This study has explained the impact of inflation on GDP in Pakistan. It is a longitudinal study from the period 1983-2010 and is a part of a directed course.
This study has explained the impact of inflation on GDP in Pakistan. It is a longitudinal study from the period 1983-2010 and is a part of a directed course.
This study has explained the impact of inflation on GDP in Pakistan. It is a longitudinal study from the period 1983-2010 and is a part of a directed course.
This study has explained the impact of inflation on GDP in Pakistan. It is a longitudinal study from the period 1983-2010 and is a part of a directed course.
MUHAMMAD IBRAHIM KHAN MBA Student IQRA University Email: Ibrahimkhan8767@gmail.com
SECOND AUTHOR
ORANGZAIB ANWAR MBA Student IQRA University Email: orangzaib.anwar@iunc.edu.pk
THIRD AUTHOR
SYED FAUZAN ALI MBA Student IQRA University Email: saiyedfauzan@live.com
FOURTH AUTHOR
ABDULLAH BIN JAWAID MBA Student IQRA University
FIFTH AUTHOR
AURANGZAIB ADIL MBA Student IQRA University
SIXTH AUTHOR
SAJJAD ALI MBA Student IQRA University
SEVENTH AUTHOR
SYED ZAFAR AHMAD MBA Student IQRA University
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Impact of Inflation on GDP
Abstract This study has explained the impact of inflation on GDP in Pakistan. It is a longitudinal study from the period 1983-2010. The data has been collected from various economic surveys. The study supports the fact that inflation is significantly influential on GDP with a strong positive correlation. The value of Pearson Correlation is found to be 0.97 which shows that there is strong positive relation and sig value 0.00 shows that there is a relation between independent variable (inflation) and dependent variable (GDP) at confidence level of 95%. It is, therefore concluded that inflation possess a role which is influential on GDP in Pakistan. Keywords: Inflation and GDP
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Impact of Inflation on GDP
INTRODUCTION: We have studied the impact of inflation on GDP in Pakistan. GDP is the sum of the value of all the products produced in a country during fiscal year. It is found one of the indicators of the production and growth rate of the economy and play a strategic role in development, employment and the balance of payment (Volker, 2005). According to Catao and Terrones (2003) inflation is the continuous rise in the price with the passage of time and declination in the value of money. Historically, Inflation rate in Pakistan is reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics , the average inflation rate is 8.04 percent, reaching the ultimate height of 37.81 percent in December of 1973 and a record low of -10.32 percent in February of 1959.
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Impact of Inflation on GDP
Objectives of the Study
-To examine the role of inflation in the economy of Pakistan - To examine the role of GDP in the economy of Pakistan - To examine the influencing role of inflation in relationship to GDP
Research question:
Is there any impact of inflation on GDP?
Problem statement:
Whenever GDP has been low, inflation has been high, and vice versa Research model:
In this research paper we have two variables; inflation (independent) variable where as GDP (dependent) variable. We want to study the impact of inflation of GDP. Sampling technique: We adopted simple convenience random sampling. Sample size: Our sample is 28 years of time series annual data.
Inflation
GDP
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Impact of Inflation on GDP
Findings: Trend analysis:
Pakistans GDP is overall increasing, but there is also a slight fluctuation present due to the economic uncertainties in the country.
Time G D P 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 16000 12000 8000 4000 0 AccuracyMeasures MAPE 76 MAD 1316 MSD 2812746 Variable Actual Fits Trend Analysis Plot for GDP LinearTrendModel GDP= -2109.20 + 416.529*t
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Impact of Inflation on GDP
Pakistan inflation is an increasing trend at start but there is a slight fluctuation present during the period of 15 to 27 years but overall there is an increasing trend in inflation time to time.
Correlation table Correlations: inflation and GDP
Inflation P-value
GDP 0.97 0.00
Cell Contents: Pearson correlation
Hence the value of Pearson correlation is found to be 0.97 which indicates that there is a strong relation between inflation and GDP and P-value is less than 0.05 hence it indicates that inflation has a significant impact on GDP.
Time i n f l a t i o n 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 250 200 150 100 50 0 AccuracyMeasures MAPE 17.496 MAD 13.473 MSD 305.564 Variable Actual Fits Trend Analysis Plot for inflation LinearTrendModel Inflation= -5.28516 + 7.51634*t
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Impact of Inflation on GDP
Regression Regression Analysis: GDP versus inflation
The regression equation is
GDP = - 2107 + 58.2 inflation
Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant -2106.5 293.2 -7.18 0.000 Inflation 58.215 2.415 24.11 0.000
S = 807.229 R-Sq = 95.7% R-Sq(adj) = 95.6%
S = 935.974 R-Sq = 96.0% R-Sq(adj) = 95.8%
The regression equation indicates that one unit of change in inflation results into a 58.2 unit of change in GDP. Whereas R square indicates that there is a 95.7% of variance in GDP which may be a result of inflation.
Forecasting GDP by Moving Average method for 2011
time G D P 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Moving Average Length 3 Accuracy Measures MAPE 12 MAD 629 MSD 1015880 Variable Forecasts 95.0% PI Actual Fits Moving Average Plot for GDP
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Impact of Inflation on GDP We have forecasted GDP for 2011 which is found to be Rs 18062.9 billion. The data available was from 1983 to 2010. Forecasting inflation by Moving Average method for 2011
We have forecasted inflation for 2011 which is found to be 294.54%. The data available was from 1983 to 2010.
Time i n f l a t i o n 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 MovingAverage Length 1 AccuracyMeasures MAPE 7.769 MAD 9.449 MSD 170.127 Variable Forecasts 95.0% PI Actual Fits Moving Average Plot for inflation Moving Average Length 3
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Impact of Inflation on GDP Conclusion The conclusive outcome of this paper is that inflation is found a significant influential for GDP with strong positive correlation. The value of Pearson Correlation is found to be 0.97 which shows that there is a strong positive relation and sig value of 0.00 shows that there is a relation between independent variable (inflation) and dependent variable (GDP). It is, therefore concluded that inflation possess a role which is influential for GDP. The result of the previous studies has also proved that inflation has a significant impact on GDP. Recommendations Pakistan inflation rates are highly deviating year wise due to uncertain economic setups. Pakistan is in a weak economic condition and highly volatile that needs to be realized for the establishment of valid economic policy for the control of inflation.
Uncertainties exist in every economy, but Pakistans economy faces these contingencies and economic problems more often than others. Pakistan is facing hyperinflation in this kind of situation financial precautionary initiatives are required to be taken into consideration to manage the inflation for negative outcomes.
Monetary and fiscal policy is guiding the financial behavior in terms of flow of money from one unit to another unit. The flow of money in different sectors of economies needs to be properly managed and examined for valid economic decision and measures.
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Impact of Inflation on GDP Too much printing of money is causing an increase in inflation and our currency is being de- valued thus the government should put an end to this non-stop printing. Limitations Our study comprised of only inflation and GDP, we did not consider the impact of interest rate which is also an important factor. Secondly this research is based only on 28 years of annual data of inflation and unemployment rate out of 66 years.