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1b) Discuss how cost-benefit analysis could be applied in the case of the building of the Three Gorges Dam

(12m) L1 Knowledge about cost-benefit analysis - evaluate projects based on SC & SB (include externalities) - quantify O.C to society of many possible outcomes of an economic decision - apply in public projects (eg. Airports, rail projects, parks) which affect society far into future - different from private projects that consider PC & PB but ignore externalities - take into account both private and external costs and benefits L2 CBA steps + L3 Evaluation 1. Idenitification of all relevant costs and benefits - Private cost: Cost of construction of Three Gorges Dam, worker safety when at work - Private benefits: Profits earn after construction, stimulate economics growth, power generation, flood control - External cost: noise pollution, land pollution, loss of habitat of wildlife, affect people living and force to relocate - External benefits: tourism in the country (Yangtze River), international recognition, job opportunites (need to hire to watch over dam) Evaluation: - may not cover everyone affected cannot include all stakeholders some groups might be left out of decision - there are potential stakeholders who stand to be positively or negatively affected by the decision 2. Quantifying into monetary value - use shadow prices (estimated price) - eg: loss of countryside and have to relocate, what value to place on (1.5 million affected people value annual loss of countryside at RM100 then cost = RM 1.5 x 10^8) Evaluation: - difficult to put monetary value to C&B especially externalities which are intangible - doubts to ascertain the value of loss of home/countryside 3. Forecast future cost and benefits - employ statistical forecasting techniques to estimate costs and benefits of Three Gorges Dam over many years - able to plan properly and budget on right amount Evaluation: - difficult to quantify, accuracy of calculation probability of future C&B occurring is questionable because different generations different value systems

4. Decision making - if construction of Three Gorges Dam SB>SC (which is +net benefits), government should undertake project as it benefits the society and everyone gains benefits. Increase society welfare - Evaluation: pressure groups may lobby for public to reject, to conciliate government abandon it - if construction SC>SB (+net cost) government should reject the project because it will not bring much benefits to the society but only profit the private firms. - Evaluation: politicians may go ahead to retain political power and earn profits (profitable) L4 Conclusion - aid for decision making but not replacement - despite its limitation, still best tool available because evaluate projects based on true cost to society as it includes all externalities

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