Mozal Finance EXCEL Group 15dec2013

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Exhibit1A

Exhibit 1A

Gencor and Alusaf Income Statements on June 30, 1996 (US$ millions)

Turnover
Subsidiary turnover
Cost of sales
Other operating cost
Operating Income
Investment income
Net finance cost
Other costs/income
Profit before taxation
Taxation
Profit after taxation

Gencor Group

Alusaf Group

$3,342.3
(1,182.1)
(1,653.8)
(53.0)
453.3

$657.3
0.0
(551.3)
0.0
106.0

217.6
(26.5)
41.9
686.3

5.8
(47.1)
0.0
64.7

(121.4)
564.9

(23.0)
41.7

Source: Company Annual Reports


Note: Assumes 3.996 South African Rand equal $1.00 U.S.

Page 1

Exhibit1B

Exhibit 1B

Gencor and Alusaf Balance Sheets on June 30, 1996 ($US millions)
Gencor Group

Alusaf Group

$2,752.6
610.3
679.5
293.1
130.5
4,466.0

$872.9
0.0
563.7
0
187.0
1,623.6

1,820.2
1,834.8
300.1

1,455.1
52.6
0.0

433.2
578.8
0.0
852.4
1,864.4
5,819.5

184.1
145.1
63.7
0.0
392.9
1,900.7

Current liabilities
Loans and payables
Dividends payable
Total current liabilities

1,287.6
65.9
1,353.5

262.6
14.4
277.1

Total employment

4,466.0

1,623.6

Capital Employed
Shareholders interest
Outside interests
Long-term loans
Long-term provisions
Deferred taxation
Total capital
Employment of Capital
Fixed assets
Investments
Other non-current assets
Current assets
Trading stock
Amounts receivable
Other
Cash resources
Total current assets
Total assets

Source: Company Annual Reports


Note: Assumes 3.996 South African Rand equal $1.00 U.S.

Page 2

Exhibit4

Exhibit 4

Sources and Uses of Cash (US$ millions)


Uses of Cash

Sources of Cash

Total direct costs

$772

Total indirect costs


Capital costs
Contingency
Price escalation
Total
Start-up costs
Initial working capital
Pre-completion interest
Total
Total Uses

Source:

226

75
90
165

49
153
202
1,365

Equity
Gencor/Alusaf
IDC
Others
Total
Quasi-equity (subordinated debt)
IFC
Other development
financial institutions
Total
Cash generation
Export credit
IDC--arranged
Coface insured
Loans
IFC
Other development
financial institutions
Total Senior Debt
Total Sources

Company documents

Page 3

$125
125
250
500

37%

150

11

35

680
1,365

50
100

65
85

35

400
140
55
85

Exhibit6

Exhibit 6

Summary of Financial Projections in Constant 1997 Dollars ($ millions)


1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total assets

163

Current senior debt


Net senior debt
Subordinated debt
(quasi-equity)
Retained Earnings
Share capital
Total capital
Senior debt/Total capital
Current ratio

778 1,252 1,328 1,272 1,202 1,132 1,062

DSCR (total debt)

Equity investment
Dividends and subordinate
debt interest
Subordinated debt
principal repayment
Equity cash flow=

687

607

570

530

70
311

70
240

70
170

70
100

33
67

53
13

13
0

0
0

0
0

144

100
163

150 150 150 150 150


13
13
13
13
13
327 484 500 500 500 500 500
778 1,252 1,312 1,255 1,184 1,114 1,044

150
13
500
973

150
13
500
903

150
13
500
833

120
13
500
733

90
13
500
669

60
13
500
586

30
13
500
543

0
13
500
513

39%

47%

50%

Sales
Cash flow (pre interest)
Interest on senior debt
Senior debt principal
repayment
100

312

216

49%
1.3

47%
1.4

44%
1.6

40%
1.8

36%
2.0

32%
2.1

27%
2.3

20%
2.5

14%
4.0

10%
3.2

2%
7.1

0%
12.8

0%
16.1

5.2

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

4.3

3.0

12.1

NA

4.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.4

2.2

1.8

3.4

5.2

394
170
12

429
189
52

429
190
47

429
190
41

429
186
35

429
187
29

429
187
23

429
171
17

429
170
11

429
171
7

429
170
4

429
170
1

429
170
0

29

57

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

33

53

13

51

57

63

66

72

79

68

73

79

106

125

140

30

30

30

30

30

103

109

136

155

170

22
63

-100

-312

-216

70
381

750

85

70
451

851

366

DSCR (senior debt)a

70
522

921

29
595

63

57
592

991

41

51

57
Page 4

63

66

72

79

68

Exhibit6

irr=
Source:

7%
Company documents, IFC analysis, and casewriter estimates.

DSCR = debt service coverage ratio = cash flow (principal + interest).

The equity investment includes both equity and subordinated debt (quasi-equity) investments.

Page 5

Exhibit7

Exhibit 7

Mozambican Macroeconomic Data (1980-1996)

Real
GDP
(1987 $)

Real
GNP
per
Capita

CPI
Inflation

Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
6/97
Sources:

1,564
1,746
1,686
1,471
1,215
1,207
1,179
1,353
1,464
1,559
1,574
1,651
1,638
1,946
2,033
2,061
2,193

NA
NA
189
160
120
140
170
140
110
90
90
90
80
90
90
80
90

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
47.8
12.2
175.8
55.0
42.1
49.2
33.3
45.1
42.3
63.1
54.4
44.6

National
Exports
($ mil.)
399
460
400
298
214
184
192
176
188
200
229
309
304
312
355
407
479

Net
Institutional
Current
Foreign
Total
Government Human
Investor
Account
Direct
External
Budget Development Country
Balance (as Investment Debt (as %
Balance
Index
Risk
% of GDP)
-20.9
-17.8
-20.2
-18.2
-15.9
-11.7
-13.6
-51.2
-61.1
-63.8
-59.9
-51.1
-59.4
-58.5
-60.4
-46.3
-38.9

0
0
0
0
0
0
2
6
5
3
9
23
25
32
35
45
73

0.0
0.0
0.0
3.6
61.6
104.4
115.0
303.4
344.8
327.4
323.3
327.4
413.7
369.4
394.3
395.4
332.1

-11.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
-18.4
-24.4
-22.9
-27.0
-24.8
-29.2
-24.9
-26.3
-22.2
-29.7
-20.8
-17.0

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.239
0.155
0.246
0.261
0.281
0.281
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
7.6
7.3
7.0
7.0
7.5
11.9
12.8
14.0

African Development Indicators (various years), World Bank, World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund (various years), Human Developm
UNDP (various years), Institutional Investor International Edition, and International Country Risk Guide.

The HDI is an index used by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to measure the overall achievements in a country in three basic dimensions of huma
developmentlongevity,
knowledge and a decent standard of living.
b
The Institutional Investor rating is based on a survey of 75-100 international bankers who were asked to grade each country on a scale of 1 (very high chance of def
to 100 (least chance of default).
c
The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) provides a rating composed of 22 variables in three subcategories or risk: political (100 points), financial (50 points),
and economic (50 points). ICRG provides ratings for 140 countries on a monthly basis where higher numbers indicate lower risk.
The political risk rating measure a countrys political stability.
The financial risk rating measures a country's ability to finance its official, commercial, and trade debt obligations.
The economic risk rating measures the country's current economic strengths and weaknesses.
The composite risk rating equals the sum of the individual ratings divided by two: 0.0-49.5 (very high risk), 80.0 to 100.0 (very low risk)
Page 6

Exhibit7

ICRG Risk Ratingsc


Political Financial Economic Composite
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
42.0
40.0
43.0
50.0
49.0
46.0
45.0
38.0
41.0
52.0
58.0
54.0
56.0

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
23.0
22.0
25.0
26.0
26.0
26.0
26.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
6.0
6.0
4.5
7.0
8.0
13.5
14.5
15.5
19.5
17.5
13.0
19.5
20.0

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
35.5
34.0
36.3
41.5
41.5
42.8
42.8
38.8
42.3
46.8
47.5
48.8
50.0

years), Human Development Report,

asic dimensions of human

1 (very high chance of default)

), financial (50 points),

Page 7

Exhibit8

Exhibit 8

Sub-Saharan African Macroeconomic Data (1996 unless otherwise noted)

Life
Population Expectancy
(millions)
(Years)

Country

United Nations
HDI (1995)
a
Rank
Score

Nominal
GDP
($ mil.)

GDP

1990-96
Real

per
Capita
(dollars)

GDP
Growth
(percent)

Total
Debt
(% GDP)

ICRG Ratingsb
Political
Risk

Mozambique

18.0

45

0.281

166

1,715

90

5.5

355

50.0

Angola
Botswana
Burundi
Congo (Zaire)
Gabon
Kenya
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Namibia
Rwanda
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe

11.1
1.5
6.4
45.2
1.1
27.4
2.0
13.7
10.0
1.6
6.7
37.6
0.9
30.5
19.8
9.2
11.6

46
51
47
53
55
58
58
58
43
56
41
65
57
50
43
44
56

0.344
0.678
0.241
0.383
0.568
0.463
0.469
0.348
0.334
0.644
NA
0.717
0.597
0.358
0.340
0.378
0.507

156
97
170
143
120
137
134
153
161
107
NA
89
115
150
160
146
130

NA
NA
899
19,437
5,704
9,272
NA
4,156
NA
3,026
1,330
126,301
1,069
NA
6,005
4,168
7,509

340
NA
140
NA
3,620
330
670
240
180
2,080
190
3,140
NA
130
290
430
620

-2.9
4.8
-2.6
-7.0
2.5
1.9
5.0
0.3
3.0
4.3
-8.7
0.8
2.1
3.4
6.9
0.0
1.0

37
15
103
142
76
58
70
113
134
NA
77
NA
22
136
52
120
42

50.0
80.5
NA
37.0
67.5
69.0
NA
58.5
63.0
78.5
NA
75.5
NA
63.0
57.5
61.5
61.0

Sources:

African Development Indicators (various years), World Bank, United Nations, and Institutional Investor International Edition.

The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) is a rating of human development across 174 countries. The score ranges
from
0 (low) to 1.00 (high); the rank ranges from 1 (high) to 174 (low).
b
The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) provides a rating composed of 22 variables in three subcategories of risk: political
(100 points), financial (50 points), and economic (50 points). ICRG provides ratings for 140 countries on a monthly basis.
The political risk rating measure a countrys political stability.
The composite risk rating equals the sum of the individual ratings divided by two: 0.0-49.5 (very high risk), 80.0 to 100.0 (very low risk).
c
The
Institutional Investor rank is out of 135 rated countries (low numbers represent less risky countries).
d
The Institutional Investor rating is based on a survey of 75-100 international bankers who were asked to grade each country on a scale of
1 to 100, with 100 representing the least chance of default.

Page 8

Exhibit8

Institutional Investor
b

ICRG Ratings
Composite
Risk

March
1997
c
Rank

March
1997
d
Rating

March
1990
d
Rating

56.0

116

14.9

7.5

54.0
72.0
NA
36.0
58.0
68.0
NA
60.0
66.0
80.0
NA
75.0
NA
62.0
52.0
66.0
65.0

123
45
NA
131
92
81
NA
NA
101
NA
NA
51
74
105
107
113
71

12.5
49.5
NA
8.1
24.1
27.9
NA
NA
19.8
NA
NA
46.0
31.8
18.1
17.7
16.1
32.3

12.2
NA
NA
8.3
29.8
29.7
NA
NA
15.2
NA
NA
34.0
18.7
10.1
5.4
9.0
27.8

Page 9

Exhibit9A

Exhibit 9A

Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Source:
Notes:

Summary of IFC Financial and Operating Statistics


Total
Approved
Total
Number of
Number of Financing Committed
Firms in
Non-Accrual Principal in
Projects
for Own Portfolio for Committed
Loans as
Arrears as Net Income
Approved Account Own Account Portfolio
% of Total
% of Total (millions)
55
56
65
58
62
75
85
92
95
92
122
152
167
185
231
213
264
276

$681
811
612
845
696
937
1,156
920
1,039
1,292
1,505
1,540
1,773
2,133
2,463
2,877
3,248
3,317

$402
749
1,049
1,267
1,622
1,979
2,518
3,260
3,374
4,045
4,752
5,494
6,423
7,132
7,893
9,461
9,844
10,521

288
314
333
341
349
366
377
404
454
468
495
618
703
798
868
939
985
1,046

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
18.0%
15.8
11.1
7.5
5.2
5.6
6.7
8.3
7.2
6.5
5.6
4.9

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
4.1%
6.1
5.0
3.2
2.5
2.3
3.7
4.3
4.0
3.9
3.3
2.7

International Finance Corporation, Annual Reports.


Non-accrual means the loans are not accruing interest in a timely fashion.
Principal in arrears means the amount of principal not paid when it was due.

Page 10

$20.70
19.5
21.6
23.0
26.3
28.3
25.4
53.8
100.6
196.5
157.0
165.9
180.2
141.7
258.2
188.0
345.8
431.9

Exhibit9A

Total Assets
(millions)
$908
1,085
1,233
1,314
1,390
1,673
2,236
2,814
3,427
4,006
5,606
6,648
8,133
8,913
14,723
18,228
22,640
28,975

Page 11

Exhibit9B

Exhibit 9B

IFC Investments by Region as of June 30, 1997 ($ millions)


Investments Held for IFC ($ millions)
Equity
Percent
at Cost
of Total
Loans
Total

Region
Latin America and the Caribbean
Asia
Europe
Central Asia, Middle East, and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Worldwide investments
Total

Source:

3278.2
2284.5
1080.3
1003.2
594.4
82.0

773.2
606.6
335.7
246.3
188.1
87.3

4051.4
2891.0
1416.0
1249.5
782.5
169.3

38.4
27.4
13.4
11.8
7.4
1.6

8322.5

2237.7

10559.7

100

International Finance Corporation: 1997 Investment Portfolio.

Page 12

Exhibit10A&B

Exhibit 10A

Largest IFC Investments as of June 30, 1997 ($ millions)

Project Name

Country

Sector

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)

Thailand
Thailand
India
Argentina
Brazil
Venezuela
Brazil
Philippines
Thailand
Argentina

Oil Refining
Chemicals
Mining/Extraction
Infrastructure
Food/Agribusiness
Infrastructure
Food/Agribusiness
Infrastructure
Infrastructure
Mining/Extraction

Star Petroleum
Thai Petrochemicals
Ispat Industries
Aguas Argentinas
Ceval Alimentos
Compaa Telfonos
Sadia Concrdia
Hopewell Power
Mass Transit System
Bridas S.A.P.I.C.

Exhibit 10B

94
97
92,95,97
96,96
93,96
96
94,95,97
93
97
93,96

Original Commitment
Total in
Syndicate
Total IFC
100.0
100.0
102.8
85.0
90.0
75.0
80.0
70.0
69.7
80.0

350.0
400.0
85.0
307.5
130.0
185.6
222.0
11.0
0.0
100.0

Investments Held for IFC


Equity at
Cost
Loans
100.0
100.0
85.5
75.1
68.6
75.0
64.0
60.0
59.8
42.1

0.0
0.0
5.8
7.0
10.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
9.8
25.0

Largest IFC Investments in Sub-Saharan Africa as of June 30, 1997 ($ millions)

Project Name

Country

Sector

1)
2)
4)
3)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)

Pecten Cameroon
Energy Haute Mer
Mines dOr
Block CI-11
Panafrican Paper
Minire de Syama
Mobil/Nigeria
SA Capital Growth
Tourist Co.
Goldfields Ltd.

Cameroon
Congo Rep.
Mali
Cte dIvoire
Kenya
Mali
Nigeria
South Africa
Nigeria
Ghana

Mining/Extraction
Mining/Extraction
Mining/Extraction
Mining/Extraction
Timber/Paper
Mining/Extraction
Mining/Extraction
Financial Services
Hotels/Tourism
Mining/Extraction

255 other investments

34 countries

Source:

Year of
Investment

Year of
Investment
92,96,97
96
95
93,95
70,90,96
94
91
96
94
90,92,97

International Finance Corporation: 1997 Investment Portfolio.


Page 13

Original Commitment
Total in
Syndicate
Total IFC
$74.5
46.8
39.8
38.7
69.0
28.1
75.0
20.0
17.5
27.0

Investments Held for IFC


Equity at
Cost
Loans

177.9
25.0
25.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
95.0
0.0
0.0
18.5

49.3
43.9
35.0
0.0
30.0
26.7
22.5
0.0
15.0
13.6

0
2.9
4.8
38.7
4.5
1.4
0.0
20.0
2.5
3.0

Total

236.0
594.4

77.8
188.1

Exhibit10A&B

ts Held for IFC


Total
100.0
100.0
91.3
82.1
78.6
75.0
74.0
70.0
69.7
67.1

ts Held for IFC


Total
49.3
46.8
39.8
38.7
34.5
28.1
22.5
20.0
17.5
16.6
313.8
782.5

Page 14

Exhibit11

Exhibit 11

IFC Investment Returns (1978-1995)


Median Rates of Return (ROR)
347 IFC Projects Completed from 1978-1995

Region
Africa
Asia
CAMENAe
Europe
f
Latin America
Average

Financial RORa
c
d
Ex Ante
Ex Post

Economic RORb
c
d
Ex Ante
Ex Post

18.0%
19.0

9.0%
14.0

19.0%
20.0

10.0%
13.0

20.5
19.4
20.0

11.4
12.0
13.0

24.0
19.9
20.0

13.6
15.0
12.0

19.0

12.0

20.0

12.0

Source: IFC Economics Department, cited in the Annex to Private Sector and Development: Five
Case Studies, The World Bank, March 1, 1997.
Notes and definitions:
a

Financial rate of return (ROR) is the projects internal rate of return based on constant price
projections of pre-interest, after-tax cash flows, less project costs.

Economic rate of return (ROR) is the projects internal rate of return based on constant price
projections of pre-interest, pre-tax cash flows adjusted for economic distortions and transfer
payments, less project costs.
c
Ex ante estimates were made prior to project implementation.
d

Ex post estimates were made during an Investment Assessment Report which is typically done
several years after project implementation.
e
CAMENA = Central Asia, Middle East, and North Africa.
f

Includes the Caribbean.

Page 15

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