Aspen Publishers

Aspen Publishers
Blue Chip ®
Financial Forecasts
Top Analysts’ Forecasts Of U.S. And Foreign Interest Rates, Currency Values
And The Factors That Influence Them
Vol. 28, No. 10, October 1, 2009
Wolters Kluwer
Law & Business
BLUE CHIP TABLE OF CONTENTS
FINANCIAL
FORECASTS®
Domestic Commentary p. 1
EXECUTIVE EDITOR:
RANDELL E. MOORE
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Kansas City, MO 64111
Domestic Summary Table –Table of consensus forecasts of
Phone (816) 931-0131 U.S. interest rates and key economic assumptions p. 2
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international interest rates and foreign exchange values p. 3
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culation news monthly. No statement in this issue
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The editor and Aspen Publishers, while consider-
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© 2009 Aspen Publishers. All Rights Reserved.
This material may not be used, published, broad- List Of Contributing Economists – To Domestic and International
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.
Consensus Still Sees Trend-Like Real GDP Growth Over Coming Year
Domestic Commentary Confidence remains high that the U.S. By late this year or early next, the y/y change in both measures of
economy began growing again this summer, ending the longest, inflation is widely expected to become positive again, but largely
deepest recession in the post World War II era. Indeed, more than because of less favorable year ago comparisons. On the other hand,
90% of our panelists say the recession has ended. Moreover, consen- the y/y change in inflation excluding food and energy prices is
sus forecasts of near-term economic growth again moved higher over widely expected to continue working its way lower for the time be-
the past month, extending the streak of upgrades that began in April. ing. For example, the core CPI was up 1.9% y/y in April but has
Nonetheless, the consensus continues to only foresee trend-like real declined each and every month since to stand at 1.4% in August.
GDP growth of 2 ¾% or so over the coming year, well short of the While the overall CPI likely rose at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate
rebounds that followed prior recessions in the past 60 years. of 2.7% in the current quarter, the consensus continues to foresee
Among the data released since our last survey that helped lift expec- growth rates of 2.0% or less between Q4 2009 and Q4 2010.
tations of near-term GDP growth was a four-point jump in the Insti- In light of uncertainty about the strength of the recovery and the
tute of Supply Management’s August index of manufacturing activity expectation that inflation will remain subdued, the consensus contin-
to 52.9, matching its highest reading since July 2006. Other August ues to believe the Federal Reserve will move very cautiously in un-
reports also exceeded expectations, including a 2.7% surge in retail winding its monetary accommodation. The policy statement issued at
sales, a 0.8% jump in industrial production and a 1.5% increase in the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s September
housing starts that left them at their highest level in nine months. 22nd-23rd meeting did nothing to dissuade panelists of that belief.
Moreover, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indica- Policymakers’ discussion of the economic outlook was a bit more
tors rose for a fifth consecutive month in August and is up 4.7% over optimistic, noting signs of a pick-up in economic activity and that
the past five months, the strongest such gain since early 1983. long-term inflation expectations remain tame. The committee also
The news, however, was not uniformly upbeat. The unemployment reiterated its commitment to leave the target federal funds rate un-
rate jumped 0.3 of a percentage point to 9.7% in August. The trade changed “for an extended period”.
deficit widened by a much larger than expected $4.5 billion in July. The most notable news from the meeting, word that the Fed would
Sales of new single-family homes rose a smaller-than-expected 0.7% purchase a "total" of $1.25 trillion of agency-issued mortgage-backed
in August while sales of existing homes actually fell 2.7%, accompa- securities (MBS). Earlier statements said the Fed would buy "up to"
nied by a second-consecutive drop in the median sales price. New $1.25 trillion. However, the FOMC retained the "up to" phrasing for
orders for durable goods unexpectedly declined by 2.4% in August its planned purchases of $200 billion of agency debt. The FOMC also
and nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft dropped announced it would slow the rate of buying for both programs and
1.9% to a fresh cycle low. Early indications suggest unit sales of cars extend the purchases through the first quarter of next year. The day
and light trucks fell dramatically in September following the “cash following conclusion of the FOMC meeting the Fed announced it
for clunker” induced increases in July and August. would reduce the size of upcoming Term Auction Facility (TAF) and
Key factors expected to cap the strength of the economic recovery Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) operations in light of im-
over the next six quarters include: an unusually slow improvement in proving market conditions. Neither represent a tightening of policy
labor market conditions; only modest gains in consumer spending, but rather administrative moves designed to align the size of lending
restrained by tepid growth in personal income, tight credit and a de- facilities with underlying demand.
sire by households to pare debt; an atypically muted recovery in resi- Given the unanimous vote at the FOMC meeting, credit markets were
dential investment due to still rising home foreclosures and persis- taken aback by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s hawkish op-ed in the
tently high inventories of unsold existing homes; a sharp further pull- September 25th Wall Street Journal. In it, Warsh said “prudent risk
back in commercial construction; and limited improvement in capital management indicates that policy likely will need to begin
spending resulting from the excess capacity that exists in many sec- normalization before it is obvious that it is necessary, possibly with
tors and still-tight credit for small and mid-size businesses. greater force than is customary”. Warsh added that “If "whatever it
As for the specifics of our September 23rd-24th survey results, the takes" was appropriate to arrest the panic, the refrain might turn out
consensus predicts real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 3.2% in to be equally necessary at a stage during the recovery to ensure the
Q3 and will grow at a 2.5% clip in the final quarter of this year and Federal Reserve's institutional credibility.” Short-term rates jumped
in Q1 2010. The Q3 forecast increased 0.9 of a percentage point over and long-term yields swooned in reaction to the op-ed. However, in
the past month, the Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 estimates rose 0.2 of a the Q&A after a speech later that day, Warsh said his hawkish tone in
percentage point and 0.1 of a point, respectively. Consensus forecasts the op-ed did not imply an imminent change in Fed policy.
of real GDP growth in subsequent quarters were little changed this Consensus Forecast The consensus still predicts the FOMC will
month. Real GDP is predicted to expand at a 2.7% rate in Q2 2010, leave its target federal funds rate at 0.0%-0.25% until late next
0.1 of a point less than predicted last month. Real GDP is forecast to spring. By the end of 2010, the consensus thinks the FOMC will have
grow at a 2.8% rate in both Q3 and Q4 of next year, the Q3 projec- raised its target rate by about 100 basis points. In the interim, the Fed
tion 0.1 of a point better than predicted last month. Our panelists’ is expected to continue unwinding its various lending facilities and
first stab at predicting real GDP’s growth rate in Q1 2011 produced a purchase programs. The Treasury yield curve is expected to flatten
consensus forecast of 2.9%. over the coming year as short-term market rates increase faster than
long-term yields. The consensus assumes the dramatic narrowing in
Given the subdued pace of recovery, inflationary pressures are ex-
corporate spreads seen over the past several months may struggle to
pected to remain relatively muted over the next year, according to the
continue (see page 2 for U.S. consensus forecasts).
consensus. Since December 2008 and March 2009, respectively, the
Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have Special Questions About 70% of the panelists think that by the end
contracted on a year-over-year basis, primarily the result of the steep of this year Congress will extend, expand or both the $8,000 federal
run-up and subsequent pull-back in energy and food prices. In July, tax credit program for first-time homebuyers. However, just 42%
the 12-month decline in the PPI widened to -6.8% while the decline believe Congress should do so. About 60% of the panelists say the
in the CPI reached -2.1%. In August, however, the y/y change in the trade deficit will widen in the second half of this year; almost three-
PPI narrowed to -4.3% while the change in the CPI shrank to 1.5%. quarters think it will widen in 2010 (see page 14).
2 BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS OCTOBER 1, 2009
Consensus Forecasts Of U.S. Interest Rates And Key Assumptions1

-------------------------------------History----------------------------------------- Consensus Forecasts-Quarterly Avg.
---------Average For Week End-------- ----Average For Month---- Latest Q* 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
Interest Rates Sep. 25 Sep. 18 Sep. 11 Sep. 4 Aug. July June 3Q 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
Federal Funds Rate 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.21 0.16 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.5
LIBOR, 3-mo. 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.34 0.42 0.52 0.62 0.41 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8
Commercial Paper, 1-mo. 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6
Treasury bill, 3-mo. 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5
Treasury bill, 6-mo. 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.27 0.28 0.31 0.25 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7
Treasury bill, 1 yr. 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.42 0.46 0.48 0.51 0.45 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9
Treasury note, 2 yr. 1.00 0.98 0.92 0.93 1.12 1.02 1.18 1.04 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5
Treasury note, 5 yr. 2.44 2.43 2.34 2.33 2.57 2.46 2.71 2.48 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5
Treasury note, 10 yr. 3.46 3.46 3.41 3.37 3.59 3.56 3.72 3.53 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4
Treasury note, 30 yr. 4.21 4.24 4.25 4.18 4.37 4.41 4.52 4.34 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1
Corporate Aaa bond 5.16 5.15 5.18 5.12 5.26 5.41 5.61 5.28 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8
Corporate Baa bond 6.31 6.36 6.39 6.37 6.58 7.09 7.50 6.67 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0
State & Local bonds 4.04 4.20 4.33 4.37 4.60 4.72 4.81 4.50 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0
Home mortgage rate 5.04 5.04 5.07 5.08 5.19 5.22 5.42 5.15 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9
----------------------------------------History------------------------------------------- Consensus Forecasts-Quarterly
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q* 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
Key Assumptions 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
Major Currency Index 73.3 72.0 70.9 73.5 81.3 82.7 79.4 75.4 75.2 75.1 74.6 74.6 74.9 75.2
Real GDP 2.1 -0.7 1.5 -2.7 -5.4 -6.4 -1.0 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9
GDP Price Index 2.3 1.9 1.8 4.0 0.1 1.9 0.0 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0
Consumer Price Index 5.8 4.5 4.5 6.2 -8.3 -2.4 1.3 2.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.1
Forecasts for interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s Major Currency Index represent averages for the quarter. Forecasts for Real GDP, GDP Price Index and Consumer Price
Index are seasonally-adjusted annual rates of change (saar). Individual panel members’ forecasts are on pages 4 through 9. Historical data for interest rates except LIBOR is from
Federal Reserve Release (FRSR) H.15. LIBOR quotes available from The Wall Street Journal. Interest rate definitions are the same as those in FRSR H.15. Treasury yields are
reported on a constant maturity basis. Historical data for the Fed’ Major Currency Index is from FRSR H.10 and G.5. Historical data for Real GDP and GDP Chained Price Index
are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Consumer Price Index (CPI) history is from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve U.S. 3-Mo. T-Bills & 10-Yr. T-Note Yield
Week ended September 25, 2009 and Year Ago vs. (Quarterly Average) History Forecast
4Q 2009 and 1Q 2011 Consensus Forecasts 6.00 6.00
5.00 5.00 5.50 5.50
Year Ago 10-Yr. T-Note Yield. Consensus
4.50 Week ended 9/25 4.50 5.00 5.00
4.00 Consensus 1Q 2011 4.00 4.50 4.50
Consensus 4Q 2009 4.00 4.00
3.50 3.50
3.50 3.50
3.00 3.00
Percent
Percent
3.00 3.00
2.50 2.50
2.50 2.50
2.00 2.00
2.00 2.00
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Consensus
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
3-Month T-Bill Yield
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3mo 6mo 1yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 30yr 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q
Maturities 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Corporate Bond Spreads U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

As of week ended September 25, 2009 As of week ended September 25, 2009
700 700 400 400
650 Baa Corporate Bond 650 10-Year T-Bond
350 350
600 Yield minus 10-Year 600 minus 3-Month T-Bill
550 T-Bond Yield 550 300 300
(Constant Maturity Yields)
500 500 250 250
450 Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 450
200 200
Basis Points
400 400
Basis Points
minus 10-Year T-Bond Yield

350 350 150 150
300 300 100 100
250 250
200 200 50 50
150 150 0 0
100 100
-50 -50
50 50
0 0 -100 -100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
OCTOBER 1, 2009 BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS 3
International Commentary The past month delivered a mix bag of

-------------3-Month Interest Rates1---------------- news for global financial markets to chew on. Data continued to indi-
-----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts cate the global economy will emerge from recession during the second
Month Year Months From Now: half of this year. The rebound has been especially striking in non-
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12 Japan Asia, but improving activity, if sometimes more uneven, con-
U.S. 0.78 1.00 4.47 0.40 0.51 1.01 tinued to be see in North American and European economies. As a
Japan 0.51 0.46 1.02 0.44 0.46 0.53 result, forecasts of economic growth over the forecast horizon are still
U.K. 0.83 0.85 6.31 0.71 0.86 1.35 rising. Nonetheless, most analysts still predict the recovery in Western
Switzerland 0.45 0.44 2.80 0.30 0.37 0.60 economies will be more subdued than is usual given the considerable
Canada 0.68 0.70 4.00 0.57 0.72 1.30 headwinds (tighter credit, persistently high levels of unemployment,
Australia 3.80 3.80 7.74 3.40 3.55 3.83 etc.) that are likely to prevail well into next year. That would be espe-
Eurozone 0.78 0.95 5.06 0.83 0.93 1.23 cially true, many argue, if policymakers prematurely begin an un-
winding of the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place over
-----------10-Yr. Government Bond Yields1------ the past year, dampening prospects for a self-sustaining upturn in
-----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts economic activity.
Month Year Months From Now: As for the markets, global equity indices generally moved higher over
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12 the past month though there were some signs of back-tracking as Sep-
U.S. 3.41 3.45 3.84 3.66 3.96 4.33 tember wound down. Sovereign bond markets were directionless, with
Germany 3.34 3.26 4.25 3.41 3.49 3.70 yields up a little in some nations and down elsewhere. However,
Japan 1.34 1.33 1.48 1.44 1.49 1.63 spread product generally continued to perform well, especially were
U.K. 3.72 3.55 4.67 3.80 3.96 4.29 governments were acting as financiers. Perhaps the most notable de-
France 3.59 3.51 4.50 3.68 3.75 3.94 velopment was in the foreign exchange markets where the U.S. dollar
Italy 4.06 4.03 4.92 4.19 4.28 4.45 continued to slide, dropping to it lowest level in more than a year
Switzerland 2.11 2.02 2.84 2.07 2.32 2.52 against many currencies.
Canada 3.43 3.40 3.70 3.67 3.97 4.42 The European Central Bank (ECB) left its refi rate unchanged at 1.0%
Australia 5.44 5.47 5.78 5.50 5.60 5.85 at the September meeting and also announced that its next 12-month
Spain 3.85 3.77 4.71 3.98 4.04 4.20
tender would again be allocated at 1.0%, signaling to markets its in-
Eurozone 3.89 3.85 4.67 3.50 3.58 3.85
tention to keep rates lows for the foreseeable future. While ECB offi-
cials have warned against overdone optimism about the growth out-
----------------Foreign Exchange Rates1----------- look, recent data still point to recover. PMI data for both the
-----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts manufacturing and service sectors continues to improve with the latter
Month Year Months From Now: in September indicating out-right growth. Factory orders are up and
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12 business sentiment is still increasing. However, retail sales fell in July,
U.S. 73.785 74.882 73.854 79.1 80.3 82.1 and possibly August, after being unchanged in June, demand
Japan 89.74 94.60 105.80 92.5 93.5 96.8 dampened by still rising unemployment and damp income growth.
U.K. 1.5945 1.6503 1.8558 1.71 1.72 1.72 The ECB is not expected to raise interest rates until next spring.
Switzerland 1.0274 1.0613 1.0813 1.07 1.08 1.09 At its September meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) held its asset
Canada 1.0892 1.0799 1.0355 1.04 1.06 1.11 purchase target steady at 175 billion pounds and the repo rate was left
Australia 0.8656 0.8349 0.8385 0.88 0.88 0.89 unchanged. Minutes from the meeting indicated there was no discus-
Euro 1.4686 1.4305 1.4737 1.49 1.50 1.48 sion of lowering the interest rate paid on reserves held at the Bank of
England. However, speculation on a BoE deposit rate cut continued
Consensus Consensus when City economists were invited to a special meeting at the bank.
3-Month Rates 10-Year Gov’t Governor King had previously acknowledged the BoE was looking
vs. U.S. Rate Yields vs. U.S. Yield into the possibility of following the Riksbank and cutting its deposit
Now In 12 Mo. Now In 12 Mo. rate to offer negative rates on bank reserves to encourage banks to
Japan -0.27 -0.48 Germany -0.07 -0.63 lend rather than to hoard the cash. Real GDP is expected to expand
U.K. 0.05 0.34 Japan -2.07 -2.70 this quarter, snapping a five-quarter string of declines. However,
Switzerland -0.33 -0.41 U.K. 0.31 -0.04 growth of just 1.0% or so still is expected in 2010.
Canada -0.12 0.29 France 0.18 -0.39 The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate at 0.25% in September
Australia 3.02 2.81 Italy 0.65 0.12 and maintained its conditional commitment to leave rates unchanged
Eurozone 0.00 0.21 Switzerland -1.30 -1.81 until June of next year. While the bank has voiced more optimism
Canada 0.02 0.09 about GDP growth going forward the persistent strength of the loonie
Australia 2.03 1.53 recently prompted BoC president Carney to threaten the use quantita-
Spain 0.44 -0.12 tive easing to combat its upward trajectory.
Eurozone 0.48 -0.48
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its call rate at 0.1% on Septem-
Forecasts of individual panel members are on pages 10 and 11. Defini- ber 17th where it’s been stuck since last December. While the BoJ
tions of variables are as follows: 1Three month currency interest rates. noted "economic conditions are showing signs of recovery" and that
Short term rates are call for the US Dollar and Yen, others: two day’s financial conditions "increasingly (are) showing signs of improve-
notice. Government bonds are yields to maturity. Foreign exchange rate ment," the "risks to the economy are still on the downside.” Real GDP
forecasts for U.K., Australia and the Euro are currencies per U.S. dollar. grew at a downwardly revised rate of just 2.3% in Q2 versus the 3.7%
For the U.S dollar, forecasts are of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s originally estimated. Prices continue to fall at an alarming clip with
Major Currency Index. the national core CPI down a record -2.2% y/y in July and headed
lower (see 10 and 11 for individual panel members’ forecasts).
Fourth Quarter 2009

Interest Rate Forecasts Key Assumptions
----------------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter--------------------------------------------------------------- Avg. For ------(Q-Q % Change)------
Blue Chip -------------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------------ ------------Intermediate-Term----------- -----------------Long-Term------------------ ---Qtr.--- ------------(SAAR)-----------
Financial Forecasts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 A. B. C. D.
Panel Members Federal Prime LIBOR Com. Treas. Treas. Treas. Treas. Treas. Treas. Treas. Aaa Baa State & Home Fed's Major GDP Cons.
Funds Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp. Corp. Local Mtg. Currency Real Price Price
Rate Rate 3-Mo. 1-Mo. 3-Mo. 6-Mo. 1-Yr. 2-Yr. 5-Yr. 10-Yr. 30-Yr. Bond Bond Bonds Rate $ Index GDP Index Index
Stone Harbor Investment Partners 0.3 H 3.3 H 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.7 3.7 4.4 6.3 H 9.2 H na 5.2 74.0 1.5 1.2 2.5
Bank of Toyko-Mitsubishi UFJ 0.3 H 3.3 H 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 L 1.4 3.1 4.1 H 4.8 5.1 6.3 4.5 5.7 H 72.0 L 3.8 2.7 2.0
Swiss Re 0.3 H 3.3 H 0.3 0.6 H 0.1 L 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.2 6.6 na 5.4 na 1.9 2.1 0.4 L
Scotiabank 0.3 H 3.3 H na na 0.3 L na na 1.1 2.6 3.8 4.5 5.2 6.5 4.5 5.3 na 2.0 1.0 1.2
MacroFin Analytics 0.2 3.3 H 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 H 0.6 1.1 2.6 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.9 4.4 5.1 76.0 1.5 0.9 1.2
PNC Financial Services Corp. 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.3 6.5 4.7 5.3 76.0 1.8 1.8 2.2
RDQ Economics 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 0.2 0.3 H 0.4 H 0.6 1.1 2.5 3.8 4.5 5.3 6.3 4.6 5.2 74.0 2.1 2.8 H 2.5
Woodley Park Research 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.5 5.1 H 5.1 6.4 4.3 5.1 76.2 3.2 0.2 1.2
The Northern Trust Company 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 na 0.2 na 0.5 1.0 2.4 3.6 4.4 na na na 5.2 na 1.9 2.3 2.5
Societe Generale 0.2 3.3 H 0.3 na 0.2 0.3 na 1.1 1.1 L 3.7 4.4 5.4 6.9 na 5.4 73.0 4.0 1.2 2.4
Russell Investments 0.2 3.3 H 0.2 L 0.2 0.2 0.4 H 0.7 H 1.2 2.6 3.5 4.5 5.2 6.2 4.2 L 5.1 74.0 2.2 1.4 1.3
Conning & Company 0.2 3.3 H na 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.5 3.5 4.2 5.2 6.5 4.5 5.3 74.0 2.5 0.5 1.4
Fannie Mae 0.2 3.3 H na na 0.2 na 0.7 H na na 3.5 4.1 5.3 na na na na 2.4 0.4 1.7
Wayne Hummer Investments 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 L 1.4 2.7 3.7 4.3 5.3 6.4 4.3 5.1 79.5 2.4 1.4 1.6
Thredgold Economic Assoc. 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.5 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.9 4.7 5.2 75.0 2.8 1.5 1.8
Kellner Economic Advisers 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.6 3.6 4.4 5.4 7.0 5.0 5.5 76.0 2.5 1.5 2.2
Mesirow Financial 0.2 3.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 H 0.7 H 1.3 2.3 3.6 4.3 5.4 6.8 4.7 5.3 76.6 2.4 0.1 1.4
Woodworth Holdings 0.2 3.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 L 1.0 2.4 3.4 4.2 5.2 6.4 4.2 L 5.1 72.5 3.4 0.7 1.7
Cycledata Corp. 0.2 3.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 L 0.2 L 0.5 0.9 L 2.4 3.5 4.2 5.3 6.5 4.3 5.1 75.0 4.0 1.6 2.5
Action Economics 0.2 3.3 H 0.5 0.3 0.3 H 0.4 H 0.6 1.2 2.5 3.7 4.3 5.2 6.4 4.4 5.1 73.8 2.0 1.6 2.2
RBS Securities 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 0.2 0.3 H 0.4 H 0.7 H 1.2 2.6 3.7 4.5 5.4 6.6 4.4 5.2 74.5 2.1 2.0 2.2
SunTrust Banks 0.2 3.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 L 0.3 0.4 L 1.0 2.5 3.4 4.2 5.2 6.3 5.5 H 4.5 L 74.5 4.5 H 0.5 2.4
ClearView Economics 0.2 3.3 H 0.3 0.2 0.1 L 0.2 L 0.4 L 1.0 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.2 6.3 4.3 5.1 73.8 4.0 2.0 2.4
Nomura Securities, Inc. 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 L 1.2 3.2 H 3.5 4.3 5.1 6.2 na 5.1 75.0 2.1 0.7 1.1
Chmura Economics & Analytics 0.2 3.3 H 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 L 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.6 4.3 5.4 na na 5.1 76.8 0.5 1.3 0.9
Goldman Sachs & Co. 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 na 0.2 na na 1.0 2.4 3.3 4.0 5.5 na na 5.3 na 3.0 -0.2 L 1.5
Daiwa Securities America 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.2 6.4 4.2 L 5.1 74.0 3.0 2.0 1.8
Loomis, Sayles & Company 0.2 3.3 H 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.6 4.5 5.2 73.3 2.6 0.2 2.2
Wells Fargo 0.2 3.3 H 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 L 1.1 2.6 3.6 4.4 5.5 6.8 4.7 5.2 77.0 2.5 0.8 0.7
Wells Capital Management 0.2 3.3 H 0.2 L 0.1 L 0.1 L 0.3 0.7 H 1.2 2.6 3.9 4.4 5.1 6.1 L 4.3 5.5 74.1 3.0 2.0 2.3
DePrince & Assoc. 0.2 3.2 1.3 H 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.5 4.3 5.3 6.4 4.4 5.2 76.1 0.4 1.5 1.0
JPMorgan Privare Wealth Mgt. 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 L 0.2 L 0.4 L 1.0 2.5 3.5 4.2 5.2 6.4 4.6 5.2 74.2 2.7 1.3 1.7
Comerica Bank 0.1 L 3.3 H 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.6 3.7 4.4 5.6 7.4 4.6 5.2 78.3 3.0 2.1 3.2 H
BMO Capital Markets 0.1 L 3.3 H 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 L 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.2 6.4 4.2 L 5.1 74.0 3.1 0.7 1.6
Moody's Capital Markets 0.1 L 3.3 H 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.5 4.4 5.1 74.5 2.3 1.5 2.0
Economist Intelligence Unit 0.1 L 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 L 1.1 2.5 3.5 4.3 na na na 5.1 na 1.6 na 0.8
Moody's Economy.com 0.1 L 3.2 0.8 0.3 0.3 H 0.4 H 0.6 1.2 2.7 4.0 4.8 6.2 8.3 na 5.5 na 2.1 1.5 1.1
J.W. Coons Advisors LLC 0.1 L 3.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 H 0.4 H 0.5 1.0 2.3 3.3 4.1 5.0 L 6.2 na 5.0 73.8 3.4 1.0 1.2
Argus Research 0.1 L 3.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 L 0.9 L 2.4 3.5 4.3 5.3 6.5 4.5 5.1 75.3 -0.1 2.2 2.9
GLC Financial Economics 0.1 L 3.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 L 0.2 L 0.4 L 1.0 2.4 3.4 4.3 5.2 6.5 4.5 5.0 74.2 2.6 1.4 2.2
J.P. Morgan Chase 0.1 L na 0.5 na 0.2 na na 0.9 L 2.0 3.0 L 3.7 L na na na na na 3.0 0.9 2.2
UBS 0.1 L na 0.5 na 0.2 na na 1.6 H 2.9 3.8 4.4 na na na na na 3.0 1.2 1.1
Banc of America-Merrill Lynch 0.1 L na 0.4 na 0.2 na na 1.0 2.5 4.0 4.6 na na na na na 3.5 1.3 2.9
Standard & Poor's Corp. 0.1 L 3.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.6 3.6 na 5.4 6.7 4.7 5.2 87.6 H 1.3 -0.1 1.3
Georgia State University 0.1 L 3.3 H na na 0.2 0.2 L 0.4 L 1.0 2.5 3.6 4.3 5.3 6.5 na 5.2 na -0.2 L 0.2 1.2
Naroff Economic Advisors 0.1 L 3.3 H 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.4 H 0.5 1.1 2.6 3.7 4.4 5.3 6.6 4.5 5.2 73.8 2.8 1.1 3.0
Barclays Capital 0.1 L 3.3 H 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 H 0.6 1.3 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.5 7.0 5.0 5.5 na 4.0 1.1 2.6
Nat'l Assn. of Realtors 0.1 L 3.1 L 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 H 0.7 H 1.2 2.6 3.5 4.2 5.4 6.8 4.9 5.5 na 1.8 1.3 1.8
October Consensus 0.2 3.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.6 4.5 5.2 75.2 2.5 1.2 1.8
Top 10 Avg. 0.2 3.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.8 3.8 4.6 5.6 7.3 4.8 5.5 78.0 3.8 2.2 2.7
Bottom 10 Avg. 0.1 3.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.4 3.7 5.1 6.3 4.3 5.0 73.4 1.0 0.3 0.9
September Consensus 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.6 3.7 4.5 5.5 7.0 4.8 5.3 76.1 2.3 1.4 1.8
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 9 4 35 25 36 32 31 33 34 38 34 36 32 26 28 25 14 18 16
Same 37 39 6 11 12 8 9 10 9 8 9 5 4 4 9 5 7 19 12
Up 2 2 3 3 0 1 2 4 4 2 4 2 4 3 7 5 27 10 20
Diffusion Index 43 % 48 % 14 % 22 % 13 % 12 % 15 % 19 % 18 % 13 % 18 % 10 % 15 % 15 % 26 % 21 % 64 % 41 % 54 %
First Quarter 2010

--------------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------------- Avg. For ------(Q-Q % Change)------
Woodworth Holdings 0.5 H 3.5 H 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 2.7 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.5 4.3 5.2 71.0 3.3 1.0 1.7
Action Economics 0.3 3.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.5 4.7 5.2 73.3 2.3 2.3 1.6
RBS Securities 0.3 3.3 0.7 0.3 0.6 H 0.9 H 1.3 H 1.8 3.1 4.1 5.0 5.6 6.9 4.7 5.6 76.0 3.7 2.8 2.0
Russell Investments 0.3 3.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7 3.5 4.4 5.2 6.2 4.1 L 5.1 73.7 2.2 1.4 1.4
Stone Harbor Investment Partners 0.3 3.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.5 7.9 na 5.4 72.0 1.3 2.3 2.3
The Northern Trust Company 0.3 3.3 0.5 na 0.2 na 0.6 1.1 2.4 3.7 4.5 na na na 5.2 na 1.9 2.3 2.5
Bank of Toyko-Mitsubishi UFJ 0.3 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 L 1.5 3.2 4.2 4.9 5.2 6.4 4.5 5.7 70.0 L 2.9 2.8 2.3
Swiss Re 0.3 3.3 0.3 0.6 H 0.1 L 0.3 0.5 1.0 L 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.2 6.4 na 5.4 na 2.1 3.5 H 1.4
Scotiabank 0.3 3.3 na na 0.4 na na 1.5 3.0 4.3 H 4.8 5.3 6.6 4.6 5.3 na 5.0 1.5 1.9
ClearView Economics 0.2 3.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.8 3.7 4.4 5.3 6.4 4.4 5.2 72.5 4.2 2.0 2.4
DePrince & Assoc. 0.2 3.2 1.2 H 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.3 5.4 6.4 4.4 5.3 77.3 1.4 1.9 1.7
MacroFin Analytics 0.2 3.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.7 3.9 4.5 5.2 7.1 4.5 5.1 76.5 1.8 1.0 0.8
PNC Financial Services Corp. 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 L 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.3 6.5 4.7 5.3 74.0 2.5 1.8 2.2
RDQ Economics 0.2 3.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.7 4.2 5.0 5.5 6.7 5.0 5.7 73.0 2.2 2.7 2.7
Woodley Park Research 0.2 3.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.4 5.0 5.0 6.2 4.3 5.0 76.9 3.4 1.4 0.2
Wells Fargo 0.2 3.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 2.7 3.7 4.5 5.6 6.8 4.8 5.3 78.5 2.0 0.9 1.1
Societe Generale 0.2 3.3 0.3 na 0.2 0.3 na 1.2 1.4 L 3.9 4.3 5.4 6.7 na 5.4 72.0 2.6 1.0 0.9
Fannie Mae 0.2 3.3 na na 0.2 na 1.0 na na 3.6 4.2 5.3 na na 5.8 H na 2.6 1.0 1.1
Conning & Company 0.2 3.3 na 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 L 2.6 3.7 4.4 5.4 6.7 4.5 5.5 74.0 1.5 1.0 1.6
Wayne Hummer Investments 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.6 2.8 3.8 4.5 5.4 6.5 4.4 5.2 79.0 2.7 1.6 1.7
Mesirow Financial 0.2 3.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.7 4.4 5.5 6.9 4.8 5.4 76.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 L
Kellner Economic Advisers 0.2 3.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.8 3.8 4.6 5.6 7.2 5.0 5.7 75.0 -1.5 L 1.6 2.0
Cycledata Corp. 0.2 3.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 L 2.5 3.6 4.3 5.4 6.5 4.4 5.2 75.0 3.5 2.0 2.9
J.W. Coons Advisors LLC 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 2.4 3.4 4.3 5.1 6.3 na 5.1 72.3 3.3 1.3 2.4
SunTrust Banks 0.2 3.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 L 0.3 0.4 L 1.0 L 2.5 3.4 4.2 5.2 6.3 5.5 H 4.5 L 74.1 5.4 H 0.8 2.5
Nomura Securities, Inc. 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.5 3.4 H 3.7 4.4 5.2 5.9 L na 5.2 77.0 2.3 1.0 1.1
Naroff Economic Advisors 0.2 3.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 3.2 4.1 4.8 5.8 7.4 4.9 5.5 72.5 1.6 1.4 2.5
Daiwa Securities America 0.2 3.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.7 3.8 4.5 5.4 6.5 4.2 5.4 72.0 2.8 1.8 1.8
Loomis, Sayles & Company 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.8 4.5 5.4 6.6 4.6 5.4 73.3 2.9 1.0 0.8
Goldman Sachs & Co. 0.2 3.3 0.4 na 0.2 na na 1.0 L 2.2 3.1 L 3.8 L 4.8 L na na 5.1 na 2.0 0.0 1.1
Wells Capital Management 0.2 3.3 0.2 L 0.1 L 0.1 L 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.7 3.9 4.4 5.1 6.0 4.2 5.5 74.2 3.5 1.9 1.8
JPMorgan Privare Wealth Mgt. 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 L 0.2 L 0.4 L 1.0 L 2.5 3.5 4.2 5.2 6.4 4.6 5.2 74.0 2.8 1.2 1.5
Comerica Bank 0.1 L 3.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 7.1 4.6 5.6 82.0 4.5 2.0 1.2
Chmura Economics & Analytics 0.1 L 3.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.8 3.8 4.5 5.6 7.3 4.4 5.3 81.0 2.5 1.0 1.4
BMO Capital Markets 0.1 L 3.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 L 0.7 1.6 2.8 3.8 4.6 5.4 6.5 4.3 5.3 73.5 2.3 1.0 1.5
Moody's Capital Markets 0.1 L 3.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.4 6.6 4.4 5.3 74.8 2.3 1.9 2.3
Economist Intelligence Unit 0.1 L 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.7 4.4 na na na 5.2 na 1.0 na 0.8
Moody's Economy.com 0.1 L 3.2 0.8 0.6 H 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.8 2.5 4.2 5.1 H 6.3 H 8.1 H na 5.8 H na 1.0 -0.4 L 1.6
Argus Research 0.1 L 3.1 L 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 L 2.4 3.7 4.5 5.5 6.3 4.7 5.3 76.0 1.8 2.5 4.8 H
GLC Financial Economics 0.1 L 3.1 L 0.4 0.2 0.1 L 0.3 0.4 L 1.0 L 2.3 3.4 4.2 5.3 6.7 4.5 5.1 73.8 1.5 2.1 2.2
UBS 0.1 L na 0.5 na 0.3 na na 2.0 H 3.1 3.8 4.4 na na na na na 2.5 1.6 1.7
J.P. Morgan Chase 0.1 L na 0.5 na 0.2 na na 1.0 L 2.2 3.3 3.9 na na na na na 3.0 0.8 1.1
Georgia State University 0.1 L 3.3 na na 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 L 2.6 3.6 4.5 5.3 6.7 na 5.2 na 1.0 1.2 0.1
Barclays Capital 0.1 L 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.7 3.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 7.1 5.1 5.8 H na 5.0 1.2 2.2
Nat'l Assn. of Realtors 0.1 L 3.1 L 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.8 3.7 4.4 5.5 6.9 5.1 5.6 na 2.3 1.4 1.9
Standard & Poor's Corp. 0.1 L 3.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.6 3.8 na 5.5 6.8 4.8 5.3 85.1 H 1.7 1.7 1.1
Top 10 Avg. 0.3 3.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.7 7.3 5.0 5.7 79.0 4.2 2.5 2.7
Bottom 10 Avg. 0.1 3.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.2 4.3 5.0 72.1 1.0 0.7 0.7
Down 10 6 34 20 28 28 27 28 27 34 30 33 31 23 27 25 17 13 12
Same 37 38 7 16 17 12 12 14 13 10 12 7 5 7 10 5 9 16 18
Up 1 1 3 3 3 1 3 5 7 4 5 3 4 3 8 5 22 18 18
Diffusion Index 41 % 44 % 15 % 28 % 24 % 17 % 21 % 26 % 29 % 19 % 23 % 15 % 16 % 20 % 29 % 21 % 55 % 55 % 56 %
Second Quarter 2010

Action Economics 0.8 H 3.8 H 1.3 H 0.8 0.9 H 1.1 1.5 2.0 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.5 4.8 5.2 73.3 2.6 1.7 1.3
Woodworth Holdings 0.8 H 3.8 H 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.6 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.3 6.5 4.3 5.2 71.5 4.3 1.2 1.8
Bank of Toyko-Mitsubishi UFJ 0.8 H 3.8 H 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.0 3.4 4.4 5.1 5.3 6.5 4.6 5.9 68.0 L 2.6 2.9 2.0
J.W. Coons Advisors LLC 0.7 3.7 1.1 1.0 H 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.4 6.6 na 5.4 68.6 3.2 0.8 2.7
Wells Capital Management 0.5 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.2 4.7 5.3 6.1 4.4 5.8 74.4 3.2 2.0 2.1
MacroFin Analytics 0.5 3.8 H 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.9 4.0 4.0 5.1 7.2 4.6 5.2 77.5 2.2 1.3 1.0
Daiwa Securities America 0.5 3.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.7 4.0 L 5.7 72.0 2.5 1.6 1.6
Scotiabank 0.5 3.5 na na 0.8 na na 2.0 3.5 4.5 H 5.2 5.4 6.7 4.7 5.4 na 3.0 1.5 1.9
DePrince & Associates 0.4 3.4 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.7 3.8 4.4 5.5 6.5 4.5 5.5 78.1 1.8 2.2 2.3
UBS 0.3 na 0.8 na 0.6 na na 2.5 H 3.2 3.8 4.4 na na na na na 2.8 1.6 -0.6 L
Nat'l Assn. of Realtors 0.3 3.3 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.7 3.1 3.8 4.5 5.6 7.0 5.2 5.7 na 2.5 1.7 2.0
Kellner Economic Advisers 0.3 3.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 3.0 4.0 4.8 5.8 7.4 5.2 5.9 74.0 0.0 L 1.5 1.8
RBS Securities 0.3 3.3 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 H 1.7 H 2.5 H 3.7 H 4.5 H 5.4 H 5.7 7.2 5.0 6.1 H 78.0 4.2 2.0 2.4
Naroff Economic Advisors 0.3 3.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 3.5 4.3 5.1 6.2 7.8 H 5.2 5.8 71.0 2.3 1.7 2.3
Russell Investments 0.3 3.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7 3.6 4.5 5.2 6.2 4.1 5.2 73.4 3.1 1.3 1.5
Societe Generale 0.3 3.3 0.4 na 0.2 0.4 na 1.3 1.5 L 4.1 4.3 5.4 6.7 na 5.5 77.0 3.0 0.9 -0.5
Swiss Re 0.3 3.3 0.3 L 0.6 0.1 L 0.3 L 0.5 L 1.0 L 2.6 3.7 4.4 5.2 6.3 na 5.4 na 2.2 3.1 1.0
GLC Financial Economics 0.2 3.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 L 2.3 3.4 4.3 5.4 6.9 4.5 5.2 73.6 1.6 2.0 2.1
RDQ Economics 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.3 2.9 4.5 H 5.3 5.8 7.0 5.1 6.0 72.0 2.3 2.6 2.8
Barclays Capital 0.2 3.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.3 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.9 7.2 5.1 6.0 na 3.0 1.0 -0.6 L
Wells Fargo 0.2 3.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 3.8 4.6 5.6 6.8 4.8 5.4 80.3 1.8 1.0 1.3
Fannie Mae 0.2 3.3 na na 0.2 na 1.4 na na 3.7 4.3 5.2 na na 5.9 na 3.2 0.6 1.0
Conning & Company 0.2 3.3 na 0.2 L 0.2 0.3 L 0.5 L 1.1 2.8 3.8 4.5 5.4 6.7 4.5 5.6 73.0 2.0 1.0 1.8
Thredgold Economic Assoc. 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 L 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.8 4.6 5.5 7.0 4.7 5.4 75.0 2.8 1.5 1.8
Mesirow Financial 0.2 3.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.8 4.5 5.6 7.0 4.8 5.5 76.4 3.0 0.6 1.0
Cycledata Corp. 0.2 3.2 0.5 0.2 L 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.6 3.6 4.3 5.5 6.6 4.5 5.2 74.0 2.2 2.0 2.5
SunTrust Banks 0.2 3.2 0.3 L 0.3 0.2 0.3 L 0.5 L 1.1 2.6 3.5 4.3 5.2 6.3 5.6 H 4.3 L 72.2 4.0 1.2 2.5
Nomura Securities, Inc. 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.2 L 0.2 0.3 L 0.5 L 1.6 3.4 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.8 L na 5.3 79.0 2.9 0.9 1.1
Loomis, Sayles & Company 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.2 L 0.2 0.3 L 0.9 2.0 2.8 3.9 4.6 5.4 6.6 4.5 5.5 73.3 2.9 0.6 1.0
Goldman Sachs & Co. 0.2 3.3 0.4 na 0.2 na na 1.0 L 2.2 3.0 L 3.7 L 4.5 L na na 5.0 na 2.0 0.4 0.6
Chmura Economics & Analytics 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.2 L 0.2 0.3 L 0.5 L 1.1 2.3 3.4 4.2 5.4 na na 5.0 72.2 1.7 2.2 1.9
JPMorgan Privare Wealth Mgt. 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 L 0.5 L 1.1 2.5 3.6 4.3 5.3 6.4 4.7 5.3 73.8 2.7 1.3 1.6
Comerica Bank 0.1 L 3.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 7.1 4.6 5.6 82.0 4.5 H 2.0 1.2
Moody's Capital Markets 0.1 L 3.3 0.4 0.2 L 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 3.0 3.9 4.6 5.5 6.6 4.4 5.5 75.0 3.4 2.2 2.3
BMO Capital Markets 0.1 L 3.3 0.3 L 0.2 L 0.2 0.3 L 0.9 2.0 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.6 4.3 5.4 73.0 2.5 1.4 2.6
Moody's Economy.com 0.1 L 3.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.1 2.8 4.4 5.2 6.4 H 7.8 H na 6.1 H na 2.0 0.9 1.2
Economist Intelligence Unit 0.1 L 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 L 1.3 2.6 3.8 4.5 na na na 5.3 na 0.9 na 0.8
Argus Research 0.1 L 3.1 L 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 2.5 3.9 4.8 5.5 6.3 4.7 5.5 78.0 1.7 4.0 H 3.9 H
J.P. Morgan Chase 0.1 L na 0.5 na 0.2 na na 1.1 2.4 3.5 4.1 na na na na na 4.0 0.6 1.0
Banc of America-Merrill Lynch 0.1 L na 0.4 na 0.2 na na 1.5 2.8 4.2 4.8 na na na na na 3.3 0.0 L 0.2
Georgia State University 0.1 L 3.3 na na 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.7 3.7 4.6 5.3 6.6 na 5.3 na 1.3 1.2 1.0
Standard & Poor's Corp. 0.1 L 3.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 L 1.1 2.7 3.8 na 5.5 6.8 4.9 5.4 83.4 H 1.6 1.5 1.5
na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Top 10 Avg. 0.6 3.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.3 5.1 5.8 7.3 5.1 5.9 79.2 3.8 2.6 2.7
Bottom 10 Avg. 0.1 3.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.5 4.2 5.1 6.3 4.3 5.0 70.8 1.4 0.6 0.4
Down 17 13 33 20 28 25 27 29 27 32 29 32 29 19 26 25 21 14 14
Same 29 29 8 13 17 12 12 13 12 12 13 8 5 9 12 4 14 18 21
Up 2 2 3 5 3 3 2 5 8 4 5 2 4 3 6 3 13 15 13
Diffusion Index 34 % 38 % 16 % 30 % 24 % 23 % 20 % 24 % 30 % 21 % 24 % 14 % 17 % 24 % 27 % 16 % 42 % 51 % 49 %
Third Quarter 2010

Nat'l Assn. of Realtors 1.5 H 4.5 H 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.8 7.1 5.3 5.8 na 2.6 1.9 2.1
RBS Securities 1.3 4.3 2.4 H 1.7 H 1.7 H 2.3 H 2.7 H 3.2 H 4.1 H 4.8 H 5.6 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 H 82.0 4.5 2.2 2.8
Naroff Economic Advisors 1.3 4.3 1.9 1.7 H 1.7 H 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.9 4.6 5.4 6.5 8.1 H 5.4 6.1 70.4 1.8 2.0 2.6
Bank of Toyko-Mitsubishi UFJ 1.3 4.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.3 3.2 4.2 4.9 5.3 6.5 4.5 5.7 66.0 L 3.1 2.6 2.2
Daiwa Securities America 1.0 4.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.1 5.9 7.0 4.2 L 6.1 71.0 2.5 1.5 1.5
Woodworth Holdings 1.0 4.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 3.2 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.6 4.4 5.3 74.0 5.2 H 1.4 1.8
Scotiabank 1.0 3.8 na na 1.5 na na 2.6 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.5 6.5 4.6 5.5 na 2.5 1.5 2.0
Cycledata Corp. 0.8 3.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.7 3.0 4.1 4.8 5.6 6.7 4.6 5.9 74.0 2.0 2.0 2.5
DePrince & Assoc. 0.7 3.7 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.6 6.6 4.5 5.7 78.7 1.8 2.2 2.4
GLC Financial Economics 0.7 3.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.5 5.9 7.5 4.8 5.8 73.8 1.6 2.1 2.6
UBS 0.6 na 1.1 na 0.9 na na 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.5 na na na na na 3.0 1.6 1.6
Wells Fargo 0.6 3.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.5 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.6 6.8 4.8 5.5 81.0 2.1 1.3 1.5
Conning & Company 0.5 3.8 na 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 3.0 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.7 4.6 5.8 73.0 2.5 1.2 1.8
Georgia State University 0.5 3.6 na na 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.8 3.9 4.8 5.4 6.8 na 5.4 na 1.4 1.4 2.1
Argus Research 0.5 3.5 1.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.6 4.1 5.0 5.5 6.3 4.8 5.5 79.2 1.0 L 4.0 H 3.4 H
JPMorgan Privare Wealth Mgt. 0.5 3.5 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.6 6.8 5.0 5.6 73.9 2.6 1.4 1.9
Chmura Economics & Analytics 0.5 3.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.4 na na 5.3 70.4 2.3 2.3 2.9
Comerica Bank 0.4 3.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.8 7.0 4.6 5.8 84.0 H 4.4 1.1 1.2
Kellner Economic Advisers 0.4 3.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.6 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.6 5.2 6.1 73.0 1.0 L 1.6 1.8
Moody's Capital Markets 0.4 3.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.7 3.2 3.9 4.6 5.5 6.4 4.3 5.5 75.1 2.7 2.3 2.5
Swiss Re 0.4 3.4 0.4 0.7 0.2 L 0.4 0.5 L 1.3 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.4 na 5.7 na 2.9 4.0 1.2
Barclays Capital 0.3 3.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.5 2.6 3.8 4.6 5.0 6.1 7.2 5.5 6.2 na 3.5 1.0 2.4
Economist Intelligence Unit 0.3 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.7 3.9 4.7 na na na 5.6 na 1.8 na 0.8
Societe Generale 0.3 3.3 0.4 na 0.2 L 0.5 na 1.5 1.7 L 4.4 4.4 5.6 6.8 na 5.5 83.0 3.2 1.0 2.4
Moody's Economy.com 0.2 3.2 L 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.1 2.2 3.0 4.7 5.5 6.6 H 7.8 na 6.4 na 2.3 0.7 2.1
RDQ Economics 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 3.1 4.8 H 5.7 H 6.2 7.3 5.2 6.3 71.0 2.2 2.7 2.9
Fannie Mae 0.2 3.3 na na 0.3 na 1.8 na na 3.8 4.4 5.2 na na 6.0 na 3.3 0.4 L 0.7
Mesirow Financial 0.2 3.2 L 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.6 4.0 4.6 5.6 7.0 4.9 5.6 75.9 3.4 0.4 L 0.6
SunTrust Banks 0.2 3.2 L 0.3 L 0.3 0.2 L 0.4 0.5 L 1.2 2.7 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.5 5.7 H 4.0 L 70.0 4.2 1.7 1.9
Nomura Securities, Inc. 0.2 3.3 0.4 0.2 L 0.2 L 0.3 L 0.5 L 1.8 3.5 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.8 L na 5.3 80.0 2.4 0.8 1.0
Goldman Sachs & Co. 0.2 3.3 0.4 na 0.2 L na na 1.1 L 2.2 3.0 L 3.7 L 4.5 L na na 5.0 na 1.5 0.4 L 0.1 L
BMO Capital Markets 0.1 L 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 L 0.3 L 1.1 2.1 3.2 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.6 4.3 5.4 72.0 2.7 1.6 2.4
Banc of America-Merrill Lynch 0.1 L na 0.4 na 0.2 L na na 1.7 2.9 4.3 4.9 na na na na na 3.3 1.8 2.6
Standard & Poor's Corp. 0.1 L 3.2 L 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.3 2.8 4.0 na 5.5 6.9 5.0 5.4 81.5 2.0 1.2 2.0
Top 10 Avg. 1.2 4.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.6 4.5 5.2 6.1 7.5 5.2 6.1 80.6 4.0 2.7 2.8
Bottom 10 Avg. 0.2 3.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.1 6.3 4.4 5.1 69.6 1.6 0.7 0.9
Down 15 15 32 21 24 23 28 27 27 30 24 28 30 20 24 27 14 15 18
Same 26 26 8 12 17 11 10 12 11 13 15 11 5 7 11 5 14 18 21
Up 6 4 3 6 6 7 4 7 8 4 7 4 5 6 10 3 19 13 8
Diffusion Index 40 % 38 % 16 % 31 % 31 % 30 % 21 % 28 % 29 % 22 % 32 % 22 % 19 % 29 % 34 % 16 % 55 % 48 % 39 %
Fourth Quarter 2010

Naroff Economic Advisors 2.5 H 5.5 H 3.1 2.8 H 2.8 H 3.0 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.7 6.8 H 8.5 H 5.8 H 6.5 71.0 2.3 2.2 2.7
RBS Securities 2.4 5.4 3.5 H 2.8 H 2.8 H 3.4 H 3.7 H 3.8 H 4.5 H 5.0 H 5.8 6.1 7.5 5.3 6.8 H 85.0 4.5 H 2.4 3.0
Scotiabank 1.8 4.8 na na 2.5 na na 3.2 3.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 6.5 4.6 5.7 na 2.0 1.8 2.0
Argus Research 1.7 4.7 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.8 4.3 5.2 5.5 6.3 4.8 5.5 81.3 1.1 L 3.6 4.7 H
Cycledata Corp. 1.5 4.5 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 3.8 4.9 5.6 6.6 7.5 5.4 6.5 74.0 1.3 2.0 2.5
Woodworth Holdings 1.5 4.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.3 6.5 4.5 5.2 80.0 4.3 1.5 1.9
Comerica Bank 1.1 4.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 3.6 4.5 5.0 5.8 7.0 4.8 6.2 85.0 H 4.0 1.2 1.4
DePrince & Assoc. 1.1 4.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.8 6.7 4.7 5.8 79.5 1.9 2.2 2.4
Wells Fargo 1.0 4.5 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 3.0 4.0 4.8 5.7 6.9 4.9 5.6 81.2 2.2 1.6 1.8
GLC Financial Economics 1.0 4.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.7 6.3 7.9 5.0 6.2 74.5 2.2 1.4 2.8
Chmura Economics & Analytics 0.9 3.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.7 3.6 4.4 5.4 na na 5.3 68.3 3.6 1.8 1.9
UBS 0.9 na 1.4 na 1.1 na na 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.6 na na na na na 3.3 1.6 0.5
PNC Financial Services Corp. 0.8 3.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 2.8 3.9 4.7 5.6 6.7 5.1 5.7 73.0 3.2 1.8 2.2
Moody's Economy.com 0.8 3.8 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.6 3.1 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.9 na 6.7 na 3.0 0.7 1.8
Economist Intelligence Unit 0.8 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.8 4.0 4.8 na na na 5.7 na 1.6 na 0.8
Swiss Re 0.8 3.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.8 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.6 na 6.0 na 3.1 4.3 H 1.3
Barclays Capital 0.8 3.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 L 2.0 2.7 3.9 4.6 5.1 6.2 7.3 5.6 6.4 na 3.5 0.9 2.3
BMO Capital Markets 0.5 3.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.7 4.4 5.5 71.5 2.9 1.8 1.5
SunTrust Banks 0.5 3.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 L 1.4 2.7 3.8 4.4 5.4 6.5 5.8 H 4.2 L 69.8 4.2 2.3 2.7
Standard & Poor's Corp. 0.5 3.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.8 3.0 4.2 na 5.7 7.0 5.2 5.6 79.3 3.0 1.2 2.0
Societe Generale 0.4 3.7 0.4 L na 0.4 0.7 na 1.8 2.0 L 4.5 4.6 5.8 6.8 na 5.8 85.0 H 2.7 1.0 1.5
Nomura Securities, Inc. 0.3 3.3 0.4 L 0.3 L 0.3 0.4 0.6 L 2.0 3.7 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.9 L na 5.4 82.0 2.6 0.7 1.0
Fannie Mae 0.2 3.3 na na 0.3 na 2.1 na na 3.9 4.5 5.3 na na 6.0 na 3.4 0.3 0.5
RDQ Economics 0.2 3.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 3.2 5.0 H 6.0 H 6.5 7.5 5.2 6.5 70.0 2.4 2.8 3.0
Mesirow Financial 0.2 3.2 L 0.7 0.3 L 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.7 4.1 4.7 5.6 7.0 5.0 5.7 75.5 3.4 0.2 L 0.4
Goldman Sachs & Co. 0.2 3.3 0.4 L na 0.2 L na na 1.2 L 2.3 3.0 L 3.7 L 4.5 L na na 5.0 na 1.5 0.5 -0.3 L
Top 10 Avg. 1.9 4.9 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.5 6.4 7.7 5.4 6.5 81.8 3.8 2.8 3.1
Bottom 10 Avg. 0.3 3.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.6 3.8 4.4 5.2 6.3 4.4 5.2 69.1 1.6 0.7 0.8

Down 14 16 26 17 23 25 23 24 26 24 20 26 22 16 24 25 18 16 16
Same 25 22 10 14 13 7 13 15 13 18 18 12 8 8 10 5 11 16 21
Up 8 7 7 8 11 9 6 7 7 5 8 5 6 5 11 5 18 14 10
Diffusion Index 44 % 40 % 28 % 38 % 37 % 30 % 30 % 32 % 29 % 30 % 37 % 26 % 28 % 31 % 36 % 21 % 50 % 48 % 44 %
First Quarter 2011

Naroff Economic Advisors 3.8 H 6.8 H 4.2 4.5 H 4.0 H 4.1 H 4.3 H 4.6 H 5.1 H 5.5 H 6.2 H 7.3 H 8.9 H 6.3 H 7.0 72.0 2.0 2.4 3.0
RBS Securities 3.4 6.4 4.4 H 3.7 3.6 4.1 H 4.3 H 4.3 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.3 7.6 5.4 7.1 H 88.0 4.6 H 2.9 3.2
Argus Research 2.0 5.0 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.9 4.6 5.3 5.5 6.3 4.8 5.5 82.0 1.8 3.2 4.3 H
Comerica Bank 2.0 5.0 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.3 6.0 7.2 5.0 6.6 86.0 4.0 1.3 1.4
DePrince & Associates 1.6 4.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.6 6.0 6.9 4.8 6.0 80.4 2.3 2.2 2.4
Cycledata Corp. 1.5 4.5 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 3.8 4.9 5.6 6.6 7.5 5.4 6.5 73.0 1.3 2.0 2.5
Woodworth Holdings 1.5 4.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.3 6.5 4.5 5.2 80.0 4.3 1.5 1.9
PNC Financial Services Corp. 1.4 4.4 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.8 6.8 5.3 5.9 74.0 na na na
Chmura Economics & Analytics 1.3 4.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.9 3.7 L 4.6 5.4 na na 5.5 67.3 3.0 2.0 2.3
Wells Fargo 1.3 5.3 2.1 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.9 7.1 5.0 5.7 82.4 2.7 1.8 2.2
Swiss Re 1.3 4.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 2.3 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.8 6.8 na 6.3 na 3.4 4.7 H 1.3
SunTrust Banks 1.3 4.3 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 3.1 4.2 4.5 L 5.6 6.7 5.9 4.8 L 68.4 3.8 3.4 3.6
Moody's Economy.com 1.2 4.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.9 3.0 3.3 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.9 na 6.8 na 3.8 1.6 1.9
Societe Generale 1.0 4.3 0.5 L na 0.9 1.1 na 2.3 2.4 L 4.7 4.8 5.0 L 6.8 na 5.8 88.0 H 2.7 1.2 1.4
Economist Intelligence Unit 1.0 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.9 4.0 4.8 na na na 5.7 na 0.6 L na 1.6
GLC Financial Economics 1.0 4.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 L 2.8 3.9 4.7 6.3 7.9 5.0 6.1 75.6 2.7 2.0 3.0
BMO Capital Markets 1.0 4.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.7 6.8 4.5 5.6 71.0 3.0 1.9 1.8
Standard & Poor's Corp. 0.9 3.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.3 4.4 na 5.8 7.1 5.4 5.8 77.3 3.3 1.3 1.9
Fannie Mae 0.7 3.6 na na 0.7 na 2.4 na na 4.0 4.6 5.3 na na 6.1 na 4.0 0.5 0.1 L
Nomura Securities, Inc. 0.5 3.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 L 0.6 L 0.9 L 2.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.6 L na 5.5 82.0 3.2 1.0 0.9
Mesirow Financial 0.2 L 3.2 L 0.8 0.3 L 0.5 L 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.8 4.2 4.8 5.7 7.1 5.1 5.8 75.0 4.0 0.4 L 0.1 L
Top 10 Avg. 2.4 5.4 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.3 4.1 5.0 5.6 6.4 7.7 5.5 6.7 82.7 4.0 3.1 3.1
Bottom 10 Avg. 0.7 3.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.9 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.3 4.5 5.3 69.1 1.8 1.1 1.1
September Consensus na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Down na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Same na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Up na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Diffusion Index na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na % na %
International Interest Rate And Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts

United States
3 Mo. Dollar Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield % Fed's Major Currency $ Index
Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo. In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo. In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo.
Scotiabank 0.40 0.65 1.60 3.75 4.25 4.70 na na na
Deutsche Bank AG na na na na na na na na na
WestLB 0.50 0.50 0.75 3.60 4.00 4.50 78.0 78.0 80.0
ING Financial Markets 0.40 0.60 1.40 3.80 4.00 4.40 83.8 86.7 88.9
Mizuho Research Institute 0.30 0.30 0.30 3.50 3.60 3.70 75.5 76.1 77.5
October Consensus 0.40 0.51 1.01 3.66 3.96 4.33 79.1 80.3 82.1
High 0.50 0.65 1.60 3.80 4.25 4.70 83.8 86.7 88.9
Low 0.30 0.30 0.30 3.50 3.60 3.70 75.5 76.1 77.5
Last Months Avg. 0.48 0.55 0.81 3.73 4.03 4.39 78.4 79.7 82.7
Japan
3 Mo. Yen Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield % Yen/USD
Scotiabank 0.30 0.40 0.60 1.40 1.40 1.60 95.0 92.0 88.0
WestLB 0.50 0.50 0.60 1.40 1.50 1.60 95.0 95.0 100.0
Mizuho Research Institute 0.47 0.43 0.38 1.35 1.35 1.40 90.0 92.0 94.0
High 0.50 0.50 0.60 1.60 1.70 1.90 95.0 95.0 105.0
Low 0.30 0.40 0.38 1.35 1.35 1.40 90.0 92.0 88.0
Last Months Avg. 0.48 0.46 0.56 1.43 1.49 1.63 96.5 97.5 100.0
United Kingdom
3 Mo. Sterling Rate 10 Yr. Gilt Yields % USD/Pound Sterling
Scotiabank 0.50 0.80 1.20 3.80 4.10 4.50 1.72 1.74 1.76
WestLB 0.80 0.90 1.25 3.80 4.00 4.25 1.73 1.73 1.75
Mizuho Research Institute 0.85 0.85 0.80 3.80 3.85 3.90 na na na
High 0.85 0.90 2.15 3.80 4.10 4.50 1.73 1.74 1.76
Low 0.50 0.80 0.80 3.80 3.85 3.90 1.68 1.69 1.65
Last Months Avg. 0.84 0.93 1.48 3.80 3.96 4.30 1.72 1.73 1.75
Switzerland
3 Mo. Franc Rate % 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield % CHF/USD
Scotiabank 0.30 0.40 0.70 2.00 2.30 2.50 1.03 1.02 1.01
WestLB 0.30 0.40 0.65 2.00 2.25 2.50 1.05 1.05 1.03
Mizuho Research Institute na na na na na na na na na
High 0.30 0.40 0.70 2.20 2.40 2.55 1.12 1.16 1.24
Low 0.30 0.30 0.45 2.00 2.25 2.50 1.03 1.02 1.01
Last Months Avg. 0.32 0.37 0.60 2.03 2.25 2.52 1.07 1.08 1.09
Canada
3 Mo. Dollar Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield % CAD/USD
Scotiabank 0.55 0.90 1.60 3.50 4.00 4.40 0.96 0.97 1.00
WestLB 0.70 0.80 0.90 3.70 3.90 4.50 1.07 1.07 1.10
High 0.70 0.90 1.60 3.80 4.00 4.50 1.08 1.14 1.24
Low 0.45 0.45 0.90 3.50 3.90 4.35 0.96 0.97 1.00
Last Months Avg. 0.70 0.78 0.92 3.72 4.03 4.52 1.09 1.11 1.15
International Interest Rate And Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts

Australia
3 Mo. Dollar Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield % USD/AUD
Scotiabank 3.40 3.60 3.90 5.50 5.60 5.80 0.88 0.90 0.94
WestLB 3.40 3.50 3.75 5.50 5.60 5.90 0.86 0.88 0.90
ING Financial Markets na na na na na na 0.89 0.85 0.82
High 3.40 3.60 3.90 5.50 5.60 5.90 0.89 0.90 0.94
Low 3.40 3.50 3.75 5.50 5.60 5.80 0.86 0.85 0.82
Last Months Avg. 3.40 3.50 3.78 5.50 5.60 5.85 0.86 0.86 0.87
Eurozone
3 Mo. Euro Rate 10 Yr. Euro Bond Yield % USD/EUR
Scotiabank 0.80 1.00 1.60 3.40 3.50 3.80 1.50 1.53 1.58
WestLB 1.00 1.00 1.35 3.60 3.65 3.95 1.45 1.50 1.55
Mizuho Research Institute 0.70 0.60 0.60 na na na 1.44 1.43 1.40
High 1.00 1.10 1.60 3.60 3.65 3.95 1.55 1.53 1.58
Low 0.70 0.60 0.60 3.40 3.50 3.80 1.44 1.43 1.40
Last Months Avg. 0.93 0.96 1.23 3.50 3.58 3.85 1.43 1.43 1.44
10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yields %

Germany France Italy Spain
Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo. In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo. In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo. In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo.
Scotiabank 3.40 3.50 3.80 3.70 3.80 4.00 4.10 4.30 4.50 4.00 4.10 4.20
West LB 3.30 3.35 3.65 3.50 3.55 3.85 4.10 4.15 4.45 3.80 3.85 4.15
ING Financial Markets 3.50 3.60 3.80 3.75 3.85 4.05 4.20 4.30 4.50 4.00 4.10 4.30
Mizuho Research Institute 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.75 3.80 3.85 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.10 4.10 4.15
October Consensus 3.41 3.49 3.70 3.68 3.75 3.94 4.19 4.28 4.45 3.98 4.04 4.20
High 3.50 3.60 3.80 3.75 3.85 4.05 4.35 4.35 4.50 4.10 4.10 4.30
Low 3.30 3.35 3.55 3.50 3.55 3.85 4.10 4.15 4.35 3.80 3.85 4.15
Last Months Avg. 3.41 3.49 3.70 3.69 3.74 3.91 4.19 4.26 4.40 3.98 4.04 4.18
Consensus Forecasts Consensus Forecasts

10-year Bond Yields vs U.S. Yield 3 Mo. Interest Rates vs U.S. Rate
Current In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo. Current In 3 Mo. In 6 Mo. In 12 Mo.
Japan -2.07 -2.23 -2.48 -2.70 Japan -0.27 0.04 -0.97 -0.48
United Kingdom 0.31 0.14 0.00 -0.04 United Kingdom 0.05 0.31 0.35 0.34
Switzerland -1.30 -1.60 -1.65 -1.81 Switzerland -0.33 -0.10 -0.15 -0.41
Canada 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.09 Canada -0.12 0.17 0.20 0.29
Australia 2.03 1.84 1.64 1.53 Australia 3.02 3.00 3.04 2.81
Germany -0.07 -0.25 -0.48 -0.63 Eurozone 0.00 0.43 0.41 0.21
France 0.18 0.01 -0.21 -0.39
Italy 0.65 0.53 0.31 0.12
Spain 0.44 0.31 0.07 -0.12
Eurozone 0.48 -0.16 -0.38 -0.48
A Sampling of Views on the Economy, Financial Markets and Government Policy

Viewpoints: Excerpted from Recent Reports Issued by our Blue Chip Panel Members and Others
Tracking The Bounce future. While a standard “Taylor rule” might say that the funds rate
Following the weaker-than-expected numbers on home sales and dura- “should” be deeply negative, the argument goes, it’s time to move away
ble goods, the risks to our 3% GDP forecast for 2009Q3 again look from monetary policy rules that don’t take into account potential asset
roughly balanced. While none of the downside surprises were large by price misalignments. What should we make of this? I agree that Fed
themselves, what caught my eye is the fact that all measures of big- officials should (and probably will) pay more attention to asset price
ticket demand except auto sales (which benefited from cash-for- misalignments in the future than they have in the past, i.e. the Fed’s
clunkers) have flattened or declined in the past 1-2 months after signifi- reaction function might well change. But I don’t think this argument is
cant gains in Q2. This could well mean that the earlier gains were very relevant at the moment, for two reasons:
overstated by a bounce from the financial disruptions before April. For policymakers to worry about a “bubble,” a big asset price gain isn’t
Suppose that “planned” big-ticket demand was $100 in Q4, $90 in Q1, enough. You also need some evidence that valuation levels are suffi-
$90 in Q2, and $90 in Q3. But also suppose that $10 of planned de- ciently out of line with standard “fair value” metrics to send a reliable
mand wasn’t financeable in Q1 because of credit market disruptions signal to policymakers. I am not aware of any market where this is
and had to be delayed until Q2. In that case, observed sales would be close to being the case.
been $100 in Q4, $80 in Q1, $100 in Q2, and $90 in Q3. This would As research at the Bank for International Settlements showed in the
create the erroneous impression of a sharp rebound in big-ticket de- years leading up to the crisis, overvalued asset prices are most danger-
mand in Q2, followed by a renewed drop in Q3, when in fact demand ous when they are accompanied by a credit boom. The experience of
was flat all along. While this example is clearly a caricature, it will be the past decade is a great example of this—while the bursting of the
important to track the big-ticket demand data in coming months to see unleveraged stock market bubble of the 1990s had few effects on the
how important a factor the underlying mechanism might have been. financial system, the bursting of the leveraged housing bubble of the
Growth is likely to stay around 3% in Q4, but we still expect a renewed 2000s caused the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s. This is impor-
slowdown in 2010 as the economy loses the temporary boost from fis- tant to the re-emerging “bubble” debate because right now, credit is still
cal stimulus and the inventory cycle. By our estimates, the impact of contracting across the board. That’s another reason why it is very pre-
these factors will go from 4 percentage points in 2009H2 to around 0 in mature to expect Fed officials to deviate from a focus on the real econ-
2010H2. This means that underlying final demand needs to accelerate omy in favor of “bubble busting” in my view, even if their reaction
by 4 percentage points over the next year to keep the economy growing function ultimately moves in that direction.
at the same pace. Some acceleration is likely, but I don’t expect any- Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, New York, NY
thing close to 4 percentage points given the continued weakness in
household income, the upward pressure on the saving rate, and all the Can Pickup Persist?
other headwinds on final demand in a post-bubble economy. Hardly a day goes by without another sign that an economic recovery is
Our most out-of-consensus view remains the call for a further sharp underway. Looking at a basket of individual indicators, in July and
slowdown in core CPI inflation to around 0% by late 2010. The rent again in August, there appeared to be a bottoming in the composite
and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) indexes, which together account for coincident indicators index, which includes some key components used
nearly 40% of the total core, are important to this view. Rent and OER by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle
inflation is highly sensitive to the rental vacancy rate, which currently Dating Committee to help identify business cycle peaks and troughs.
stands at a historical record of 10.6% and still seems to be rising as Moreover, with the leading economic indicators (LEI) index up for the
more foreclosed homes end up on the rental market. As a result, rent fifth straight month in August, more good news on coincident indicators
and OER look set for outright declines in 2010 (the 3-month annualized likely lies ahead. In this setting, we remain comfortable with our fore-
rate is already below 0.5%). That would go a long way to push core casts of quarterly annualized real GDP growth of 2.5% in Q309, 3.0%
CPI inflation toward zero, supporting our call for no Fed rate hikes in Q409, and 2.6% in calendar 2010.
through the end of 2010. Recessions are started for a variety of reasons in different business cy-
th
So how should we interpret the September 25 Wall Street Journal cles; however, exits from cyclical downturns have much more in com-
article and Chicago speech by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and his mon. In the public sector, there are countercyclical monetary and fiscal
statement that he “…would hazard the view that prudent risk manage- policy responses once the downturn becomes reasonably obvious. In the
ment indicates that policy likely will need to begin normalization be- private sector, firms slashing labor, inventories, and capex eventually
fore it is obvious that it is necessary, possibly with greater force than is stop doing so once they have reduced those inputs into better alignment
customary”? Although this clearly sounds hawkish, I don’t think it is with below-normal output and sales levels. Households naturally be-
such a strong signal. In the speech (though not the WSJ article), Warsh come more cautious during a recession, as they postpone some expendi-
further elaborates with the following sentence: “In my view, if policy- tures and typically raise their savings rate. However, legislated tax cuts
makers insist on waiting until the level of real activity has plainly and and Fed-induced interest rate reductions stimulate consumer spending,
substantially returned to normal--and the economy has returned to self- and at some point, households become more satisfied with a higher
sustaining trend growth--they will almost certainly have waited too savings level commensurate with their changed economic and financial
long.” Warsh simply seems to be saying that a) the tightening process circumstances. In the second half of 2009, this history is starting to
needs to have started by the time the unemployment gets back to the repeat itself.
Fed’s estimate of the sustainable rate and b) when the hikes come, they Countercyclical monetary policy has played a pivotal role in the recent
are likely to be faster than the 25bp every 6 weeks seen in 2004-2006. recession as the Fed addressed an unprecedented financial system crisis
Most people would agree with this, and given how far the unemploy- and credit crunch with an also unprecedented surge in its balance sheet.
ment rate is from a normal level, it doesn't mean that rate hikes are The accompanying succor for the global financial markets has been
likely anytime soon. evidenced in the sharp compression of yields versus Treasury rates in
One increasingly popular counterargument against our Fed view is that the US mortgage-linked and corporate bond markets. Note: From a
monetary policy might become more reactive to asset bubbles in the funds flow perspective, the Fed has been (continued on next page)
A Sampling of Views on the Economy, Financial Markets and Government Policy

Viewpoints Excerpted from Recent Reports Issued by our Blue Chip Panel Members and Others
buying mortgage-linked, agency, and Treasury securities from sellers in Q209, when real final sales edged up at a 0.4% annual rate after fal-
who have directed part of those proceeds to the corporate bond market.) ling at a 3.9% annual rate over the three previous quarters.
Fiscal policy stimulus has also been unprecedented. Federal income tax While cutting jobs, capex, and inventories made sense in response to
cuts and higher transfer payments started to boost after-tax, disposable slumping product demand, continuing to do so once demand stabilizes
personal incomes in H109, and more of the planned stimulus on the starts to raise market share and competition-related risks. Firms appar-
spending side of the ledger has started to come through in Q309. ently already are starting to appreciate that the rapid pace of inventory
While countercyclical public policies have been playing a powerful liquidation earlier this year now entails growing risks of losing sales
stabilizing role so far this year, there are limits to how far policymakers due to inadequate inventories of goods for sale. And continuing to delay
can proactively raise the Federal deficit and the Fed’s balance sheet. addressing critical capital replacement needs entails growing competi-
Such actions are necessary to initiate a recovery. However, there must tive cost disadvantages versus those domestic and foreign competitors
be follow-through from households— by far the largest element of that have forged ahead with the adoption of the latest cost-saving tech-
aggregate demand. And that follow-through reflects two critical consid- nologies. Thus, capex orders have been just about stabilizing even at
erations—incomes and the personal saving rate. very low industrial capacity utilization rates. In addition, headcounts
can be cut too much, with negative consequences for retaining talent
Although the personal saving rate has risen, as it usually does during and maintaining quality of services for customers.
recessions, it remains comparatively low versus its longer-term history.
Thus, an ongoing debate is whether American consumers must save still Firms also are influenced by pricing power, which will remain limited
more to reduce debt and build financial assets in the wake of the sizable with still abundant spare productive capacity in the global economy.
declines, on balance, in the prices of stocks and residential real estate in However, the related weakness in consumer prices over the past year
recent years. has represented a redistribution of overall current dollar national in-
come to the household sector. And American consumers will play a
Our view has been that the approximate 3.0 percentage point upward critical role in heading off a relapse into another recession in 2010.
personal saving rate adjustment from its 2005 level of just 1.4%—the
lowest calendar average level in the past half century—to around 4.4% Maury Harris, UBS, New York, NY
in H109 represents about as much adjustment as should occur, at least Reverse Repos -- A Form of Tightening?
on a multi-quarter measurement basis. That is because our research The Fed has started to make plans for arranging reverse repurchase
indicates that the net worth (NW)/disposable personal income (DPI) agreements with primary dealers (and possibly other counterparties) in
ratio and interest rates are much more tightly correlated with savings order to drain the abundant volume of reserves from the banking sys-
behavior than is the unemployment rate, which has increased to almost tem. Some observers have suggested that the Fed could begin this effort
10%. Recently, our estimated personal saving rate model with both well before it decides to raise interest rates, and these transactions, by
NW/DPI and the three-month Treasury bill rate as explanatory vari- this view, would represent a tightening in monetary policy. The thought
ables was consistent with a Q209 personal saving rate of 4.8% versus has intuitive appeal, and the beginning of such transactions will repre-
the actual reported 5.0%. sent a notable development, but we do not see reverse repos by them-
Our saving rate model suggests that the personal saving rate has re- selves as representing tighter policy. When the Fed tightens, the shift
mained much less than in past similarly serious recessions for two main will take the form of higher interest rates.
reasons. First, relatively low interest rates have been limiting interest As conditions in financial markets improve, depository institutions will
income—a comparatively highly-saved form of personal income. Also, naturally feel less need to hold extreme liquidity positions. They will
the NW/DPI ratio, despite being at around its lowest level of the current most likely seek to lighten their holdings of excess reserves, and these
decade, still has been higher than in past serious recessions. efforts, all else equal, would put downward pressure on short-term in-
The other critical consideration for consumer spending is income for- terest rates -- pressure that would leave the federal funds rate close to
mation. In H109, household purchasing power was boosted by Federal zero. Arranging reverse repos in this environment would merely help
income tax cuts and higher transfer payments (eg, a 5.8% Social Secu- depository institutions pare their excess reserves, thereby keeping the
rity cost-of-living adjustment). These constituted a one-time permanent federal funds rate in the middle of its target range. The reverse repos in
boost to the DPI level but just a temporary booster of DPI growth, this case represent a defensive transaction, one designed to stabilize the
unless there are further tax cuts, for example. In H209 and 2010, the funds rate and prevent an inadvertent easing. A reverse repo in this
key to income formation will be aggregate wages and salaries—53.5% setting would represent an important transaction because it would signal
of overall pretax personal income last year. After falling sharply during a return to normal conditions in the money market. However, the trans-
most of H109, wage and salary disbursements edged up in July as job action would not represent a tightening in policy.
losses slowed and average hourly earnings continued to grow, albeit at If the Fed began to arrange reverse repos while depository institutions
a slower rate than before the recession. still wished to maintain large liquidity positions, the Fed's transaction
Labor market weakness should continue to fade. Gross job losses still would put upward pressure on the federal funds rate and other short-
exceed gross hiring. However, hiring levels rose somewhat in July. term interest rates. Such action would represent tighter policy, but it is
Moreover, layoffs have been declining, with the latest four-week mov- the change in rates, not the reverse repo, that constitutes the change in
ing average of 554,000 weekly initial claims for state unemployment policy. The Fed would probably transmit such a change by announcing
insurance in the week ended September 19 being the lowest since Janu- an increase in the target federal funds rate or by lifting the rate paid on
ary. As signs of more stable product demand persist, there should be bank reserves. After the announcement, reverse repos would be used to
fewer firms incrementally reducing their headcounts, and layoffs should carry out the change in policy. The reverse repo would be the means to
fall further and closer to already stabilizing gross hiring levels. Note: the end, not the end itself.
One major sign of stabilizing product demand already has been reported Michael Moran, Daiwa Securities America, New York, NY
Special Questions:
1. Please provide your forecasts of the quarter-to-quarter annualized percent change in Real GDP, the GDP Price Index and the Consumer Price In-
dex during Q3 2009
Q/Q Annualized Percent change in Q3 2009
Real GDP GDP Price Index Consumer Price Index
Consensus 3.2% 1.4% 2.7%
Top 10 Average 4.2% 2.3% 3.7%
Bottom 10 Average 2.1 0.7% 1.1%
2. Has the U.S. recession ended?
(Percentage of those responding)
Yes No
90.9% 9.1%
3. Will the FOMC raise its target federal funds rate before the end of Q2 2010?
Yes No
38.6% 61.4%
4. Consumer credit soared over the past couple of decades as households took on more and more debt to support standards of living that could not be
financed out of incomes alone. However, year-over-year growth in outstanding credit peaked in July 2008 and by July of this year was down 4.2%
on a y/y basis, the sharpest rate of contraction since the mid-1940s. The decline results from decreased demand for consumer debt as households
attempt to repair tattered balance sheets coupled with a reduction in the availability of consumer debt as lenders grapple with rising default rates.
When will the y/y change in outstanding consumer credit once again turn positive?
Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Later
0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 37.8% 24.4% 20.0%
5. A. Sales of new and existing home have generally increased over the past several months, no doubt helped by the $8,000 federal tax credit for
first-time home buyers. However, the tax credit expires at the end of November. WILL the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers be
extended, expanded, or both by Congress prior to the end of THIS YEAR?
Yes No
71.1% 28.9%
B. SHOULD the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers be extended, expanded, or both?
Yes No
42.2% 57.8%
6. Do you worry that federal stimulus programs like “cash for clunkers” and the $8,000 first-time home buyers’ tax credit have merely brought de-
mand forward, setting the stage for renewed weakness thereafter?
Yes No
68.9% 31.1%
7. A shrinking trade deficit contributed significantly to GDP during the first half of 2009. However, the trade deficit widened sharply in July. Will
the trade sector contribute to GDP growth in the second half of 2009? Will the trade deficit shrink in 2010?
Will trade deficit shrink Will trade deficit shrink
in the second half of 2009 in 2010
Yes No Yes No
38.6% 61.4% 26.7% 73.3%
8. What is the biggest risk faced by the U.S. economy over the next year?
(Ranked according to frequency of mention)
A. Persistence of weak labor markets dampens growth in personal income and consumption
B. Credit remains exceedingly tight, dampening consumption and business investment
C. Recovery in housing sector stalls as foreclosures rise and home prices continue to fall
D. Dollar plunges to fresh lows, inflation and long-term interest rates soar, economic growth weakens anew
E. Recovery peters out next year as effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus fade
F. Energy prices spike higher
G. Renewed financial market turmoil saps consumer and business confidence
H. Influenza pandemic has profound effect on economic activity
Databank:
2009
Monthly Indicator Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Retail and Food Service Sales (a) 1.7 0.4 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 0.9 -0.2 2.7
Auto & Light Truck Sales (b) 9.5 9.1 9.8 9.3 9.9 9.7 11.2 14.1
Personal Income (a, current $) -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 0.2 1.4 -1.1 0.0
Personal Consumption (a, current $) 0.8 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.2
Consumer Credit (e) 3.3 -5.1 -7.3 -8.2 -4.2 -7.4 -10.4
Consumer Sentiment (U. of Mich.) 61.2 56.3 57.3 65.1 68.7 70.8 66.0 65.7 73.5
Household Employment (c) -1239 -351 -861 120 -437 -374 -155 -392
Non-farm Payroll Employment (c) -741 -681 -652 -519 -303 -463 -276 -216
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7
Average Hourly Earnings ('82$) 8.64 8.61 8.64 8.65 8.65 8.57 8.59
Average Hourly Earnings (current $) 18.43 18.46 18.50 18.50 18.53 18.54 18.59 18.65
Non-Farm Workweek (hrs.) 33.3 33.3 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.0 33.1 33.1
Industrial Production (d) -10.9 -11.3 -12.5 -12.4 -13.2 -13.2 -12.6 -11.8
Capacity Utilization (%) 71.1 70.6 69.5 69.2 68.5 68.3 69.0 69.6
ISM Manufacturing Index (g) 35.6 35.8 36.3 40.1 42.8 44.8 48.9 52.9
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (g) 42.9 41.6 40.8 43.7 44.0 47.0 46.4 48.4
Housing Starts (b) .488 .574 .521 .479 .551 .590 .589 .598
Housing Permits (b) .531 .550 .511 .498 .518 .570 .564 .579
New Home Sales (1-family, c) 329 354 332 345 371 400 426 429
Construction Expenditures (a) -2.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 -1.3 0.1 -0.2
Consumer Price Index (nsa., d) 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -2.1 -1.5
CPI ex. Food and Energy (nsa., d) 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4
Producer Price Index (n.s.a., d) -0.9 -1.4 -3.4 -3.5 -5.0 -4.6 -6.8 -4.3
Durable Goods Orders (a) -7.8 1.7 -2.2 1.4 1.4 -1.1 4.8 -2.4
Leading Economic Indicators (g) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.6
Balance of Trade & Services (f) -37.0 -26.6 -28.9 -29.1 -26.4 -27.5 -32.0
Federal Funds Rate (%) 0.15 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.16 0.16
3-Mo. Treasury Bill Rate (%) 0.13 0.30 0.21 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17
10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 2.52 2.87 2.82 2.93 3.29 3.72 3.56 3.59
2008
Monthly Indicator Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Retail and Food Service Sales (a) 0.0 -0.8 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -3.1 -2.1 -3.2
Auto & Light Truck Sales (b) 15.3 15.3 15.0 14.4 14.3 13.6 12.5 13.7 12.5 10.5 10.1 10.3
Personal Income (a, current $) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 -0.1 -0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
Personal Consumption (a, current $) 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2
Consumer Credit (e) 5.8 3.4 5.9 4.2 3.3 4.1 3.5 -3.0 3.1 -1.0 -4.2 -3.5
Consumer Sentiment (U. of Mich.) 78.4 70.8 69.0 62.6 59.8 56.4 61.2 63.0 70.3 57.6 55.3 60.1
Household Employment (c) 23 -242 -52 234 -283 -236 -142 -323 -244 -372 -513 -806
Non-Farm Payroll Employment (c) -72 -144 -122 -160 -137 -161 -128 -175 -321 -380 -597 -681
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2
Average Hourly Earnings ('82$) 8.27 8.29 8.30 8.30 8.26 8.18 8.14 8.19 8.21 8.34 8.54 8.65
Average Hourly Earnings (current $) 17.77 17.83 17.90 17.94 17.99 18.04 18.10 18.18 18.21 18.28 18.34 18.40
Non-farm Workweek (hrs.) 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.4 33.3
Industrial Production (d) 2.2 1.1 0.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -2.0 -6.4 -4.7 -6.5 -8.9
Capacity Utilization (%) 80.5 80.2 79.8 79.2 78.9 78.7 78.6 77.6 74.5 75.4 74.4 72.7
ISM Manufacturing Index (g) 50.7 48.3 49.0 48.6 49.3 49.5 49.5 49.3 43.4 38.7 36.6 32.9
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (g) 44.6 49.3 49.6 52.0 51.7 48.2 49.5 50.6 50.2 44.2 37.3 40.6
Housing Starts (b) 1.083 1.100 .993 1.001 .971 1.078 .933 .849 .822 .763 .655 .556
Housing Permits (b) 1.102 1.015 .968 .991 .978 1.174 .924 .857 .806 .729 .630 .564
New Home Sales (1-family, c) 608 576 509 533 509 488 500 444 436 409 390 374
Construction Expenditures (a) -0.4 -0.9 1.4 -0.5 0.3 -0.2 -2.4 2.4 0.3 -0.7 -3.5 -3.4
Consumer Price Index (nsa., d) 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.9 3.7 1.1 0.1
CPI ex. Food and Energy (nsa, d) 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8
Producer Price Index (nsa., d) 7.4 6.5 6.7 6.4 7.3 9.1 9.9 9.7 8.8 5.2 0.4 -0.9
Durable Goods Orders (a) -4.4 1.1 -0.2 -1.0 0.1 1.4 0.7 -5.5 0.0 -8.5 -3.9 -4.6
Leading Economic Indicators (g) -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.8 0.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.1
Balance of Trade & Services (f) -61.5 -61.8 -59.4 -62.1 -60.5 -60.2 -64.9 -60.9 -60.1 -59.4 -43.2 -41.9
Federal Funds Rate (%) 3.94 2.98 2.60 2.28 1.98 2.00 2.01 2.00 1.81 0.97 0.99 0.16
3-Mo. Treasury Bill Rate (%) 2.75 2.12 1.34 1.29 1.73 1.86 1.63 1.72 1.13 0.67 0.19 0.03
10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 3.74 3.74 3.51 3.68 3.88 4.10 4.01 3.89 3.69 3.81 3.53 2.42
(a) month-over-month % change; (b) millions, saar; (c) thousands, saar; (d) year-over-year % change; (e) annualized % change; (f) $ billions; (g) level. Most
series are subject to frequent government revisions. Use with care.
Calendar Of Upcoming Economic Data Releases
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

September 28 29 30 October 1 2
Case-Shiller Home Price Index GDP (Q2, Final) ISM Manufacturing (Sep) Employment Report (Sep)
(Jul) ADP Employment Survey (Sep) Unit Vehicle Sales (Sep) Factory Orders (Aug)
Consumer Confidence (Sep, Corporate Profits (Q2, Final) Construction Spending (Aug)
Conference Board) Chicago PMI (Sep) Monster Employ. Index (Sep)
Agricultural Prices (Sep) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Challenger Survey (Sep)
ABC Consumer Comfort Index Mortgage Applications Personal Income & Consump-
Weekly Store Sales tion (Aug)
Pending Home Sales (Aug)
Weekly Jobless Claims
Weekly Money Supply
5 6 7 8 9
ISM Non-Manufacturing (Sep) ABC Consumer Comfort Index Consumer Credit (Aug) Wholesale Trade (Aug) U.S. Trade (Aug)
Weekly Store Sales EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Jobless Claims
Mortgage Applications Weekly Money Supply
12 13 14 15 16
Columbus Day Treasury Budget (Sep) Retail Sales (Sep) Consumer Price Index (Sep) Industrial Production (Sep)
U.S. Bond Market FOMC Minutes (Sep 22 meet- Trade Price Indexes (Sep) Empire State Index (Oct) Consumer Sentiment (Oct, Pre-
ing) Business Inventories (Aug) Philadelphia Fed Index (Oct) liminary, University of Michi-
Closed but U.S. Equity Weekly Store Sales EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Jobless Claims gan)
Markets Open ABC Consumer Comfort Index Mortgage Applications Weekly Money Supply Treasury International Capital
Flows (Aug)
19 20 21 22 23
NAHB Housing Index (Oct) Housing Starts (Sep) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Leading Economic Indicators Existing Home Sales (Sep)
Producer Price Index (Sep) Mortgage Applications (Sep)
Weekly Store Sales Weekly Jobless Claims
ABC Consumer Comfort Index Weekly Money Supply
26 27 28 29 30
Case-Shiller Home Price Index New Home Sales (Sep) Gross domestic Product (Q3, Personal Income and Outlays
(Aug) Durable Goods Orders (Sep) Advance) (Sep)
Consumer Confidence (Oct, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Jobless Claims Consumer Sentiment (Oct, Uni-
Conference Board) Mortgage Applications Weekly Money Supply versity of Michigan)
ABC Consumer Comfort Index Chicago PMI (Oct)
Weekly Store Sales Employment Cost Index (Q3)
November 2 3 4 5 6
ISM Manufacturing (Oct) FOMC Meeting FOMC Meeting Productivity and Costs (Q3, Employment Report (Oct)
Construction Spending (Sep) Vehicle Sales (Oct) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Preliminary) Wholesale Inentories (Sep)
Pending Home Sales (Sep) Factory Orders (Sep) (Oct) Wholesale Trade (Aug) Consumer Credit (Sep)
ABC Consumer Comfort Index ADP Employment (Oct) Weekly Jobless Claims
Weekly Store Sales Challenger Layoffs (Oct) Weekly Money Supply
Consumer Credit (Aug)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Applications
.
BLUE CHIP FORECASTERS
CONTRIBUTORS TO DOMESTIC SURVEY Moody’s Economy.com, West Chester, PA
Action Economics, LLC, Boulder, CO Dr. Mark M. Zandi
Dr. Michael Englund Naroff Economic Advisors, Philadelphia, PA
Argus Research Corp., New York, NY Dr. Joel L. Naroff
Dr. Richard A. Yamarone National Association of Realtors, Washington, DC
Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch, New York, NY Dr. S. Lawrence Yun
Dr. Ethan Harris Nomura Securities International, Inc., New York, NY
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd., New York, NY Dr. David H. Resler
Christopher S. Rupkey PNC Financial Services Group, Pittsburgh, PA
Barclays Capital, New York, NY Dr. Stuart G. Hoffman
Dr. Dean Maki RBS, Greenwich, CT
BMO Capital Markets Economics, Toronto, Canada Stephen Stanley and Michelle Girard
Dr. Sherry Cooper and Douglas Porter RDQ Economics, New York, NY
Chmura Economics & Analytics, Richmond, VA John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros
Dr. Christine Chmura and Dr. Xiaobing Shuai RidgeWorth Capital Management, Richmond, VA
ClearView Economics, LLC, Cleveland, OH Alan Gayle
Dr. Kenneth T. Mayland Russell Investments, Tacoma, WA
Comerica Bank, Detroit, MI Dr. Michael Dueker
Dana B. Johnson Scotiabank, Toronto, Canada
Conning & Company, Hartford, CT Aron Gampel and Dr. Warren Jestin
James A. Griffin Jr. Societe Generale, NY, New York
Cycledata Corp., San Diego, CA Stephen W. Gallagher
Robert S. Powers Standard & Poor's Corp., New York, NY
Daiwa Securities America, New York, NY Dr. David Wyss
Dr. Michael Moran Stone Harbor Investment Partners, LP, New York, NY
Economist Intelligence Unit, New York, NY Brian Keyser
Leo Abruzzese and Jan Friederich SunTrust Banks, Inc., Atlanta, GA
DePrince & Associates, Murfreesburo, TN Gregory L. Miller
Dr. Albert E. DePrince Jr. Swiss Re, New York, NY
Fannie Mae, Washington, DC Kurt Karl
Douglas Duncan The Northern Trust Company, Chicago, IL
Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA Paul L. Kasriel and Asha G. Bangalore
Dr. Rajeev Dhawan and Emin Hajiyev Thredgold Economic Associates, Salt Lake City, UT
GLC Financial Economics, Providence, RI Jeff K. Thredgold
Gary L. Ciminero UBS, New York, NY
Goldman, Sachs & Co., New York, NY Maury Harris, Samuel Coffin and Kevin Cummins
Jan Hatzius, Ed McKelvey, Andrew Tilton Wayne Hummer Investment, LLC., Chicago, IL
J.P. Morgan Chase, New York, NY William B. Hummer
Bruce Kasman and Robert Mellman Wells Capital Management, San Francisco, CA
JPMorgan Private Wealth Management, New York, NY Gary Schlossberg
Dr. Anthony Chan Wells Fargo, Charlotte, NC
J.W. Coons Advisors, LLC, Columbus, OH Dr. John Silvia and Mark Vitner
James W. Coons Woodley Park Research, Washington, DC
Kellner Economic Advisers, Port Washington, NY Richard J. DeKaser
Dr. Irwin L. Kellner Woodworth Holdings, Ltd., Summit, NJ
Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P., Bloomfield, MI Jay N. Woodworth
Brian Horrigan and David Sowerby CONTRIBUTORS TO INTERNATIONAL SURVEY
MacroFin Analytics, Wayne, NJ Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt, Germany
Dr. Parul Jain
ING Financial Markets, London, England
Mesirow Financial, Chicago, IL
Mizuho Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
Diane Swonk
Scotiabank, Toronto, Canada
Moody’s Capital Markets, New York, NY
John Lonski WestLB AG, Dusseldorf, Germany

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Vol. 28, No. 10, October 1, 2009

Publisher: Paul Gibson International Summary Table – Table of consensus forecasts of

Blue Chip Financial Forecasts® is a general cir- economic activity p. 15

Consensus Forecasts Of U.S. Interest Rates And Key Assumptions1

Corporate Bond Spreads U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

minus 10-Year T-Bond Yield

International Commentary The past month delivered a mix bag of

Fourth Quarter 2009

Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:

First Quarter 2010

Second Quarter 2010

Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:

Third Quarter 2010

Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:

Fourth Quarter 2010

Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:

First Quarter 2011

International Interest Rate And Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts

International Interest Rate And Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts

10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yields %

Consensus Forecasts Consensus Forecasts

A Sampling of Views on the Economy, Financial Markets and Government Policy

A Sampling of Views on the Economy, Financial Markets and Government Policy

Calendar Of Upcoming Economic Data Releases

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

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