Poisson & Negative Binomial Regressions

Do not add or delete any rows or colum

Notes
1. Enter all of your information in the light green cells, such as this:
2. Press <Ctrl+Shift+p> to see the XPost pull-down menu (Optional).
3. For statistical interpretations of Poisson and Negative Binomial regression, see Long (1996: 217-50).

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics for Y

Name
Mean
Std
Min
ART
1.69
1.93
0.00

Max
19.00

Table 2. Estimates, Descriptives, Variable Types, and Base Values

Std
Variable
Base
Variable
Mean
Dev
Min
Max
Type
Value
--------------FEM
0.460
0.499
0.000
1.000
b
m
MAR
0.662
0.473
0.000
1.000
b
m
KID5
0.495
0.765
0.000
3.000
c
m
PHD
3.103
0.984
0.755
4.620
c
m
MENT
8.767
9.484
0.000
77.000
c
m

Table 3. Poisson Regression

Variable
Constant

0.460
0.662
0.495
3.103
8.767

FEM
MAR
KID5
PHD
MENT
---------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------

dd or delete any rows or columns.

(1996: 217-50).

Table 3. Poisson Regression

Poisson
Coefs
z-value
0.305
2.958
-0.225
-4.112
0.155
2.529
-0.185
-4.607
0.013
0.486
0.026
12.733

Table 4. Negative Binomial Regression

NB
Variable
Coefs
z-value
Alpha
0.256
1.849
0.442
Constant
-0.216
-2.978
FEM
0.150
1.833
MAR
-0.176
-3.325
KID5
0.015
0.424
PHD
0.029
8.381
MENT
---------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------

Table 5. Observed Prob.

--- Optional --Observed
----0
0.301
1
0.269
2
0.195
3
0.092
4
0.073
5
0.030
6
0.019
7
0.013
8
0.001
9
0.002
10
0.001

Calculator
Notes
1.
2.
3.

Do not add or delete any rows or colum

Enter all of your information in the light green cells, such as this:
Predicted probabilities are given for base values shown in Table 2. Note base values can only be changed i
In the green cells you can choose three variables and specify up to five values for that variable. Predicted p
computed at these values with other values equal to the base values in Table 2.

Basic Information
1.

Enter the value of the highest count value to be considered:

10

(Up to 50 Counts)

Table 1. Predicted Probability

Values
held at:

Observed Prob.
Poisson

Base
Mean
Minimum
Maximum

Predicted
Mean ()

P ( y > Max k )

P(y=k)

--1.61
1.61
1.37
5.51

0.0055

0.3005

0.2689

0.1945

0.0918

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0256

0.1999
0.1999
0.2543
0.0040
1.142
#VALUE!
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#VALUE!

0.3218
0.3218
0.3482
0.0223
2.587
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!

0.2591
0.2591
0.2384
0.0614
4.222
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!

0.1390
0.1390
0.1088
0.1128
6.002
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!

Gya
Negative
Binomial

Base
Mean
Minimum
Maximum

1.60
1.60
1.31
7.18

#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!

With other variables held at their base values,

vary the following variables and calculate the predicted probabilities at the specified values.
Poisson

1.

phd

2.

ment

3.

kid5

0
1
2
3
4
10
20
30
50
70
0
1
2
3
4

Predicted
Mean ()
1.55
1.57
1.59
1.61
1.63
1.66
2.15
2.77
4.62
7.69
1.76
1.47
1.22
1.01
0.84
Predicted

P(y=k)
P ( y > Max k )
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0080
0.1549
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

0.2128
0.2086
0.2044
0.2003
0.1962
0.1898
0.1171
0.0627
0.0099
0.0005
0.1713
0.2307
0.2955
0.3630
0.4308

0.3293
0.3270
0.3245
0.3221
0.3195
0.3154
0.2511
0.1736
0.0457
0.0035
0.3022
0.3384
0.3602
0.3678
0.3628

0.2548
0.2562
0.2576
0.2589
0.2602
0.2621
0.2693
0.2404
0.1054
0.0135
0.2666
0.2481
0.2196
0.1864
0.1528

0.1314
0.1338
0.1363
0.1388
0.1413
0.1451
0.1926
0.2220
0.1622
0.0346
0.1568
0.1213
0.0892
0.0629
0.0429

P(y=k)

Negative Binomial
0
1
phd
2
1.
3
4
10
20
ment
30
2.
50
70
0
1
kid5
2
3.
3
4

Mean (u)
1.53
1.55
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.66
2.22
2.97
5.31
9.51
1.75
1.47
1.23
1.03
0.86

P ( y > Max k )
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dd or delete any rows or columns.

se values can only be changed in the Input sheet.

es for that variable. Predicted probabilities are

(Up to 50 Counts)

10

0.0732

0.0295

0.0186

0.0131

0.0011

0.0022

0.0011

0.0560
0.0560
0.0372
0.1554
7.899
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0.0180
0.0180
0.0102
0.1712
9.897
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
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#VALUE!

0.0048
0.0048
0.0023
0.1573
11.982
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0.0011
0.0011
0.0005
0.1238
14.146
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0.0002
0.0002
0.0001
0.0853
16.382
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0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0522
18.684
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0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0288
21.046
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11

12

11

12

pecified values.
4

10

0.0508
0.0524
0.0541
0.0558
0.0575
0.0603
0.1033
0.1537
0.1871
0.0665
0.0692
0.0445
0.0272
0.0159
0.0090

0.0157
0.0164
0.0172
0.0179
0.0187
0.0200
0.0443
0.0851
0.1728
0.1024
0.0244
0.0130
0.0066
0.0032
0.0015

0.0041
0.0043
0.0045
0.0048
0.0051
0.0055
0.0158
0.0393
0.1329
0.1313
0.0072
0.0032
0.0013
0.0005
0.0002

0.0009
0.0010
0.0010
0.0011
0.0012
0.0013
0.0049
0.0155
0.0876
0.1443
0.0018
0.0007
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000

0.0002
0.0002
0.0002
0.0002
0.0002
0.0003
0.0013
0.0054
0.0506
0.1387
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0003
0.0017
0.0259
0.1186
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0005
0.0120
0.0912
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

10

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Table 2. Base Values

49

49

50

50

Variables

Values

FEM
MAR
KID5
PHD
MENT
---------

0.460
0.662
0.495
3.103
8.767
---------

-----

-----

-----------------------------------

-----------------------------------

---

---

49

50

-------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------

Plotter

Do not add or delete any rows or columns.

Notes
1. Enter all of your information in the light green cells, such as this:
.
2. Enter information about your graph. Note you can edit the graph as with any Excel chart.

Basic Information
1. How many points do you want to plot ?

11

-- up to 50 points

2. The predicted probabilities of Poisson and negative Binomial regressions can be calculated based on the observed m
or any mean value that you specify (or want to experiment). Select one of the mean values in the following three op
( 2 ) ( 1 ) Observed Mean; ( 2 ) Estimated Mean; ( 3 ) An Experimental Mean:

Figure 1. Observed and Predicted Probabilities

Poisson

Neg Binomial

0.2
0.1
0.0

Probability

0.3

0.4

Observed

Number of Counts

10

e any rows or columns.

culated based on the observed mean, the estimate means,

n values in the following three options:
( 5 )
-- please specify.

Table 1. Source of Data

Table 2. Base Values

Probability
Pts

Observed

Poisson

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

0.301
0.269
0.195
0.092
0.073
0.030
0.019
0.013
0.001
0.002
0.001

0.200
0.322
0.259
0.139
0.056
0.018
0.005
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000

Neg Binomial Gya

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###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

Vars

Values

FEM
MAR
KID5
PHD
MENT
-----------------------------------------------

0.460
0.662
0.495
3.103
8.767
-----------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------

Discrete Change
Notes
1.
2.

Do not add or delete any rows or columns.

This page computes factor change and discrete change using the base values specified on the Inpu
are shown on Table 3 below, but can only be changed on the Input sheet. There is nothing you can
Do not add or delete any rows or columns.

Table 1. Poisson Regression

Variable
FEM
MAR
KID5
PHD
MENT

Factor Change
Unit
Std

.799
1.168
.831
1.013
1.026

.894
1.076
.868
1.013
1.274

Marginal
Effect

-.362
.250
-.298
.021
.041

Discrete Change
Range
0-->1

-.359
.244
-------

-----.751
.079
7.912

-----.298
.021
.041

-----.228
.020
.391

or columns.

ase values specified on the Input sheet; these values

sheet. There is nothing you can change on this page.

Table 2. Negative Binomial Regression

Variable
FEM
MAR
KID5
PHD
MENT

Factor Change
Unit
Std

.805
1.162
.838
1.015
1.030

.898
1.074
.874
1.015
1.318

Marginal
Effect

-.347
.241
-.283
.024
.047

Discrete Change
Range
0-->1

-.344
.235
-------

-----.718
.094
10.412

-----.283
.024
.047

-----.216
.024
.443

Table 3. Base Values

Vars

Values

Vtype

FEM
MAR
KID5
PHD
MENT
---------------------------------------------------

0.460
0.662
0.495
3.103
8.767
---------------------------------------------------

b
b
c
c
c

-----------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------