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Definition of 'Accelerator Theory'
Definition of 'Accelerator Theory'
An economic theory that suggests that as demand or income increases in an economy, so does the investment made by firms. Furthermore, accelerator theory suggests that when demand levels result in an excess in demand, firms have two choices of how to meet demand.
The accelerator theory proposes that most companies choose to increase production thus increase their profits. The theory further explains how this growth attracts more investors, which accelerates growth.
decision), but its decision on how fast to build it, how much to spend each month building it, etc. -- effectively, the "investment" decision -- is a separate consideration. Naturally, the capital decision influences the investment decision: a firm which has $10 billion of capital and decides that it needs $15 billion of capital, therefore requires investment of $5 billion. But if this adjustment can be done "instantly", then there is really no actual investment decision to speak of. We just change the capital stock automatically. The capital decision governs everything. However, if for some reason, instant adjustment is not possible, then the investment story begins to matter. How do we distribute this $5 billion adjustment? Do we invest in an even flow over time, e.g. $1 billion this week, another $1 billion next week, and so on? Or do we invest in descending increments, e.g. invest $1 billion this week, $500 million next week, $300 million the week after that, etc. and approach the $5 billion mark asymptotically? Or should we invest in ascending increments, e.g. $10 million this week, $100 million next week, etc.? Delivery costs, changing prices of suppliers, fluctuating interest rates and financing costs, and other such considerations, make some adjustment processes more desirable than others. These different patterns of "approaching" the desired $5 billion adjustment in capital stock and the considerations that enter into determining which adjustment pattern to follow is what lies at the heart of the Hayekian approach to investment theory. The Hayekian approach is shown heuristically in Figure 1, where we start at capital stock K0 and then, at t*, we suddenly change our desired capital stock from K0 to K*. Figure 1 depicts four alternative investment paths from K0 towards K*. Path I represents "instant" adjustment type of investment (i.e. all investment happens at once at t* and no more investment afterwards). Path I represents an "even flow" adjustment path, with investment happening at a steady rate after t* until K* is reached. Path I is the asymptotic investment path (gradually declining investment), while path I depicts a gradually increasing investment path. All paths, except for the first instant one, imply that "investment" flows will be happening during the periods that follow t*. Properly speaking, then, investment theory in the Hayekian perspective is concerned with analyzing and comparing paths such as I , I and I .
Figure 1 - Adjustment Paths towards K* The "Keynesian" approach places far less emphasis on the "adjustment" nature of investment. Instead, they have a more "behavioral" take on the investment decision. Namely, the Keynesian approach argues that investment is simply what capitalists "do". Every period, workers consume and capitalists "invest" as a matter of course. This leads Keynesians to underplay the capital stock decision. This does not mean that Keynesians ignore the fact that investment is defined as a change in capital stock. Rather, they believe that the main decision is the investment decision; the capital stock just "follows" from the investment patterns rather than being an important thing that needs to be "optimally" decided upon beforehand. Thus, when businesses make investment decisions, they do not have an "optimal capital stock" in the back of their mind. They are more concerned as to what is the optimal amount of investment for some particular period. For Keynesians, then, optimal investment not about "optimal adjustment" but rather about "optimal behavior".
In economics, the "Keynesian" perspective has a longer history than the "Hayekian" one precisely because so many of the early economists, from Turgot (1766) onwards, concentrated on circulating capital rather than fixed capital. With circulating capital, the question of the "optimal capital stock" cannot come up; there is only the "optimal investment" decision (i.e. capital per period). The first theory of investment we consider here, Irving Fisher's (1930) theory, follows these lines. Fisher's theory was originally conceived as a theory of capital, but as he assumes all capital is circulating, then it is just as proper to conceive of it as a theory of investment. John Maynard Keynes (1936) followed suit. Or, rather, in his theory, Keynes made much of the investment decision but was quiet about the underlying fixed capital. As such,Keynesian macroeconomics swept the issue of the changing capital stocks under the rug -- where it stayed until it was dug up by growth theorists many years later. Modern Neo-Keynesian and Post Keynesian theorists have attempted to insert capital stocks into Keynesian theory in order to obtain a "more complete" macroeconomic theory, but have generally adhered to Keynes's strategy of placing the investment decision as the centrepiece and subordinating capital stock considerations to it. Fixed capital, and thus the optimal capital stock, was an important feature in the work of John Bates Clark (1899), Frank Ramsey (1928) and Frank H. Knight (1936, 1946). Or, propertly speaking, these theorists embraced the idea of a "permanent fund" of capital in the economy, and thus were naturally led to ask questions about its optimal "size". This was effectively what Neoclassical theorists such as Dale W. Jorgenson (1963) picked up in their theories. However, while elaborate on the determination of the optimal capital stock, these theories tended to skimp on the determination of the adjustment towards it, i.e. on investment. The great intermediate figure was Friedrich A. von Hayek (1941), who juggled with the concepts of fixed and circulating capital by conceiving of an optimal stock of fixed capital and of investment as the optimal adjustment towards it (an idea that Knut Wicksell (1898, 1901) had also toyed with). This was the notion picked up in later years by Abba Lerner (1944, 1953), Friedrich Lutz and Vera Lutz (1951), Trygve Haavelmo (1960) and the marginal adjustment cost theorists (Eisner and Strotz, Lucas, Treadway, Gould, etc.) The modern Neoclassical theory of investment stems largely from this tradition. In what follows, we shall go through a few points in each of these types of theories. We should point out now that our emphasis in on theories of the investment decision, in its more "production"-theoretic sense rather than a macroeconomic one. We are not concerned here with the theory of interest rates, in which investment theory plays an important role, as that would entangle us in the details of the monetary
theories of Wicksell, Robertson, Ohlin, Hayek, Keynes and others. We treat this elsewhere. There is no comprehensive text on investment theory. The following treatises, however, contain good surveys of substantial areas of investment theory: Friedrich Lutz and Vera Lutz(1951), Trygve Haavelmo (1960), Jack Hirschleifer (1970), Andrew Abel (1979) and Mark Precious (1987). Also recommended is the collection edited by Paul Davidson (1993).