MATH 203 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS I

Midterm examination October 14, 2011

Version A

Student Name:

Student Number:

Instructions: 1. There are 5 pages to this exam, including this title page. 2. Answer all questions directly on the test (use back for rough calculations only). 3. The total number of marks for the exam is 50.

Material permitted: 1. One 8.5 11 sheet of hand-written personal notes 2. Pocket calculators 3. Language dictionaries

Question 1 [6 points] (a) List three classical measures of central tendency.

(b) List three classical measures of dispersion.

Question 2 [12 points] Fill out the following table using the rules of probability. No details are required.

Pr(A) 0.7

Pr(B ) 0.6

Pr(A B ) 0.9

Pr(A B )

Pr(A B c ) Pr(B Ac )

0.1 0.8 0.6 1 0 0.2

0.3

0.2

0.1

Question 3 [14 points] The following boxplots show the petal length (in centimetres) for 50 specimens from each of three species of iris collected in the Gasp e peninsula (Fisher, Ann. Eugenics, 1936). The species are Iris setosa, Iris versicolor, and Iris virginica.
7 1 2 3 4 5 6

setosa

versicolor

virginica

(a) Which species has the smallest median? (b) Which species has the largest interquartile range? (c) Which species displays the greatest asymmetry? (d) Which species has/have outliers? (e) Give an estimate of the median for Iris versicolor. (f) Give an estimate of the interquartile range for Iris virginica. (g) Could you distinguish these three species with certainty on the basis of petal length? Justify your answer.

Question 4 [9 points] In a certain country, the probability that a woman reaches the age of 70 is 0.7 and the probability that a woman lives to be 80 is 0.5. (a) If a woman from that country is 70 years old, what is the conditional probability she will survive to 80 years?

(b) Suppose that three sisters born in that country live completely independent lives. What is the probability that they will all be alive at the age of 70?

(c) If the three sisters are all alive at the age of 70, what is the probability that they will all be alive at the age of 80?

Question 5 [9 points] In Canada, 1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. Given the current technology, 80% of women with breast cancer will have positive mammographies. However, 10% of women without breast cancer will also have positive mammographies. (a) If 1000 women in this age group undergo a routine screening, how many of them may be expected to have breast cancer?

(b) If 1000 women in this age group undergo a routine screening, how many of them may be expected to have a positive mammography?

(c) If 1000 women in this age group undergo a routine screening, what fraction of women with positive mammographies may be expected to have breast cancer?