1Using a gridded global data set to characterize regional hydroclimate in central Chile 2 3E.M.C. Demaria1, E. Maurer2*, J. Sheffield3, E.

Bustos1, D. Poblete1, S. Vicu a1, !. Me"a1 . 21Ce#tro de Cambio $lobal, Po#tificia %#i&ersidad Cat'lica de Chile, Sa#tia(o, Chile 52Ci&il E#(i#eeri#( De)artme#t, Sa#ta Clara %#i&ersit*, Sa#ta Clara, C+, %S+ 33De)artme#t of Ci&il a#d E#&iro#me#tal E#(i#eeri#(, Pri#ceto# %#i&ersit*, Pri#ceto#, ,J, %S+ 0 6*Corres)o#di#( author, emaurer-e#(r.scu.edu, ./0122.12130. 1/ 11Pro)osed submissio# to J. 4*drometeorolo(* 12

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13Abstract 1.Ce#tral Chile is faci#( dramatic )ro7ectio#s of climate cha#(e, 8ith a co#se#sus for decli#i#( 12)reci)itatio#, #e(ati&el* affecti#( h*dro)o8er (e#eratio# a#d irri(ated a(riculture. 9isi#( from 15sea le&el to 5,/// meters 8ithi# a dista#ce of 2// :ilometers, )reci)itatio# characteri"atio# is 13difficult due to a lac: of lo#(1term obser&atio#s, es)eciall* at hi(her ele&atio#s. !or 10u#dersta#di#( curre#t mea# a#d e;treme co#ditio#s a#d rece#t h*droclimatolo(ical cha#(e, as 168ell as to )ro&ide a baseli#e for do8#scali#( climate model )ro7ectio#s, a tem)orall* a#d 2/s)atiall* com)lete data set of dail* meteorolo(* is esse#tial. <e use a (ridded (lobal dail* 21meteorolo(ical data set at /.22 de(ree resolutio# for 16.012//0, a#d ad7ust it usi#( mo#thl* 22)reci)itatio# obser&atio#s i#ter)olated to the same (rid usi#( a co:ri(i#( method 8ith ele&atio# 23as co&ariate. !or &alidatio#, 8e com)are dail* statistics of the ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio# to 2.statio# obser&atio#s. !or further &alidatio# 8e dri&e a h*drolo(* model 8ith the (ridded /.221 22de(ree meteorolo(* a#d com)are stream flo8 statistics 8ith obser&ed flo8. <e &alidate the hi(h 25ele&atio# )reci)itatio# b* com)ari#( the simulated s#o8 e;te#t to M=D>S ima(es. 9esults sho8 23that the dail* meteorolo(* 8ith the ad7usted )reci)itatio# ca# accuratel* ca)ture the statistical 20)ro)erties of e;treme e&e#ts as 8ell as the se?ue#ce of 8et a#d dr* e&e#ts, 8ith h*drolo(ical 26model results dis)la*i#( reaso#able a(reeme#t for obser&ed flo8 statistics a#d s#o8 e;te#t. @his 3/demo#strates the successful use of a (lobal (ridded data )roduct i# a relati&el* data1s)arse 31re(io# to ca)ture h*droclimatolo(ical characteristics a#d e;tremes. 32

32 .

3.Introduction 32 35<hether e;)lori#( teleco##ectio#s for e#ha#ci#( flood a#d drou(ht )redictabilit* or assessi#( 33the )ote#tial im)acts of climate cha#(e o# 8ater resources, u#dersta#di#( the res)o#se of the 30la#d surface h*drolo(* to )erturbatio#s i# climate is esse#tial. @his has i#s)ired the de&elo)me#t 36a#d assessme#t of ma#* lar(e scale h*drolo(* models for simulati#( la#d1atmos)here ./i#teractio#s o&er re(io#al a#d (lobal scales Ae.(.,Lawford et al., 2//.B Milly and Shmaki#, 2//2B .1Nijssen et al., 2//1aB Sheffield and Wood, 2//3C. .2 .3+ )rere?uisite to re(io#al h*droclimatolo(ical a#al*ses is a com)rehe#si&e, multi1decadal, ..s)atiall* a#d tem)orall* com)lete data set of obser&ed meteorolo(*, 8hether for historic .2simulatio#s or as a baseli#e for do8#scali#( future climate )ro7ectio#s. ># res)o#se to this #eed, .5data sets of dail* (ridded meteorolo(ical obser&atio#s ha&e bee# (e#erated, both o&er .3co#ti#e#tal re(io#s Ae.(.,Cosgrove et al., 2//3B Maurer et al., 2//2C a#d (loball* [Adam and .0Lettenmaier, 2//3B Sheffield et al., 2//5C. @hese ha&e be#efited from 8or: at coarser time scales .6[Chen et al., 2//2B Daly et al., 166.B Mit hell and !ones, 2//2B New et al., 2///B Willmott and 2/Matsuura, 2//1C, 8ith ma#* )roducts combi#i#( multi)le sources, such as statio# obser&atio#s, 21remotel* se#sed ima(es, a#d model rea#al*ses. 22 23<hile these lar(e1scale (ridded )roducts )ro&ide o))ortu#ities for h*drolo(ical simulatio#s for 2.la#d areas arou#d the (lobe, the* are i#e&itabl* limited i# their accurac* 8here the u#derl*i#( 22statio# obser&atio# de#sit* is lo8, the statio# locatio#s are i#ade?uate to re)rese#t com)le; 25to)o(ra)h*, or 8here the (ridded s)atial resolutio# is too lar(e for the re(io# bei#( studied. 23 5

23Ce#tral Chile is a# es)eciall* challe#(i#( e#&iro#me#t for characteri"i#( climate a#d h*drolo(* 20si#ce the terrai# e;hibits dramatic ele&atio# cha#(es o&er short dista#ces, a#d the oro(ra)hic 26effects this dri&es )roduce hi(h s)atial hetero(e#eit* i# )reci)itatio# i# )articular. ># (e#eral, the 5/obser&atio# statio# de#sit* i# South +merica is i#ade?uate for lo#(1term h*droclimate 51characteri"atio# [de "on alves et al., 2//5C. <hile some of South +merica is relati&el* 8ell 52re)rese#ted b* (lobal obser&atio#al datasets [Silva et al., 2//3C, re(io#s 8est of the +#des are 53much less so [Lie#mann and Allured, 2//2C. 5. 52># this stud*, 8e utili"e a #e8 hi(h1resolutio# (lobal dail* (ridded dataset of tem)erature a#d 55)reci)itatio#, ad7ust it 8ith a&ailable local climatolo(ical i#formatio#, a#d assess its utilit* for 53re)rese#ti#( ri&er basi# h*drolo(*. 9eco(#i"i#( the &alue i# simulati#( realistic e;treme e&e#ts, 508e assess the #e8 data )roduct for its abilit* to )roduce reaso#able dail* streamflo8 statistics. 56<e e&aluate the )ote#tial to re)roduce climate a#d h*drolo(* i# a )lausible ma##er, such that 3/historical statistics are re)roduced. 31 32@he )ri#ci)al aim of this stud* is to )roduce a (ridded re)rese#tatio# of the climate a#d 33h*drolo(* of ce#tral Chile, are demo#strate a methodolo(* for )roduci#( a reaso#able set of data 3.)roducts that ca# be used for future studies of re(io#al h*drolo(* or climate. $i&e# these 32re(io#al results, 8e assess the )ote#tial to e;)ort the method to other relati&el* data1s)arse 35re(io#s, 8here re)rese#tati&e climatolo(ical a&era(e i#formatio# is a&ailable but lo#(1term dail* 33data are i#ade?uate. @he )a)er is or(a#i"ed as follo8sD Sectio# 2 describes the stud* area. ># 30Sectio# 3 8e describe the data, the h*drolo(ical model a#d the methodolo(ical a))roach. 9esults

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36of the ad7usted data set &alidatio# a#d model simulatio#s are discussed i# Sectio# .. !i#all*, the 0/mai# co#clusio#s of the stud* are )rese#ted i# Sectio# 2. 01 02Region 03 0.@he focus area of this stud* is ce#tral Chile E!i(ure 1F, e#com)assi#( the four ma7or ri&er basi#s 02Efrom #orth to south, the 9a)el, Mata?uito, Maule, a#d >tata 9i&ersF bet8ee# latitudes 32.22G S 05a#d 33.2G S. @he climate is Mediterra#ea#, 8ith 0/H of the )reci)itatio# falli#( i# the rai#* 03seaso# from Ma*1+u(ust [$alvey and "arreaud, 2//3C. @he terrai# is dramatic, risi#( 00a))ro;imatel* 5/// meters 8ithi# a hori"o#tal dista#ce of a))ro;imatel* 2// :m, )roduci#( 06shar) (radie#ts i# climate [$alvey and "arreaud, 2//6C. 6/ 61Dri&e# b* the terrai#, the area e;hibits a dramatic climate (radie#t, 8ith mea# )reci)itatio# of 62a))ro;imatel* 2// mm )er *ear at the ,orth e#d of the stud* domai#, a#d as much as 3/// mm 63)er *ear i# the hi(h ele&atio#s at the Souther# e#d of the domai#. >t is e&ide#t from !i(ure 1 that 6.the hi(h ele&atio# areas are u#der1re)rese#ted b* a#* of the obser&atio# statio#s. 62 65@he re(io# of Ce#tral Chile is es)eciall* im)orta#t from a h*droclimatolo(ical sta#d)oi#t, as it 63co#tai#s the lar(est )ro)ortio# of irri(ated a(riculture a#d reser&oir stora(e of a#* re(io# i# the 60cou#tr* a#d )ro&ides 8ater su))l* for some of ChileIs lar(est cities. + cha#(i#( climate is 66e&ide#t i# rece#t h*droclimate records [%u#io&'lvare( and M )hee, 2/1/C, a#d future climate 1//)ro7ectio#s for the re(io# i#dicate the )ote#tial for &er* lar(e im)acts [*radley et al., 2//5C. @he 1/1&ul#erabilit* of Ce#tral Chile to )ro7ected climate cha#(e is hi(h, 8ith robust dr*i#( tre#ds i# 62 1/

1/2$e#eral Circulatio# Model E$CMF )ro7ectio#s, a#d a hi(h se#siti&it* to cha#(i#( s#o8 melt 1/3)atter#s [+i una et al., 2/1/C, 8ho also discuss the challe#(es i# characteri"i#( climate i# a 1/.Chilea# catchme#t 8ith fe8 )reci)itatio# obser&atio#s, a#d #o#e at hi(h ele&atio#s. 1/2 1/5Methods and data 1/3 1/0"ridded data set develo,ment 1/6 11/<e be(i# 8ith a (ridded (lobal Ela#d surfaceF dataset of dail* )reci)itatio# a#d mi#imum a#d 111ma;imum tem)eratures at /.22G s)atial resolutio# Ea))ro;imatel* 22 :mF, )re)ared follo8i#( 112Sheffield et al. A2//5C. @o summari"e, the forci#( dataset is based o# the ,CEPJ,C+9 113rea#al*sis [-alnay et al., 1665C for 16.012//0, from 8hich dail* ma;imum a#d mi#imum 11.tem)erature a#d dail* )reci)itatio# are obtai#ed at a))ro;imatel* 2G s)atial resolutio#. 1129ea#al*sis tem)eratures are based o# obser&atio#s, thou(h )reci)itatio# is a model out)ut a#d 115thus e;hibits si(#ifica#t biases. 113 110@he rea#al*sis tem)eratures are i#ter)olated to a /.22G s)atial resolutio#, la)si#( tem)eratures b* 11615.2GCK:m based o# the ele&atio# differe#ce bet8ee# the lar(e rea#al*sis s)atial scale a#d the 12/ele&atio# i# each /.22G (rid cell. Preci)itatio# is i#ter)olated to /.22G usi#( a )roduct of the 121@ro)ical 9ai#fall Measuri#( Missio# E@9MMF [.uffman et al., 2//3C follo8i#( the methods 122outli#ed b* Sheffield et al. A2//5C. @o e#sure lar(e1scale corres)o#de#ce bet8ee# this data set 123a#d the obser&atio#all*1based mo#thl* /.2G data from the Climate 9esearch %#it AC9%, Mit hell 12.and !ones, 2//2C, )reci)itatio# is scaled so the mo#thl* totals match the C9% mo#thl* &alues at 115 12

122the C9% s)atial scale. Ma;imum a#d mi#imum tem)eratures are also scaled to match the C9% 125time series, usi#( C9% mo#thl* mea# tem)erature a#d diur#al tem)erature ra#(e. 123 120<hile the i#cor)oratio# of multi)le sources of e;te#si&el* re&ie8ed data )ro&ides a# i#&aluable 126data )roduct for (lobal a#d co#ti#e#tal scale a#al*ses, as discussed b* Mitchell a#d Jo#es A2//2C 13/ultimatel* much of the local characteri"atio# is traceable to a commo# #et8or: of la#d surface 131obser&atio#s [)eterson et al., 1660C, 8hich is hi(hl* &ariable i# statio# de#sit* for differe#t 132re(io#s. !or e;am)le, for the re(io# of stud* sho8# i# !i(ure 1, a# a&era(e of 31. obser&atio# 133statio#s are i#cluded i# the C9% )reci)itatio# data )roduct, a#d #o#e are i# hi(h1ele&atio# areas. 13.@his results i# a fe8 lo8 ele&atio# meteorolo(ical statio#s i# Chile o# the 8ester# side of the 132+#des, a#d the #e;t obser&atio# statio# to the east is i# a more arid area i# +r(e#ti#a. @hus, the 135resulti#( )reci)itatio# fields i# the (ridded )roduct for this re(io# sho8ed a s)atial (radie#t 133o))osite to that )ublished b* the Direcci'# $e#eral de +(uas [D"+, 1603C. !i(ure 2a sho8s the 130s)atial distributio# of (ridded (lobal total a##ual )reci)itatio# that dis)la*s a #otable decrease of 136rai#fall 8ith a ele&atio#. Co#&ersel* the D$+ )reci)itatio# ma) is able to ca)ture the 1./climatolo(ical oro(ra)hic e#ha#ceme#t of )reci)itatio# b* the +#des E!i(ure 2bF . @he 1.1)reci)itatio# la)se rates for the latitudi#al ba#ds 132.122G S a#d 135.122G S sho8 a #e(ati&e 1.2(radie#t of )reci)itatio# 8ith ele&atio# i# the (lobal (ridded data set 8hereas the D$+ 1.3)reci)itatio# sho8s a )ositi&e (radie#t for the )eriod 1621106 E!i(ures 2c a#d 2d, res)ecti&el*F. 1.. 1.2Local data from the D$+ of Chile, some mo#thl* a#d some dail*, 8ere obtai#ed to characteri"e 1.5better the local climatolo(*. <hile still biased to8ard lo8 ele&atio# areas, the statio#s E!i(ure 1F 1.3do co&er a 8ider ra#(e a#d i#clude altitudes u) to 2.// m. @hese statio#s 8ere filtered to i#clude 133 1.

1.0those that had at least 6/H com)lete mo#thl* records for the 221*ear )eriod 160312//3. @he 1.6mo#thl* a&era(e )reci)itatio# for the 221*ear )eriod for these ./ D$+ statio#s 8as i#ter)olated 12/o#to the same /.22G (rid usi#( co:ri(i#(, 8ith ele&atio# bei#( the co&ariate. @his method of 121co:ri(i#( has bee# sho8# to im)ro&e :ri(i#( i#ter)olatio# to i#clude oro(ra)hic effects i#duced 122b* com)le; terrai# [Diodato and Ce arelli, 2//2B .evesi et al., 1662C. 123 12.@his )rocess )roduced 12 mo#thl* mea# )reci)itatio# ma)s for the re(io#. @he same 160312//3 122)eriod 8as e;tracted from the dail* (ridded data set, a#d mo#thl* a&era(e &alues 8ere calculated 125for each (rid cell. 9atios E12, o#e for each mo#thF of obser&ed climatolo(* di&ided b* the 123(ridded data set a&era(e 8ere the# calculated for each (rid cell. Dail* &alues i# the (ridded data 120set 8ere ad7usted to create a #e8 set of dail* )reci)itatio# data, P ad7, 8hich matches the 126i#ter)olated obser&atio#s )roduced 8ith co:ri(i#(, usi#( a sim)le ratioD
)adj ( i, j , t ) = )grid ( i, j , t ) )grid , mon ( i, j ) )o#s ,mon ( i, j )

E1F

15/8here P(rid is the ori(i#al dail* (ridded /.22G data at locatio# E i,jF, Pobs is the i#ter)olated 151obser&ed climatolo(*, o&erbars i#dicate the 221*ear mea#, a#d the subscri)t MmonN i#dicates the 152mo#th from the climatolo(* i# 8hich da* t falls. 153 15.@his same method 8as a))lied to a (lobal dataset of dail* meteorolo(* i# a data s)arse re(io# i# 152Ce#tral +merica, resulti#( i# im)ro&ed characteri"atio# of )reci)itatio# a#d la#d surface 155h*drolo(* [Maurer et al., 2//6C. ># additio#, this #e8 ad7usted data set i#cludes the full 16.01 1532//0 )eriod, des)ite the fact that local obser&atio#s are &er* s)arse before 160/. 150

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156@o &alidate the ad7usted )reci)itatio# data set, 8e com)uted a set of statistical )arameters 8idel* 13/used to describe climate e;tremes [dos Santos et al., 2/11B /0 1hang and 2an(, 2//.C. 131+dditio#all* to e&aluate the tem)oral characteristics of rai#fall e&e#ts 8e com)uted the 8et, dr* 132a#d tra#sitio# )robabilities. @able 1 sho8s a descri)tio# of the statistics used. 133 13.@o e&aluate if the ad7usted )reci)itatio# data set 8as ca)turi#( the oro(ra)hic (radie#t of 132)reci)itatio# 8e com)ared V>C simulated S#o8 <ater E?ui&ale#t ES<EF to the M=D>SK@erra 135S#o8 Co&er data set, 8hich is a&ailable at /./2 de(ree resolutio# for 01da* )eriods starti#( from 133the *ear 2///. M=D>S s#o8 co&er data are based o# a s#o8 ma))i#( al(orithm that em)lo*s a 130,ormali"ed Differe#ce S#o8 >#de; [.all et al., 2//5C. @o estimate s#o8 co&er from the 136meteorolo(ical data, a h*drolo(ical model 8as em)lo*ed. 10/ 101.ydrologi Model Simulations 102 103@o assess the abilit* of the dail* (ridded meteorolo(* de&elo)ed i# this stud* to ca)ture dail* 10.climate features across the 8atersheds, 8e simulate the h*drolo(* of ri&er basi#s i# the re(io# to 102obtai# streamflo8 a#d s#o8 co&er estimates. @he h*drolo(ic model used is the Variable 105>#filtratio# Ca)acit* EV>CF model [Cherkauer et al., 2//3B Liang et al., 166.C. @he V>C model is 103a distributed, )h*sicall*1based h*drolo(ic model that bala#ces both surface e#er(* a#d 8ater 100bud(ets o&er a (rid mesh. @he V>C model uses a MmosaicN scheme that allo8s a statistical 106re)rese#tatio# of the sub1(rid s)atial &ariabilit* i# to)o(ra)h*, i#filtratio# a#d &e(etatio#Kla#d 16/co&er, a# im)orta#t attribute 8he# simulati#( h*drolo(* i# hetero(e#eous terrai#. @he resulti#( 161ru#off at each (rid cell is routed throu(h a defi#ed ri&er s*stem usi#( the al(orithm de&elo)ed b* 136 10

162Lohma## et al. A1665C. @he V>C model has bee# successfull* a))lied i# ma#* setti#(s, from 163(lobal to ri&er basi# scale Ae.(.,Maurer et al., 2//2B Nijssen et al., 2//1bB Sheffield and Wood, 16.2//3C. 162 165!or this stud*, the model 8as ru# at a dail* time ste) at a /.22G resolutio# Ea))ro;imatel* 53/ 163:m2 )er (rid cell for the stud* re(io#F. Ele&atio# data for the basi# routi#( are based o# the 121 160arc1seco#d 4*drosheds dataset [Lehner et al., 2//5C, deri&ed from the Shuttle 9adar @o)o(ra)h* 166Missio# ES9@MF at 3 arc1seco#d resolutio#. La#d co&er a#d soil h*draulic )ro)erties 8ere based 2//o# &alues from Sheffield a#d <ood A2//3C, thou(h s)ecified soil de)ths a#d V>C soil )arameters 2/18ere modified duri#( calibratio#. @he ri&er s*stems co#tributi#( to selected )oi#ts 8ere defi#ed 2/2at a /.22G resolutio#, follo8i#( the tech#i?ue outli#ed b* =ODo##ell et al. A1666C. 2/3 2/.Results and Discussion 2/2 2/5@he ad7usted data set 8as &alidated i# se&eral 8a*s. !irst, dail* statistics 8ere com)ared 2/3bet8ee# the ad7usted (lobal dail* data set a#d local obser&atio#s, 8here a&ailable. Seco#d, 2/0h*drolo(ic simulatio# out)uts 8ere com)ared to obser&atio#s to i#&esti(ate the )lausibilit* of 2/6usi#( the #e8 data set as a# obser&atio#al baseli#e for stud*i#( climate im)acts o# h*drolo(*. 21/ 211"ridded meteorologi al data develo,ment and assessment 212 213@he ?ualit* of dail* (ridded )reci)itatio# fields 8as im)ro&ed usi#( a&ailable mo#thl* obser&ed 21.)reci)itatio#. 9ai# (au(e records from D$+ 8ere selected usi#( t8o criteriaD statio#s 8ith 161/ 2/

212records of t8e#t*1fi&e *ears a#d 8ith #o more tha# 1/H missi#( dail* measureme#ts. Based o# 215those t8o co#strai#ts the )eriod 160312//3 8as ide#tified as that 8ith the lar(est #umber of 213re)orti#( statio#s. !rom the )ool of 3/ a&ailable statio#s, ./ statio#s met the t8o criteria E!i(ure 2101F. E;ce)t for the >tata ri&er basi#, 8hich had t8o statio#s located at 12// a#d 2.// meters 216abo&e sea le&el, most of the selected statio#s 8ere located i# the ce#tral )art of the re(io# at 22/ele&atio#s belo8 2// meters. Mea# )reci)itatio# 8as com)uted for each mo#th a#d for each 221selected statio#, resulti#( i# 12 mea# &alues for the 221*ear climatolo(ical )eriod. 222 223Co:ri(i#( 8as the# a))lied to )roduce a set of 12 ma)s of climatolo(ical )reci)itatio# at /.22G 22.s)atial resolutio#. + scatter )lot bet8ee# obser&ed a#d )redicted mo#thl* )reci)itatio# for Jul*, 222the middle of the rai#* seaso#, is sho8# i# !i(ure 3. Co:ri(ed mo#thl* totals match 225obser&atio#s ?uite closel* for the re(io# 8ith a bias e?ual to 1/.0 H 8ith res)ect to the obser&ed 223&alues a#d a relati&e 9MSE of /.2/ H. 220 226!i(ure . sho8s the ad7usted (ridded a##ual )reci)itatio# fields a#d the differe#ce from the 23/ori(i#al (ridded obser&ed data set for the )eriod 162/12//5. >t is e&ide#t that i# the more humid 231souther# mou#tai#ous )ortio# of the stud* area there has bee# a mar:ed i#crease i# )reci)itatio# 2328ith the ad7ustme#t, i#cor)orati#( the more detailed i#formatio# embedded i# the rai# (au(e 233obser&atio#s. Differe#ces bet8ee# ori(i#al a#d ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio# i#dicates the 23.e;iste#ce of a ba#d alo#( the +#des 8here a##ual )reci)itatio# is (reater i# the ad7usted 232)reci)itatio# data set E!i(ure .bF. 235

2111 22

233@o &erif* ho8 the ad7usted dail* )reci)itatio# relates to obser&atio#s, 8e com)ared dail* rai#fall 230at selected /.22G (rid )oi#ts 8ith the da*1b*1da* mea#s of three rai# (au(e statio#s located i# 236a))ro;imatel* a 2/ :m diameter circle E!i(ure 2F. 9ai# (au(e statio#s 8ere selected from the 2./)ool of ./ statio#s used to )erform the co:ri(i#( i#ter)olatio#, he#ce the* had record of 22 *ears 2.18ith #ot more tha# 1/H missi#( &alues. Selected statio#s 8ere located, 8he# )ossible, #ot more 2.2that 2/H hi(her or lo8er ele&atio#s tha# that of the /.22G (rid cell. !our /.22G (rid )oi#ts 8ere 2.3selected for the com)ariso#. @he locatio#s of the four (rid )oi#ts are listed i# @able 2. !or these 2..four locatio#s, 8e com)uted basic statistics, bias, 9MSE a#d correlatio# coefficie#t for dail* 2.2obser&ed E=BSF a#d dail* ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio# E+DJF for +ustral summer EDJ!F a#d 2.5+ustral 8i#ter EJJ+F for the )eriod 160312//3. Summar* statistics are sho8# i# @able 3. @he 2.3bias is defi#ed as the sum of the differe#ces bet8ee# +DJ a#d =BS a#d the 9MSE is e?ual to 2.0the root mea# s?uared error bet8ee# the +DJ a#d =BS dail* )reci)itatio# &alues. 2.6 22/Mea# dail* &alues are &er* close for the obser&ed a#d ad7usted datasets for both seaso#s, 8hich 221is e;)ected (i&e# the ad7ustme#t )rocess. @he &ariabilit* of dail* )reci)itatio# 8ithi# each 222seaso#, re)rese#ted b* the sta#dard de&iatio#, also com)ares relati&el* 8ell, thou(h the ad7usted 223(ridded data sho8 (reater &ariabilit* tha# the obser&atio#s duri#( the rai#* 8i#ter seaso#. + 22.hi(h 9MSE a#d lo8 correlatio# &alues i#dicate that tem)oral se?ue#ci#( differs bet8ee# the t8o 222data sets. @his is #ot u#e;)ected, si#ce the dail* )reci)itatio# i# the ori(i#al /.22G (ridded data 2258as deri&ed from rea#al*sis, a#d as such it is a model out)ut that does #ot i#cor)orate statio# 223obser&atio#s [-alnay et al., 1665C. @hus, 8hile im)orta#t characteristics of dail* )reci)itatio# 220&ariabilit* are re)rese#ted i# the /.22G (ridded data, a#d mo#thl* totals should bear resembla#ce

2312 2.

226to obser&atio#s Eat least as re)rese#ted b* the u#derl*i#( mo#thl* data such as C9%F, 25/corres)o#de#ce 8ith obser&ed dail* )reci)itatio# e&e#ts is #ot a#tici)ated. 251 252<ith this limitatio# i# mi#d, 8e focus o# the statistics of dail* h*droclimatolo(*, rather tha# 253e&e#t1based statistics. Es)eciall* (i&e# the risi#( i#terest i# characteri"i#( e;treme e&e#ts i# the 25.co#te;t of a cha#(i#( climate [3)CC, 2/11C, the abilit* of the ad7usted dail* (ridded dataset to 252characteri"e e;treme statistics is im)orta#t. <e com)ute a set of statistical &ariables fre?ue#tl* 255used to describe climate e;tremes, usi#( the 9ClimDe; soft8are [/0 1hang and 2an(, 2//.B 253/ue#in 1hang et al., 2//2C. +dditio#all* 8e com)uted the )robabilit* of occurre#ce of 8et a#d 250dr* da*s a#d tra#sitio# )robabilities. !i(ure 5 sho8s bo; )lots of si; statistical )arameters listed 256i# @able 1 for the four locatio#s. E;treme )reci)itatio# e&e#ts E962)F are 8ell ca)tured i# the 23/ad7usted (ridded data set at most locatio#s. @he a(reeme#t bet8ee# ad7usted total a##ual 231)reci)itatio# EP9CP@=@F a#d obser&atio#s is (ood 8ith a# a&era(e bias of 16H from the 232obser&ed statio# mea# E#ot sho8#F, althou(h this is co#strai#ed b* desi(#, as #oted abo&e. @he 233Sim)le Dail* >#te#sit* >#de; ESD>>F, 8hich is a measure of the mea# a##ual i#te#sit* of rai#fall, 23.also sho8s (ood a(reeme#t at the four locatio#s, i#dicati#( that the #umber of rai#* da*s is 8ell 232re)rese#ted i# the ad7usted dataset. @he #umber of da*s 8ith i#te#sities lar(er tha# the 2/ mm 235E92/mmF com)ares 8ell bet8ee# obser&atio#s a#d ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio#, thou(h the 233ad7usted (ridded data sli(htl* u#derestimate obser&atio#s. @he ma;imum co#secuti&e #umber of 230dr* da*s a#d 8et da*s i# a *ear is lo8er for the ad7usted (ridded obser&atio#s com)ared to 236obser&atio#s su((esti#( the duratio#s of 8et a#d dr* e&e#ts are shorter i# the ad7usted (ridded 20/data set. 201 2213 25

202!i(ure 3 sho8s that the )robabilities of a da* bei#( 8et or dr* are com)arable bet8ee# both 203datasets E)a#els 3a a#d 3bF. Co#&ersel* the ad7usted )reci)itatio# data sho8s a# a&era(e 20.tra#sitio# )robabilit* of a 8et da* follo8ed b* a 8et da* of /.21 com)ared to /.2/ obtai#ed for 202the obser&atio#s su((esti#( that the duratio# of storm e&e#ts is shorter i# the ad7usted (ridded 205dataset. @his could )artiall* e;)lai# the u#derestimatio# of ma;imum co#secuti&e 8et da*s 203EC<DF i# the ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio# as 8ell. 200 206@he statistical ?ua#tities )rese#ted i# !i(ures 5 a#d 3 8ere com)ared statisticall* usi#( the 26/correlatio# coefficie#t a#d a t8o1sam)le u#)aired Stude#tOs t1test. @hese are summari"ed i# 261@able .. Statistics li#:ed to hi(h i#te#sit* e&e#ts E966) a#d 962) a#d ma;imum 11da* 262)reci)itatio# E9P1da*F ha&e statisticall* i#disti#(uishable mea#s for all four locatio#s. @he 263mea# a##ual )reci)itatio# a#d i#te#sit* )arameters EPrc)tot a#d SD>>F sho8 e?ual mea#s for 26.three out of the four locatio#s. Co#&ersel* the )arameters, 92mm 92/mm, albeit stro#(l* 262correlated, 8ere fou#d to ha&e statisticall* differe#t mea# &alues. @his )he#ome#o# of a (ridded 265)reci)itatio# data )roduce ha&i#( lo8er e;treme )reci)itatio# &alues tha# statio# obser&atio#s 2638as also #oted i# the South +merica# stud* of Sil&a et al. A2//3C a#d is co#siste#t 8ith the effect 260of s)atial a&era(i#(, i.e., com)ari#( the a&era(e of a 53/ :m 2 /.22G (rid cell to the smaller, more 266discrete area re)rese#ted b* the three a&era(ed statio#s [2evjevi h, 1632C. @he statistics related 3//to duratio# of 8et a#d dr* s)ells sho8ed statisticall* differe#t )o)ulatio# mea#s at all . 3/1locatio#s. 3/2 3/3.ydrologi Model +alidation of Adjusted Meteorology 3/. 231. 20

3/2@o assess the re)rese#tatio# i# the #e8 meteorolo(ical data set of basi#18ide a#d hi(h ele&atio# 3/5areas, the ad7usted (ridded data de&elo)ed a#d assessed i# the )re&ious sectio#s 8ere the# used 3/3to dri&e the V>C h*drolo(ic model. Si#ce the )reci)itatio# 8as sho8# to be com)arable to 3/0obser&atio#s E8here a&ailableF i# ma#* im)orta#t res)ects, a#other &alidatio# of the dri&i#( 3/6meteorolo(* 8ould be the successful simulatio# of obser&ed streamflo8 a#d s#o8 co&er. 31/9ecords of obser&ed streamflo8 i# the re(io# te#d to be i#com)lete or for short )eriods, a#d 311si#ce most of the ri&ers are affected b* reser&oirs a#d di&ersio#s the flo8s ofte# do #ot reflect 312#atural streamflo8 as simulated b* the V>C model. !or this )ro7ect, 8e focused o# three sites, 3138hich are sho8# i# !i(ure 1. 31. 312!or the site o# the Mata?uito 9i&er, the V>C model 8as calibrated to mo#thl* stream flo8s for 315the )eriod 166/11666 usi#( the Multi1=b7ecti&e Com)le; E&olutio# EM=C=M1%+F al(orithm 313[2a,o et al., 1660C. @he three o)timi"atio# criteria used i# this stud* 8ere the ,ash1Sutcliff 310model efficie#c* [Nash and Sut liffe, 163/C usi#( both flo8 E,SEF a#d the lo(arithm of flo8 316E,SElo(F, a#d the bias, e;)ressed as a )erce#t of obser&ed mea# flo8. @his )ro&ides a bala#ce 32/bet8ee# criteria that )e#ali"e errors at hi(h flo8s a#d others that are less se#siti&e to a small 321#umber of lar(e errors at hi(h flo8s [Lettenmaier and Wood, 1663C. !i(ure 0 sho8s the V>C 322simulatio# results for the calibratio# )eriod a#d for a &alidatio# )eriod of 2///12//3. @he flo8s 323for both )eriods (e#erall* meet the criteria for Msatisfactor*N calibratio# based o# the criteria of 32.Moriasi et al. A2//3C, 8ith a ,SE Q /.2/ a#d absolute bias R 22H Ethe third criterio# of Moriasi 3228as #ot calculated for this e;)erime#tF. <hile duri#( the &alidatio# )eriod se&eral of the 325ma;imum a##ual flo8 )ea:s are o&erestimated, resulti#( i# a lo8er ,SE score com)ared to the

2612 3/

323calibratio# )eriod, the reaso#able )ea:s, lo8 flo8s, a#d satisfactor* calibratio# a#d &alidatio# do 320ser&e to )ro&ide further &alidatio# of the dri&i#( meteorolo(* as )lausible. 326 33/Des)ite the hi(hl* &ariable )reci)itatio# across the stud* re(io#, 8e a))lied the same V>C 331calibrated )arameters from the Mata?uito basi# to the e#tire domai# a#d used the V>C model to 332(e#erate streamflo8 at the other t8o (a(e sites. @his a&oids the )ossibilit* of allo8i#( e;te#si&e 333calibratio# to hide meteorolo(ical data deficie#cies. @he simulated flo8s for the )eriod 2///1 33.2//3 for each site, a#d the associated statistics, are i# !i(ures 6 a#d 1/. @he simulated flo8s o# 332a&era(e sho8 little bias i# both locatio#s. @he Claro 9i&er ,SElo( &alue is lo8, reflecti#( the 335u#derestimatio# of lo8 flo8s a#d o&erestimatio# of )ea: flo8s duri#( the simulatio# )eriod, 333thou(h the hi(her ,SE &alue su((ests the errors at the hi(h flo8s are #ot as s*stematic. @he 330Lo#comillo 9i&er dis)la*s a (e#eral o&erestimatio# b* V>C of lo8 flo8s, thou(h both ,SE a#d 336,SElo( are abo&e the Msatisfactor*N threshold. <hile these are #ot demo#stratio#s of the best 3./h*drolo(ic model that could be de&elo)ed for each basi#, or the best that the V>C model could 3.1)roduce Esi#ce #o calibratio# 8as )erformed for t8o of the three basi#sF, the* do )ro&ide some 3.2further &alidatio# that the dri&i#( meteorolo(* a))ears )lausible, a#d does #ot a))ear to sho8 3.3a#* s*stematic biases. 3.. 3.2+ com)ariso# of four streamflo8 )ro)erties are sho8# i# !i(ure 11 for the three simulated 3.5basi#s. <e calculate the ce#ter timi#( EC@F, defi#ed as the da* 8he# half the a##ual E8ater *earF 3.3flo8 &olume has )assed a (i&e# )oi#t [Stewart et al., 2//2C, 8here the 8ater *ear ru#s from 3.0+)ril 1 throu(h March 31. C@ &alues lie 8ithi# the 111 to 13 da* 8i#do8 com)ared to obser&ed 3.6&alues, i#dicati#( the s#o8 melti#( seaso# is reaso#abl* ca)tured b* the model E!i(ure 11aF. 3115 32

32/@he u#)aired Stude#tOs t1test i#dicates the distributio#s ha&e e?ual mea#s at a 2H si(#ifica#ce 321le&el. @he 8ater *ear &olume a#d the 31da* )ea: flo8 are s*stematicall* o&erestimated b* V>C 322simulatio#s, ho8e&er their mea#s are fou#d to statisticall* e?ual 8ith the e;ce)tio# of the 9io 323Claro 31da* )ea: flo8. Lo8 flo8s are o&er a#d u#derestimated b* V>C simulatio#s but o#l* the 32.Lo#comillo 9i&er has mea#s that are statisticall* differe#t E!i(ure 11dF. 322 3259eco(#i"i#( the hi(h de)e#de#ce of this re(io# o# s#o8 melt a#d thus the im)orta#ce of this 323)rocess bei#( 8ell re)rese#ted, 8e &alidate the hi(h ele&atio# meteorolo(* of the #e8 data set 320b* com)ari#( V>C simulated S<E to M=D>S 01da* (lobal s#o8 co&era(e for si; e&e#ts 326bet8ee# 2//2 a#d 2//3. @he satellite ima(es 8ere selected i# mid +u(ust to ca)ture the 35/ma;imum s#o8 accumulatio# i# the re(io#. !ollo8i#( Maurer et al. A2//3C a s#o8 de)th of 35122.. mm 8as used as threshold to i#dicate the )rese#ce of s#o8 o# the (rou#d. M=D>S s#o8 352co&era(e 8as i#ter)olated to a /.22G (rid usi#( tria#(le1based cubic i#ter)olatio#. V>C simulated 353S<E 8as a&era(ed to match the M=D>S ei(ht1da* )eriod. Stro#( similarities i# the s)atial 35.e;te#t is fou#d bet8ee# M=D>S a#d V>C simulated the s#o8 co&era(e for the )eriod +u(ust 35221120, 2//2 E!i(ure 12F. @he a&era(e area co&ered b* s#o8 i# the si; *ears is 132,32/ a#d 355153,/2/ :m2 i# V>C simulatio#s a#d M=D>S, res)ecti&el*. @his re)rese#ts a 3H error i# the 353SC+ simulated b* the V>C model, 8hich is &er* small. 350 356@able 2 is a co#ti#(e#c* table of relati&e fre?ue#cies of s#o8K#o s#o8 i# M=D>S a#d V>C 33/simulated S<E. <e i#clude all the )i;els for the si; selected )eriods Etotal 123/F. @he #umber 331of )i;els classified as s#o8 or #o s#o8 are similar i# V>C a#d M=D>S 8ith fre?ue#cies of /.52 332a#d /.2.H for #o s#o8 a#d s#o8 classificatio#, res)ecti&el*. Co#&ersel* the occurre#ce of 3313 3.

333misclassified s#o8K#o s#o8 e&e#ts is ?uite lo8, i# the order of /./5H i#dicati#( a# e;celle#t 33.a(reeme#t bet8ee# both data sources. 332 335Conclusions 333 330># this stud* a# ad7usted (ridded dail* )reci)itatio# data set is de&elo)ed for Ce#tral Chile for 336the )eriod 16.012//0. 9ai# (au(e data are used to correct the i#accuracies i# the re)rese#tatio# 30/of oro(ra)hic distributio# of )reci)itatio# e;iste#t i# the a&ailable (lobal (ridded data set. 301+d7usted (ridded data are &alidated usi#( statio# obser&atio#s a#d h*drolo(ical model 302simulatio#s. 303 30.># data1s)arse re(io#s, a sim)le co:ri(i#( method that i#cor)orates to)o(ra)hic ele&atio# as 302co&ariate ca# be successfull* used to im)ro&e the s)atial re)rese#tatio# of (ridded )reci)itatio# 305i# areas 8ith com)le; terrai#. + mo#th1to1mo#th ad7usti#( ca# effecti&el* remo&e biases i# 303)reci)itatio# &alues haili#( from fe8 or #o#e;iste#t rai# (au(e obser&atio#s. 300 306@he ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio# is able to ca)ture )reci)itatio# e#ha#ceme#t due to oro(ra)h* 36/ i# the re(io# 8ith a (ood re)rese#tatio# of a##ual totals a#d )reci)itatio# i#te#sit*. 4o8e&er the 361duratio# of storm e&e#ts is sli(htl* shorter tha# obser&ed )erha)s as a result of com)ari#( a 53/ 362:m2 (rid cell to the smaller, more discrete, areal )reci)itatio# re)rese#ted b* three a&era(ed rai# 363(au(es. @he statistics of e;treme )reci)itatio# e&e#ts are 8ell ca)tured b* the ad7usted (ridded 36.data set 8hich e#coura(es its use for climate cha#(e a))licatio#s. 362 3210 35

365Streamflo8 simulatio#s i# three basi#s realisticall* ca)ture hi(h a#d lo8 flo8s statistical 363)ro)erties i#dicati#( that the dri&i#( meteorolo(* i# the ad7usted (ridded data set is 8ell 360re)rese#ted. Simulated S<E closel* resembles satellite obser&atio#s 8hich ca# be li#:ed to a 366(ood de)ictio# of 8i#ter rai#fall at hi(her ele&atio#s, des)ite the dri&i#( meteorolo(ical dataset .//i#cludi#( #o hi(h ele&atio# statio# obser&atio#s. ./1 ./2Based o# our results, the ad7usted dail* (ridded )reci)itatio# data set is &er* useful for ./3h*drolo(ic simulatio#s of climate &ariabilit* a#d cha#(e i# Ce#tral Chile. 4o8e&er there are t8o ./.ca&eats. !irst, 8e assume the )eriod 160312//3 is re)rese#tati&e of a lo#(er time )eriod, he#ce ./2lo#( term &ariabilit* of )reci)itatio# is assumed )ro)erl* ca)tured. Seco#d, the se#siti&it* of the ./5results to the #umber of rai# (au(es used to obtai# )lausible ad7usted &alues 8as #ot determi#ed. ./3Des)ite those, the methodolo(* )rese#ted i# this )a)er ca# be im)leme#ted i# #umerous data1 ./0s)arse basi#s located i# mou#tai#ous re(io#s arou#d the (lobe. ./6 .1/Acknowledgements .11@his stud* 8as fu#ded b* C=9!= >,,=V+ (ra#t to the Ce#tro de Cambio $lobal a#d the .12De)artame#to de >#(e#ierSa 4idrTulica * +mbie#tal at the Po#tificia %#i&ersidad Cat'lica de .13Chile. + !ulbri(ht Visiti#( Scholars $ra#t also )ro&ided )artial su))ort to the seco#d author.

3316 30

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.13Bradle*, 9. S., M. Vuille, 4. !. Dia", a#d <. Ver(ara E2//5F, @hreats to <ater Su))lies i# the .10 @ro)ical +#des, S ien e, 748E2301F, 132211325.

.16Che#, M., P. Pie, J. E. Ja#o8ia:, a#d P. +. +r:i# E2//2F, $lobal La#d Preci)itatio#D + 2/1*r .2/ Mo#thl* +#al*sis Based o# $au(e =bser&atio#s, !0 .ydrometeorology, 7E3F, 2.61255.

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.32Diodato, ,., a#d M. Ceccarelli E2//2F, >#ter)olatio# )rocesses usi#( multi&ariate (eostatistics .35 .33 for ma))i#( of climatolo(ical )reci)itatio# mea# i# the Sa##io Mou#tai#s Esouther# >tal*F, 9arth Surfa e )ro esses and Landforms, 75E3F, 2261250.

.30dos Sa#tos, C. +. C., C. M. %. ,eale, @. V. 9. 9ao, a#d B. B. da Sil&a E2/11F, @re#ds i# i#dices .36 ../ for e;tremes i# dail* tem)erature a#d )reci)itatio# o&er %tah, %S+, 3nt0 !0 Climatol0, 74E12F, 101311022.

..1!al&e*, M., a#d 9. $arreaud E2//3F, <i#tertime Preci)itatio# E)isodes i# Ce#tral ChileD ..2 ..3 +ssociated Meteorolo(ical Co#ditio#s a#d =ro(ra)hic >#flue#ces, !0 .ydrometeorology, 6E2F, 1311163.

...!al&e*, M., a#d 9. D. $arreaud E2//6F, 9e(io#al cooli#( i# a 8armi#( 8orldD 9ece#t ..2 ..5 tem)erature tre#ds i# the southeast Pacific a#d alo#( the 8est coast of subtro)ical South +merica E1636WX0211B2//5F, !0 "eo,hys0 %es0, 44:ED.F, D/.1/2.

..34all, D. U., $. S. 9i((s, a#d V. V. Salomo#so# E2//5F, %)dated dail*. M=D>SK@erra S#o8 ..0 ..6 Co&er 01Da* L3 $lobal /./2de( CM$ V//2, Di(ital media, edited, ,atio#al S#o8 a#d >ce Data Ce#ter, Boulder, Colorado %S+.

.2/4e&esi, J. +., J. D. >sto:, a#d +. L. !li#t E1662F, Preci)itatio# Estimatio# i# Mou#tai#ous .21 .22 @errai# %si#( Multi&ariate $eostatistics. Part >D Structural +#al*sis, !ournal of A,,lied Meteorology, 74E3F, 5511535.

.234uffma#, $. J., D. @. Bol&i#, E. J. ,el:i#, D. B. <olff, 9. !. +dler, $. $u, Y. 4o#(, U. P. .2. .22 .25 Bo8ma#, a#d E. !. Stoc:er E2//3F, @he @9MM Multisatellite Preci)itatio# +#al*sis E@MP+FD Vuasi1$lobal, Multi*ear, Combi#ed1Se#sor Preci)itatio# Estimates at !i#e Scales, !0 .ydrometeorology, 6E1F, 30122.

.121 .2

.23>PCC E2/11F, 3ntergovernmental )anel on Climate Change S,e ial %e,ort on Managing the .20 .26 .5/ %isks of 9;treme 9vents and Disasters to Advan e Climate Change Ada,tation, Summary for )oli ymakers, Cambrid(e %#i&ersit* Press, Cambrid(e, %#ited Ui#(dom a#d ,e8 Yor:, ,Y, %S+.

.51Ual#a*, E., M. Ua#amitsu, 9. Uistler, <. Colli#s, D. Dea&e#, L. $a#di#, M. >redell, S. Saha, $. .52 .53 <hite, J. <oolle#, Y. Zhu, +. Leetmaa, a#d B. 9e*#olds E1665F, @he ,CEPK,C+9 ./1*ear rea#al*sis )ro7ect, *ull0 Am0 Met0 So 0, <<E3F, .331.32.

.5.La8ford, 9. $., 9. Ste8art, J. 9oads, 4. J. >semer, M. Ma#to#, J. Mare#(o, @. Yasu#ari, S. .52 .55 .53 Be#edict, @. Uoi:e, a#d S. <illiams E2//.F, +d&a#ci#( $lobal1a#d Co#ti#e#tal1Scale 4*drometeorolo(*D Co#tributio#s of $E<EP 4*drometeorolo(* Pa#el, *ull0 Am0 Met0 So 0, 6=E12F, 16131163/.

.50Leh#er, B., U. Verdi#, a#d +. Jar&is E2//5F, 4*droS4EDS @ech#ical Docume#tatio# %e,0, .56 Ahtt)DKKh*drosheds.cr.us(s.(o&C )), <ashi#(to#, DC. .

.3/Lette#maier, D. P., a#d E. !. <ood E1663F, 4*drolo(ic !orecasti#(, i# .and#ook of .ydrology, .31 edited b* D. 9. Maidme#t, )). 25.21125.3/, Mc$ra814ill >#c., ,e8 Yor:, ,Y, %S+.

.32Lia#(, P., D. P. Lette#maier, E. <ood, a#d S. J. Bur(es E166.F, + sim)le h*drolo(icall* based .33 .3. model of la#d surface 8ater a#d e#er(* flu;es for (e#eral circulatio# models, !0 "eo,hys %es0, >>ED3F, 1..1211..20.

.32Liebma##, B., a#d D. +llured E2//2F, Dail* Preci)itatio# $rids for South +merica, *ull0 Am0 .35 Met0 So 0, 6?E11F, 12531123/.

.33Lohma##, D., 9. ,olte14olube, a#d E. 9asch:e E1665F, + lar(e1scale hori"o#tal routi#( model .30 to be cou)led to la#d surface )arameteri"atio# schemes, @ellus, :6A, 3/01321.

.322 ..

.36Maurer, E. P., J. C. +dam, a#d +. <. <ood E2//6F, Climate model based co#se#sus o# the .0/ .01 h*drolo(ic im)acts of climate cha#(e to the 9io Lem)a basi# of Ce#tral +merica, .ydrol0 9arth System S i0, 47E2F, 103116..

.02Maurer, E. P., J. D. 9hoads, 9. =. Duba*ah, a#d D. P. Lette#maier E2//3F, E&aluatio# of the .03 s#o81co&ered area data )roduct from M=D>S, .ydrol0 )ro esses, 4<E1F, 26131.

.0.Maurer, E. P., +. <. <ood, J. C. +dam, D. P. Lette#maier, a#d B. ,i7sse# E2//2F, + lo#(1term .02 .05 h*drolo(icall*1based data set of la#d surface flu;es a#d states for the co#termi#ous %#ited States, !0 Climate, 4=E22F, 323313221.

.03Mill*, P. C. D., a#d +. B. Shma:i# E2//2F, $lobal Modeli#( of La#d <ater a#d E#er(* .00 Bala#ces. Part >D @he La#d D*#amics ELaDF Model, !0 .ydrometeorology, 7E3F, 2031266.

.06Mitchell, @. D., a#d P. D. Jo#es E2//2F, +# im)ro&ed method of co#structi#( a database of .6/ .61 mo#thl* climate obser&atio#s a#d associated hi(h1resolutio# (rids, 3nt0 !0 Climatol0, 8=E5F, 5631312.

.62Moriasi, D. ,., J. $. +r#old, M. <. V. Lie8, 9. L. Bi#(#er, 9. D. 4armel, a#d @. L. Veith .63 .6. E2//3F, Model e&aluatio# (uideli#es for s*stematic ?ua#tificatio# of accurac* i# 8atershed simulatio#s, @rans0 of ASA*9, =5E3F, 00216//.

.62,ash, J. E., a#d J. V. Sutcliffe E163/F, 9i&er flo8 forecasti#( throu(h co#ce)tual models )art > 11 .65 + discussio# of )ri#ci)les, !0 .ydrol0, 45E3F, 202J26/.

.63,e8, M. $., M. 4ulme, a#d P. D. Jo#es E2///F, 9e)rese#ti#( t8e#tieth1ce#tur* s)ace1time .60 .66 climate &ariabilit*. Part >>D de&elo)me#t of 165116/ mo#thl* (rids of terrestrial surface climate, !0 Climate, 48, 0261025.

2//,i7sse#, B., 9. Sch#ur, a#d D. P. Lette#maier E2//1aF, $lobal retros)ecti&e estimatio# of soil 2/1 .223 .5 moisture usi#( the V>C la#d surface model, 160/11663, !0 Climate, 4:E0F, 136/110/0.

2/2,i7sse#, B., $. M. =IDo##ell, D. P. Lette#maier, D. Lohma##, a#d E. !. <ood E2//1bF, 2/3 Predicti#( the dischar(e of (lobal ri&ers, !0 Climate, 4:, 136/110/0.

2/.=IDo##ell, $., B. ,i7sse#, a#d D. P. Lette#maier E1666F, + sim)le al(orithm for (e#erati#( 2/2 2/5 streamflo8 #et8or:s for (rid1based, macroscale h*drolo(ical models, .ydrol0 )ro esses, 47E0F, 125611232.

2/3Peterso#, @. C., 9. Vose, 9. Schmo*er, a#d V. 9a"u&a[& E1660F, $lobal historical climatolo(* 2/0 2/6 #et8or: E$4C,F ?ualit* co#trol of mo#thl* tem)erature data, 3nt0 !0 Climatol0, 46E11F, 115611136.

21/9ubio1\l&are", E., a#d J. McPhee E2/1/F, Patter#s of s)atial a#d tem)oral &ariabilit* i# 211 212 streamflo8 records i# south ce#tral Chile i# the )eriod 1622J2//3, Water %esour0 %es0, :?, </221., doiD/221/./1/26K/2//6<9//3602.

213Sheffield, J., a#d E. !. <ood E2//3F, Characteristics of (lobal a#d re(io#al drou(ht, 21. 212 162/WX0211B2///D +#al*sis of soil moisture data from off1li#e simulatio# of the terrestrial h*drolo(ic c*cle, !0 "eo,hys0 %es0, 448ED13F, D13112.

215Sheffield, J., $. $oteti, a#d E. !. <ood E2//5F, De&elo)me#t of a 2/1*r hi(h1resolutio# (lobal 213 dataset of meteorolo(ical forci#(s for la#d surface modeli#(, !0 Climate, 4>E13F, 3/0013111.

210Sil&a, V. B. S., V. E. Uous:*, <. Shi, a#d 9. <. 4i((i#s E2//3F, +# >m)ro&ed $ridded 216 4istorical Dail* Preci)itatio# +#al*sis for Bra"il, !0 .ydrometeorology, 6E.F, 0.31051.

22/Ste8art, >. @., D. 9. Ca*a#, a#d M. D. Detti#(er E2//2F, Cha#(es to8ard earlier streamflo8 221 timi#( across 8ester# ,orth +merica, !0 Climate, 46E0F, 113511122.

222Vicu#a, S., 9. D. $arreaud, a#d J. McPhee E2/1/F, Climate cha#(e im)acts o# the h*drolo(* of 223 a s#o8melt dri&e# basi# i# semiarid Chile, Climati Change, Ain ,ressB.

.32. .0

22.<illmott, C. J., a#d U. Matsuura E2//1F, @errestrial air tem)erature a#d )reci)itatio#D mo#thl* 222 225 a#d a##ual time series E162/J1666F EVersio# 1./2F%e,0, Ce#ter for Climatic 9esearch, %#i&ersit* of Dela8are, ,e8ar:, DE, %S+.

223Ya)o, P. =., 4. V. $u)ta, a#d S. Sorooshia# E1660F, Multi1ob7ecti&e (lobal o)timi"atio# for 220 h*drolo(ic models, !0 .ydrol0, 85:, 03163.

226Ye&7e&ich, V. E1632F, )ro#a#ility and Statisti s in .ydrology, <ater 9esources Publicatio#s, !t. 23/ Colli#s, C=, %S+.

231Zha#(, P., a#d !. Ya#( E2//.F, 9ClimDe; E1./F %ser $uide %e,0, Climate 9esearch Bra#ch, 232 E#&iro#me#t Ca#ada, Do8#s&ie8, =#tario, Ca#ada.

233Zha#(, P., E. +(uilar, S. Se#so*, 4. Mel:o#*a#, %. @a(i*e&a, ,. +hmed, ,. Uutalad"e, !. 23. 232 235 233 230 236 9ahim"adeh, +. @a(hi)our, @. 4. 4a#tosh, P. +lbert, M. Sema8i, M. Uaram +li, M. 4. Said +l1Shabibi, Z. +l1=ula#, @. Zatari, >. +l Dea# Uhelet, S. 4amoud, 9. Sa(ir, M. Demirca#, M. E:e#, M. +di(u"el, L. +le;a#der, @. C. Peterso#, a#d @. <allis E2//2F, @re#ds i# Middle East climate e;treme i#dices from 162/ to 2//3, !0 "eo,hys0 %es0, 445ED22F, D221/..

.622 2/

2./Table 1 !ist of statistical "uantities and descri#tions$ ,ame 962) 966) P9CP@=@ C<D CDD SD>> 92mm 92/mm 9P1d 9P2d P< PD P<< PDD 2.1 2.2Table % !ocation of ad&usted gridded #reci#itation grid cells used in daily #reci#itation Descri)tio# +##ual total )reci)itatio# 8he# rai#fall Q 62th )rctile +##ual total )reci)itatio# 8he# rai#fall Q 66th )rctile +##ual total )reci)itatio# i# 8et da*s E99 Q]1mmF Co#secuti&e 8et da*sD lar(est #umber of co#secuti&e 8et da*s 8ith 99 Q]1mm Co#secuti&e dr* da*sD lar(est #umber of co#secuti&e dr* da*s 8ith 99 R]1mm Sim)le dail* i#te#sit* i#de;D mea# a##ual i#te#sit* for 99 Q ] 1 mm +##ual cou#t of da*s 8ith Preci)itatio# Q] 2 mm +##ual cou#t of da*s 8ith Preci)itatio# Q] 2/ mm Ma;imum 1 da* )reci)itatio# i# the *ear Ma;imum 2 da*s )reci)itatio# i# the *ear Probabilit* of <et da*s Probabilit* of Dr* da*s Probabilit* of a 8et da* follo8ed b* a 8et da* Probabilit* of a dr* da* follo8ed b* a dr* da*

2.3'alidation$ /.22G $rid Cell +bbre&iatio# Loc1 Loc2 $rid Cell Ce#ter Latitude 13..332 13..032 $rid Cell Ce#ter Lo#(itude 13/.032 131.122

2125 22

Loc3 Loc. 2..

132.032 135.122

131.122 131.522

2323 2.

2.2
2.5Table (

Daily #reci#itation statistics for summer )D*+, and winter )**A, #eriods- 1./( %001$ 234 are

2.3obser'ations- AD* are ad&usted gridded meteorology$ Summer EDJ!F Statistics =BS +DJ Mea# EmmF Loc1 /./0 Loc2 /.1. Loc3 /.5. Loc. /.5/ <i#ter EJJ+F Statistics Loc1 3.0/ Loc2 2.5. Loc3 13.53 Loc. 3.2. 2.0 2.6 Mea# EmmF /./0 /.11 /.5/ /.2. 3.25 ..32 12.20 3.35 =BS Std +DJ Std Mea# EmmF 1.21 1.51 2... ..30 1/.00 1..13 3/..5 1..21 EmmF /.53 /.26 2.26 2.3. 13.65 15.32 33.36 22./0 Bias EmmF /.// 1/./3 1/./. 1/./3 1/.23 1/.62 11./2 /.12 9MSE EmmF 1.33 1.31 2.00 ..66 13.15 2/.66 .5.10 22.5. 1/./1 /./2 /./1 1/./1 /./5 /./6 /./0 /./5 Correlatio#

2220 25

22/
221Table 5

Correlation coefficients between obser'ed and ad&usted daily #reci#itation statistical #arameters$

2224haded 'alues indicate the null hy#othesis of e"ual means cannot be re&ected at the 67 le'el based on a t test$ Loc1 Loc2 Loc3 Loc. 223 966) 0$10 0$50 0$1/ 0$(1 962) 0$10 0$86 0$51 0$%. P9C@=@ 0$.8 /.62 0$/( 0$/1 SD>> 0$18 0$86 /.23 0$61 92mm /.20 /.51 0$81 /.31 92/mm 0$/% /.0. /.52 /.33 C<D /.33 /..3 /.22 /.// CDD /..2 /.30 /.33 /.20 9P1d 0$1/ 0$1. 0$56 0$68 9P2d /.51 0$6( /..0 /.33

2326 20

22.
222Table 6 Contingency table summarizing the com#arisons of M2DI4 and 9IC simulated snow co'er$ 9alues

225are relati'e fre"uencies calculated as the total number of occurrences in each category di'ided by the number 223of #i:els )16(0,$ ,o S#o8 S#o8 @otal 220 ,o S#o8 /.52 /./5 /.31 S#o8 /./2 /.2. /.26 @otal /.56 /.31 1./

263/ 5/

226!ist of +igures 25/ !i(ure 1 1 $eo(ra)hic locatio# of the stud* area i# Ce#tral Chile. !rom #orth to south the basi#s areD 9a)el, Mata?uito EMata?uito ri&er at Lica#te#F, Maule EClaro ri&er at 9au?ue# a#d Lo#comilla ri&er at Bode(aF a#d >tata ri&er basi#s. Circles i#dicate the locatio# of D$+ rai# (au(es a#d stars the locatio# of the three stream (au(es used i# V>C simulatio#s !i(ure 2 1 Ma)s of a##ual )reci)itatio# for the )eriod 16211160/. Source aF (ridded (lobal obser&atio#s a#d bF D$+. Preci)itatio# la)se rates for latitudi#al ba#ds 132.122 S a#d 135.122 S for cF (lobal (ridded )reci)itatio# data set a#d dF D$+ data set. !i(ure 3 1 Scatter)lots of obser&ed a#d )redicted mo#thl* )reci)itatio# for the mo#th of Jul*. !i(ure . 1 aF +##ual ad7usted (lobal )reci)itatio# for the )eriod 162/12//5 a#d bF differe#ces bet8ee# the ori(i#al (lobal (ridded a#d the ad7usted (lobal )reci)itatio# data sets. !i(ure 2 1 Locatio# of D$+ rai# (au(e statio#s a#d ad7usted (lobal )reci)itatio# (rid )oi#ts used for &alidatio# of dail* rai#fall. !i(ure 5 1 Bo;)lots of statistical )arameters, (ree# re)rese#ts obser&atio#s a#d )ur)le re)rese#ts ad7usted )reci)itatio# for each (eo(ra)hic locatio#. @he bottom a#d to) li#es re)rese#t the 22th a#d 32th )erce#tiles a#d the middle li#e re)rese#ts the media#. <his:ers e;te#d from each e#d of the bo; to the ad7ace#t &alues i# the data 8ithi# 1.2 times the >#ter Vuartile 9a#(e. @he >#ter Vuartile 9a#(e is the differe#ce bet8ee# the third a#d the first ?uartile, i.e., 22th a#d 32th )erce#tiles. =utliers are dis)la*ed 8ith a )lus si(#. !i(ure 3 1 Probabilities of aF 8et a#d bF dr* da*s, a#d tra#sitio# )robabilities cF a#d dF. Dail* obser&ed Eblac:F a#d ad7usted (ridded E(re*F )reci)itatio# for the four selected locatio#s.

5131 52

!i(ure 0 1 =bser&ed a#d Simulated mo#thl* flo8s for the Mata?uito ri&er at Lica#te# for the calibratio# )eriod Eto) )a#elF a#d &alidatio# )eriod Ebottom )a#elF. Summar* statistics are sho8# i# each )a#el. !i(ure 6 1 Mo#thl* obser&ed a#d simulated flo8s for the Claro ri&er at 9au?ue#. !i(ure 1/ 1 Same as !i(ure 6 but for Lo#comilla ri&er at Bode(a. !i(ure 11 1 Statistical )ro)erties of obser&ed a#d V>C simulated stream flo8s i# three basi#sD Mata?uito ri&er, Claro ri&er a#d Lo#comilla ri&er. EaF Ce#ter timi#(, EbF 8ater *ear &olume, EcF 31da* )ea: flo8s a#d EdF 31da* lo8 flo8s. !i(ure 12 1 Com)ariso# of s#o8 co&era(e for the )eriod +u(ust 21120, 2//2. Shaded areas i#dicate s#o8 co&era(e. aF M=D>S a#d bF V>C simulated S#o8 <ater E?ui&ale#t.

5332 5.

251
252+igure 1 ;eogra#hic location of the study area in Central Chile$ +rom north to south the basins are< Ra#el-

253Mata"uito )Mata"uito ri'er at !icanten,- Maule )Claro ri'er at Rau"uen and !oncomilla ri'er at 3odega, 25.and Itata ri'er basins$ Circles indicate the location of D;A rain gauges and stars the location of the three 252stream gauges used in 9IC simulations

5233 55

255
253+igure % Ma#s of annual #reci#itation for the #eriod 1.61 1./0$ 4ource a, gridded global obser'ations and

250b, D;A$ =reci#itation la#se rates for latitudinal bands (6$1%6 4 and (8$1%6 4 for c, global gridded 256#reci#itation data set and d, D;A data set$ 23/ 231

533. 50

232
233+igure (

4catter#lots of obser'ed and #redicted monthly #reci#itation for the month of *uly$

23.

5632 3/

232
235+igure 5

a, Annual ad&usted global #reci#itation for the #eriod 1.60 %008 and b, differences between the

233original global gridded and the ad&usted global #reci#itation data sets$ 230

3135 32

236
20/+igure 6

!ocation of D;A rain gauge stations and ad&usted global #reci#itation grid #oints used for

201'alidation of daily rainfall$ 202

3333 3.

203
20.+igure 8

3o:#lots of statistical #arameters- green re#resents obser'ations and #ur#le re#resents ad&usted

202#reci#itation for each geogra#hic location$ The bottom and to# lines re#resent the %6th and 16th #ercentiles 205and the middle line re#resents the median$ >hiskers e:tend from each end of the bo: to the ad&acent 'alues 203in the data within 1$6 times the Inter ?uartile Range$ The Inter ?uartile Range is the difference between the 200third and the first "uartile- i$e$- %6th and 16th #ercentiles$ 2utliers are dis#layed with a #lus sign$

3230 35

206
26/+igure 1

=robabilities of a, wet and b, dry days- and transition #robabilities c, and d,$ Daily obser'ed

261)black, and ad&usted gridded )grey, #reci#itation for the four selected locations$ 262

3336 30

263
26.+igure /

2bser'ed and 4imulated monthly flows for the Mata"uito ri'er at !icanten for the calibration

262#eriod )to# #anel, and 'alidation #eriod )bottom #anel,$ 4ummary statistics are shown in each #anel$ 265

36./ 0/

263
260+igure . Monthly obser'ed and simulated flows for the Claro ri'er at Rau"uen$

01.1 02

266
5//+igure 10 4ame as +igure . but for !oncomilla ri'er at 3odega$

5/1

03.2 0.

5/2
5/3+igure 11

4tatistical #ro#erties of obser'ed and 9IC simulated stream flows in three basins< Mata"uito

5/.ri'er- Claro ri'er and !oncomilla ri'er$ )a, Center timing- )b, water year 'olume- )c, ( day #eak flows and 5/2)d, 1 day low flows$ 5/5

02.3 05

5/3
5/0+igure 1%

Com#arison of snow co'erage for the #eriod August %1 %/- %00%$ 4haded areas indicate snow

5/6co'erage$ a, M2DI4 and b, 9IC simulated 4now >ater @"ui'alent$ 51/

03.. 00