GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L09707, doi:10.
1029/2010GL042659, 2010
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Downward Arctic Oscillation signal associated with moderate
weak stratospheric polar vortex and the cold December 2009
Lin Wang1 and Wen Chen1
Received 28 January 2010; revised 8 April 2010; accepted 12 April 2010; published 11 May 2010.
[1] The climatic anomalies and related mechanism for
the cold December 2009 in Northern Hemisphere are
analyzed preliminarily. It is revealed that both anomalously
low monthly mean temperature and more extreme cold
days occurred over many areas of mid‐latitude Northern
Hemisphere in this December. This cold condition can be
accounted for by the extreme negative Arctic Oscillation
(AO) at surface level, which is the lowest one for the
past 31 years. It is shown that the negative surface AO in
December is closely associated with the downward
propagating anomalies from the stratosphere, implying
the involvement of stratospheric processes in this cold
month. Since the preceding stratospheric signal is not as
strong as those reported in previous studies, it suggests
that some relatively weaker stratospheric anomalies can
also propagate downward and influence the troposphere.
Citation: Wang, L., and W. Chen (2010), Downward Arctic
Oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric
polar vortex and the cold December 2009, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
37, L09707, doi:10.1029/2010GL042659.
1. Introduction
[2] The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant mode in
Northern Hemisphere winter on the interannual timescale,
which extends from surface to the stratosphere with its
positive (negative) phase representing poleward (equator-
ward) shift of the mid‐latitude westerly winds [Thompson
and Wallace, 1998]. It serves as one of the most impor-
tant factors that influence the wintertime surface air tem-
perature fluctuations over both the northern Eurasian
continent and North America [Thompson and Wallace,
2001]. In addition, its impact can extend to East Asia, mod-
ulating the frequency of cold surges [Jeong and Ho, 2005]
and the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon [Chen
et al., 2005; Gong et al., 2001].
[3] In recent years, many studies suggest that certain
extreme stratospheric anomalies associated with AO (e.g.,
major warming) can propagate downward and influence the
tropospheric weather regimes, which may be used to
improve the tropospheric extended‐range weather forecast
[Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001; Baldwin et al., 2003]. For
example, Jeong et al. [2006] indicate that the cold surge
occurrence over East Asia is associated with stratospheric
precursors. The stratospheric weak polar vortex events are
also found to be followed by more cold days in the Northern
Hemisphere [Kolstad et al., 2010].
1
Center for Monsoon System research, Institute of Atmospheric
Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
0094‐8276/10/2010GL042659
L09707
[4] In December 2009, frequent severe cold weather
attacked many areas of mid‐latitude Northern Hemisphere
with record‐breaking blizzards, snow storms, and low tem-
peratures. Since these areas coincided with the large popu-
lations (e.g., USA, Europe and China), it caused extensive
damage to the traffic, agriculture and fishery. For example,
in northern China, the direct economic losses caused by one
disastrous snow storm reached up to 7 billion RMB. The
reason for this cold month is therefore a hot topic for not
only the meteorologists, but also the public. In this work, we
will show that this anomalous cold December in the Northern
Hemisphere is closely associated with the downward propa-
gation of AO anomalies from the stratosphere.
2. Data and Methods
[5] Daily and monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
data with 2.5° latitude by 2.5° longitude resolution [Kalnay
et al., 1996] are used in this study. The monthly mean AO
index at 1000 hPa is downloaded from http://www.cpc.ncep.
noaa.gov. In this study, we focus on the Decembers from
1979 to 2009. All the anomalies are calculated from their
departures from 1979–2009 means. In addition to the
monthly mean values, the number of cold days is also used
to indicate the climate extremes, where the cold days are
defined as days with an 850‐hPa temperature below its
10th percentile [Kolstad et al., 2010]. A quantity a is further
defined as the fractional change in the number of cold days
with respect to its climatology. If a = 1.5, cold days are
50 percent more than normal. As a diagnostic tool, the
quasi‐geostrophic Eliassen‐Palm flux (EP flux) [Andrews et
al., 1987] is used to indicate the stationary wave activities.
By expanding the monthly mean geopotential height field
into their zonal Fourier harmonics, the sum of zonal wave-
numbers 1–3 is used to represent the stationary planetary
waves [Wang et al., 2009].
3. Results
[6] Figure 1a shows the 850‐hPa temperature anomalies
in December 2009. It is clear that the northern part of
Eurasian continent experienced extremely severe cold con-
ditions, with the anomalous cooling exceeding −6°C around
60°N, 80°E. This cold anomaly extends westward to most of
Europe and southeastward to large areas over East Asia. The
strong cooling also occurred over middle North America,
North Pacific and North Atlantic with the temperature
anomaly exceeding −4°C around 50°N, 100°W. If the tem-
perature in the Eurasian cold core area (50°E–110°E, 55°N–
70°N) is calculated for each year, it can be found that this
December is the coldest one since at least 1979 (Figure 2a).
The area‐averaged monthly mean temperature reaches
−20.4°C. In contrast with the anomalous cooling over
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L09707 WANG AND CHEN: STRATOSPHERIC AO AND COLD DECEMBER 2009 L09707

Oscillation [Wang et al., 2007]. The most interesting point is

that although the SLP field exhibits positive AO pattern, the
weak stratospheric polar vortex at 50‐hPa suggests strong
negative AO in the stratosphere (Figure 3a). This feature can
also be seen clearly in the zonal‐mean zonal wind anoma-
lies, where a westerly/easterly wind dipole straddles around
40°N in the troposphere (Figure 3c). A comparison between
November and December conditions seems to imply that the
negative AO signal at the surface in December may be from
the stratosphere in November.
[9] In order to check the associated atmospheric pro-
Figure 1. (a) The monthly mean 850‐hPa temperature cesses, we examined the stationary planetary wave activities
anomalies in December 2009. (b) The number of cold days in the two months. Previous studies have shown that in the
in December 2009 divided by its climatology for each grid zonal mean sense planetary waves propagate upward from
point, that is, a for December 2009. Contour intervals are the lower boundary over midlatitudes and split into two
2°C in Figure 1a and 1 in Figure 1b, respectively. branches in the upper troposphere, with one branch propa-
gating along the polar waveguide [Dickinson, 1968] into the
stratosphere and the other going equatorward along the low‐
northern mid‐high latitudes, strong warming (exceeding latitude waveguide [Huang and Gambo, 1983] in the tro-
6°C) occurred over the North Pole region with two centers posphere (see Wang et al. [2009] for more descriptions). In
being located around Greenland and Bering Strait, respec- November the stationary planetary wave propagation along
tively. The distribution of a for December 2009 suggests that the polar waveguide into the stratosphere is anomalously
the areas with cold anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere strong (Figure 3c). The anomalous convergence of EP flux
are generally collocated with more cold days (Figure 1b).
The area‐averaged number of cold days in the Eurasian cold
core area is also the highest (10.1 days) for the past 31 years
(Figure 2b). In the extreme sense, the number of cold days is
4.8 times more than its climatology to the east of Ural region
(Figure 1b). Since a represents the extent to which extreme
low temperature events occur [Kolstad et al., 2010], these
results suggest that the December in 2009 is characterized by
not only lower monthly mean temperature but also more
extreme cold events.
[7] The temperature anomalies shown in Figure 1a are
quite similar to those associated with negative AO
[Thompson and Wallace, 1998], implying a possible influ-
ence from AO. The associated sea level pressure (SLP) and
50‐hPa geopotential height anomalies (Figures 3d and 3e)
show that the geopotential height is anomalously high in the
polar region and low in the midlatitudes, with the zero lines
being located around 50°N at both levels. This result sug-
gests a robust negative AO structure from surface to the
lower stratosphere, which features easterly (westerly) wind
anomalies north (south) of ∼40°N (Figure 3f). We further
checked the December mean AO index since 1979. Figure 2c
shows that the index in 2009 is the lowest one (−3.41) during
the last 31 years. The area‐averaged 850‐hPa temperature and
number of cold days in the Eurasian cold core area are then
used as indices, and their relationship with AO index are
examined. For the past 31 years, the correlation coefficients
are 0.49 and −0.46, both exceeding 99% confidence level.
This result suggests that a large portion of the cold December
in 2009 is associated with the extreme negative AO.
[8] One important question is where this extreme AO
signal comes from. So we examined the circulation
anomalies one month before. In November 2009 the SLP
anomaly is negative around North Pole and British Isles and
positive in the midlatitudes over Asia‐North Pacific region
and around Kara Sea (Figure 3b), which roughly projects
onto the positive AO pattern, with the AO index being 0.46. Figure 2. The area‐mean (50°–110°E, 55°N–70°N)
In contrast to the traditional AO pattern, the mid‐latitude (a) 850 hPa temperature and (b) number of cold days in
positive center over North Pacific is stronger than that over December for the period 1979–2009. (c) The normalized
North Atlantic (Figure 3b), resembling the North Pacific December mean AO index for the period 1979–2009.

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L09707 WANG AND CHEN: STRATOSPHERIC AO AND COLD DECEMBER 2009
Figure 3. The anomalies of (a) 50‐hPa geopotential
height, (b) SLP, and (c) zonal‐mean zonal wind (contour),
EP flux (vector), and EP flux convergence (shaded) for sta-
tionary planetary waves in November 2009. (d–f) Same as
Figures 3a–3c, but for December 2009. Contour intervals
are 50 gpm in Figures 3a and 3d, 3 hPa in Figures 3b and
3e, and 2 ms−1 in Figures 3c and 3f. Shading intervals are
2 ms−1 day−1 in Figures 3c and 3f, with red (blue) indicating
positive (negative). EP fluxes are scaled by the inverse of
the air density and with the unit m2 s−2.
around 75°N helps to decelerate the polar night jet and
induce negative AO in the lower stratosphere. In December,
the equatorward wave propagation along the low‐latitude
waveguide is significantly weakened in the troposphere
(Figure 3f). In addition, there exists anomalous downward
EP flux around 50°N from the stratosphere to the tropo-
sphere. These lead to EP flux convergence (divergence)
around 60°N (30°N) and decelerate (accelerate) the westerly
wind there, which induces robust negative AO in December
(Figure 3f). Christiansen [2001] found that the downward
propagation of AO signal from the stratosphere is usually
accompanied with preceding upward and then downward
EP flux anomalies. Therefore, the anomalous wave activities
in the two months imply that the extreme negative AO in
December is quite possibly associated with some downward
propagating processes from the stratosphere.
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L09707
[10] Since the monthly mean plots cannot distinguish
individual downward propagating events, the daily evolu-
tion of temperature anomalies in the North Pole region
(north of 70°N) is further shown in Figure 4a. In November
there are two periods of warming in the polar stratosphere
around November 5 and 15, respectively. Following each
warming, positive temperature anomalies gradually propa-
gate downward and reach the troposphere in about 15 days.
After the second warming, the polar stratosphere tends to
recover to its normal condition. However, the recovery
process was disturbed by anomalous upward propagating
planetary waves around November 28 (not shown), which
interrupts the second downward propagating process on one
hand and leads to the third warming at ∼10 hPa around
December 6 on the other hand. The positive anomalies of
the third warming then propagate downward into the tro-
posphere and reach the surface (Figure 4a). Although the
third warming seems to be simultaneous near surface and
above 20 hPa around December 6, a check of JRA25
reanalysis dataset which has higher pressure top indicates
that the related signal can be found in the upper stratosphere
around December 1 (Figure 4b), suggesting a lead in the
stratosphere. Among the three events, the first one is mainly
confined to November and the latter two are more closely
associated with the surface polar warming in December. In
addition to the temperature signals over polar‐cap region,
these downward propagation processes can also be seen in
other zonal‐mean variables (e.g., Figure 4b or geopotential
height). Therefore, this result confirms the speculation that
the surface negative AO in December 2009 is closely
associated with the downward propagation of AO signal
from the stratosphere.
4. Summary and Discussions
[11] This study provides a preliminary analysis on the
cold December 2009. It reveals that this December is
characterized by not only anomalously low monthly mean
temperature, but also more extreme cold days over Europe,
northern Eurasian continent, East Asia and North America.
To the east of Ural region, the monthly mean temperature is
the lowest and the number of cold days is the greatest for the
period 1979–2009. Most of these cold conditions can be
attributed to the extreme negative AO near surface in
December, which accounts for about 25% of the historical
total variance. Moreover, it is interesting to find that the
negative AO at the surface in December is closely asso-
ciated with the downward propagation of AO signal from
the stratosphere, which implies a possible influence of the
stratosphere on this cold December. Therefore, the role of
stratosphere and related dynamical processes should be
taken into account when more in‐depth and detailed
analyses are performed.
[12] One question that needs to be addressed is what
caused the preceding stratospheric warming before its
downward propagation. Previous studies suggested that the
stratospheric warming may be caused by upward propa-
gating atmospheric waves excited by thermal or orographic
forcing [Andrews et al., 1987], and that major stratospheric
warming is likely preceded by the tropospheric blocking
[Martius et al., 2009]. In this case, we noticed that before
the warmings there are positive sea surface temperature
(SST) anomalies over North Pacific and North Atlantic. In
L09707 WANG AND CHEN: STRATOSPHERIC AO AND COLD DECEMBER 2009 L09707

Figure 4. The daily evolution of (a) air temperature anomalies in the North Pole region (north of 70°N) and (b) the zonal
mean zonal wind anomalies at 60°N for the period November 15 to December 31, 2009. Contour interval is 1°C in Figure
4a and 3 ms−1 in Figure 4b. Figure 4b is based on JRA25 reanalysis dataset. The period mean of the displayed period is
subtracted in advance to remove variations longer than 45 days in Figure 4b.

addition, strong positive geopotential height anomalies were
observed around Alaska at 500‐hPa level which indicates
strong blocking in that region. Therefore, it implies that the
anomalous SST and associated blocking over North Pacific
may play some critical roles in this case.
[13] Another interesting point is that in previous studies,
the downward propagation is usually documented for
extreme strong stratospheric anomalies such as major
warming or strong vortex intensification [e.g., Baldwin and
Dunkerton, 2001; Limpasuvan et al., 2005]. However, the
warmings in this case even do not meet the criteria for minor
warming defined by World Meteorological Organization
(not shown). It suggests that in addition to extreme strong
events, some weaker stratospheric anomalies can also
propagate downward and influence the troposphere. A
simple comparison between this case with several other
major warming cases, however, does not indicate significant
difference in their downward propagating processes. Nev-
ertheless, we have a feeling that the dynamical processes
occurred between November 28 and December 8 are vital
for this case, in which the involvement of transient eddies
may also be important. Therefore, further study is needed on
this direction.
[14] In addition to AO, another important factor that needs
to be considered is El Niño. In December 2009 positive SST
anomalies were observed over central tropical Pacific. The
SLP anomaly pattern in this month (Figure 2e) is similar to
the winter pattern for a moderate El Niño composite (see
Figure 1c of Toniazzo and Scaife [2006]), implying that El
Niño may play some role. We calculated the correlation
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coefficients between Niño3.4 index and the area‐averaged
850‐hPa temperature/number of cold days in the Eurasian
cold core area for the past 31 Decembers. Although the
correlation coefficients (0.32 and −0.36) both exceed 90%
confidence level, the variance explained by El Niño (∼12%)
is much lower than that by AO (∼25%), suggesting a rela-
tively less important role played by El Niño. Nevertheless,
we notice that several years with low temperature or a
higher number of cold days in the Eurasian cold core area
are featured with El Niño events (Figures 2a and 2b),
implying that the overlapping with El Niño may also be
important. The related discussions are beyond the limitation
of this short manuscript, but it may be necessary to inves-
tigate this problem in the future.
[15] Acknowledgments. We would like to thank the two anonymous
reviewers and editor Paul Williams for their encouragement and construc-
tive suggestions which helped to improve the quality of the paper signifi-
cantly. The first author would like to thank Dr. Kunihiko Kodera for
useful discussions and the help with Figure 4b. This work is supported
jointly by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB428603)
and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40905026 and
40775035).
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