTERRA LTD HARTAWAN HOLDINGS LTD TOP GLOBAL LTD MEDI-FLEX LTD ARMARDA GROUP LTD Top Losers (%) SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LTD HOR KEW CORP LTD INNOPAC HOLDINGS LTD IHH HEALTHCARE BHD YAMADA GREEN RESOURCES LTD Source: Bloomberg Turnover ('mn shares) Turnover (S$'mn) UP DOWN UNCHANGED
ST All Share
3.1%
Last 0.730 0.156 0.011 0.120 0.025 Last 0.103 0.068 0.205 1.420 0.250
% Chg 15.9 10.6 10.0 9.1 8.7 % Chg -13.4 -5.6 -4.7 -4.1 -3.8
STI
ST Mid Cap 2.3% ST Fledgling 4.5%
5.8%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: SGX
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FTSE 100 0.69% 6,286.59 DOW 0.07% 14,547.51 S&P 500 0.88% 1,555.25
Source: Bloomberg
ETF Perform ance ETF CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 DB X-TRACKERS CSI300 UCITS DB X-TRACKERS FTSE VIETNAM DB X-TRACKERS MSCI INDONESIA DB X-TRACKERS MSCI TAIWAN DB X-TRACKERS MSCI WORLD TRN DB X-TRACKERS S&P 500 INV DA DB X-TRACKERS CNX NIFTY UCIT ISHARES MSCI INDIA INDEX ETF LYXOR ETF CHINA ENTERPRISE LYXOR ETF HANG SENG INDEX 10 LYXOR ETF MSCI AC ASIA EX JP LYXOR ETF MSCI INDIA LYXOR ETF MSCI TAIWAN NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF SPDR GOLD TRUST SPDR STRAITS TIMES INDEX ETF UNITED SSE 50 CHINA ETF Source: Bloomberg % Change +0.35 +2.59 +0.34 +1.04 +0.98 -0.28 +0.69 +2.09 +1.29 +2.22 +1.47 -1.46 +1.47 +2.91 +0.60 +1.97 -0.30 +2.38 Change +0.04 +0.20 +0.08 +0.18 +0.18 -0.01 +0.22 +2.23 +0.08 +0.30 +0.04 -0.07 +0.20 +0.03 +0.02 +2.64 -0.01 +0.04 Last 11.48 7.92 23.61 17.42 18.55 3.61 31.94 109.16 6.29 13.80 2.76 4.72 13.85 0.99 3.36 136.96 3.32 1.72
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Type 3rd Interim Final Special Cash Special Cash Final Final Regular Cash Final Special Cash Final Regular Cash Final
Net Am ount 0.0400 0.2700 0.0200 0.0980 0.2520 0.1700 0.1500 0.0300 0.0500 0.0059 0.0163 0.0350
Currency SGD SGD SGD SGD THB SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD
Frequency Quarter Semi-Anl Semi-Anl Semi-Anl Semi-Anl Semi-Anl Annual Semi-Anl Annual Semi-Anl Semi-Anl Semi-Anl
Record Date 4/24/2013 4/26/2013 4/29/2013 4/30/2013 5/2/2013 5/2/2013 5/2/2013 5/2/2013 5/2/2013 5/2/2013 5/6/2013 5/7/2013
Payout Date 5/2/2013 5/8/2013 5/13/2013 5/17/2013 5/22/2013 5/17/2013 5/14/2013 5/14/2013 5/20/2013 5/14/2013 5/20/2013 5/15/2013
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Calendar Earning Announcement Singapore Name First Ship Lease Trust Mapletree Commercial Trust Rickmers Maritime Sysma Holdings Ltd First Real Estate Investment Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Singapore Reinsurance Corp Ltd BH Global Marine Ltd Cache Logistics Trust Cheung Woh Technologies Ltd China Environment Ltd QAF Ltd Sino-Excel Energy Ltd STATS ChipPAC Ltd Action Asia Ltd Baker Technology Ltd CapitaMalls Asia Ltd Great Eastern Holdings Ltd Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd PCA Technology Ltd Samudera Shipping Line Ltd Sheng Siong Group Ltd Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust Technics Oil & Gas Ltd Transit-Mixed Concrete Ltd Advanced Integrated Manufacturing Corp Ltd Amaru Inc Ascendas India Trust Ascott Residence Trust CapitaLand Ltd CDL Hospitality Trusts China Aviation Oil Singapore Corp Ltd China Merchants Holdings Pacific Ltd Duty Free International Ltd Eucon Holding Ltd Far East Orchard Ltd HL Global Enterprises Ltd Hong Leong Finance Ltd Hwa Hong Corp Ltd Jackspeed Corp Ltd Jiutian Chemical Group Ltd Mun Siong Engineering Ltd Nico Steel Holdings Ltd Serial System Ltd Shanghai Asia Holdings Ltd Singapore Land Ltd Singapore Post Ltd SP Corp Ltd Starhill Global REIT Texchem-Pack Holdings Singapore Ltd Top Global Ltd United Industrial Corp Ltd Yeo Hiap Seng Ltd Alternative Energy Ltd Ascendas Hospitality Trust Source: Bloomberg Expected Report Date April 22, 2013 April 22, 2013 April 22, 2013 April 22, 2013 April 23, 2013 April 23, 2013 April 23, 2013 April 24, 2013 April 24, 2013 April 24, 2013 April 24, 2013 April 24, 2013 April 24, 2013 April 24, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 25, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 26, 2013 April 29, 2013 April 29, 2013
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Econom ic Announcem ent US Date Statistic 4/22/2013 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 4/22/2013 Existing Home Sales 4/22/2013 Existing Home Sales MoM 4/23/2013 Markit US PMI Preliminary 4/23/2013 House Price Index MoM 4/23/2013 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 4/23/2013 New Home Sales 4/23/2013 New Home Sales MoM 4/24/2013 MBA Mortgage Applications 4/24/2013 Durable Goods Orders 4/24/2013 Durables Ex Transportation 4/24/2013 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 4/24/2013 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 4/25/2013 Initial Jobless Claims 4/25/2013 Continuing Claims Source: Bloomberg For Mar Mar Mar Apr Feb Apr Mar Mar 19-Apr Mar Mar Mar Mar 20-Apr 13-Apr Survey -5.00M 0.40% 54.5 0.70% -419K 1.90% --2.90% 0.70% 0.30% -351K -Prior 0.44 4.98M 0.80% -0.60% 3 411K -4.60% 4.80% 5.70% -0.50% -2.70% 1.90% 352K 3068K Singapore Date Statistic 4/23/2013 CPI (MOM) - NSA 4/23/2013 CPI (YoY) 4/24/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 4/24/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 4/24/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 4/26/2013 Industrial Production MoM SA 4/26/2013 Industrial Production YoY 4/29/2013 Unemployment Rate (sa) 4/30/2013 M1 Money Supply (YoY) 4/30/2013 M2 Money Supply (YoY) 4/30/2013 Credit Card Bad Debts 4/30/2013 Credit Card Billings 4/30/2013 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) 5/2/2013 Electronics Sector Index 5/2/2013 Purchasing Managers Index Source: Bloomberg For Mar Mar 24-Apr 24-Apr 24-Apr Mar Mar 1Q P Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Survey ---------------Prior 1.00% 4.90% 61029 67010 66989 -0.70% -16.60% 1.80% 14.00% 9.70% 19.3M 2953.2M 19.60% 51.9 50.6
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Morning Note 22 April 2013 Important Information This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd., 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00, Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101 (Registration Number: 198803136N), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (Phillip Securities Research). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this document by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately. Phillip Securities Research shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. 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Morning Note 22 April 2013 from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this publication. Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment. To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold a interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this publication. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this material, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this material. The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products (FAA-N01) do not apply in respect of this publication. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. Please contact Phillip Securities Research at [65 65311240] in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. This report is only for the purpose of distribution in Singapore.
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Chan Wai Chee CEO, Research Special Opportunities +65 6531 1231 yebo@phillip.com.sg Magdalene Choong, CFA Investment Analyst Regional Gaming +65 6531 1791 magdalenechoongss@phillip.com.sg Ken Ang Investment Analyst Financials, Telecoms +65 6531 1793 kenangwy@phillip.com.sg Nicholas Ong Investment Analyst Commodities, Offshore & Marine +65 6531 5440 nicholasonghg@phillip.com.sg
Joshua Tan Head of Research Global Macro, Asset Strategy +65 6531 1249 joshuatan@phillip.com.sg Go Choon Koay, Bryan Investment Analyst Property +65 6531 1792 gock@phillip.com.sg Ng Weiwen Macro Analyst Global Macro, Asset Strategy +65 6531 1735 ngww@phillip.com.sg Research Assistant General Enquiries +65 6531 1240 (Phone) research@phillip.com.sg
Derrick Heng Deputy Head of Research SG Equity Strategist & Transport +65 6531 1221 derrickhengch@phillip.com.sg Travis Seah Investment Analyst REITs +65 6531 1229 travisseahhk@phillip.com.sg Roy Chen Macro Analyst Global Macro, Asset Strategy +65 6531 1535 roychencz@phillip.com.sg
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