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Wolff Thomas - Ford Motor Company - CFM Paris - Equity Research
Wolff Thomas - Ford Motor Company - CFM Paris - Equity Research
RECOMMENDATION
BUY
Target Price Potential Upside $ 17.51 % 4.85
2012 KEY FINANCIALS Sales Volume Revenues (bil.) EBITDA (bil.) Net Income (bil.) Employees EV/EBITDA 5 666 000 $ 134 252 $ 14 696 $ 5 665 171 000 x11.2
Ford will continue to gain market shares, notably in Asia-Pacific-Africa (APA) The ongoing shift in strategy already allowed the company to gain respectively +1.0 and +0.6 percentage point in the USA and China over the period 2008-2012. Ford having penetrated the Asian market later than its competitors, we expect its market shares in the Asia-Pacific-Africa (APA) region to further grow. Ford is asserting itself as a leader in the Connected and Electric Vehicles segments Fords pioneering R&D programs and partnerships with high-tech companies position it as leader in the automotive fastest growing segments: 60% of its vehicles sold embed connected system and the company is the world second electric car-maker. This positioning will drive both revenues and margins up.
STOCK PERFORMANCE
16.7
Stable margins outlook, expected to remain constant at 17% Margins are estimated to benefit from South America breaking heaven this year and from the Europe business regaining profitability in 2015. They are however likely to be adversely impacted by the ongoing shift in product mix, with low-margin Small Vehicles increasing shares (e.g. +29% in North America in 2012).
Relevant Risk factors Ford has major ongoing investments in APA, which are aimed at capturing the forecasted growth of the region. Should Ford not be able to gain the expected market shares there, those assets could heavily burden the companys returns. Current valuation is already quite high in comparison with the industry characteristics and comparable companies.
Previous close Market Cap. (bil.) Shares Out. (mil.) Volume (90 days) 1-y return (F:US) (S&P 500) 12 EPS 12 P/E Beta 5-y div. yield 5-y T-bond yield
$ 16.70 $ 65.92 3 959.9 37 084 000 44.25 % 27.38% 1.48 10.54 1.76 3.00% 1.31%
Valuation Summary
Target Price Dividend Based Valuation $ 17,51 Free Cash Flow Valuation $ 17,51 Residual Income Valuation $ 17,51 Residual Income Market-to-Book Valuation$ 17,51 Average Value Per Share Current Share Price Potential Upside $ $ 17,51 16,56 5,76%
1
Analyst:
Thomas Wolff Automotive Industry World thomas.wolff@skema.edu
North America Last quarter earnings (Q3) revealed good performances from the North American market, with revenues rising by 11.8% to $21.7 billion and volume rising by 12.9% to 744000 vehicles compared with Q3 2012. Operating margin decreased from 12% to
63,1%
10.6% due to adverse product mix effects and because of favorable one-off items in Q3 2012s earnings.
2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 79 900 81 836 84 472 87 351 (64 431) (65 845) (68 118) (70 597) (7 159) (7 316) (7 569) (7 844) 8 310 8 675 8 785 8 910
2013-2017 Trends This upward trend, driven by the Pick-Up and Small Vehicles segments, is likely to carry on thanks to strong macro-economic fundamentals: Positive trend of New Home Sales, with October up 25.4% compared with September, and 2.7% above consensus; Ageing fleet of vehicles likely to lead to important replacements.
% Margin
10,4%
10,6%
10,4%
10,2%
Europe The ongoing restructuring of the European operations has begun to bear fruits, with a net loss in Q3 2013 that has decreased by 51.3% versus Q3 2012. In terms of
21,0%
production, the company is planning to reduce its production capacity by 18% through the disposal of 3 sites, which would properly resize the business to the local demand and which should generate annual savings of $500 million. It is also deepening its product range, with 25 new models to be launched over the next few years.
2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 26 600 26 599 26 945 27 406 (25 520) (24 777) (24 615) (24 419) (2 836) (2 753) (2 735) (2 713) (1 756) (931) (404) 274
2013-2017 Trends With the stabilization of the economic environment and low-level interest rates over an extended period, volumes are rising again and Fords European business should regain profitability in 2015.
% Margin
-6,6%
-3,5%
-1,5%
1,0%
Asia/Pacific/Africa (APA) Ford is aggressively developing its activity in this region and should continue to gain market shares, notably in China, with the ongoing construction of 7 facilities, and the development of models specifically tailored for regions needs. APA is however facing important challenges. India, for example, is adversely impacted by the volatility of its currency, the rising interest rate and the lack of sustainable infrastructures, and is therefore delivering a growth that is below its potential.
2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 10 000 10 569 11 207 11 915 (9 072) (9 226) (9 733) (10 295) (1 008) (1 025) (1 081) (1 144) (80) 317 392 477
2013-2017 Trends APA is, and is likely to remain, the fastest growing region for Ford. The ability of the ongoing investments in APA to be profitable will depend on the companys ability to generate sales and win market shares in the region.
% Margin
-0,8%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
South America Mainly driven by the sales of pickup in Brazil, South America is likely to breakeven this year. 2013-2017 Trends Even if some concerns are being raised regarding Brazils growth potential, the
2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 10 100 10 441 10 846 11 265 (8 899) (9 115) (9 420) (9 733) (989) (1 013) (1 047) (1 081) 212 313 380 451
company is confident in continuing to steadily grow its sales and profits in the region.
2
% Margin
2,1%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
1 972
(18%)
Pre restructuring
Post Restructuring
The ongoing European restructuring, which intends to close 3 sites and reduce significantly the regional production capacity; The development of Fords in APA, where new facilities are not yet profitable. The company plans to install a production capacity of 2.7 million vehicles, to be compared with the 1 million vehicles sold in the region in 2012.
Outlook:
2008-2012a Ford ROA 2012a Industry 4,97% Ford 4,42% 2017e Ford 4,69%
+7,5%
Return On Equity: over-performing but inflated by the capital structure Fords ROE is on average 50% higher than the industry, and two times higher than its ROE components closest competitors (GM and Toyota, 13.3% and 12,2% respectively). Fords ROE is however highly inflated by the companys high gearing (538,8% in 2012, cf. hereunder) , Capital Structure Leverage Operating performance which contribute to 20.2% of the 36.6%. When cancelling the effect of Fords capital 20,2%
16,4%
structure (and applying the industry average capital structure instead), the ROE falls to 16.4%, much lower than the industry but still slightly over GM and Toyota.
Outlook:
By 2017, we expect the ROE to further increase, driven by forecasted increasing and a similar capital structure.
2008-2012a Ford ROE 2012a Industry 24,25% Ford 36,58% 2017e Ford 40,92%
n/a
Solvency Profile: stable outlook with limited room for error Automotive Debt
14,3%
Fords high Gearing Ratio is essentially due to the important load of debt carried by Ford Credit, the financial services business of the company. The effective debt consumed by the Ford Automotive amounts to $15.8 million (as of Q3 2013), and intended to be reduced to $10 million by 2015. Thanks to a liquid Balance Sheet and to good operating performances (in Q3 2013, management has achieved its 7
th
Altman Z Score remains in the grey zone, standing higher than the industry at 1.58.
Outlook:
$10 bil.
2 3
In the light of the forecasted operating performance and the stable liquidity profile of the company (see below), we expect Fords bankruptcy profile to remain stable.
2008-2012a Ford Gearing Ratio Z Score 2012a Industry 173,26% 1,40 Ford 538,83% 1,58 2017e Ford 545,22% 1,59
Public Debt
6,7
n/a +0,66
2013
2015
The company however has limited room for error, and its bankruptcy risk could rapidly Altman Z Score Sentivity
1.584 1.482
increase should the operating performance lower. The company should notably closely monitor its operating cash flows, which have not been able to keep up with the increase in liabilities over the past few years. This trend is
1.287
1.383
however expected to reverse during the coming years. Furthermore, after running a sensitivity analysis (see appendix page 18), we estimate that a decrease in sales of 10%, combined with slight decrease in EBIT due to a lower absorption of fixed costs, would have an impact of minus 0.1 on Fords Altman Z Score. Each additional decrease of 10% would have an additional negative impact of
Sales EBIT%
100% 8.5%
90% 8%
80% 7.5%
70% 7%
approximately 0.1.
Outlook:
2008-2012a Ford % OCF/Total Liabil. 2012a Industry 7,43% Ford 5,36% 2017e Ford 6,15%
-2,0%
Ford is one of the most, if not the most, sustainable auto-maker with regards to its liquidity profile. The companys current ratio stands at 1.62, well above the industry average (1.15), and above all, its Quick Ratio stands at a comfortable 1.35, which tends illustrate Fords very short-term financial health. When putting those figures into perspective, we estimate that Ford Credit is the
1,62
Auto.
Credit
GROUP
biggest contributor with a Current Ratio of approximately 1.93. However, even on a stand-alone basis, the Automotive business Current Ratio remains higher than the industry, at 1.13, but its Quick Current then falls down to the industry level, at 0.89.
Fords liquid Balance Sheet also contributes to the companys strength toward bankruptcy. Sensitivity run on Altman Z Score suggest that should the companys Current Ratio falls to the average industry level, Z score would automatically fall from its current 1.58 to 1.19.
Outlook:
Auto. Credit GROUP
Considering the high correlation between the Automotive business and Ford Credits level of activity, we do not except any material change over the coming years.
2008-2012a Ford % Current Assets Current Ratio Quick Ratio 2012a Industry 46,93% 1,15 0,90 Ford 74,57% 1,62 1,35 2017e Ford 75,24% 1,63 1,36
Gross Profit and Operating Margin: stable outlook at 17% and 8% We estimate gross profit to remain around 17% for the coming years, at a similar level than the past 3 years on average. Margins should benefit from the restructuring of the European business, which it estimates will regain profitability in 2015, and from the South America business estimated to break even this year. On the other side, margins should be adversely impacted by the following items: Cost leadership war in mature markets, notably in Europe where the economic environment is burdening the sales, and in North America, those two regions accounting almost 45% of Fords revenues; Increasing share of EMCs, likely to consume low-margin products, in the companys revenue; Adverse effect of the product mix, which is turning toward low-margin small vehicles.
Medium 21,2%
Small 65%
Besides those market drivers, we estimate that the companys industrial performance is likely not to improve substantially over the coming years. Indeed, we believe that the impact of Fords brands portfolio reshaping has already delivered its upside in terms of optimization of the manufacturing process.
Outlook
83% 83%
Both market and intrinsic drivers indicate that CoGS should remain at a stable level in percentage of revenues. Gross profits should therefore increase steadily with sales, from $23.8 billion this year to $27.9 billion by 2017.
08
09
10
11
12 13e 17e
Regarding SG&A, are also expect a stable outlook over the next coming years, as we estimate that the restructuring already impacted overhead costs.
2012a Revenues Automotive Cost of Sales Gross Profit 134 252 21 674 2013e 137 317 23 786 2014e 141 588 24 525 2015e 146 326 25 346 2016e 151 221 26 194 2017e 156 281 27 071 2018e 160 970 27 883
(112 578) (113 532) (117 063) (120 980) (125 027) (129 211) (133 087)
% Margin
SG&A Operating Profit
16,1%
(12 182) 9 492
17,3%
(12 460) 11 326
17,3%
(12 848) 11 678
17,3%
(13 278) 12 069
17,3%
(13 722) 12 472
17,3%
(14 181) 12 890
17,3%
(14 606) 13 276
% Margin
7,1%
8,2%
8,2%
8,2%
8,2%
8,2%
8,2%
Income Before Taxes As in the past, IBT over the next few years will be essentially impacted by the interest
Interest Expenses (in % of IBT) 52%
expenses due to the companys high indebtedness. Due to the recent upgrading by Standard & Poors, from BB+ to BBB-, interests should consume only one third of the operating profit going forward, to be compare with more than 50% in 2010. The Interest Coverage Ratio is therefore expected to stand at 3, i.e. much lower than the industry average of 14.3 (excluding outliers). As highlighted in the Solvency analysis of the company, Ford as limited room for error in its operating performance in order to remain able to face its financial obligations. In addition, considering those low level of ratios, some concerns are raised concerning the companys loan covenants, which are not made public.
2008-2012a Ford Interest Coverage 2012a Industry 14,30 Ford 3,02 2017e Ford 3,52
39% 40%
33%
08
09
10
11
12 13e 17e
+3,40
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
Initiated in 2007 through a partnership with Microsoft, Ford pioneered the massdistribution in the Connected Vehicle segment. The in-car communication and entertainment system the two companies have jointly developed, SYNC, has been considerably spread among Fords models, from 7 models in 2008 to 19 in 2012. It is estimated that in 2012, 8.22 million connected vehicles have been sold, which would result in a potential market share of 30% to 40% for Ford on that segment. (No public data has been disclosed on the effective number of cars sold with SYNC). We estimate that Ford has a competitive advantage on that segment, and that sales of cars embedding SYNC (as an optional or standard feature) should further increase, through both increasing total sales and an increase in models proposing the service. Electric-/Hybrid-Vehicles In line with its global strategy of providing the customers the power of choice, Ford his
In % of 2012 sales
60,9%
involved into various aspect of Green Cars, with technologies ranging from hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle. Going forward, we estimate that Fords intensive involvement into R&D and commercial initiatives will allow the company to further capture the growth of these segments and to increase its market shares. This assertion is strengthen by Fords current performance in the overall electric drive segment, with a market share reaching
6,2%
14.7% as of Q3 2013, up from 7.3% in 2012, making Ford the worlds second electric auto-maker behind Toyota. Ford is notably performing very well in the Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles segment, with market shares multiplied by 3.8 over the last 9 months.
2012
Q3 2013
Funding of operations through internal resources seems reasonable Capital Expenditures Capital Expenditures are estimated to gradually increase up to $7.5 billion in 2015/2016, which seems appropriate with regards to the following assertions: Production facilities in North America are getting closer to saturation, with a utilization rate coming close to 100%. Further investments may therefore be foreseen in order to increase the production capacity; Development in APA region requires important capital expenditures in terms of production facilities. Major investments are currently underway in India, and new facilities are on their way to be opened in Oceania; Deeper ranges of products and new segments requiring investments in R&D will call for further development.
In lights of the management ability to efficiently restructure the business (as witnessed by the past years recovery), we are confident in the companys ability to efficiently manage those investment, and we therefore expect them to provide additional sales and positively contribute to the margins. Supply Strategy and Working Capital In the light of the lasting economic crisis in Europe, which, through a decrease in vehicles sold of approximately 23% since 2007, put auto-parts suppliers into severe financial distress, Ford has initiated a plan to reduce its reliance on non-reliable suppliers.
6
The plan foresees to reduce the companys supplier base from 1260 to 750 providers approximately, and is also in line with the current resizing of the European operations. Even if this new supply strategy should provide the company with further bargaining power due to increasing orders towards the remaining suppliers, further details on the different categories of suppliers would be good to make sure the company is not putting itself in a situation of dependence. Considering the current cost leadership war in the automotive market, we took the assumption that an increase in bargaining power towards suppliers, combined with increasing volumes ordered, would be used to lower the purchasing price. We therefore expect global conditions (for both receivables and payables) and inventory management to remain similar as the past few years, which would result in the following Working Capital requirements:
2012a (82 338) (7 362) (16 451) 19 308 49 407 (37 436) 2013e (84 218) (7 424) (16 827) 19 233 50 535 (38 701) 2014e (86 837) (7 655) (17 350) 19 859 52 107 (39 877) 2015e (89 743) (7 911) (17 931) 20 527 53 851 (41 208) 2016e (92 745) (8 176) (18 530) 21 213 55 652 (42 587) 2017e (95 849) (8 450) (19 150) 21 923 57 514 (44 012) 2018e (98 724) (8 703) (19 725) 22 581 59 239 (45 332)
%Sales
Change in WC
27,9%
n/a
28,2%
(1 265)
28,2%
(1 175)
28,2%
(1 332)
28,2%
(1 379)
28,2%
(1 425)
28,2%
(1 320)
VALUATION
Comparable Valuations
Fords current high valuation could slow down the upward trend Without calling into question our strategic analysis of the business and our positive view of Fords stock, we still believe that the companys current valuation is quite high, both in the light of its past performance and in comparison with the industry average. Fords current valuation indeed implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of x11.2, to be compared with the industry average EBITDA of 6.99. As a consequence, we expect Fords stock prices increase to be slowed down. The stock should however deliver its full potential should Ford be able to convert its strategy into concrete cash flows. The following Comparable Multiples reflect the companys current high valuation. Enterprise Value Multiple are though biased by the companys high gearing.
Comparables
Comparables
VALUATION
Intrinsic Valuations
Sum up of the Discounted Cash Flow assumptions Risk-free Rate 2,56% 1,76 5,73% 12,63% 3,60% -32,00% 4,76% 37,52% 62,48% 7,71%
10-year US T-Bond as of October 28, 2013 Average of Ford's10-year, 5-year and 1-year Beta Premium observed on S&P 500 as of October 1, 2013
Beta
10-year 5-year 1-year Average 2,01 1,96 1,30 1,76
Company Beta Market Risk Premium Cost Of Equity Pre-tax Cost of Debt Taxe Rate Post-tax Cost of Debt Weight of Equity Weight of Debt WACC
Interests paid, consistent with the company's rating Effective tax rate
7 033
4 864
0,888
4 990
0,788
4 560
0,700
4 185
0,621
3 852
0,552
1,063
66 712 3 809 17,51 16,56 5,76%
0,888
4 864 22 452 40 298 62 750
0,788
4 990
0,700
4 560
0,621
4 185
0,552
3 852
Total PV Free Cash Flows to Equity Shares Outstanding Estimated Value per Share Current share price Percent difference
1,063
3 777
0,888
3 574
0,788
3 306
0,700
3 054
0,621
2 820
0,552
1,063
10
PV Residual ROCE times growth Sum of PV Residual ROCE times growth PV of Continuing Value Total PV Residual ROCE Add one for book value of equity at t-1 Sum
0,888
0,237 1,04 1,90 2,93 1,00 3,93
Implied Market-to-Book Ratio Times Beginning Book Value of Equity Total PV of Equity Shares Outstanding Estimated Value per Share Current share price Percent difference
1,063
5 605
0,941
5 196
0,885
4 843
0,833
4 706
0,784
4 599
0,738
1,031
11
APPENDIX
2007a
2008a 22 049 17 411 99 557 8 618 92 25 738 173 465 1 592 77 923 (49 358) 403 1 190 3 108 198 9 807 218 328
2009a 21 441 21 387 84 583 5 450 0 17 270 150 131 1 550 64 276 (39 498) 166 43 3 440 7 923 6 819 194 850
2010a 14 805 20 765 77 458 5 917 0 11 675 130 620 2 569 60 955 (37 776) 102 0 2 003 0 6 214 164 687
2011a 17 148 18 618 78 541 5 901 0 12 838 133 046 2 936 58 778 (36 407) 100 0 15 125 0 4 770 178 348
2012a 15 659 20 284 82 338 7 362 0 16 451 142 094 3 246 61 432 (36 490) 87 0 15 185 0 5 000 190 554
ASSETS
Cash and Cash Equivalents Marketable Securities Accounts Receivable - Net Inventories Other Current Assets Net investment in operating leases Current Assets Equity in net assets of affiliated companies Gross Property <Accumulated Depreciation> Amortizable Intangible Assets (net) Goodwill Deferred Tax Assets - Noncurrent Assets of discountinued operations Other Non-Current Assets (2) Total Assets 35 283 15 515 117 263 10 121 653 33 255 212 090 2 853 79 563 (43 324) 565 1 504 3 500 7 537 14 976 279 264
12
APPENDIX
2013e
2014e 16 515 21 392 86 837 7 655 0 17 350 149 750 3 423 72 708 (45 792) 87 0 15 185 0 5 000 200 361
2015e 17 067 22 108 89 743 7 911 0 17 931 154 761 3 538 79 096 (51 065) 87 0 15 185 0 5 000 206 602
2016e 17 638 22 848 92 745 8 176 0 18 530 159 938 3 656 85 984 (56 797) 87 0 15 185 0 5 000 213 053
2017e 18 228 23 612 95 849 8 450 0 19 150 165 290 3 779 93 372 (63 022) 87 0 15 185 0 5 000 219 690
ASSETS
Cash and Cash Equivalents Marketable Securities Accounts Receivable - Net Inventories Other Current Assets Net investment in operating leases Current Assets Equity in net assets of affiliated companies Gross Property <Accumulated Depreciation> Amortizable Intangible Assets (net) Goodwill Deferred Tax Assets - Noncurrent Assets of discountinued operations Other Non-Current Assets (2) Total Assets 16 017 20 747 84 218 7 424 0 16 827 145 233 3 320 66 820 (40 945) 87 0 15 185 0 5 000 194 700
13
APPENDIX
2007a Total sales and revenues <Automotive cost of sales> Gross Profit <SG&A> Goodwill Impairment Operating Profit Interest Income <Interest Expense> Income <Loss> from Equity Affiliates Other Income or Gains <Other Expenses or Losses> Income before Tax <Income Tax Expense> <Minority Interest in Earnings> Income <Loss> from Discontinued Operations Net Income (computed) Other Comprehensive Income Items Comprehensive Income EBITDA 172 455 (142 587) 29 868 (21 169) (2 400) 6 299 1 161 (10 927) 389 0 (668) (3 746) 1 294 (312) 41 (2 723) (558) (3 281) 20 035
2008a 146 277 (127 103) 19 174 (21 430) 0 (2 256) 0 (10 437) 163 0 (1 874) (14 404) (63) (214) 9 (14 672) (9 527) (24 199) 17 902
2009a 118 308 (100 016) 18 292 (13 258) 0 5 034 5 288 (6 828) 10 552 (1 030) 3 026 (69) (245) 5 2 717 (779) 1 938 12 926
2010a 128 954 (104 451) 24 503 (11 909) 0 12 594 0 (6 514) 538 315 216 7 149 (592) 4 0 6 561 (3 449) 3 112 18 178
2011a 136 264 (113 345) 22 919 (11 578) 0 11 341 825 (4 431) 500 413 33 8 681 11 541 (9) 0 20 213 (4 421) 15 792 15 597
2012a 134 252 (112 578) 21 674 (12 182) 0 9 492 1 185 (3 828) 588 369 (86) 7 720 (2 056) 1 0 5 665 (4 120) 1 545 14 696
14
APPENDIX
2013e Total sales and revenues <Automotive cost of sales> Gross Profit <SG&A> Goodwill Impairment Operating Profit Interest Income <Interest Expense> Income <Loss> from Equity Affiliates Other Income or Gains <Other Expenses or Losses> Income before Tax <Income Tax Expense> <Minority Interest in Earnings> Income <Loss> from Discontinued Operations Net Income (computed) Other Comprehensive Income Items Comprehensive Income EBITDA 137 317 (113 532) 23 786 (12 460) 0 11 326 1 185 (3 828) 492 377 (88) 9 465 (3 029) 1 0 6 437 0 6 437 15 780
2014e 141 588 (117 063) 24 525 (12 848) 0 11 678 1 217 (3 925) 506 389 (91) 9 774 (3 128) 1 0 6 647 0 6 647 16 525
2015e 146 326 (120 980) 25 346 (13 278) 0 12 069 1 256 (4 044) 522 402 (94) 10 112 (3 236) 1 0 6 877 0 6 877 17 342
2016e 151 221 (125 027) 26 194 (13 722) 0 12 472 1 298 (4 170) 540 416 (97) 10 459 (3 347) 1 0 7 113 0 7 113 18 205
2017e 156 281 (129 211) 27 071 (14 181) 0 12 890 1 342 (4 300) 558 430 (100) 10 819 (3 462) 1 0 7 358 0 7 358 19 114
15
APPENDIX
2007a Net Income Add back D&A Expenses Add back Stock-Based Compensation Deferred Income Taxes <Income from Equity Affiliates, net of Div> <Increase> Decrease in Accounts Receivable <Increase> Decrease in Inventories Increase <Decrease> in Accounts Payable Other Addbacks to Net Income Other Operating Cash Flows Net CF from Operations (2 723) 13 736 76 (5 477) (175) 45 371 1 348 668 9 205 17 074 1 236 (6 022) 7 237 0 (9 475) 541 (6 483) 919 0 33 113 (39 431) 250 (31) 0 (62) (5 242) 1 014 26 6 389
2008a (14 672) 20 158 35 1 954 60 1 091 (358) (12 647) 1 874 2 326 (179) 6 854 (6 696) (2 708) 2 533 (2 501) (625) (3 143) 0 (5 120) 42 163 (46 299) 756 0 0 (604) (9 104) (808) 0 (13 234)
2009a 2 717 7 892 29 (804) (6) 2 244 2 333 (1 803) 1 030 2 410 16 042 382 (4 561) (3 856) 478 14 403 (377) 6 469 0 (5 935) 45 990 (61 894) 2 450 0 0 (3 570) (22 959) 470 (630) (608)
2010a 6 561 5 584 34 (216) (198) 765 (903) (704) 34 520 11 477 1 318 (4 092) 927 (37) 8 884 (92) 6 908 0 (1 754) 30 821 (47 625) 1 339 0 0 (7 202) (24 421) (53) 0 (6 089)
2011a 20 213 4 256 171 (11 071) (169) (927) (367) (680) (33) (1 609) 9 784 333 (4 293) 2 072 353 (1 902) 396 (3 041) 2 841 0 35 921 (43 095) 0 0 0 92 (4 241) (159) 0 2 343
2012a 5 665 5 204 140 1 989 0 (1 622) (1 401) 485 92 (1 507) 9 045 66 (5 488) (1 386) (737) (6 875) 130 (14 290) 1 208 0 32 436 (29 210) 0 (125) (763) 159 3 705 51 0 (1 489)
Proceeds from Sales of Property, Plant, and Equipment <Property, Plant, and Equipment Acquired> <Increase> Decrease in Marketable Securities Settlement Of Derivatives eeds of retail and other finance receivables and operating leases Other Investment Transactions (2) Net CF from Investing Activities Increase in Short-Term Borrowing <Decrease in Short-Term Borrowing> Increase in Long-Term Borrowing <Decrease in Long-Term Borrowing> Issue of Capital Stock <Share Repurchases - Treasury Stock> <Dividend Payments> Other Financing Transactions (1) Net CF from Financing Activities Effects of exchange rate changes on cash Other cash flows Net Change in Cash
16
APPENDIX
2013e Net Income Add back D&AExpense (net) <Increase> Decrease in Receivables - Net <Increase> Decrease in Inventories <Increase> Decrease in Other Curr. Assets (1) Increase <Decrease> in A/P - Trade Increase <Decrease> in Current Accrued Liab. Net Change in Deferred Tax Assets/Liab. Net Cash Flows from Operations <Increase> Decrease in PPE at cost <Increase> Decrease in Marketable Securities <Increase> Decrease in Investment Securities Net Cash Flows from Investing Activities Increase <Decrease> in Short-Term Debt Increase <Decrease> in Long-Term Debt +/(-) Minority Interest and Preferred Stock +/(-) in Common Stock + Paid in Capital Increase <Decrease> in Treasury Stock Dividends Net Cash Flows from Financing Activities Net Change in Cash 6 437 4 455 (1 880) (62) (376) (75) 1 128 10 9 637 (5 388) (463) (74) (5 925) 416 1 870 8 457 (125) (5 980) (3 354) 358
2014e 6 647 4 847 (2 619) (231) (523) 626 1 572 14 10 333 (5 888) (645) (103) (6 637) 568 2 553 11 624 (125) (6 829) (3 198) 498
2015e 6 877 5 273 (2 906) (256) (581) 668 1 744 15 10 834 (6 388) (716) (115) (7 218) 627 2 814 12 688 (125) (7 079) (3 063) 553
2016e 7 113 5 732 (3 002) (265) (600) 687 1 801 16 11 483 (6 888) (740) (118) (7 746) 648 2 909 12 711 (125) (7 322) (3 166) 571
2017e 7 358 6 225 (3 103) (274) (620) 710 1 862 16 12 174 (7 388) (764) (122) (8 275) 666 2 993 13 732 (125) (7 588) (3 309) 590
17
APPENDIX
EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin
0,80 1,072 1,083 1,095 1,107 1,118 1,130 1,142 1,153 1,165
0,90 1,127 1,139 1,150 1,162 1,174 1,185 1,197 1,208 1,220
1,00 1,182 1,194 1,206 1,217 1,229 1,241 1,252 1,264 1,275
1,10 1,238 1,249 1,261 1,273 1,284 1,296 1,308 1,319 1,331
1,20 1,293 1,305 1,316 1,328 1,340 1,351 1,363 1,374 1,386
1,30 1,348 1,360 1,372 1,383 1,395 1,407 1,418 1,430 1,441
Current Ratio
1,40 1,404 1,415 1,427 1,439 1,450 1,462 1,473 1,485 1,497
1,50 1,459 1,471 1,482 1,494 1,506 1,517 1,529 1,540 1,552
1,60 1,514 1,526 1,538 1,549 1,561 1,572 1,584 1,596 1,607
1,62 1,524 1,536 1,547 1,559 1,571 1,582 1,594 1,605 1,617
1,70 1,570 1,581 1,593 1,605 1,616 1,628 1,639 1,651 1,663
1,80 1,625 1,637 1,648 1,660 1,671 1,683 1,695 1,706 1,718
1,90 1,680 1,692 1,704 1,715 1,727 1,738 1,750 1,762 1,773
18