US - Personal Income and Outlays 2014-2015 Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
In April 2014 real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell by 0.26% M/M (+2.65% Y/Y), from +0.81% M/M (+2.97% Y/Y) in
Mar14. Excluding food and energy, the fall is reduced to 0.05% M/M
For the 1Q2014, real PCE (constant 2009 dollars) was $ 10,914.3 bn (+0.77% Q/Q or +2.54% Y/Y)
For the 2Q2014 our estimate of PCE is $ 10,997.8 bn (down from previous estimate of $11,033.7 bn), in constant 2009 dollars
+0.76% Q/Q
Every month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce releases the data on Personal Income and Outlays.
Press release
April 2014 pdf, 11 pages
March 2014 pdf, 10 pages
February 2014 pdf, 11 pages
January 2014 pdf, 12 pages
The tables below summarize, on a quarterly basis, the main data and forecast for 2014 / 2015
Personal income and its distribution Million of Current dollars
Interest
Saving /
payments
Wages per
Personal
Personal
Quarter
Taxes
PCE
(Income
and other
employee
Income
Saving
Taxes)
transfers
46,770 2009Q1
12,038.6 1,195.5
9,763.3
418.9
660.9
6.09%
47,628 2009Q2
12,098.7 1,125.2
9,764.9
426.3
782.3
7.13%
47,853 2009Q3
12,056.7 1,126.4
9,887.4
428.7
614.1
5.62%
48,360 2009Q4
12,134.4 1,132.6
9,956.2
420.2
625.4
5.68%
48,099 2010Q1
12,194.3 1,145.6 10,042.3
417.6
588.9
5.33%
48,828 2010Q2
12,374.3 1,167.9 10,134.7
407.6
664.0
5.93%
49,302 2010Q3
12,502.1 1,209.4 10,234.3
403.2
655.2
5.80%
49,587 2010Q4
12,670.0 1,242.9 10,396.3
402.1
628.7
5.50%
50,211 2011Q1
13,029.9 1,376.0 10,527.1
408.9
717.9
6.16%
50,290 2011Q2
13,148.5 1,399.9 10,662.6
406.9
679.1
5.78%
50,705 2011Q3
13,283.6 1,421.5 10,778.6
407.2
676.2
5.70%
50,196 2011Q4
13,303.3 1,418.4 10,878.9
406.3
599.7
5.05%
51,284 2012Q1
13,548.6 1,462.8 11,019.1
409.3
657.3
5.44%
51,350 2012Q2
13,651.8 1,480.0 11,100.2
407.8
663.9
5.45%
51,427 2012Q3
13,701.6 1,496.4 11,193.6
407.4
604.1
4.95%
52,550 2012Q4
14,073.1 1,552.7 11,285.5
410.7
824.1
6.58%
51,960 2013Q1
13,925.9 1,629.0 11,379.2
415.7
502.0
4.08%
52,303 2013Q2
14,086.2 1,668.8 11,427.1
409.9
580.4
4.67%
52,428 2013Q3
14,225.3 1,657.6 11,537.7
412.7
617.3
4.91%
52,672 2013Q4
14,301.3 1,678.5 11,662.2
415.2
545.4
4.32%
52,934 2014Q1
14,417.3 1,698.3 11,792.1
418.8
508.2
4.00%
53,150 2014Q2
14,593.6 1,760.8 11,902.4
417.5
512.8
4.00%
53,201 2014Q3
14,715.6 1,785.6 11,990.3
416.3
523.4
4.05%
53,437 2014Q4
14,818.2 1,794.1 12,114.2
420.4
489.5
3.76%
53,673 2015Q1
14,921.4 1,815.3 12,239.1
422.3
444.6
3.39%
53,921 2015Q2
15,031.7 1,868.9 12,346.8
423.6
392.5
2.98%
54,007 2015Q3
15,123.3 1,895.6 12,417.3
421.3
389.2
2.94%
54,206 2015Q4
15,232.9 1,902.5 12,531.3
424.9
374.2
2.81%
Own estimate
Note: a decline in the saving rate is projected, although a moderate growth in the use of credit by consumers (reflected in low rates of
growth of interest payments).
Assumption: the Federal Reserves remains close to zero interest rate monetary policy.
PCE Current dollars
Quarter

Billion of
dollars

2009Q1
9,763.3
2009Q2
9,764.9
2009Q3
9,887.4
2009Q4
9,956.2
2010Q1
10,042.3
2010Q2
10,134.7
2010Q3
10,234.3
2010Q4
10,396.3
2011Q1
10,527.1
2011Q2
10,662.5
2011Q3
10,778.6
2011Q4
10,878.9
2012Q1
11,019.1
2012Q2
11,100.2
2012Q3
11,193.6
2012Q4
11,285.5
2013Q1
11,379.2
2013Q2
11,427.1
2013Q3
11,537.7
2013Q4
11,662.2
2014Q1
11,792.1
2014Q2
11,902.4
2014Q3
11,990.3
2014Q4
12,114.2
2015Q1
12,239.1
2015Q2
12,346.8
2015Q3
12,417.3
2015Q4
12,531.3
Own estimate
Also see: US GDP 1Q2014

Goods
3,137.0
3,148.4
3,244.9
3,263.5
3,304.9
3,325.6
3,362.4
3,458.4
3,532.1
3,588.2
3,622.3
3,668.2
3,729.3
3,738.4
3,784.9
3,826.1
3,851.8
3,848.5
3,912.8
3,930.3
3,932.8
3,980.2
4,021.0
4,049.8
4,052.8
4,087.6
4,120.8
4,155.1

Services
6,626.3
6,616.5
6,642.5
6,692.7
6,737.4
6,809.0
6,871.8
6,937.9
6,994.9
7,074.4
7,156.3
7,210.7
7,289.7
7,361.8
7,408.7
7,459.4
7,527.4
7,578.6
7,624.9
7,731.9
7,859.2
7,922.2
7,969.3
8,064.4
8,186.3
8,259.2
8,296.5
8,376.2

PCE Constant dollars

Per capita
PCE
31,881
31,821
32,147
32,295
32,510
32,750
33,007
33,463
33,828
34,207
34,511
34,766
35,159
35,360
35,588
35,813
36,053
36,146
36,425
36,749
37,100
37,387
37,593
37,910
38,239
38,513
38,665
38,947

Quarter
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4

Billion
(2009)
dollars
9,843.6
9,801.5
9,862.7
9,863.9
9,915.5
9,995.3
10,063.7
10,169.0
10,221.3
10,258.9
10,311.9
10,373.0
10,447.8
10,496.8
10,541.0
10,584.8
10,644.0
10,691.9
10,744.2
10,831.4
10,914.3
10,997.8
11,060.5
11,142.9
11,219.7
11,287.0
11,328.8
11,402.2

Goods
3,188.8
3,166.9
3,222.9
3,215.2
3,247.0
3,288.0
3,319.1
3,380.5
3,402.9
3,404.6
3,415.2
3,457.0
3,495.9
3,514.7
3,546.7
3,579.2
3,612.0
3,639.6
3,680.0
3,706.2
3,712.7
3,775.1
3,822.3
3,854.1
3,861.2
3,900.7
3,938.7
3,974.5

Services
6,655.3
6,634.7
6,639.5
6,648.5
6,668.3
6,707.3
6,744.6
6,788.5
6,818.2
6,854.1
6,896.6
6,915.5
6,951.2
6,981.4
6,993.4
7,004.7
7,031.1
7,051.5
7,063.6
7,124.8
7,200.5
7,222.5
7,238.3
7,288.9
7,358.5
7,386.3
7,390.1
7,427.6

PCE Price
Index
99.2
99.6
100.3
100.9
101.3
101.4
101.7
102.2
103.0
103.9
104.5
104.9
105.5
105.7
106.2
106.6
106.9
106.9
107.4
107.7
108.0
108.2
108.4
108.7
109.1
109.4
109.6
109.9