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AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet
AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet
Author All spreadsheet related questions and support is now handled only through the forum.
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/forum/spreadsheet-installation/
Disclaimer
Nothing on Old School Value, related pages, emails, or other communications by the author, either written or oral, are intended to be a
recommendation to either buy, hold, or sell any specific security or group of securities. Likewise, nothing herein should be construed as an
endorsement of any financial adviser, investment manager, commercial information provider, transaction service, or brokerage firm.
The findings from this spreadsheet is merely a start to a means of further research and uncovering a great business and investment. Old
School Value holds no responsibility for any investment whatsoever.
- When requesting help, please try to find out whether it is a spreadsheet issue or excel issue.
PDF: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/intrinsic-value-spreadsheets/installation-troubleshooting-guide/
Forum: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/forum/spreadsheet-installation/
How to Use
- Yellow highlighted fields are user input fields. Enter ticker in the Summary tab only.
- Use yellow fields to override the default values without messing up formulas and accidently saving incorrect values
- If a graph is squashed or looks out of place, zoom in and zoom out to refresh the view.
- Press F9 to start calculations. Automatic formula calculations have been turned off in the excel menu to improve start speed and convenience.
- Summary page provides a quick overview of all valuation methods and important graphs and numbers. Easy to add more or less yourself.
- DCF Valuation is based on discounted cash flow. Important company fundamental metrics included.
- Useful for companies with either 5yr or 10yrs of operating history
- Use 5yr version if there has been a recent turnaround or a major event changing the fundamentals of the business
- Use 10yr version for stable, cash cows such as KO or JNJ. You can even use it for stable consistent small caps
- Adjust user growth, discount rate, FCF override, terminal rate (default 3%)
- Price vs Value tab displays only the DCF intrinsic value compared to the historical stock price. (Thinking of how to add Graham intrinsic value and
EPV to the graph)
- Graham Intrinsic Value is based on Ben Graham's formula defined in the Intelligent Investor
Intrisic Value = "normal" earnings x (8.5 + (2 x expected 5 yr growth)) x (4.4/20yr A corp bond)
- Use for companies where FCF is erratic such as cyclicals or short history companies.
- Remember that earnings are usually inflated.
Companies may overstate earnings by hiding some numbers in there but they will never understate earnings on purpose.
- Which means that the value you get with the Graham equation will be higher than normal.
- Use high margin of safety (MOS)
- Adjust user growth
- Assessment tab is a checklist that you should try to folllow before making investment decisions.
- You should at least be able to draw up the spider graph
Company Name ticker
Apple Inc www.oldschoolvalue.com AAPL
10/1/2009 Figures in Millions except per share values
Apple Inc.designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, portable digital music players, and mobile communication devices and sells a variety of related software, services, peripherals, and networking
solutions. The Company sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, and third-party wholesalers, resellers, and value-added resellers. In addition, the Company sells a
variety of third-party Macintosh (Mac), iPod and iPhone compatible products, including application software, printers, storage devices, speakers, headphones, and various other accessories and peripherals through its
online and retail stores, , and digital content through the iTunes Store. It sells to consumer, small and mid-sized business (SMB), education, enterprise, government, and creative customers.
Asset Valuation EPV Valuation Graham Valuation DCF Valuation Current Price
Total Net Reprod. Cost $ 10.57 EPV $ 68.52 Graham Price $ 102.87 DCF Price $ 161.07 $ 183.62
Reprod. Cost of Assets BV $ 36.95 Normalized Income $ 3,692.87 Growth Rate 30% Growth Rate 20%
Tangible BV $ 30.26 Discount Rate 9% Normalized EPS $ 2.03 Discount Rate 9%
NNWC $ 7.31 Margin of Safety 0% Margin of Safety 0% Margin of Safety 0%
200
150
Historical Price
Intrinsic Value
100 Buy Price
50
0
1/21/2003 7/21/2003 1/21/2004 7/21/2004 1/21/2005 7/21/2005 1/21/2006 7/21/2006 1/21/2007 7/21/2007 1/21/2008 7/21/2008 1/21/2009 7/21/2009
Multi-Year Performance
2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 Median
Shareholder Equity 36.3% 42.5% 33.6% 41.8% 40.7% 33.8% 40.3% 38.8% 44.7% 40.3%
Free Cash Flow 261.6% 102.6% 342.3% 130.9% 49.8% 734.7% 149.6% 56.7% 64.6% 130.9%
CROIC 14.7% 15.7% 9.7% 15.2% 16.3% 4.7% 14.7% 15.7% 16.9% 15.2%
FCF/Sales 8.1% 9.0% 5.5% 8.5% 10.9% 3.0% 8.1% 9.0% 12.8% 8.5%
ROA 13.6% 13.8% 8.7% 13.7% 14.4% 3.7% 13.6% 13.8% 14.9% 13.7%
ROE 21.3% 22.8% 13.6% 22.0% 25.0% 5.9% 21.3% 22.8% 27.2% 22.0%
Revenue Growth 40.2% 40.7% 46.0% 42.6% 32.6% 49.8% 52.7% 31.3% 29.7% 40.7%
Gross Margin 29.0% 29.0% 28.2% 29.0% 31.5% 27.5% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 29.0%
Operating Margin 11.8% 12.7% 7.9% 12.3% 15.5% 3.9% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 12.3%
Net Margin 9.6% 10.3% 6.5% 9.9% 12.4% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 9.9%
Earnings Growth 150.4% 96.4% 183.1% 121.8% 50.9% 295.0% 151.1% 58.7% 53.7% 121.8%
Cash from Ops Growth 108.6% 79.0% 97.3% 80.3% 55.8% 196.2% 54.2% 46.9% 107.9% 80.3%
Margin Percentages
40.00%
35.00% 34.31%
33.97%
30.00%
29.02% 28.98%
27.65% 27.13% 27.92% 27.52% 27.29%
25.00%
23.03%
20.00% 19.32%
18.37% Gross Margin
15.00% 14.56% 14.88% Operating Margin
11.84% 12.70%
Net Margin
10.00% 9.80% 9.85% 9.58% 10.30%
5.85% 6.54%
5.00%
3.94%
3.33%
1.13%
0.30% 1.11%
0.00% -0.47% -0.02%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-5.00%
-6.41%
-10.00%
Free Cash Flow vs Tangible Shareholder Equity Trend Efficiency & Profitability
$25,000.0 35.0%
30.0%
$20,000.0
25.0%
$15,000.0 20.0% CROIC
$35,000.0 $3,000.0
$30,000.0 Last 6 yrs
$2,500.0
$25,000.0 Last 5 yrs
Sales $2,000.0 Last 4 yrs
$20,000.0
Accts Receivable $1,500.0 Last 3 yrs
$15,000.0
Inventory Last 2 yrs
$1,000.0
$10,000.0
Last 1 yr
$5,000.0 $500.0
PPE
$- $-
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM
Company Name ticker
Apple Inc www.oldschoolvalue.com AAPL
10/1/2009 Figures in Millions except per share values
Financial Data
AAPL 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM
Income Statement
Revenue $ 6,134.0 $ 7,983.0 $ 5,363.0 $ 5,742.0 $ 6,207.0 $ 8,279.0 $ 13,931.0 $ 19,315.0 $ 24,006.0 $ 32,479.0 $ 34,562.0
% change from last year 23.2% -48.9% 6.6% 7.5% 25.0% 40.6% 27.9% 19.5% 26.1% 6.0%
COGS $ 4,438.0 $ 5,817.0 $ 4,128.0 $ 4,139.0 $ 4,499.0 $ 6,020.0 $ 9,888.0 $ 13,717.0 $ 15,852.0 $ 21,334.0 $ 22,297.0
COGS (%) 72.4% 72.9% 77.0% 72.1% 72.5% 72.7% 71.0% 71.0% 66.0% 65.7% 64.5%
Gross Profit $ 1,696.0 $ 2,166.0 $ 1,235.0 $ 1,603.0 $ 1,708.0 $ 2,259.0 $ 4,043.0 $ 5,598.0 $ 8,154.0 $ 11,145.0 $ 12,265.0
Gross Profit (%) 27.6% 27.1% 23.0% 27.9% 27.5% 27.3% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 34.3% 35.5%
Operating Expenses
SG&A $ 996.0 $ 1,166.0 $ 1,138.0 $ 1,111.0 $ 1,212.0 $ 1,421.0 $ 1,859.0 $ 2,433.0 $ 2,963.0 $ 3,761.0 $ 4,085.0
SG&A (%) 16.2% 14.6% 21.2% 19.3% 19.5% 17.2% 13.3% 12.6% 12.3% 11.6% 11.8%
R&D $ 314.0 $ 380.0 $ 441.0 $ 447.0 $ 471.0 $ 489.0 $ 534.0 $ 712.0 $ 782.0 $ 1,109.0 $ 1,273.0
R&D (%) 5.1% 4.8% 8.2% 7.8% 7.6% 5.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7%
Other $ 27.0 $ 98.0 $ - $ 28.0 $ 26.0 $ 23.0 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Other (%) 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Operating Income $ 359.0 $ 522.0 $ (344.0) $ 17.0 $ (1.0) $ 326.0 $ 1,650.0 $ 2,453.0 $ 4,409.0 $ 6,275.0 $ 6,907.0
Operating Income (%) 5.9% 6.5% -6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 3.9% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 19.3% 20.0%
Net Income $ 601.0 $ 786.0 $ (25.0) $ 65.0 $ 69.0 $ 276.0 $ 1,335.0 $ 1,989.0 $ 3,496.0 $ 4,834.0 $ 5,175.0
Net Income (%) 9.8% 9.8% -0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 15.0%
Diluted EPS, Cont Ops$ $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ (0.1) $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 1.6 $ 2.3 $ 3.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.7
Diluted EPS$ $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ (0.0) $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 1.6 $ 2.3 $ 3.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.7
Shares 696 720 691 723 726 774 856 877 889 902 904
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash and Equiv $ 1,326.0 $ 1,191.0 $ 2,310.0 $ 2,252.0 $ 3,396.0 $ 2,969.0 $ 3,491.0 $ 6,392.0 $ 9,352.0 $ 11,875.0 $ 5,605.0
Short-Term Investments $ 1,900.0 $ 2,836.0 $ 2,026.0 $ 2,085.0 $ 1,170.0 $ 2,495.0 $ 4,770.0 $ 3,718.0 $ 6,034.0 $ 12,615.0 $ 18,617.0
Accts Rec $ 681.0 $ 953.0 $ 466.0 $ 565.0 $ 766.0 $ 774.0 $ 895.0 $ 1,252.0 $ 1,637.0 $ 2,422.0 $ 2,686.0
% change from last year 28.5% -104.5% 17.5% 26.2% 1.0% 13.5% 28.5% 23.5% 32.4% 9.8%
Inventory $ 20.0 $ 33.0 $ 11.0 $ 45.0 $ 56.0 $ 101.0 $ 165.0 $ 270.0 $ 346.0 $ 509.0 $ 380.0
% change from last year 39.4% -200.0% 75.6% 19.6% 44.6% 38.8% 38.9% 22.0% 32.0% -33.9%
Other Current Assets $ 358.0 $ 414.0 $ 330.0 $ 441.0 $ 499.0 $ 716.0 $ 979.0 $ 2,877.0 $ 4,587.0 $ 7,269.0 $ 7,882.0
Total Current Assets $ 4,285.0 $ 5,427.0 $ 5,143.0 $ 5,388.0 $ 5,887.0 $ 7,055.0 $ 10,300.0 $ 14,509.0 $ 21,956.0 $ 34,690.0 $ 35,170.0
Net PP&E $ 318.0 $ 313.0 $ 564.0 $ 621.0 $ 669.0 $ 707.0 $ 817.0 $ 1,281.0 $ 1,832.0 $ 2,455.0 $ 2,653.0
Intangibles $ - $ - $ - $ 119.0 $ 109.0 $ 97.0 $ 96.0 $ 177.0 $ 337.0 $ 492.0 $ 466.0
Other Long-Term Assets $ 558.0 $ 1,063.0 $ 314.0 $ 170.0 $ 150.0 $ 191.0 $ 338.0 $ 1,238.0 $ 1,222.0 $ 1,935.0 $ 9,851.0
Total Assets $ 5,161.0 $ 6,803.0 $ 6,021.0 $ 6,298.0 $ 6,815.0 $ 8,050.0 $ 11,551.0 $ 17,205.0 $ 25,347.0 $ 39,572.0 $ 48,140.0
Total Current Liabilities $ 1,549.0 $ 1,933.0 $ 1,518.0 $ 1,658.0 $ 2,357.0 $ 2,680.0 $ 3,484.0 $ 6,471.0 $ 9,299.0 $ 14,092.0 $ 16,661.0
Long-Term Debt $ 300.0 $ 300.0 $ 317.0 $ 316.0 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Other Long-Term
Liabilities $ 208.0 $ 463.0 $ 266.0 $ 229.0 $ 235.0 $ 294.0 $ 601.0 $ 750.0 $ 1,516.0 $ 4,450.0 $ 5,591.0
Total Liabilities $ 2,057.0 $ 2,696.0 $ 2,101.0 $ 2,203.0 $ 2,592.0 $ 2,974.0 $ 4,085.0 $ 7,221.0 $ 10,815.0 $ 18,542.0 $ 22,252.0
Total Equity $ 3,104.0 $ 4,107.0 $ 3,920.0 $ 4,095.0 $ 4,223.0 $ 5,076.0 $ 7,466.0 $ 9,984.0 $ 14,532.0 $ 21,030.0 $ 25,888.0
Total Liabilities & Equity $ 5,161.0 $ 6,803.0 $ 6,021.0 $ 6,298.0 $ 6,815.0 $ 8,050.0 $ 11,551.0 $ 17,205.0 $ 25,347.0 $ 39,572.0 $ 48,140.0
Cash from Operations $ 798.0 $ 826.0 $ 185.0 $ 89.0 $ 289.0 $ 934.0 $ 2,535.0 $ 2,220.0 $ 5,470.0 $ 9,596.0 $ 11,344.0
Cash from Investing $ (964.0) $ (930.0) $ 892.0 $ (252.0) $ 828.0 $ (1,488.0) $ (2,556.0) $ 357.0 $ (3,249.0) $ (8,189.0) $ (15,656.0)
Cash from Financing $ 11.0 $ (31.0) $ 42.0 $ 105.0 $ 27.0 $ 127.0 $ 543.0 $ 324.0 $ 739.0 $ 1,116.0 $ 544.0
Currency Adj $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Change in Cash $ (155.0) $ (135.0) $ 1,119.0 $ (58.0) $ 1,144.0 $ (427.0) $ 522.0 $ 2,901.0 $ 2,960.0 $ 2,523.0 $ (3,768.0)
Free Cash Flow $ 639.0 $ 763.0 $ (155.0) $ 9.0 $ 18.0 $ 250.0 $ 1,254.0 $ 1,557.0 $ 3,078.0 $ 4,216.0 $ 4,727.0
Book Value Per Share $ 4.46 $ 5.70 $ 5.67 $ 5.66 $ 5.82 $ 6.56 $ 8.72 $ 11.38 $ 16.35 $ 23.31 $ 28.64
Company Name ticker
Apple Inc AAPL
10/1/2009 User Growth www.oldschoolvalue.com Figures in Millions except per share values
20.00%
Desired MOS Growth Discount % Price Share Value Buy under Actual D/C % 52Wk High 52Wk Low
User Input Params
50% 20.0% 9.0% $ 185.35 $ 161.07 $ 80.53 0% $188.90 $78.20
Financial Data
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Income Sheet Data
Revenue $ 6,134.0 $ 7,983.0 $ 5,363.0 $ 5,742.0 $ 6,207.0 $ 8,279.0 $ 13,931.0 $ 19,315.0 $ 24,006.0 $ 32,479.0
Gross Profit $ 1,696.0 $ 2,166.0 $ 1,235.0 $ 1,603.0 $ 1,708.0 $ 2,259.0 $ 4,043.0 $ 5,598.0 $ 8,154.0 $ 11,145.0
Operating Income $ 359.0 $ 522.0 $ (344.0) $ 17.0 $ (1.0) $ 326.0 $ 1,650.0 $ 2,453.0 $ 4,409.0 $ 6,275.0
Net Income $ 601.0 $ 786.0 $ (25.0) $ 65.0 $ 69.0 $ 276.0 $ 1,335.0 $ 1,989.0 $ 3,496.0 $ 4,834.0
Diluted EPS $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ (0.0) $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 1.6 $ 2.3 $ 3.9 $ 5.4
Margins
Gross Margin 27.65% 27.13% 23.03% 27.92% 27.52% 27.29% 29.02% 28.98% 33.97% 34.31%
Operating Margin 5.85% 6.54% -6.41% 0.30% -0.02% 3.94% 11.84% 12.70% 18.37% 19.32%
Net Margin 9.80% 9.85% -0.47% 1.13% 1.11% 3.33% 9.58% 10.30% 14.56% 14.88%
Current Assets>1.5 times 276.6% 280.8% 338.8% 325.0% 249.8% 263.2% 295.6% 224.2% 236.1% 246.2%
Debt Related
Debt to Equity 66.3% 65.6% 53.6% 53.8% 61.4% 58.6% 54.7% 72.3% 74.4% 88.2%
Capitalization Ratio 8.8% 6.8% 7.5% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FCF to Debt 31.1% 28.3% -7.4% 0.4% 0.7% 8.4% 30.7% 21.6% 28.5% 22.7%
Multi-Year Performance
2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 Median
Shareholder Equity 36.3% 42.5% 33.6% 41.8% 40.7% 33.8% 40.3% 38.8% 44.7% 40.3%
Free Cash Flow 261.6% 102.6% 342.3% 130.9% 49.8% 734.7% 149.6% 56.7% 64.6% 130.9%
CROIC 14.7% 15.7% 9.7% 15.2% 16.3% 4.7% 14.7% 15.7% 16.9% 15.2%
FCF/Sales 8.1% 9.0% 5.5% 8.5% 10.9% 3.0% 8.1% 9.0% 12.8% 8.5%
ROA 13.6% 13.8% 8.7% 13.7% 14.4% 3.7% 13.6% 13.8% 14.9% 13.7%
ROE 21.3% 22.8% 13.6% 22.0% 25.0% 5.9% 21.3% 22.8% 27.2% 22.0%
Revenue Growth 40.2% 40.7% 46.0% 42.6% 32.6% 49.8% 52.7% 31.3% 29.7% 40.7%
Gross Margin 29.0% 29.0% 28.2% 29.0% 31.5% 27.5% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 29.0%
Operating Margin 11.8% 12.7% 7.9% 12.3% 15.5% 3.9% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 12.3%
Net Margin 9.6% 10.3% 6.5% 9.9% 12.4% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 9.9%
Earnings Growth 150.4% 96.4% 183.1% 121.8% 50.9% 295.0% 151.1% 58.7% 53.7% 121.8%
Cash from Ops Growth 108.6% 79.0% 97.3% 80.3% 55.8% 196.2% 54.2% 46.9% 107.9% 80.3%
Company Valuation Free Cash Flow and Tangible Shareholder Equity Trend
Total Value $ 143,948 $25,000.0
$20,538.0
FCF Shareholder Equity
Shares Outstanding 893.71 893.71
$20,000.0
Per Share Value $ 161.07 $14,195.0
Margin of Safety 50% $15,000.0
$9,807.0
Purchase Price $ 80.53 $7,370.0
$10,000.0
Current Price $ 185.35 $4,979.0 $4,216.0
$3,104.0 $4,107.0 $3,920.0 $3,976.0 $4,114.0 $3,078.0
Actual Discount 0% $5,000.0
$639.0 $763.0 $(155.0) $9.0 $1,254.0 $1,557.0
$18.0 $250.0
Enterprise Value $ 141,840.00
$-
Enterprise Value/EBITDA 18.859
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$(5,000.0)
Multi-Year Performance Graph
400.0%
Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Earnings Growth ROA ROE
350.0%
5.9%
3.7%
300.0%
250.0%
13.6%
21.3% 8.7% 21.3%
13.6% 13.6%
200.0% 22.0%
13.7% 295.0%
22.8%
150.0% 13.8% 27.2%
183.1% 25.0% 22.8%
150.4% 151.1% 14.9%
121.8% 14.4% 13.8%
100.0% 96.4% 53.7%
50.9% 58.7%
12.4% 14.6%
50.0% 9.6% 10.3% 9.9% 9.6% 10.3%
6.5% 15.5% 18.4%
11.8% 12.7% 7.9% 12.3% 3.3%
3.9% 11.8% 12.7%
29.0% 29.0% 28.2% 29.0% 31.5% 27.5% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0%
0.0%
2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008
Margin Percentages
40.00%
33.97% 34.31%
35.00%
27.65% 27.92% 29.02% 28.98%
30.00% 27.13% 27.52% 27.29%
23.03%
25.00% Gross Margin
18.37% 19.32%
Operating Margin
20.00% 14.88%
14.56%
11.84% 12.70% Net Margin
15.00% 9.80% 9.85% 10.30%
9.58%
10.00% 5.85% 6.54%
3.94%
3.33%
5.00% 1.13%
0.30% 1.11%
-0.02%
-0.47%
0.00%
-6.41%
-5.00% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-10.00%
35.0% 100.0%
CROIC FCF/Sales ROA ROE Debt to Equity Capitalization Ratio FCF to Debt
30.0%
80.0%
25.0%
60.0%
20.0%
15.0% 40.0%
10.0%
20.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-5.0% -20.0%
-10.0%
$40,000.0
Sales Accts Receivable Inventory
$35,000.0
$30,000.0
$25,000.0
$20,000.0
$15,000.0
$10,000.0
$5,000.0
$-
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM
Company Name ticker
Apple Inc www.oldschoolvalue.com AAPL
10/1/2009 Figures in Millions except per share values
Desired MOS Growth Discount % Price Share Value Buy under Actual D/C % 52Wk High 52Wk Low
50% 20.0% 9% $ 185.35 $ 161.07 $ 80.53 0% $ 188.90 $ 78.20
200
150
100
50
0
1/21/2003 7/21/2003 1/21/2004 7/21/2004 1/21/2005 7/21/2005 1/21/2006 7/21/2006 1/21/2007 7/21/2007 1/21/2008 7/21/2008 1/21/2009 7/21/2009
-50
Company Name ticker
Apple Inc AAPL
10/1/2009 User Growth Figures in Millions except per share values
30.00% www.oldschoolvalue.com
Desired MOS Growth Price Actual DC% Share Value Buy under P/B Ratio Net Net Working Capital 9
User Input Params
66% 30.0% $ 183.62 0% $ 102.87 $ 34.97 7.95 $ 4.67
Earnings
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ 0.90 $ 1.09 $ (0.04) $ 0.09 $ 0.10 $ 0.36 $ 1.56 $ 2.27 $ 3.93 $ 5.36
Diluted EPS
2009 2010 2011 2012
$ 2.99 $ 3.92 $ 5.13 $ 5.56
Income Statement 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 TTM User Input
Sales $ 8,279 $ 13,931 $ 19,315 $ 24,006 $ 32,479 $7,895.0 $ 10,167.0 $ 8,163.0 $ 8,337.0 $ 34,562.0
EBIT $ 383.0 $ 1,815.0 $ 2,818.0 $ 5,008.0 $ 6,895.0 $1,582.0 $2,284.0 $1,730.0 $1,732.0
$ 7,328.0
EBIT Margin 4.6% 13.0% 14.6% 20.9% 21.2% 20.0% 22.5% 21.2% 20.8% 21.2%
EBIT at user defined % of sales $ -
EBIT User Defined % Margin 4.6% 13.0% 14.6% 20.9% 21.2% 20.0% 22.5% 21.2% 20.8% 21.2%
Normalized EBITDA $ 486.0 $ 1,822.0 $ 2,678.0 $ 4,726.0 $ 6,794.0 $1,576.0 $ 2,284.0 $ 1,839.0 $ 1,848.0 $ 7,547.0
Normalized EBIT $ 336.0 $ 1,643.0 $ 2,453.0 $ 4,409.0 $ 6,275.0 $1,442.0 $ 2,126.0 $ 1,667.0 $ 1,672.0 $ 6,907.0
SG&A $ 500.5 $ 652.4 $ 851.6 $ 1,037.1 $ 1,316.4 $349.7 $ 349.7 $ 381.9 $ 344.8 $ 1,425.9 35%
R&D $ 122.8 $ 133.8 $ 178.0 $ 195.5 $ 277.3 $74.5 $ 74.5 $ 78.8 $ 79.8 $ 307.5
Adjusted EBIT $ 1,006.3 $ 2,601.2 $ 3,847.6 $ 6,240.6 $ 8,488.6 $2,006.2 $ 2,708.2 $ 2,190.6 $ 2,156.5 $ 9,061.4
Adjusted EBIT % 12.2% 18.7% 19.9% 26.0% 26.1% 25.4% 26.6% 26.8% 25.9% 26.2%
Income Before Tax $ 370.0 $ 1,808.0 $ 2,818.0 $ 5,008.0 $ 6,895.0 $1,582.0 $ 2,284.0 $ 1,730.0 $ 1,732.0 $ 7,328.0
Income Tax - Total $ 104.0 $ 480.0 $ 829.0 $ 1,512.0 $ 2,061.0 $446.0 $ 679.0 $ 525.0 $ 503.0 $ 2,153.0
Tax Rate 28.1% 26.5% 29.4% 30.2% 29.9% 28.2% 29.7% 30.3% 29.0% 29.4%
Adjusted Earnings After tax $ 723.4 $ 1,910.6 $ 2,715.7 $ 4,356.4 $ 5,951.3 $1,440.6 $ 1,903.06 $ 1,525.82 $ 1,530.22 $ 6,399.7
Depreciation & Amortization $ 150.0 $ 179.0 $ 225.0 $ 317.0 $ 519.0 $134.0 $ 158.0 $ 172.0 $ 176.0 $ 640.0
Add user defined % of D&A $ 30.0 $ 35.8 $ 45.0 $ 63.4 $ 103.8 $26.8 $ 31.6 $ 34.4 $ 35.2 $ 128.0
Income as Adjusted $ 753.4 $ 1,946.4 $ 2,760.7 $ 4,419.8 $ 6,055.1 $1,467.4 $ 1,934.7 $ 1,560.2 $ 1,565.4 $ 6,527.7
Income as Adjusted % 9.1% 14.0% 14.3% 18.4% 18.6% $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 18.9%
Operating Income as Reported $ 326.0 $ 1,650.0 $ 2,453.0 $ 4,409.0 $ 6,275.0 $1,442.0 $ 2,126.0 $ 1,667.0 $ 1,672.0 $ 6,907.0
2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-TTM Normalized Adjusted Income Possible Values for Override Box
158.3% 41.8% 60.1% 37.0% 7.8% Normalized Income $ 3,692.9
$ 1,349.9 $ 2,353.5 $ 3,590.2 $ 5,237.4 $ 6,291.4 Avg Adj. Income 5 yrs $ 3,187.1
TTM Adjusted Income $ 6,527.7
$3,692.9
2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-TTM
91.4% 50.7% 48.1% 21.5% EPV Data
Multiyear Timeframe Adjusted $ 1,820.2 $ 3,042.3 $ 4,411.9 $ 5,667.5 Cost of Capital 9%
Income & Growth Normalized Adjusted Income $ 3,692.9
2004-2007 2005-2008 2006-TTM Normal. Adj. Income Growth Average Maintenance Capex $ 330.5
31.4% 29.9% 13.9% 39.4% Interest Bearing Debt $ -
$ 2,470.1 $ 3,795.5 $ 4,940.8 1% of sales $ 345.62
Cash & Equiv $ 24,222
2004-2008 2005-TTM Cash - Debt $ 23,876.38
68.4% 35.3% Shares 894
$ 3,187.1 $ 4,341.9
+Cash-Debt
Cost of Capital Rates EPV Per Share Adjustment Per Share
5% $ 67,246.7 $ 75.24 $ 91,123.1 $ 101.96
7% $ 48,033.4 $ 53.75 $ 71,909.8 $ 80.46
9% $ 37,359.3 $ 41.80 $ 61,235.7 $ 68.52
11% $ 30,566.7 $ 34.20 $ 54,443.1 $ 60.92
13% $ 25,864.1 $ 28.94 $ 49,740.5 $ 55.66
Company Name ticker
Apple Inc AAPL
10/1/2009 www.oldschoolvalue.com
AAPL MSFT IBM HPQ PALM RIMM Industry Ranking
Stock Price 185.35 24.95 118.66 46.33 16.92 67.81 NA NA
Market Cap (millions) 166,040 222,760 155,550 109,850 2,410 38,580 NA NA
52-Week High 188.90 27.47 122.88 48.00 $18.09 Error NA NA
52-Week Low 78.20 14.87 69.50 25.39 1.14 Error NA NA
% off 52-Week Low 137.0% 73.0% 72.1% 85.9% 1431.6% #VALUE! NA NA
Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio (TTM) 32.4 15.88 12.79 15.9 0 19.07 17.84 1
Price to Sales (TTM) 4.8 3.93 1.61 0.96 5.69 2.92 0.62 2
Price to Book (MRQ) 6.41 5.79 10.19 2.71 0 5.49 2.38 2
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 6.56 9.08 0 82.55 0 6.93 4.15 4
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 28.56 13.4 8.8 9.36 0 16.81 10.01 1
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 16.31 20.06 12.44 12.9 0 86.02 30.92 3
Enterprise Value/Revenue (TTM) 4.1 3.51 1.79 0.99 6.1 Error NA NA
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (TTM) 18.862 8.812 7.468 7.481 -8.445 Error NA NA
Dividends
Dividend Yield NA 2.01 1.84 0.68 NA NA 0.01
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 0 3.96 1.27 0.91 0 0 1.71 4
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 0 26.58 24.7 0 0 0 7.28 3
Payout Ratio (TTM) 0 31.71 21.53 10.46 0 0 29.02 4
Growth Rates
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 11.7 -17.29 -13.31 -2.07 -81.46 36.8 -4.99 2
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 4.8 3.93 1.61 0.96 5.69 2.92 0.62 2
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 39.23 9.67 3.06 10.13 -4.97 79.45 29.2 2
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 13.89 -25.55 17.61 -15.77 -201.62 -3.81 -102.49 2
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 11.88 -13.36 15.54 -7.71 -427.44 15.67 0 3
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 124.7 16.65 18.93 31.39 0 99.92 11.65 1
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 48.87 22.98 -0.35 8.43 18.42 94.92 21.1 2
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio (MRQ) 2.09 1.8 1.15 1.03 0.58 2.14 1.45 2
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.11 1.82 1.22 1.17 0.62 2.41 1.85 2
LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0 9.47 135.68 33.45 0 0 18.24 4
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0 14.53 190.98 41.36 0 0 30.11 4
Profitability
Gross Margin (TTM) 35.49 79.2 45.14 23.35 13.65 43.19 8.35 4
Gross Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 31.83 81.06 41.09 24 31.69 49.69 18.85 4
EBITD Margin (TTM) 21.84 37.94 21.79 12.23 -83.11 22.52 0 3
EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 16.82 38.98 17.89 9.65 -1.13 27.58 7.92 4
Operating Margin (TTM) 19.98 33.56 16.48 8.27 -90 20.58 2.58 3
Operating Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 15.4 36.03 12.54 6.92 -3.19 24.25 5.34 3
Pre-Tax Margin (TTM) 21.2 33.92 17.57 7.69 -102.25 21.03 2.67 2
Pre-Tax Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 17.24 38.82 14.01 7.19 -3.04 25.58 5.87 3
Net Profit Margin (TTM) 14.97 24.93 13 6.25 -195.37 15.41 2 3
Net Profit Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 12.15 28.01 9.9 5.76 -5.86 18.69 4.09 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets (TTM) 12.96 19.34 11.26 7.08 -87.72 25.23 3.45 3
Return On Assets - 5 Yr. Avg. 13.96 19.63 8.71 6.62 -6.44 23.7 6.9 3
Return On Investment (TTM) 19.18 31.08 17.64 11.88 -204.16 33.6 7.23 3
Return On Investment - 5 Yr Avg 21.57 28.63 13.69 11.36 -9.79 30.42 13.65 3
Return On Equity (TTM) 22.74 38.42 57.96 18.3 0 34.07 8.38 4
Return On Equity - 5 Yr. Avg. 24 33.44 33.46 14.59 -14.6 30.99 14.6 4
Efficiency
Revenue/Employee (TTM) 1080063 628355 244112 365125 464914 1030820 8635093 NA
Net Income/Employee (TTM) 161719 156656 31745 22816 -908304 158844 169986 NA
Receivable Turnover (TTM) 16.12 4.72 3.81 6.97 4 6.39 5.72 NA
Inventory Turnover (TTM) 48.21 14.28 19.04 12.82 11.98 13.81 8.77 NA
Asset Turnover (TTM) 0.87 0.78 0.87 1.13 0.45 1.64 1.28 3
Company Name ticker
Apple Inc www.oldschoolvalue.com AAPL
10/1/2009 Figures in Millions except per share values
3.3% 5470.0
1.1% 1.1%
2220.0 2535.0
934.0 289.0 826.0 798.0
89.0 185.0
-0.5%
TTM 2008/09 2007/09 2006/09 2005/09 2004/09 2003/09 2002/09 2001/09 2000/09 1999/09 TTM 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12
15.0% 14.9% 14.6% 10.3% 9.6% 3.3% 1.1% 1.1% -0.5% 9.8% 9.8% 11344.0 9596.0 5470.0 2220.0 2535.0 934.0 289.0 89.0 185.0 826.0 798.0
% Change 2.2% 41.4% 7.5% 187.5% 199.9% -1.8% 342.8% -104.7% 0.5% -- % Change 75.4% 146.4% -12.4% 171.4% 223.2% 224.7% -51.9% -77.6% 3.5% --
Magic Formula Investing -- Return on Capital Magic Formula Investing -- Earnings Yield
28.1% 25.0% 27.4% 23.5% 25.0%
20.1%
16.2% 15.8%
13.3% 11.0%
8.1% 5.3% 4.7% 5.0% 5.2%
3.2% 4.1% 3.2%
2.6% 3.3%
-4.7% -6.6%
Now 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 Now 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12
28.1% 25.0% 27.4% 23.5% 20.1% 8.1% 2.6% 3.3% -4.7% 16.2% 13.3% 5.3% 11.0% 3.2% 4.7% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2% 15.8% -6.6% 25.0% 5.2%
% Change -8.8% 16.8% 16.7% 149.2% 206.7% -20.3% 170.2% -129.1% 22.1% -- % Change 241.0% -31.0% -7.3% 22.4% 26.9% -79.5% 340.1% -126.3% 380.5% --
3.4%
1.0% 1.0%
5.4%
1.6% 1.6%
-0.6% 0.0%
2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12
10.7% 12.2% 13.8% 11.6% 11.6% 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% -0.6% 11.6% 11.6% 20.0% 23.0% 24.1% 19.9% 17.9% 5.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 19.5% 20.3%
% Change -11.6% 19.0% 0.0% 241.2% 240.0% 0.0% 266.7% -105.2% 0.0% -- % Change -4.6% 21.1% 11.2% 231.5% 237.5% 0.0% #DIV/0! -100.0% -3.9% --
2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12
2.1 2.5 2.4 2.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 3.2 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.2 3.4 2.8 2.8
% Change 4.3% 5.3% -24.2% 12.3% 5.4% -23.1% -4.1% 20.7% 1.5% -- % Change 4.4% 5.6% -24.4% 12.1% 4.9% -23.2% -4.7% 21.2% 1.3% --
Company Name ticker
Apple Inc AAPL
10/1/2009 www.oldschoolvalue.com Figures in Millions except per share values
Margins, Profit and Growth Criteria over 5yrs Value Points User Points
Median Revenue growth 10% 40.7% 2
Median Gross Margin 30% 29.0% 0
Median Operating Margin 15% 12.3% 0
Median Net Margin 10% 9.9% 0
Median EPS growth 10% 121.8% 2
Business and Management Performance Criteria over 5yrs Value Points User Points
Cash growth from Operations 15% 80.3% 2
CROIC is postive and capable of paying off financing 13% 15.2% 1
Median FCF growth positive and consistent 10% 130.9% 2
Median FCF/Sales 7% 8.5% 1
Consistent ROE (manually check) Consistent over 10yrs N/A N/A
Consistent ROA (manually check) Consistent over 10yrs N/A N/A
Apple Inc.designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, portable digital music players, and mobile communication devices and
sells a variety of related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions. The Company sells its products worldwide through its
online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, and third-party wholesalers, resellers, and value-added resellers. In addition, the
Company sells a variety of third-party Macintosh (Mac), iPod and iPhone compatible products, including application software, printers,
storage devices, speakers, headphones, and various other accessories and peripherals through its online and retail stores, , and digital
content through the iTunes Store. It sells to consumer, small and mid-sized business (SMB), education, enterprise, government, and creative
customers.
Low Risk High Growth Under Valued Well Managed Good Financial Health Strong Moat
2.5 5.0 0.0 4.5 5.0 4.0
2.5 5.0 4.5 5.0 4.0
Low Risk
5.0
4.0
3.0
Strong Moat High Growth
2.0
1.0
0.0
Well Managed