ARC Final Climate Report Dec2013

CLIMATE CHANGE
PROJECTIONS AND
INDICATORS FOR
DELAWARE

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ATN0S Reseaich & Consulting

Becembei 2u1S

uLLAWA8L'S lu1u8L CLlMA1L Payhoe eL al. 2013

/566.17

0vei the coming centuiy, global climate is expecteu to change in iesponse to human emissions of
caibon uioxiue anu othei heat-tiapping gases. This iepoit uocuments how these global changes aie
expecteu to affect the climate of Belawaie, incluuing aveiage annual anu seasonal tempeiatuie anu
tempeiatuie extiemes; seasonal piecipitation, uiought, anu heavy piecipitation; anu inuicatois that
combine tempeiatuie, piecipitation, anuoi humiuity.
Futuie piojections weie uevelopeu foi two veiy uiffeient types of scenaiios, to span a iange of
possible changes ovei the coming centuiy. The !"#$% '($)*%+"' (coiiesponuing to the
Inteigoveinmental Panel on Climate Change SRES
1
B1 anu RCP
2
4.S scenaiios) iepiesent a futuie in
which people shift to clean eneigy souices in the coming uecaues, ieuucing emissions fiom human
activities. The ,+-,$% '($)*%+"' (coiiesponuing to the SRES A1fi anu RCP 8.S scenaiios) iepiesent
a futuie in which people continue to uepenu heavily on fossil fuels, anu emissions of heat-tiapping
gases continue to giow. Scenaiios aie an impoitant souice of unceitainty in ueteimining the
magnituue of piojecteu changes in aveiage annual anu seasonal tempeiatuie, anu many extieme
tempeiatuie anu piecipitation inuicatois, foi miu-centuiy anu beyonu.
Futuie piojections aie baseu on simulations fiom nine newei -!".*! (!+/*0$ /"1$!' fiom phase S
(CCSN4, CNRN-CNS, CSIR0-NkS.6.u, NPI-ESN-LR, BauuEN2-CC, INNCN4, IPSL-CNSA-LR, NIR0CS
anu NRI-CuCNS) anu foui oluei global climate mouels fiom phase S (CCSNS, uFBL CN2.1, BauCNS
anu PCN) of the Coupleu Nouel Inteicompaiison Pioject. Biffeiences between the mouels
iepiesent the limitations of scientific ability to simulate the climate system. These uiffeiences aie
an impoitant souice of unceitainty in ueteimining the magnituue anu sometimes even the uiiection
of piojecteu changes in aveiage anu seasonal piecipitation, as well as the magnituue of the moie
extieme inuicatois of tempeiatuie anu piecipitation. Nost of the piojections uicusseu heie aie
baseu on the moie iecent CNIPS simulations, unless theie aie impoitant uiffeiences between what
is simulateu by the oluei CNIPS veisus the newei CNIPS mouels. The full set of CNIPS anu CNIPS
piojections aie pioviueu in the Excel Appenuices which accompany this iepoit.
Bata fiom 14 long-teim #$*0,$% '0*0+")' in the iegion weie useu in this analysis: Beai, Biiugeville,
Bovei, Bovei AFB, ueoigetown, ueoigetown Sussex Aiipoit, uieenwoou, Lewes, Niuuletown,
Nilfoiu, Newaik 0niveisity Faim, Selbyville, Wilmington Poitei, anu Wilmington New Castle
County (NCC) Aiipoit. The output fiom each global climate mouel simulation was '0*0+'0+(*!!2
1"#)'(*!$1 to each of the 14 weathei stations using the Asynchionous Regional Regiession Nouel.
0vei the coming centuiy, climate change is expecteu to affect Belawaie by incieasing #8)&#9) anu
:)#:,(#4 $);<)&#$=&):.
By neai-centuiy (2u2u-2uS9), annual aveiage tempeiatuie incieases of 1.S to 2.S
o
F aie
piojecteu, iegaiuless of scenaiio.
By miu-centuiy (2u4u-2uS9), annual aveiage tempeiatuie incieases unuei the lowei scenaiio
iange fiom 2.S to 4
o
F anu aiounu 4.S
o
F foi the highei scenaiio.

1
Special Repoit on Emission Scenaiios (SRES)
2
Repiesentative Concentiation Pathways (RCP)

3
By late-centuiy (2u8u-2u99), annual aveiage tempeiatuie is piojecteu to change by neaily
twice as much unuei a highei as compaieu to a lowei scenaiio: 8 to 9.S
o
F compaieu to S.S to
S.S
o
F.
Slightly gieatei tempeiatuie incieases aie piojecteu foi spiing anu summei as compaieu to
wintei anu fall.
The iange of spiing tempeiatuie (calculateu as the uiffeience between uaytime maximum anu
nighttime minimum tempeiatuie) is piojecteu to inciease, while the iange in fall tempeiatuie is
piojecteu to ueciease, uue to piopoitionally laigei incieases in maximum as compaieu to
minimum tempeiatuies. Little change is expecteu in the tempeiatuie ianges foi wintei anu
summei.
The giowing season is piojecteu to lengthen, with slightly gieatei changes in the uate of last
spiing fiost as compaieu to fiist fall fiost.
>);<)&#$=&) )?$&);): aie also piojecteu to change. The gieatest changes aie seen at the tails of
the uistiibution, as iepiesenteu by the numbei of uays above a given high tempeiatuie oi below a
given colu tempeiatuie thiesholu. By miu-centuiy, changes unuei the highei scenaiio aie gieatei
than changes unuei the lowei scenaiio.
The numbei of veiy colu uays (below 2u
o
F), which histoiically occui on aveiage about 2u times
pei yeai, is piojecteu to uiop to 1S by 2u2u-2uS9, to slightly moie than 1u uays pei yeai by
2u4u-2uS9, anu to 1u uays pei yeai unuei a lowei scenaiio anu only S to 4 uays pei yeai unuei
a highei scenaiio by 2u8u-2u99.
The numbei of veiy hot uays (ovei 1uu
o
F), which histoiically occui less than once each yeai,
aie piojecteu to inciease to 1 to S uays pei yeai by 2u2u-2uS9, 1.S to 8 uays pei yeai by 2u4u-
2uS9, anu by S anu 1u uays pei yeai unuei the lowei anu 1S to Su uays pei yeai unuei the
highei scenaiio by 2u8u-2u99.
Beat waves aie piojecteu to become longei anu moie fiequent, paiticulaily unuei a highei as
compaieu to lowei scenaiio anu by latei compaieu to eailiei time peiious. Foi example, heat
waves with at least 4 consecutive uays waimei than the 1-in-1u histoiical aveiage aie expecteu
to occui on aveiage between 1 to S times pei yeai by 2u4u-2uS9, anu an aveiage of S times pei
yeai unuei a lowei anu 1u times pei yeai unuei a highei scenaiio by 2u8u-2u99.
Baytime summei heat inuex (a measuie of how hot it feels, baseu on maximum tempeiatuie
anu aveiage humiuity) is piojecteu to inciease by appioximately twice as much as piojecteu
changes in maximum tempeiatuie alone, uue to the nonlineai ielationship between heat inuex,
tempeiatuie, anu humiuity.
.8)&#9) <&)2'<'$#$',( is piojecteu to inciease an estimateu 1u peicent by late-centuiy, consistent
with piojecteu incieases in miu-latituue piecipitation in geneial. CNIPS anu CNIPS mouels uo not
show the same seasonality: CNIPS shows laigei oveiall incieases in annual piecipitation that aie
spieau acioss wintei, spiing, anu summei, while CNIPS simulations show smallei annual incieases
that occui piimaiily in wintei.
1#'(@#44 )?$&);): aie also piojecteu to inciease. By late-centuiy, neaily eveiy mouel simulation
shows piojecteu incieases in the fiequency anu amount of heavy piecipitation events that is often
gieatei unuei a highei as compaieu to a lowei futuie scenaiio. This inciease is consistent ovei a
veiy bioau iange of uefinitions of "heavy piecipitation," incluuing accumulations ianging fiom u.S
to 8 inches ovei anywheie fiom 1 uay to 2 weeks.

4
All simulations show laige incieases in potential evapotianspiiation anu in the numbei of hot anu
uiy uays pei yeai. Smallei to no significant changes aie piojecteu foi ielative humiuity anu foi the
numbei of cool anu wet uays pei yeai.
Theie is !"#$%#&% (#"%$)*%+ in piojecteu incieases in annual anu seasonal tempeiatuies, high
tempeiatuies, incieaseu evapoiation, piecipitation intensity, anu the fiequency of heavy
piecipitation, all of which show gieatei incieases unuei the highei as compaieu to lowei scenaiio
anu by late-centuiy as compaieu to moie neai-teim piojections. Theie is ,-.#"$%# (#"%$)*%+ in
piojecteu changes in colu tempeiatuies anu a slight inciease in aveiage piecipitation, paiticulaily
in wintei. Theie is /#&& (#"%$)*%+ in piojecteu changes in piecipitation in othei seasons, in piojecteu
changes foi moueiate piecipitation amounts (u.S to 1 inch in 24 houis), anu in the ,$!*)%0.# of
piojecteu changes in events that aie histoiically iaie, incluuing extiemely high tempeiatuies
(>1uu
o
F) anu extiemely high piecipitation events.

3

SECTION 1
A.B"31C5DE

Since the Inuustiial Revolution, atmospheiic levels of heat-tiapping gases such as caibon
uioxiue (C02) anu methane (CB4) have been iising uue to emissions fiom human activities.
The main souice of heat-tiapping gases is the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil,
anu natuial gas (Anuies et al., 1999; Stein & Kaufmann, 1998). 0thei activities, such as
agiicultuie, wastewatei tieatment, anu extiaction anu piocessing of fossil fuels also
piouuce C02, CB4, anu othei gases anu paiticles that affect climate (Foistei et al., 2uu7).
C02, CB4 anu othei heat-tiapping gases exist natuially in the atmospheie. Bowevei,
aitificially auuing to the amounts of these gases in the atmospheie affects the eneigy
balance of the planet. As levels inciease, moie of the heat given off by the eaith that woulu
otheiwise escape to space is tiappeu within the eaith's climate system. This excess heat
incieases the tempeiatuie, anu the heat content, of the atmospheie anu ocean.
Observed and Proj ect ed Fut ure Change
In the past, climate vaiiations weie causeu entiiely by natuial foices. These incluue
changes in amount of eneigy the Eaith ieceives fiom the sun, natuial cycles that exchange
heat between the ocean anu atmospheie, oi the cooling effects of uust clouus fiom
poweiful volcanic eiuptions, amplifieu by natuial feeubacks within the eaith-ocean-
atmospheie system. Touay, howevei, the climate is being alteieu by both natuial anu
human causes (Begeil et al., 2uu7).
0vei the last 1Su yeais, the eaith's long-teim aveiage neai suiface tempeiatuie has
incieaseu by 1.SF (IPCC 2u1S). At the global scale, each uecaue has successively been
waimei than the uecaue befoie. The heat content of the ocean has incieaseu by moie than
2u times that of the atmospheie (Tienbeith et al., 2uu7; Abiaham et al., 2u1S). Recent
stuuies have concluueu that human influence, specifically the incieases in emissions of C02
anu othei heat-tiapping gases fiom human activities, is iesponsible foi most of the
waiming ovei the last 1Su yeais, anu as much as all of the waiming ovei the last 6u yeais
(Bubei & Knutti, 2u11; Fostei & Rahmstoif, 2u11; uillett et al., 2u12).

6
In the 0niteu States, aveiage tempeiatuie has also incieaseu by 1.S
o
F ovei the last centuiy,
with most of the inciease occuiiing in the last Su yeais (Walsh et al., 2u14). Waimei
tempeiatuies aie uiiving many changes in aveiage climate conuitions in the 0niteu States
anu aiounu the woilu. 0bseiveu changes highlighteu by Walsh et al. (2u14) in the Thiiu
0.S. National Climate Assessment incluue:
Noie fiequent heavy piecipitation events, paiticulaily in the Noitheast anu Niuwest
Incieasing iisk of heat waves, floous, uioughts, anu wilufiie iisk in some iegions
Becieases in Aictic sea ice, eailiei snow melt, glaciei ietieat, anu ieuuceu lake ice
Stiongei huiiicanes, iising sea level, anu waiming oceans
Polewaiu shifts in many animal anu plant species, as well as a longei giowing
season
0vei shoit timescales of yeais to moie than a uecaue, natuial vaiiability has a stiong effect
on global anu iegional tempeiatuies. Some patteins of natuial vaiiability inciease the
ocean's shaie of the heat uptake compaieu to the atmospheie's. This can slow the inciease
in, oi even tempoiaiily cool, neai-suiface tempeiatuie. 0thei patteins have the opposite
effect, tempoiaiily acceleiating the long-teim inciease neai-suiface tempeiatuie. 0vei
long-teim climate timescales of Su yeais oi moie, howevei, global tempeiatuie will
continue to change in iesponse to both past anu futuie emissions of heat-tiapping gases
fiom human activities (IPCC, 2u1S).
Futuie changes uepenu on heat-tiapping gas emissions fiom human activities. At the global
scale, tempeiatuie incieases between 2
o
F anu 9
o
F aie expecteu by enu of centuiy,
accompanieu in many iegions of the 0niteu States by incieases in extieme heat anu heavy
piecipitation events. These futuie piojections aie consistent with obseiveu tienus
(0SuCRP, 2uu9; Walsh et al., 2u14). Foi many impacts, highei emissions aie expecteu to
iesult in gieatei amounts of change; lowei emissions, in compaiatively smallei amounts of
change. The 2u11 0.S. National Reseaich Council iepoit, "Climate Stabilization Taigets"
(NRC, 2u11) quantifies many of the impacts that woulu be expecteu to inciease pei uegiee
of global waiming. Foi example, each uegiee-Celsius (almost 2
o
F) inciease in global
tempeiatuie might be expecteu to:
Shift the amount of piecipitation that falls in many iegions aiounu the woilu by S to
1u peicent
Inciease the amount of iain falling uuiing heavy piecipitation events by S to 1u
peicent
Shift the amount of stieamflow anu iunoff in iivei basins by S to 1u peicent (with
incieases in the noitheastein 0niteu States anu uecieases in the southwestein
0niteu States)

7
Shiink annual aveiage Aictic sea ice aiea by 1S peicent (by 2S peicent, foi the
Septembei minimum)
Reuuce yielus of common ciops incluuing wheat anu maize by S to 1S peicent
woiluwiue
Inciease the aiea buineu by wilufiie in the westein 0niteu States by 2uu to 4uu
peicent
This iepoit anu othei iesouices aie listeu in the section "Fuithei Reauing".
Impl i cat i ons for Del aware
Futuie climate uepenus on the impact of human activities on climate, anu the sensitivity of
climate to those emissions. This iepoit uesciibes piojecteu changes in Belawaie's climate
unuei two possible scenaiios: a highei scenaiio in which fossil fuels continue to pioviue
most of humankinu's eneigy neeus, anu a lowei scenaiio in which global caibon emissions
peak within a few uecaues, then begin to uecline.
Futuie piojections aie baseu on simulations fiom two gioups of global climate mouels: the
oluei mouels useu in the Noitheast Climate Impacts Assessment (Fiumhoff et al., 2uu7),
the Seconu 0.S. National Climate Assessment (0SuCRP, 2uu9), anu the Inteigoveinmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Thiiu anu Fouith Assessment Repoits; anu the newei set
of mouels useu in the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Repoit anu Thiiu 0.S. National
Climate Assessment.
ulobal mouel piojections weie tianslateu uown to the local scale using a statistical
uownscaling mouel. This mouel ielates simulateu vaiiability anu changes in laige-scale
climate to obseiveu conuitions at 14 long-teim weathei stations in Belawaie, then uses
these ielationships to estimate how global climate change might affect local conuitions in
the futuie.
Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on a given location is a challenging task.
Futuie piojections aie unceitain, uue to the challenges inheient to pieuicting human
behavioui; unueistanuing the iesponse of the eaith's climate to heat-tiapping gases
piouuceu by human activities; anu pieuicting the vaiiability of natuial cycles within the
eaith system that have a stiong influence on local climate.
Although challenging, it is impoitant to assess climate impacts because the infoimation
geneiateu can be valuable to long-teim planning oi policies. Nuch of cuiient infiastiuctuie
anu othei human anu natuial systems aie pieuicateu on the assumption of a ielatively
stable climate. If climate is no longei stable, these systems will have to auapt. Auaptation
can be costly, but planning aheau can ieuuce these costs. Foi example, piojecteu changes in
heating oi cooling uegiee-uays can be incoipoiateu into new builuing coues oi eneigy
policy. Shifts in the timing anu availability of stieamflow can be useu to ieuistiibute watei

8
allocations oi as incentive foi conseivation piogiams. Piojecteu changes in giowing season
anu pest ianges can infoim ciop ieseaich anu agiicultuial piactices.
The infoimation geneiateu by this analysis, anu summaiizeu in this iepoit, is intenueu to
infoim such stuuies foi the state of Belawaie anu ielevant sectois by pioviuing state-of-
the-ait climate piojections that can be incoipoiateu into futuie planning.
Thi s Report
This iepoit uocuments the piojecteu impacts of climate change on a iange of tempeiatuie-
anu piecipitation-ielateu inuicatois foi the state of Belawaie. Piojecteu changes covei a
iange of futuie scenaiios anu vaiiables, incluuing infoimation ielevant to agiicultuie,
ecosystems anu natuial iesouices, eneigy use, infiastiuctuie anu tianspoitation, public
health, anu watei iesouices.
Section 2 uesciibes the uata, scenaiios, anu global climate mouels, anu explains the
statistical uownscaling mouel useu to geneiate high-iesolution piojections foi the
inuiviuual weathei stations. It also pioviues guiuance on unueistanuing anu inteipieting
the iange of unceitainty in futuie piojections.
Futuie piojections aie summaiizeu foi thiee futuie time peiious, ielative to a histoiical
baseline of 1981-2u1u: neai futuie (2u2u-2uS9), miu-centuiy (2u4u-2uS9) anu late
centuiy (2u8u-2u99). Section S uiscusses aveiage annual anu seasonal tempeiatuie anu
tempeiatuie extiemes. Section 4 uesciibes piojecteu changes in measuies of seasonal
piecipitation, uiought, anu heavy piecipitation. Section S exploies piojecteu impacts on
inuicatois that combine tempeiatuie, piecipitation, anuoi humiuity. Section 6 concluues
with a uiscussion of the implications of climate change foi Belawaie.
Piojections shown in figuies anu uiscusseu in the text aie aveiageu acioss all of the latest
geneiation of CNIPS climate mouels foi inuiviuual scenaiios: highei (RCP 8.S) anu lowei
(RCP 4.S). Piojecteu changes aie consistent acioss all 14 stations; unless otheiwise
inuicateu, plotteu values coiiesponu to the 14-station aveiage. Piojections foi the oluei
CNIPS mouels anu SRES highei (A1fi) anu lowei (B1) scenaiios aie pioviueu in the Excel
appenuix that accompanies this iepoit. All figuies incluue the unceitainty that iesults fiom
using multiple climate mouels. Foi CNIPS climate mouels (not shown heie), unceitainty
was uefineu by the uiffeience between the highest anu lowest mouel piojection foi each
scenaiio anu time peiiou. Foi CNIPS climate mouels, since theie aie moie of them,
unceitainty was uefineu by the stanuaiu ueviation of the all-mouel ensemble unless the
uistiibution was significantly non-noimal, oi skeweu, in which case the highest oi lowest
mouel piojection was useu to uefine the iange insteau.

9
SECTI 0N 2
E.>.F 6CEGH/F .DE 6G>*CE/

This section uesciibes the specific uatasets anu methous useu to assess piojecteu changes
in Belawaie climate in iesponse to human-inuuceu global climate change. These uatasets,
mouels anu methous incluue futuie scenaiios, global climate mouels, long-teim station
iecoius, anu a statistical uownscaling mouel. These methous iepiesent upuateu veisions of
those useu in the 2uu7 Noitheast Climate Impact Assessment (Fiumhoff et al., 2uu7) anu
the Seconu 0.S. National Climate Assessment, "ulobal Climate Change Impacts in the 0niteu
States" (0SuCRP, 2uu9), anu aie consistent with those useu in the Climate Science section
of the upcoming Thiiu 0.S. National Climate Assessment (Walsh et al., 2u14).
Hi st ori cal and Fut ure Cl i mat e Scenari os
1h|s ana|ys|s uses the kC 8.S (h|gher) and 4.S (|ower) concentrat|on pathways and SkLS A1f| (h|gher)
and 81 (|ower) em|ss|on scenar|os. 1hese scenar|os were chosen because they cover a broad range of
p|aus|b|e futures |n terms of human em|ss|ons of CC
2
, Cn
4
, and other rad|at|ve|y act|ve spec|es and
the|r resu|t|ng |mpacts on c||mate. kesu|ts shown |n th|s report are based on the newer kC scenar|os
on|y. kesu|ts from both the kC and SkLS scenar|os are prov|ded |n the Lxce| append|x that
accompan|es th|s report.
In histoiical climate mouel simulations, climate each yeai is affecteu by exteinal foicings oi
climate uiiveis. These exteinal climate uiiveis incluue atmospheiic levels of gieenhouse
gases, solai iauiation, anu volcanic eiuptions that aie consistent with obseiveu values foi
each yeai of the simulation. The histoiical foicings useu by the global climate mouel (uCN)
simulations in this pioject aie the Coupleu Nouel Inteicompaiison Pioject's "2uth Centuiy
Climate in Coupleu Nouels" oi 2uCSN total foicing scenaiios (Neehl et al. 2uu7; Tayloi et
al., 2u12). These simulations pioviue the closest appioximation to actual climate foicing
fiom the beginning of the histoiical simulation to the yeai 2uuu foi the oluei CNIPS
mouels, anu the yeai 2uuS foi the newei CNIPS simulations. Wheie multiple 2uCSN
simulations weie available, the fiist was useu heie ("iun 1" foi CNIPS anu "i1i1p1" foi
CNIPS) unless complete uaily outputs weie not available foi that simulation, in which case
the next available was useu.
The histoiical simulation pioviues the staiting conuitions foi futuie simulations. To ensuie
the accuiacy of the histoiical total foicing scenaiios, it is customaiy in the climate moueling
community foi histoiical simulations to enu at least S yeais befoie piesent. So although
most CNIPS uCN simulations weie ieleaseu well aftei 2uuu, the CNIPS histoiical total-

10
foicing scenaiio enus in 1999, anu "futuie" scenaiios begin in 2uuu. Similaily, the CNIPS
histoiical scenaiio enus in 2uuS, anu "futuie" scenaiios begin in 2uu6. In the futuie
scenaiios, most exteinal natuial climate uiiveis aie fixeu, anu human emissions
coiiesponu to a iange of plausible pathways iathei than obseiveu values.
Futuie scenaiios uepenu on a myiiau of factois, incluuing how human societies anu
economies will uevelop ovei the coming uecaues; what technological auvances aie
expecteu; which eneigy souices will be useu in the futuie to geneiate electiicity, powei
tianspoitation, anu seive inuustiy; anu how all these choices will affect futuie emissions
fiom human activities.
To auuiess these questions, in 2uuu the IPCC uevelopeu a seiies of scenaiios uesciibeu in
the 12#()$/ 3#2-"% -* 4,)&&)-*& 1(#*$")-& (SRES; Nakicenovic et al., 2uuu). These scenaiios
uesciibe inteinally consistent pathways of futuie societal uevelopment anu coiiesponuing
emissions. The caibon emissions anu global tempeiatuie change that iesult fiom the SRES
scenaiios aie shown in I'9=&) J (left).
At the highei enu of the iange, the SRES highei-emissions oi fossil fuel-intensive scenaiio
(A1FI oi A1fi, foi 5-&&)/6)*%#*&)7#) iepiesents a woilu with fossil fuel-intensive economic
giowth anu a global population that peaks miu-centuiy anu then ueclines. New anu moie
efficient technologies aie intiouuceu towaiu the enu of the centuiy. In this scenaiio,
atmospheiic C02 concentiations ieach 94u paits pei million by 21uu, moie than tiiple
pieinuustiial levels of 28u ppm. At the lowei enu, the SRES lowei-emissions scenaiio (B1)
also iepiesents a woilu with high economic giowth anu a global population that peaks
miu-centuiy anu then ueclines. Bowevei, this scenaiio incluues a shift to less fossil fuel-
intensive inuustiies anu the intiouuction of clean anu moie iesouice-efficient technologies.
Emissions of gieenhouse gases peak aiounu miu-centuiy anu then uecline. Atmospheiic
C02 levels ieach SSu paits pei million by 21uu, about uouble pie-inuustiial levels.
Associateu tempeiatuie changes by enu of centuiy iange fiom 4 to 9
o
F baseu on the best
estimate of climate sensitivity.
Foi this pioject, climate piojections weie baseu on the A1FI highei (uaik ieu) anu B1
(blue) lowei scenaiios. Because of the uecision of IPCC Woiking uioup 1 to focus on the A2,
A1B anu B1 scenaiios, only foui uCNs hau A1FI scenaiios available. Foi othei mouels, uaily
outputs weie not available foi all scenaiios. >#K4) J, in the next section on 34,K#4 B4';#$)
6,0)4:, summaiizes the combinations of uCN simulations anu emission scenaiios useu in
this woik.
In 2u1u, the IPCC ieleaseu a new set of scenaiios, calleu 3#2"#&#*%$%)7# 8-*(#*%"$%)-*
9$%:;$+& (RCPs; Noss et al., 2u1u). In contiast to the SRES scenaiios, the RCPs aie
expiesseu in teims of C02 concentiations in the atmospheie, iathei than uiiect emissions.
The RCP scenaiios aie also nameu in teims of theii change in iauiative foicing (in watts pei
metei squaieu) by enu of centuiy: +8.S Wm
2
anu +4.S Wm
2
. RCP scenaiios can be

11
conveiteu "backwaius," into the iange of emissions consistent with a given concentiation
tiajectoiy, using a caibon cycle mouel, so they can be uiiectly compaieu with SRES
emissions (I'9=&) J, centei). Foui RCP scenaiios weie uevelopeu to span a plausible iange
of futuie C02 concentiations, fiom lowei to highei. At the highei enu of the iange,
atmospheiic C02 levels unuei the RCP 8.S scenaiio ieaches moie than 9uu paits pei million
by 21uu. At the lowest, unuei RCP 2.6, policy actions to ieuuce C02 emissions <#/-; =#"-
befoie the enu of the centuiy (i.e. to the point wheie humans aie iesponsible foi a net
uptake of C02 fiom the atmospheie) keeps atmospheiic C02 levels below 4Su paits pei
million by 21uu. Associateu tempeiatuie changes by late centuiy iange fiom 2 to 8
o
F,
baseu on the best estimate of climate sensitivity. In this analysis, climate piojections weie
baseu on the RCP 8.S highei (uaik ieu) anu 4.S lowei (blue) scenaiios, because these most
closely match the SRES A1fi anu B1 scenaiios.
As uiveise as they aie, neithei the SRES noi the RCP scenaiios covei the entiie iange of
possible futuies. Since 2uuu, C02 emissions have alieauy been incieasing at an aveiage iate
of S peicent pei yeai. If they continue at this iate, emissions will eventually outpace even
the highest of the SRES anu RCP scenaiios (I'9=&) J, iight; Raupach et al., 2uu7; Nyhie et
al., 2uu9). 0n the othei hanu, significant ieuuctions in emissionson the oiuei of 8u
peicent by 2uSu, as alieauy manuateu by vaiious oiganizations anu iegions in the 0niteu
States, incluuing the state of Califoiniahave the potential to ultimately ieuuce C02 levels
below the lowei B1 emission scenaiio (Neinhausen et al., 2uu6). Nonetheless, the
substantial uiffeience between the highei anu lowei scenaiios useu heie pioviues a goou
illustiation of the potential iange of changes that coulu be expecteu, anu how much these
uepenu on futuie emissions anu human choices.
S8LS (2000) 8C (2010) AC1uAL

I|gure 1. 1here are Lwo famllles of fuLure scenarlos: Lhe 2000 Speclal 8eporL on Lmlsslon Scenarlos (S8LS) and Lhe
2010 8epresenLaLlve ConcenLraLlon aLhways (8C). 1hls flgure compares Lhe S8LS (lefL), 8C (cenLer), and observed
hlsLorlcal annual carbon emlsslons (rlghL) ln glgaLons of carbon (CLC). AL Lhe Lop end of Lhe range, Lhe S8LS and 8C
scenarlos are very slmllar. AL Lhe boLLom end of Lhe range, Lhe 8C 2.6 scenarlo ls much lower, because lL lncludes Lhe
opLlon of uslng pollcles Lo reduce carbon emlsslons, whlle S8LS scenarlos do noL.

12
Gl obal Cl i mat e Model s
1h|s ana|ys|s uses s|mu|at|ons from four d|fferent CMI3 g|oba| c||mate mode|s, and n|ne d|fferent
CMIS g|oba| c||mate mode|s. Most of the resu|ts d|scussed |n th|s report are based on CMIS
s|mu|at|ons on|y. ro[ect|ons correspond|ng to the fu|| set of CMI3 and CMIS mode|s are prov|ded |n
the Lxce| append|x that accompan|es th|s report.
Futuie scenaiios aie useu as input to uCNs, which aie complex, thiee-uimensional coupleu
mouels that incoipoiate the latest scientific unueistanuing of the atmospheie, oceans, anu
eaith's suiface. As output, uCNs piouuce geogiaphic giiu-baseu piojections of
tempeiatuie, piecipitation, anu othei climate vaiiables anu uaily anu monthly scales. These
physical mouels weie oiiginally known as atmospheie-ocean geneial ciiculation mouels
(A0-uCNs). Bowevei, many of the newest geneiation of mouels aie now moie accuiately
uesciibeu as global climate mouels (uCNs) as they incoipoiate auuitional aspects of the
eaith's climate system beyonu atmospheiic anu oceanic uynamics.
Because of theii complexity, uCNs aie constantly being enhanceu as scientific
unueistanuing of climate impioves anu as computational powei incieases. Some mouels
aie moie successful than otheis at iepiouucing obseiveu climate anu tienus ovei the past
centuiy (e.g., Ranuall et al., 2uu7). Bowevei, all futuie simulations agiee that both global
anu iegional tempeiatuies will inciease ovei the coming centuiy in iesponse to incieasing
emissions of gieenhouse gases fiom human activities (IPCC, 2u1S).
Bistoiical uCN simulations aie initializeu fiom stationaiy "contiol" simulations in the late
18uus. 0vei time, they aie alloweu to uevelop theii own pattein of natuial chaotic
vaiiability. This means that, although the climatological means of histoiical simulations
shoulu coiiesponu to obseivations at the continental to global scale, no tempoial
coiiesponuence between mouel simulations anu obseivations shoulu be expecteu on a
uay-to-uay oi even yeai-to-yeai basis. Foi example, although a stiong El Nio event
occuiieu fiom 1997 to 1998 in the ieal woilu, it may not occui in a mouel simulation in
that yeai. 0vei seveial uecaues, howevei, the aveiage numbei of simulateu El Nio events
shoulu be similai to those obseiveu. Similaily, although the cential 0niteu States suffeieu
the effects of an unusually intense heat wave uuiing summei 199S, mouel simulations foi
199S might show that yeai as aveiage oi even coolei than aveiage. Bowevei, a similaily
intense heat wave is simulateu by most mouels some time uuiing the Su-yeai
climatological peiiou centeieu aiounu 199S (Bayhoe et al., 2u1ub).
This stuuy uses two sets of global climate mouel simulations aichiveu by the Piogiam foi
Climate Nouel Inteicompaiison anu Biagnosis (PCNBI). The fiist set of climate mouel
simulations, assembleu between 2uuS anu 2uu6, consists of mouels that contiibuteu to
phase S of the Coupleu Nouel Inteicompaiison Pioject (CNIPS; Neehl et al., 2uu7). These
aie the iesults piesenteu in the IPCC Thiiu anu Fouith Assessment Repoits anu useu in the
Noitheast Climate Impacts Assessment (Fiumhoff et al., 2uu7) anu the Seconu 0.S. National
Climate Assessment (0SuCRP, 2uu9).

13
1ab|e 1. CMl3 and CMl3 global cllmaLe modellng groups and Lhelr models used ln Lhls analysls. 1hose marked
wlLh a (
+
) have only 360 days per year. All oLher models archlved full dally Llme serles from 1960 Lo 2099 (for
CMl3 slmulaLlons) and 1930 Lo 2100 (for CMl3 slmulaLlons).
Cr|g|n CMI3
mode|(s)
CMI3
scenar|os
CMIS
mode|(s)
CMIS
scenar|o(s)
naLlonal CenLer for ALmospherlc
8esearch, uSA
CCSM3
CM
A1ll, 81
A1ll, 81
CCSM4

4.3, 8.3
CenLre naLlonal de 8echerches
MeLeorologlques, lrance
Cn8M-CM3 4.3, 8.3
CommonwealLh SclenLlflc and lndusLrlal
8esearch CrganlsaLlon, AusLralla
CSl8C-Mk3.6.0 4.3, 8.3
Ceophyslcal lluld uynamlcs LaboraLory,
uSA
CluL CM2.1 A1ll, 81 - -
Max lanck lnsLlLuLe for MeLeorology,
Cermany
Ml-LSM-L8 4.3, 8.3
uk MeLeorologlcal Cfflce Padley CenLre PadCM3
+
A1ll, 81 PadCLM2-CC^
+
4.3, 8.3
lnsLlLuLe for numerlcal MaLhemaLlcs,
8usslan
lnMCM4 4.3, 8.3
lnsLlLuL lerre Slmon Laplace, lrance lSL-CM3A-L8 4.3, 8.3
Agency for Marlne-LarLh Sclence and
1echnology, ALmosphere and Ccean
8esearch lnsLlLuLe, and naLlonal lnsLlLuLe
for LnvlronmenLal SLudles, !apan
Ml8CC3 4.3, 8.3
MeLeorologlcal 8esearch lnsLlLuLe, !apan M8l-CCCM3 4.3, 8.3

The CNIPS uCN simulations useu in this pioject consist of all mouel outputs aichiveu by
PCNBI with uaily maximum anu minimum tempeiatuie anu piecipitation foi the SRES A1fi
anu B1 scenaiios. Auuitional simulations weie obtaineu fiom the aichives of the
ueophysical Fluiu Bynamics Laboiatoiy, the National Centei foi Atmospheiic Reseaich,
anu the 0.K. Neteoiological 0ffice. The list of uCNs useu, theii oiigin, the scenaiios
available foi each, anu the time peiious coveieu by theii output aie given in >#K4) J.
Fiom 2u11 thiough the enu of 2u12, PCNBI began to collect anu aichive new CNIPS
simulations that aie useu in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Repoit (Tayloi et al., 2u12). The
CNIPS anu CNIPS aichives aie similai in that most of the same inteinational moueling
gioups contiibuteu to both. Both pioviue uaily, monthly, anu yeaily output fiom climate
mouel simulations uiiven by a wiue iange of futuie scenaiios. Bowevei, the aichives aie
also uiffeient fiom each othei in thiee key ways. 0vei half of the CNIPS mouels aie new
veisions oi upuates of pievious CNIPS mouels, but a laige numbei of CNIPS mouels aie
entiiely new. Some of the CNIPS mouels aie "Eaith System Nouels" that incluue both
tiauitional components of the CNIPS Atmospheie-0cean ueneial Ciiculation Nouels as
well as new components such as atmospheiic chemistiy oi uynamic vegetation. Seconu, the

14
CNIPS simulations use the RCP scenaiios as input foi futuie simulations, while the CNIPS
simulations use the SRES scenaiios as input (I'9=&) J). Thiiu, the CNIPS aichive contains
many moie output fielus than the CNIPS aichive uiu.
Although the CNIPS aichive contains simulations fiom moie than 4u mouels, a much
smallei subset (only 16 inuiviuual mouels, fiom 1S moueling gioups) aichiveu uaily
tempeiatuie anu piecipitation foi both the RCP 8.S anu 4.S scenaiios anu even fewei of
these mouels (9, total) iepiesenteu upuateu veisions of mouels alieauy available in the
CNIPS aichive. The CNIPS uCN simulations useu in this pioject consist of outputs fiom
these 9 uCNs that have continuous uaily maximum anu minimum tempeiatuie anu
piecipitation outputs available foi histoiical anu the RCP 8.S anu 4.S futuie scenaiios. No
auuitional simulations weie obtaineu fiom inuiviuual moueling gioup aichives. The full list
of CNIPS uCNs useu, theii oiigin, the scenaiios available foi each, anu the time peiious
coveieu by theii output aie given in >#K4) J.
The uCNs useu in this stuuy weie chosen baseu on seveial ciiteiia. Fiist, only well
establisheu mouels weie consiueieu, those alieauy extensively uesciibeu anu evaluateu in
the peei-ievieweu scientific liteiatuie. Nouels must have been evaluateu anu shown to
auequately iepiouuce key featuies of the atmospheie anu ocean system. Seconu, the
mouels hau to incluue the gieatei pait of the IPCC iange of unceitainty in climate
sensitivity (1.S to 4.S
o
C; IPCC, 2u1S). Climate sensitivity is uefineu as the tempeiatuie
change iesulting fiom a uoubling of atmospheiic C02 concentiations ielative to pie-
inuustiial times, aftei the atmospheie has hau uecaues to aujust to the change. In othei
woius, climate sensitivity ueteimines the extent to which tempeiatuies will iise unuei a
given inciease in atmospheiic concentiations of gieenhouse gases (Knutti & Begeil, 2uu8).
The thiiu anu last ciiteiion is that the mouels chosen must have continuous uaily time
seiies of tempeiatuie anu piecipitation aichiveu foi the scenaiios useu heie (SRES A1FI
anu B1; RCP 8.S anu 4.S). The uCNs selecteu foi this analysis aie the only mouels that meet
these ciiteiia.
Foi some iegions of the woilu (incluuing the Aictic, but not the continental 0niteu States)
theie is some eviuence that mouels bettei able to iepiouuce iegional climate featuies may
piouuce uiffeient futuie piojections (e.g. 0veilanu et al., 2u11). Such chaiacteiistics
incluue laige-scale ciiculation featuies oi feeuback piocesses that can be iesolveu at the
scale of a global mouel. Bowevei, it is not valiu to evaluate a global mouel on its ability to
iepiouuce high-iesolution local suiface climate featuies, such as the bias in tempeiatuie
ovei a given city oi iegion. Such limitations aie to be expecteu in any uCN, because they
aie piimaiily the iesult of a lack of spatial iesolution iathei than any inheient shoitcoming
in the physics of the mouel. Beie, no attempt was maue to select a subset of uCNs that
peifoimeu bettei than otheis, because pievious liteiatuie has showeu that it is uifficult, if
not impossible, to iuentify such a subset foi the continental 0niteu States (e.g. Knutti, 2u1u;
Ranuall et al. 2uu7).

13
St at i st i cal Downscal i ng Model
1h|s ana|ys|s uses the stat|st|ca| Asynchronous keg|ona| kegress|on Mode| (AkkM) to generate h|gh-reso|ut|on
pro[ect|ons for |nd|v|dua| weather stat|ons. It was se|ected because |t can reso|ve the ta||s of the d|str|but|on of
da||y temperature and prec|p|tat|on to a greater extent than the more common|y used De|ta and 8CSD methods,
but |s |ess t|me-|ntens|ve and therefore ab|e to generate more outputs as compared to a h|gh-reso|ut|on reg|ona|
c||mate mode|.
uCN simulations iequiie months of computing time, effectively limiting the typical giiu cell
sizes of the mouels to 1 oi moie uegiees of latituue anu longituue pei siue. Anu although
the mouels aie piecise to this scale, they aie actually skillful, oi accuiate, to an even coaisei
scale (uiotch & NacCiacken, 1991). This means that they cannot accuiately captuie the
fine-scale changes expeiienceu at the iegional to local scale.
Bynamical anu statistical uownscaling iepiesent two complementaiy ways to incoipoiate
highei-iesolution infoimation into uCN simulations in oiuei to obtain local- to iegional-
scale climate piojections. Bynamical uownscaling, often iefeiieu to as iegional climate
moueling, uses a limiteu-aiea, high-iesolution mouel to simulate physical climate piocesses
at the iegional scale, with giiu cells typically ianging fiom 1u to Sukm pei siue. Statistical
uownscaling mouels captuie histoiical ielationships between laige-scale weathei featuies
anu local climate, anu use these to tianslate futuie piojections uown to the scale of any
obseivationsheie, both inuiviuual weathei stations as well as a iegulai giiu.
Statistical mouels aie geneially flexible anu less computationally uemanuing than iegional
climate mouels, able to use a bioau iange of uCN inputs to simulate futuie changes in
tempeiatuie anu piecipitation foi a continuous peiiou coveiing moie than a centuiy.
Bence, statistical uownscaling mouels aie best suiteu foi analyses that iequiie a iange of
futuie piojections that ieflect the unceitainty in futuie scenaiios anu climate sensitivity, at
the scale of obseivations that may alieauy be useu foi planning puiposes. If the stuuy is
moie of a sensitivity analysis, wheie using one oi two futuie simulations is not a limitation,
oi if it iequiies multiple suiface anu uppei-aii climate vaiiables as input (anu has a
geneious buuget), then iegional climate moueling may be moie appiopiiate.
In this pioject we useu a ielatively new statistical uownscaling mouel, the Asynchionous
Regional Regiession Nouel, oi ARRN (Stonei et al., 2u12). ARRN uses asynchionous
quantile iegiession, oiiginally uevelopeu by Koenkei anu Bassett (1978), to estimate
conuitional quantiles of the iesponse vaiiable in econometiics. Bettingei et al. (2uu4) was
the fiist to apply this statistical technique to climate piojections to examine simulateu
hyuiologic iesponses to climate vaiiations anu change, as well as to heat-ielateu impacts
on health (Bayhoe et al., 2uu4), anu subsequent veisions of this algoiithm weie useu in the
city-scale piojections foi the Noitheast Climate Impacts Assessment (Fiumhoff et al., 2uu7)
anu the Chicago Climate Action Plan (Bayhoe et al., 2u1ua).
ARRN expanus on these oiiginal applications by auuing (1) mouifications specifically
aimeu at impioving the ability of the mouel to simulate the shape of the uistiibution,

16
incluuing the tails, (2) piecewise iathei than lineai iegiession to accuiately captuie the
often non-lineai ielationship between moueleu anu obseiveu quantiles, anu (S) bias
coiiection at the tails of the uistiibution. It is a flexible anu computationally efficient
statistical mouel that can uownscale station-baseu oi giiuueu uaily values of any vaiiable
that can be tiansfoimeu into an appioximately symmetiic uistiibution anu foi which a
laige-scale pieuictoi exists. A quantile iegiession mouel is ueiiveu foi each inuiviuual giiu
cell oi weathei station that tiansfoims histoiical mouel simulations into a piobability
uistiibution that closely iesembles histoiical obseivations (I'9=&) L, left). This mouel can
then be useu to tiansfoim futuie mouel simulations into uistiibutions similai to those
obseiveu (I'9=&) L, iight). This example illustiates how futuie tempeiatuies aie likely to
become waimei (as the oiange anu ieu futuie uistiibutions shifts towaius the iight-hanu
siue of the black histoiical uistiibution), as well as how what is cuiiently consiueieu to be
extieme heat is likely to become moie fiequent (as eviuenceu by the bioauing of the futuie
uistiibutions, meaning that theie will be piopoitionally moie uays pei yeai above
histoiical high tempeiatuie peicentiles).

I|gure 2. (a) Cbserved (black) and hlsLorlcal (blue, green,
and purple) slmulaLed dlsLrlbuLlon of dally maxlmum
summer LemperaLures by Lhree CCMs for a weaLher
sLaLlon ln Chlcago for evaluaLlon perlod 1980-1999.
(b) PlsLorlcal slmulaLed (black) and fuLure pro[ecLed dally
maxlmum summer LemperaLure under Lhe S8LS A1ll hlgher (red)
and 81 lower (orange) emlsslon scenarlos, averaged across all
Lhree CCMs.

Both statistical anu uynamical uownscaling mouels aie baseu on a numbei of assumptions,
some shaieu, some unique to each methou. Two impoitant shaieu assumptions aie the
following: fiist, that the inputs ieceiveu fiom uCNs aie ieasonablethat is, that they
auequately captuie the laige-scale ciiculation of the atmospheie anu ocean at the skillful
scale of the global mouel; anu seconu, that the infoimation fiom the uCN fully incoipoiates
the climate change signal ovei that iegion. Statistical mouels aie also sensitive to a ciucial
assumption often iefeiieu to as '0*0+")*%+02. Stationaiity assumes that the ielationship
between laige-scale weathei systems anu local climate will iemain constant ovei time. This
assumption may be valiu foi lessei amounts of change, but coulu leau to biases unuei
laigei amounts of climate change (viac et al., 2uu7).

17
In a sepaiate pioject, we aie cuiiently evaluating the stationaiity of thiee uownscaling
methous, incluuing the ARRN methou useu heie. Pieliminaiy analyses show that the
assumption of stationaiity holus tiue in ARRN ovei much of the woilu foi both
tempeiatuie anu piecipitation. The only situation wheie ARRN peifoimance appeais to be
systematically non-stationaiy (i.e., ielationships baseu on histoiical obseivations anu
simulations uo not holu tiue in the futuie) is at extiemely high tempeiatuies (at anu above
the 99.9
th
quantile) along coastal aieas, wheie we can see waim biases that inciease as
tempeiatuies become moie extieme. This may be uue to the statistical mouel's inability to
captuie uynamical changes in the stiength of the lanu-sea bieeze as the tempeiatuie
uiffeiences between lanu anu ocean aie exaceibateu unuei climate change; the oiigins of
this featuie aie cuiiently unuei investigation.
This bias helps to inteipiet the piojecteu changes in high tempeiatuies geneiateu foi
Belawaie. Seveial of the station locations useu in this stuuy woulu be consiueieu coastal.
Estimateu changes in uays hottei than the 1-in-1uu hottest histoiical uay (e.g., the
histoiical ~S to 4 hottest uays of the yeai) may be subject to tempeiatuie biases that
inciease in magnituue. Foi the 1-in-1uuu hottest uays (e.g. the hottest uay in S yeais),
biases may be as laige as the piojecteu changes in the tempeiatuie of those uays by enu of
centuiy unuei a highei emissions scenaiio.
St at i on Observat i ons
1h|s pro[ect uses |ong-term stat|on data from the G|oba| n|stor|ca| C||mato|ogy Network and the Nat|ona|
C||mat|c Data Center Co-op Cbserv|ng Network, supp|emented w|th add|t|ona| stat|on data prov|ded by the
De|aware State C||mato|og|st. A|| stat|on data was qua||ty-contro||ed to remove poss|b|y erroneous data po|nts
before be|ng used to tra|n the stat|st|ca| downsca||ng mode|.
Long-teim weathei station iecoius weie obtaineu fiom the ulobal Bistoiical Climatology
Netwoik (uBCN)
S
anu supplementeu with auuitional iecoius fiom the National Climatic
Bata Centei coopeiative obseivei piogiam (NCBC-C00P)
4
anu the State Climatologist foi
Belawaie (B. Leatheis, 2#"&> (-,,>).
To tiain a statistical uownscaling mouel, the obseiveu iecoiu must be of auequate length
anu quality. To appiopiiately sample fiom the iange of natuial climate vaiiability at most
of the station locations, anu to piouuce iobust iesults without oveifitting, each station in
the analysis was iequiieu to have a minimum of 2u consecutive yeais of uaily obseivations
oveilapping uCN outputs with less than Su peicent missing uata aftei quality contiol.
When these limits weie applieu, theie weie 14 usable stations available foi with uaily
maximum anu minimum tempeiatuie anu piecipitation available. The latituue, longituue,
anu station names of these weathei stations aie pioviueu in >#K4) L anu aie plotteu in
I'9=&) M.

S
uBCN uata is available online at: http:www.ncuc.noaa.govoaclimateghcn-uaily
4
NCBC-C00P uata is available online at: http:www.ncuc.noaa.govlanu-baseu-station-uatacoopeiative-
obseivei-netwoik-coop

18
Although uBCN station uata unueigo
stanuaiuizeu quality contiol (Buiie et al., 2uu8),
all station uata weie auuitionally filteieu using a
quality contiol algoiithm to iuentify anu iemove
eiioneous values pieviously iuentifieu in the
uBCN uatabase. The quality contiol piocess
consists of two steps: fiist, inuiviuual quality
contiol foi each station; anu seconu, a neaiest
neighboi appioach to valiuate outlieis iuentifieu
ielative to the climatology of each month.
Inuiviuual quality contiol iuentifieu anu ieplaceu
with "NA" any values wheie:
1. Baily minimum tempeiatuie exceeueu the
iepoiteu maximum.
2. values lay outsiue the iange of iecoiueu
values foi the continental 0niteu States (-Su to
7u
o
C, u to 91Smm in 2S houis).
S. Noie than five consecutive uays hau iuentical
tempeiatuie oi non-zeio piecipitation values to
the fiist uecimal place.
In the seconu step of the quality contiol piocess, up to 1u "neaiest neighbois" foi each
inuiviuual weathei station weie queiieu to see if the uays with anomalously high anu low
values weie also uays in which anomalous values occuiieu at the neighboiing station, plus
oi minus one uay on eithei siue to account foi weathei systems that may be moving
thiough the aiea close to miunight. The iesulting files weie then scanneu to iuentify any
stations with less than S,6Su ieal values anu less than 2uu values foi any given month.
Uncertainty
The piimaiy challenge in climate impact analyses is the ieliability of futuie infoimation. A
common axiom wains that the only aspect of the futuie that can be pieuicteu with any
ceitainty is the fact that it is impossible to uo so. Bowevei, in the case of climate change, we
uo know one thing: futuie climate will not be the same as it is touay. That is why it is
impoitant to incoipoiate piojecteu climate changes into long-teim planning.
Although it is not possible to 2"#.)(% the futuie, it is possible to 2"-?#(% it> Piojections can
uesciibe what woulu be likely to occui unuei a set of consistent anu cleaily aiticulateu
assumptions. Foi climate change impacts, these assumptions shoulu encompass a bioau
vaiiety of the ways in which eneigy, population, uevelopment, anu technology might
change in the futuie.

I|gure 3. 1hls reporL generaLed fuLure pro[ecLlons for
14 weaLher sLaLlons ln uelaware wlLh long-Lerm
hlsLorlcal records. WeaLher sLaLlons LhaL dld noL have
sufflclenLly long and/or compleLe observaLlonal
records Lo provlde an adequaLe sampllng of observed
cllmaLe varlablllLy aL Lhelr locaLlons were ellmlnaLed
from Lhls analysls.

19

Station Name Latituue Longituue Beginning of Recoiu uBCN IB
Beai S9.S917 -7S.7S2S Api 2uuS 0SCuuu712uu
Biiugeville S8.7S -7S.6167 }an 189S 0SCuuu71SSu
Bovei S9.2S8S -7S.S167 }an 189S 0SCuuu727Su
ueoigetown S8.6SSS -7S.4S Sept 1946 0SCuuu7SS7u
uieenwoou S8.8161 -7S.S761 }an 1986 0SCuuu7SS9S
Lewes S8.77S6 -7S.1S89 Feb 194S 0SCuuu7SS2u
Niuuletown S9.4S -7S.6667 Sept 19S2 0SCuuu7S8S2
Nilfoiu S8.898S -7S.42S Nay 189S 0SCuuu7S91S
Newaik 0niveisity Faim S9.6694 -7S.7S14 Api 1894 0SCuuu7641u
Selbyville S8.4667 -7S.2167 }an 19S4 0SCuuu78269
Wilmington Poitei S9.77S9 -7S.S414 }an 19S2 0SCuuu796uS
Bovei AFB S9.1SSS -7S.4667 }ul 1946 0SWuuu1S7u7
ueoigetown Sussex Aiipoit S8.6892 -7S.SS92 Feb 194S 0SWuuu1S764
Wilmington New Castle Aiipoit S9.6728 -7S.6uu8 }an 1948 0SWuuu1S781
1ab|e 2. LaLlLude, longlLude, and ldenLlflcaLlon numbers for Lhe 14 weaLher sLaLlons used ln Lhls analysls.
Piojections come with a iange of unceitainty. This unceitainty aiises piimaiily uue to thiee
uiffeient causes: (1) natuial vaiiability in the climate system, (2) scientific unceitainty in
pieuicting the iesponse of the eaith's climate system to human-inuuceu change, anu (S)
socioeconomic oi scenaiio unceitainty in pieuicting futuie eneigy choices anu hence
emissions of heat-tiapping gases (Bawkins & Sutton, 2uu9, 2u11).
Futuie piojections will always be limiteu by scientific unueistanuing of the system being
pieuicteu. The eaith's climate is a complex system. It is possible to simulate only those
piocesses that have been obseiveu anu uocumenteu. Cleaily, theie aie othei feeubacks anu
foicing factois at woik that have yet to be uocumenteu. Bence, it is a common tenuency to
assign most of the iange in futuie piojections to mouel, oi scientific, unceitainty. Bowevei,
theie aie othei impoitant souices of unceitainty that must be consiueieu; some even
outweigh mouel unceitainty foi ceitain vaiiables anu timescales.
It is impoitant to note that scenaiio unceitainty is veiy uiffeient, anu entiiely uistinct, fiom
scientific unceitainty in at least two impoitant ways. Fiist, although scientific unceitainty
can be ieuuceu thiough cooiuinateu obseivational piogiams anu impioveu physical

20
moueling, scenaiio unceitainty aiises uue to the funuamental inability to pieuict futuie
changes in human behavioui. It can be ieuuceu only by the passing of time, as ceitain
choices (such as uepletion of a non-ienewable iesouice) can eliminate oi ienuei ceitain
options less likely. Seconu, scientific unceitainty is often chaiacteiizeu by a noimal
uistiibution, wheie the mean value is moie likely than the outlieis. Scenaiio unceitainty,
howevei, hinges piimaiily on whethei oi not the piimaiy emitteis of heat-tiapping gases,
incluuing tiauitionally laige emitteis such as the 0niteu States as well as nations with
iapiuly-giowing contiibutions such as Inuia anu China, will enact binuing legislation to
ieuuce theii emissions oi not. If they uo enact legislation, then the lowei emission
scenaiios become moie piobable. If they uo not, then the highei scenaiios become moie
piobable. The longei such action is uelayeu, the less likely it becomes to achieve a lowei, as
compaieu to a miu-low, scenaiio because of the emissions that continue to accumulate in
the atmospheie. Bence, scenaiio unceitainty cannot be consiueieu to have a noimal
uistiibution. Rathei, the consequences of a lowei veisus a highei emissions scenaiio must
be consiueieu inuepenuently, in oiuei to isolate the iole that human choices aie likely to
play in ueteimining futuie impacts.
The impoitance of each of these thiee souices of unceitainty vaiies ovei time anu space
(I'9=&) N). 0vei ielatively shoit time scales, natuial chaotic vaiiability is the most
impoitant souice of unceitainty. By miu-centuiy, scientific oi mouel unceitainty is the
laigest contiibutoi to the iange in piojecteu tempeiatuie anu piecipitation change. By the
enu of the centuiy, scenaiio unceitainty is most impoitant foi tempeiatuie piojections,
while mouel unceitainty continues as the uominant souice of unceitainty in piecipitation.
This is consistent with the iesults of the piojections uiscusseu in this iepoit, wheie theie is
a significant uiffeience between the changes piojecteu unuei highei veisus lowei scenaiios
foi tempeiatuie-baseu anu heavy piecipitation inuicatois, but little uiffeience foi mean
piecipitation-baseu inuicatois.
Natuial vaiiability, the fiist souice of unceitainty in futuie piojections, can be auuiesseu by
always aveiaging oi otheiwise sampling fiom the statistical uistiibution of futuie
piojections ovei a climatological peiiou - typically, 2u to Su yeais. In othei woius, the
aveiage wintei tempeiatuie shoulu be aveiageu ovei seveial uecaues, as shoulu the
coluest uay of the yeai. No time stamp moie piecise than 2u to Su yeais shoulu evei be
assigneu to any futuie piojection. In this iepoit anu accompanying uata files, simulations
aie always aveiageu ovei multiuecaual, climatological time peiious: histoiical (1981-
2u1u), neai centuiy (2u2u-2uS9), miu-centuiy (2u4u-2uS9) anu late centuiy (2u8u-2u99).
Nouel oi scientific unceitainty, the seconu souice of unceitainty in futuie piojections, can
be auuiesseu by using multiple global climate mouels to simulate the iesponse of the
climate system to human-inuuceu change (heie, the nine newei CNIPS anu foui oluei
CNIPS mouels). As noteu above, the climate mouels useu heie covei a iange of climate

21
sensitivity; they also covei an even wiuei iange of piecipitation piojections, paiticulaily at
the local to iegional scale.
As the statistician ueoige Box famously quippeu, all mouels aie wiong, but some mouels
aie useful. Nultiple stuuies have convincingly uemonstiateu that the aveiage of an
ensemble of simulations fiom a iange of climate mouels (even ones of vaiieu ability) is
geneially closei to ieality than the simulations fiom one inuiviuual moueleven one
ueemeu "goou" when evaluateu on its peifoimance ovei a given iegion (e.g., Weigel et al.,
2u1u; Knutti, 2u1u). 0nly mouels that uemonstiatively fail to iepiouuce the basic featuies
of laige-scale climate uynamics (e.g., the jet stieam oi El Nio) shoulu be eliminateu fiom
consiueiation. Bence, wheievei possible, impacts shoulu be summaiizeu in teims of the
values iesulting fiom multiple climate mouels, while unceitainty estimates can be ueiiveu
fiom the iange oi vaiiance in mouel piojections. This is why most plots in this iepoit show
both multimouel mean values as well as a iange of unceitainty aiounu each value.

I|gure 4. ercenLage of uncerLalnLy ln fuLure LemperaLure pro[ecLlons one decade ln Lhe fuLure (Lop row), four decades ln Lhe
fuLure (mlddle row) and nlne decades ln Lhe fuLure (boLLom row) LhaL can be aLLrlbuLed Lo naLural varlablllLy (lefL column),
model or sclenLlflc uncerLalnLy (cenLer column), and scenarlo uncerLalnLy (rlghL column). Source: Pawklns & SuLLon, 2009.

22
Scenaiio oi human unceitainty, the thiiu anu final piimaiy souice of unceitainty in futuie
piojections, can be auuiesseu thiough geneiating climate piojections foi multiple futuies:
foi example, a "highei emissions" futuie in which the woilu continues to uepenu on fossil
fuels as the piimaiy eneigy souice (SRES A1FI oi RCP 8.S), as compaieu to a "lowei
emissions" futuie focusing on sustainability anu conseivation (SRES B1 oi RCP 4.S).
0vei the next two to thiee uecaues, piojections can be aveiageu acioss scenaiios, because
theie is no significant uiffeience between scenaiios ovei that time fiame uue to the ineitia
of the climate system in iesponuing to changes in heat-tiapping gas levels in the
atmospheie (Stott & Kettleboiough, 2uu2). Past miu-centuiy, howevei, piojections shoulu
nevei be aveiageu acioss scenaiios; iathei, the uiffeience in impacts iesulting fiom a
highei as compaieu to a lowei scenaiio shoulu always be cleaily uelineateu. That is why, in
this iepoit, futuie piojections aie always summaiizeu in teims of what is expecteu foi each
scenaiio inuiviuually.
Foi Belawaie, by late centuiy, scenaiios aie the most impoitant souice of unceitainty in
aveiage tempeiatuie, as well as an impoitant souice of unceitainty foi extieme
tempeiatuie anu piecipitation inuicatois. In contiast, scientific unceitainty, as iepiesenteu
by the vaiious climate mouels, is the most impoitant souice of unceitainty in aveiage
annual anu seasonal piecipitation piojections.
Bownscaling climate piojections fiom global mouels to the scale of inuiviuual weathei
stations intiouuces a fouith souice of unceitainty, that of the statistical mouel useu to
ielate laige-scale weathei patteins to local-scale vaiability. This unceitainty in tuin can be
attiibuteu to thiee uistinct souices: (1) the uegiee to which the limiteu set of obseivations
useu to tiain the statistical methou fail to captuie the laigei iange in possible weathei
conuitions at that location; (2) the inability of the statistical mouel to peifectly iepiouuce
the ielationship between laige-scale weathei anu local conuitions; anu (S) limitations in
the ability of the global climate mouel to simulate iegional conuitions. Impacts on
Belawaie's climate uue to global climate change will be mouifieu by local factois, incluuing
topogiaphy (such as the pioximity of the state to the ocean), small-scale feeuback
piocesses (such as changes in the type of vegetation that giows in Belawaie as climate
changes), anu lanu use (incluuing conveision of foiests to subuibs, oi fielus to foiests), all
of which aie uifficult if not impossible to pieuict; hence, in this analysis, they aie helu fixeu
at cuiient-uay conuitions.

23

SECTI 0N S
>G6OG1.>51GP1GH.>GE QDEQB.>C1/

0bseiveu tempeiatuies acioss Belawaie aie incieasing in all seasons, with ielatively
gieatei incieases in minimum as compaieu to maximum tempeiatuies. Theie have also
been incieases in the fiequency of waim tempeiatuie extiemes, anu uecieases in the
fiequency of colu tempeiatuie extiemes. In the futuie, aveiage tempeiatuie anu
tempeiatuie-ielateu inuicatois acioss the state of Belawaie aie expecteu to continue to
inciease. This section summaiizes the changes in aveiage anu extieme tempeiatuie that
aie piojecteu to occui in iesponse to global climate change.
Annual and Seasonal Temperatures
In the futuie, #((=#4 #8)&#9) $);<)&#$=&) is expecteu to continue to inciease. 0vei the
next few uecaues, piojecteu tempeiatuie changes aie expecteu to be similai iegaiuless of
the scenaiio followeu ovei that time. Theie is no significant uiffeience between
tempeiatuie piojections fiom uiffeient scenaiios ovei the shoit teim foi two ieasons.
Fiist, it takes some time foi the climate system to iesponu to uiffeiences in emissions.
Seconu, emissions among uiffeient scenaiios aie not veiy uiffeient ovei the shoit teim (see
I'9=&) J). This is because of the lags in both socioeconomic anu eneigy systems:
installations of fossil fuel oi ienewable eneigy take yeais to uesign anu builu, anu aie
typically useu foi uecaues. None of the scenaiios consiueieu heie envision a woilu in which
all fossil fuel use coulu be eliminateu within a uecaue oi two. Foi these two ieasons, the
majoiity of the changes that will happen ovei the next few uecaues aie the iesult of heat-
tiapping gas emissions that have alieauy built up in the atmospheie oi aie alieauy entaileu
by oui existing infiastiuctuie.
By miu-centuiy, tempeiatuie incieases aie gieatei unuei a highei scenaiio veisus a lowei,
although the multi-mouel unceitainty iange (i.e., the tempeiatuie change piojecteu by a
given mouel) still oveilaps (I'9=&) R). By late centuiy, the multi-mouel unceitainty iange
foi a highei veisus a lowei scenaiio uoes not oveilap: in othei woius, even the smallest
piojecteu change in tempeiatuie unuei highei scenaiios is gieatei than the laigest
piojecteu change unuei lowei scenaiios. Tempeiatuie incieases aie also gieatei foi latei
time peiious as compaieu to eailiei ones.

24
1LMLkA1UkL CnANGL kLLA1IVL 1C 1981-2010
M
I
N
I
M
U
M

(
N
I
G
n
1
1
I
M
L
)

M
A
k
I
M
U
M

(
D
A
1
I
M
L
)

I|gure S. ro[ecLed absoluLe (lefL) and relaLlve change ln (rlghL) annua| max|mum (dayt|me) and m|n|mum (n|ghtt|me)
temperature compared Lo 1981-2010 average values. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware, based on lndlvldual
pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes under Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln yellow, and pro[ecLlons for Lhe
hlgher scenarlo ln red. 1he black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models.
Specifically, by 2u2u-2uS9, annual maximum (uaytime) tempeiatuie is piojecteu to
inciease by an aveiage of 2 to 2.S
o
F, anu annual minimum (nighttime) tempeiatuie by an
aveiage of 1.S to 2.S
o
F acioss all scenaiios. By miu-centuiy 2u4u-2uS9, incieases unuei the
lowei scenaiio iange fiom 2.S to 4
o
F foi maximum tempeiatuie anu 2 to S.S
o
F foi
minimum tempeiatuie. 0nuei the highei scenaiio, incieases aveiage 4.S
o
F foi both
maximum anu minimum tempeiatuie. By enu of centuiy 2u8u-2u99, piojecteu
tempeiatuie changes aie neaily twice as gieat unuei highei as compaieu to lowei
scenaiios. Naximum tempeiatuie incieases by S.S to S.S
o
F unuei the lowei anu 8 to 9.S
o
F
unuei the highei scenaiio. Ninimum tempeiatuie incieases by S to S
o
F unuei the lowei
anu 8.S to 9.S
o
F unuei the highei scenaiio.
/)#:,(#4 $);<)&#$=&): also show incieases, but at uiffeient iates than the annual
aveiage. In geneial, piojecteu incieases foi spiing anu summei aie gieatei than those
piojecteu foi fall anu wintei (I'9=&) S). By late centuiy, foi example, aveiage tempeiatuie
is piojecteu to inciease by about 4 to 6
o
F unuei a lowei anu 7 to 11
o
F unuei a highei
scenaiio in spiing, anu by S.S to 8
o
F unuei a lowei anu 7 to 1S
o
F unuei a highei scenaiio in
summei. Fall anu wintei changes aie smallei: 2 to S
o
F unuei a lowei anu 6 to 1u
o
F unuei a

23
1LMLkA1UkL CnANGL kLLA1IVL 1C 1981-2010
W
I
N
1
L
k

(
D
e
c
-
I
a
n
-
I
e
b
)

S
k
I
N
G

(
M
a
r
-
A
p
r
-
M
a
y
)

S
U
M
M
L
k

(
I
u
n
-
I
u
|
-
A
u
g
)

I
A
L
L

(
S
e
p
t
-
C
c
t
-
N
o
v
)

I|gure 6. ro[ecLed absoluLe value (lefL) and relaLlve change (rlghL) ln seasona| average temperature compared Lo 1981-2010 for
wlnLer (uec-!an-leb), sprlng (Mar-Apr-May), summer (!un-!ul-Aug) and fall (SepL-CcL-nov). CreaLer changes are pro[ecLed for
sprlng and summer as compared Lo wlnLer and fall. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware, based on lndlvldual
pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes for Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln yellow, pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher
scenarlo ln red. 8lack whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe range of uncerLalnLy from mulLlple cllmaLe models.

26
highei scenaiio in fall, anu S.S to 4
o
F unuei a lowei anu 6.S to 8
o
F unuei a highei scenaiios
in wintei.
Foi both seasonal anu annual tempeiatuie, the incieases simulateu by CNIPS mouels aie
geneially highei than those simulateu by CNIPS mouels (not shown; plots available in
Excel appenuix). This uiffeience may be uue to a gieatei numbei of mouels in CNIPS as
compaieu to CNIPS, anu theiefoie a laigei sample size of piojecteu changes. It may also
ieflect uiffeient piocesses occuiiing within the mouels, because the CNIPS mouels useu in
this analysis iepiesent newei anu moie complex veisions of CNIPS mouels. Compaiing
simulations foi seasonal tempeiatuie, it appeais that the SRES A1fi anu RCP 8.S scenaiios
(both highei) aie geneially close, with RCP 8.S being slightly highei than A1fi in all seasons.
In contiast, the SRES B1 anu RCP 4.S scenaiios (both lowei) aie neaily iuentical in wintei
anu spiing, but extiemely uiffeient in summei anu fall. SRES B1 multi-mouel aveiage
piojections anu even the multi-mouel iange is significantly smallei (by moie than S
o
F) than
RCP 4.S in summei anu fall. This suggests that theie may be uiffeient piocesses at woik in
uiiving summei anu fall tempeiatuie change in the CNIPS mouels compaieu to CNIPS.
Bistoiical $);<)&#$=&) &#(9) (the uiffeience between the aveiage maximum anu
minimum tempeiatuie foi the season)is smallest foi wintei (aveiaging aiounu 17
o
F) anu
laigest foi spiing (aiounu 21
o
F). I'9=&) T shows the histoiical anu piojecteu futuie iange
in tempeiatuie foi each season. The laigest anu most significant change is in spiing, wheie
all mouels pioject a consistent inciease in the iange of tempeiatuie. Piojecteu changes foi
wintei anu summei aie inconsistent, with some mouels piojecting an inciease anu otheis,
a ueciease. Foi fall, mouels pioject eithei no change oi a ueciease in tempeiatuie iange.
Piojecteu changes in annual tempeiatuie iange aie negligable (not shown).
The :$#(0#&0 0)8'#$',( ,@ $);<)&#$=&) is a uiffeient type of measuie; it assesses the
uay-to-uay vaiiability in maximum anu minimum tempeiatuies. Bistoiically, the stanuaiu
ueviation of uaytime maximum tempeiatuie, aveiageu acioss the 14 Belawaie weathei
stations, is almost 18
o
F, while the stanuaiu ueviation of nighttime tempeiatuie is slightly
lowei, almost 17
o
F. In the futuie, the stanuaiu ueviation of tempeiatuie is piojecteu to
change slightly: foi maximum tempeiatuie, an inciease of aiounu +u.S
o
F unuei lowei
scenaiios anu +1
o
F unuei highei scenaiios, anu foi minimum tempeiatuie, an inciease of
aiounu aiounu +u.S
o
F unuei lowei scenaiios anu +1.S
o
F unuei highei scenaiios foi the
multi-mouel mean by late centuiy (I'9=&) U). Inuiviuual mouels uo not necessaiily agiee:
although the mean shows an inciease, some mouels pioject no change oi even a slight
ueciease. 0n aveiage, this means that futuie climate change may inciease the iange in uay-
to-uay tempeiatuies as compaieu to the histoiical aveiage, but this inciease is not ceitain.

27

I|gure 7. PlsLorlcal modelled and pro[ecLed fuLure temperature range (maxlmum - mlnlmum LemperaLure) for wlnLer (uec-!an-
leb), sprlng (Mar-Apr-May), summer (!un-!ul-Aug) and fall (SepL-CcL-nov). lncreases ln Lhe range are pro[ecLed ln sprlng, and
decreases ln fall. no change ls pro[ecLed ln wlnLer and summer, nor annually. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of
uelaware, based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes for lower scenarlos are shown ln yellow,
pro[ecLlons for hlgher scenarlos ln red. 8lack whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe range of uncerLalnLy from mulLlple cllmaLe models.

Temperature Extremes
As aveiage maximum anu minimum tempeiatuies inciease, extieme heat is also expecteu
to become moie fiequent, while extieme colu is expecteu to become less fiequent. What is
vieweu as "extieme" is often location-specific: while a 9u
o
F uay may be extieme foi one
place, it may be noimal foi anothei. Foi that ieason, a bioau iange of tempeiatuie extieme
anu thiesholu inuicatois weie calculateu in this analysis: some using fixeu thiesholus (e.g.,
uays pei yeai ovei 1uu
o
F oi below S2
o
F) anu otheis using peicentiles (e.g., futuie uays pei
yeai coluei than the coluest 1 peicent of uays, oi waimei than the waimest S peicent of
uays).

28
MAkIMUM 1LMLkA1UkL kANGL MINIMUM 1LMLkA1UkL kANGL

I|gure 8. PlsLorlcal and pro[ecLed fuLure varlablllLy ln day-Lo-day annual maxlmum (dayLlme) and mlnlmum (nlghLLlme)
LemperaLure, measured as Lhe standard dev|at|on of dally values for each Llme perlod, ln degrees l. Changes are Lhe average
for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware, based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes under lower scenarlos of
human emlsslons of heaL-Lrapplng gases are shown ln yellow, and pro[ecLlons for hlgher scenarlos ln red. 1he black whlskers"
lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models.

Beginning with peicentiles, the tempeiatuie of the histoiical 1-in-1uu (1 peicent) anu 1-in-
2u (S peicent) coluest uays of the yeai cuiiently aveiages aiounu 18 to 19
o
F anu 27 to
28
o
F, iespectively. As aveiage tempeiatuies inciease, the fiequency of 1-in-2u coluest uays
is piojecteu to ueciease fiom the histoiical aveiage of S to 4 peicent by 2u2u-2uS9, S
peicent by miu-centuiy, anu ultimately 2 peicent by late centuiy, with slightly gieatei
changes by enu of centuiy unuei highei as compaieu to lowei scenaiios (I'9=&) V, left).
Little significant change is expecteu in 1-in-1uu coluest uays: theie is some inuication of a
small ueciease in fiequency, but it is not significant.
In teims of high tempeiatuies, the tempeiatuie of the histoiical 1-in-2u (9S peicent) anu
1-in-1uu (99 peicent) hottest uays aveiages aiounu 8u
o
F anu 84 to 8S
o
F, iespectively. The
fiequency of the 1-in-2u hottest uays, cuiiently S peicent, is piojecteu to inciease to 7 to
11 peicent by 2u2u-2uS9, 1u to 1S peicent by miu-centuiy, anu by aiounu 1S peicent
unuei lowei scenaiios anu moie than 2S peicent unuei highei scenaiios by late centuiy
(I'9=&) V, iight). The fiequency of the 1-in-1uu hottest uay, cuiiently 1 peicent, is
piojecteu to inciease piopoitionally moie, to aiounu S peicent neai-teim, 6 peicent by
miu-centuiy, anu S to 1u peicent unuei lowei scenaiios anu almost 2u peicent unuei
highei scenaiios by late centuiy. In othei woius, the veiy coluest uays will still occui, but
veiy hot uays will become much moie fiequent, paiticulaily the 1-in-1uu hottest uay,
which coulu become as much as 2u times moie fiequent unuei highei scenaiios by 2u8u-
2u99. This is consistent with an inciease in the stanuaiu ueviation of both maximum anu
minimum tempeiatuie uiscusseu pieviously.

29
CCLD NIGn1S nC1 DAS

I|gure 9. ro[ecLed number of co|d n|ghts (lefL) and hot days (rlghL) LhaL exceed Lhe hlsLorlcal 1 (1-ln-100 coldesL), 3 (1-ln-20
coldesL), 93 (1-ln-20 hoLLesL), and 99 (1-ln-100 hoLLesL) days of Lhe year. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware,
based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes for Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln dark blue and
llghL orange, pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher scenarlo ln llghL blue and dark orange. 8lack whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe range of
uncerLalnLy from mulLlple cllmaLe models.
The two colu tempeiatuie thiesholus examineu heie aie numbei of times pei yeai pei yeai
when minimum (nighttime) tempeiatuie falls below 2u
o
F anu below fieezing, oi S2
o
F.
Bistoiically, theie aie typically aiounu 2u uays pei yeai below 2u
o
F anu 8S uays pei yeai
below fieezing (I'9=&) JW). In the futuie the numbei of uays below 2u
o
F is piojecteu to
uiop by S uays to an aveiage of 1S by 2u2u-2uS9, by almost S moie to an aveiage of just
ovei 1u uays pei yeai by 2u4u-2uS9, anu to a minimum of 1u uays pei yeai unuei lowei
scenaiios anu only S to 4 uays pei yeai unuei highei scenaiios by 2u8u-2u99. In geneial,
much laigei changes in uays below 2u
o
F aie piojecteu unuei the CNIPS lowei scenaiio
(RCP 4.S) as compaieu to the CNIPS lowei scenaiio (B1), while piojecteu changes unuei
the two highei scenaiios (RCP 8.S anu SRES A1fi) aie similai. CNIPS anu CNIPS piojections
aie compaieu in the Excel appenuix.

30
NUM8Lk CI CCLD NIGn1S Lk LAk kCILC1LD CnANGL kLLA1IVL 1C 1981-2010

I|gure 10. PlsLorlcal and pro[ecLed fuLure number of co|d n|ghts per year (lefL) and pro[ecLed change relaLlve Lo 1981-2010
average (rlghL) wlLh mlnlmum LemperaLure below 20
o
l (Lop) and 32
o
l (boLLom). Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of
uelaware, based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes under Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln
dark blue, and pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher scenarlo ln llghL blue. 8lack whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng
mulLlple cllmaLe models.
The numbei of times minimum tempeiatuie uiops below fieezing is also expecteu to
ueciease: by aiounu 1u uays by neai-centuiy, anu by 2u uays by miu-centuiy (I'9=&) JW).
By late centuiy theie aie piojecteu to be aiounu 6u-7u nights pei yeai below fieezing
unuei lowei scenaiios anu 4u-Su nights pei yeai unuei highei scenaiios. Foi this
thiesholu, gieatei changes tenu to be piojecteu unuei CNIPS scenaiios as compaieu to
CNIPS.
The fiist anu last uates of fieeze each yeai aie closely ielateu to the length of the giowing
season. Although the giowing season can be uefineu in uiffeient ways foi uiffeient ciops
anu vaiious iegions, it is uefineu heie simply as the "fiost-fiee" season, counting the
numbei of uays between the last fiost in spiing anu the fiist fiost in fall oi wintei.
Acioss Belawaie, the fiost-fiee giowing season cuiiently aveiages aiounu 21u uays pei
yeai (I'9=&) JJ). In the futuie, it is piojecteu to lengthen: by about 1u uays ovei the neai-
teim, aiounu 2u uays by miu-centuiy, anu fiom Su uays unuei a lowei scenaiio up to Su

31
A8SCLU1L VALUL CnANGL kLLA1IVL 1C 1981-2010
G
k
C
W
I
N
G

S
L
A
S
C
N

L
A
S
1

S
k
I
N
G

I
k
C
S
1

I
I
k
S
1

I
A
L
L

I
k
C
S
1

I|gure 11. ro[ecLed absoluLe value (lefL) and change compared Lo 1981-2010 (rlghL) ln growlng season (Lop), daLe of lasL sprlng
frosL (mlddle) and flrsL fall frosL (boLLom) ln unlLs of days per year. CreaLer changes are pro[ecLed for sprlng and summer as
compared Lo wlnLer and fall. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware, based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher
sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes for Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln yellow, pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher scenarlo ln orange. 8lack
whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe range of uncerLalnLy from mulLlple cllmaLe models.
uays longei unuei a highei scenaiio foi late centuiy. Changes in the fiist uate of fall fiost
aie piojecteu to be only slightly smallei than changes in the last uate of spiing fiost,
suggesting that oveiall the giowing season is likely to lengthen into both spiing anu fall.
Foi high tempeiatuies, the uays pei yeai above foui high tempeiatuie thiesholus (9S, 1uu,
1uS, anu 11u
o
F) aie all piojecteu to inciease, with piopoitionally gieatei incieases in the
absolute numbei of uays pei yeai, compaieu to histoiical values, foi the moie extieme
inuicatois (e.g., uays ovei 1uS oi 11u
o
F) as compaieu to the less extieme thiesholus (e.g.,
uays ovei 9u oi 9S
o
F; I'9=&) JL). Foi example, Belawaie cuiiently expeiiences an aveiage
of less than S uays pei yeai with maximum tempeiatuie exceeuing 9S
o
F. By 2u2u-2uS9,

32

I|gure 12. PlsLorlcal and pro[ecLed fuLure number of hot days per year wlLh maxlmum LemperaLure above 93, 100, 103, and
110
o
l. noLe dlfferenL range on y-axls ln each flgure: from 0 Lo 130 days per year for 90
o
l Lo 0 Lo 30 days for 103
o
l. Changes are
Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware, based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes under Lhe
lower scenarlo are shown ln llghL red, and pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher scenarlo ln dark red. 1he black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe
uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models
that numbei is piojecteu to inciease to 1u to 1S pei yeai. By miu-centuiy, the iange
incieases to 1S to Su uays pei yeai. By late centuiy, theie coulu be an aveiage of 2u to Su
uays pei yeai unuei lowei scenaiios anu Su to 6S uays pei yeai ovei 9S
o
F unuei highei
scenaiios, an inciease on the oiuei of 4 to 6 times highei than histoiical values unuei lowei
anu moie than 1u times histoiical values unuei highei scenaiios. In contiast, a uay ovei
1uu
o
F occuis only once eveiy few yeais in the histoiical iecoiu. By 2u2u-2uS9 theie aie
piojecteu to be between 1 anu S such uays pei yeai, anu by miu-centuiy, between 1.S to 8
uays pei yeai. By late centuiy unuei lowei scenaiios theie coulu be between S anu 1u uays
pei yeai ovei 1uu
o
F; unuei highei scenaiios, between 1S anu Su uays pei yeai. Foi
maximum tempeiatuie extiemes, CNIPS piojections aie geneially gieatei than CNIPS
unuei both highei anu lowei scenaiios. Foi minimum tempeiatuie extiemes, howevei,
both CNIPS anu CNIPS scenaiios aie noticeably highei than both CNIPS anu CNIPS lowei
scenaiios (CNIPS anu CNIPS piojections aie compaieu in the Excel Appenuix).
In inteipieting these extieme heat piojections, it is also impoitant to iemembei that the
statistical uownscaling methou useu heie has a known positive bias in extieme heat uays

33
foi coastal aieas. As a numbei of the weathei stations useu in this analysis coulu be
consiueieu coastal, this bias suggests that piojecteu changes in extieme heat conuitions
that occui iaiely in the histoiical iecoiu (e.g., uays pei yeai with maximum tempeiatuie
ovei 1uu
o
F oi uays pei yeai hottei than the hottest uay in 1 oi moie yeais) uevelopeu
using this uownscaling methou foi the late centuiy time fiame aie likely highei than the
piojections that woulu have been geneiateu using a high-iesolution uynamical climate
mouel.
This analysis also calculateu piojecteu changes in thiee minimum tempeiatuie thiesholus:
the numbei of nights pei yeai above 8u, 8S, anu 9u
o
F. Bighei tempeiatuies at night aie
often associateu with health impacts, as waim nights offei no iespite fiom high uaytime
tempeiatuies. As with uaytime maximum tempeiatuies, the fiequency of these nights is
also piojecteu to inciease (I'9=&) JM). Bistoiically, nights ovei 8u
o
F oi highei aie quite
iaie: aveiageu acioss the 14 weathei stations useu foi this analysis, less than one pei
uecaue. In the futuie, an aveiage of S nights pei yeai above 8u
o
F is piojecteu foi miu-
centuiy unuei a lowei scenaiio, anu S nights unuei a highei. By late centuiy, piojecteu
changes iange fiom 1 to 17 nights pei yeai (with an aveiage of 8) ovei 8u
o
F in a lowei
scenaiio (anu between 1u anu moie than Su nights pei yeai (with an aveiage of S2) in a
highei scenaiio. Piojecteu changes in the numbei of nights pei yeai above 8S
o
F anu 9u
o
F
aie aiounu one-thiiu anu one-eighth as laige, iespectively, as the piojecteu changes in
nights pei yeai ovei 8u
o
F by late centuiy. The numbei of nights pei yeai with minimum

I|gure 13. PlsLorlcal and pro[ecLed fuLure number of warm
n|ghts per year wlLh mlnlmum LemperaLure above 80, 83, and
90
o
l. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware,
based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons.
ro[ecLed changes under Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln
yellow, and pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher scenarlo ln orange.
8lack whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from
uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models.

34
tempeiatuies below the 1
st
anu S
th
peicentile of the uistiibution, anu the numbei of uays
with maximum tempeiatuie above the 9S
th
anu 99
th
peicentile of the uistiibution weie also
calculateu as pait of this analysis (not shownsee Excel Appenuix).
Beat waves aie anothei measuie of extieme tempeiatuies. Beat waves aie geneially
uefineu as a peiiou of piolongeu, unusual heat. Beie we use foui uiffeient uefinitions of
heat waves to examine the uiffeience in ielatively milu veisus moie seveie events. The fiist
uefinition is the numbei of consecutive uays with maximum uaytime tempeiatuie
exceeuing 9u
o
F (I'9=&) JN). Bistoiically, the longest stietch of back-to-back uays
exceeuing 9u
o
F aveiages aiounu a week. This is piojecteu to inciease to 2 weeks by the
neai-teim peiiou of 2u2u-2uS9, 2V to S weeks by miu-centuiy, anu almost 4 weeks unuei
a lowei scenaiio anu moie than 6 weeks unuei a highei scenaiio by late centuiy. The
seconu anu thiiu uefinitions aie similai: the longest stietch of uays with maximum uaytime
tempeiatuie exceeuing 9S
o
F anu 1uu
o
F. Bistoiically, theie aie typically aiounu 2
consecutive uays ovei 9S
o
F pei yeai on aveiage, but no moie than one uay ovei 1uu
o
F at a
time. These numbeis aie also piojecteu to inciease. By enu of centuiy, the longest peiiou of
time ovei 9S
o
F coulu aveiage aiounu 12 uays unuei a lowei anu 2S uays unuei a highei

I|gure 14. PlsLorlcal and fuLure longesL consecuLlve sLreLches of days w|th max|mum da||y temperature exceed|ng 90, 9S and
100
o
I, and average number of extreme 1-|n-10 year heat waves per year. LxLreme heaL waves are deflned as occurrlng on
average once per decade hlsLorlcally. noLe dlfferenL scales on y-axes of flgures. LvenLs are averaged over lndlvldual pro[ecLlons
for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes under Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln yellow, whlle pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher
scenarlo are shown ln orange. 1he black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models.

33
scenaiio by late centuiy. The longest peiiou ovei 1uu
o
F coulu aveiage aiounu 4 uays unuei
a lowei anu 1S uays unuei a highei scenaiio.
The uefinition of a veiy extieme heatwave baseu on Kunkel et al. (1999) is calculateu baseu
on the histoiical iecoiu of the stiongest heat wave pei uecaue. Specifically, it counts the
nubmei of times wheie aveiage (uay plus nighttime tempeiatuie) on at least 4 consecutive
uays exceeus the histoiical 1-in-1u-yeai event. Bistoiically, such events aie iaie (I'9=&)
JN). Neai-teim, heat waves by this uefinition aie piojecteu to occui on aveiage eveiy S out
of S yeais. By miu-centuiy, theie coulu be an aveiage of one event pei yeai unuei the lowei
scenaiio anu two pei yeai unuei highei. By late centuiy, theie aie piojecteu to be an
aveiage of S events pei yeai unuei a lowei scenaiio (with an unceitainty iange fiom 1 to S
pei yeai) anu 1u pei yeai unuei a highei scenaiio (with an unceitainty iange fiom S to 17).
In othei woius, a heat wave that histoiically occuis only once pei uecaue coulu be
occuiiing between S to 17 times pei yeai by late centuiy.
Energy-Related Temperature Indicators
Cooling anu heating uegiee-uays pioviue a useful inuicatoi of uemanu foi electiicity in the
summei (foi aii conuitioning) anu natuial gas oi oil in the wintei (foi space heating). They
aie typically calculateu as the cumulative numbei of houis pei yeai above (foi cooling) oi
below (foi heating) a given tempeiatuie thiesholu, heie taken to be 6S
o
F.
As tempeiatuies inciease, cooling uegiee-uays anu hence the uemanu foi aii conuitioning
in the summei aie piojecteu to inciease; heating uegiee-uays anu uemanu foi space
heating, to ueciease (I'9=&) JR). Cuiiently, the annual aveiage uemanu foi cooling acioss
Belawaie is ielatively small (about 1,2uu uegiee-uays pei yeai) compaieu to uemanu foi
heating (about 4,Suu uegiee-uays pei yeai). As aveiage anu seasonal tempeiatuies waim,
uemanu foi cooling will inciease while uemanu foi heating uecieases. 0nuei a highei
scenaiio, by late centuiy, the uemanu foi heating anu cooling is piojecteu to be
appioximately equal, aiounu S,uuu uegiee-uays pei yeai foi each. 0nuei a lowei scenaiio,
uemanu foi cooling is piojecteu to be aiounu two-thiius that of heating: 2,1uu cooling
uegiee-uays pei yeai as compaieu to aiounu S,Suu heating uegiee-uays pei yeai.
This analysis makes no attempt to assess the ultimate impact on the consumei. It simply
estimates piojecteu changes in the uemanu foi cooling: a Su peicent inciease by 2u2u-
2uS9, a SS to 7u peicent inciease by 2u4u-2uS9, anu an aveiage inciease of Su peicent
unuei lowei scenaiios anu 1Su peicent unuei highei scenaiios by late centuiy. Beating
uemanu is piojecteu to ueciease: by about 1u peicent neai-teim, neaily 2u peicent by miu-
centuiy, anu aiounu 2u peicent unuei lowei scenaiios anu almost 4u peicent unuei highei
scenaiios by late centuiy. It is impoitant to note that the souices of eneigy foi heating
veisus cooling aie geneially uiffeient (electiicity veisus gas oi oil). Foi that ieason,
incieases in CBBs aie not likely to be offset by uecieases in BBBs but iathei will have
uiffeient impacts on eneigy supply anu costs.

36
CCCLING DLGkLL-DAS nLA1ING DLGkLL-DAS

I|gure 1S. PlsLorlcal and pro[ecLed fuLure annual cumulaLlve coo||ng and heat|ng degree-days uslng a LemperaLure Lhreshold of
63
o
l. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware, based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed
changes under Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln yellow for coollng degree-days (whlch are warm) and dark blue for heaLlng
degree-days (whlch are cold). ro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher scenarlo are shown ln orange for coollng degree-days and llghL blue for
heaLlng degree-days. 1he black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models.

37
SECTI 0N 4
O1GBQOQ>.>QCDP1GH.>GE QDEQB.>C1/

Climate change is expecteu to altei piecipitation patteins aiounu the woilu. Some iegions
anu seasons may get wettei, while otheis get uiiei. The intensity anu fiequency of heavy
iainfalls, as well as the uuiation of uiy peiious, may be alteieu. Niulatituues aie geneially
piojecteu to become wettei, with incieases in heavy piecipitation events. Acioss the
Noitheast anu NiuAtlantic iegion, heavy piecipitation has alieauy incieaseuby moie
than 7u peicent ovei the last 6u yeais, in many locations (Walsh et al., 2u14). This section
summaiizes changes in piecipitation anu ielateu seconuaiy inuicatois that aie piojecteu to
occui acioss the state of Belawaie in iesponse to global climate change.
Annual and Seasonal Precipitation
Annual piecipitation acioss Belawaie aveiages aiounu 4S inches pei yeai. It is evenly
uistiibuteu thioughout the yeai, with moie than 1u inches on aveiage falling in each
season. Slightly less piecipitation (aiounu 1-2 inches less) tenus to fall in fall anu wintei as
compaieu to spiing anu summei. In the futuie, annual aveiage piecipitation is piojecteu to
inciease (I'9=&) JS), consistent with a geneial inciease in piecipitation piojecteu foi miu-
latituues, incluuing the noithein half of the 0niteu States. Incieases aie gieatei anu moie

I|gure 16. PlsLorlcal and fuLure slmulaLed annua| average prec|p|tat|on (lefL) and change ln annual average preclplLaLlon (rlghL)
as slmulaLed under a lower (green) and hlgher (blue) fuLure scenarlo. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware, based
on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. 1he black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple
cllmaLe models.

38
consistent by enu of centuiy compaieu to eailiei time peiious. Foi both the neai-teim anu
miu-centuiy peiious, foi example, the multi-mouel aveiage shows an inciease in
piecipitation unuei all scenaiios, but some inuiviuual mouel simulations show uecieases.
By enu of centuiy, in contiast, all but one mouel shows an inciease, as inuicateu by the
black bais in I'9=&) JS.
Seasonal changes show stiongei uiffeiences between scenaiios foi piojecteu piecipitation
incieases in wintei (I'9=&) JT). In wintei, when the laigest piecipitation incieases aie
piojecteu to occui, incieases piojecteu unuei a highei scenaiio aie highei by enu of
centuiy than unuei a lowei scenaiio. Piojecteu changes in spiing, summei, anu fall
piecipitation uo not show significant scenaiio uiffeiences (oi much change at all, as the
ianges of unceitainty foi each multi-mouel aveiage all encompass both positive anu
negative changes, even out to the enu of the centuiy).
Even in wintei, the main souice of unceitainty in aveiage anu seasonal piecipitation is not
scenaiio unceitainty but iathei mouel unceitainty. Piojecteu incieases in annual aveiage
piecipitation unuei CNIPS simulations tenu to be highei than unuei CNIPS simulations (1u
to 2u peicent veisus 7 to 1u peicent, iespectively, foi annual aveiage piecipitation by late
centuiy). 0luei CNIPS simulations (baseu on foui global climate mouels) also uiffei fiom
newei CNIPS simulations (baseu on nine global climate mouels) in seasonal piojections.
CNIPS piojections show incieases in piecipitation to be uistiibuteu evenly thioughout the
yeai (see Excel Appenuix). In contiast, CNIPS piojections show piecipitation incieases
only in wintei anu fall.
In auuition to seasonal changes in piecipitation, changes in S-month, 6-month, anu 12-
month cumulative piecipitation weie calculateu foi peiious beginning with each month
fiom }anuaiy to Becembei. This infoimation is available in the Excel Appenuix that
accompanies this iepoit.
Dry and Wet Periods
As climate changes, piecipitation is piojecteu to inciease, paiticulaily in wintei. Bowevei,
little to no change is piojecteu in annual uiy uays. This can be explaineu by the inciease in
piecipitation intensity. Although theie is moie piecipitation, the aveiage amount of
piecipitation falling on wet uays is also incieasing: by aiounu 2 peicent ovei the neai teim,
S to 4 peicent by miu-centuiy, anu S peicent unuei a lowei scenaiio anu 11 peicent unuei
a highei scenaiio by late centuiy. This inciease in the aveiage amount of piecipitation
falling on a given wet uay keeps pace with the piojecteu inciease in wintei piecipitation.
This explains why little to no change in the numbei of uiy uays is piojecteu (I'9=&) JU).
It is impoitant to note, howevei that the total numbei of uiy uays pei yeai is anothei
vaiiable on which CNIPS anu CNIPS piojections foi the futuie uisagiee slightly. 0nuei
CNIPS, the numbei of uiy uays )& piojecteu to ueciease by a few uays a yeai.

39

kLCII1A1ICN (INCnLS) CnANGL kLLA1IVL 1C 1981-2010
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I|gure 17. PlsLorlcal and fuLure cumulaLlve seasona| prec|p|tat|on (lefL) and percenLage change ln seasonal preclplLaLlon
compared Lo 1981-2010 (rlghL) for wlnLer (uec-!an-leb), sprlng (Mar-Apr-May), summer (!un-!ul-Aug) and fall (SepL-CcL-nov).
CreaLer changes are pro[ecLed for wlnLer and fall, llLLle change ln sprlng and summer. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of
uelaware, based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes for Lhe lower scenarlo are shown ln green,
pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher scenarlo ln blue. 8lack whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe range of uncerLalnLy from mulLlple cllmaLe models.

40

I|gure 18. PlsLorlcal and fuLure percenLage changes ln (a)
w|nter prec|p|tat|on and (b) prec|p|tat|on |ntens|ty balance
ouL Lo suggesL llLLle change ln (c) Lhe overall number of dry
days per year. Changes are Lhe average for Lhe sLaLe of
uelaware, based on lndlvldual pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher
sLaLlons. ro[ecLed changes for Lhe lower scenarlo are shown
ln green, pro[ecLlons for Lhe hlgher scenarlo ln blue. 8lack
whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe range of uncerLalnLy from mulLlple
cllmaLe models
0nuei CNIPS, the numbei of uiy uays is piojecteu to show little change. This small
uiffeience is likely the iesult of piojecteu incieases in annual piecipitation unuei CNIPS
being slightly laigei than piojecteu incieases unuei CNIPS; simply put, with that much
moie iain, theie aie a few moie wet uays.
The Stanuaiuizeu Piecipitation Inuex (SPI) offeis a uiffeient way to look at uiy anu wet
conuitions. This inuex is commonly useu by the National Biought Nitigation Centei anu the
National Climatic Bata Centei to inuicate uiy anu wet aieas within the continental 0niteu
States on an ongoing basis. It is stanuaiuizeu, such that zeio iepiesents noimal conuitions
foi that location; negative values inuicate conuitions uiiei than aveiage, fiom u to -7, while
positive values inuicate wettei conuitions, fiom u to +7.
SPI piojections suggest a tienu towaius slightly wettei conuitions, with aveiage SPI
incieasing by u.1 ovei the couise of this centuiy, consistent with incieases in aveiage
piecipitation (not shown; see Excel appenuix). uiven an inuex fiom u to 7, howevei, this
inciease is veiy small anu the unceitainty iange uue to multiple mouels encompasses zeio,
suggesting that some mouels pioject a slight ueciease in SPI anu otheis, an inciease anu
oveiall, piojecteu changes aie not significant.

41
Heavy Precipitation Events
Beavy piecipitation events aie alieauy incieasing globally, acioss the 0niteu States, anu
acioss the noitheast iegion of the 0niteu States in paiticulai. The incieaseu fiequency of
these events has been foimally attiibuteu to human-inuuceu climate change. In many
iegions, the obseiveu tienu in heavy iainfall is expecteu to continue in the futuie as
waiming tempeiatuies acceleiate the hyuiological cycle at both the local anu global scale
(e.g., Tebalui et al., 2uu6).
National anu global stuuies typically look at heavy piecipitation ovei a single iange;
howevei, uepenuing on the iegion, uiffeient levels of heavy snow anu iain can have veiy
uiffeient impacts. Beie, a bioau iange of piecipitation inuicatois weie analyzeu. They
consist of:
Numbei of uays pei yeai with moie than u.S, 1, 2, S, 4, S, 6, 7 anu 8 inches of
piecipitation in 24h;
The wettest uay, S uays, anu 2 weeks in 1, 2, anu 1u yeais; anu
Numbei of uays pei yeai exceeuing the histoiical 2-, 4-, anu 7-uay maximum iainfall
Foi the state of Belawaie, neaily eveiy inuicatoi of extieme piecipitation is piojecteu to
inciease in the futuie (>#K4) M, with highlights in I'9=&) JV). This is consistent with
obseiveu tienus as well as with futuie piojecteu tienus acioss the eastein 0niteu States.

I|gure 19. ro[ecLed fuLure changes ln Lhe number of days per
year w|th cumu|at|ve prec|p|tat|on exceed|ng a range of
thresho|ds from 0.S to 2 |nches |n 24 hours. Changes are Lhe
average for Lhe sLaLe of uelaware, based on lndlvldual
pro[ecLlons for 14 weaLher sLaLlons. ro[ecLlons uslng a lower
fuLure scenarlo are green, a hlgher scenarlo, blue. 8lack
whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng
mulLlple cllmaLe models.

42
Foi "less extieme" inuicatois (e.g., uays pei yeai ovei u.S oi 1 inches in 24 houis), theie
was little uiffeience in piojecteu changes unuei a highei veisus a lowei scenaiio, although
oveiall laigei changes aie piojecteu by late centuiy as compaieu to neai-teim. Foi "moie
extieme" inuicatois (e.g., uays pei yeai with 2 inches oi moie of piecipitation in 24 houis),
piojecteu changes unuei a highei scenaiio weie geneially gieatei than piojecteu changes
unuei a lowei scenaiio, although in all cases the iange of unceitainty uue to using multiple
mouel piojections continues to oveilap, suggesting that the uiffeiences between scenaiios
may not be statistically significant. Foi "veiy extieme" inuicatois (e.g., wettest 1 oi S uays
of the yeai oi beyonu), theie was less of a uiffeience between highei veisus lowei
scenaiios; piojections foi events that aie cuiiently extiemely iaie, howevei, aie
significantly less ceitain than piojections foi moie fiequent events. Finally, the amount of
piecipitation falling in the wettest 2 weeks of the yeai (oi 2 yeais, oi 1u yeais) showeu
little to no change ovei any time fiame. This suggests that the laigest impact of climate
change will be on shoit-uuiation piecipitation events which can be both convective anu
laige-scale in natuie, iathei than on the fiequency anu uuiation of laige weathei systems
that biing extenueu iain ovei multiple weeks.
In teims of thiesholus, the aveiage of piecipitation iecoius acioss 14 Belawaie stations
shows that, on aveiage, the state cuiiently expeiiences aiounu 28 uays pei yeai with moie
than u.S inches of iain in 24 houis; 12 uays with moie than 1 inch; anu 2 uays with moie
than 2 inches. By late centuiy, these numbeis aie piojecteu to inciease by 1 to 2 uays foi
u.S inches, 2 to S uays foi 1 inch, anu u.S to 1 uays foi 2 inches (I'9=&) JV). Auuitional
changes piojecteu foi othei inuicatois aie listeu in Table S.
Foi lowei amounts of heavy piecipitation (u.S to 2 inches in 24 houis), piojecteu changes
unuei CNIPS aie geneially gieatei than unuei CNIPS, likely because CNIPS mouels pioject
laigei incieases in aveiage piecipitation as compaieu to CNIPS. Foi highei levels of
piecipitation (S to 8 inches), howevei, CNIPS anu CNIPS piojections aie similai (foi CNIPS
compaiison with CNIPS, see Excel Appenuix).

43
1ab|e 3. ro[ecLed changes ln lndlcaLors of exLreme preclplLaLlon calculaLed ln Lhls analysls, lncludlng: (1) Lhe average number
of days per year where cumulaLlve preclplLaLlon exceeds Lhresholds beLween 0.3 and 8 lnches, Lhe LoLal amounL of
preclplLaLlon falllng ln Lhe weLLesL 1, 3, and 14 consecuLlve days of (2) Lhe year, (3) 2 years, and (4) 10 years, and (3) Lhe number
of Llmes per year Lhe hlsLorlcal 2-, 4- and 7-day maxlmum preclplLaLlon amounLs are exceeded ln Lhe fuLure.
1981-2010 2020-2039 2040-2039 2080-2099
Lower Plgher Lower Plgher
Days per year exceed|ng a g|ven thresho|d of 24h cumu|at|ve prec|p|tat|on
0.3 28.07 28.99 28.33 28.33 29.29 29.38
1 12.04 12.94 12.92 13.10 13.37 14.71
2 2.12 2.43 2.47 2.71 2.69 3.36
3 0.67 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.86 1.17
4 0.29 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.41 0.33
3 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.23 0.29
6 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.18
7 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.13
8 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.10
In one year, wettest .
1 day 3.28 3.46 3.33 3.64 3.77 4.23
3 days 6.40 6.60 6.69 6.84 7.09 7.41
2 weeks 14.20 14.27 14.32 14.36 14.46 14.34
In 2 years, wettest .
1 day 4.07 4.31 4.34 4.63 4.89 3.44
3 days 7.40 7.67 7.76 8.30 8.83 8.98
2 weeks 14.41 14.47 14.62 14.74 13.20 13.07
In 10 years, wettest .
1 day 6.24 6.67 6.70 7.13 8.09 8.38
3 days 10.74 11.10 11.37 12.72 14.28 13.29
2 weeks 13.68 13.92 16.39 17.27 18.71 17.89
Number of t|mes h|stor|ca| thresho|d |s exceeded
2-day maxlmum 0.001 0.013 0.011 0.019 0.019 0.046
4-day maxlmum 0.000 0.003 0.003 0.013 0.008 0.024
7-day maxlmum 0.000 0.003 0.001 0.009 0.004 0.013

44

SECTI 0N S
*7A1QE QDEQB.>C1/

Tempeiatuie anu piecipitation alone uo not captuie the full extent of ielevant change in
Belawaie's climate. Foi that ieason, this iepoit also piesents piojecteu changes in
humiuity anu in "hybiiu" oi multivaiiable inuicatois such as heat inuex (a combination of
tempeiatuie anu humiuity that measuies how hot it "feels" to the human bouy), potential
evapotianspiiation (which uepenus on solai iauiation, humiuity, tempeiatuie, winus, anu
othei factois), anu cool anu wet oi hot anu uiy uays.
Relative Humidity and Dewpoint Temperature
Bew point tempeiatuie is uefineu as the tempeiatuie to which the aii must be cooleu to
conuense the watei vapoi it contains into watei. I'9=&) LW compaies piojecteu changes in
uew point veisus aveiage aii tempeiatuie by season. In geneial, piojecteu changes foi uew
point tempeiatuie aie similai to anu slightly less than those piojecteu foi aveiage
tempeiatuie. This coulu be the iesult of small uecieases in ielative humiuity piojecteu foi
most seasons except spiing (not shown; see Excel appenuix). Bowevei, it coulu also be
ielateu to the fact that uew point tempeiatuie piojections coulu be calculateu only foi
thiee aiipoit locations with long-teim humiuity iecoius.
Summer Heat Index and Potential Evapotranspiration
Beat inuex is often useu in the summei to expiess how hot it "feels" to the human bouy,
baseu on a combination of both tempeiatuie anu humiuity, which affects evapoiation anu
cooling. A ielateu metiic is potential evapotianspiiation, oi PET. This measuies the amount
of evapoiation that woulu occui, given ceitain levels of tempeiatuie, winu, humiuity, anu
solai iauiation, anu an unlimiteu watei supply.
The ielationships among heat inuex, tempeiatuie, anu humiuity aie not lineai. Bespite
little change to a slight ueciease being piojecteu foi ielative humiuity in summei (I'9=&)
LJ), piojecteu incieases in summei heat inuex by the enu of the centuiy aie appioximately
uouble the piojecteu changes foi maximum uaytime summei tempeiatuie alone. In othei
woius, the piojecteu inciease in tempeiatuie may 5##/ twice as laige as it actually is, uue to
the inteiactions between humiuity anu tempeiatuie anu theii impact on the human bouy.

43

DLWCIN1 1LMLkA1UkL 1LMLkA1UkL

I|gure 20. PlsLorlcal slmulaLed and fuLure pro[ecLed preclplLaLlon amounLs ln dew po|nt temperature (lefL) and average
temperature (rlghL) for wlnLer and summer. (Sprlng and fall graphs provlded ln Lhe Lxcel Appendlx.) uew polnL LemperaLures
are based on pro[ecLlons for Lhree alrporL locaLlons only, average LemperaLures are based on pro[ecLlons for all 14 weaLher
sLaLlons. 1he black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models.

46
(a)

(b)

(c)

I|gure 21. PlsLorlcal slmulaLed and fuLure pro[ecLed changes
ln summer (!une, !uly and AugusL) (a) re|at|ve hum|d|ty, (b)
max|mum temperature, and (c) heat |ndex. PumldlLy and
heaL lndex are based on pro[ecLlons for Lhree alrporL locaLlons
only, average LemperaLures are based on pro[ecLlons for all 14
weaLher sLaLlons. 1he black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe
uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models.
Evapoiation is piojecteu to inciease, piimaiily uiiven by incieases in tempeiatuie. The
laigest incieases aie piojecteu foi summei, followeu by spiing anu fall (I'9=&) LL).
Hybrid Temperature and Precipitation Indicators
The final set of hybiiu inuicatois focuses on the combination of tempeiatuie anu
piecipitation (I'9=&) LL). The numbei of "hot uiy" uays with maximum tempeiatuies ovei
9u
o
F anu no measuiable iain is piojecteu to inciease Su to 1uu peicent ovei the neai teim.
By late centuiy theie coulu be between twice to moie than foui times moie hotuiy uays
compaieu to the 1981-2u1u aveiage, uepenuing on whethei human emissions follow a
highei oi a lowei futuie scenaiio. In contiast, the numbei of "cool wet" uays with
maximum tempeiatuies below 6S
o
F anu measuiable piecipitation is piojecteu to ueciease,
but not by much. Slightly gieatei changes aie piojecteu unuei the highei (4 to 6 uays) as
compaieu to the lowei (1 to 2 uays) scenaiios by late centuiy. The amount of piecipitation
that falls as iain iathei than snow is alieauy quite high foi Belawaie, aiounu 98 to 99
peicent. In the futuie even moie piecipitation is piojecteu to fall as iain than snow as
tempeiatuies waim; howevei, this is not likely to have a significant impact as it only
amounts to a change of 1 to 2 peicent (not shown - see Excel Appenuix).

47

I|gure 21. PlsLorlcal slmulaLed and fuLure pro[ecLed changes ln seasona| potent|a| evapotransp|rat|on (L1). AlLhough Lhe y-
axes of Lhe ploLs cover a dlfferenL range, Lhe LoLal range covered ls ldenLlcal (100 mm), so relaLlve changes can be seen from
one season Lo Lhe nexL. 8ased on pro[ecLlons for Lhree alrporL locaLlons only, black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe uncerLalnLy LhaL
resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models

I|gure 22. PlsLorlcal slmulaLed and fuLure pro[ecLed changes ln Lhe number of hot dry days wlLh no preclplLaLlon (lefL) and coo|
wet days wlLh preclplLaLlon (rlghL). 8ased on pro[ecLlons for all 14 weaLher sLaLlons. 1he black whlskers" lndlcaLe Lhe
uncerLalnLy LhaL resulLs from uslng mulLlple cllmaLe models

48

SECTI 0N6
BCDBH5/QCD/

Climate change is expecteu to altei aveiage anu extieme tempeiatuie anu piecipitation in
Belawaie anu the suiiounuing iegion in ways that aie consistent with histoiical tienus,
anu consistent with futuie piojections foi the gieatei miu-Atlantic iegion. These changes
have the potential to affect both human society anu the natuial enviionment in many ways.
.((=#4 #(0 :)#:,(#4 $);<)&#$=&): #&) <&,X)2$)0 $, '(2&)#:)F -'$% :4'9%$4+ 9&)#$)&
'(2&)#:): <&,X)2$)0 @,& :=;;)& #: 2,;<#&)0 $, -'($)&Y A waimei climate means that
Belawaie's climate will begin to feel moie like that of a state fuithei south along the
Atlantic coast. Aveiage anu seasonal tempeiatuies aie also majoi ueteiminants of which
plant anu animal species anu which types of ecosystems will be native to Belawaie in the
futuie. Waimei winteis can affect the giowing season anu phenology of plants, anu
agiicultuial ciops such as fiuits, that iequiie a ceitain numbei of accumulateu chilling
houis in oiuei to bloom. Seasonal tempeiatuie incieases will also shift the oveiall uemanu
foi heating eneigy in the wintei anu cooling eneigy in the summei. Acioss the 0niteu
States, builuings account foi appioximately 4u peicent of oveiall eneigy use, anu most of
that eneigy use consists of heating oi cooling the inteiioi space. With waimei winteis, less
natuial gas anu oil will be neeueu to heat homes anu builuings in the wintei. At the same
time, moie electiicity will be neeueu foi aii conuitioning in the summei.
G?$&);) %)#$ 0#+: #(0 %)#$ -#8): #&) <&,X)2$)0 $, K)2,;) ;,&) @&)Z=)($Y G?$&);)
2,40 0#+: #&) <&,X)2$)0 $, K)2,;) 4):: @&)Z=)($Y Both high anu low tempeiatuie
extiemes caiiy health iisks foi humans. Risks of illness anu ueath fiom colu tempeiatuies
will likely ueciease with a ueciease in the fiequency anu seveiity of colu extiemes. At the
same time, the iisks of illness anu ueath fiom extieme high tempeiatuies uuiing extenueu
heat waves will likely inciease, unless these effects aie mitigateu by heat watchwaining
systems that help people to piotect themselves uuiing these events. Colu extiemes uuiing
wintei can seive a useful function in keeping pests, invasive species, anu uisease vectois at
bay; as these become less fiequent, invasives anu pests native to southein states coulu
move noithwaiu into the aiea. Extieme heat can affect society in othei ways. Buiing heat
waves, people tenu to spenu less time outuoois, which coulu affect coastal touiism.

49
Extieme heat can affect infiastiuctuie, waiping iail lines anu even buckling pavement. Beat
waves can also affect eneigy supply, oveiloauing the giiu with aii conuitioning uemanus
anu incieasing the iisk of biownouts anu powei failuies.
.8)&#9) <&)2'<'$#$',( ': <&,X)2$)0 $, '(2&)#:)F <&';#&'4+ '( -'($)&Y This means that
wintei snowfall may not change much, since moie wintei piecipitation means that theie
will still be a goou chance of having piecipitation on a uay when it's colu enough to snow,
even if colu uays become less fiequent. Bottei summeis coupleu with highei evapoiation
iates anu no inciease in iainfall imply possible ieuuctions in watei levels in iain-feu lakes
anu iiveis, anu highei uemanu foi watei in summei foi iiiigation anu wateiing lawns.
*)#8+ <&)2'<'$#$',( ': )?<)2$)0 $, K)2,;) ;,&) @&)Z=)($ #: <&)2'<'$#$',( 2,($'(=):
$, K)2,;) ;,&) '($)(:)Y Incieases in heavy piecipitation can inciease the iisk of stoim
uamages anu floouing in low-lying aieas. Noie fiequent heavy piecipitation events implies
that cuiient builuing anu zoning stanuaius, such as stoim sewei capacity oi floou zones,
may become outuateu anu fail to piotect people as they weie uesigneu to uo baseu on
histoiical stanuaius.
. 2)&$#'( #;,=($ ,@ 24';#$) 2%#(9)F #(0 #::,2'#$)0 ';<#2$:F 2#( K) #8,'0)0 =(0)& #
4,-)& #: 2,;<#&)0 $, # %'9%)& :2)(#&',Y Foi all tempeiatuie-ielateu inuices anu foi
many of the extieme piecipitation inuices, theie is a significant uiffeience between the
changes expecteu unuei highei as compaieu to lowei scenaiios by late centuiy. Nost of
these uiffeiences begin to emeige by miu-centuiy. This highlights the impoitance of
scenaiio, oi human, unceitainty in futuie piojections.
. 2)&$#'( #;,=($ ,@ 24';#$) 2%#(9) ': '()8'$#K4)F )8)( =(0)& # 4,-)& :2)(#&',Y .(0
@,& :,;) ';<#2$:F $%) ;#9('$=0) ,@ @=$=&) 2%#(9): 0, (,$ 0)<)(0 ,( :2)(#&',:Y Foi
aveiage piecipitation, the gieatest uiffeiences aie between uiffeient mouel simulations.
This highlights the impoitance of scientific, oi mouel, unceitainty in futuie piojections.
/;#&$ <4#(('(9 $%#$ #22,=($: @,& @=$=&) 2%#(9): 2#( %)4< &)0=2) $%) &':[ ,@ ()9#$'8)
';<#2$:Y The piojections uesciibeu heie unueiline the value in piepaiing to auapt to the
changes that cannot be avoiueu. Changes that likely cannot be avoiueu woulu incluue most
changes in piecipitation anu, at minimum, the tempeiatuie-ielateu changes piojecteu to
occui ovei the next few uecaues, anu unuei the B1 oi RCP 4.S lowei scenaiios. Bowevei,
immeuiate anu committeu action to ieuuce emissions may help avoiu the laigei
tempeiatuie impacts piojecteu unuei the highei A1FI oi RCP 8.S scenaiios. The gieatei the
ieuuction in climate foicing fiom human activities, the moie possible it will be to
successfully auapt to a changing climate.

30

I51>*G1 1G.EQD3

Cn Lhe sclence and pollcy of cllmaLe change:
1nL kCUGn GUIDL 1C CLIMA1L CnANGL (3
kD
ed|t|on)
Penson, 8oberL. 2011. 8ough Culdes, 416 pp.
Avallable on Amazon or ln oLher booksLores.

Cn global cllmaLe models:
CLIMA1L MCDLLS: AN ASSLSSMLN1 CI S1kLNG1nS AND
LIMI1A1ICNS
A 8eporL by Lhe u.S. CllmaLe Change Sclence rogram and Lhe
SubcommlLLee on Clobal Change 8esearch [8ader u.C. eL a.].
ueparLmenL of Lnergy, Cfflce of 8lologlcal and LnvlronmenLal
8esearch, WashlngLon, u.C., uSA, 124pp.
Avallable onllne aL: hLLp://www.cllmaLesclence.gov/Llbrary/sap/sap3-
1/flnal-reporL/

Cn cllmaLe change lmpacLs by secLor (waLer, agrlculLure,
ecosysLems, healLh, lnfrasLrucLure, socleLy) and for Lhe
SouLheasL and oLher reglons of Lhe u.S.:
GLC8AL CLIMA1L CnANGL IMAC1S IN 1nL UNI1LD S1A1LS
u.S. Clobal CllmaLe Change 8esearch rogram, 2009. Cambrldge
unlverslLy ress, 192 pp.
Avallable onllne aL: hLLp://www.globalchange.gov/uslmpacLs/

Cn synLheslzlng lnformaLlon abouL cllmaLe change lmpacLs Lo
lnform declslon-maklng and pollcy:
WAkMING WCkLD: IMAC1S 8 DLGkLL
naLlonal Academy of Sclences. 2011. CllmaLe SLablllzaLlon Scenarlos:
Lmlsslons, ConcenLraLlons, and lmpacLs over uecades Lo Mlllennla.
Avallable onllne aL:
hLLp://dels.nas.edu/resources/sLaLlc-asseLs/maLerlals-based-on-
reporLs/bookleLs/warmlng_world_flnal.pdf

31

.OOGDEQ\] BHQ6.>G QDEQB.>C1/ IC1 EGH.^.1G

>G6OG1.>51G
.((=#4 #(0 /)#:,(#4 ^'($)& _EÌaF /<&'(9 _6.6aF /=;;)& _``.aF #(0 I#44 _/CDa
Naximum, minimum, anu aveiage tempeiatuie
Tempeiatuie iange (aveiage maximum minus aveiage minimum)
Stanuaiu ueviation of maximum anu minimum tempeiatuie
G?$&);):
Colu nights: uays pei yeai with minimum tempeiatuie below 2u
o
F anu S2
o
F
oi below the 1
st
anu S
th
peicentile of the histoiical uistiibution
Bot uays: uays pei yeai with maximum tempeiatuie above 9u, 9S, 1uu, 1uS,
anu 11u
o
F oi above the 9S
th
anu 99
th
peicentile of the histoiical uistiibution
Waim nights: nights pei yeai with minimum tempeiatuie above 8u, 8S, anu
9u
o
F
Numbei of heat wave events lasting 4 oi moie uays (as uefineu by Kunkel et
al. 1999)
Longest stietch of uays with maximum tempeiatuie ovei 9u, 9S, anu 1uu
o
F
C$%)&
Bate of last fiost in spiing anu fiist fiost in fall
Length of fiost-fiee giowing season
Annual cooling uegiee-uays
Annual heating uegiee-uays

O1GBQOQ>.>QCD
.((=#4 #(0 /)#:,(#4 ^'($)& _EÌaF /<&'(9 _6.6aF /=;;)& _``.aF #(0 I#44 _/CDa
Annual anu seasonal cumulative piecipitation
Cumulative piecipitation foi S-, 6-, anu 12-month iunning means, beginning
in each month of the yeai
G?$&);):
Piecipitation intensity: annual piecipitation uiviueu by the numbei of wet
uays pei yeai

32
Beavy piecipitation: uays pei yeai with cumulative piecipitation exceeuing
u.S, 1, 2, S, 4, S, 6, 7, anu 8 inches in 24 houis
Extieme events: amount of piecipitation falling in the wettest 1, S, anu 14
uays in 1, 2, anu 1u yeais
Numbei of futuie events exceeuing the histoiical wettest 2, 4, anu 7 uays
C$%)&
Total numbei of uiy uays each yeai (piecipitation < u.u1 inches)
Longest uiy peiiou
Stanuaiuizeu Piecipitation Inuex (a measuie of wetness anu uiought)

*56QEQ>7 #(0 *7A1QE QDEQB.>C1/
.((=#4 #(0 /)#:,(#4 ^'($)& _EÌaF /<&'(9 _6.6aF /=;;)& _``.aF #(0 I#44 _/CDa
Bew point tempeiatuie
Relative humiuity
Summei heat inuex
C$%)&
Peicentage of piecipitation falling as iain veisus snow
Numbei of hot uiy uays pei yeai (piecipitation < u.u1" anu maximum
tempeiatuie > 9u
o
F)
Numbei of cool wet uays pei yeai (piecipitation > u.u1" anu maximum
tempeiatuie < 6S
o
F)

33
1GIG1GDBG/

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